Navigate the Stock Market

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Jobless Claims … Philly Fed … Leading Economic Indicators … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger has officially signed a bill that would award the state's 13 electoral votes to whoever wins the national popular vote — regardless of how Virginians actually vote.
The legislation, part of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, passed mostly along party lines with Democrat votes. It requires 270 electoral votes from participating states to take effect.
Once activated, your individual vote in Virginia (and other compact states) would be overridden by the nationwide popular vote total.
This is a radical attempt to bypass the Electoral College and diminish the power of individual states.” – David J Harris Jr., from a Facebook post.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE BENEFITS (Heritage Foundation)
“The Electoral College prevents presidential candidates from winning an election by focusing solely on high-population urban centers and dense media markets, forcing them to seek the support of a larger cross-section of the American electorate. This addresses the Founders’ fears of a “tyranny of the majority,” which has the potential to marginalize sizeable portions of the population, particularly in rural and more remote areas of the country.
Large cities like New York City and Los Angeles should not get to unilaterally dictate policies that affect more rural states, like North Dakota and Indiana, which have very different needs. These states may be smaller, but their values still matter—they should have a say in who becomes President…While no system can completely eliminate the risk of individuals trying to cheat the system, the Electoral College minimizes the incentives for voter fraud because the system isolates the impact of stolen votes. Under the current system, stolen votes only affect the outcome of one state rather than the national outcome. This is because fraudulent votes may win the state, securing the electoral votes, but it would make no difference for the candidate to win that state with 100 stolen votes or 100,000 since the candidate would secure the same electoral votes regardless.⁵ Under a national popular vote system, though, votes stolen in one state would have an impact beyond that state’s border, since those illegitimate votes would be added to the national vote total.” – Commentary from…
https://www.heritage.org/the-essential-electoral-college/the-benefits

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Fast Company)
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits in the week ending June 13 dropped by 4,000 to 226,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.” Story at…
https://www.fastcompany.com/91561858/u-s-jobless-claims-drop-226000-unemployment-rate-stays-historically-low-4-3

PHILLY FED INDEX (rttNews)
“The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity shot up to a positive 10.3 in June from a negative 0.4 in May, with a positive reading indicating growth.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3661267/philly-fed-index-jumps-back-into-positive-territory-in-june.aspx

LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Conference Board)
"The Leading Index for the US increased slightly in May, fueled entirely by positive contributions from financial components, especially stock prices and the interest rate spread," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "On the non-financial side of the LEI, only ISM® New Orders Index showed some strength, with consumer expectations remaining a major drag. Despite two consecutive monthly increases, the LEI's six- and twelve-month growth rates were still negative, suggesting slower economic expansion ahead…The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.8% y/y GDP growth in 2026, down from 2.1% in 2025." Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-rose-for-the-second-consecutive-month-in-may-302804403.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 7501.
-VIX declined about 11% to 16.40.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.457% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -2 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), still a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

Neutral can be good.

BOTTOM LINE
I have to be neutral now, but I am still expecting indicators to turn bullish soon.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

FED Rate Decision … Housing Starts … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

VOTERS REJECT TRUMP FAKE ELECTOR (Raw Story)
“President Donald Trump's status as a kingmaker in Republican primaries got a setback on Tuesday, as Georgia GOP voters rejected his choice for the governor's race. Businessman Rick Jackson, defeated Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who had Trump's endorsement…Jones is well known for being one of the "fake electors" in the 2020 scheme to overturn former President Joe Biden's electoral win.” Story at…
Trump rebuked in Georgia as voters reject his fake elector for governor
My cmt: Coincidentally, I just mentioned Trump’s “Fake-Elector” scheme for the 2020 election this past Friday.

FED RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve chairman concluded Wednesday with no change in interest rates and a nod to possible hikes ahead. The meeting also saw the removal of key language indicating a bias toward future cuts within a dramatically shorter policy statement.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/fed-interest-rate-decision-june-2026.html

NO EASY MONEY FROM WARSH (CNBC)
“DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone than many investors expected, underscoring his commitment to restoring price stability and signaling less appetite for easy monetary policy.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/jeffrey-gundlach-says-feds-warsh-is-not-going-to-be-the-easy-money-chairman-many-hoped-for.html

HOUSING STARTS (Hardware Retailing)
“The May reading from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau noted 1.18 million starts…single-family starts decreased 1.9% to an 882,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate and are down 6.7% compared to May 2025. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 40.2% to an annualized 295,000 pace and are down 14.2% compared to May 2025.” Story at…
https://hardwareretailing.com/housing-starts-drop-in-may/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 1.2% to 7420.
-VIX rose about 12% to 18.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.487% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

It's pretty clear that the issues in the market started shortly after today’s Fed meeting concluded at 2pm. The Fed stance under the new chairman Warsh may have surprised traders (and the Wall Street computers) leading to a 100 pt. loss on the S&P 500 after the Fed announcement. If this weakness does turn into something more concerning, there is strong support at the 50-dMA. The Index is only 1.6% above the 50-dMA. I suspect the 50-day will hold if the Index falls that far. I don’t think we have to worry about it yet, but the Index is 7.6% above the 200-dMA

Futures are up as I write this and I suspect that today’s action was a kneejerk reaction to the Fed news; I expect markets will move higher Thursday. (Of course, I have been saying that for a few days.)

