“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
TRUMP ADDRESSES THE GENERALS
“San Francisco, Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, they’re
very unsafe places and we’re ‘gonna straighten them out one by on. This is
going to be a major part for some of the people in this room. That’s a war too.
It’s a war from within.” – Donald Trump speaking to hundreds of senior U.S.
military officers at the Quantico, Va. “Generals Meeting.”
My cmt: Never mind that a federal law passed in 1878 that
makes it a crime to use any part of the U.S. Army or Air Force ... to enforce
the law. Amendments have since extended its provisions to the Navy, Marine
Corps, and Space Force. The National Guard is costing $1.8 million per day or
$200-million for the expected duration of the deployment in Washington DC. They
could hire 2000 police officers for a year, or 200 officers for 10 years for
that cost. That’s the best use of funds, but Trump is all about gamesmanship
and making himself look like a savior.
HOW DEMOCRATS LOST BIG BUSINESS (WSJ-Excerpt)
“America’s corporate leaders have been conspicuously
quiet while President Trump has consolidated power over the U.S. economy—taking
stakes in major companies, dramatically increasing tariffs, jawboning TV
networks over programming decisions, threatening Federal Reserve independence,
charging $100,000 for H-1B visas and corrupting government data integrity.
During Mr. Trump’s first term, corporations embraced social responsibility and
often challenged government overreach when it threatened business interests and
democratic norms.
“I always believed that if push came to shove, those
titans of industry would be guardrails for our democracy, for the importance of
sustaining democratic institutions,” Kamala
Harris writes in her memoir. “And one by one by one, they have been
silent.” Why? Because Democrats have alienated the business community through
years of ideological warfare disguised as governance. Businesses have decided
the risk of pushing back is too high because Mr. Trump and his allies, as bad
as they are, are better than the alternative.” - Caitlin Legacki, senior fellow
at Third Way. She was a senior adviser to Commerce Secretary Gina
Raimondo, 2021-23. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-democrats-lost-big-business-8eaa7d4a?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgARbi1DN1r0KU_lR9euHeaJRdKrRRTMlLkcwwpkM-2nxGdC3oQ0RC0UxyR0HA%3D&gaa_ts=68dc087f&gaa_sig=lhfD6iBmb2K_Sn0wIvdBIiETZvUVc29t4M7fMddeMHqUQiT-nB3QyFUyv39PCOtawI7uLg6n9z2-q4AVPEpoUg%3D%3D
WHAT ALEXANDER HAMILTON WOULD THINK OF TODAY’S NATIONAL
DEBT (WSJ)
“As the first secretary of the Treasury, Alexander
Hamilton helped establish the credit of the U.S. government, making it a
trusted borrower at home and abroad. What we’ve done with that trust might
appall him.
Over two centuries, the money we borrowed funded many of
the biggest developments in our nation’s history. But we stopped paying it back
and kept borrowing more, with no workable plan in place for repaying it. Our
federal debt now stands at $37 trillion (about $400,000 for every taxpayer),
with no end in sight.
As our unpaid bills keep piling up, long-term interest
rates rise, and the dollar loses value in domestic and international markets,
our financial system is looking shaky. We should pay attention to what Hamilton
tried to teach us about borrowing responsibly before it is too late.” Story
at...
https://www.wsj.com/economy/alexander-hamilton-national-debt-155e2634?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhtA5O39RuDnG80xfgBrIKRjkMnbydNd7TRQz7Mpn171rUkqbUIa4H7QipKg5s%3D&gaa_ts=68dc0192&gaa_sig=arjUyXl0jgv0gsvi4W5dBVRn4M1JM5uBp1WN7JN4srIZo0JO96HYJZPTcpSSayQP6ELVImwrZvsVqY1RxnSQ7w%3D%3D
END OF YEAR RALLY (MarketWatch)
“Goldman Sachs strategists say they’ve grown more bullish
on equities for the rest of the year, citing an optimistic growth outlook and
Federal Reserve easing that should help backstop stocks.
