Thursday, April 9, 2026

Fed Minutes … Personal Income & Spending … PCE Prices … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
STRAIT OF HORMUZ STAYS SHUT (Axios – 7pm Thursday)
“President Trump on Thursday demanded Iran stop charging tolls for tankers to cross the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran's supreme leader promised the country would control the crucial waterway.
Why it matters: The already shaky ceasefire between the two countries is getting more strained by the day, even as they prepare for peace talks in Islamabad on Saturday.” Story at…
 
IRAN ATTACKS SAUDI PIPELINE (CNBC)
“Saudi Arabia’s critical pipeline to the Red Sea suffered a recent attack from Iran, cutting throughput by 700,000 barrels per day. The attack hit a pumping station on the East-West pipeline, according to a state-news agency report. This pipeline brings crude oil from processing facilities near the Persian Gulf to an export terminal on the Red Sea called Yanbu.” Story at…
 
FED MINUTES (Axios)
“Some Federal Reserve officials wanted to keep interest rate increases on the table, given the stubborn inflation that was set to be amplified by the Iran war, according to minutes from the central bank's March 17-18 policy meeting, released Wednesday…"Many participants judged that, in time, it would likely become appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations," the minutes show.” Story at…
 
PERSONAL INCOME / SPENDING / PCE PRICES (Yahoo Finance)
“Personal incomes in the United States fell by $18.2 billion in February as inflation maintained a seasonally adjusted rate of 3%, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.
The decrease in personal income is about a 0.1% drop in spending power… February's 3% [PCE] index excludes volatile food and energy. The all-items inflation rate for the month was 2.8%.
My cmt: 2.8% PCE inflation data was posted before the Iran attacks. It remains above the Fed 2% target.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans applying for jobless aid for the week ending April 4 jumped by 16,000 to 219,000 from the previous week’s 203,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That’s more than the 210,000 new filings analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet were expecting but within the range of the past several years.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6825.
-VIX fell about 7% to 19.49.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.287% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 2.2% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: 2.5%
Trading Days since top: 60. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +15 to +16 (16 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
The bull-Bear spread pretty much says it all. It is giving a very bullish signal. Investors have decided that the Iran conflict poses no threat to the economy.
 
I am fully invested for a retired guy and I see no reason to take on more risk. In general, most investors have decided the war poses little risk and we see that in the bullish indicators. I don’t know; the news stories above could lead to a ground war with Iran. Iran has been emboldened by their control of the world’s oi supply via the Strait of Hormuz. 

 

I've been saying it for a while; the bottom is in. 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I may add a small % to the stock portfolio soon, but I won’t be making any big moves.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Wednesday, April 8, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
WAR NEWS (MS Now)
“Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran,” Trump said in his social media post Tuesday night…That 10-point plan, the one Trump called “a workable basis on which to negotiate” on Tuesday night? On Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called it “fundamentally unserious, unacceptable and completely discarded,” claiming the president literally threw it in the garbage.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 2.5% to 6783.
-VIX fell about 18% to 21.04.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.293% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 2.8% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: 1.9%
Trading Days since top: 59. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +4 to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
There were a host of new bullish indicators today. A few are:
-Sentiment was bearish yesterday as retail investors bet against the markets. Too much bearishness is bullish.
-There was a big bullish jump in the indicators.
-The S&P 500 closed above its 200-dMA and finished slightly above its 50-dMA.
-My 50-dMA breadth-indicator has been bearish; today it finally turned bullish.
 
I have been saying for several days that the bottom was in.  There won’t be many arguing about that after today.
 
Tomorrow should be a down day based on the big move higher today. I’ll add some to the stock portfolio if I have the time. Tomorrow will be a busy day so I expect to post the blog late.
 
Stocks could still retest the low depending on the news. My guess is that there will not be a retest, but who knows? As the “War News” story above indicates, we don’t really know what’s going on.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I will add a small % to the stock portfolio, barring unforeseen issues.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Durable Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
DURABLE ORDERS (Marketplace)
“According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau for February, orders were down 1.4%. It’s the third straight monthly decline, a pattern that predates the war in the Middle East…Shwayder said looking over a longer time horizon, orders have declined in four out of the last five months. ‘This could be taken as an indicator that things are slowing down,’ he said.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6617.
-VIX rose about 7% to 25.78. (Options Players aren’t all that sanguine.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.301% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5.2% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % below 200-dMA: 0.5%
Trading Days since top: 58. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +6 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
We never got a strong confirmation of the low, but signs are looking good. Indicators have sharply rebounded. Breadth has been steadily improving. As I’ve been saying for a while, it looks like the bottom is in.
 