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +3 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

I’ve been saying this for a while: I’d like to see the 10-dMA of the Indicator Spread turn higher – that would be a good bullish sign, but it is a slow signal. The improvement in daily numbers has been encouraging even though the bounce has stalled.

Breadth still looks good. Over the last 10-days, more issues have gone up on the NYSE than have gone down, but some breadth indicators are warning: the McClellan Oscillator has turned bearish and that reactivates the Hindenburg Omen.

BOTTOM LINE
I have to be neutral now, but I am still expecting indicators to turn bullish soon.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Housing Starts … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +5 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

I’d like to see the 10-dMA of the Indicator Spread turn higher – that would be a good bullish sign, but it is a slow signal. The improvement in daily numbers has been encouraging even though the bounce stalled today.

After the big move higher Monday, a down-day Tuesday is not a surprise.

Breadth still looks good. Over the last 10-days, more issues have gone up on the NYSE than have gone down.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish and expecting indicators to turn bullish soon.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, June 15, 2026

Industrial Production … NY Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Forex Factory)
“The industrial production in the United States increased by 0.1% in May compared to April, according to the latest report by the Federal Reserve Board on Monday. On a yearly basis, the industrial output improved by 1.7%.” Story at…
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1403676-us-industrial-production-up-01-in-may

NY FED MANUFACTURING (Rtt News)
“After posting strong growth last month, New York manufacturing activity increased modestly in the month of June, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3660298/new-york-manufacturing-index-pulls-back-sharply-in-june-but-still-indicates-growth.aspx

NAHB HOUSING INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)
“Builder confidence edged lower in June as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from May to 35 this month, marking the 26th consecutive negative reading. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 36.” Commentary and Analysis at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/06/15/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-june-2026

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.7% to 7554.
-VIX declined about 8% to 16.20.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.473% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +1 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations declined, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers. I’d like to see the 10-dMA of the Indicator Spread turn higher – that would be a good bullish sign, but it is a slow signal. The improvement in daily numbers is encouraging.

Breadth improved again. Over the last 10-days, more issues have gone up on the NYSE than have gone down.

Internals continue to improve as do indicators. News was good with the Iran conflict ending.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish and expecting indicators to turn bullish soon.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, June 12, 2026

Consumer Confidence … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TRUMP HAS A PLAN TO “EXPUNGE” IMPEACHMENTS (WSJ)

“President Trump and his allies have discussed pushing lawmakers to pass a resolution aimed at voiding his first-term impeachments, according to people familiar with the matter…“It should be done because I did nothing wrong,” Trump said when asked about the resolution in a phone call this week with The Wall Street Journal. “It was a rigged deal—it was a whole rigged situation.”…
… “It’s an absurd idea,” [expunging the impeachment] said Michael Gerhardt, a law professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “It’s in the history books…” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-and-allies-are-working-on-plan-to-expunge-impeachments-49ee2874
MY cmt: Trump says, “I DID NOTHING WRONG”?? So, his efforts to steal the 2020 election by attempting to place false electoral college representatives in the election certification process were nothing? Trump bullied Mike Pence not to certify the 2020 election to illegally throw the election into the House of Representatives where the Republicans (if they all went along) could install Trump as President even though he lost the election – that was nothing??!! The Jan 6^th riots were designed to break up the election certification since Pence had ignored Trump’s threats and followed the Constitution. There were phone calls between the Proud Boys and the White House before and during the riots. Although we don’t know the content of those calls, it is circumstantial evidence that Trump and his cronies were involved in a last-ditch effort to break up the election certification - that was nothing??!!

Trump wrote a letter to the WSJ claiming the Pennsylvania election was stolen. Here’s my response published by the WSJ in 2021.”
Readers to President Trump: Knock It Off
His claims of election fraud aren’t true and undermine our democracy.
Oct. 29, 2021 3:28 pm ET

A billboard about the 2020 election in Times Square in New York.
PHOTO: EDUARDO MUNOZ/REUTERS

"Regarding “President Trump Responds on Pennsylvania” (Letters, Oct. 28): In 2020, former President Trump lost Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania—all states he won in 2016. To have won in 2020, Mr. Trump needed three of those states including Pennsylvania or four of them without Pennsylvania. Adding Pennsylvania alone wouldn’t have changed the result.

In Wisconsin, as the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported, “Recounts that Trump sought in Milwaukee and Dane counties yielded additional votes for Biden, slightly widening his margin. Trump and his allies turned to the courts, which issued eight rulings against them over 12 days in December. Among those ruling against Trump’s side were the U.S. Supreme Court, the state Supreme Court and a federal judge appointed by Trump.”

In Arizona, your editorial “Trump Loses Arizona—Again” (Sept. 27) presents the facts: “The GOP state Senate launched an ‘audit’ by hiring Cyber Ninjas. . . . A hand recount of Maricopa County’s 2.1 million ballots says that Mr. Biden won the state by 10,817 votes”—a few hundred more than in the original count.

