“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
“What if I persuaded my caucus to say I’m going to
shut the government down, I am going to not pay our bills unless I get my way?
It’s a politics of idiocy, of confrontation, of paralysis.” – Senator
Chuck Schumer (D-NY) complaining about the Republican led shutdown in 2013.
(from CNN)
DO DEMOCRATS SUPPORT GIVING HEALTH COVEREGE TO ILLEGAL
IMMIGRANTS? (Fox)
"Raise your hand if your government plan would
provide coverage for undocumented immigrants," NBC News anchor Savannah Guthrie asked
while moderating the June 2019 debate followed by all ten Democrats on stage
raising their hands.” Story at...
Unearthed
debate clip goes viral against Dems as illegal immigrant health coverage
becomes top issue
WHY QATAR CHANGED COURSE ON HAMAS (WSJ – Excerpt)
“It is too early to know if there will be an agreement to
end the war in Gaza, and if so whether it will be implemented. But there is
reason for President Trump’s optimism that Hamas might release hostages, give
up its weapons and leave power. Change is afoot not in Gaza but in Doha—the
government of Qatar is pressuring its protégés to accept the deal.
The regime, which thwarted the last hostage deal, changed
its mind because the war has reached its home. After the Israel Defense Forces
operated in five Muslim capitals—Gaza, Beirut, Damascus, Sana’a, and Tehran—it
hit Doha...
Qatar is part of the problem, not the solution. Israel’s
decision to strike there with quiet American approval marked a crucial moment
in the war. It signaled that between the West and fundamentalist terror one
must choose a side.” - Amit Segal, chief political commentator on Israel’s
Channel 12 News and author of “A Call at 4 AM: Thirteen Prime Ministers and the
Crucial Decisions that Shaped Israeli Politics,” forthcoming Oct. 14.” – Commentary
at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/why-qatar-changed-course-on-hamas-20dff709?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgCACqY7RxOWA5Caetac88I-K8ojXycakjn5K9M_4lcgml2rFWoAnfzcl9WrSU%3D&gaa_ts=68e01907&gaa_sig=_KQ0ZfKdi-8rdNSgl3nNGg0e0oFvjBBxpPWMCUSoM0M_y2zY-ptEAm8zjJG0bNaY_HOixPsGLa_i1n6aHG2_hQ%3D%3D
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the services sector was
unchanged in September, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in
the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® reading
of 50 percent was at the breakeven point between expansion and contraction for
the first time since January 2010... Commentary in general indicated moderate
or weak growth, with more isolated observations of supplier delivery
challenges. Employment continues to be in contraction territory, thanks to a
combination of delayed hiring efforts and difficulty finding qualified staff.”
Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/september/
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING / PAYROLL REPORT – Not available
due to Government shutdown.
“The release of U.S. jobs data typically has traders and
investors glued to their screens at 8:30 am waiting for the all-important
numbers. This Friday, however, is giving some a sudden surplus of free time
along with the problem of trying to piece together the economic jigsaw puzzle
from other sources.” From Reuters at...
https://www.reuters.com/business/payroll-data-ice-gives-wall-street-newfound-free-time-big-problem-reading-2025-10-03/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was little changed (up 1 pt) at
6716.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 16.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.121%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from +2 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), and remained a
Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of
the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it is now flat – a Neutral sign.
At today’s high, the S&P 500 was 11.9% above its
200-dMA. The Index closed 11.4% above its 200-day. For my purposes, when the
S&P 500 is 12% above its 200-dMA, it is too stretched and issues a bearish
signal. I don’t act on one signal, but it does warn that it may not be a good
time to add new money to stocks.
At the high today, the S&P 500 was at its upper
trendline. That is another issue that is a concern when considering adding to
stock holdings.
There was another up-day Friday, though just barely. The
S&P 500 has had 6 straight days up. As
noted yesterday, that sort of action suggests a down-day Monday. We also note that 7 of the last 10 have been
up, but that is not enough to suggest a more significant reversal.
Same as yesterday: The S&P 500 made a new high today.
5.9% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. This is below average, but
not enough for this indicator to send a correction warning.
I’m fully invested, but I have not seen enough to put any
additional cash holdings into stocks. “Cash” in my money market is still
earning 3.9%. So, the trick is to remain patient.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to
indicators, as always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
“What if I persuaded my caucus to say I’m going to
shut the government down, I am going to not pay our bills unless I get my way?
It’s a politics of idiocy, of confrontation, of paralysis.” – Senator Chuck
Schumer (D-NY) complaining about the Republican led shutdown in 2013. (from CNN)
CAN DEMS BREAK FREE OF THE LEFT? / THE SHUTDOWN (WSJ)
“It’s official: The U.S. government is shut down. It’s a
staggering display of ineptitude from a Congress that can’t pass a budget and
can’t even agree to keep the government funded at roughly its current spending
level while the parties work out differences... Three Democrats came over, but
the rest refused. They want to make Covid-era enhanced subsidies for ObamaCare
health plans permanent, at the cost of $450 billion over the next decade.
