Friday, November 29, 2013

December the Best Month?

DOW’S BEST MONTH OF THE YEAR? DECEMBER (CNBC)
"…Since the 1900s, December is the best month for the Dow, and second-best month for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Historically, all three indexes have gained on average between 1 and 2 percent, respectively…The trend holds in recent times as well. In the past 20 years, the S&P finished positive in December 80 percent of the time,”  Full story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101235707

December the best month – I don’t think that will be repeated this year.

MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P was up about 0.3% all day, but tanked in the last hour of trading to finish down 0.1% (1pt) to 1806 (rounded) on holiday volume (30% below the norm for the month). 
VIX was up 6% to 13.70, all in the final hour. 

CORRECTION THOUGHTS
Last hour trading (when the pros trade) has fallen off a cliff starting 21 November, but that could be just an effect of the Holiday.  It could also predict another top.  The S&P 500 is now 9.4% above its 200-dMA and it was 9.8% about 2-weeks ago.  Those levels suggest a correction.  The index is at its upper trend line too. 

MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing fell to 52% at the close Friday.  (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) 

New-highs outpaced new-lows Friday, leaving the spread (new-hi minus new-low) at +194 (it was +154 Wednesday).  The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus 3.  In other words over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased by 3 each day.

This trend following indicator is neutral on the market in the short term.



 
 
 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but in 2013 (so far), if I had been buying the positive ratings and selling negative ratings I would have under-performed a buy-and-hold strategy.

NTSM ANALYSIS
Sentiment is EXTREME negative at 74%-bulls for the 5-day indicator.  (Three out of four investors in Rydex/Guggenheim funds I track are betting long.)  Overall, NTSM is neutral.
 
 
 
 
(I am mostly out of the market already.)

MY INVESTED POSITION (NO CHANGE)
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540).  The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April.  (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am now under-performing my own system by about 6%!)  I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested.  If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments.  It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market goes up.  No system is perfect.

I still lean toward getting back in, after a pullback, to speculate on a final ride to the top.  NTSM did give several buy signals over the weeks of 14 and 21 Oct, but the market just looks too frothy to rush back in…we’ll see if the market will pullback so I can join the insanity.  If not, cash is fine.

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Durable Orders Down…Jobless Claims Down…Leading Indicators up…Sentiment: “To infinity and Beyond!”

JOBLESS CLAIMS UNEXPECTEDLY FALL (Bloomberg)
Jobless claims  in the week ended Nov. 23 declined 10,000 to 316,000, the fewest in two months, the Labor Department said today in Washington…“The decline in jobless claims is encouraging,” Michelle Meyer, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York, said before the report. “The challenge has been to see a ramp up in hiring. Corporations have remained quite cautious.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-27/jobless-claims-in-u-s-unexpectedly-fall-to-lowest-in-two-months.html

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS FALL (Reuters)
“The Commerce Department said on Wednesday non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 1.2 percent last month.  It was the second month of declines after orders for these so-called core capital goods fell 1.4 percent in September…The unexpected drop in these orders suggested some ebbing in the manufacturing sector's recently found strength. It could also be an indication that a 16-day partial government shutdown last month hurt business confidence.”  Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/27/us-usa-economy-durables-idUSBRE9AQ0NM20131127

LEADING INDICATORS UP – FASTER GROWTH AHEAD
“The leading economic index rose 0.2% in October, following even large gains of 0.9% in September and 0.7% in August, the nonprofit Conference Board said Wednesday.… seven of the 10 indicators tracked by the board increased.  ‘The recent increase in the index supports our forecast that the U.S. economy is poised to grow somewhat faster at 2.3% in 2014 compared to 1.6% in 2013,’ said Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis at the board.”  Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/leading-indicators-point-to-faster-us-growth-2013-11-27

