Navigate the Stock Market

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

CPI … Business Optimism … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

CPI (CNBC)
“Prices that consumers pay for a wide range of goods and services increased at a faster-than-expected pace in April, as another burst in energy prices raised further concerns about inflation’s impact on the U.S. economy.
The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, putting the one-year pace at 3.8%...the core CPI increased 0.4% and 2.8%, respectively…”

Story and charts at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.html

NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
"The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.1 points in April to 95.9, below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the second consecutive month…“Inflationary pressures continue to be a challenge for Main Street,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While small business optimism is currently fragile, the benefits of the Working Families Tax Cut Act should start to feed into the private sector over the next few months.” …As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, the NFIB Small Business Employment Index fell 1.2 points from March to 100.4. This decline is indicative of weakening in the labor market, though the level still suggests balance.” Report at…
https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-remains-below-average-but-stable-5/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7401.
-VIX rose about 2% to 17.99.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.465% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
SSO – Added 5/7/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was flat, a NEUTRAL sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

There was a Hindenburg Omen yesterday.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. So far, we’ve seen just one. The short-term Fosback High-Low Logic Index uses a similar method of analysis. It is not issuing a sell.

Breadth is falling and again is issuing a warning signal - over the last 2 weeks, and the last 5 months, more issues on the NYSE have gone down than have gone up.

I’ll consider selling my SSO position Wednesday if conditions continue to decline.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, May 11, 2026

Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“Chief Justice Roberts a couple of years ago famously said: ‘We don’t have Obama judges, and Biden judges, and Trump judges. We just have judges.’ So I would reject the label of a conservative justice, but I would say that I’m an originalist justice… I view myself as bound to apply the text of the Constitution—as I was saying, you know, I’m bound to apply the text of statutes—and to leave more things to the democratic process, that unless the Constitution speaks to it, then I think change should come through the ratification process. Change should come from the people.” - Amy Coney Barrett, Justice Supreme Court.

“If Abigail Spanberger and Virginia Democrats had paid attention my October 2025 AG’s Opinion that made clear this scheme was unconstitutional and illegal, they could have saved more than $70 million, countless headaches, and months of obnoxious television ads defending the indefensible. Instead, they ignored the law, wasted taxpayer money on running a special election, and dragged Virginians through a completely avoidable mess,” - General Jason Miyares, former Virginia Attorney General commenting on the failed Virginia Gerrymandering that was rejected by the Virginia Supreme Court.

UNEQUAL BATTLE BETWEEN NEW YORK MAYOR ZOHRAN MAMDANI AND CITADEL CEO KEN GIRFFIN (WSJ-excerpt)
“In a video, the mayor complained that “rich” owners of second homes in his city don’t pay their fair share, pointing to “this penthouse, which hedge-fund CEO Ken Griffin bought for $238 million.”
Citadel in 2022 moved its headquarters from Chicago to Miami, but it still maintains a large New York presence—which made it a daft target to pick. The hedge fund’s team members have paid nearly $2.3 billion in city and state taxes in the past five years, while Citadel is deciding whether to redevelop a Park Avenue office that would create 15,000 permanent Midtown Manhattan jobs…
…“When we moved from Chicago, there was a debate between New York and Miami. It’s unquestionably true that we made the right choice,” he said. “And now what the mayor of New York has made clear to my partners, and principally my New York partners… is that we need to double down on our bet in Miami. Because we want to be in a state that embraces business, that embraces education, that embraces personal freedom and liberty, and that embraces people having an opportunity to live the American dream. And a dream of earned success, not a dream of redistributive handouts that leave people dependent on government for their lives and their livelihoods in a way that takes away dignity and honor.” - Kimberley A. Strassel, member of the editorial board for The Wall Street Journal. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-red-blue-economic-divide-7868847d

ARE WE RELIVING THE LAST MONTH OF 1999 (CNBC)
“Stocks are not up or down because of jobs or consumer sentiment,” Burry [Michael Burry of “Big Short fame] wrote. “They are going straight up because they have been going straight up. On a two letter thesis that everyone thinks they understand... Feeling like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble.”
Burry compared the recent trajectory of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) with the run-up that preceded the collapse of technology stocks in March 2000.” – Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/08/michael-burry-says-the-market-today-feels-like-the-last-months-of-the-1999-2000-bubble.html

EXISTING HOME SALES (RTTnews)
“After reporting a sharp pullback by U.S. existing home sales in the previous month, the National Association of Realtors released a report on Monday showing existing home sales rebounded by much less than expected in the month of April. NAR said existing home sales crept up by 0.2 percent to an annual rate of 4.02 million in April after plunging by 2.9 percent to a revised rate of 4.01 million in March.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3650185/u-s-existing-home-sales-rebound-much-less-than-expected-in-april.aspx

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7413.
-VIX rose about 7% to 18.38.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.412% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
SSO – Added 5/7/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 made a new, all-time, high today (Monday). 140 issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week-highs today; that is below the 5-year average for this stat, but high enough to avoid trouble. Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, is ok too; we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon. Concerns remain though.

