... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
“What if I persuaded my caucus to say I’m going to shut the government down, I am going to not pay our bills unless I get my way? It’s a politics of idiocy, of confrontation, of paralysis.” – Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) complaining about the Republican led shutdown in 2013. (from CNN)
 
CAN DEMS BREAK FREE OF THE LEFT? / THE SHUTDOWN (WSJ)
“It’s official: The U.S. government is shut down. It’s a staggering display of ineptitude from a Congress that can’t pass a budget and can’t even agree to keep the government funded at roughly its current spending level while the parties work out differences... Three Democrats came over, but the rest refused. They want to make Covid-era enhanced subsidies for ObamaCare health plans permanent, at the cost of $450 billion over the next decade. Republicans argue the subsidies were always meant to be temporary and should be allowed to expire.” – Karl Rove, senior adviser, and deputy chief of staff for President George W. Bush and is author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015). Opiion At...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/can-democrats-break-free-of-the-left-dc202c58?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgTY1TXYzN4LHzhO7HeXhib_0tTXVdzu8bugRyFAJpLvNWx4guJWDGhfiYonHs%3D&gaa_ts=68deaf13&gaa_sig=LBA_7M9mCjUrUr2MnX8C2DWYhB8yjWs7Zl_LTGmL0Hiv7xF-gftRDN8t2QC4uBNo3t9wEPgBPQXGQq-wfbUZSQ%3D%3D
 
HIT CONGRESS WHERE IT HURTS (WSJ)
“...For every week beyond the deadline [to keep Government I operation], each congressman’s compensation would be reduced by 10%. That would require additional legislation, but wouldn’t it enjoy near-universal public support? Either do your job or don’t get paid—rules the rest of us live by.” - Hugh Stafford, letters to the editor, WSJ
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS / FACTORY ORDERS – Not available due to Government shutdown.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6715.
-VIX rose about 2% to 16.63.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.085% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +6 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), and slipped to a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.
 
The S&P 500 has had 5 straight days up.  That sort of action suggests a down-day Friday.  We also note that 7 of the last 10 have been up, but that is not enough to suggest a more significant reversal.
 
Same as yesterday: The S&P 500 made a new high today. 4.6% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. This is below average, but not enough for this indicator to send a correction warning.
 
Again, there was high, unchanged volume Thursday. I know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are now mixed. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
 
Seems like I have been saying this for a while: I am still waiting for indicators to improve further before I add to stock holdings. Indicators are Neutral and the 10-day is still headed down.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.