“The business cycle slowdown has continued, but recession
risk remains anchored while monetary and fiscal policy easing accelerates,
creating still favorable macro conditions for risk assets,” said a team of
analysts led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research.”
Story at...
Get
ready for an end-of-year rally for stocks, Goldman Sachs says
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business
Barometer) slowed for a second straight month in September. The index fell 0.9
points to 40.6, marking the 22nd consecutive month of contraction for the
index. The latest reading was below the forecast of 43.4.”
Analysis and charts at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/30/chicago-pmi-contracts-for-22nd-consecutive-month
My cmt: What jumps out in the above chart is the
following: There have been 8 recessions since 1970 (shown in gray on the above
chart); 7 of them started at a Chicago PMI higher than today’s
value.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board via PR News Wire)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.6 points in
September to 94.2 (1985=100), down from 97.8 in August... ‘Consumer confidence
weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025,"
said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The
Conference Board.’" Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-declines-again-in-september-302570940.html
AUGUST JOLTS REPORT: LOW FIRING, LOW HIRING, LOW CHURN
(Hiring Lab)
“Limited layoffs have been a reassuring constant in the
face of mounting volatility elsewhere in the economy, and the relative
stability for those workers who already have a job has helped keep spending
steady...August’s layoff rate of 1.1%, a hires rate of 3.2%, and 7.2 million
job openings continued the low-firing, low-hiring trend that defines today’s
economy. But frozen isn’t the same as stable. A stagnant labor market may look
calm on the surface, but beneath that stillness is a lack of dynamism. Churn is
vital to economic health...” Story at...
https://www.hiringlab.org/2025/09/30/august-2025-jolts-report-low-firing-low-hiring-low-churn/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6688.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.28. (Options players are not
convinced the weakness is over?)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.154%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT – NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY
As noted yesterday, the price action suggests that
weakness in the markets is ending, but the 10-dMA of indicators hasn’t quite
bought that conclusion even though the daily indicators have improved.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from +1 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), but remained a
Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of
the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.
The 10-day of issues advancing on the NYSE remains below
50%, i.e., less than half of the issues have been up over the last
10-days. This is one of my measures for
Breadth. It remains a bearish sign. Breadth indicators are a mixed bag
now. McClellan Oscillator remains
bearish, but most of the others are not.
I noted last week that the S&P 500 did not fall to
its lower trendline so I suspected that the weakness in the markets is not
over. The price action in the S&P 500 is suggesting otherwise. If the
10-dMA of indicators moves higher I’ll consider adding to the stock portfolio.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to
indicators, as always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
UN DELEGATES WALK OUT ON NETANYAHU (Fox News)
“Delegates at the United
Nations General Assembly (UNGA) stormed out Friday as Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took the stage and prepared to speak. The mass
exit came after delegates spent days speaking about the situation in Gaza and
proposals to end the nearly two-year war. Their response to Netanyahu was a
stark contrast to the long round of applause that Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas received when he addressed the international body
virtually on Thursday.”
https://www.foxnews.com/world/un-delegates-walk-out-netanyahu-address-after-cheering-palestinian-leader-day-before
My cmt: I don’t get it. Hamas’ stated goals are to murder
Jews and destroy Israel. During WWII the world fought Germany, not just the
Nazis. There was no way to defeat the Nazis without bringing Germany to its
knees. The same is true for Hamas. Hamas must be totally defeated and the only
way to do it is to defeat Palestine/Gaza.