LOW RATES FOR LONGER – FED THEME FOR 2014 (Reuters) –
“The Fed under (Fed Chair nominee) Janet Yellen will be committed to a very low federal funds rate for several more years," said Jake Lowery, Treasury trader and portfolio manager for global interest rates at ING U.S. Investment Management... "That commitment to low rates is much more important than the precise timing of tapering," Lowery said, referring to potential reductions in the Fed's large-scale purchases of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.”  Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/25/us-usa-rates-lower-analysis-idUSBRE9AO0XK20131125

I have seen this view expressed by many.  I remain skeptical.  QE keeps longer term interest rates lower.  Rising long term rates should have consequences for the economy, but I am not an economist.   For detailed discussions of QE…see the following: 

QE?
Here’s a good site for QE analysis from Pragmatic Capitalism at…
http://pragcap.com/understanding-quantitative-easing

OBAMACARE IMPACT – LESS JOB GROWTH THAN ANYONE THINKS
Mish Shedlock of Global Economic Trend Analysis has a detailed analysis of the latest jobs data.  He is suspicious that discrepancies in the employment data (specifically differences in the Household and Establishment surveys) are distorting the jobs picture.  See his blog at…
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/11/jobs-vs-employment-analysis-suggests.html

SENTIMENT – HOLY WOW!
I track Sentiment by calculating Bulls/(Bulls+Bears) using a 5-day-moving-average of the daily-assets, bet long or short, in selected Rydex/Guggenheim funds.  This gives a %-Bulls value for sentiment.  The funds I currently use were not around during the dot.com bubble.  For comparison purposes, I have looked at funds bet long and short in 2-funds that did exist in 2000 and still exist today. Those are the “NASDAQ-100® - Inv Class” fund and the “Inverse NASDAQ-100® Strategy - Inv Class”.  Calculating a 5-day %-Bulls value gives the following values at prior major tops:

3/24/2000 1st Major Top:            97%-Bulls
7/17/2007 1st Major Top:            89%-Bulls
11/26/2013 (now):                      99%-Bulls

By this measure, sentiment has exceeded the prior major tops in both the dot.com Bubble and the Financial Crisis.  Holy wow!

MARKET REPORT
Wednesday, the S&P finished up 0.3% to 1807 (rounded) on low volume (30% below the norm for the month). 
VIX was up 1% to 12.95.

MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing remained to 54% at the close Wednesday.  (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) 

New-highs outpaced new-lows Wednesday, leaving the spread (new-hi minus new-low) at +154 (it was +179 Tuesday).  The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was plus 3.  In other words over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 3 each day.

Advancing volume is trending down slightly, so this trend following indicator is neutral on the market in the short term.


 
 
 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but in 2013 (so far), if I had been buying the positive ratings and selling negative ratings I would have under-performed a buy-and-hold strategy.

NTSM ANALYSIS
Sentiment is EXTREME negative at 75%-bulls for the 5-day indicator.  (Three out of four investors in Rydex/Guggenheim funds I track are betting long.)  Overall, NTSM is neutral.






(I am mostly out of the market already.)

MY INVESTED POSITION (NO CHANGE)
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540).  The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April.  (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)  I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested.  If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments.  It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market goes up.  No system is perfect.

I still lean toward getting back in, after a pullback, to speculate on a final ride to the top.  NTSM did give several buy signals over the weeks of 14 and 21 Oct, but the market just looks too frothy to rush back in…we’ll see if the market will pullback so I can join the insanity.  If not, cash is fine. 

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP Suggests Correction?

CORPORATE PROFITS AT RECORD HIGHS (Hussman)
The following chart from the St Louis Fed indicates that Corporate Profits are at an all time high relative to GDP.  This is an anomaly that can’t last and shows an absolute tendency for mean reversion.
   



John Hussman approaches this as an economist and says that high corporate profits are the direct result of low savings by households (debt) and the Government (deficits)….[Regarding the implications for the stock market]…”We can demonstrate in a century of evidence that…profit margins are mean-reverting and inversely related to subsequent earnings growth…John Hussman, PhD, Weekly Market Commentary for 25 November 2013 from Hussman Funds at... 
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/

John Hussman’s analysis contained in his 25 November 2013 Weekly Market Commentary, “An Open Letter to the FOMC” notes that Corporate Profits as a percentage of GDP are at an all-time high and must revert to the mean.  A reversion to the mean predicts corporate earnings will decline.

