Navigate the Stock Market

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

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Look out…I am, once again, going off the rails on the 2020 election. Some of this is old and I have covered it before, but Trump keeps bringing it up. Skip it if you’re tired of my rants…

WHY DO SO MANY PEOPLE AGREE WITH TRUMP THAT THE 2020 ELECTION WAS STOLEN?
Well, the following article is typical of the garbage on the internet and it was widely circulated:
HEARTLAND POLL CLAIMS VOTER FRAUD WAS WIDESPREAD DURING 2020 (Yahoo Finance)
“A new poll [2023] by The Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports found one-in-five voters who cast mail-in ballots during the 2020 presidential election admit to participating in at least one kind of voter fraud.” – Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heartland-rasmussen-poll-one-five-161100197.html
My cmt: First of all, we need to always question the source of information. Immediately we see that the Heartland Institute is best known for its support of the tobacco industry. For more than a decade, the Heartland Institute claimed that smoking did not cause health problems. Hmmm...doesn’t seem too reputable to me. When I looked at some of the questions in the poll – They’re suspiciously worded and some of the results seem impossible. For example: “During the 2020 election, did you fill out a ballot, in part or in full, on behalf of a friend or family member, such as a spouse or child?” 21% of respondents said Yes. There’s nothing wrong with that activity and it is allowed in most states as long as the person who filled out the ballot didn’t forge a signature.

Yahoo also reported that “17% of mail-in voters said they voted “in a state where you were no longer a permanent resident.” This is extraordinarily high. It implies that 17% of mail in voters moved and that seems bogus; but since a lot of people did move during the pandemic, it’s possible that that many moved due to Covid. But the question doesn’t ask whether they voted twice; so while this might be a technical violation, it does not suggest that the election results were changed by these absentee voters. The question really is, “Did 17% of voters vote twice?” The poll doesn’t answer that question.

The Heritage Foundation maintains a voter fraud database and I have previously reported cases where voters voted in more than one state. For example, from the database: “Carol Hannah, was registered to vote in Mohave County, Arizona, and Adams County, Colorado, and was convicted of voter fraud for voting in both states during the 2010 election. Hannah's double voting was detected by the Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck Program, a system in which Arizona shares voter data with at least 20 other states. She was convicted and sentenced to three years' supervised probation and $1,000 in fines.” Voter fraud is a criminal offense. So far there is no evidence that fraud changed the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election.

The above Yahoo article concludes with the statement that “Taken together, the results of these survey questions appear to show that voter fraud was widespread in the 2020 election, especially among those who cast mail-in ballots.”

I’d say that what the article shows is that the author of this article is not very good at critical thinking and is more interested in getting views than providing worthwhile information.

Let’s check “voter fraud” in the 2020 election.
2020 VOTER FRAUD (Heritage Foundation Database)
Heritage Foundation reports that there have been 17 convictions for voter fraud in 2020. [Could be higher now; I haven’t checked this in a while.] Convictions included the following offenses: False Registrations; Buying Votes; Ballot Petition Fraud; Illegal "Assistance" at the Polls; Fraudulent Use of Absentee Ballots; and Ineligible Voting. A few from past elections follow:
-“Randy Allen Jumper voted twice in the 2016 general election. He voted by absentee ballot in Arizona and again by absentee ballot in Nevada. He pleaded guilty to attempted illegal voting, a class 6 felony. He was sentenced to two years probation, fined $5,000, and is barred from voting in Arizona.”
- “April Atilano, of Monterey County, pleaded guilty to 6 counts of felony voter fraud for falsifying voter registration forms. Atilano falsified a number of voter registration cards by changing party affiliation and forging signatures. The forms were submitted to the Madera County Registrar of Voters in July 2019. Atilano was sentenced to one year in prison and three years probation.”
-“Delores "Dee" Handy, of Crowley was found guilty of failing to mark a ballot as instructed when assisting an elderly voter, a misdemeanor. She was sentenced to 11 months in jail which was suspended, two years of probation, and fined $800.”

According to Trump. he was robbed in Georgia due to absentee voting, so let’s look at the numbers.
Donald trump won Georgia by 211,000 votes in 2016; Trump lost Georgia by 12,000 in 2020. So, by Trump’s claims, the Democrats would have needed to falsify at least 233,000 votes to flip the election. Since paper ballots matched the voting machines, the machines weren’t to blame. [Fox paid $750-million for lying about voter-machine fraud.] Absentee ballots? Absentee ballots were matched to voter registrations and signatures were checked. The Dems would have needed to forge close to a quarter-million signatures of existing voters and get them past the verifiers certifying the election - Absurd. Oh, by the way, if any of the 233,000 real people whose identities were stolen voted, they would be identified for duplicate voting. Could the Dems register a quarter million fake names and use them to vote? Not likely. As noted above, Ms. Alitano got caught submitting 6 false registrations.

