Navigate the Stock Market

Friday, August 7, 2026

Payroll Report … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

THE FILIBUSTER DESTROYED DEBATE (WSJ Letters)
“Sen. John Curtis, my colleague from Utah, proves reasonable in defending Senate norms and procedure in his op-ed “I Won’t Change the Filibuster” (July 31). However, Americans should understand how abuse of the filibuster has killed real debate, negotiation and results. Keeping the status quo can’t solve this crisis... In 1964 opponents of the Civil Rights Act attempted to stop the legislation with a filibuster. The bill’s supporters were initially far short of the 67 votes needed to break the filibuster. But by forcing open debate, the Senate finally forced an answer on Jim Crow.
Today, that kind of debate never happens. We don’t force compromise. We don’t lock ourselves in a room to negotiate until we have a deal. The filibuster is a muscle we never exercise. It has atrophied. Senators have lost the implicit understanding that a debate needs to happen before it can end. This legislative body needs to deliver results, not fail while adhering to a prohibitive process. We should end the filibuster and pass the SAVE America Act—or require debate until exhaustion or satisfaction.” - Sen. Rick Scott (R., Fla.) letter to the WSJ.

My cmt: The filibuster requires 60 votes to end debate and results in a more moderate Senate. The rule gives the minority party more power. Without the filibuster, laws will radically change with every new administration when the Senate and President are in the same party.
Keeping the filibuster far outweighs the perceived benefits of passing the SAVE Act. The SAVE act solves problems that are mostly based on Trump’s stolen election story, i.e., it solves problems that don’t exist.
As Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski wrote: “…the SAVE America Act isn’t a simple fix to safeguard elections, as proponents claim. It would impose costly new barriers and prevent some, perhaps many, from voting, while also creating chaos before the November elections…”

PAYROLL REPORT (CNBC)
“The U.S. economy saw an unexpected declined in jobs during July while the unemployment rate edged lower, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday in a snapshot that showed a slowing employment picture.
Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 23,000 for the month…” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jobs-report-july-2026.html
My cmt: A tightening labor market suggests no rate hike by the Fed. For now, bad news is good news.

FAUCI IN CONTEMPT (WSJ)
“A Republican-led Senate committee voted Thursday to hold Dr. Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress for refusing to answer lawmakers’ questions about his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, escalating a yearslong GOP effort to scrutinize one of the nation’s top former health officials…Senators voted 8-5 on the resolution, along party lines, which was brought by the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee’s chairman, Sen. Rand Paul (R., Ky.). Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/senate-panel-votes-to-hold-fauci-in-contempt-for-refusing-to-answer-questions-974dde4c
My comment: Politicians seem to support the Constitution only when it works in their favor.

Government employees can plead the Fifth and refuse to answer questions, but they can also be fired for failing to answer. (During my 35-year career in Government service, I was involved in several investigations. In some cases, criminal liability was in question, e.g., investigation of theft.) Fauci was a government employee, but not now. I question attempts to hold Fauci in contempt.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 7758.
-VIX declined about 2% to 14.90.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.649% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +14 to +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

The indicators are overwhelmingly bullish, but there were some troubling signs. The number of new 52-week highs at today’s new all-time high for the S&P 500 was weak and on the borderline of issuing a concerning warning. There were only 84 new, 52-week highs. By itself, it suggests a correction of greater than 10% is on the horizon. In addition, there was almost a new Hindenburg Omen. I say “almost” because the McClellan Oscillator turned bullish and that blocks the Hindenburg warning.

The positive Oscillator also suggests that a correction is not currently in sight as does the indicator spread – we won’t see a correction with a bullish spread of +17 for the 50-Indicator Spread. That doesn’t mean that it couldn’t go south in a hurry if the Iran conflict isn’t satisfactorily resolved.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish, watching markets climb the wall of worry.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, August 6, 2026

Jobless Claims … Productivity … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

JUDGES SUE OVER TRUMP’S SLUSH FUND (Raw Story)
“Thirty-five former federal judges are fighting to preserve sanctions against President Donald Trump's legal team over what a federal court found was a "collusive" IRS lawsuit used to funnel $1.776 billion in taxpayer money to his allies.
U.S. District Judge Kathleen Williams, an Obama appointee in Miami, issued a 56-page ruling on July 13 finding that Trump had acted in "bad faith" and filed the lawsuit for an "improper purpose." She sanctioned his attorneys and barred all parties from ever citing the deal as a legitimate settlement in any official proceeding….
"Plaintiffs acted in bad faith and for an improper purpose by 'collusively filing a lawsuit with claims subject to multiple dispositive defenses solely to provide cover for a collusive settlement,'" the judges wrote, citing Williams' ruling…
…The deal that followed established a $1.776 billion fund for Trump's allies and shielded Trump, his sons, and the Trump Organization from future IRS tax audits.” Story at…
Trump scheme at risk as 35 ex-federal judges intervene over 'collusive' conduct
My cmt: Reports are that the fund has been scrapped. Trump still supports it and may try to bring it back next year.