This naturally raises the question, “How have declines in this statistic affected the stock market in the past?”  Surprisingly, the answer isn’t as clear as I expected.  Here is a chart of the S&P 500 and Corporate Profits (as a percent of GDP) from 1964 through April 2013 (most recent data from FRED). 
 
There are many instances when falling profits didn’t result in market declines; inexplicably, the S&P 500 went up – sometimes a lot!

Most recently, during the dot.com era profits were falling from 1997 to 2000, but the S&P 500 advanced dramatically.  We can discount the dot.com era, because investors were sure that “profits-didn’t-matter”.   (The Fed burst the dot.com bubble with repeated rate hikes starting about 6-months before the top.)

Another case where profits fell while the S&P advanced was from 1978 thru 1985.  During that period, profits as a %-of GDP were cut by more than half while the S&P 500 more than doubled.  That was during the late-stages of the 1966-1982 bear market and the beginning of the secular bull that lasted from 1982 until the dot.com bust in 2000.  I plotted another chart (below) focusing on the 1966-1985 period.  

 
If anything, one can conclude from the above chart that the stock market responds to more than just the profit data.  One obvious missing piece is valuation.  

The Cyclically adjusted PE (PE10) was near all-time lows in the late 70’s (it had only been lower in the 1920’s and 1930’s) and it encompasses the end of the 1966-1982 bear and the beginning of the 1982-2000 Bull market.  One can surmise that investors anticipated improving economic conditions and, with stock prices at generational lows, began bidding up stock prices in the late 70’s.  This has little in common with current conditions since PE’s based on operating earnings are above average (per FactSet) and the PE10 is now significantly elevated (Hussman et al). Valuations are now at levels associated with the beginning of a bear market rather than its end (dShort.com).

Another point to remember: the “profit” considered in this analysis is “Profit as a percent of GDP”.  If GDP is rising, the “profit as a percent of GDP” number will be falling unless corporate profits are rising at the same or a faster rate than GDP.

To conclude, falling profits as a percent of GDP have generally been a significant issue for the markets, but the lag time (or lead time) has sometimes been years.  My point is simply that if profits start falling now, the market could continue its advance for some time – possibly as long as the Fed continues to prop it up.  – Meade Stith

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN US DECLINES TO 7-MONTH LOW (Bloomberg)
“The Conference Board’s index fell to 70.4 from a revised 72.4 a month earlier that was stronger than initially estimated, the New York-based private research group said today…’The economy just has not performed very well this year and has been disappointing relative to what most people were hoping for and expecting through the course of the year,’ said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC inStamford, Connecticut.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-26/consumer-confidence-index-in-u-s-decreased-to-70-4-in-november.html

MORE ON CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
For details, analysis and charts regarding the decline in consumer confidence see Advisor perspectives at…
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Conference-Board-Consumer-Confidence-Index.php

MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P was up for most of the day, but finished unchanged at 1803 (rounded) on surprisingly high volume (15% above the norm for the month).  I guess all of the traders sold positions late in the day and left town for the holiday.
VIX was up 0.2% to 12.81.

MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing rose to 54% at the close Tuesday.  (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) 

New-highs outpaced new-lows Tuesday, leaving the spread (new-hi minus new-low) at +179 (it was +176 Monday).  The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was plus 3.  In other words over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 3 each day.

Advancing volume is trending down, so this trend following indicator is neutral on the market in the short term.




Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but in 2013 (so far), if I had been buying the positive ratings and selling negative ratings I would have under-performed a buy-and-hold strategy.

NTSM ANALYSIS
Sentiment is EXTREME negative ( Should I say absurd extreme?) at 76%-bulls for the 5-day indicator for the third day ion a row.  (Three out of four investors in Rydex/Guggenheim funds I track are betting long.)  Overall, NTSM is neutral.
(I am mostly out of the market already.)