TRUMP THREATENS MASS FIRINGS (CNBC)
“The Trump administration last
week told federal agencies to begin preparing for mass firings if
Congress does not agree to a deal to avert a shutdown. If the White House
follows through on its threat, it would mark a break from precedent, as federal
employees are typically furloughed in such cases.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/28/trump-mass-firings-government-shutdown.html
My cmt: I worked for the Government for 34+ years. I went
thru many Government shutdowns. In the early days (say 1971 thru 1990 or so) we
voluntarily worked without pay under the assumption that shutdowns would be
short and the Government would give back pay. Even though we didn’t work,
Congress always authorized back pay. Somewhere around 1990, the lawyers decided
that employees could not volunteer to work, because it obligated the Government
to pay and that would be an illegal obligation. Just look at where we’ve
come. Government employees have gone
from working for free during shutdowns, because their work was important, to a
situation where their boss is going to fire them as a bargaining chip. So much
for morale. Trump is proving once again that he is a complete idiot.
THAT’S FALSE: KASH PATEL STUNS OBSERVERS BY CORRECTING
TRUMP ON “OUTLANDISH” FBI CLAIM (Raw Story)
“Trump wrote, ‘...FBI Agents were at, and in, the January
6th Protest, probably acting as Agitators and Insurrectionists, but certainly
not as 'Law Enforcement Officials.' I want to know who each and every one of
these so-called 'Agents' are, and what they were up to on that now 'Historic'
Day...’
...Now his own FBI director is making clear that’s not
true... ‘Patel has now said in a statement to Fox News that President Trump is
incorrect, stating that 274 FBI Agents were not in the crowd prior to the start
of the riot, and only entered to carry out crowd control once the violence
began and demonstrators attempted to force their way into the Capitol Building.’"
Story at...
'That's
false': Kash Patel stuns observers by correcting Trump on 'outlandish' FBI
claim
My cmt: Trump’s lie that agents were in the crowd acting
as agitators facilitating the riot is a seditious claim that undermines support
for the FBI and our Government. If John Adams were president, Trump would be in
jail. That’s where he belongs now – he should be impeached. It is despicable
that our President is such a blatant liar on such important matters. Does it
pass the smell test? Of course not. If
274 agents were in the crowd as agitators, someone in the FBI would have come
forward to expose such an un-American, traitorous act. FBI agents are
professionals and sworn to uphold the Constitution. Melania needs to keep Trump off the internet
when he is drunk.
WORTH REPEATING: PERILS OF PASSIVE INVESTING (The Felder
Report)
“...stock market valuations have reached some truly
rarified air. The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is
hovering around 37.5. And, as David
Rosenberg points out, Over 35 is, “the only cutoff point where every
single time [the forward return] is negative.”
Commentary and chart from...
https://thefelderreport.com/2025/09/20/the-perils-presented-by-an-increasing-passive-share-of-the-stock-market/
BUFFETT INDICATOR IS BRIGHT RED – WORSE THAN 1999 BUBBLE
(Yahoo Finance)
“The Buffett Indicator measures the total U.S. stock
market capitalization against the country’s GDP — essentially gaging if there’s
a potential bubble... in a 2001 reflection on the dot-com bust, he [legendary
investor Warren Buffet] offered a simple guide: ‘If the percentage relationship
falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for
you. If the ratio approaches 200% — as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 — you
are playing with fire.’”
Today, the Buffett Indicator sits at a whopping 213%,
topping dot-com bubble levels." Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffet-indicator-bright-red-111100127.html
My cmt: Ruh-roh! Better follow the NTSM indicators .
DALLAS FED (RTT News)
“Factory activity in Texas grew at a slower pace in
September amid a weaker increase in production, but companies continue to
expect increased business in the next six months, a survey by the
Dallas Fed showed on Monday.
The general business activity index of the Texas
Manufacturing Outlook Survey fell seven points to -8.7 in September.” Story
at...
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3578064/texas-manufacturing-growth-slows-in-september-dallas-fed-survey.aspx
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 6662.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.12. (Options players are not
convinced the weakness is over?)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.143%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The price action suggests that weakness in the markets is
ending, but the 10-dMA of indicators hasn’t quite bought that conclusion even
though the daily indicators have improved.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from -3 to +1 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), but remained a
Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of
the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.
