… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JOLTS – JOB OPENINGS
Not available due to Government shutdown.
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 6918.
-VIX rose about 10% to 18.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.266% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT

The S&P 500 dropped below its 50-dMA around 2 pm today and bounced up from there. The 50-dMA is also the lower trend line in the bearish ascending wedge. The trend line held and that’s a good sign. While the day was weak, the finish was strong, suggesting we may expect a bullish follow-thru Wednesday.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +8 to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BULLISH sign.
 
Today, Tuesday, was a Bearish Outside Reversal day.
The Bearish Outside Reversal signal remains in place until the S&P 500 closes above the high on the Reversal Day. 
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.
 
We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart.  I’ve shown it in red. The lower trend line held again today. We need to see the Index break above the upper lines soon. If not I’ll reduce stock holdings again. If it breaks the lower trend line, that would also be a signal to cut back.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

ISM Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
3^RD HISTORIC TRUMP STOCK MARKET CRASH IMMINENT? (Motley Fool)
“One of the historical markers that doesn't bode particularly well for Wall Street is its expensive valuation, as measured by the S&P 500's Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio, which is also known as the cyclically adjusted P/E Ratio, or CAPE Ratio.
 

When back-tested to January 1871, this valuation tool, which is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings over the trailing decade, has averaged 17.33. As of the closing bell on Jan. 28, the CAPE Ratio clocked in above 41. This is the second-priciest stock market in history…Although it's impossible to predict how long valuations will remain extended, the Shiller P/E has an exceptional track record of foreshadowing significant declines. The CAPE Ratio has only exceeded 30 on six occasions in 155 years, with the previous five instances followed by drops in the Dow, S&P 500, and/or Nasdaq ranging from 20% to 89%.” Story at…
Is a 3rd historic stock market crash imminent under President Donald Trump? Here's what the data says.
 
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in 12 months, preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM^® Manufacturing PMI^® Report…"The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 52.6 percent in January, a 4.7-percentage point increase compared to the seasonally adjusted reading of 47.9 percent in December.” Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-6-january-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302675443.html
 
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6976.
-VIX declined about 6% to 16.36.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.281% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +1 to +8 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Breadth had been falling, but it improved today and over the last 2 weeks, more issues on the NYSE have gone up than have gone down.
 
We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart.  I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test. If it doesn’t happen before the S&P 500 reaches the termination of the wedge where the upper and lower trend lines meet a breakdown is likely. 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
 

PPI … Chicago PMI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
THANK HEAVEN FOR COAL POWER (WSJ – Excerpt)
“The weekend’s arctic blast [last weekend] has put much of the U.S. grid through a stress test and served as another alert about the growing risks to electric-power reliability. Americans can be grateful the Biden crowd didn’t succeed in forcing all coal plants to shut down…Early Sunday morning, coal accounted for some 40% of power in the Midwest’s MISO grid, 24% in the eastern U.S. PJM Interconnection and 18% in Texas, with most of the rest coming from natural gas and nuclear.
New York’s blockade on gas pipelines has constrained the fuel supply for power plants across New England. Power plants in the region had to resort to burning oil, which accounted for 40% of electricity at times of peak demand. Get this—the region generated more power from burning wood and trash than from wind power…The deep-freeze energy scare underscores why the Energy Department issued emergency orders in recent months to “stop the political closure of coal plants” in the Midwest. The grid needs all the coal power it can get when temperatures plunge or skyrocket. Environmental groups have challenged the department’s orders. Is the goal to reduce carbon emissions by making Americans freeze?” – Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/thank-heaven-for-coal-power-in-the-cold-dc3b9a33?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqebrQ2_HVHNcQqVweZyLA8spRlqpk3UnViEp-yHCw25Plf1QMj5axw5r59ELnE%3D&gaa_ts=697c18bf&gaa_sig=b3M0bUS78uyOI_Ied-DACWqF2DbBynUUmjTXIyDz-66W-NkEwqEGSNXY_P2SkKCQIg7kDFU3_xsrYNg4V_fW3Q%3D%3D
 
