ISM Non-Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
“What if I persuaded my caucus to say I’m going to shut the government down, I am going to not pay our bills unless I get my way? It’s a politics of idiocy, of confrontation, of paralysis.” – Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) complaining about the Republican led shutdown in 2013. (from CNN)
 
DO DEMOCRATS SUPPORT GIVING HEALTH COVEREGE TO ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS? (Fox)
"Raise your hand if your government plan would provide coverage for undocumented immigrants," NBC News anchor Savannah Guthrie asked while moderating the June 2019 debate followed by all ten Democrats on stage raising their hands.” Story at...
Unearthed debate clip goes viral against Dems as illegal immigrant health coverage becomes top issue
 
WHY QATAR CHANGED COURSE ON HAMAS (WSJ – Excerpt)
“It is too early to know if there will be an agreement to end the war in Gaza, and if so whether it will be implemented. But there is reason for President Trump’s optimism that Hamas might release hostages, give up its weapons and leave power. Change is afoot not in Gaza but in Doha—the government of Qatar is pressuring its protégés to accept the deal.
The regime, which thwarted the last hostage deal, changed its mind because the war has reached its home. After the Israel Defense Forces operated in five Muslim capitals—Gaza, Beirut, Damascus, Sana’a, and Tehran—it hit Doha... 
Qatar is part of the problem, not the solution. Israel’s decision to strike there with quiet American approval marked a crucial moment in the war. It signaled that between the West and fundamentalist terror one must choose a side.” - Amit Segal, chief political commentator on Israel’s Channel 12 News and author of “A Call at 4 AM: Thirteen Prime Ministers and the Crucial Decisions that Shaped Israeli Politics,” forthcoming Oct. 14.” – Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/why-qatar-changed-course-on-hamas-20dff709?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgCACqY7RxOWA5Caetac88I-K8ojXycakjn5K9M_4lcgml2rFWoAnfzcl9WrSU%3D&gaa_ts=68e01907&gaa_sig=_KQ0ZfKdi-8rdNSgl3nNGg0e0oFvjBBxpPWMCUSoM0M_y2zY-ptEAm8zjJG0bNaY_HOixPsGLa_i1n6aHG2_hQ%3D%3D
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the services sector was unchanged in September, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® reading of 50 percent was at the breakeven point between expansion and contraction for the first time since January 2010... Commentary in general indicated moderate or weak growth, with more isolated observations of supplier delivery challenges. Employment continues to be in contraction territory, thanks to a combination of delayed hiring efforts and difficulty finding qualified staff.” Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/september/
 
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING / PAYROLL REPORT – Not available due to Government shutdown.
“The release of U.S. jobs data typically has traders and investors glued to their screens at 8:30 am waiting for the all-important numbers. This Friday, however, is giving some a sudden surplus of free time along with the problem of trying to piece together the economic jigsaw puzzle from other sources.” From Reuters at...
https://www.reuters.com/business/payroll-data-ice-gives-wall-street-newfound-free-time-big-problem-reading-2025-10-03/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was little changed (up 1 pt) at 6716.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 16.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.121% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +2 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), and remained a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it is now flat – a Neutral sign.
 
At today’s high, the S&P 500 was 11.9% above its 200-dMA. The Index closed 11.4% above its 200-day. For my purposes, when the S&P 500 is 12% above its 200-dMA, it is too stretched and issues a bearish signal. I don’t act on one signal, but it does warn that it may not be a good time to add new money to stocks.
 
At the high today, the S&P 500 was at its upper trendline. That is another issue that is a concern when considering adding to stock holdings.
 
There was another up-day Friday, though just barely. The S&P 500 has had 6 straight days up.  As noted yesterday, that sort of action suggests a down-day Monday.  We also note that 7 of the last 10 have been up, but that is not enough to suggest a more significant reversal.
 
Same as yesterday: The S&P 500 made a new high today. 5.9% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. This is below average, but not enough for this indicator to send a correction warning.
 
I’m fully invested, but I have not seen enough to put any additional cash holdings into stocks. “Cash” in my money market is still earning 3.9%. So, the trick is to remain patient.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.