The 10-day of issues advancing on the NYSE remains below
50%, i.e., less than half of the issues have been up over the last
10-days. This is one of my measures for
Breadth. It remains a bearish sign. Breadth indicators are a mixed bag
now. McClellan Oscillator remains
bearish, but most of the others are not.
I noted last week that the S&P 500 did not fall to
its lower trendline so I suspected that the weakness in the markets was not
over. The price action in the S&P 500 is suggesting otherwise. If the
10-dMA of indicators moves higher I’ll consider adding to the stock portfolio.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to
indicators, as always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
Friday was a busy day so I
am just getting ‘round to posting Friday’s analysis.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
ANTI-ICE SHOOTING (WSJ – EXCERPT)
“Details are emerging about Joshua Jahn, the
29-year-old who allegedly shot up an immigration enforcement facility on
Wednesday, and the evidence so far suggests a tragically familiar type: a young
man adrift in life, with a criminal record for marijuana, spending time on the
internet, while imbibing what passes for political debate these days...
...The Dallas shooting is another reminder to politicians
and the press of the need to lower the rhetorical temperature. Americans want
vigorous debate on the issues, but opponents of President Trump’s deportation
policies and ICE raids can criticize them without portraying federal agents as
fascist members of a Gestapo. They’re enforcing the law and following a
democratically elected President...
...The public will learn more about Jahn in the
investigation to come, but it isn’t hard to envision him as a troubled young
man, the kind prone to act out, seeing warnings about a rising fascism and
taking them seriously. It isn’t too soon for politicians to quit sending such
messages to unstable listeners.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ice-shooting-dallas-joshua-jahn-f680753f?mod=opinion_lead_pos2
GOVERNMENT STEALS LAND FOR BIRDS AND FROGS (WSJ)
“Michael Colosi wants to build a home on his
property in Charlotte County, Fla. But because the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service has designated the land a habitat for a threatened bird—the Florida
scrub jay—Mr. Colosi must either forfeit the use of his land, agree to
expensive mitigation measures, or pay a nearly $140,000 fee to the county that
helps fund a “habitat conservation plan.”...
...I saw a similar problem in Weyerhaeuser v.
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (2018). I represented a Louisiana family
whose timberland was declared “critical habitat” for the dusky gopher frog. No
dusky gopher frogs lived on their property, and the species couldn’t survive
there without drastic alterations. Yet the federal government effectively
barred my clients from developing their land, even while admitting that they
would lose tens of millions of dollars in value because of the regulation. The
Supreme Court unanimously rejected that overreach, reminding the agency that it
is bound by reason and law.” – Mark Miller, director of the Environment and
Natural Resources practice group at the Pacific Legal Foundation. Commentary
at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/government-steals-land-in-the-name-of-birds-and-frogs-f92c6edc
My cmt: There is no “Human” in the Fish and Wildlife
Service. USFWS has been closing beaches at Cape Hatteras for more than
15-years, but there has been no increase in any of the protected species.
Numbers have been declining.
TRUMP’S PRESIDENCY IS EFFECTIVELY OVER? (Raw Story)
“New polling data ... Conducted by Lake Research Partners
and commissioned by the national nonprofit Free Speech For
People... shows that 49% of likely 2026 voters in swing districts supported
impeaching Trump, compared to 44% who opposed. Additionally, the polling showed
that 56% of those same voters disapproved of Trump during his second term
compared to 40% who approved... “This is a surprising number of people in swing
districts who want Trump impeached,” Easley wrote. “At the current pace this
administration is on, the number of voters who want Trump impeached for a third
time will pass 50% before the midterm election.” Story at...
'Trump’s
presidency is effectively over': New polling spells disaster for Trump in 2026
My cmt: There was a caveat in the story: The author
suggests that Trump’s Presidency will be over if the Democrats take 20 seats in
the House. 20 seems like a stretch, but we’ll see. Dems only need 3 to retake
the majority.