AMERICA DOESN’T DO FASCISM (WSJ)
“…This week the Atlantic published an essay headlined “Yes, It’s Fascism,” in which Brookings Institution scholar Jonathan Rauch draws up a series of categories— “demolition of norms,” “might is right,” “police-state tactics,” “blood-and-soil nationalism”— that in his view describe both Mr. Trump and “classical” fascism of the 1930s…
…I assume Mr. Walz knows the difference between the Gestapo and federal ICE agents, and between detention centers for illegal immigrants and Bergen-Belsen… But some not insubstantial number of these politicians’ listeners take their assertions both seriously and literally. That so many people in Minneapolis have endangered themselves by waving phones in the faces of armed federal officers and shouting obscenities as if they were psychotic is one of many unhappy consequences. American public figures have a duty to think better of their country than to believe it capable of putting a fascist in the White House. Some of them might ponder the possibility that he wouldn’t be there at all were it not for excesses they cheered at the time.” - Barton Swaim., Opinion Columnist, Unruly Republic, The Wall Street Journal. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/barton-swaim
My comment: Looking at it rationally produces another conclusion. During the campaign preceding the 2020 election, Trump said he would close the borders and evict all illegal immigrants. He was subsequently elected and is doing exactly what he said he would do. That is Democracy – not Fascism.
 
Further, if those who were being arrested went peaceably, and protestors were respectful, there would be no claims of fascism.
 
PPI (Reuters)
“The PPI for final demand jumped 0.5% last month, the biggest rise since ‌July, after an unrevised 0.2% gain in November… In ​the 12 months through December, the PPI increased 3.0%...” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-producer-prices-accelerate-december-services-2026-01-30/
 
CHICAGO PMI (Investing.com)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector in the Chicago region, has reported a significant expansion. The actual reading for the index stood at 54.0, indicating a robust growth in the sector.” Story at…
https://ca.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/chicago-pmi-signals-manufacturing-sector-expansion-surpasses-expectations-93CH-4429573
 
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 6939.
-VIX rose about 3% to 17.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.241% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +9 to +1 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Friday there was a Hindenburg Omen
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
 
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. So far, we’ve seen only one. Further, the Fosback High-Low Logic Index uses a similar method of analysis. It is closer to a Buy-signal than a sell.
 
Breadth is falling. That’s a concern. The first warning signal flashed today - over the last 2 weeks, more issues on the NYSE have gone down than have gone up.
 
The S&P 500 is likely to make another visit to the lower trendline. The 50-dMA is about 1% below today’s close at 6858. That is a likely stop for this weakness.
 
We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart.  I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test. Now the worry is the lower trendline – will it hold? I think so, but we’ll find out soon.
 
Breadth was good at the recent all-time-high. As a result, I don’t expect markets to retreat too far. If economic issues continue to decline, this opinion will have to change.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Jobless Claims … Productivity … Factory Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JOBLESS CLAMS (ABC News)
“Applications for jobless aid for the week ending Jan. 24 fell by 1,000 to 209,000 from the previous week’s number which was revised upward by 10,000…” Story at…
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-applications-jobless-benefits-proxy-layoffs-tick-209000-129667752
 
PRODUCTIVITY (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. worker productivity grew at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter…Nonfarm productivity, which ‌measures hourly output per worker, increased at an unrevised 4.9% annualized rate…” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-third-quarter-productivity-growth-135529345.html
 
FACTORY ORDERS (Yahoo Finance)
“Factory orders increased 2.7% after an upwardly revised 1.2% decline in October, the Commerce Department's ‌Census Bureau said on Thursday.” Story at… 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-orders-rebound-november-153446529.html
 
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6969.
-VIX rose about 16.88.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.233% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026. SOLD 1/28/2026 & 1/29/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +5 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.  (I revised yesterday’s spread down from 6 to 5 due to data that came in late.) I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Not much new to say:
-We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart.  I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.
 
-It is still up to price action.  Can the S&P 500 break above the bearish ascending wedge? If not I’ll be worried.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested, but I did sell all of my SSO. (I had forgotten some in another account.) This reduces stock portfolio to 70%, still a high number for a retiree. I didn’t like the indicators, although they improved in the last 15 minutes of trading.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
 

FED Rate Decision … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
CAN TRUMP DEFY PRESIDENTIAL STOCK SLUMP (WSJ)
“Patterns like the “Super Bowl Indicator” or “sell in May and go away” can be safely ignored, but there’s an actual reason for the sharp differences in stock-market returns during each of a president’s four years in office: They want to get re-elected and have economic levers to pull…

…The next-weakest year of a presidential cycle [after the second] has been the election year itself.
Those returns have been especially bad—surprise, surprise—when an incumbent was finishing his second and last term, like Trump will in 2028: negative 4.3%.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/can-trump-defy-a-presidential-stock-slump-aae5b710?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdG_-f0nS4DfI0GUY_Z5OiminPp7OMlpncJFpR-SzU5fGcOEgAfNRWL0nJHSZg%3D&gaa_ts=697ab984&gaa_sig=PJc6GtkepnS5_TDdKO3oL_ghusws7DvrMVoirj4J3m9x9JAbckwsbywwB2V3-4XayOnDxR2V8w3NIY825rYmJw%3D%3D
 
