Navigate the Stock Market

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

FED Results … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

DEMOCRATS DISMISS CONSTITUTIONAL TRADITIONS AS NOSTALGIA (The The Hill/Jonathan Turley blog)
“After Yuri Bezmenov, a KGB agent working in the media, defected in 1970, he revealed the four stages by which the Soviets hoped to bring about revolutionary change in the U.S. It began with undermining our institutions and values, with the help of journalists and academics…
…In a New York Times op-ed — “The Constitution Is Broken and Should Not Be Reclaimed” — law professors Ryan Doerfler of Harvard and Samuel Moyn of Yale called for the nation to “reclaim America from constitutionalism.”
In yet another New York Times editorial, Jennifer Szalai denounced “Constitution worship” and claimed that “Americans have long assumed that the Constitution could save us. A growing chorus now wonders whether we need to be saved from it.”
Berkeley Dean Erwin Chemerinsky insists that it is time to trash the Constitution in favor of “radical changes.”
These voices are seeking to remove all of the moderating elements of our system —the safety features that have produced the world’s most successful and stable republic. They are the very constitutional elements protecting us from the tyranny of the majority, protecting us from ourselves.
Without those protections, we will unleash the self-destructive forces that have been tearing apart other democratic systems since Athens…history has shown that such radical proposals ultimately produce not democracy, but what the Framers called mobocracy. If we let that happen, many Americans will indeed look back at the last 250 years with a tragic sense of nostalgia.” - Jonathan Turley, law professor and the New York Times bestselling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.“ Commentary at…
https://jonathanturley.org/2026/07/20/democrats-dismiss-our-constitutional-traditions-as-nostalgia/#more-247218

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

FOMC MEETING (CNBC)
“The Federal Reserve released its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, opting to keep rates at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Though markets largely expected the Federal Open Market Committee to stay on hold, recent talk from several officials indicate there’s a sizable constituency to at least consider a hike.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7429.
-VIX declined about 2% to 18.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.606% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

I asked Google AI why the stock market dropped today at 3 pm. Here’s the answer via Yahoo Finance:
“The stock market extended its losses into the late afternoon on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, a "hawkish hold" that featured three dissenting votes favoring a rate hike, alongside ongoing remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Selling pressure was also amplified by surging oil prices following renewed Middle East tensions and a deepening sell-off in AI chip stocks.”

There was only about a 33% chance of a rate hike today so the Fed decision was in line with expectations. It doesn’t seem likely that the FED was the primary driver of today’s declines. The issue may have been the “surprise” that 3 voting members voted to raise interest rate. That’s a surprise?

We did see that XLE, the Energy Select Sector ETF, was a big winner today, up nearly 2%. In the Dow 30, CXV (Chevron) was up over 2%. It would appear that oil prices (up 7%) were the bigger factor.

One question we always ask, “Is the bull market over?” Sir John Templeton, one of the world’s most successful mutual-fund managers, gives us a clue. He famously said, “Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”
I don’t think the current market action is demonstrating euphoria. Breadth was also reasonably good at the all-time high in June so I think higher highs are ahead. However, it is hard to tell if the current market weakness is done, but there were some bullish signs.

-Bollinger Bands were oversold today and RSI was within a whisker of oversold. These signals suggest a bottom was formed today.
-Wednesday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost always occur on/or near Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms. Today could be a bottom, especially since Bollinger Bands and RSI were oversold.

The S&P 500 came within about 1/2% of the 10 June prior low of 7267. In that regard, Wednesday might be considered a test of that low. If it was, the Index failed the test - volume was higher and internals deteriorated. This suggests that the Index did not make a bottom.

We’re left with mixed signals; however, I think it does suggest the market is trying to make a bottom and it would not be a surprise to see the S&P 500 re-test the 7267 area.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish, but more hopeful now that a bottom is closer than many suspect.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Consumer Confidence … Richmond FED Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

WHAT THE FOUNDERS DIDN’T TRUST (WSJ – Excerpt)
“Ponder a wonderful passage in Paul Johnson’s “A History of the American People” (1997). Noting the “dismal succession of nonentities” to take the job of British prime minister from 1763 to 1782, Johnson observes that “this might not have mattered quite so much if the men they faced across the Atlantic had been of ordinary stature, of average competence and character.”
As it was, “the generation that emerged to lead the colonies into independence was one of the most remarkable group of men in history—sensible, broad-minded, courageous, usually well educated, gifted in a variety of ways, mature, and long-sighted, sometimes lit by flashes of genius.” Johnson calls the American Founders “the Enlightenment made flesh, but an Enlightenment shorn of its vitiating French intellectual weaknesses of dogmatism, anticlericalism, moral chaos, and an excessive trust in logic.” …
…When the authors of the Federalist Papers spoke of the “passions of men,” or of men consistently failing to behave like angels, they acknowledged themselves, too, as passion-prone and defective. The old understanding of man as inherently flawed had a humbling and leveling effect, just as the rejection of it has encouraged political actors across the West to treat their opponents as subhuman spreaders of evil. To recover a saner, less embittered politics may be as simple, and as difficult, as recovering the Founding Fathers’ anthropology.” – Barton Swain, Opinion Columnist, Unruly Republic, The Wall Street Journal. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/what-the-founders-didnt-trust-787a9419?mod=author_content_page_1_pos_5

