Small Business Optimism ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“...a high percentage of electric cars are being totaled after only being involved in what appears to be minor collisions...The main reason that EVs are being scrapped is due to the fact that there is no viable way to repair even slightly damaged batteries which are turning out to be a disaster for insurance companies whilst also increasing motor insurance for drivers across the board.” From...
The Real Reason Why Electric Cars Are Being Totaled After A Minor Accident (msn.com)
 
CPI will be released tomorrow, 12 April, at 8:30am.
 
NFIB SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“Small business owners are cynical about future economic conditions,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Hiring plans fell to their lowest level since May 2020, but strong consumer spending has kept Main Street alive and supported strong labor demand.”
-Forty-three percent of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, down four points from February and remaining historically very high.
-The net percent of owners raising average selling prices decreased one point to a net 37% seasonally adjusted.
-The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher deteriorated six points from February to a net negative 15%.” Press release at...
https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was unchanged at 4109.
-VIX rose about 0.7% to 19.1.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.428%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 14.3% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 318-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector.  We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see. They have more work than they can handle and are hiring. They should do well going forward. Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. Boeing was downgraded 4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to meet demand.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.  I have no cash left.
 
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.6%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 was flat today, but you wouldn’t know it from the internals. Advancing issues were 3 times declining issues; up volume was more than 3 times down volume; new highs outpaced new-lows 2 to 1. Industrials outpaced the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 led all major indeces.  Usually, that kind of daily, bullish-action leads to an up-day very soon. The market action suggests that investors expect good news on inflation Wednesday.
 
The Advance/Decline ratio is still overbought so perhaps it will take another day or two for a reversal?
 
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) slipped from +4 to +2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +55 to +49. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: VOLUME & PRICE are positive; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I remain a Bull, but I’ll be watching indicators as always.  
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals dipped to HOLD. (Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.