Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Chicago PMI … Consumer Confidence … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
RECESSIONS (MarketWatch)
“A lot of folks are likening the investments in AI to the dot-com investments of the late 90s-early 2000s.
The point I [Dr. Tyler Goodspeed, the chief economist of ExxonMobil and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers] make is that actually, the triggers for recession tend to be much more prosaic. If indeed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz were to come to a halt for a protracted period of time, you are talking about 20% of the world’s petroleum that passes through that Strait. If that Strait were to remain closed to traffic for several weeks or longer, historically, that would have been a recession trigger.
There are some other things that we can see looking around the world today that remind us of past recessions. There’s a bill making its way through Congress — I don’t think it will pass — but it would impose a 10% cap on credit card interest rates. What credit card providers would tell you is that if that were the case, then there are a lot of accounts that would be closed, and a lot of credit that would not be extended. If you look back over the past 80 years, the imposition of credit controls was an accomplice to the murder of economic expansions in 1948, 1970 and 1980. So those are some of the culprits that I think history suggests we should be looking out for, rather than the more conventional narrative of boom-bust cycles.” Story at…
 
CHICAGO PMI (Investing.com)
“The latest Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data has revealed a deceleration in the growth of the manufacturing sector within the Chicago region. The index, which serves as a key indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing industry, recorded an actual reading of 52.8. This figure, while still indicating expansion, falls short of both the anticipated forecast and the previous month’s performance.” Story at…
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board via pr newswire)
"Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers' views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future," said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. "Three of five components of the Index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021." Press release at…
 
TRUMP SAYS U.S. WILL LEAVE IRAN SOON (CNBC)
“President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he expected that United States military forces will leave Iran in “two or three weeks…We leave because there’s no reason for us to do this,” Trump told reporters at the White House.” Story at
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 2.9% to 6528.
-VIX declined about 18% to 25.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.319% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 22 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 6.4% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -1.7%
Trading Days since top: 54. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -17 to -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower – a BEARISH indication. That’s disappointing!
 
As we noted Monday:
-Only 6-days have been up in the last month.  That level of bearish action is bullish.
-Both Bollinger Bands and RSI were oversold Monday.
 
Those are both strong oversold signals suggesting a bounce. Today we got one; boy did we ever.
 
The question is simple. Was today’s bounce a technical bounce from oversold conditions or was it a reaction to “unconfirmed” reports of a possible end to the Iran war. (Unconfirmed during market hours.) The answer is simple too – “Both.”
 
Has the weakness ended as dip-buyers stampeded into the market? The news at 6PM from Trump (see above Trump story) suggests the war is ending soon. Markets will probably continue to celebrate over the next several weeks, but tomorrow may be weaker than expected.
 
Tuesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.
 
Futures are mixed as I am writing this.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Looks like we did see a “Turning Tuesday.” I may add to stocks soon, but perhaps not tomorrow.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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Not Buying Yet

CNBC has been reporting "unconfirmed" reports of Iran's willingness to end the war. Those reports were from Iranian media sources from comments made by Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian.  He is the same guy who said Iran would no longer attack neighboring countries.  How did that work out? 

I will wait for more information. Markets were significantly oversold and due for a bounce. This could be the bounce.
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Monday, March 30, 2026

Dallas Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
THE CORRECTION BOTTOM IS CLOSER THAN YOU THINK (Barrons)
“Valuations suggest an end may be near. The S&P 500 trades at just under 20 times 12 month forward earnings, down 12% from just over 22 at the end of 2025. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, notes that the decline is “as significant” as the ones that occurred in 2015 and 2023. At the same time, expected earnings growth for the next 12 months has accelerated to 17%. When the two trends have occurred simultaneously in the past, the S&P 500 has gone on to gain a median 10% over the following six months, above the long-term average of 5%, Wilson’s data show.
“We remain convicted that this is a correction in a bull market that started last April from the depths of a rolling recession,” he writes. “Our work suggests the correction is well advanced not only in time but price.” Story at…
Not everyone agrees…
 
BIGGEST CRASH IN HISTORY ABOUT TO HIT (Moneywise)
“In 2013 I [Robert Kiyosaki] published RICH DADs PROPHECY predicting the biggest crash in history was coming. Unfortunately, that crash has arrived. It’s not just the US. Europe and Asia are crashing. AI will wipe out jobs and when jobs crash office and residential real estate crashes.”
At first glance, his warning may seem at odds with the U.S. stock market, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain strong. Yet, the broader economic concerns and layoffs continue to dominate headlines…So how would Kiyosaki prepare? “Time to buy more gold, silver, bitcoin and Ethereum.” Story at…
My cmt: A big crash may be coming, but indicators aren’t suggesting it yet.
 
