ADP Employment Change ... Chicago PMI ... EIA Crude Inventories … Coronavirus (Covid-19) … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway

 

“In my decades of investing experience, I have not seen such mindless and uninformed speculation as I have witnessed recently. Indeed, in nominal dollar terms...it is far in excess of the dot.com boom.” – Doug Cass.

 

“The Senate ought not act rashly by changing its rules to satisfy a strong-willed majority acting in the heat of the moment…Proponents of the ‘nuclear option’ argue that their proposal is simply the latest iteration of a growing trend towards majoritarianism in the Senate. God save us from that fate, if it is true…Adopting the ‘nuclear option’ would change this fundamental understanding and unbroken practice of what the Senate is all about. Senators would start thinking about changing other rules when they became “inconvenient.” …Altering Senate rules to help in one political fight or another could become standard operating procedure, which, in my view, would be disastrous.” - Senator Joe Biden defending the filibuster in 2005.

 

“The foundation for the filibuster today can be traced to an argument by former Vice President Aaron Burr that led to a change in the early 1800s. The minority has used versions of the rule to block or force consensus on controversial legislation, ranging from war actions to oil mandates. It was not created in the Jim Crow era.” – From... https://jonathanturley.org/2021/03/29/democrats-cannot-erase-the-history-or-hypocrisy-of-the-filibuster/

 

“After POTUS Joe Biden denounced the rampant abuse of the filibuster last year, we did some digging. Republicans used it once. Democrats used it 327 times.” – John Roberts, Fox News

 

ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (ADP)

“Private sector employment increased by 517,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP® National Employment Report...“We saw marked improvement in March’s labor market data, reporting the strongest gain since September 2020,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Job growth in the service sector significantly outpaced its recent monthly average, led with notable increase by the leisure and hospitality industry.” Press release at...

https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/March/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-March2021-Final-Press-Release.pdf

 

CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)

“The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, jumped to 66.3 in March from 59.5 in February, which is in expansion territory and its highest since July 2018. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.” Analysis at...

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/03/31/chicago-pmi-highest-since-july-2018?topic=covid-19-coronavirus-coverage

 

EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)

“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 501.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year.” Press release at...

https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

 

BLAIN’S MORNING PORRIDGE – THE TAIL THAT WAGS THE DOG (Morning Porridge)

“I was talking to a fund manager y’day who told me her kid’s nanny has lost money on Bitcoin – bot high and sold low. As Ben Graham might have said; “when the shoe-shine boy tells you he’s bought Ethereum and digital NFTs, it’s time to sell.” The current market has got 1929, 1987, 2000 writ in bold blood red letters all across it.” Commentary at...

https://morningporridge.com/blog/blains-morning-porridge/the-tail-that-wags-the-dog/

 

INCREDIBLE SHRINKING INCOME INEQUALITY (WSJ)

“The refrain is all too familiar: Widening income inequality is a fatal flaw in capitalism and an “existential” threat to democracy. From 1967 to 2017, income inequality in the U.S. spiked 21.4%, and everyone from U.S. senators to the pope says it’s an urgent problem. Yet the data upon which claims about income inequality are based are profoundly flawed...income inequality is lower than it was 50 years ago.” -  Phil Gramm and John Early. (Mr. Gramm is a former chairman of the Senate Banking Committee and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Early served twice as assistant commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.) Commentary at...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/incredible-shrinking-income-inequality-11616517284

 

CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)

Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as of 5:45pm Wednesday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green. Today’s number of new cases, 61,600, is closer to the 10-day average . 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS

-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 3984.

-VIX dipped about 3% to 18.96.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.745%.

 

The S&P 500 made a new-high today and the % of new-highs on the NYSE looks about average which is good. The Index still looks like it can make 4100. Will it go higher? We’ll check the numbers when the Index gets there. Breadth is weak with the % of issues advancing on the NYSE now at 47.9% over the last 10-days. That is a 10-day number so I won’t get too worried yet.   

 

The daily sum of 20 Indicators remained +1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from -23 to -26 (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.

 

The Long Term NTSM indicator ensemble remained BUY. Price & VIX are bullish; Volume & Sentiment are neutral.

 

I remain Bullish.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading

ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.

 

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. 

 

Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  

 

As of 9 March, my stock-allocation is about 60% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.

 

As a retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out of the question.

 

The markets have not retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.

Consumer Confidence ... Georgia’s Voting Law … Coronavirus (Covid-19) … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway

 

“In my decades of investing experience, I have not seen such mindless and uninformed speculation as I have witnessed recently. Indeed, in nominal dollar terms...it is far in excess of the dot.com boom.” – Doug Cass.