 
 
 
MY INVESTED POSITION (NO CHANGE)
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540).  The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April.  (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)  I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested.  If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments.  It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market goes up.  No system is perfect.

I still lean toward getting back in, after a pullback, to speculate on a final ride to the top.  NTSM did give several buy signals over the weeks of 14 and 21 Oct, but the market just looks too frothy to rush back in…we’ll see if the market will pullback so I can join the insanity.  If not, cash is fine.

Monday, November 25, 2013

Banks to Charge for Holding Your Money?

US BANKS WARN FED: INTEREST CUT COULD FORCE THEM TO CHARGE DEPOSITORS (Financial Times)
The most recent FED minutes suggested that the Fed was considering lowering the rate paid on bank reserves in order to offset a QE taper.  Banks have now stated that if that happens, the Banks will have to charge depositors to keep their money!  Do these guys (the FED) have a clue?  Article at…
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b1d409d0-5399-11e3-b425-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2lf28bZnv

AVERAGE HEDGE FUND RETURNS 6% THROUGH OCTOBER (ZeroHedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-23/average-hedge-fund-returns-tiny-6-through-october-underperforms-sp-and-mutual-funds-

I have sympathy for them.  The NTSM system returns are about 10% this year.  Aaaarrgghh……

NOTED BEAR THROWS IN THE TOWEL (Global Economic Trend Analysis)
“On November 22, InvestmentWeek reported long-time bear Hugh Hendry threw in the towel.
'I can't look at myself in the mirror': Hendry reveals why he has turned bullish  Speaking at Harrington Cooper's 2013 conference, Hendry said he is no longer fighting the "two-way feedback loop" which is continuing to boost risk assets.

"I can no longer say I am bearish. When markets become parabolic, the people who exist within them are trend followers, because the guys who are qualitative have got taken out. I have been prepared to underperform for the fun of being proved right when markets crash. But that could be in three-and-a-half-years' time…I cannot look at myself in the mirror; everything I have believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends."

[Mish’s comment]…As I stated upfront, avoiding bubbles is incredibly hard to do, and this one has been exceptional. But that is precisely the problem with bubbles.  Hussman points out (and I agree) "The associated 10-year expected nominal total return for the S&P 500 is negative."

Read that sentence again and again until it sinks in. Here is another way of putting it. "10 years from now, the S&P is likely to be lower than it is today". That is how over-valued equities now are.  Yes, Hussman sounds like a broken record. And so do I. But this is one hell of a time to become a trend follower.”  - Mike "Mish" Shedlock.  Full story at…
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/11/hussmans-open-letter-to-fed-problem.html

MARKET REPORT
Monday, the S&P was down 0.1% to 1802 (rounded).
VIX was up 4% to 12.79.

The S&P 500 remains 9.5% above its 200-dMA.  It was 9.8%, 6-trading days ago – that is a level that has been followed by small pullbacks recently.  Historically, pullbacks have been down to the 200-dMA, but not during the QE era. 

MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing dipped slightly to 52% at the close Monday.  (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) 

New-highs outpaced new-lows Monday, leaving the spread (new-hi minus new-low) at +176 (it was +168 Friday).  The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was plus 9.  In other words over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 9 each day.

The 4-measures of Market Internals that I track for this indicator are all positive so this trend following indicator is positive on the market in the short term.




 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but in 2013 (so far), if I had been buying the positive ratings and selling negative ratings I would have under-performed a buy-and-hold strategy.

NTSM ANALYSIS
Sentiment is EXTREME negative ( Should I say absurd extreme?) at 76%-bulls for the 5-day indicator.  (Three out of four investors in Rydex/Guggenheim funds I track are betting long.)  The funds I use weren’t around until after the dotcom bubble, but that is the highest 5-day reading since the dot.com crash and easily beats any 5-day reading in the past 4-years.  The %-bulls was 60% in July of 2007 at the first big top in advance of the 2007 crash, but that was not a valuation crash like the dot.com bubble.

