Monday, March 2, 2026

ISM Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
TEHRAN—In a surprise attack that has rattled the White House, on Saturday morning the Iranian Air Force dropped unredacted copies of the Epstein files on the U.S. Standing in front of a banner reading, “OMISSION UNACCOMPLISHED,” Iran’s spokesman said that its aircraft dropped the files over most major media outlets in the U.S. but skipped CBS and CNN. “Like Bari Weiss is going to run with this story?” he scoffed. “Good one.”
The spokesman added that Iran had not bothered to drop the files over the U.S. Capitol, stating, “We have seen no evidence that Congress still exists.” – Andy Borowitz.
 
U.S. SAW CHANCE TO KILL TOP OFFICIALS (WSJ)
“Israeli and U.S. military intelligence had long watched and waited for a rare opportunity: senior political and military leaders in Iran holding a meeting—where they could all be killed at once. The day finally came Saturday… 
…The moment was so unique that U.S. and Israeli warplanes struck in full daylight…
…Israel also said it had killed a number of other top political and military officials including Ali Shamkhani, a top security adviser to Khamenei; Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh.” Story at…
 
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the second straight month but only the third time in 40 months, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.” Report at…
 
-Monday the S&P 500 was little changed at 6882.
-VIX rose about 8% to 21.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.048% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was flat – a NEUTRAL indication.
 
Even the air strikes on Iran made very little impact on the markets. In the past, these actions have produced short-term declines. That was certainly true during the first Gulf War. Markets dropped at first and later recovered. Today, markets were down at the open. Apparently, investors saw the morning weakness and decided to buy the dip. As the daily chart shows, the S&P 500 recovered all of its opening losses.
 
A lot of questions remain about oil prices and transportation routes. Investors may reconsider buying. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more weakness. Indicators have been going nowhere as has the S&P 500 and Futures are down as I write this.
 
Unless indicators show a lot more negativity, I will not be selling stocks. I cut leveraged funds at a small profit before all this started and at the same time, I trimmed technology issues.
 
Levels of support remain. On the S&P 500, they are: 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.7% above the 100-dMA and 4.8% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain a nervous neutral on the markets. I am HOLD on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Saturday, February 28, 2026

PPI … Chicago PMI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
PPI (CNBC)
“The core producer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8%, more than the 0.6% gain in December and well ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.3%.” Story at…
 
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) climbed to its highest level in nearly four years in February, rising 3.7 points to 57.7. This reading came in above the projected 52.0 and marks the second straight month regional business activity has expanded.” Analysis at…
 
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 6879.
-VIX rose about 7% to 19.86.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.949% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +4 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
The S&P 500 is 1.4% below its all-time high back in mid-January. Small corrections (<10%) on average last about a month top to bottom; Corrections >10% last about 2-1/2 months with major bear markets lasting 200+ days. We don’t seem to be in a correction, but markets haven’t been consistent so far this year. Markets do have sideways corrections where they are directionless for several months.  That is a more positive view than the possibility that this weakness might be a prelude to a big correction.
 
My indicators mostly look at the here and now. For now, I don’t see a major correction. Breadth has been generally ok since the beginning of the year, but all is not well with markets. The S&P 500 has now fallen slightly below its 50-dMA and the Bearish Ascending Wedge remains so there is still a concern that the markets could slip into correction.
 
If they do, levels of support on the S&P 500 are 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.7% above the 100-dMA and 4.9% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain a nervous neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Thursday, February 26, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

 

Political Cartoons From Dick Wright

Dick Wright has been an award-winning editorial cartoonist for decades, drawing for the San Diego Union, the Providence Journal, Scripps-Howard Newspapers and the Columbus Dispatch.
 
“It didn’t take Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) long to start turning Virginia into California. And by “California,” I don’t mean the fantastic weather. No, Spanberger is turning Virginia into the “Golden State” by implementing policies that will likely be a buzz killer for businesses. At least one major player has announced that it is relocating. But it’s a big one: Boeing.
The problem is that Spanberger ran as a female version of John Fetterman, the centrist senator to the north in Pennsylvania. But since she was sworn in on Jan. 17, she has been governing as Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA).” Story at…
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 6909.
-VIX rose about 4% to 18.63.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.004% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +2 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
CNBC reported, “Nvidia shares dropped 5% on Thursday, as investor concerns around its leadership in the artificial intelligence boom dampened enthusiasm over its earnings beat. The company reported stellar quarterly results, but the numbers were not enough to assuage Wall Street amid an already fragile time for stocks.” 
 
Nvidia nearly doubled its revenue! It was up more than 5% in after-hours trading yesterday, but then faded and continued the fade today. It finished down more than 5%. This suggests that we may finally get the correction that markets have been flirting with. Does it start Friday? Not if the pattern of up and down price we’ve seen recently continues. Further, indicators are not overly negative, although today there was a new bear sign.
 
Today there was another Distribution Day. That’s 6 Distribution days in the last 5 weeks. Here’s what Investor’s Business Daily says about that:
“A distribution day in the stock market occurs when a major index (like the S&P 500 or Nasdaq) closes down by 0.2% or more on higher volume than the previous session. It signifies heavy selling by institutional investors, with 4–6 such days over a 4 to 5-week period often signaling a potential market top or reversal.”
 
My indicator uses 6 or more distribution days in 5-weeks as a bearish indicator. As noted before, markets are not out of the woods yet.
 
The S&P 500 is 1% below its all-time high. It has now bounced slightly above its 50-dMA. That’s a positive sign, but the Bearish Ascending Wedge remains so there is still a concern that the markets could slip into correction.
 