In Georgia, the Associated Press reports that “a recount requested by President Donald Trump confirmed once again that Democrat Joe Biden won the state, and the [Republican] governor then recertified the state’s 16 presidential electors. ‘We have now counted legally cast ballots three times, and the results remain unchanged,’ Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said.”

In Michigan, take it from the official Republican-led state Senate report on the election: “This Committee found no evidence of widespread or systematic fraud in Michigan’s prosecution of the 2020 election.”

Finally, in Pennsylvania, “Multiple official audits and court proceedings have uncovered no proof of widespread fraud in Pennsylvania, a state Joe Biden won by more than 80,000 votes,” reports Slate. Pennsylvania is the one state where there were legitimate questions: Election officials allowed certain votes to be counted that did not meet Pennsylvania state law. The case was sent to the U.S. Supreme Court, which refused to hear it and the number of votes in question would not have altered the state’s outcome.

What Mr. Trump fails to understand is that his claims of election fraud undermine our democracy, are seditious and have turned off thinking Republicans and independent voters. I will never vote for him again. Even if he manages to get nominated in 2024, he can’t win a general election." - published by WSJ, 29 Oct 2021.

MY POST SCRIPT: I wrote in 2021, “…he [Trump] can’t win a general election.” Wow! Talk about wrong! How was I to know the Democrats would run an incompetent, far-left ticket in 2024? Senator Joe Manchin (WVA) would have wiped the floor with Trump, but oh, wait, I forgot; the Democrats forced him to resign from their party because he was too moderate.

CATHIE WOODS SAYS MARKET MISREAD JOBS REPORT (The Street)
“Wood's argument starts with a number most traders skipped past. Productivity growth is running near 3%, she said, while unit labor costs are hovering around 0.5%, in a post on X. Those are not the readings of an inflationary boom. They are the readings you get when output per worker is climbing faster than the cost of that worker...If companies are producing more for every dollar they pay in labor, faster hiring does not have to feed faster inflation. It can feed cheaper goods.” Story at…
Cathie Wood says the market just misread the jobs report

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (US News)
“Consumer sentiment rose in June as gasoline prices showed a small dip, the University of Michigan said on Friday.
The university’s consumer sentiment index rose 4 points, or 9%, from May to 48.9. That still leaves the mood of consumers 13% lower than it was in January and 19% below where it was a year ago.” Story at…
https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2026-06-12/a-dip-in-gas-prices-boosts-consumer-moods-in-june

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 7431.
-VIX declined about 9% to 17.68.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.483% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -7 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations declined, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers. I’d like to see the 10-dMA of the Indicator Spread turn higher – that would be a good bullish sign, but it is a slow signal. The improvement in daily numbers is encouraging.

Breadth improved. Over the last 10-days, more issues have gone up on the NYSE than have gone down.

The indicator that compares breadth to the S&P 500 is still bearish; the Index is too far ahead of breadth.

Internals continue to improve as do indicators.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral in the short-term, but my guess is that the correction has been cancelled.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, June 11, 2026

PPI … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

“It was Thomas Edison who brought us electricity, not the Sierra Club. It was the Wright brothers who got us off the ground, not the Federal Aviation Administration. It was Henry Ford who ended the isolation of millions of Americans by making the automobile affordable, not Ralph Nader. Those who have helped the poor the most have not been those who have gone around loudly expressing 'compassion' for the poor, but those who found ways to make industry more productive and distribution more efficient, so that the poor of today can afford things that the affluent of yesterday could only dream about.”
― Thomas Sowell

PPI (CNBC)
“The producer price index, a measure of final demand costs, increased a seasonally adjusted 1.1% on the month, putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at 6.5%.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/producer-price-index-may-2026-.html

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment aid for the week ending June 6 rose by 4,000 to 229,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That’s the most since early February, before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, but still considered a healthy level.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-a529f2c33e5048e79ffca8a07247a192

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.8% to 7394.
-VIX declined about 13% to 19.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.459% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -15 to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations declined, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers. I’d like to see the 10-dMA of the Indicator Spread turn higher – that would be a good bullish sign.

Breadth still remains weak. Over the last 10-days, more issues have gone down on the NYSE than have gone up. In addition, I have an indicator that compares breadth to the S&P 500; the Index is too far ahead of breadth so, it too is still bearish.

Thursday, the S&P 500 pulled within 2.8% of last week’s all-time high and is now 2.3% above its 50-dMA.

There were some improvements in internals when we look at the low yesterday compared to the prior low on Friday, 5 June. That can mark a bottom, but the improvements were not enough to signal a buy for me. The catch is that small declines give small signals so we may have made a technical bottom yesterday. Still, I suspect today’s move was Trump-driven since the bounce occurred after he announced a postponement of the bombing planned for Thursday night.

As I noted yesterday, since I think we are close to an end of this decline, I’ll probably wind up holding trading positions a bit longer. I can always sell the positions; take the tax-loss and replace them with other issues that may produce similar gains when indicators improve.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish/neutral in the short-term, but I suspect we are closer to a bottom than the top. We’ll see.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)