Price and VIX in  indicators turmed positive today, but overall, NTSM is neutral. (I am mostly out of the market already.)




 
MY INVESTED POSITION (NO CHANGE)
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540).  The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April.  (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)  I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested.  If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments.  It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market goes up.  No system is perfect.

I still lean toward getting back in, after a pullback, to speculate on a final ride to the top.  NTSM did give several buy signals over the weeks of 14 and 21 Oct, but the market just looks too frothy to rush back in…we’ll see if the market will pullback so I can join the insanity.  If not, cash is fine.

Friday, November 22, 2013

Yield Curve is OK

The following commentary is an excellent discussion of the yield curve, its definition, interpretation, and the current status.  I’ve just posted the bottom line; but if you have an interest in the yield curve, it’s a good read!

FOLLOW THE CURVE (dShort.com)
The current yield curve is nowhere near inverted…despite the bubble calls. Based on lending standards, the yield curve, and the yield spread, there's no credit bubble here. The business cycle looks healthy to me.” - Ryan Puplava posted at dShort.com, Advisor Perspectives, at…
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Ryan-Puplava-131122-Yield-Curve.php

Recession: My own comparison of S&P 500 prices to the Morgan Stanly Cyclical Index (a basket of stocks sensitive to recession) also shows that investors agree, but there are signs of concern.  Cyclicals have been underperforming the S&P 50 recently, but not enough to worry about.

In the following “sentiment” discussion, Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity senior managing director, says that “Taper” will not cause problems for the market.

‘SENTIMENT IS TOO HIGH,’ STOCK MARKET BULL SAYS (CNBC)
"One of the things I want to address is: People get so wrapped up on whether the market is overvalued, undervalued or fair. That's not relevant," he said. "What's relevant is what changes the direction of the underlying trend in valuations. And when you're in an uptrend in valuations in a nonrecession environment, it's one thing: Fed policy. And Fed policy of tapering does not change the interest expense on existing debt, which is what crushes economic activity because we have so much variable-rate debt."  Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101218344

His view of the high sentiment was that, once again, any pullback would be less than 4%.

We have heard from Hussman and others that the current high corporate profits can’t be sustained and they will fall soon.  Here’s another view…

THE PROFIT DEBATE (dShort.com)
“In the second quarter of 2013…[corporate profit as a % of GDP]…touched 9.9%, the second highest rate on record... Most analyses mistakenly stop there, concluding that margins are unsustainably high and will shortly fall. We need to dig a little deeper, however, to do fair justice to the topic….Today's high after-tax profit margin is due primarily to low interest costs and not high EBIT [earnings before interest and taxes] margins (which are competed away in a capitalist system). Interest costs will likely rise as a percentage of GNP over the course of the next five years. That is to say, economy-wide profit margins should gradually fall as interest rates rise–not collapse as some predict. I write all this to address a topic frequently debated and to lay out a case that the most negative scenario of collapsing margins outside a recession is a low probability event.”  Full story at DShort Advisor Perspectives at…
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Alan-Hartley-131121-The-Profit-Debate.php

Regarding Profits:  We know from FactSet that a high percentage of companies have warned of falling profits.  Keep in mind though, every investor knows that fact and it is already built into stock prices.  So far, the market is not-concerned.

MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P was up 0.5% to 1805 (rounded).
VIX was down 3% to 12.26.

An interesting indicator rarely mentioned is “unchanged volume”.  It is a measure that follows from observation of tops and bottoms.  Tops tend to be rounded and slow to develop.  As a top approaches, more stocks are likely to remain at the same price.  One can track either unchanged issues (the number of stocks that didn’t change price) or the volume of shares traded in unchanged issues.  I prefer the volume associated with unchanged stocks.  Unchanged volume hit an extreme level on 18 November (5-standard deviations above the norm) that has been exceeded only twice in the past 2-years.  On both of those occasions the market dipped about 8% afterward, but necessarily right away.  (For perspective, the unchanged volume on the 18th was about 10-times higher than today. That is one reason I think the market will have a small correction in the coming weeks, perhaps after the Thanksgiving Holiday week. 