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board...” Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and, to a lesser extent, perceptions of the current labor market both softened. Looking ahead, consumers anticipate little improvement in business conditions over the next six months, but expectations for the labor market were slightly less negative. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.”

Report at…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/

RICHMOND FED SERVICES (Richmond Fed)
“Fifth District manufacturing activity was mostly flat in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index was nearly unchanged in July…” Report at…
https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/business_surveys/manufacturing

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7429.
-VIX declined about 2% to 18.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.606% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -9 to +1 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations improved, but continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Breadth improved today. For now, when we look at the last two weeks, more issues have gone up than have gone down. That’s always a good sign. The 10-dMA of breadth is one of the first warning signs of trouble.

The S&P 500 improved, but is 0.4% below its 50-dMA. That’s better, but still a worry.

We noted yesterday that perhaps Monday’s Bullish Outside reversal would lead to a “Turning Tuesday.” As Jeffrey Saut once wrote regarding a past downturn: “… once the markets get into one of these weekly downside skeins, they rarely bottom on a Friday. Nope, they typically give participants over the weekend to brood about their losses and then they show up the next Monday in “sell mode” leading to Turning Tuesday.”

We got a turn today. Now we need to see if it is a durable turn and not just a one-day move.

I checked on our old buddy Micron Technology as a proxy for the chip stocks. It was down about 9% today. Its trailing PE has fallen to 18.5 making Micron an odd value stock. It is still about 60% above its 200-dMA which may be contributing to some of the profit taking in this stock. Another is that it quadrupled in price this year. The most concerning issue may be the fear that the AI trade won’t continue. I don’t know why it continues to decline, so I won’t guess. The chip decline still looks overdone to me, but I have been wrong.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish and will remain so until the S&P 500 climbs above its 50-day. Indicators did improve, but a neutral indication is not bullish enough for me. Both the chart and indicators remain concerning.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, July 27, 2026

Durable Goods … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

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More off-topic rambling…

DONORS MAKE DEMOCRATS CRAZY (WSJ – Excerpt)
“Nothing Left: Confessions of a Democratic Operative,” published next week…Ms. Barker’s memoir seeks to explain how and why a large segment of the Democratic Party, emotionally undone by the improbable two-time triumph of a helter-skelter populist celebrity, sought solace in socialism and various racialist and radical ideologies…
…The value in Ms. Barker’s memoir—other than the laughs—lies in its depiction of her party’s biggest and least acknowledged problem: its guilt-ridden donors and the web of cash-flush activist groups, anticapitalist nonprofits and issue-oriented super PACs they sustain. Her book abounds with busybody advocacy groups, donor advisory networks and consultancies run by know-nothing 20-somethings.
One donor Ms. Barker solicits [has a phone voicemail that] announces: “If you are not a woman of color, please do not bother leaving a voicemail. I won’t donate to you.” Still another, an heiress to an oil fortune, lavishes money on left-wing groups, Ms. Barker reasonably surmises, “to try to right her family’s wrongs.”
Nothing like the ecosystem created by these plutocratic ideologues exists on the right, which has its own pathologies. That the left’s multibillion-dollar matrix tends to generate crackpot candidates in the grip of conspiracy theories hardly surprises.” – Barton Swain, Opinion Columnist, Unruly Republic, The Wall Street Journal. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donors-make-democrats-crazy-1ce06605?mod=author_content_page_1_pos_1
My cmt: Regular readers know that I blame the Democrats for the second Trump Presidency. A reasonably moderate Democrat ticket in 2024 would have easily defeated Trump. But it gets worse: Howard Schultz, former CEO of Starbucks, considered running for President as early as 2012, but the Democrats didn’t want him because he was too moderate. Too bad – he could have beaten Trump in 2016. He has charisma; Hillary didn’t. Had Schultz run in 2016, Trump would be just another failed politician instead of a two-time President.