 

“The Senate ought not act rashly by changing its rules to satisfy a strong-willed majority acting in the heat of the moment…Proponents of the ‘nuclear option’ argue that their proposal is simply the latest iteration of a growing trend towards majoritarianism in the Senate. God save us from that fate, if it is true…Adopting the ‘nuclear option’ would change this fundamental understanding and unbroken practice of what the Senate is all about. Senators would start thinking about changing other rules when they became “inconvenient.” …Altering Senate rules to help in one political fight or another could become standard operating procedure, which, in my view, would be disastrous.” - Senator Joe Biden defending the filibuster in 2005.

 

“The foundation for the filibuster today can be traced to an argument by former Vice President Aaron Burr that led to a change in the early 1800s. The minority has used versions of the rule to block or force consensus on controversial legislation, ranging from war actions to oil mandates. It was not created in the Jim Crow era.” – From... https://jonathanturley.org/2021/03/29/democrats-cannot-erase-the-history-or-hypocrisy-of-the-filibuster/

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board via PRnewswire)

“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® surged in March to its highest reading in a year, after a modest increase in February. The Index now stands at 109.7 (1985=100), up from 90.4 in February...‘Consumer Confidence increased to its highest level since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "Consumers' assessment of current conditions and their short-term outlook improved significantly, an indication that economic growth is likely to strengthen further in the coming months. Consumers' renewed optimism boosted their purchasing intentions for homes, autos and several big-ticket items. However, concerns of inflation in the short-term rose, most likely due to rising prices at the pump, and may temper spending intentions in the months ahead.’" Press release at...

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-consumer-confidence-index-surged-in-march-301258578.html

 

JIM EAGLE AND GEORGIA’S VOTING LAW (WSJ)

“Georgia passed its over-hyped voting law on Thursday, and the news was met with more of the same. President Biden said at his news conference that the voting bills percolating in GOP state Legislatures are “un-American,” “sick,” “pernicious,” and worse: “This makes Jim Crow look like Jim Eagle.”

C’mon, man, as Mr. Biden likes to say. The comparison is grotesque, and seeing that only requires swimming sideways for a minute to escape the rip current of the media narrative. Take a look at what’s actually in the legislation—and what isn’t.

Georgia’s new law leaves in place Sunday voting, a point of contention with earlier proposals... [it] expand[s] weekend early voting statewide, by requiring two Saturdays instead of only one under current law...[it] also leaves in place no-excuses absentee voting...it gets rid of signature matching, so election workers aren’t trying to verify mail ballots by comparing John Hancocks...Instead of signature matching, voters will submit a state ID number with their mail ballots or applications...Much hay is being made about a provision that prevents third parties from giving gifts, including “food and drink” to those standing in line at the polls. But the point is to prevent activists from showing up in union shirts—or National Rifle Association shirts, for that matter—and passing out drinks and snacks, with some subtle electioneering thrown in...Democrats aren’t smearing Georgia because they believe their “Jim Crow” nonsense. Their strategy is to play the race card to justify breaking the Senate filibuster, so they can jam through their election reform known as H.R.1 and overrule 50 state voting laws.” See the full piece at... 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/jim-eagle-and-georgias-voting-law-11616799451

My cmt: Did I say I hate all politicians?

 

CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)

Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as of 6:15pm Tuesday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green. There was another big jump in numbers today. The 10-dMA of new daily cases is about 60,000. Today there were over 90,000 new cases.  

“A single dose of Pfizer’s or Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine was 80% effective in preventing coronavirus infections, according to a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study of vaccinated health-care workers.”  Story at...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-study-shows-single-dose-of-pfizer-or-moderna-covid-vaccines-was-80percent-effective.html

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS

-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.1% to 3971.

-VIX dipped about 5% to 19.61.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.722%.

 

On the NYSE, advancers outpaced decliners by nearly 2 to 1; advancing volume outpaced declining volume by more than 2 to one; VIX declined 5%; and the spread between new-highs and new-lows was +82. These are good numbers and it looks like we’ll see a bullish day Wednesday.

 

The daily sum of 20 Indicators dipped from -3 to +1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from -16 to -23 (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.

 

The Long Term NTSM indicator ensemble remained BUY. Price & VIX are bullish; Volume & Sentiment are neutral.

 

I remain Bullish.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading

ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals improved to NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. 

 

Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  

 

As of 9 March, my stock-allocation is about 60% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.

 

As a retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out of the question.

 

The markets have not retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.

