“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
“…as I’ve long argued, our [journalism] industry’s
recovery of self-respect must begin with divorcing ourselves from a certain
digital-age audience—the audience that doesn’t care whether a claim is true or
false, only whether it meets an emotional need…In the age of online propaganda
and artificial intelligence, the country urgently needs a place it can turn to
for truth. This is a mission that a redeemed mainstream news business can give
itself: Make America strong-minded again.” - Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., Opinion
Columnist, Business World, The Wall Street Journal. From…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/scott-pelley-delivers-for-the-ellisons-trump-and-cbs-b7d5c80c
NEW HOME SALES (Reuters)
“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly fell
in May, weighed down by higher mortgage rates and prices, dampening hopes for a
housing recovery this year after prolonged weakness…New home sales dropped 7.3%
to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 580,000 units last month, the
lowest level since January…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-new-home-sales-unexpectedly-fall-may-2026-06-24/
S&P GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI (Reuters)
“U.S. manufacturing activity rose again in June as
companies preemptively placed new orders in anticipation of shortages and
higher prices, but factory employment hit a six-year low, blamed on rising
operating costs related to the Middle East conflict.
S&P Global said its flash manufacturing PMI increased
to 55.7 this month, the highest reading since May 2022…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-manufacturing-rises-front-loading-orders-factory-employment-tumbles-six-year-2026-06-23/
S&P GLOBAL SERVICES PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
from S&P Global inched down 0.3 points to 50.7, indicating slower expansion
in the services sector. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 50.9
and was among the weakest months of expansion in the past 2.5 years.”
Commentary at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/06/03/sp-global-services-pmi-may-2026
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 7358.
-VIX declined about 4% to 18.63. (The Options Boys don’t
seem too worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.398%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
Today was somewhat odd. The S&P 50 was down slightly,
but advancing issues outpaced decliners; new-highs were ahead of new-lows. The
negative was on the volume side: declining-volume outpaced advancing-volume. We’re
left with indicators that improved slightly.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from -6 to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations is
essentially flat, also a NEUTRAL sign that is also important.
Note that today’s indicators have improved significantly
compared to the 10 June low, so perhaps that divergence will portend good news
for the markets.
The S&P 500 is only 0.1% above the 50-dMA. As previously
noted, since the 50-dMA has not been significantly broken, we can’t be too
concerned about the recent weakness. So far, it looks perfectly normal and not
a sign that more trouble is certain. I’ll get more concerned if the 50-day does
not hold.
Breadth indicators are mostly ok, so for now, we’ll have
to wait for more information. An important piece of information would be if the
Index drops below its 50-day.
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
CONGRESS GETS A SAY ON IRAN DEAL (WSJ- excerpt)
“All presidents long for the big foreign-policy win. The
cameras, the signing ceremony and, not least, the knowledge that they have
shaped history. After a war, when markets are looking for calm and the public
for reassurance, a president might be tempted to move things along without
consulting Congress.
In the case of President Trump’s prospective deal
with Iran,
that would be unlawful and unconstitutional. It would violate the Iran Nuclear
Agreement Review Act of 2015 (Inara), which was enacted while
the Obama administration was negotiating its Iran nuclear
deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Inara requires congressional
review for any agreement related to Iran’s nuclear program before sanctions
relief can move forward. More generally, the president can’t use diplomacy to
nullify sanctions Congress enacted or disregard the limits Congress placed on
his power to waive them.” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/not-so-fastcongress-gets-a-say-on-the-iran-deal-05cb1696
My cmt: Trump has never been one to follow the Constitution.
Unfortunately, this is not new. In addition to the law cited above, the Senate’s
“advice and consent” role on Treaties has been bypassed regularly, but
especially by Trump and Obama.
“A treaty is a formal, legally binding written agreement
between sovereign states or international organizations. It functions like a
contract under international law, used to establish alliances, regulate
commerce, resolve disputes, or protect human rights.”