If they do, levels of support are 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 1.2% above the 100-dMA and 5.4% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain a nervous neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)


My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
Political Cartoons From Dick Wright
Dick Wright has been an award-winning editorial cartoonist for decades, drawing for the San Diego Union, the Providence Journal, Scripps-Howard Newspapers and the Columbus Dispatch.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
AMERICAS BILLS WILL COME DUE (WSJ)
“The first law of holes: When you’re in one, stop digging. The Trump administration didn’t get this memo. Despite America’s large and deepening budget deficit, President Trump has endorsed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s request for a $500 billion increase in annual appropriations for the 2027 military budget. Administration officials are reportedly at odds about how to spend this money… the path to fiscal responsibility must begin now, in the 2027 budget… They shouldn’t enact spending for defense—or any other item—that raises the budget deficit above the baseline. Nor should they enact new tax cuts that raise the deficit. This is what it means to stop digging.” William A Galston, WSJ Opinion writer, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. Opinion at,,,
 
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6946.
-VIX declined about 8% to 17.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.058% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -8 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Indicators have been flopping back and forth recently so they aren’t helping too much.
 
The S&P 500 is only 0.5% below its all-time high. It has now bounced above its 50-dMA. That’s a positive sign, but the Bearish Ascending Wedge remains so there is still a concern that the markets could slip into correction.
 
If they do, levels of support are 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 1.7% above the 100-dMA and 6.1% above the 200-dMA.
 
For now, all we can do is watch the chart; markets are not out of the woods yet.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am remaining a nervous neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
Posted by at

Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Consumer Confidence … Richmond Fed … Dallas Fed … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
THE END OF START-STOP (BamaCooley)
“You know the feeling. Foot on the brake, engine dies, the whole car shudders like it forgot how to be a car. Then the light turns green, and there's that half-second lurch where nothing happens, and the guy behind you lays on his horn … On February 12, 2026, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin walked into the White House Roosevelt Room and called it what millions already had. Zeldin didn't mince words: "Not only do many people find start-stop annoying, but it kills the battery of your car without any significant benefit to the environment. The Trump EPA is proudly fixing this stupid feature at Trump Speed." Story at…
 
RICHMOND FED (Advisor Perspectives)
“Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed somewhat in February according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index dropped 4 points to -10, remaining in negative territory for a twelfth straight month.” Commentary at…
 
DALLAS FED (Dallas Fed)
“Texas service sector activity grew slightly in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, ticked down four points but remained in positive territory at 4.1.” Report at…
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (PR Newswire)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased by 2.2 points in February to 91.2 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January…’Confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers' pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,’ said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. ‘Four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).’" Press release at…
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6890.
-VIX declined about 7% to 19.55.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.037% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign. (Yesterday’s spread was -8. The Hindenburg Omen remains for 30-days except when the McClellan Oscillator is positive.)
 
I was surprised to see that the indicators hadn’t changed much today even though the S&P 500 closed well in the green. As it is, Indicators remain bearish. I should be bearish, but there doesn’t seem to be much fear so I am nervously neutral.
 
The S&P 500 is only 1.3% below its all-time high. It also remains slightly below its 50-dMA.
 
Levels of support are 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.9% above the 100-dMA and 5.3% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am remaining a nervous neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
Posted by at

Monday, February 23, 2026

Factory Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
THE TRUTH ABOUT TARIFFS (WSJ)
“The White House this week opened a new front in its war on the Federal Reserve: a fight about Fed research on the consequences of President Trump’s tariffs. If the tariffs are such an unambiguous economic and political winner, why is the Administration so defensive about them?
The flap concerns the analysis we told you about last week by four economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. They found that American households and businesses are bearing nearly 90% of the cost of the Trump tariffs, contrary to Mr. Trump’s claim that foreigners will pay…
… If your tariff policy is so unpopular that you have to bully the central bank into not talking about it, maybe it’s time for a new policy.” – Opinion at…
 
HIGH BEEF PRICES SET TO LAST (WSJ)
“The Trump administration views easing beef prices as a top priority, enlisting top advisers to find solutions in policy meetings. This month, President Trump signed an executive order to quadruple beef imports from Argentina, though the volume is small, and to drop some tariffs on imports of Brazilian beef.” Story at…
My cmt: Trump claims tariffs don’t raise prices, but at the same time his administration is lowering tariffs on beef to reduce beef prices. Can’t have it both ways Donald. The liar-in-Chief strikes again.
 
FACTORY ORDERS (RTTNews)
“New orders for U.S. manufactured goods pulled back in line with expectations in the month of December, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Monday…factory orders slid by 0.7 percent in December after surging by 2.7 percent in November.” Story at…
 
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 1% to 6838.
-VIX rose about 10% to 21.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.046% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Optimism about improved indicators vanished today.
 
Some new bear indicators:
-A return of the Fosback high-low logic index bearish signal.
-A new Bearish outside reversal.
-Bearish McClellan Oscillator.
-An S&P 500 drop below its 50-dMA
 
There was a new Hindenburg Omen today around mid-day. At closing, conditions improved enough to avoid the Omen, but the Fosback high-low logic index uses a similar methodology and it gave a bearish signal. The concern is that both new-highs and new-lows are elevated. That is showing an unhealthy market.
 
On Friday, PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was higher and GDP was an anemic 1.4%, nearly half the expected value. I wrote Friday that when the market goes up on bad news it’s a good sign, but I was not convinced. Today’s decline wasn’t much of a surprise. Recently, these small pullbacks have ended around the 100-dMA. We’re close enough that this decline could end now. I say, “Could.” Again, I am not convinced. The recent low was around 6800. I wouldn't be surprised to see markets get there again.
 
Levels of support are 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.2% above the 100-dMA and 4.6% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am remaining a nervous neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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