It is simply impossible to steal an election on the scale that Trump continues to claim.
For more, see the Heritage Foundation website and search the database at...
https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud

On the most commonsense level, Trump was behind in the polls before the 2020 election. Why would anyone be surprised he lost? Further, it the Dems were so good at faking votes, why didn’t they give themselves a clear majority in the Senate so they could do whatever they wanted when Biden was President? (They didn’t get a majority in the Senate until runoff elections in Georgia were held after the 2020 Presidential election. Democrats won both Senate seats in the Georgia runoff after the November election thanks to Trump’s lying about the stolen election.)

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Back to the stock market…
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 7499.
-VIX declined about 2% to 16.64. (VIX was down? What were the Options Players thinking?)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.659% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

It was disappointing that the Index couldn’t hang on to its highs, but at least the close was higher than the morning lows.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -6 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

My comment is the same as Tuesday: I’ll take the optimistic side and suggest that the daily improvement in spread is more important than the smoothed 10-day value.

We’ve been watching Micron Technology (MU) to see if the correction in technology, especially the chips, might be ending. Micron only slipped 1.2% Wednesday. After the 12% move higher yesterday, a 1% dip today should be considered good news.

The S&P 500 slipped Wednesday, but it remains 0.4% above its 50-dMA. I follow the indicators, but we use them in conjunction with price action. Price above the 50-dmMA is in the safe zone.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -8 to -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

I’ll take the optimistic side and suggest that the daily improvement in spread is more important than the smoothed 10-day value.

We’ve been watching Micron Technology (MU) to see if the correction in technology, especially the chips, might be ending. Micron was up over 12% today and another 1.6% after hours. We may have seen an end to the technology correction? I think so, but what I think is not important – we need to see indicators continue to improve.

The S&P 500 bounce took it 0.5% above its 50-dMA, so that concern has been negated for now.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, July 20, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

THE SAVE ACT (WSJ-Excerpt)
“President Trump broke into prime-time TV on Thursday night to talk to the nation about election security, but it must have been a letdown for anybody expecting a thrilling plot twist in Mr. Trump’s long yarn about his 2020 defeat. Instead he made a sales pitch for a bill that can’t pass, using doubts it wouldn’t address…since Mr. Trump declassified the [intelligence] memo, we can quote the part he didn’t. “Vote tabulation systems would be difficult to manipulate on a wide enough scale to compromise election results,” it says. “The systems in each voting location are not connected to the Internet or to each other, and many methods for exploiting them rely on physical proximity.” Achieving it across many jurisdictions “would be difficult” and “audits and paper trails very likely would uncover such an effort.” …
…There are ways to improve voting integrity, but Mr. Tillis [Thom Tillis, Republican, North Carolina] is right that it’s reckless to sow generalized suspicion that American elections aren’t honest. In fact, the intel memo Mr. Trump declassified warned this is what a U.S. adversary might do. “Much of the voting public probably knows little about the process of administering US elections,” it says, “which could allow false narratives to gain traction.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-save-america-act-elections-voting-7cc3fe5b
My cmt: Re: “Much of the voting public probably knows little about the process of administering US elections.” No kidding. I’ve discussed the 2020 Georgia election with Trump fans who think that all one needed to do was send in a couple hundred thousand absentee ballots to throw the election. When I explained that in 2020, Georgia mail-in votes were validated by matching signatures to the voter’s signature on file and that each ballot needed a corresponding voter registration, they were incredulous. The response? “So, you say.” No kidding.
…For a state-by-state summary of Trump’s 2020 stolen election lies see my blog from a few weeks ago at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2026/06/consumer-confidence-momentum-trading.html

I’M VOTING AGAINST THE SAVE ACT – A REPUBLICAN RESPONDS (WSJ-Excerpt)
“President Trump made his case for the SAVE America Act on Thursday, claiming the security of our elections is at stake. While I support the bill’s core tenets—ensuring that only American citizens vote and requiring identification when voting—I remain opposed to it. Why? Because it would have serious negative effects in Alaska, and the current text doesn’t allow for the time and resources needed for proper implementation.
As written, the SAVE America Act isn’t a simple fix to safeguard elections, as proponents claim. It would impose costly new barriers and prevent some, perhaps many, from voting, while also creating chaos before the November elections…I have expressed my concerns with the SAVE America Act for months. I filed several amendments when it came to the Senate floor. No effort has been made to correct its flaws.” - Lisa Murkowski, Senator (R), Alaska. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/why-im-voting-against-the-save-america-act-139faa0b

