Pages

▼

Thursday, March 5, 2026

Productivity … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
 
May be an image of text that says 'NEWS In Western Hemisphere news, security forces of a peace-loving democracy invaded a neighbouring country and arrested its corrupt dictatorial leader. LET GO OF ME! THIS IS A TOTAL WITCH HUNT! Come along, eh! NOR 1)'
From “Bansky Art Fans” on Facebook.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE SENTIMENT EXTREME (McClellan Financial Publications)
“Recent data from the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of investment advisors and newsletter writers showed a very high bull-bear spread.  That spread is simply the numerical difference between the percentage of respondents classified as bullish versus those who are bearish.  High readings show extreme confidence, which every card-carrying contrarian knows is a sign of a top for stock prices.” – Tom McClellan. Analysis at…
My cmt: Tom cautions investors about following one indictor as I do regularly.
 
PRODUCTIVITY (LA Times)
“Labor productivity rose in the fourth quarter by more than forecast after the strongest advance in five years… Productivity, or nonfarm employee output per hour, increased at a 2.8% annualized rate…In the third quarter, productivity growth was revised up to a 5.2% pace.” Story at…
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week was unchanged from the week before, a sign that layoffs remain at historically low levels. U.S. filings for jobless aid for the week ending Feb. 28 matched the previous week’s 213,000…” Story at…
 
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 6831.
-VIX rose about 10% to 23.75.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.138% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -17 (17 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication. I have a really bad feeling about this.
 
There are now only 3 bull-indicators.  That’s a concern, but the 3 remaining indicators are important. Two of them are breadth indicators that suggest perhaps the market isn’t yet bad enough to be a “Sell.” The third compares cyclical industrials to the S&P 500. The cyclicals are still outperforming the S&P 500 suggesting that investors don’t expect a recession. If all three turn bearish, I will probably be a seller.
 
There were signs at the top back in January that a correction, if it occurred, would be 10% or less. That may be, but if there are no bull indicators, I’ll still most likely be a seller.
 
The close today for the S&P 500 was about 0.1% below its 100-dMA. If the Index is down again, it is another bearish sign although not one of my 50-indicators.
 
Some support levels are: S&P 500 6800, the level of recent lows.  The 200-dMA of the S&P 500 is 6574, about 4.5% below today’s close.  Another level of support is 6550, the 19 November low. My guess is that the S&P 500 will drop to its 200-dMA around the 6550-6570 level. It could certainly go lower. The 200-day is just a guess.
 
As noted previously, it seems like markets are doing terribly, but the S&P 500 is only 2.1% below its all-time high. The problem is that it is no higher than it was at the end of November.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; I am not expecting a crash but it’s a worry. I’ll hold my current stock positions unless indicators suggest otherwise.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
at