“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Delegates at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) stormed out Friday as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took the stage and prepared to speak. The mass exit came after delegates spent days speaking about the situation in Gaza and proposals to end the nearly two-year war. Their response to Netanyahu was a stark contrast to the long round of applause that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas received when he addressed the international body virtually on Thursday.”
https://www.foxnews.com/world/un-delegates-walk-out-netanyahu-address-after-cheering-palestinian-leader-day-before
My cmt: I don’t get it. Hamas’ stated goals are to murder Jews and destroy Israel. During WWII the world fought Germany, not just the Nazis. There was no way to defeat the Nazis without bringing Germany to its knees. The same is true for Hamas. Hamas must be totally defeated and the only way to do it is to defeat Palestine/Gaza.
“The Trump administration last week told federal agencies to begin preparing for mass firings if Congress does not agree to a deal to avert a shutdown. If the White House follows through on its threat, it would mark a break from precedent, as federal employees are typically furloughed in such cases.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/28/trump-mass-firings-government-shutdown.html
My cmt: I worked for the Government for 34+ years. I went thru many Government shutdowns. In the early days (say 1971 thru 1990 or so) we voluntarily worked without pay under the assumption that shutdowns would be short and the Government would give back pay. Even though we didn’t work, Congress always authorized back pay. Somewhere around 1990, the lawyers decided that employees could not volunteer to work, because it obligated the Government to pay and that would be an illegal obligation. Just look at where we’ve come. Government employees have gone from working for free during shutdowns, because their work was important, to a situation where their boss is going to fire them as a bargaining chip. So much for morale. Trump is proving once again that he is a complete idiot.
“Trump wrote, ‘...FBI Agents were at, and in, the January 6th Protest, probably acting as Agitators and Insurrectionists, but certainly not as 'Law Enforcement Officials.' I want to know who each and every one of these so-called 'Agents' are, and what they were up to on that now 'Historic' Day...’
...Now his own FBI director is making clear that’s not true... ‘Patel has now said in a statement to Fox News that President Trump is incorrect, stating that 274 FBI Agents were not in the crowd prior to the start of the riot, and only entered to carry out crowd control once the violence began and demonstrators attempted to force their way into the Capitol Building.’" Story at...
'That's false': Kash Patel stuns observers by correcting Trump on 'outlandish' FBI claim
My cmt: Trump’s lie that agents were in the crowd acting as agitators facilitating the riot is a seditious claim that undermines support for the FBI and our Government. If John Adams were president, Trump would be in jail. That’s where he belongs now – he should be impeached. It is despicable that our President is such a blatant liar on such important matters. Does it pass the smell test? Of course not. If 274 agents were in the crowd as agitators, someone in the FBI would have come forward to expose such an un-American, traitorous act. FBI agents are professionals and sworn to uphold the Constitution. Melania needs to keep Trump off the internet when he is drunk.
“...stock market valuations have reached some truly rarified air. The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is hovering around 37.5. And, as David Rosenberg points out, Over 35 is, “the only cutoff point where every single time [the forward return] is negative.”
https://thefelderreport.com/2025/09/20/the-perils-presented-by-an-increasing-passive-share-of-the-stock-market/
“The Buffett Indicator measures the total U.S. stock market capitalization against the country’s GDP — essentially gaging if there’s a potential bubble... in a 2001 reflection on the dot-com bust, he [legendary investor Warren Buffet] offered a simple guide: ‘If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200% — as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 — you are playing with fire.’”
Today, the Buffett Indicator sits at a whopping 213%, topping dot-com bubble levels." Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffet-indicator-bright-red-111100127.html
My cmt: Ruh-roh! Better follow the NTSM indicators .
“Factory activity in Texas grew at a slower pace in September amid a weaker increase in production, but companies continue to expect increased business in the next six months, a survey by the Dallas Fed showed on Monday.
The general business activity index of the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey fell seven points to -8.7 in September.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3578064/texas-manufacturing-growth-slows-in-september-dallas-fed-survey.aspx
Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 6662.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.12. (Options players are not convinced the weakness is over?)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.143% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The price action suggests that weakness in the markets is ending, but the 10-dMA of indicators hasn’t quite bought that conclusion even though the daily indicators have improved.
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.