Friday was a busy day so I am just getting ‘round to posting Friday’s analysis.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Details are emerging about Joshua Jahn, the 29-year-old who allegedly shot up an immigration enforcement facility on Wednesday, and the evidence so far suggests a tragically familiar type: a young man adrift in life, with a criminal record for marijuana, spending time on the internet, while imbibing what passes for political debate these days...
...The Dallas shooting is another reminder to politicians and the press of the need to lower the rhetorical temperature. Americans want vigorous debate on the issues, but opponents of President Trump’s deportation policies and ICE raids can criticize them without portraying federal agents as fascist members of a Gestapo. They’re enforcing the law and following a democratically elected President...
...The public will learn more about Jahn in the investigation to come, but it isn’t hard to envision him as a troubled young man, the kind prone to act out, seeing warnings about a rising fascism and taking them seriously. It isn’t too soon for politicians to quit sending such messages to unstable listeners.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ice-shooting-dallas-joshua-jahn-f680753f?mod=opinion_lead_pos2
“Michael Colosi wants to build a home on his property in Charlotte County, Fla. But because the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has designated the land a habitat for a threatened bird—the Florida scrub jay—Mr. Colosi must either forfeit the use of his land, agree to expensive mitigation measures, or pay a nearly $140,000 fee to the county that helps fund a “habitat conservation plan.”...
...I saw a similar problem in Weyerhaeuser v. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (2018). I represented a Louisiana family whose timberland was declared “critical habitat” for the dusky gopher frog. No dusky gopher frogs lived on their property, and the species couldn’t survive there without drastic alterations. Yet the federal government effectively barred my clients from developing their land, even while admitting that they would lose tens of millions of dollars in value because of the regulation. The Supreme Court unanimously rejected that overreach, reminding the agency that it is bound by reason and law.” – Mark Miller, director of the Environment and Natural Resources practice group at the Pacific Legal Foundation. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/government-steals-land-in-the-name-of-birds-and-frogs-f92c6edc
My cmt: There is no “Human” in the Fish and Wildlife Service. USFWS has been closing beaches at Cape Hatteras for more than 15-years, but there has been no increase in any of the protected species. Numbers have been declining.
“New polling data ... Conducted by Lake Research Partners and commissioned by the national nonprofit Free Speech For People... shows that 49% of likely 2026 voters in swing districts supported impeaching Trump, compared to 44% who opposed. Additionally, the polling showed that 56% of those same voters disapproved of Trump during his second term compared to 40% who approved... “This is a surprising number of people in swing districts who want Trump impeached,” Easley wrote. “At the current pace this administration is on, the number of voters who want Trump impeached for a third time will pass 50% before the midterm election.” Story at...
'Trump’s presidency is effectively over': New polling spells disaster for Trump in 2026
My cmt: There was a caveat in the story: The author suggests that Trump’s Presidency will be over if the Democrats take 20 seats in the House. 20 seems like a stretch, but we’ll see. Dems only need 3 to retake the majority.
“The U.S. Justice Department filed criminal charges against former FBI Director James Comey on Thursday, in a dramatic escalation of President Donald Trump's retribution campaign against his political enemies. If convicted, Comey could face up to five years in prison. He faces charges of making false statements and obstructing a congressional investigation.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi-ex-chief-comey-criminally-charged-trump-targets-critics-source-says-2025-09-25/
My cmt: Are you kidding me? Comey’s reopening of the Clinton email probe less than 2-weeks before the 2016 election torpedoed Hillary Clinton’s chances. Trump should have given her a medal! Looking back, too bad Clinton didn’t win. Bill Clinton was a good republican. What, you say he was a Democrat? Bill balanced the budget; reformed welfare; passed the three-strike crime bill; saved Social Security – seems like a Republican to me.
“...PCE price index for durable goods, many of which are tariffed, fell (negative readings) in August for the second month in a row, while inflation in services, which are not tariffed, accelerated further. [Go figure.] Both the overall PCE price index and the core PCE price index accelerated further year-over-year, and their increases (+2.7% and +2.9%) are now worse than a year ago... This confirms what we have already seen in the primary inflation index of the US, the CPI, whose August data were released earlier in September by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: the month-to-month increase of core services was above 4% annualized for the second month in a row, the worst since January.” Story at...
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/26/inflation-is-in-services-despite-powells-denials-pce-price-index-for-core-services-accelerated-further-durable-goods-prices-fell-for-2nd-month/
From Media Bias Fact Check: “We rate Wolf Street as Least Biased based on its focus on data-driven analysis and lack of ideological viewpoints. We also rate them High for factual reporting.”
“U.S. consumer spending increased slightly more than expected in August as households went on vacation and dined out, keeping the economy on solid ground as the third quarter progressed, while inflation continued to steadily pick up... Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.6% last month...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumer-spending-increases-solidly-august-2025-09-26/
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6644.
-VIX fell about 9% to 16.74. (Weakness over?)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.174% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -9 to -3 (3 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) and improved to a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.
If the decline continues, how far will it go? The best guess would be that the 50-dMA will hold. Currently, the 50-dMA is about 6460 or about 2.8% below today’s close. The lower trendline is higher and that is also a level of strong support.
I am cautiously bullish, I don’t expect a big correction, but I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.