JOBLESS CLAIMS / PRODUCTIVITY (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, while layoffs dropped to a two-year low in July, consistent with a stable labor market…worker productivity grew faster than expected in the second quarter, curbing gains in labor costs…Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000 for the week ended August 1…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/us-weekly-jobless-claims-edge-up-planned-layoffs-decline-july-2026-08-06/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7710.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.15. (About 20% of the time VIX and S&P 500 move in the same direction; a CNBC pundit suggested recently that VIX is falling due to strong call-buying {a bet that stocks will rise}.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.674% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +19 to +14 (14 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Bollinger Bands are no longer overbought.

A few worrisome signs:
- Late-day action remains bearish. I use a variation of the Hayes Smart Money Index for this signal.
- McClellan Oscillator turned bearish.
- Since the Oscillator turned bearish, the Hindenburg Omen is back in play. (The bearish signal remains for 30-days as long as the Oscillator is positive.
- New high data has weakened.

19 bull-indicators and 5 bear-indicators is quite bullish; I won’t pay much attention to the bear signals.

The biggest worry is the dispute in Iran. What’s next? MY guess was that Trump’s ego would not let him back off, but the news suggests a settlement might be near. We’ll see.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Jobless Claims … ADP Employment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +17 to +19 (19 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Iran’s bet that the US will allow them to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz (see story link above) is a high-risk move; it threatens more military action from the US. For us, it also threatens another reversal higher in oil prices and, most likely, lower in the stock market.

A few worrisome signs remain:
- Bollinger Bands were overbought again Wednesday. RSI is not overbought. I use these signals together. If they are not both overbought, I ignore it.
- Late-day action is bearish. I use a variation of the Hayes Indicator for this signal.
“The Don Hayes Smart Money Index (SMI)—originally created by Lynn Elgert and popularized by Don Hayes—is a technical indicator that compares investor behavior at the start of the trading day to behavior at the end of the day, helping traders spot institutional accumulation or distribution.” From…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/smart-money-index-smi-145933179.html

With 21 bull-indicators and 2 bear-indicators, I won’t pay much attention to the bear signals.

The biggest worry is the dispute in Iran. What’s next? Trump’s ego is not likely to let him back off.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish, but markets could still get Trumped.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Factory Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

I AM HAVING FORMATTING PROBLEMS COURTESY OF BLOGSPOT. LINKS ARE NOT LIVE ALONG WITH OTHER FORMATTING ISSUES - MY APOLOGIES.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

WEALTH CREATION (WSJ -Excerpt)
“…Before the Industrial Revolution, fortunes were based on land or trade. Energy was provided by muscle power, windmills and water wheels. Then in 1781 James Watt patented a rotary steam engine that could turn a shaft and thus power a factory. Unlike water wheels, steam engines could be scaled to almost any size. The Industrial Revolution moved into high gear because energy was suddenly cheap. That reduced the price of industrial goods for everyone while increasing profit for the owners… the sewing machine reduced the time needed to make a shirt from 16 hours to two, greatly reducing clothing costs. Isaac Singer died very wealthy… Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak… founded Apple and developed the first mass-market personal computer to reach consumers. Microsoft provided software to IBM, and Bill Gates became, for a time, the wealthiest man in the world. Thanks to these men, school kids today carry around more computing power in their backpacks than the Pentagon could have afforded in the 1950s…
…wealth creation is ultimately capital formation. Billionaires don’t keep their wealth locked in Scrooge McDuck-style money bins. They invest it in ever more wealth-creating enterprises.
Capital and labor are the two fundamental inputs into an economy. Many on the left, unable to distinguish between wealth aggregation and wealth creation, want to tax wealth heavily, which would reduce the available capital needed to make the economy grow. If there was ever a prime example of ideology blinding people to reality, this is it.” – John Steele Gordon, author of “An Empire of Wealth: The Epic History of American Economic Power.” Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-brief-history-of-wealth-creation-32bd917a