GOP’s $100 BILLION TAX BET: MORE REFUNDS WIN MORE VOTES (WSJ)
“The annual tax-filing season that opened Monday will produce a cash surge estimated at $100 billion beyond last year’s $329 billion total, and it is engineered to buoy Republicans’ sagging voter approval. Public confidence in Trump’s economic leadership has slumped, and better-than-expected growth hasn’t overcome Americans’ anxiety about the cost of living and a slowed job market.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/tax-season-refunds-republicans-1d4aac5d?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcPMkPeGkbVt6aKCQWstXKiHY629I-lYqdJpuBT10_yrTsL8A5AIQ0ggSAz_l4%3D&gaa_ts=697ab720&gaa_sig=e5awCuwvNwvyoSKde0fVo9tkf60TSMf9ohalE-ZctNDPSlA8FeckxU_iSEmLuHmlEnS0z17FbXKI-E1NmRB1UQ%3D%3D
My cmt: This comes with another $2 Trillion in debt. And Trump wonders why our interest rates are higher than other countries around the world.
 
FOMC RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“Meeting market expectations, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep its key interest rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%... In voting to hold the line, the committee raised its assessment of economic growth. It also eased its concerns about the labor market as compared with inflation.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/fed-rate-decision-january-2026.html
 
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was little changed at 6978.
-VIX was unchanged at 16.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.247% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026. SOLD 1/28/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +9 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart.  I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.
 
The S&P 500 made it up to its upper trendline of the bearish ascending wedge Wednesday, but it quickly retreated. Since I am overinvested, I thought it prudent to reduce risk by selling my leveraged SSO position.
 
It is still up to price action.  Can the S&P 500 break above the bearish ascending wedge? If not I’ll be worried.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested, but I did sell SSO. I may sell a bit more.  I am still overinvested given market conditions.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

SOLD Leveraged Position

 I sold SSO as a risk management action.  I am overinvested and I want to see if the S&P 500 can break out of its bearish ascending wedge pattern.

Richmond Fed … Dallas Fed … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“The Trump administration’s assault on Minnesota long ago stopped being a matter of immigration enforcement. It is a campaign of organized brutality against the people of our state. It isn’t just. It isn’t legal. And, critically, it isn’t making anyone any safer.” – Tim Waltz, Governor, Minnesota.
My cmt: There would have been a lot less trouble in Minnesota if the state had enforced laws against harassing Federal ICE members doing their jobs.  
 
“What is Reagan not remembered for? Deportations. He put his effort into legalizing people already here—nearly three million, the largest such legalization in U.S. history. He made a point of promoting and signing a law with increased enforcement powers but barely used them. He deported in eight years fewer people than President Obama did in six months. Reagan understood the purpose of prosecutorial discretion. America had failed so long and so consistently to enforce its own immigration laws or make them sensible. It owed better to those now here than to treat every undocumented grandmother and restaurant worker as the equivalent of a Tren de Aragua gangster.´- Holman W. Jenkins, Opinion Columnist, Business World, The Wall Street Journal. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-regression-to-the-mean-011c8056?mod=opinion_lead_pos8
 
RICHMOND FED INDEX (Richmond FED)
“Fifth District manufacturing activity was mostly unchanged in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index inched up to −6 in January from −7 in December.” Report at…
https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/business_surveys/manufacturing
 
DALLAS FED SERVICES (Dallas Fed)
"Texas factory activity expanded solidly in January after contracting in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, jumped to 11.2 from -3.0, a reading suggestive of an above-average pace of output expansion.” Report at…
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2026/2601
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6979.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.229% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart.  I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.
 
The S&P 500 has been up 5-days in a row. That’s a high number, but there have only been 12 up-days in the last month. That’s not enough to give a sell-signal. It looks like the markets can continue higher although the Index is due for a down-day.
 
It is up to price action now.  Can the S&P 500 break above the bearish ascending wedge? If not I’ll be worried. As I write this, futures are showing a bullish day is likely tomorrow. Further, the futures market is higher than that upper wedge line – a bullish sign.
 
The Fed meeting wraps up Wednesday, 28 January. According to CME Group’s Fed Watch, there is a 96% chance that rates will remain unchanged. But, there can still be some market angst around the press conference after the meeting.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested. I haven’t sold anything yet.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 80% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.