So, to avoid the Senate, our leaders call them “agreements”,
“accords” (think climate accords) or now “MOUs” - anything but what they are –
treaties.
MAJOR STOCK MARKET SHOCK POSSIBLE (Moneywise)
“Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan warned that Wall
Street may be underestimating the risk of a major "out of the box"
economic shock, suggesting a 30% to 35% probability of a significant disruption
despite current market highs. "Everything we see in front of us is
actually quite strong," Rowan said. But there is "a much greater
chance, in our opinion, of out-of-sideline results."… In response, the
firm is positioning defensively by upgrading credit quality and building cash
reserves…"Combine bonds, gold, infrastructure, real estate and hedge
strategies so at least one protector is working in every market scenario."
That way, when there's volatility somewhere in the
market, you might not feel the contagions quite as badly in your portfolio.”
Story at…
Apollo
CEO Marc Rowan says there’s now a 35% chance of a major market shock — and his
firm is piling up $40B cash. How investors can prepare
RICHMOND FED (City Biz)
“The Federal
Reserve Bank of Richmond reported Tuesday that its
manufacturing index declined to 4 in June, falling short of economists’
expectations of 8 and down from 13 in May…All three major components of the
survey — shipments, new orders and employment — moved lower during the month,
signaling softer manufacturing conditions across the Fifth Federal Reserve
District.” Story at…
https://www.citybiz.co/article/864351/richmond-fed-manufacturing-index-falls-more-than-expected-in-june/
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 1.4% to 7365.
-VIX rose about 10% to 19.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to
4.499% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from -1 to -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a slightly BEARISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed lower,
a BEARISH sign that is also important.
The S&P 500 fell to 0.6% above the 50-dMA and appears
to be in the vicinity of its lower trendline. In the chart above it looks like the
Index is on its lower trendline or slightly lower. It is important to note that
trendlines are subjective and depend on the scales chosen when drawing the
chart. For that reason, the 50-dMA is more reliable than a trendline. Since the
50-dMA has not been significantly broken, we can’t be too concerned about the
recent weakness. So far, it looks perfectly normal and not a sign that more
trouble is certain.
Breadth indicators are mostly ok, so for now, we’ll have
to wait for more information. An important piece of information would be if the
Index drops below its 50-day.
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
IRAN AND TRUMP BLAME ISRAEL FIRST (WSJ-excerpt)
“Tehran claims the U.S. is obliged to stop Israel from
bombing Hezbollah, even as Hezbollah continues to kill Israeli soldiers and
fire rockets and drones at civilians in northern Israel. Fighting calmed down
on Sunday as Israel asked its military to reduce combat operations. Iran
insists the MOU requires that Mr. Trump treat Israel like an American proxy,
though Israel is a sovereign democracy with a duty to its citizens to stop
foreign bombardment.
Perhaps Iran got this idea from listening to Mr. Trump
and his Vice President. “Israel is fighting Hezbollah too long,” Mr. Trump said
last week, while declaring that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu “has no f— judgment” in how he responds to Hezbollah’s attacks.
JD Vance was even more threatening. “The Israelis—just
like everybody else—have to respect this peace process that is fundamentally
good for them and good for the entire region,” he said on Thursday…
…Within hours of Mr. Vance’s blunt message to Israel on
Thursday, Hezbollah killed four Israeli troops. This guaranteed a retaliation,
which Tehran then took as a pretext to postpone talks and threaten the Strait…
…Mr. Trump came into office with a chance to restore
American deterrence after the feckless Biden years. But he increasingly finds
himself attacking allies while apologizing for adversaries.” – Editorial Board,
WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-and-trump-blame-israel-first-a122a0d7
BUFFETT INDICATOR WARNS OF POSSIBLE TROUBLE (Motley Fool)
“During the lead-up to the bursting of the dot-com bubble
in the early 2000s, Buffett predicted that stocks were overvalued and would
soon plunge into a bear market.
