NAVIGATE THE STOCK MARKET FOCUSES ON:
(1) Daily momentum analysis of the DOW 30 stocks and 15 ETFs across various market sectors.
(2) Stock Market commentary and analysis.
(3) Buy/Sell signals for major market turns.
(((The blog is for information only. You assume all risk of its use; we don’t warrant the accuracy of our content. You must do your own due diligence.)))
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund. HOUSING STARTS (Yahoo Finance) “Housing starts decreased 0.5% last month to a 1.35
million annualized rate, according to government data released Friday, after a
big rebound in August... The number of overall building permits, a proxy for
future construction, fell 2.9% to a 1.43 million annualized rate... Even with
the rise in single-family home construction, the rate is down from the furious
pace seen in late 2021 and early 2022, when mortgage rates were close to 3%...”
Story at... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-housing-starts-ease-decline-130155434.html MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS -Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5865. -VIX declined about 6% to 18.03. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.083%. MY TRADING POSITIONS: XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.Added more 9/20. UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20. QLD – added 7/24. SSO – added 10/16. SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs
and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +11 (11 more
Bull indicators than Bear indicators). TODAY’S COMMENT: Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +11 is bullish and the 10-dMA
of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) remains bullish. I
follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals. The S&P 500 made a new all-time high Friday.8% of issues on the NYSE made new highs today
and that’s a good number suggesting that even if there was a correction (and I’m
not predicting one) it would be less than 10%. Statistical analysis of the daily moves on the S&P
500 still show that markets are too calm.This indicator suggests a top in less than 20-days. This does not mean
that a major top is coming. It might simply portend a normal 3-5% retreat. The
last time this signal occurred was 10-days before the top of 16 July; the
market declined 8.5% after that top. I won’t worry until the S&P 500 chart looks more
bearish. For now, it appears that markets can keep running higher. BOTTOM LINE I’m bullish. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