COMEY CHARGED AS TRUMP RAMPS UP CAMPAIGN AGAINST CRITICS
(Reuters)
“The U.S. Justice Department filed criminal charges
against former FBI Director James Comey on Thursday, in a dramatic escalation
of President Donald
Trump's retribution campaign against his political enemies. If convicted,
Comey could face up to five years in prison. He faces charges of making false
statements and obstructing a congressional investigation.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi-ex-chief-comey-criminally-charged-trump-targets-critics-source-says-2025-09-25/
My cmt: Are you kidding me? Comey’s reopening of the
Clinton email probe less than 2-weeks before the 2016 election torpedoed Hillary
Clinton’s chances. Trump should have given her a medal! Looking back, too bad
Clinton didn’t win. Bill Clinton was a good republican. What, you say he was a
Democrat? Bill balanced the budget; reformed welfare; passed the three-strike
crime bill; saved Social Security – seems like a Republican to me.
PCE PRICE (Wolf Street)
“...PCE price index for durable goods, many of which are
tariffed, fell (negative readings) in August for the second month in a row,
while inflation in services, which are not tariffed, accelerated further. [Go
figure.] Both the overall PCE price index and the core PCE price index
accelerated further year-over-year, and their increases (+2.7% and +2.9%) are
now worse than a year ago... This confirms what we have already seen in
the primary inflation index of the US, the CPI, whose August data
were released earlier in September by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: the
month-to-month increase of core services was above 4% annualized for the second month in a row, the
worst since January.” Story at...
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/26/inflation-is-in-services-despite-powells-denials-pce-price-index-for-core-services-accelerated-further-durable-goods-prices-fell-for-2nd-month/
From Media Bias Fact Check: “We rate Wolf Street as
Least Biased based on its focus on data-driven analysis and lack of ideological
viewpoints. We also rate them High for factual reporting.”
PERSONAL SPENDING (Reuters)
“U.S. consumer spending increased slightly more than
expected in August as households went on vacation and dined out, keeping the
economy on solid ground as the third quarter progressed, while inflation
continued to steadily pick up... Consumer spending, which accounts for more
than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.6% last month...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumer-spending-increases-solidly-august-2025-09-26/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6644.
-VIX fell about 9% to 16.74. (Weakness over?)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at
4.174% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from -9 to -3 (3 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) and improved to a Neutral
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.
The 10-day of issues advancing on the NYSE remains below
50%, i.e., less than half of the issues have been up over the last
10-days. This is one of my measures for
Breadth. It remains a bearish sign. Breadth indicators are a mixed bag
now. McClellan Oscillator is bearish, but
most of the others are not.
The S&P 500 did not fall to its lower trendline so I
suspect that the weakness in the markets is not over. As we have been writing
for a while, if a correction were to occur now, it is likely to be no greater
than a 10% drop, based on observed indications.
REPEATING:
If the decline continues, how far will it go? The best
guess would be that the 50-dMA will hold.
Currently, the 50-dMA is about 6460 or about 2.8% below today’s close.
The lower trendline is higher and that is also a level of strong support.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish, I don’t expect a big correction,
but I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
PERILS OF PASSIVE INVESTING (The Felder Report)
“...stock market valuations have reached some truly
rarified air. The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is
hovering around 37.5. And, as David
Rosenberg points out, Over 35 is, “the only cutoff point where every
single time [the forward return] is negative.”
Commentary and chart from...
https://thefelderreport.com/2025/09/20/the-perils-presented-by-an-increasing-passive-share-of-the-stock-market/
DURABLE ORDERS (RTT News)
“After reporting a sharp pullback by new orders for U.S.
manufactured durable goods over the two previous months, the Commerce
Department released a report on Thursday unexpectedly showing a significant
rebound by durable goods orders in the month of August. The Commerce Department
said durable goods orders shot up by 2.9 percent in August...” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3577256/u-s-durable-goods-orders-unexpectedly-rebound-in-august.aspx
JOBLESS CLAIMS (CNBC)
“First-time filings for the week ended Sept. 20 totaled a
seasonally adjusted 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised
figure and significantly less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 235,000...”
Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/25/jobless-claims-tumble-to-218000-well-below-estimate-despite-fears-of-labor-market-weakness.html
GDP / PCE PRICES - FINAL
“Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic
output, rose at an annualized rate of 3.8% from April through June, the
Commerce Department said Thursday in its third and final estimate. That’s
significantly higher than the 3.3% rate reported in the second estimate...”
Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/25/economy/us-gdp-q2-final
“Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP
is simply the total amount of spending in an economy. GDP, as currently
measured, does not distinguish between “good” spending and “bad” spending. GDP
does not distinguish between consumption spending and investment spending. GDP also
does not distinguish whether spending is generated by existing wealth, by going
into debt temporarily, or by going into debt permanently. In this world, every dollar spent on education
or new means of production, is counted the same as every dollar spent on epic
bachelor parties and video games.” – Michael Lebowitz, Real Investment Advice.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 6605.
-VIX rose about 3% to 16.74.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.17%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from Zero to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) and reversed to a
Bear indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.
The big drop in the daily indicators and the bearish reversal
in the 10-dMA of indicator spread are a worry, but they are not unlike the
warnings we saw at the end of August. In those recent cases the S&P 500
declined, but only to the lower trendline. It did not fall to its 50-dMA. That
could be the case again.
As I wrote previously, there was decent breadth at the
all-time high that occurred just three days ago. This suggested that if
declines occurred, they would be less than 10%. With that in mind, I am not
inclined to make portfolio changes now. I might change my mind if the lower
trend line is violated in a meaningful way. If it is, I’ll reassess. Otherwise,
we’ll be looking for a bottom as a buying opportunity.
The 10-day of issues advancing on the NYSE fell to 45%,
i.e., less than half of the issues have been up over the last 10-days. This is one of my measures for Breadth. It is
now a bearish sign.
REPEATING:
If the decline continues, how far will it go? The best
guess would be that the 50-dMA will hold.
Currently, the 50-dMA is about 6450 or about 2.4% below today’s close.
The lower trendline is higher and that is also a level of strong support.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish, I don’t expect a big correction,
but I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
TRUMP, TYLENOL AND THE PLAINTIFFS BAR (WSJ-Excerpt)
“We’ll admit we didn’t see this coming: President Trump
advising pregnant women against using one of the most ubiquitous
over-the-counter medicines in America... “Don’t take Tylenol,” Mr. Trump said
standing next to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy
Jr. “Fight like hell not to take it.” If a drug company made the unproven
claims aired at the White House, the Food and Drug Administration would
threaten legal action... Some studies have found that neuro-developmental
diseases including autism are more common in children of women who use
acetaminophen more often during pregnancy. But correlation doesn’t prove
causation, and even the evidence of the association is mixed. [Women who eat French
fries are prone to having autistic children; that’s why correlation doesn’t
prove causation.]...So why the sudden alarm, complete with a presidential
presser? The Occam’s razor answer is the influence of RFK Jr., who is carrying
water for his friends in the plaintiffs bar. A who’s-who of lawsuit shops are
pushing the Tylenol-autism link in federal court. The litigants include the
Lanier Law Firm, Beasley Allen, Cooper Law Partners, and Keller
Postman. Most have been allies of Mr. Kennedy in other mass torts, such as
against the weed-killer Roundup and Merck’s HPV vaccine. Their main lawsuit
claim is that Tylenol’s marketer, Kenvue Inc.,
failed to warn users about an autism-acetaminophen link.
... Perhaps no one told Mr. Trump about
this trial lawyer campaign, but the costs of his intervention aren’t benign.
