Thursday, February 12, 2026

Jobless Claims … Existing Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
HINDENBURG OMENS – “I’m baaack” (McClellan Financial Publications)
“The NYSE's daily A-D Line just made a new all-time high on Feb. 4, 2026, which is a statement that liquidity is plentiful.  But just a day later, we have gotten the 3rd Hindenburg Omen within 6 trading days.  This is a message that for all of that supposedly plentiful liquidity, the market has some serious problems…The basic idea for the Hindenburg Omen signal is that during a normal uptrend, there should be more stocks making New Highs than making New Lows.  That is the normal condition.  If you get a condition where the uptrend is still underway, but the numbers of New Lows start perking up, then that is a sign of trouble. “ – Tom McClellan.
hindenburg omen signals over 6 month lookback
Analysis and charts at…
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits decreased by less than expected ‌last week, likely as disruptions from winter storms lingered. Initial claims ‌for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the ​week ended February 7…”
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (NAR)
“Existing-home sales decreased by 8.4% in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. The report provides the real estate ecosystem—including agents, homebuyers and sellers—with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory.
Month-over-month and year-over-year sales fell in all regions.
"The decrease in sales is disappointing. The below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation this January make it harder than usual to assess the underlying driver of the decrease and determine if this month’s numbers are an aberration,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun.” Report from… 
 
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1.6% to 6833.
-VIX rose about 18% to 20.82.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.104% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
 
Hate to see that ugly, down-in-the-morning and down-into-the-close chart.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +6 to -11 (11 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Tom McClellan pointed out a subtlety that suggests another interpretation of the Hindenburg Omen. In the past, I have canceled the Hindenburg signal once the McClellan Oscillator turned positive and left the signal neutral unless there was another Omen.  Tom states that the signal lasts for 30-days whenever the McOsc is negative.  As a result, the Hindenburg can vary between bullish and bearish signals during the 30-days. Since the McClellan Oscillator is now negative, the Omen warning is back and once again giving a bearish signal.
 
VIX is rising quickly and the VIX indicator has turned negative.  This is one of the more reliable indicators.
 
The talking heads keep talking about “rotation” suggesting investors are rotating into other stocks rather than following the high flyers.  I don’t know.  It seems to me that when the leaders fail, it suggests that markets will follow suit.
 
The S&P 500 is 0.9% below the 50-dMA - “Danger Will Robinson.”
 
Levels of support are the 50-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.3% above the 50-dMA and 5.1% above the 200-dMA.
 
While the market doesn’t feel good now, the S&P 500 is only 2.1% below its all-time high. Further, Breadth was good at the all-time high suggesting that if there is a correction, it is likely to be a retreat of less than 10% (from the high) based on past history.
 
Since I don’t anticipate a big decline, I do not plan to reduce stock holdings further unless indicators collapse.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Given the indicators, it is hard to be anything other than Bearish for the short term.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)


My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 


My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Jobless Claims … Unemployment Rate … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PBS)
“U.S. employers added a surprisingly strong 130,000 jobs last month…The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the Labor Department said Wednesday.” Story at…
 
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined slightly to 6941.
-VIX declined about 0.8% to 17.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.172% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +10 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The Bullish divergence in the Lowry Research, Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure indicator has reversed; it is now bearish. 
 
The Ascending Bearish Wedge on the chart currently terminates around 19 March. A breakdown before that date is likely if the S&P 500 is not able to break above the upper trendline.
 
The crunch on the wedge is coming. Which way will the market break? I don’t know so I took some stocks off the table to reduce risk. I am still fully invested for a conservative retiree.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral until the chart resolves…one way or the other.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Cutting Stock Holdings

I reduced stock holdings to about 55% in my portfolio this afternoon. I wanted to reduce risk since the chart still has the bearish ascending wedge. I do not have a sell-signal - this is just risk management. I am fully invested at 55% stocks.
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Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Retail Sales … Business Optimism … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
MASS DEPORTATION HURTS FLORIDA JOBS (WSJ)
“…in May 2023, Florida Republicans passed legislation aimed at countering Joe Biden’s porous border policies.
The law’s centerpiece requires private employers with 25 or more employees to use the federal government’s E-Verify system to confirm the work authorization of new hires…But the E-Verify mandate makes it harder for migrants to work to support themselves, and it adds a burden on employers. E-Verify can also be unreliable because it relies on federal records that aren’t always up to date. That means it can disqualify some immigrants with valid work permits. U.S. Labor Department data suggest that Florida’s E-Verify law has harmed job growth…The lesson for President Trump is that businesses can’t grow if government takes away their workers.” Opinion at…
 
NFIB OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.2 points in January to 99.3 and remained above its 52-year average of 98…While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth…Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales.” Report at…
 
RETAIL SALES (CNBC)
“Consumer activity slowed sharply for the December holiday shopping season amid a spate of rough weather, tariff impact and persistently higher inflation, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Retail sales were flat on the month…” Story at…
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6942.
-VIX rose about 2% to 17.79.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 4.141% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +6 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. (Yesterday’s spread improved because the McClellan Oscillator was positive.) I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign; but it may reverse soon.
 
The Bullish divergence in the Lowry Research, Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure indicator remains; it suggests that the weakness is over. 
 
The Ascending Bearish Wedge on the chart currently terminates around 19 March. A breakdown before that date is likely if the S&P 500 is not able to break above the upper trendline.
 
The crunch on the wedge is coming, but the indicators still look good.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral until the chart resolves…one way or the other.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

                                              

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

  

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Monday, February 9, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
TEAM USA BOOED (WSJ)
“In an unmistakable sign of Europe’s rapidly dimming view on America, the U.S. delegation entered the San Siro stadium here on Friday night to a chorus of boos and disapproving whistles from the international crowd of more than 65,000. The jeering only intensified when Vice President JD Vance appeared on the big screen during Team USA’s arrival.” Story at…
My cmt: This is reporting by the WSJ, a conservative publication. It is amusing to see the MAGA crowd attempt to deny it occurred.
 