In spite of my call for a pullback, I wouldn’t bet against the markets during Thanksgiving week.  The seasonality indicator around holidays is pretty strong.  The markets should be up overall, though, perhaps not by much. (BTW - The elements of the NTSM long-term system are designed to avoid corrections less than 10%, so the NTSM analysis may not generate a sell during small corrections.)

MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing was 53% at the close Thursday.  (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) 

New-highs outpaced new-lows Friday, leaving the spread (new-hi minus new-low) at +168 (it was +83 Thursday).  The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was plus 11.  In other words over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 11 each day.

Still, the 4-measures of Market Internals that I track for this indicator did not agree, (advancing volume was slightly negative) so this trend following indicator is neutral. 


 

 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but in 2013 (so far), if I had been buying the positive ratings and selling negative ratings I would have under-performed a buy-and-hold strategy.

NTSM ANALYSIS
Sentiment is EXTREME negative at 74%-bulls for the 5-day indicator.  All  other NTSM indicators are neutral, but are creeping up. Overall, NTSM is neutral. That is a broken record.



 
 
(I am mostly out of the market already.)

MY INVESTED POSITION (NO CHANGE)
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540).  The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April.  (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)  I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested.  If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments.  It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market goes up.  No system is perfect.

I still lean toward getting back in, after a pullback, to speculate on a final ride to the top.  NTSM did give several buy signals over the weeks of 14 and 21 Oct, but the market just looks too frothy to rush back in…we’ll see if the market will pullback so I can join the insanity.  If not, cash is fine.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Two Steps Forward – One Step back

JOBLESS CLAIMS IMPROVE (Bloomberg)
“U.S. jobless claims in the week ended Nov. 16 dropped by 21,000 to 323,000, the fewest since the week ended Sept. 28, from a revised 344,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The median forecast of 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a drop to 335,000.”  General market story at…  
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-21/u-s-stock-index-futures-advance-before-jobless-report.html

For a more detailed look at claims see Doug Short’s website at…
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Weekly-Unemployment-Claims.php

US FACTORIES REBOUND, BUT EUROPE, CHINA FALTER (Reuters)
“Manufacturing activity and output rebounded in the United States this month, according to the Markit "flash," or preliminary U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, after hitting a one-year low in October.  But the overall pace of growth remained modest and ‘is barely generating any employment growth’ in the sector, said Markit chief economist Chris Williamson.” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/21/us-global-economy-idUSBRE9AK0IX20131121

SOFT PHILLY FED SURVEY RAISES MANUFACTURING DOUBTS (MarketWatch)
“The lowest reading of the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey since May has some economists fretting about a slowdown in the key manufacturing sector.
The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index slowed to a reading of 6.5 in November from 19.8 in October. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected a reading of 14.5…“We believe the weaker performance of the regional surveys in November may indicate some latent producer retrenchment in the wake of the October government shutdown as manufacturers continue to face an uncertain environment ahead,” he said.   Full story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/soft-philly-fed-survey-raises-manufacturing-doubts-2013-11-21?link=MW_home_latest_news

MARKET REPORT
Thursday, the S&P was up 0.8% to 1796 (rounded).
VIX was down 6% to 12.66.

The markets tend to be positive prior to Holidays, so next week may provide some up action before Thursday.  After that, I think we will see some down time.  The S&P 500 is 9.3% above its 200-dMA and the value of {Sentiment} x {Percent above the 200-dayMA} is now 7%.  Both are signaling a pullback of some kind.  Of course, those pullbacks have been exceedingly small in the QE era.

MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing jumped up to 52% at the close Thursday.  (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) 

New-highs outpaced new-lows Thursday, leaving the spread (new-hi minus new-low) at +83 (it was 0 Wednesday).  The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus +1.  In other words over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 1 each day.

