May the Fourth be with you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1soJQ_rGgNU
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“The scientific journal Nature in December retracted one of the most influential climate economics papers of the past decade. The paper, by Maximilian Kotz, Anders Levermann and Leonie Wenz, claimed that unmitigated climate change would cost the global economy $38 trillion a year (in 2005 international dollars) by midcentury. It was the second-most-mentioned climate paper by the media in 2024, according to Carbon Brief. The paper was cited by central banks and governments to justify aggressive climate policies.
Then it collapsed. The authors acknowledged that its errors were “too substantial” for a correction. Nature retracted the paper more than 18 months after first learning of its problems…
… Economists Finbar Curtin and Matthew Burgess at the University of Wyoming released a preprint on April 20 that points out the broader flaws with current climate change research, making the Kotz et al. retraction look like small potatoes. Their paper, “The Empirically Inscrutable Climate-Economy Relationship,” starts from the most basic question in climate economics: Can researchers actually measure how climate affects the economy from the historical record?
Their answer is no…
… If the scientific community can’t act on obviously false data—when the problems are carefully documented in the peer-reviewed literature—the prospects for soon correcting course on tens of thousands of flawed studies don’t look promising.
None of this means that climate change isn’t real. Human activity warms the planet. The uncertain risks merit serious discussion and responses. But so-called settled science that is built on flawed data and shielded from correction fails both policymakers and the public.” - Roger Pielke Jr. Senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of the Honest Broker substack. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/you-cant-trust-climate-economics-86436c3e
“To hear the critics tell it, the Supreme Court on Wednesday gutted the 1965 Voting Rights Act and made it harder for racial minorities to vote. It did no such thing. A 6-3 majority in Louisiana v. Callais took a large step toward ending the partisan abuse of race to carve up Congressional districts in a way that violates the Constitution… Justice Samuel Alito’s majority opinion gives a detailed history of Section 2 and a tour of the Court’s messy racial gerrymander jurisprudence. He stresses “the general rule that the Constitution almost never permits the Federal Government or a State to discriminate on the basis of race” except to remedy specific instances of past discrimination.
But as Justice Alito notes, much has changed since Jim Crow. The VRA stamped out discriminatory election practices. “Black voters now participate in elections at similar rates as the rest of the electorate, even turning out at higher rates than white voters in two of the five most recent Presidential elections nationwide and in Louisiana,” he writes.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/lousiana-v-callais-supreme-court-voting-rights-act-samuel-alito-4f060bdb?mod=article_inline
“The U.S. is now unmatched in a regrettable category. Among rich and spend-happy nations that are globally seen as safe investments, the U.S. beats out the competition when it comes to the size of its debt burden, as the nation’s public liabilities have exceeded the size of its economy for the first time since World War II…Rising debt comes with a long list of economic risks, including the threat that the cost of servicing that debt might crowd out other essential government spending. Another consequence would be a deterioration of the country’s once-top tier credit rating, a scenario that could lead to higher borrowing costs and even more constrained government spending. After the CRFB’s announcement, one of the world’s foremost rate-setters warned how close that scenario is to becoming reality.” Story at…
The US is in a league of its own when it comes to its debt burden, as rating agencies bemoan 'long-running deterioration' in fiscal governance
“Portfolio construction should have an order to it. Generally speaking, you start with a core position or two meant to serve as the tentpole. That could be something like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) or the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEMKT: VTI). Ideally, you wouldn't touch this and instead let the long-term power of compounding do the work for you.
From there, you can start building around the edges. Add some dividend stocks, an international fund, or maybe some bonds or gold. This is where you can tilt the portfolio in a particular direction or simply diversify beyond U.S. large-cap stocks. It's the idea that investors should build the foundation first and layer around it, not the other way around.” Story at…
Most investors build their portfolio backwards. Here's the right order.
“Total factory orders rose a stronger-than-expected 1.5% m/m in March following a 0.3% increase in February and a flat reading in January, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.” From…
https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-factory-orders-exceed-expectations-in-march
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7200.
-VIX rose about 8% to 18.29.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.432% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +5 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
It looks like we’ll see some declines in the near term, but nothing too big. I am bullish for the long term. I hope to identify a buying opportunity if we do in fact see declines. I’d love to see a retest of the March low, but I doubt that declines will be that big.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