I’d still feel better if the Index would climb above its 200-day moving average and it is possible we could see a re-test of the low, but that probably depends on the news.
 
I am still fully invested at 55% stocks in the portfolio, although I have a 20% cash position since I took some profits near the top. 50% in stocks is a good conservative position for a retiree. I don’t feel bad about having a high cash position since it is earning around 3.5%. Even though I think the bottom is in, I’m not rushing to add to stocks. As a retiree, return of investments is more important than return on investments.
 
Futures are rising as I write this. Investors are guessing that Trump will give Iran negotiations more time. I suspect he will.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’d like to see the S&P 500 climb above its 200-dMA, but I may begin to add to stocks soon, barring unforeseen issues.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
 
Posted by at

Monday, April 6, 2026

ISM Manufacturing … Payroll Report … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
TRUMP APROVAL ON THE ECONOMY HITS A NEW LOW (USA Today)
“President Donald Trump received his worst approval on the economy across both his presidencies in a new poll by CNN/SSRS released April 1. The poll found 31% of Americans approve of how Trump is handling the economy…” Story at…
My cmt: What a curious finding. There are countless reasons to disapprove of Trump, but by most accounts, the economy is in good shape. Business Schools used to teach that the lowest possible unemployment rate was 4%. It is currently 4.3%, close to “max full-employment.” I suspect that poll respondents don’t like high inflation. But that is a holdover from the Biden tenure when inflation hit 9% per year. At that rate, prices double every 8-years. Inflation was 2.4% in February. Prices double every 30 years at the current inflation rate.
 
The FED has a target inflation rate of 2%. You may wonder why it isn’t zero. The reason is Economists are afraid of deflation, when prices are falling. In that scenario, no one buys anything since they are waiting for lower prices. If no one is buying, there would be massive layoffs in retail, auto, manufacturing, etc. Falling prices aren’t good if they persist.
 
JANIE DIMON LETTER (Barrons)
“’The skunk at the party—and it could happen in 2026—would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down,’ Dimon wrote on Monday in his annual letter to shareholders. ‘This alone could cause interest rates to rise and asset prices to drop. Interest rates are like gravity to almost all asset prices,’ Dimon added. And falling asset prices at one point can change sentiment rapidly and cause a flight to cash.’” Story at…
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
60% UPSIDE FOR TWO STOCKS (Motley Fool)
“The Nasdaq Composite is off nearly 10% as investors factor in the risk that artificial intelligence (AI) agents could pressure demand for software from some industry leaders. That fear isn't baseless. But for large, enterprise-grade platforms, AI is more likely to increase their value to customers.
This is why Wall Street analysts still see significant upside for ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). Analysts aren't always right, but there are good reasons these companies could be rewarding investments for patient investors.” Story at…
 
THE LAST TIME THE STOCK MARKET WAS THIS EXPENSIVE… (Motley Fool)
“The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) recorded a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio of 39.2 in February. If that number doesn't mean much to you, here's the headline: The S&P 500 has only posted a CAPE ratio this high in the lead-up to the dot-com crash of 2000. The S&P 500 lost 49% of its value over the next two-and-a-half years.”
 
S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio
Chart and story at…
My cmt: The headline is scary and intended to get clicks.  The CAPE was nearly 50 preceding the Dotcom crash. That would imply another 20% gain is possible just from PE expansion. It doesn’t guarantee it of course; a crash from lower levels is possible. The article also states, “At current CAPE levels, Shiller's research implies forward annual returns of just 2%...” That assumes a crash that would yield a gain of only 2% over 10-years. I don’t see signs of a crash now.
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 56.2 percent, 2.3 percentage points higher than the 53.9 percent recorded in February. This is the 16th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)… Continuing strength in business activity, new orders and backlog of orders are positive economic signals, so the Employment Index dropping to its lowest level since December 2023 (43.5 percent) was a surprise.” Press release at…
 
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (CNBC-Friday)
“Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 during the month, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February… The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, though that was largely from a sharp reduction in the labor force.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6612.
-VIX rose about 2.3% to 24.42. (Options Players aren’t all that sanguine.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.333% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5.3% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -0.5%
Trading Days since top: 57. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +1 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, also a BULLISH sign.
 
I have been waiting for confirmation of the low that my system called on 20 March. The S&P 500 was down 7% at the time. It dropped another 2% to a low on 30 March.  Since then, we haven’t gotten much of a confirmation, but signs are looking good. Indicators have sharply rebounded on the above chart. Breadth has been improving for the last 5-sessions.
 
