NAVIGATE THE STOCK MARKET FOCUSES ON:
(1) Daily momentum analysis of the DOW 30 stocks and 15 ETFs across various market sectors.
(2) Stock Market commentary and analysis.
(3) Buy/Sell signals for major market turns.
(((The blog is for information only. You assume all risk of its use; we don’t warrant the accuracy of our content. You must do your own due diligence.)))
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. "This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." -Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.” MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS -Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 1.2% to 6800. VIX rose about 07% to 16.48. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.143%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025 SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality. NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025. CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: At the close today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
Ugly chart today; down all day suggesting possible negative follow-thru Thursday. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from -3 to -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH
indication.I consider +5 to -5 the
neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above)
smooths daily fluctuations; it reversed down, a BEARISH sign. The S&P 500 is 0.6% below its 50-dMA, but all is not
lost. Wednesday was a statistically significant down-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time. Statistically significant down-days also frequently mark
the bottom of a trendline, so even though the Index broke the 50-dMA, sending a
bearish signal, the signal is not strong. I’d rather not see another close below the 50-dMA, but
rather than worry, let’s see what happens Thursday. This still feels like a normal retreat to the lower
trendline, but that may all change due to the increasingly strident military
actions by the Trump administration. Markets don’t like uncertainty and Trump
has a habit of creating uncertainty. BOTTOM LINE I’m bullish and fully invested. That may change – we’ll
see. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
As of Monday, 1 December, my
invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