The 4-measures of Market Internals that I track for this indicator did not agree, so this trend following indicator is neutral. 


 

 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but in 2013 (so far), if I had been buying the positive ratings and selling negative ratings I would have under-performed a buy-and-hold strategy.

NTSM ANALYSIS
Sentiment is EXTREME negative at 75%-bulls for the 5-day indicator.  All  other NTSM indicators are neutral. Overall, NTSM is neutral. That is a broken record.


 
 
(I am mostly out of the market already.)

MY INVESTED POSITION (NO CHANGE)
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540).  The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April.  (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)  I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested.  If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments.  It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market goes up.  No system is perfect.

I still lean toward getting back in, after a pullback, to speculate on a final ride to the top.  NTSM did give several buy signals over the weeks of 14 and 21 Oct, but the market just looks too frothy to rush back in…we’ll see if the market will pullback so I can join the insanity.  If not, cash is fine.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Retail Sales UP…Correction? VIX says “No.”

RETAIL SALES UP (Reuters)
“Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline and building materials increased 0.5 percent last month after advancing 0.3 percent in September, the Commerce Department said. Overall retail sales rose 0.4 percent after being flat in September…"It reinforces the current narrative of sustained growth momentum in the recovery going into the last quarter of the year, even at a time when the economy was contending with the headwinds created by the government shutdown," said Millan Mulraine, senior economist at TD Securities in New York.” Story at…
http://news.yahoo.com/retail-sales-beat-forecasts-point-firming-growth-133321619--business.html

FED TAPER LIKELY IN COMING MONTHS ON BETTER DATA (Bloomberg)
“Federal Reserve officials said they might reduce their $85 billion in monthly bond purchases “in coming months” as the economy improves, minutes of their last meeting show.”  Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/fed-taper-likely-in-coming-months-on-better-data.html

MARKET REPORT
Wednesday, the S&P was up until the Fed minutes were released at 2PM; the S&P 500 finished down 0.4% to 1781 (rounded).
VIX was up a small amount 0.1% to 13.40.

MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing was 47% at the close Wednesday.  (A number below 50% for the 10-day average is generally bad news for the market.) 

New-highs equaled new-lows Wednesday, leaving the spread (new-hi minus new-low) at 0 (it was +37 Tuesday).  That’s a negative, but it doesn’t indicate a particularly bad outcome.  Reversals of this type have been followed by a 3-5% pullback recently. 

CORRECTION
Sooner or later we’ll see a bigger pullback; but there is no indication in the VIX that would show that options players are getting concerned so my suggestion of a 15% pullback, yesterday, may be too high.  At this point, we may (again) be looking at a smaller correction.  So as a guess, perhaps we'll have a 10% drop from the top.  We’ll see if the VIX starts moving up enough to suggest something worse.  In the end - this is mostly guesswork based on signals that haven't worked all that well in the QE era.

The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus -15.  In other words over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased by 15 each day.

MARKET INTERNALS SUMMARY
The 4-measures of Market Internals that I track for this indicator were negative at the close today.  So this trend following indicator is negative. 


 


Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but in 2013 (so far), if I had been buying the positive ratings and selling negative ratings I would have under-performed a buy-and-hold strategy.

NTSM ANALYSIS
Sentiment is EXTREME negative at 75%-bulls for the 5-day indicator.  All  other NTSM indicators are neutral. Overall, NTSM is neutral. That is a broken record.


 
 
(I am mostly out of the market already.)

MY INVESTED POSITION (NO CHANGE)
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540).  The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April.  (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)  I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested.  If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments.  It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market goes up.  No system is perfect.

I still lean toward getting back in, after a pullback, to speculate on a final ride to the top.  NTSM did give several buy signals over the weeks of 14 and 21 Oct, but the market just looks too frothy to rush back in…we’ll see if the market will pullback so I can join the insanity.  If not, cash is fine.