“It was Thomas Edison who brought us electricity, not the Sierra Club. It was the Wright brothers who got us off the ground, not the Federal Aviation Administration. It was Henry Ford who ended the isolation of millions of Americans by making the automobile affordable, not Ralph Nader. Those who have helped the poor the most have not been those who have gone around loudly expressing 'compassion' for the poor, but those who found ways to make industry more productive and distribution more efficient, so that the poor of today can afford things that the affluent of yesterday could only dream about.” ― Thomas Sowell

FACTORY ORDERS (RTT News)
“A report released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday showed an unexpected decrease in new orders for U.S. manufactured goods in the month of June.
The Commerce Department said factory orders fell by 0.3 percent in June after tumbling by a revised 1.1 percent in May.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3675273/u-s-factory-orders-unexpectedly-dip-0-3-in-june.aspx

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.5% to 7601.
-VIX declined about 0.8% to 15.86.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.686% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 21 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +15 to +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

“Looking good, Billy Ray! Feeling good, Louis!”

Today was another huge day as markets raced higher. I was tempted to add to stock holdings, but I hate to chase. Also, there were a few worrisome signs; there almost always are:
- Bollinger Bands were overbought Tuesday.
- Tuesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time, so I may get a chance to add stocks/ETFs later at a lower price…or not. This rally looks strong.
-The S&P 500 is 10% above its 200-dMA. 10-15% above the 200-day is getting high and a 12% value sends a bearish signal. This value can get all the way to 20% after a major bottom. We haven’t seen a major bottom, but until the past several days, the S&P 500 hadn’t gone anywhere since May – “Sell in May and go away?” – or maybe it was a war that spiked energy prices?

I wrote yesterday: “I may add more to the overall portfolio. If I do, it would be in SPY, the S&P 500 ETF. I’d prefer to add larger, high-quality stocks unless breadth improves. Breadth is somewhat weak now, but not yet giving a sell signal. This may be due to recent market weakness so I ‘m not too worried about it. It will be more meaningful when the S&P 500 makes a new high.”
The S&P 500 made a new, all-time high today, Tuesday. 4.7% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today. That is well below the 5-year average for this stat, but it is still high enough that, when combined with Breadth, it does not suggest a correction in the near future.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, August 3, 2026

ISM Manufacturing … Construction Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

“The one thing I can tell you is for certain; Hasan Piker and James Carville are not going to be in the same political party. One of us is going to leave. It might even be me.” - James Carville, Democratic Strategist.

TRUMP ANTI WEAPONIZATION SLUSH-FUND NOT DEAD YET (CNBC)
“Trump, two of his adult sons and the Trump Organization, along with two of their attorneys, said in a joint filing Friday afternoon that they are appealing Judge Kathleen Williams’ scathing order to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit. Williams had ruled July 13 that the lawsuit, ostensibly stemming from the leak of Trump’s tax returns by an ex-IRS employee years earlier, was in fact brought to provide “judicial legitimacy for a ‘settlement’ that had no viable basis in law or fact.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/31/trump-appeals-irs-lawsuit-blanche-fund.html

THE WORLD OF COUNTERHISTORY (WSJ – Excerpt)
“Mr. Montefiore is a man who treats the sweep of history as his own backyard…his new book is titled “The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East…”
… “I call Gaza a semi-independent ‘statelet,’ and I think that’s important because there’s a pretense now that it was occupied from 2006 to 2023,” Mr. Montefiore says. He points out that since Israel withdrew troops and civilians from Gaza [in 2005] and the Palestinians held elections the following year, Hamas “had had prime minister, ministries, ministers and police.” It also had “what was in effect a formidable army of 40,000 paramilitaries, and it had a foreign policy. It was independent enough to launch a war.” Unlike anywhere else in the world, “it was a base for a military but it eschewed any need to educate or feed its citizens. That was the responsibility of international aid organizations. A very unique arrangement….”
…Mr. Montefiore quotes a Hamas official, Sami Abu Zuhri: “The price of the suffering is worth paying. The benefits are extensive.” Mr. Abu Zuhri added that “the wombs of our women will give birth to twice the number of martyrs.” Israel won “in the pitiful ruins of Gaza,” Mr. Montefiore says. “Hamas won in the West,” in part by controlling the media within Gaza and presenting all losses as civilian, a narrative that proved “irreversible even when Hamas’s allegations were later proven to be untrue.” – Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/we-live-in-a-new-world-of-counterhistory-0156ab8d

ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
“The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 55.6 percent in July, 2.3 percentage points above the June figure and the highest reading since May 2022 (55.9 percent). The overall economy continued in expansion for the 21st month in a row.” Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/july/

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Reuters)
“U.S. spending unexpectedly fell in June…The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday that construction spending dipped 0.1%. Construction spending dropped 3.2% on a year-over-year basis in June…Spending on new single-family housing projects fell…3.3% on a year-over-year basis in June.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-construction-spending-unexpectedly-falls-june-2026-08-03/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.5% to 7601.
-VIX declined about 0.8% to 15.86.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.686% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -6 to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.