TIME TO BUY
“Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices… One of the best times in a long time to buy quality. Ignore the bears.” – Bil Ackman, CEO, Pershing Square Capital Management. From…
 
DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
“Texas factory activity continued to rise in March, but at a slower pace than the previous month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell six points to 6.8, a reading suggestive of a below-average pace of output expansion.” From…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 6344.
-VIX declined about 2% to 30.28.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.350% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 23 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 9.1%
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -4.4%
Trading Days since top: 53. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -12 to -17 (17 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed lower – a BEARISH indication. That’s disappointing!
 
There were bullish signs Monday:
-Monday there was High-unchanged-volume. Some think that unchanged volume is a sign of a market reversal, in this case higher. This is not one of my indicators since it is often wrong.
-Only 6-days have been up in the last month.  That level of bearish action is bullish.
-Both Bollinger Bands and RSI were oversold Monday. This can sometimes be a good bottom signal, but our main way to identify bottoms looks at volume and internals.  Volume picked up Monday suggesting more selling ahead.
 
We did get a weak bottom signal Thursday. That still could be a good signal, but weak bottom signals can be early. In March of 2025 a weak, buy-signal was followed by a 4% drop before there was a final bottom. In that 10% correction, we did not see another buy-signal at the final bottom, so it’s possible we won’t see another bottom-call this time.
 
This is a news driven decline, so technicals help, but may not give us the answers we’d like.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am still optimistic that a bottom is not far away. We’ll see.  Maybe we’ll see a “Turning Tuesday” tomorrow. I discussed this under the Paragraph “Bottom Signals” in Jeffrey Saut’s comment at…
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Saturday, March 28, 2026

Jobless Claims … Michigan Sentiment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 I was too busy to post Friday, so today we catchup. 

 

"Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, suggesting the labor market remains stable and likely giving the Federal Reserve scope to hold interest rates steady while monitoring inflation risks from the conflict in ​the Middle East… Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 for the week ended March 21.” Story at…
 
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment fell 6% this month for its lowest reading since December 2025, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. These declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, who are buffeted both by escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets, exhibited particularly large drops in sentiment… Consumers perceived meaningful declines in the trajectory of multiple dimensions of the economy. Year-ahead expectations for personal finances fell 10%, while one-year expected business conditions plunged 14%. About 61% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, up from 58% last month.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.7% to 6369.
-VIX rose about 13% to 31.05.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.428% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 8.7%
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -4%
Trading Days since top: 52. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -11 to -12 (12 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, albeit at a slower rate – a BULLISH indication. The continued improvement of the 10-dMA is a good sign.
 
The 10-day is more important than the daily numbers since it is still showing an underlying improvement in the markets. The new lows gave us some bullish indicators.
 
Both Bollinger Bands and RSI were oversold. This can sometimes be a good bottom signal, but our main way to identify bottoms looks at volume and internals.  Neither volume nor internals suggested a bottom Friday.  We did get a weak bottom signal Thursday. That still could be a good signal, but weak bottom signals can be early. In March of 2025 a weak, buy-signal was followed by a 4% drop before there was a final bottom. In that 10% correction, we did not see another buy-signal at the final bottom.
 
As I noted after Thursday’s buy-signal, this presents a difficult question for investors.  Do we buy the signal? My recommendation was to see if there was confirmation from investors on Friday.
 