Now nicknamed the Buffett indicator, the metric behind
his prediction measures the ratio between the total value of U.S. stocks and
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP)… "If the percentage relationship falls
to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for
you," Buffett explained in a 2001 interview with Fortune magazine.
"If the ratio approaches 200% -- as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 --
you are playing with fire." As of this writing, it sits at around 233%.”
Commentary at…
Warren
Buffett's favorite stock market indicator just hit a dangerous record. Here's
what history says happens next.
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7473.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.40.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to
4.503% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +1 to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), still a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed
higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
The S&P 500 is 2% above the 50-dMA and appears to be
in the vicinity of, though higher than its lower trendline.
Good to see the 10-day spread improve. Now let’s see if
we can see consecutive days with the spread rising. That would probably lead me
to take a more positive view of the markets.
BOTTOM LINE
I have to be neutral now, but I
am still expecting indicators to turn bullish soon.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
“Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger has officially
signed a bill that would award the state's 13 electoral votes to whoever wins
the national popular vote — regardless of how Virginians actually vote.
The legislation, part of the National Popular Vote
Interstate Compact, passed mostly along party lines with Democrat votes. It
requires 270 electoral votes from participating states to take effect.
Once activated, your individual vote in Virginia (and
other compact states) would be overridden by the nationwide popular vote total.
This is a radical attempt to bypass the Electoral College
and diminish the power of individual states.” – David J Harris Jr., from a
Facebook post.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE BENEFITS (Heritage Foundation)
“The Electoral College prevents presidential candidates
from winning an election by focusing solely on high-population urban centers
and dense media markets, forcing them to seek the support of a larger
cross-section of the American electorate. This addresses the Founders’ fears of
a “tyranny of the majority,” which has the potential to marginalize sizeable
portions of the population, particularly in rural and more remote areas of the
country.
Large cities like New York City and Los Angeles should
not get to unilaterally dictate policies that affect more rural states, like
North Dakota and Indiana, which have very different needs. These states may be
smaller, but their values still matter—they should have a say in who becomes
President…While no system can completely eliminate the risk of individuals
trying to cheat the system, the Electoral College minimizes the incentives
for voter
fraud because the system isolates the impact of stolen votes. Under
the current system, stolen votes only affect the outcome of one state rather
than the national outcome. This is because fraudulent votes may win the state,
securing the electoral votes, but it would make no difference for the candidate
to win that state with 100 stolen votes or 100,000 since the candidate would
secure the same electoral votes regardless.5 Under a national
popular vote system, though, votes stolen in one state would have an impact
beyond that state’s border, since those illegitimate votes would be added to
the national vote total.” – Commentary from…
https://www.heritage.org/the-essential-electoral-college/the-benefits
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Fast Company)
“U.S. applications for unemployment
benefits in the week ending June 13 dropped by 4,000 to 226,000, the
Labor Department reported Thursday.” Story at…
https://www.fastcompany.com/91561858/u-s-jobless-claims-drop-226000-unemployment-rate-stays-historically-low-4-3
PHILLY FED INDEX (rttNews)
“The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current
general activity shot up to a positive 10.3 in June from a negative 0.4 in May,
with a positive reading indicating growth.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3661267/philly-fed-index-jumps-back-into-positive-territory-in-june.aspx
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Conference Board)
"The Leading Index for the US increased slightly in
May, fueled entirely by positive contributions from financial components,
especially stock prices and the interest rate spread," said Justyna
Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The
Conference Board. "On the non-financial side of the LEI, only ISM®
New Orders Index showed some strength, with consumer expectations remaining a
major drag. Despite two consecutive monthly increases, the LEI's six- and
twelve-month growth rates were still negative, suggesting slower economic
expansion ahead…The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.8% y/y GDP
growth in 2026, down from 2.1% in 2025." Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-rose-for-the-second-consecutive-month-in-may-302804403.html
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 7501.
-VIX declined about 11% to 16.40.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.457%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from -2 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), still a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
Neutral can be good.