Republicans argue the subsidies were always meant to be temporary and should be
allowed to expire.” – Karl Rove, senior adviser, and deputy chief of staff for
President George W. Bush and is author of “The Triumph of William
McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015). Opiion At...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/can-democrats-break-free-of-the-left-dc202c58?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgTY1TXYzN4LHzhO7HeXhib_0tTXVdzu8bugRyFAJpLvNWx4guJWDGhfiYonHs%3D&gaa_ts=68deaf13&gaa_sig=LBA_7M9mCjUrUr2MnX8C2DWYhB8yjWs7Zl_LTGmL0Hiv7xF-gftRDN8t2QC4uBNo3t9wEPgBPQXGQq-wfbUZSQ%3D%3D
HIT CONGRESS WHERE IT HURTS (WSJ)
“...For every week beyond the deadline [to keep
Government I operation], each congressman’s compensation would be reduced by
10%. That would require additional legislation, but wouldn’t it enjoy
near-universal public support? Either do your job or don’t get paid—rules the
rest of us live by.” - Hugh Stafford, letters to the editor, WSJ
JOBLESS CLAIMS / FACTORY ORDERS – Not available due to
Government shutdown.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6715.
-VIX rose about 2% to 16.63.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.085%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +6 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), and slipped to a Neutral
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.
The S&P 500 has had 5 straight days up. That sort of action suggests a down-day
Friday. We also note that 7 of the last
10 have been up, but that is not enough to suggest a more significant reversal.
Same as yesterday: The S&P 500 made a new high today.
4.6% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. This is below average, but
not enough for this indicator to send a correction warning.
Again, there was high, unchanged volume Thursday. I know,
you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator
suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back
down? That could always happen and the indicators are now mixed. Still, “High-unchanged-volume”
is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
Seems like I have been saying this for a while: I am
still waiting for indicators to improve further before I add to stock holdings.
Indicators are Neutral and the 10-day is still headed down.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to
indicators, as always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
My cmt: The Buffett Indicator sits at a whoppingly bearsish
213%, topping dot-com bubble levels. For more, see my earlier post BUFFETT
INDICATOR IS BRIGHT RED – WORSE THAN 1999 BUBBLE at...
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2025/09/dallas-fed-manufacturing-momentum.html
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
US TAKES A STAKE IN LITHIUM AMERICAS (CNBC)
“Lithium Americas shares rose 35% in extended trading
Tuesday after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Bloomberg that the U.S.
government will take a small stake in the company...[It is] the first such
stake proposed for a Canadian company. Lithium Americas trades on both the
Toronto Stock Exchange and the NYSE but is incorporated and domiciled in
Canada.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/30/lithium-americas-stock-pops-as-government-takes-a-stake-to-boost-nevada-project.html
My cmt: In my 34+year career in Government, the
expenditure process was inviolate. It takes two Bills for the Government to
spend money: (1) An Authorization Bill that spells out the specifics of a
future expenditure. (2) An Appropriations Bill that sets the amount of money to
be expended, typically in a Fiscal Year. Both are approved by Congress and
signed into law by the President.
Occasionally, there would be an accidental, illegal, unauthorized
expenditure in my office. This might happen if a contractor was directed to
perform work before a change order was completed. This resulted in potentially
harsh penalties for the employees involved along with a long and drawn-out
paper trail of explanations regarding how it happened, why it was unintentional
and how it would be avoided in the future.
I write this just to point out that the Trump
administration has no authority to spend the money described above. Congress authorized the United States to buy
a portion of Intel via the CHIPS Act. For Lithium Americas, there is no such
authorization. Yet Congress doesn’t raise a peep. Why? The GOP are a bunch of spinless wimps who
have ceded their power of the purse to Donald Trump. The Democrats don’t
complain because they (Warren, Saunders, Ocasio-Cortez, et al.) are in favor of
the government taking shares of companies because they support a Communist
playbook. When the Democrats are back in power, they will be able to control
private companies. Inconceivable!
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP via PRNews wire)
“Private sector employment shed 32,000 jobs in September
and pay was up 4.5 percent year-over-year according to the September ADP National
Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the
Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab")... "Despite the
strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release
further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S.
employers have been cautious with hiring," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief
economist, ADP.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-shed-32-000-jobs-in-september-annual-pay-was-up-4-5-302572337.html
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector
contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a
two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the
nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report...The
overall economy continued in expansion for the 65th month after one month of
contraction in April 2020.” Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/september/
My cmt: Manufacturing is expanding, but at a slower rate
than previously.
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Construction Dive)
“Nonresidential
construction spending slipped 0.2% in July...The dip marks the third
straight monthly decline, with tariffs climbing and labor shortages reemerging.
‘It may be a bleak second half of the year for the construction industry,’ said
Anirban Basu, ABC chief economist.” Story at...
https://www.constructiondive.com/news/construction-spending-slide-deepens/759102/
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.8 million barrels from the
previous week. At 416.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 6711.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.29.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.100% (compared
to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
As noted previously, the price action suggests that
weakness in the markets has ended, but the 10-dMA of indicators hasn’t quite
bought that conclusion even though the daily indicators have improved. After 3
days down, the S&P 500 has now made 4-days up.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from +3 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), and improved to a
mildly Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA
curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a
bearish sign.
The S&P 500 made a new high today. 5.8% of issues on
the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. This is below average, but not enough for this
indicator to send a correction warning.
There was extreme high, unchanged volume Wednesday. I
know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator
suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back
down? That could always happen and the indicators are now mixed. Still, “High-unchanged-volume”
is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
I am still waiting for indicators to improve further
before I add to stock holdings. Indicators are only slightly bullish and the
10-day remains headed down.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to
indicators, as always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