CHEVRON SEEKS ALTERNATIVE TO HORMUZ (WSJ)
“Chevron intends to sign preliminary deals Friday to invest in two Iraqi oil fields and will join a consortium of investors exploring the construction of a pipeline to connect Iraq’s oil patch with the Syrian coast. Iraq and other Middle East oil producers are scrambling for alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz…About 20% of the world’s oil transited the waterway before the Iran war began.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/chevron-will-explore-creating-strait-of-hormuz-alternative-for-iraqi-oil-36308abf

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7443.
-VIX declined about 0.6% to 18.65. (The Options boys weren’t concerned.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.594% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

The S&P 500 closed 0.3% below its 50-dMA. That’s consecutive closes below the 50-day and some consider this to be a trend reversal sign. It could be, but there were some contrary (good signs) in technology. Microsoft was up over 2%. (Maybe software isn’t dead yet.) The Technology ETF, XLK, was up about 0.1%. Even Micron saw improvement.

One of the market’s whipping boys, Micron Technology (MU), is down 30% in 3 weeks. Its PE has fallen to 19.6 on a trailing basis – well below the S&P 500 (25.5 on a trailing basis). Micron (MU) was up nearly 2% on the day Monday and is up about 1% in afterhours trading as I write this.

I know “rotation” has been the buzz word for a few weeks, as in, “Markets are rotating out of tech.” That rotation needs to reverse. When leaders fail, markets fall. A turn higher by tech is probably overdue. If tech is making a turn, the rest of the market is likely to follow so I am not going to adjust the portfolio until I get stronger signals on the market, up or down, but more declines in price for the S&P 500 would be a strong negative signal.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral and leaning bearish. I’m still looking for a bounce, but I have been wrong before.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, July 17, 2026

Housing … Industrial Production … Sentiment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

DEMOCRATS BLOCKADE NATIONAL SECURITY (WSJ – Excerpt)
"Do Senate Democrats care more about opposing President Trump than protecting national security? That’s certainly what it looks like as they obstruct bill after bill to safeguard the homeland and defend against enemies. Their latest damaging act of resistance came Tuesday when they blocked the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) from advancing…The opinion polls suggest Democrats will gain seats in Congress this year, and maybe win both the Senate and House. But the more they show they care very little for U.S. security, the more voters may conclude that would be an historic mistake.” WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/democrats-ndaa-chuck-schumer-national-defense-b243e58b

HOUSING STARTS (Mortgage News Daily)
“Residential construction rebounded in June as housing starts and completions recovered from May's unusually weak levels, though building permits continued to trend lower. The latest Census Bureau data suggests that while builders remain cautious about future projects, construction activity itself regained momentum after last month's sharp pullback.” Story at…
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/07172026-housing-starts-building-permits-new-residenti

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (RTT News)
“Industrial production in the U.S. edged slightly higher in the month of June, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve on Friday. The Fed said industrial production crept up by 0.1 percent in June, matching the uptick seen in May.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3668117/u-s-industrial-production-inches-up-0-1-in-june-slightly-less-than-expected.aspx?type=ts

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“With the second straight month of 10% jumps, consumer sentiment climbed to its highest reading since February of this year on the basis of easing price pressures at the pump in recent weeks…Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down from 4.6% in June to a still-elevated 4.2% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings. Long-run inflation expectations held steady from last month at 3.3%, remaining a bit higher than the 2.8% to 3.2% range seen in 2024.” Report at…
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1% to 7458.
-VIX rose about 12% to 18.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down slightly to 4.551% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign.

We’ve been watching price action and it has been disappointing. Today, the S&P 500 dipped slightly below its 50-day moving average (50-dMA). That’s a warning sign and if it remains below the 50-day on Monday I may cut stock holdings somewhat as a cautionary move. The S&P 500 is around its lower trend line. It may be above or below it depending on the scales one uses to draw the curves. Don’t put too much faith in the trendlines on the Summary of 50 Indicator Spread chart above, they’re helpful, but not always exact – I’d rather look at the 50-dMA.