BOTTOM LINE
I have to be neutral now, but I
am still expecting indicators to turn bullish soon.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
VOTERS REJECT TRUMP FAKE ELECTOR (Raw Story)
“President Donald Trump's status as a kingmaker in
Republican primaries got a setback on Tuesday, as Georgia GOP voters rejected
his choice for the governor's race. Businessman Rick Jackson, defeated Lt. Gov.
Burt Jones, who had Trump's endorsement…Jones is well known for being one of
the "fake electors" in the 2020 scheme to overturn former President
Joe Biden's electoral win.” Story at…
Trump
rebuked in Georgia as voters reject his fake elector for governor
My cmt: Coincidentally, I just mentioned Trump’s
“Fake-Elector” scheme for the 2020 election this past Friday.
FED RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“Kevin Warsh’s
first meeting as Federal
Reserve chairman concluded Wednesday with no change in interest
rates and a nod to possible hikes ahead. The meeting also saw the removal of
key language indicating a bias toward future cuts within a dramatically shorter
policy statement.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/fed-interest-rate-decision-june-2026.html
NO EASY MONEY FROM WARSH (CNBC)
“DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said new Federal
Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone than many investors
expected, underscoring his commitment to restoring price stability and
signaling less appetite for easy monetary policy.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/jeffrey-gundlach-says-feds-warsh-is-not-going-to-be-the-easy-money-chairman-many-hoped-for.html
HOUSING STARTS (Hardware Retailing)
“The May reading from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and
the U.S. Census
Bureau noted 1.18 million starts…single-family starts decreased 1.9% to an 882,000
seasonally adjusted annual rate and are down 6.7% compared to May 2025. The
multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased
40.2% to an annualized 295,000 pace and are down 14.2% compared to May 2025.”
Story at…
https://hardwareretailing.com/housing-starts-drop-in-may/
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 1.2% to 7420.
-VIX rose about 12% to 18.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.487%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
It's pretty clear that the issues in the market started
shortly after today’s Fed meeting concluded at 2pm. The Fed stance under the new
chairman Warsh may have surprised traders (and the Wall Street computers)
leading to a 100 pt. loss on the S&P 500 after the Fed announcement. If this
weakness does turn into something more concerning, there is strong support at
the 50-dMA. The Index is only 1.6% above the 50-dMA. I suspect the 50-day will
hold if the Index falls that far. I don’t think we have to worry about it yet,
but the Index is 7.6% above the 200-dMA
Futures are up as I write this and I suspect that today’s
action was a kneejerk reaction to the Fed news; I expect markets will move
higher Thursday. (Of course, I have been saying that for a few days.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +3 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
I’ve been saying this for a while: I’d like to see the
10-dMA of the Indicator Spread turn higher – that would be a good bullish sign,
but it is a slow signal. The improvement in daily numbers has been encouraging
even though the bounce has stalled.
Breadth still looks good. Over the last 10-days, more
issues have gone up on the NYSE than have gone down, but some breadth
indicators are warning: the McClellan Oscillator has turned bearish and that
reactivates the Hindenburg Omen.
BOTTOM LINE
I have to be neutral now, but I
am still expecting indicators to turn bullish soon.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
HOUSING STARTS (Hardware Retailing)
“The May reading from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and
the U.S. Census
Bureau noted 1.18 million starts…single-family starts decreased 1.9% to an 882,000
seasonally adjusted annual rate and are down 6.7% compared to May 2025. The
multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased
40.2% to an annualized 295,000 pace and are down 14.2% compared to May 2025.”
Story at…
https://hardwareretailing.com/housing-starts-drop-in-may/
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 7511.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.439%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +5 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
I’d like to see the 10-dMA of the Indicator Spread turn
higher – that would be a good bullish sign, but it is a slow signal. The
improvement in daily numbers has been encouraging even though the bounce stalled
today.
After the big move higher Monday, a down-day Tuesday is
not a surprise.
Breadth still looks good. Over the last 10-days, more
issues have gone up on the NYSE than have gone down.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish and expecting
indicators to turn bullish soon.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
