NAVIGATE THE STOCK MARKET FOCUSES ON:
(1) Daily momentum analysis of the DOW 30 stocks and 15 ETFs across various market sectors.
(2) Stock Market commentary and analysis.
(3) Buy/Sell signals for major market turns.
(((The blog is for information only. You assume all risk of its use; we don’t warrant the accuracy of our content. You must do your own due diligence.)))
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY -Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5612. -VIX rose about 3% to 22.28. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.213%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: XLK added 3/24/2025 SPY added 3/25/2025 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined and
remained bearish at -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators)
- the 10-dMA of the spread reversed down – another bearish sign. A retest of the low of 5522 looks likely now. That is
only about a 1.5% decline from today’s close. As of today, the drop from the
all-time high is 8.7% and the correction, top to bottom has lasted about 3
weeks, but a retest soon would push the total to around a month and a half. The
average correction under 10% lasts about a month. For bigger corrections, the
average from top to bottom is around 2-1/2 months. The low in this correction was about two weeks ago. In 2018,
it took more than a month to retest the prior low. We won’t know anything until the S&P 500 retests the
old low.When it does, we may have a
better idea whether there will be more downside. BOTTOM LINE I am neutral because I suspect that a retest will be
successful. After time has passed, they usually are. If the Trump tariff talk
winds down, investors may settle down. If not, I’ll turn more bearish. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
