NAVIGATE THE STOCK MARKET FOCUSES ON:
(1) Daily momentum analysis of the DOW 30 stocks and 15 ETFs across various market sectors.
(2) Stock Market commentary and analysis.
(3) Buy/Sell signals for major market turns.
(((The blog is for information only. You assume all risk of its use; we don’t warrant the accuracy of our content. You must do your own due diligence.)))
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. "This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." -Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025. ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP) “Private sector employment increased by 42,000 jobs in
October and pay was up 4.5 percent year-over-year according to the
October ADP
National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration
with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab").” News at..
https://mediacenter.adp.com/2025-11-05-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-42,000-Jobs-in-October-Annual-Pay-was-Up-4-5 MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS -Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6796. -VIX declined about 5% to 18.01. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.149%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: SPY – Added 8/26/2025 XLK – Added 8/26/2025 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from -9 to -10 (10 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued
down, a BEARSH sign. Ruh-Roh... More of the same... Wednesday there was another
Hindenburg Omen. That’s Five in the last six days. “The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator
that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market
instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship
that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market
conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and
lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia. As previously noted: Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great
record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there
is a cluster of Omens. Now we have seen 5 in 6 days. Looks like a cluster to
me. The Fosback New-high/New-low Logic Index uses a
methodology similar to the Hindenburg Omen. Fosback’s indicator is still
neutral, but just barely. Even if internals are fairly neutral, Thursday could send
the Fosback indicator into “sell” mode. I don’t act on one signal, but I am
reminded that this indicator called the Covid Pandemic top (before the 35% bear
market) to the day. There are now only 7 Bullish indicators: 4 are momentum
indicators and will respond to drops in the S&P 500; 2 are breadth indicators
that will respond to declining issues outpacing advancing issues; the last, a
Follow-thru Day, would be canceled by a big down-day that meets the test for a
Distribution Day. It wouldn’t take much for indicators to suggest reducing
stock positions. As noted yesterday, if we do see a correction, I expect
it to be less than 10% based on past history... But, if there are no bull indicators,
I would be inclined to reduce stock holdings. I don’t think small corrections
are correlated to Zero bull-signs. Indicators aren’t there yet so no need to
try and predict which way they will go. The S&P 500 is 1.4% below its all-time high; 2% above
its 50-dMA; and 11% above its 200-dMA. BOTTOM LINE I’m neutral, leaning bearish, but I won’t make any
portfolio changes at this point - watching indicators. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