A BRITISH PSYCHIATRIST DEBUNKS AN AMERICAN RACIAL MYTH (WSJ – Excerpt)
“Life at the Bottom,” a 2001 collection of essays by Theodore Dalrymple, the pen name of Anthony Daniels, who worked as a psychiatrist and physician in a British slum and nearby prison. Anyone familiar with the antisocial behavior that characterizes so many black ghettos in the U.S.—the drug use, promiscuity, domestic abuse, violent crime, aversion to education—will recognize the world Dr. Dalrymple chronicles. The difference is that he’s describing the U.K.’s white underclass…
…The book’s essays “demonstrated that the social problems of America were not primarily racial in origin—in the sense that the black population was disproportionately disposed to them because of either inherent defect or the historical injustice they had undoubtedly suffered—but because of the culture and mores that a proportion of that population now espoused,” Dr. Dalrymple writes in a preface to a new edition of his book. “What I observed in England was a breakdown similar to that in these poor, black neighborhoods in America, but the population was white rather than black and therefore race had nothing to do with it.” – Jason L. Riley, Opinion Columnist, Upward Mobility, The Wall Street Journal. (Mr. Riley is a minority.) Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-british-psychiatrist-debunks-an-american-racial-myth-df57a7b2

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DEMS BLOCKED TRUMP OIL PURCHASE (Moneywise)
“At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, President Trump ordered the Department of Energy (DOE) to capitalize on low oil prices and shore up the SPR [Strategic Oil Reserve] with 77 million barrels. At that time, the price of oil was trading between $20 and $30 a barrel, which makes the proposed $3 billion purchase a steal compared with today’s prices in the $90-$100 range. In hindsight, this decision looks like a no-brainer. But not all lawmakers — particularly Democrats — saw it that way. For instance, Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was openly opposed to the $3 billion purchase, calling it a “bailout for big oil,” according to CNBC.” Story at…
Democrats killed Trump's $3B plan to fill the oil reserve at $20 a barrel in 2020 — now it's at its lowest since 1983
My cmt: Have I ever said that all politicians are weasels?

DURABLE GOODS (Census Bureau)
“New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, up three of the last four months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $334.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 4.0 percent May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.3 percent. Computers and electronic products, up nine of the last ten months, led the increase, $0.9 billion or 3.1 percent to $31.1 billion.” Report at…
https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf
My cmt: Durable Goods orders were up, but less than expected.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about a point to 7413.
-VIX rose about 0.5% to 18.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.647% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -13 to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Another bear sign popped up today although it is not one of my indicators. The 50-dMA of the S&P 500 turned down today. The curve had been rising. This is telling us that the S&P 500 is trending down.

Breadth has also trended down over the last 2-weeks – more issues on the NYSE have gone down over the last 2-weeks than have gone up.

The S&P 500 closed 0.8% below its 50-dMA. That’s the third consecutive close below the 50-day. Many would consider that to be a trend break. Perhaps, but given that this decline is news driven, I am not willing to make changes to the portfolio yet. There was a new Bullish sign today.

Monday, there was a bullish outside reversal pattern on the charts.
“A Bullish Outside Reversal is a two-day technical analysis candlestick pattern that signals a potential reversal of a downtrend, indicating that buyers (bulls) have taken control from sellers (bears). It occurs when the current session's price range completely engulfs the previous session's range, often appearing as a Bullish Engulfing pattern” – Investopedia.

Perhaps the Bullish Outside reversal will lead to a “Turning Tuesday.” As Jeffrey Saut once wrote regarding a past downturn: “… once the markets get into one of these weekly downside skeins, they rarely bottom on a Friday. Nope, they typically give participants over the weekend to brood about their losses and then they show up the next Monday in “sell mode” leading to Turning Tuesday.”

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish and will remain so until the S&P 500 climbs above its 50-day or indicators improve. Both the chart and indicators remain concerning.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
I updated the Momentum Chart: Google has been added; Verizon deleted.

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, July 24, 2026

S&P PMI … New Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

"Mike Pence didn't have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution." – Donald Trump, Tweet sent at 2:24 p.m. on Jan. 6, as rioters attacked the Capitol.
My cmt: If VP Pence hadn’t certified the election, as Trump demanded, in theory, the election would have been settled in the House of Representatives on a State-by-State basis. If all the Republicans had gone along, Trump would have been appointed President in 2020, even though he lost the election.
FYI: The Constitution does not give the Vice President the power to ignore the Electoral College and fail to certify an election. It is probable that if Pence hadn’t certified the election, the Supreme Court would have certified it, but fortunately, Pence was a man of honor (unlike many of our current politicians) and we’ll never know.