WSJ LETTERS – SAT/SUN 7-8 Feb. (WSJ)  
“Lost in Mr. Trump’s tariff regime is any principle or standard. Sold as a reciprocal trade strategy to lower and eliminate tariffs bilaterally, it has morphed into the chaotic, episodic impulses of a president more interested in exercising power than the principle of advancing global free trade…As we await the Supreme Court’s decision on the president’s tariffs, we can hope for a world absent most of them, where solid economic growth is built upon stable trade policy and long-term business planning guided by free-trade principles.” - Tim Parker, CEO, Parker Flavors

 

-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6965.
-VIX fell about 2% to 17.36.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 4.202% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +2 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The Short-term, High/Low logic Index is giving a bearish indication. This indicator usually, but not always, warns during corrections.
 
There was a Bullish divergence in the Lowry Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure indicator; it suggests that the weakness is over.  If that’s correct, we should finally see the S&P 500 break above the upper trend-line in the Bearish ascending wedge. That would be a welcome sign. Otherwise, markets are headed down.
 
The Ascending Wedge currently terminates shortly after 19 March. A breakdown before that date is likely if the S&P 500 is not able to break above the upper trendline. We’re still waiting.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral until the chart resolves…one way or the other.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Friday, February 6, 2026

Sentiment from Univ Michigan … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JUDGE TOSSES MAGA SUIT (Alternet)
“One week after President Donald Trump sent FBI agents to seize Fulton County’s 2020 ballots as part of a criminal probe, a Georgia judge has apparently had it up to here with Trump-style election deniers. “The 2020 election is over,” said Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney, dismissing Trump-supporters’ lawsuit and effort to review ballots and materials they allege would prove Trump should have won Georgia. On top of tossing the suit, the judge ordered the four plaintiffs — consisting of a treasure hunter and members of a Georgia affiliate of the Tea Party Patriots — to pay nearly $40,000 to Fulton County and the county Superior Court clerk’s office for filing the frivolous suit.” Story at…
My cmt: Trump continues his “stolen election” lies. Some of my thoughts are here…
TRUMP STILL CLAIMS MAIL-IN VOTING COST HIM THE 2020 ELECTION
 
Then there’s 2000 Mules movie.
APOLOGY FOR ‘2000 MULES (WSJ)
“The movie “2000 Mules” was supposed to be the definitive proof that Democrats stole the 2020 election from President Trump. Last week [June 2024] it was quietly retracted. Salem Media Group, which co-produced this Trumpian fantasy mockumentary, ceased distribution of the film and issued an apology to Mark Andrews, one of the Georgia voters depicted as an illegal ballot “mule.”... Salem aims to shift blame to the film’s purported vote-fraud-fighting heroes. “We relied on representations made to us by Dinesh D’Souza and True the Vote, Inc. (‘TTV’) that the individuals depicted in the videos provided to us by TTV, including Mr. Andrews, illegally deposited ballots,” the company said. “We have learned that the Georgia Bureau of Investigation has cleared Mr. Andrews of illegal voting activity in connection with the event depicted.” – WSJ Editorial staff at...
My cmt: The movie is a complete fake. Here are a couple of my previous comments on the subject...
 
“A conservative group has told a Georgia judge that it doesn't have evidence to support its claims of illegal ballot stuffing during the 2020 general election and a runoff two months later. Texas-based True the Vote filed complaints with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in 2021, including one in which it said it had obtained “a detailed account of coordinated efforts to collect and deposit ballots in drop boxes across metro Atlanta” during the November 2020 election and a January 2021 runoff.” Story at...
My cmt: The movie, “2000 Mules” is a complete fake.  The GBI (Georgia Bureau of Investigation) stated that the claims of ballot stuffing by True the Vote and the 2000 Mules movie were not supported by the evidence provided in the movie. The crazy thing is that during the 2020 election, Georgia matched absentee ballot signatures to registrations and signatures on file.  Even if there had been ballot stuffing, the fake ballots would have been thrown out due to lack of registration and/or non-matching signatures.
 
“About one-third of U.S. adults say they believe President Biden was not legitimately elected president of the United States in 2020, according a poll released this week [Jan 2024].” - The Hill at...
My cmt: 20% of Americans are complete idiots for believing there is a Government/Taylor Swift conspiracy to elect Joe Biden. Now 30% believe the Trump stolen election absurdity. Let’s hope the 20% crazies fall within the 30% nut-jobs otherwise we’d have to add them together.  50% of Americans can’t be idiots, can they?
 
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin
 
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January 2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings. On net, modest increases in current personal finances and buying conditions for durables were offset by a small decline in long-run business conditions. While sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly increases have been small—well under the margin of error—and the overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical perspective.” Report at…
 
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 2% to 6932.
-VIX fell about 18% to 17.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.206% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -7 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The S&P 500 bounced above its 50-dMA and the lower trend line of the bearish wedge - good news. No trend-change yet.
 
The Hindenburg Omen was canceled today because the McClellan Oscillator turned positive.
 
The S&P 500 closed at its 100-dMA yesterday. As noted yesterday, recent declines have stopped at the 100-dMA – boy, did it ever.  
 
Breadth improved.
 
Friday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.
 
Looks like the weakness ended as dip-buyers stampeded into the market. Let’s see what the indicators show next week.
 
I added to my Nvidia position today. The high capital expenditures by tech companies suggests to ne that the AI trade is far from over. Nvidia looks like a value trade to me so I am ignoring the weak momentum it is currently exhibiting.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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