There was no confirmation Friday. Instead of a strong up-day that would have confirmed the buy-signal, we got a strong down-day and more selling. So, no bottom yet.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am still optimistic that a bottom is not far away. We’ll see.  Maybe we’ll see a “Turning Tuesday.” I discussed this under the Paragraph “Bottom Signals” in Jeffrey Saut’s comment at…
 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
Posted by at

Thursday, March 26, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
SEVERE MARKET DROP? (MarketWatch)
“Three factors that have preceded double-digit stock-market declines are all present in 2026…During those years, recession, military conflict and unexpected shifts in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy were largely responsible for the steep declines, Colas said. Recession was the most frequent culprit, responsible for driving losses of 10% or greater in eight of the 12 examples.” Story at…
My cmt: The economy is not in recession and it would take extended high fuel prices to get there. Could it happen, sure, but I don’t see signs now.
 
S&P 500 WARNING SIGNS (Markets Insider)
“-The S&P 500's recent dip below its 200-day average hints at potential downside ahead.
-Lance Roberts of RIA Advisors suggests watching six technical indicators to assess market health.
-Roberts advises investors to trim large positions and hold cash to mitigate potential losses.” Story at…
 
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1.7% to 6477.
-VIX rose about 8% to 27.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.412% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 7.2%
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -2.4%
Trading Days since top: 51. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -8 to -12 (12 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher – a BULLISH indication. The continued improvement of the 10-dMA is a good sign.
 
The 10-day is more important than the daily numbers since it shows an underlying improvement in the markets.
 Thursday, there was a technical, buy-signal. Volume was much lower than the prior panic low last week and we saw sufficient (but not great) improvement in the internals to call a “Buy.”
 
This presents a difficult question for investors.  Do we buy the signal? We need to recognize that the news can overcome technicals and the war is continuing. Further, there may be no way to end the conflict without invading Iran.  That will drive the markets down. For me, I would trade the low if there is confirmation tomorrow.  The confirmation we want to see is a strong up-day suggesting that other traders agree with us.
 
The chart looked ugly today and there is no guarantee that we’ll see buying tomorrow to confirm the technical, buy-signal.
 
Unfortunately, I am traveling and won’t be doing any trading Friday.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
 
TRAVELERS GET SCREWED BECAUSE DEMOCRATS WANT TO LIMIT ICE BY DEFUNDING TSA? MAKES NO SENSE, UNLESS YOU ARE A POLITICIAN
“It’s laughable that Democrats are now demanding more reforms to an agency they still refuse to fund,” a White House official via email on Wednesday, speaking on condition of anonymity. “This latest stunt from the Democrats proves they are not interested in a serious conversation and they don’t care they their shutdown is hurting Americans… Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., said frustration was building on Wednesday.
“We literally offered what they asked for three days ago and then suddenly it’s like, oh no, now we got new stuff. This has been the story of the entire time,” Lankford said. “This has been the constant journey — one more thing, one more thing, one more thing.” From CNBC at…
My cmt: The photo above is a lie. Democrats are not the party in charge. They may be after the mid-terms, but not now.  Blackmailing Republicans by shutting down portions of Government is criminal. It’s the second time they’ve pulled this shut-down, blackmail stunt – remember they shutdown Government for 43-days last year over budget disputes? Perhaps the electorate will punish them? We’ll see. On the other hand, we can’t be too confident with MAGA Republicans running the country.
 
The MAGA’s have gutted the FBI and DOJ in a witch hunt over Trump’s false stolen-election claims…what an “F”-ing mess.
  
FED COMMENT 
"There's an unfortunate aspect of this shock to energy prices that we're likely to see an impact driving up inflation at a time when we still haven't quite cleared the previous shock that was driving up inflation… For it to be realistic that rates would come down further this year we've got to see progress on inflation…We've got to have some comfort that we are on a path back to 2% inflation." - Austan Goolsbee, President, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6592.
-VIX declined about 6% to 25.33.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.332% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5.5%
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -0.6%
Trading Days since top: 50. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -12 to -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher – a BULLISH indication. The continued improvement of the 10-dMA is a good sign.
 
The 10-day is more important than the daily numbers. I’ll consider putting some funds back into the market if the Index breaks above its 200-dMA for consecutive days or if there is real progress in opening the strait of Hormuz.
 
No confirmed, technical, buy-signal yet.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: Until proven otherwise, I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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