NYSE closed for Presidents Day...10-day Moving Averages

I wrote last week that as of Friday, “…there had been only 2 down- days over the prior 10 trading-days; this suggests that we are due for some down days next week. If we were to get to only 1 down day in the last 10 it would be a very bearish sign.”

 

For the record, this signal is based on a moving average so it is very hard to get only 1 up-day in a 10-day period. A 10-day moving average drops day eleven and adds a new day one each day. If we have an up-day tomorrow, Tuesday, it will drop an up-day (day 11) and add an up-day (day 1) so there would still be only 2 up-days over the prior 10.  As of Monday, we would need to see 5 more up days in a row before we get to only 1 up-day in the prior 10 days.  That will be hard to do. If we were to do it, it is a bearish sign.