As noted yesterday, the S&P 500 has gotten too far ahead of breadth-measures. Bollinger Bands are very close to overbought and RSI is elevated too. These signals will swing my top indicators to a short-term, top-warning if the S&P 500 rises by about 1% Tuesday. That would signal that a 3-5% decline is likely. I will sell leveraged positions when I get a top-warning.

I’ll wait for indicators to improve before I add more stock positions. If we do get a 3-5% decline, it will be time to buy-the-dip.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, May 8, 2026

Employment … Michigan Sentiment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

DEMOCRATS WANT TO REFORM SUPREME COURT
“Democrats are calling for reforms to the Supreme Court again after a pivotal decision from the high court weakened the Voting Rights Act…” Video at…
Democrats renew calls to reform Supreme Court as trust in high court plummets in new poll | Watch
VICTORY FOR VOTING RIGHTS (WSJ)
“To hear the critics tell it, the Supreme Court on Wednesday gutted the 1965 Voting Rights Act and made it harder for racial minorities to vote. It did no such thing. A 6-3 majority in Louisiana v. Callais took a large step toward ending the partisan abuse of race to carve up Congressional districts in a way that violates the Constitution…” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/lousiana-v-callais-supreme-court-voting-rights-act-samuel-alito-4f060bdb?mod=article_inline
“For decades we disagreed with [Supreme] Court rulings when progressives held sway, but we never called the Court illegitimate. But now that the left has lost the Court as a backup legislature for its policy goals, the institution is supposedly broken. Tell us again who is the threat to democratic institutions?” – WSJ Editorial Board.

DEBT HEART ATTACK COMING (Fortune via msn)
“Dalio’s fiscal warning remains as stark as ever. The U.S. currently spends roughly $7 trillion annually while collecting about $5 trillion in revenue—a gap that has the federal government paying billions every week in debt service and has left the country carrying debt approximately six times its income. He likens the situation to “plaque building up” in an artery: no heart attack yet, but the nation’s financial “MRI” suggests one is coming if spending isn’t curtailed.
(In fact, Dalio understated how much the U.S. pays in interest each week: The Peter G. Peterson Foundation reports the U.S. paid $970 billion in interest in 2025, with the CBO projecting $1.039 trillion in 2026—working out to roughly $19 billion–$20 billion per week.)
The most likely outcome, in Dalio’s view, is a stagflationary spiral reminiscent of the 1970s, in which the Federal Reserve is eventually forced to print money to cover its obligations. “My grandchildren and great-grandchildren not yet born are going to be paying off this debt in devalued dollars…” Story at…
Ray Dalio: The ‘heart attack’ of America’s debt crisis is just the beginning of a ‘great turbulence’ that will reshape the country

EMPLOYMENT REPORT (NBC News)
“The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, a sign that the labor market retained its resiliency even in the face of a global energy shock triggered by the U.S. war with Iran. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%.” Story at…
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/april-jobs-report-iran-war-pressure-rcna344166
My cmt: 200,000 jobs-created was once considered a minimum necessary to allow for young people entering the work force.

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April’s reading and comparable to the trough reached in June 2022… consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall. Year-ahead inflation expectations softened a touch from 4.7% last month to 4.5% this month.” Report at…
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7399.
-VIX rose about 0.6% to 17.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.360% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
SSO – Added 5/7/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +8 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 made a new, all-time, high today (Friday). 110 issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week-highs today; that is below the 5-year average for this stat, but reasonably high enough to avoid trouble. Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, is ok too; we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon. There are concerns though.

The S&P 500 has gotten too far ahead of breadth-measures and the Smart Money is overbought. Bollinger Bands are very close to overbought and RSI is elevated too. These signals could swing my top indicators to a short-term, top-warning and signal about a 3-5% decline. I will sell leveraged positions when I get a top-warning. A 5% decline in the S&P 500 would result in a 10% loss in SSO. I’d rather avoid that.