Friday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time,

Bottoms almost always occur on/or near Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms. Today could be a short-term bottom, but there are currently no Bottom Indicators, so we really can only guess.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral and somewhat cautious. My guess is that the Index will bounce higher from Friday’s low, but that is mostly guess – let’s watch the 50-dMA.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, July 16, 2026

Jobless Claims … Retail Sales … Philly Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

IBM’s WORST DAY EVER (Fortune)
“That juxtaposition—banks minting money while IBM suffered a 115-year collapse on a 3.7% revenue miss—is the puzzle at the center of what Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins, thinks markets are getting dangerously wrong about the AI boom. For two years, investors have been debating whether AI stocks are too expensive. Hanke said that’s true, but it’s the wrong question. “We really have two bubbles in markets,” he told me. One is a classic valuation bubble of price versus earnings, as exemplified by the famous CAPE Shiller index. But the more dangerous mispricing, he argued, isn’t in valuations at all. It’s in the earnings themselves…
…IBM’s crash may be the first visible crack not in valuations but in the earnings story underneath them: a company whose numbers weren’t that bad still got punished as if the market suddenly stopped believing the profit growth narrative altogether. Whether that’s a single-stock anomaly or a signal that the market has quietly repriced its tolerance for earnings disappointment across the sector is the question the rest of earnings season will start to answer.
For now, the more dangerous question may have been hiding in plain sight the entire time—not whether AI stocks are too expensive, but whether the earnings behind them were ever as real as they looked.” Story at…
Why IBM just suffered its worst stock crash of all time—and what it says about the market’s two bubbles

JOBLESS CLAIMS (The Valley Sun)
“New U.S. unemployment claims fell by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 208,000 for the week ending July 11, coming in lower than economists’ forecasts of 217,000.” Story at…
https://sjvsun.com/u-s/jobless-claims-drop-indicating-continued-labor-market-strength/

PHILLY FED BUSINESS INDEX (RTT News)
“…regional manufacturing activity soared by much more than expected in the month of July. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity skyrocketed to 41.4 in July from 10.3 in June, with a positive reading indicating growth. Economists had expected the index to rise to 13.0.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3667688/philly-fed-index-soars-to-nearly-five-year-high-in-july.aspx

RETAIL SALES (CNN)
“Spending at US retailers last month was weaker than expected, despite the World Cup drawing tourists from around the world and online sales events. Retail sales rose 0.2% in June from the prior month…” Story at…
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/16/economy/us-retail-sales-june
My cmt: I asked Google AI about year-over-year retail sales gain. The response was: “US retail and food services sales in June rose to $768.6 billion—a 6.7% increase year-over-year.” Can’t complain about that number.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7534.
-VIX rose about 7% to 15.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.557% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +8 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

3 times as many bull signs as bear signs today – what’s not to like? - price action was weak in the indices.

Advancers outpaced decliners; advancing volume was slightly higher than declining volume and new-highs far out numbered new-lows. Good internals usually are good for the S&P 500 so we should see an up-day tomorrow. Unfortunately, futures are down as I write this Thursday evening.

So far Breadth remains in bullish territory and indicators continue to improve. Will price follow? It usually does, as shown in the Summary of 50-Indicator Spread above.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

PPI … NY FED Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

88% of TRADERS BET ON A MARKET PLUNGE (Investors Business Daily)
“…it turns out many bettors in prediction market Kalshi are pretty bearish about the stock market. Nearly 90% of the wagers on "How low will the S&P 500 get this year" are calling for a plunge of at least 16%. And nearly 13% are betting on a crash of more than 21%...Investors learn time and time again that eventually, reality catches up with markets. Already, shares of newly public Space Exploration, Elon Musk's massive bet on an interstellar AI empire are coming back to earth. Shares of Microsoft, too, one of the earliest players in AI with its investment in OpenAI, are down nearly 20% this year. Yes, AI is amazing. And there are other positive events driving the S&P 500. But gamblers think it's time to take some chips off the table.” Story at…
Traders bet there's an 88% chance the S&P 500 will plunge soon

PPI (CNBC)
"The produce price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.3% decline for the month…On an annual basis, the index indicated a 5.5% inflation rate…Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.2%...” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/wholesale-inflation-june-2026-.html

NY FED MANUFACTURING (RTT News)
"A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Wednesday showed regional manufacturing activity has picked up considerably in the month of July. The New York Fed said its general business conditions index jumped to 15.6 in July from 5.7 in June, with a positive reading indicating growth.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3667274/new-york-manufacturing-activity-picks-up-considerably-in-july.aspx

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7572.
-VIX declined about 5% to 15.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.551% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher.,, Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +2 to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Looks like the markets aren’t too worried about renewed hostilities with Iran. Inflation news was good again today and that helped.

So far Breadth remains in bullish territory and indicators have improved.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish again.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)