CASS Freight Index ... Ghost of 2013 ... Time to Buy Bonds? … Is it 2013 Again? ... Coronavirus (Covid-19) … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway

 

“This country was founded by the bayonet; it survives by the ballot.  Those who falsely disparage the honesty of our elections are striking a blow at the foundations of our nation and should be charged with sedition.” – Meade Stith

 

“In my decades of investing experience, I have not seen such mindless and uninformed speculation as I have witnessed recently. Indeed, in nominal dollar terms...it is far in excess of the dot.com boom.” – Doug Cass.

 

CASS FREIGHT INDEX (CASS Information Sysetms)

“The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® was impacted by the polar vortex event in mid-February, slowing the y/y growth rate to 4.1% in February...The significant supply side issues will only temporarily belie the strong demand environment, and considerable acceleration in freight demand is still most likely. With much easier prior-year comparisons ahead, if the Cass shipments index just takes a normal seasonal pattern from here, it will be up over 25% y/y in Q2.”  Press release at...

https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/february-2021

 

THE GHOST OF 2013 (NorthmanTrader)

“What have we learned so far in 2021? Simple: The relentless liquidity machine remains in full control. In addition to renewed and larger fiscal stimulus central bankers, including the Fed, have made it abundantly clear they will keep printing no matter what the data shows, no matter how much inflation there is (“let it run hot”). The Fed itself continues on its $120B per month QE program while the ECB has accelerated their program...perhaps the best analog to the current action is the ghost of 2013...So if 2013 repeats where can this all head? Steady up of course with 50MA/100MA tags along the way.” Commentary at...

https://northmantrader.com/2021/03/26/the-ghost-of-2013/

 

PENSION FUNDS HAVE TO BUY BONDS TO REBALANCE PORTFOLIOS- THAT MIGHT BE GOOD FOR STOCKS (CNBC)

“Pension funds and other major investors should be big buyers of bonds during the next week or so, as they rebalance their holdings to make up for the bond market’s first quarter sell-off. That could send bond yields lower, at least temporarily.” Story at...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/23/pension-funds-have-to-buy-bonds-to-rebalance-portfolios-and-that-might-be-good-for-stocks.html?recirc=taboolainternal

 

TIME TO BUY BONDS (Real Investment Advice)

Best Tweets for The Week: 3-26-21 (Real Investment Advice)

Story at...

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/whatyoumissed-on-ria-this-week-3-26-21/

 

 

WHY I HATE POLITICIANS

While Biden has claimed the migrant surge is Trump’s fault, one question from ABC blew that theory out of the water:

“Cecilia Vega of ABC News politely nailed him to the wall on a key failure of his border policy. She told an affecting story of meeting a nine-year-old boy at the border who had walked to the U.S. from Honduras, and said that when she called the boy’s mother, the woman explained that she had sent him to the U.S. because she believed that Biden would let him into the country. This, of course, is exactly why there’s been a surge at the border. Biden created an exemption in Title 42 — the public-health authority that President Trump had used to turn back migrants during the pandemic — specifically for minors, and predictably there’s been a surge of minors.” Story at...

https://www.aol.com/news/biden-woeful-press-conference-230539827.html

For the most part, however, the press loved Biden’s “honest responses” and his lack of “sideshow” performance (compared to Trump). Unfortunately, fact-checking his press-conference revealed a Liar-in-Chief typical of all Politicians and especially recent Presidents. See FactCheck.org for a run-down of Biden Press Conference lies at...

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/03/factchecking-bidens-first-press-conference/

 

CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)

Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as of 5:45pm Monday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS

-Monday the S&P 500 fell about 0.1% to 3971.

-VIX rose about 10% to 20.74.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.715%.

 

Given the big up-day Friday, the drop today was expected.

 

The VIX was up 10% Monday, so perhaps the Options Folks have decided the pullback is not over. On a longer-term basis, VIX is falling and is giving a bullish signal.

 

The daily sum of 20 Indicators dipped from -1 to -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from -5 to -16 (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.

 

The Long Term NTSM indicator ensemble remained BUY. Price & VIX are bullish; Volume & Sentiment are neutral.

 

I remain Bullish.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading

ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

MONDAY 2 MONTH GAIN

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY 2 MONTH GAIN

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEGATIVE on the market.

 

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  

 

Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  

 

As of 9 March, my stock-allocation is about 60% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.

 

As a retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out of the question.

 

The markets have not retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.

Personal Income ... Personal Spending ... PCE Prices ... Michigan Sentiment … Coronavirus (Covid-19) … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway

 

“This country was founded by the bayonet; it survives by the ballot.  Those who falsely disparage the honesty of our elections are striking a blow at the foundations of our nation and should be charged with sedition.” – Meade Stith

 

“In my decades of investing experience, I have not seen such mindless and uninformed speculation as I have witnessed recently. Indeed, in nominal dollar terms...it is far in excess of the dot.com boom.” – Doug Cass.

