NAVIGATE THE STOCK MARKET FOCUSES ON:
(1) Daily momentum analysis of the DOW 30 stocks and 15 ETFs across various market sectors.
(2) Stock Market commentary and analysis.
(3) Buy/Sell signals for major market turns.
(((The blog is for information only. You assume all risk of its use; we don’t warrant the accuracy of our content. You must do your own due diligence.)))
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. “Blind obedience to authority is the greatest enemy of
truth.” - Albert Einstein "This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." -Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX). FOMC MINUTES (FX Empire) “On May 28, 2025, the Federal Reserve released the
Minutes of the FOMC Meeting that was held on May 6-7, 2025. The Minutes showed that Fed believed that economic
activity continued to expand at a solid pace, while labor market conditions
remained solid. Meanwhile, inflation remained somewhat elevated.... The central
bank needs more time to assess the impact of Trump’s tariff policy, so it will
not hurry to change rates.” Story at... https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/fomc-minutes-confirm-fed-is-not-in-a-hurry-to-cut-rates-1522422 MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS -Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 5889. -VIX rose about 2% to 18.96. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.475%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: None CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
That was an ugly chart today. The Bulls can’t like to see
the S&P 500 fail in the afternoon and close at the lows for the day. That
sort of selling can slip over to the next day. Indicators slipped some, too. Maybe
Nvidia’s earnings (a beat on earnings and revenue) will bring a better mood on
Thursday. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators dropped, but
remained bullish at +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I
consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread continued down – a
bearish sign. Once again, we saw extremely High unchanged volume.
Wednesday, there was extremely high, unchanged-volume. I know, you’re tired of
reading my standard note: As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator
suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back
down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still,
“High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong. For now, if the 10-day moving average of the 50-indicator
spread reverses higher I may put some more money to work and increase to a 50%
position in stocks. That didn’t happen today. BOTTOM LINE I am neutral/bullish/confused. Isn’t everyone? ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in
stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when
I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear
market position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