S&P SERVICES PMI / MANUFACTURING PMI (S&P Global)
“US business activity growth accelerated at the start of the third quarter, according to provisional PMI® survey data, reaching an eight-month high and prompting firms to add staff for the first time in three months. Business confidence in the year-ahead outlook also rose to an eight-month high.
However, the improvement was confined to services, while manufacturing growth slowed sharply. Supplier delays meanwhile worsened to the greatest extent in nearly four years amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Price pressures also intensified, with input cost inflation reaching a 14-month high and selling price inflation close to a four-year peak.” Report at…
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/

NEW HOME SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“New-home sales in the US climbed in June for the first time in three months as heavy builder discounting helped offset high mortgage rates and subdued consumer sentiment.” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/us-home-sales-rise-first-143402237.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.05% to 7412.
-VIX declined about 1% to 18.58.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.681% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -9 to -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

The S&P 500 closed 0.8% below its 50-dMA. That’s consecutive closes below the 50-day. Many would consider that to be a trend break. Perhaps, but given that this decline is news driven, I am not willing to make changes to the portfolio yet.

The 5-10-20 Timer system indicator flashed sell today. It is based on the 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages of the Index. This contribution to the 50-day indicator spread is somewhat suspect as are other chart crossover indicators. The reason is that the S&P 500 has been nearly flat since early June, as have been moving averages, so it doesn’t take a very big move in the S&P 500 to create a bullish or bearish signal.

Reviewing price action today we note that volume declined, compared to yesterday’s low and there were improvements in market internals. These signals may be suggesting we’ll see higher prices next week.

Still, if indicators continue to drop to the point that we see zero bull indicators, it will be time to “panic.” We remember John Hussman’s words: “Faced with a combination of record speculative extremes and deteriorating speculative conditions, investors may want to remember that the best time to panic is before everyone else does.”

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish and will remain so until the S&P 500 climbs above its 50-day or indicators improve. Now, both the chart and indicators are concerning.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, July 23, 2026

National Activity Index … Jobless Claims … Kansas City Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

TROUBLING UPDATE (Blusher Me)
“Every American household is now paying close to $700 a month toward something no one ever signed up for: interest on the national debt. According to the Congressional Budget Office, that cost has already topped $857 billion this fiscal year, about $23.8 billion every week. None of it builds a road, funds a school, or covers a Social Security check. It only keeps the government's existing bonds from defaulting.” Story at…
Treasury Department has a troubling update for every American taxpayer

TRUMP IMMUNITY IN QUESTION (Raw Story)
“At issue is a tweet Trump sent at 2:24 p.m. on Jan. 6, as rioters were breaching the Capitol. The tweet said: "Mike Pence didn't have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution." In March, Mehta [U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta] ruled the tweet was an official act and therefore immune from civil liability.”
Trump immunity in question after judge finds tweet 'poured gasoline' on Jan. 6 riot
My cmt: This one may wind up in the Supreme Court. It seems to me that attempts to overthrow the results of the 2020 election would not be “official acts,” but one never knows. Judge Mehta (Appointed by President Obama) said “official.”

NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure…The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.02 in June from -0.19 in May.” Analysis at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/23/cfnai-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-economic-growth-june-2026

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“U.S. applications for jobless benefits tumbled to the lowest level in more than five decades last week as layoffs remain historically low despite global economic uncertainty.
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits in the week ending July 18 declined by 22,000 to 187,000…” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-097a210a86c0bebcba2b2625cd04c2dc

KANSAS CITY MANUFACTURING (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity remained steady in June. The composite index came in at 9 this month, down slightly from 11 in June but still indicating continued expansion.” Analysis at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/23/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-index-steady-growth-in-july

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1.2% to 7408.
-VIX rose about 18% to 19.66.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.699% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -4 to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

IBM’s poor earnings news Wednesday; Iran war heating up; Oil Prices up – $100 per barrel; bond market is worried (10-year at 4.699%) – that’s plenty of bad news. Technical indicators have been trumped by the news, but we didn’t see many bull-signs today anyway.

The 50-dMA of the S&P 500 has been broken again. The S&P 500 closed 0.9% below its 50-dMA. That’s a worry. Perhaps Intel’s good earnings report will help. Intel was up 13% at one point after hours, although it settled back to about 6% as I am writing this.

Thursday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost always occur on/or near Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms. Today could be a short-term bottom, but there are currently no Bottom Indicators and volume increased today. That is not a sign that suggests a bottom.

We’ve been watching Micron Technology (MU) to see if the correction in technology, especially the chips, might be ending. Micron was up another 3% Wednesday, but does it mean anything? Probably not – the news is bad and it doesn’t seem like one stock going higher is enough to stop the selling.

It appears that the market is mostly at the mercy of the Iran conflict and that is driven by two unpredictable forces – Iranian mullahs and Donald Trump. If I sell any stock, it would be a relatively minor adjustment. We have seen huge jumps in the market with any good news in Iran so making big moves may not be wise. If oil prices go higher or it looks like oil shortages might hit the US – all bets are off. So far, it does not appear that oil shortages are expected.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish and will remain so tomorrow, unless the S&P 500 climbs above its 50-day.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)