 

PERSONAL SPENDING / INCOME / PCE PRICES (CNBC)

“U.S. consumer spending fell by the most in 10 months in February as a cold snap gripped many parts of the country and the boost from a second round of stimulus checks to middle- and lower-income households faded, though the decline is likely temporary. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, dropped 1.0% last month... Personal income tumbled 7.1%...The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding the volatile food and energy component gained 0.1%...” Story at...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/26/personal-income-february-2021.html

 

UNIV OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (ForexLive)

“Consumer sentiment continued to rise in late March, reaching its highest level in a year due to the third disbursement of relief checks and better than anticipated vaccination progress.”  Story at... 

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/university-of-michigan-sentiment-index-for-march-f-been-836-versus-836-estimate-20210326

 

CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)

Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as of 8:15pm Friday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS

-Friday the S&P 500 fell about 1.7% to 3975, a new all-time high.

-VIX fell about 5% to 18.86.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.685%.

 

I’d say we got confirmation that the pullback is over – we made a new all-time-high on the S&P 500 and market internals improved significantly for the day!

 

The chart was a worry though. 50+ points up in the last hour of trading? Can you say panic buying???? Was it a blow-off top? I don’t know - we’ll find out in the days to come.

Today was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Data shows that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.  Statistically-significant, up-days almost always coincide with tops, but not all statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. Today could be a top, but other than the market being stretched (as it has been for some time), there are no other top-indicators. We have to suspect that there is more to go in this bull run.

 

Here’s Friday’s run-down of some important indicators. These tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are somewhat different than the 20 that I report on daily.

 

BULL SIGNS

-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.

-The Smart Money (late-day action) is now headed up. This indicator is based on the Smart Money Indicator (a variant of the indicator developed by Don Hayes).

-The 50-dMA % of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.

-The 100-dMA of the % of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.

-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 26 Mar. (It was bearish for a few days this week.)

-VIX is falling sharply - bullish.

-Distribution warnings. As of yesterday, there had been 9 Distribution days in the last 25-trading days. Today, there was a follow-thru day that cancels all of the Distribution Days and prints a bull sign.

-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA. 

-The size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.

-The S&P 500 is outperforming Utilities ETF (XLU).

 

NEUTRAL

-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio) is neutral.

-Bollinger Bands neutral.

-Breadth on the NYSE compared to the S&P 500 index is neutral.

-The Fosback High-Low Logic Index is neutral.

-RSI.

-Non-crash Sentiment indicator remains neutral, but it is too bullish and that means it is leaning bearish.

-The market has broadened out; 5.6% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high 17 Mar. (there is no bullish signal for this indicator.) Currently, the value is about average, but this number has been falling. It was almost 16%, 2 weeks ago; then 7%, 7 session ago. If it continues to fall at new-all-time highs for the S&P 500, it does not bode well for the bull market.

-We’ve seen 5 up-days over the last 10-days. Neutral.

-There have been 11 up-days over the last 20 days. Neutral

-Statistically, the S&P 500 gave a panic-signal, 27 January. The signal has expired.

-8 Mar, the 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5 standard deviations very bullish, but the signal has expired.

-There has been 1 Statistically Significant day in the last 15-days. This signal can be Bearish or Bullish. Now it’s neutral.

-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are outperforming the S&P 500, but the trend is down. Let’s call this one neutral.

-53% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days. (I had a typo I this stat last week. It didn’t change the total count for last week.)

 

BEAR SIGNS

-The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%

-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.

-The S&P 500 is 12.4% above its 200-dMA (Sell point is 12%.); when Sentiment is considered, the signal is also bearish.

-McClellan Oscillator is negative.

-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 23 Mar

-Short-term new-high/new-low data is falling.

-Long-term new-high/new-low data is falling.

-My Money Trend indicator is bearish.

 

On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top of the Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there are 8 bear-signs and 10 bull-signs. Last week, there were 7 bear-signs and 10 bull-signs.

 

The list is little changed from last week. More importantly, we saw some big positive moves today in price and market internals, including new-high/new-low numbers. The bullish move today cancels other indicator concerns.

 

The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -6 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from +6 to -5 (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.

 

The Long Term NTSM indicator ensemble remained BUY. Price & VIX are bullish; Volume & Sentiment are neutral.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading

ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEGATIVE on the market.

 

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. 

 

Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  

 

As of 9 March, my stock-allocation is about 60% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.

 

As a retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out of the question.

 

The markets have not retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.