A swing from -6 to +15 is an improvement in spread of +21. Looking at the chart above we can see that one has to go back about a year to see that much improvement. When it occurred last August, the S&P 500 was flat for a few weeks and then moved higher. Now, I suspect the Index will continue higher because there is room on the chart before it will reach its upper trend line.

I added more Nvidia today. That pushes my total investment in NVDA to about 9% of my stock portfolio. Advisors would probably recommend that no more than 4 to 5% be invested in any single stock, so I am over invested in NVDA. (4 to 5% implies that 20-25 stocks are the minimum number of stocks required to maintain diversification.)

I may add more to the overall portfolio. If I do, it would be in SPY, the S&P 500 ETF. I’d prefer to add larger, high-quality stocks unless breadth improves. Breadth is somewhat weak now, but not yet giving a sell signal. This may be due to recent market weakness so I ‘m not too worried about it. It will be more meaningful when the S&P 500 makes a new high.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, July 31, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig.” – Blondie, The Good.
SAD HILL CEMETERY (The Guardian)

“…a group of film fans spent two years restoring the cemetery to its former glories. The set, which was built by soldiers in the northern Spanish province of Burgos for Sergio Leone’s classic 1966 spaghetti western, had been forgotten and reclaimed by nature until the Sad Hill Cultural Association stepped in.” Story at…
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2017/jun/22/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-graveyard-back-from-the-dead

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

ANOTHER IMPEACHMENT? (The New Republic)
“It should provide the basis for the first article Democratic Representative Jamie Raskin and his Judiciary Committee draw up. It all has to do with the slush fund. The fund, you’ll recall, was the result of a settlement in a mind-bending legal proceeding in which Trump sued himself: That is, the president of the United States sued the Internal Revenue Service, seeking $10 billion for the (admittedly illegal) leak of some of his tax returns back in 2019. In May, Trump’s Justice Department, led at the time by Blanche as the acting attorney general, settled the suit between Trump the president and Trump’s IRS by establishing a $1.776 billion “anti-weaponization” fund, whose moneys were to go to parties Trump deemed to have been wronged by the deep state—starting of course with Trump himself. It also included a shocking clause granting Trump, his family members, and his companies immunity from prosecution for any tax-related crimes they may have committed before the date of deal.” Story at…
We now have the leading charge in Trump’s next impeachment
My cmt: The Dems would need to take back the House in the upcoming congressional elections to begin impeachment proceedings. The “anti-weaponization” fund was/is an unbelievably outrageous effort by Trump and his cronies. I don’t understand how DOJ has the power to settle this with payments well over a billion dollars. In my opinion, Congress should have been involved, but DOJ disagrees.

“The DOJ asserted that the Attorney General possesses broad inherent authority under existing federal statutes to settle lawsuits filed against the United States. The $1.776 billion was slated to be drawn directly from the U.S. Department of the Treasury Judgment Fund, which is a perpetual funding mechanism meant to satisfy court judgments and approved settlements without requiring immediate, individual congressional appropriations for each case.” - DOJ

“Legal experts and congressional critics argued that using the Judgment Fund to create a multi-billion-dollar administrative compensation program for political allies bypassed core congressional oversight and appropriations powers.” - Congressman Tom Suozzi (D–NY)

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 7490.
-VIX declined about 6% to 15.99. (That’s a 23% decline in 2 days – a bullish sign.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.718% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Internals were weak today. Declining-issues outpaced advancing-issues; down-volume was higher than up-volume; and New-lows outpaced new-highs. We also note that unchanged-volume was high. That can be a sign of investor confusion. Some think that this suggests a reversal in the markets, but there isn’t much correlation of this opinion. It could be an end of quarter stat caused by portfolio shuffling.

While internals were weak on the day, indicators improved.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -9 to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

A couple of important indicators are:
-The McClellan Oscillator indicator is still in negative territory and that keeps the Hindenburg Omen bearish, too. The Oscillator is a breadth indicator so we need to see more new-highs on a daily basis.
-The 5-10-20 Timer indicator remains bearish along with its momentum indicator. If price continues higher, these indicators will improve.

Price improved again as the S&P 500 rose. The S&P 500 climbed 0.2% above its 50-dMA. That’s a good sign, but we still have some mixed signals. Let’s hope indicators give us a better confirmation of recent positive moves in the S&P 500.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)