“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“San Francisco, Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, they’re very unsafe places and we’re ‘gonna straighten them out one by on. This is going to be a major part for some of the people in this room. That’s a war too. It’s a war from within.” – Donald Trump speaking to hundreds of senior U.S. military officers at the Quantico, Va. “Generals Meeting.”
My cmt: Never mind that a federal law passed in 1878 that makes it a crime to use any part of the U.S. Army or Air Force ... to enforce the law. Amendments have since extended its provisions to the Navy, Marine Corps, and Space Force. The National Guard is costing $1.8 million per day or $200-million for the expected duration of the deployment in Washington DC. They could hire 2000 police officers for a year, or 200 officers for 10 years for that cost. That’s the best use of funds, but Trump is all about gamesmanship and making himself look like a savior.
“America’s corporate leaders have been conspicuously quiet while President Trump has consolidated power over the U.S. economy—taking stakes in major companies, dramatically increasing tariffs, jawboning TV networks over programming decisions, threatening Federal Reserve independence, charging $100,000 for H-1B visas and corrupting government data integrity. During Mr. Trump’s first term, corporations embraced social responsibility and often challenged government overreach when it threatened business interests and democratic norms.
“I always believed that if push came to shove, those titans of industry would be guardrails for our democracy, for the importance of sustaining democratic institutions,” Kamala Harris writes in her memoir. “And one by one by one, they have been silent.” Why? Because Democrats have alienated the business community through years of ideological warfare disguised as governance. Businesses have decided the risk of pushing back is too high because Mr. Trump and his allies, as bad as they are, are better than the alternative.” - Caitlin Legacki, senior fellow at Third Way. She was a senior adviser to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, 2021-23. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-democrats-lost-big-business-8eaa7d4a?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgARbi1DN1r0KU_lR9euHeaJRdKrRRTMlLkcwwpkM-2nxGdC3oQ0RC0UxyR0HA%3D&gaa_ts=68dc087f&gaa_sig=lhfD6iBmb2K_Sn0wIvdBIiETZvUVc29t4M7fMddeMHqUQiT-nB3QyFUyv39PCOtawI7uLg6n9z2-q4AVPEpoUg%3D%3D
“As the first secretary of the Treasury, Alexander Hamilton helped establish the credit of the U.S. government, making it a trusted borrower at home and abroad. What we’ve done with that trust might appall him.
Over two centuries, the money we borrowed funded many of the biggest developments in our nation’s history. But we stopped paying it back and kept borrowing more, with no workable plan in place for repaying it. Our federal debt now stands at $37 trillion (about $400,000 for every taxpayer), with no end in sight.
As our unpaid bills keep piling up, long-term interest rates rise, and the dollar loses value in domestic and international markets, our financial system is looking shaky. We should pay attention to what Hamilton tried to teach us about borrowing responsibly before it is too late.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/economy/alexander-hamilton-national-debt-155e2634?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhtA5O39RuDnG80xfgBrIKRjkMnbydNd7TRQz7Mpn171rUkqbUIa4H7QipKg5s%3D&gaa_ts=68dc0192&gaa_sig=arjUyXl0jgv0gsvi4W5dBVRn4M1JM5uBp1WN7JN4srIZo0JO96HYJZPTcpSSayQP6ELVImwrZvsVqY1RxnSQ7w%3D%3D
“Goldman Sachs strategists say they’ve grown more bullish on equities for the rest of the year, citing an optimistic growth outlook and Federal Reserve easing that should help backstop stocks.
“The business cycle slowdown has continued, but recession risk remains anchored while monetary and fiscal policy easing accelerates, creating still favorable macro conditions for risk assets,” said a team of analysts led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research.” Story at...
Get ready for an end-of-year rally for stocks, Goldman Sachs says
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) slowed for a second straight month in September. The index fell 0.9 points to 40.6, marking the 22nd consecutive month of contraction for the index. The latest reading was below the forecast of 43.4.”
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/30/chicago-pmi-contracts-for-22nd-consecutive-month
My cmt: What jumps out in the above chart is the following: There have been 8 recessions since 1970 (shown in gray on the above chart); 7 of them started at a Chicago PMI higher than today’s value.
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.6 points in September to 94.2 (1985=100), down from 97.8 in August... ‘Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025," said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.’" Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-declines-again-in-september-302570940.html
“Limited layoffs have been a reassuring constant in the face of mounting volatility elsewhere in the economy, and the relative stability for those workers who already have a job has helped keep spending steady...August’s layoff rate of 1.1%, a hires rate of 3.2%, and 7.2 million job openings continued the low-firing, low-hiring trend that defines today’s economy. But frozen isn’t the same as stable. A stagnant labor market may look calm on the surface, but beneath that stillness is a lack of dynamism. Churn is vital to economic health...” Story at...
https://www.hiringlab.org/2025/09/30/august-2025-jolts-report-low-firing-low-hiring-low-churn/
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6688.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.28. (Options players are not convinced the weakness is over?)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.154% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT – NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY
As noted yesterday, the price action suggests that weakness in the markets is ending, but the 10-dMA of indicators hasn’t quite bought that conclusion even though the daily indicators have improved.
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.