I’ll wait for indicators to improve before I add more stock positions. If we do get a 3-5% decline, it will be time to buy-the-dip.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, May 7, 2026

Jobless Claims … Productivity … Construction Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +14 to +8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed back lower, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

Oops. I bought a trading position in a leveraged long position (SSO) because at 3PM, the 10-dMA of indicator spread was positive. It switched to a negative position on declining internals/indicators late in the day. That’s disappointing.

I’ll wait for indicators to improve before I slowly add more stock positions.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish; we may see some flattening of the FOMO trade.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Adding to Stock Positions

I plan to add to stock positioning after 3 pm depending on market action. I looked at SOXX but it seems to be near its upper, long-term, trend line - same for AMD. Surprisingly. SPY and SSO are not yet at their upper trend lines. I only have 1 top indicator warning of a top so I should be ok for a while. I'll add SSO as a trade. It might be a short-term trade - we'll see..

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

ADP Employment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“We’re not looking for a fight, but Iran also cannot be allowed to block innocent countries and their goods from an international waterway. Iran’s plan, a form of international extortion, is unacceptable.” – Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense (War).

“Iran has been carrying out the fastest wave of political executions in its recent history. In just seven weeks, at least 28 people have been put to death on political, protest-related, or espionage charges, according to a US-based human rights group. CNN’s Clarissa Ward reports.” - CNN

WSJ LETTERS (WSJ)
“Regarding Alan Dershowitz’s op-ed “Why I’m Becoming a Republican” (April 21): As the daughter of Holocaust survivors, I am sickened by how anti-Israel the Democratic Party has become. The vast majority of 20th-century Jewish immigrants who came to the U.S. all voted Democratic.
They would be horrified by what has become of the party. It’s too bad that Trump Derangement Syndrome has mutated into Israel Derangement Syndrome.” - Judith Levine

APOLLO CEO WARNS OF CORRECTION (CNBC)
“Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan on Wednesday warned investors that he is preparing his giant asset management firm for a potential market downturn and sharply criticized what he called the “egregious” practices of some rival insurers…“Everything we see in front of us is actually quite strong,” Rowan said. But there is “a much greater chance, in our opinion, of out-of-sideline results.’…Rowan put the odds of an exogenous shock at somewhere between 30% and 35%, far higher than the usual level of risk, he said.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/apollo-ceo-rowan-market-correction-rival-insurers.html

ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP)
“Private sector employment increased by 109,000 jobs in April and pay was up 4.4 percent year-over-year according to the April ADP National Employment Report®…’Small and large employers are hiring, but we're seeing softness in the middle," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Large companies have resources to deploy, and small ones are the most nimble, both important advantages in a complex labor environment.’" Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-109-000-jobs-in-april-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302764101.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.5% to 7365.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 17.39.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.426% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +9 to +16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 made a new high today (Wednesday – again {had a typo here yesterday}). 207 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is above the 5-year average for this stat. Breadth is ok; we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon

Wednesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. Tops almost always occur on Statistically-significant, up-days, but not all statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. Today could be a short-term top, but there was only 1 top indicator (late-day-action is overbought) that was bearish - not enough to send a strong top-signal.

The 10-dMA of Indicator Spread turned positive today. It last reversed higher at the bottom of the recent correction and again several days before the bottom. I didn’t buy then because the correction has been news-driven and as a retiree my goal is not to lose money. A shift in news could have sent the markets plummeting and a retiree doesn’t have the income to recover losses, so not-losing can be more important than making money.

At this point the indicators and war news look better so it is time to add to stock holdings. I don’t want to leap in because of the old “Buy-the-rumor; sell-the-news” adage. When the middle east issues are resolved we might see some selling of the news.

For now, I’ll start averaging in. The way the chips have performed and given AMD’s bullish comments, I may add the Semi-Conductor ETF, SOXX as a trade.

Is the market headed for an overblown top? Of course it is, but when? The Shiller CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted PE) is now around 40 while the peak was 44 prior to the Dotcom crash in 2000. Since there are now more investors chasing fewer stocks, I think the record high for the CAPE will be exceeded in this cycle.

During the Dotcom bust, I sold out of stock positions early in 2000 because of an article in Barrons and Bob Brinker’s Marketimer radio show. I expect to do as well in 2000. This time, I’ll be watching indicators.
Chart from…
https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/56/sp-500-shiller-cape-ratio
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, but we may see some flattening of the FOMO trade.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.