He’s raising public fear about a useful medicine in a way that could harm
maternal and fetal health. [When a pregnant woman has a fever, it is likely to
do more harm than using Tylenol given that the unproven claims associated with
Tylenol have been refuted in many reputable studies.] Whatever happened to do
no harm?” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. See the full article at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/tylenol-acetaminophen-autism-donald-trump-rfk-jr-fda-pregnant-women-548bb877?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
My cmt: Here ‘s a study on the subject from the Journal
of the American Medical Association:
Subject: “Risk of Autism, ADHD, and Intellectual
Disability”
Findings: ”Acetaminophen use during pregnancy was not
associated with children’s risk of autism, ADHD, or intellectual disability in
sibling control analyses. This suggests that associations observed in other
models may have been attributable to confounding.” Study at...
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2817406
EVEN THE VERY RICH SHOULD INVEST IN BROAD MARKET INDEX
FUNDS (Marketwatch)
“There’s no doubt that the 400 richest Americans are
coming off a very good 12 months — but over the last decade, they would have
done even better had they invested in a broad-market index fund. This provides
a powerful investment lesson to the rest of us. Contrary to the belief that the
ultrawealthy have some unique investment skills that enable them to regularly
beat the stock market, even they, on average, don’t beat the stock market.”
Story at...
Even
the very rich should invest in broad-market index funds — here’s why
RETIREE FINANCIAL REGRETS (Moneywise)
“1. I didn’t start saving early enough...
2. I was too conservative with my investments...
3. I didn’t have a cushion for life’s curve balls...
4. I underestimated health care costs...
5. I blew through my retirement fund too fast...
6. I was too cautious and sacrificed my enjoyment...”
Story at...
This
writer talked to American retirees to find their biggest money regrets. Are you
making the same mistakes?
FED COMMENTS (MSN)
“The economy [is] growing, but not fast… except in the
area of the AI build out, which is just going really strong pretty much [in]
many parts of the country,” [Fed Chair ]Powell said. That has created
strong demand for AI-related skills while leaving other areas of hiring
stalled, a reality which Powell stressed that the Fed has little ability to
change. “Our tools work on demand—basically lower interest rates, higher
interest rates,” he said. When there are “structural changes” to the economy,
there isn’t much more the Fed can do. “We can’t fix the education
system,” he said. “That’s for legislators and the private sector. But it
matters enormously for the future of our economy.” – Story at...
Jerome
Powell says Gen Z without tech skills are getting crushed in the ’low-hire,
low-fire’ job market—and colleges are failing them
NEW HOME SALES / BUILDING PERMITS (CNBC)
“Sales of newly built homes rose a much
larger-than-expected 20.5% in August compared with July to the highest level
since January 2022...Single-family housing starts and permits slowed in August
both from July and from August of last year.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/24/august-new-home-sales-soar.html
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.6 million barrels from the
previous week. At 414.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MORE POWER COMING ONLINE (EIA)
Map from...
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6638.
-VIX declined about 3% to 16.18. (Those Options Players
can’t make up their minds.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.149%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +3 to Zero (Equal Bull indicators and Bear indicators) and remains a
Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of
the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish
sign.
Tuesday there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a
potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed
when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of
the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced
traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in
conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance
or technical
studies.” – Investopedia.
My rule is that this signal remains in place for
10-days or until the high of the Outside reversal Day is exceeded.
Declining indicators are concerning, but there are plenty
of bull indicators so no need to panic. Still, a drop below zero is sometimes a
sign of trouble coming.
So far, breadth is ok except that some early warning
breadth indicators, such as the McClellan Oscillator, have turned bearish.
If it continues, how far will the decline go? The best
guess would be that the 50-dMA will hold.
Currently, the 50-dMA is about 6450 or about 3% below today’s close. The
lower trendline is higher and that is also a level of strong support.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish, I don’t expect a big correction,
but I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