There are still some concerns: The S&P 500 is 0.6% below its 200-dMA and today’s volume was very low. We often hear a TV business-commentator state that a bounce is questionable due to low volume after a bottom.  I am used to seeing low volume after a bottom is made, since investors often don’t believe a low is in; but today’s number was very low. Total volume on the NYSE was about a third below the monthly average so there is investor confusion about what may be coming in the Middle East.
 
I’d still feel better if the Index would climb above its 200-day moving average, but the bottom appears to be in. It is possible we could see a re-test of the low, but that probably depends on the news.
 
I am still fully invested at 55% stocks in the portfolio, although I have a 20% cash position since I took some profits near the top. 50% in stocks is a good conservative position for a retiree. I don’t feel bad about having a high cash position since it is earning around 3.5%. Even though I think the bottom is in, I’m not rushing to add to stocks. As a retiree, return of investments is more important than return on investments.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’d like to see the S&P 500 climb above its 200-dMA, but I may still begin to add to stocks soon if indicators continue to improve.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

Posted by at

Thursday, April 2, 2026

Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
  
TRUMP LIABLE FOR JANUARY 6?
“With its controversial 6-3 ruling in Trump v. the United States, the U.S. Supreme Court's GOP-appointed hard-right supermajority ruled that U.S presidents enjoy absolute immunity from prosecution for "official" acts in office but not for "unofficial" acts… But on Tuesday, March 31, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta — applying that standard — ruled that Trump's speech at a January 6, 2021 rally in Washington, D.C. was political in nature and therefore, is not protected from civil lawsuits related to the attack on the U.S. Capitol Building.” Story at…
My cmt: I suspect that the ruling indicates that Trump could be subject to criminal prosecution once he leaves office. Of course the Supreme Court's ruling protects ALL Presidents for Official acts. How could it be otherwise?  Should we prosecute Biden for Negligent Homicide for his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal? 
 
LATEST ON THE WAR (CNN)
“• Opening the strait: More than 40 countries attended a virtual meeting to discuss “every possible” method of fully opening the Strait of Hormuz…
 • Uncertainty surrounds US plans: Markets were rattled and oil prices soared Thursday, a day after Trump’s speech signaling the US will intensify strikes on Iran. The address offered few details on a strategy for exiting the war or securing global shipping….
 • Latest strikes: Iranian media said at least eight people were killed and 95 injured in a US-Israeli strike on a major bridge outside Tehran. Trump shared video of the bridge and vowed “more to follow.” Meanwhile, Iran’s military said it had struck an Amazon cloud computing center in Bahrain.” Story at…
 
MARKETS BOTTOM EARLY IN WARS – TOM LEE (MarketWatch)
“Stock markets bottom at the beginning and not end of wars is the reassuring message that Fundstrat’s Tom Lee sent to investors in a note coinciding with the first quarter’s final trading session. While the war’s duration is unknown, Lee looks at seven major conflicts dating back to 1900 and finds equity markets have a habit of troughing early on because investors “price adverse risks early and quickly.” He notes that historically, markets bottom within the first 10% of a war’s duration.” Story at…
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell last week amid low layoffs, suggesting labor market conditions remained calm in March, though economists have warned that a ‌prolonged war in the Middle East posed a downside risk. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits ‌dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended March 28…” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6583.
-VIX declined about 3% to 23.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.309% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5.7% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -0.9%
Trading Days since top: 56. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -3 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicator), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher.

 

I call bottoms based on falling volume and improving market internals as the S&P 500 declines. We got a weak buy-signal on 26 March using that methodology. The market fell another 3% to a low on Monday, 30 March, but has rebounded since then. There was no additional signal at the low and the markets seemingly are being whipsawed by news rather than technicals. Wednesday, Trump said the US planned to intensify attacks on Iran. Markets were down sharply at the open today, but rebounded as shown in the daily chart. It's a good sign when markets climb on bad news. I may dip my toe in the markets by buying some stock soon.
 
I’d still feel better if the Index would climb above its 200-day moving average. As of Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 remains 0.9% below its 200-dMA.
 
I wish we would see a solid buy-signal, but Mr. Market rarely listens to me.
 
I am still fully invested at 55% stocks in the portfolio, although I have a 20% cash position since I took some profits near the top. 50% in stocks is a good conservative position for a retiree.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’d like to see the S&P 500 climb above its 200-dMA, but I may still begin to add to stocks soon if indicators continue to improve.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at
Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)