Wednesday, February 25, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
Political Cartoons From Dick Wright
Dick Wright has been an award-winning editorial cartoonist for decades, drawing for the San Diego Union, the Providence Journal, Scripps-Howard Newspapers and the Columbus Dispatch.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
AMERICAS BILLS WILL COME DUE (WSJ)
“The first law of holes: When you’re in one, stop digging. The Trump administration didn’t get this memo. Despite America’s large and deepening budget deficit, President Trump has endorsed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s request for a $500 billion increase in annual appropriations for the 2027 military budget. Administration officials are reportedly at odds about how to spend this money… the path to fiscal responsibility must begin now, in the 2027 budget… They shouldn’t enact spending for defense—or any other item—that raises the budget deficit above the baseline. Nor should they enact new tax cuts that raise the deficit. This is what it means to stop digging.” William A Galston, WSJ Opinion writer, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. Opinion at,,,
 
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6946.
-VIX declined about 8% to 17.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.058% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -8 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Indicators have been flopping back and forth recently so they aren’t helping too much.
 
The S&P 500 is only 0.5% below its all-time high. It has now bounced above its 50-dMA. That’s a positive sign, but the Bearish Ascending Wedge remains so there is still a concern that the markets could slip into correction.
 
If they do, levels of support are 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 1.7% above the 100-dMA and 6.1% above the 200-dMA.
 
For now, all we can do is watch the chart; markets are not out of the woods yet.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am remaining a nervous neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Consumer Confidence … Richmond Fed … Dallas Fed … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
THE END OF START-STOP (BamaCooley)
“You know the feeling. Foot on the brake, engine dies, the whole car shudders like it forgot how to be a car. Then the light turns green, and there's that half-second lurch where nothing happens, and the guy behind you lays on his horn … On February 12, 2026, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin walked into the White House Roosevelt Room and called it what millions already had. Zeldin didn't mince words: "Not only do many people find start-stop annoying, but it kills the battery of your car without any significant benefit to the environment. The Trump EPA is proudly fixing this stupid feature at Trump Speed." Story at…
 
RICHMOND FED (Advisor Perspectives)
“Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed somewhat in February according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index dropped 4 points to -10, remaining in negative territory for a twelfth straight month.” Commentary at…
 
DALLAS FED (Dallas Fed)
“Texas service sector activity grew slightly in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, ticked down four points but remained in positive territory at 4.1.” Report at…
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (PR Newswire)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased by 2.2 points in February to 91.2 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January…’Confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers' pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,’ said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. ‘Four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).’" Press release at…
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6890.
-VIX declined about 7% to 19.55.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.037% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign. (Yesterday’s spread was -8. The Hindenburg Omen remains for 30-days except when the McClellan Oscillator is positive.)
 
I was surprised to see that the indicators hadn’t changed much today even though the S&P 500 closed well in the green. As it is, Indicators remain bearish. I should be bearish, but there doesn’t seem to be much fear so I am nervously neutral.
 
The S&P 500 is only 1.3% below its all-time high. It also remains slightly below its 50-dMA.
 
Levels of support are 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.9% above the 100-dMA and 5.3% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am remaining a nervous neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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Monday, February 23, 2026

Factory Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
THE TRUTH ABOUT TARIFFS (WSJ)
“The White House this week opened a new front in its war on the Federal Reserve: a fight about Fed research on the consequences of President Trump’s tariffs. If the tariffs are such an unambiguous economic and political winner, why is the Administration so defensive about them?
The flap concerns the analysis we told you about last week by four economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. They found that American households and businesses are bearing nearly 90% of the cost of the Trump tariffs, contrary to Mr. Trump’s claim that foreigners will pay…
… If your tariff policy is so unpopular that you have to bully the central bank into not talking about it, maybe it’s time for a new policy.” – Opinion at…
 
HIGH BEEF PRICES SET TO LAST (WSJ)
“The Trump administration views easing beef prices as a top priority, enlisting top advisers to find solutions in policy meetings. This month, President Trump signed an executive order to quadruple beef imports from Argentina, though the volume is small, and to drop some tariffs on imports of Brazilian beef.” Story at…
My cmt: Trump claims tariffs don’t raise prices, but at the same time his administration is lowering tariffs on beef to reduce beef prices. Can’t have it both ways Donald. The liar-in-Chief strikes again.
 
FACTORY ORDERS (RTTNews)
“New orders for U.S. manufactured goods pulled back in line with expectations in the month of December, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Monday…factory orders slid by 0.7 percent in December after surging by 2.7 percent in November.” Story at…
 
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 1% to 6838.
-VIX rose about 10% to 21.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.046% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Optimism about improved indicators vanished today.
 
Some new bear indicators:
-A return of the Fosback high-low logic index bearish signal.
-A new Bearish outside reversal.
-Bearish McClellan Oscillator.
-An S&P 500 drop below its 50-dMA
 
There was a new Hindenburg Omen today around mid-day. At closing, conditions improved enough to avoid the Omen, but the Fosback high-low logic index uses a similar methodology and it gave a bearish signal. The concern is that both new-highs and new-lows are elevated. That is showing an unhealthy market.
 
On Friday, PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was higher and GDP was an anemic 1.4%, nearly half the expected value. I wrote Friday that when the market goes up on bad news it’s a good sign, but I was not convinced. Today’s decline wasn’t much of a surprise. Recently, these small pullbacks have ended around the 100-dMA. We’re close enough that this decline could end now. I say, “Could.” Again, I am not convinced. The recent low was around 6800. I wouldn't be surprised to see markets get there again.
 
Levels of support are 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.2% above the 100-dMA and 4.6% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am remaining a nervous neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Friday, February 20, 2026

Supreme Court Rules Against Tariffs … GDP … PCE Prices … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
DEMOCRATS MAY HAVE ALREADY LOST 2028 PRESIDENTIAL RACE (WSJ)
“Every Democrat preparing to run has weaknesses. At this writing, only two potential candidates have double-digit support in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Both are vulnerable. Former Vice President Kamala Harris leads with 31%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 22%. From there, the drop-off is steep. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is in third place with 9%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is close on Mr. Buttigieg’s heels. The only other Democrat to earn more than 5% in national polls is Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro…
…Only 8% of Democrats call themselves conservative, according to Gallup. Fifty-nine percent consider themselves liberal or very liberal. A CNN poll last summer found that one-third of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents think of themselves as democratic socialists like Ms. Ocasio-Cortez. That share is 42% among those under 35.” Opinion at…
My cmt: The Democrats gave us Trump because they couldn’t nominate a viable candidate. If they had run Joe Manchin, Trump would have been a two-time loser. But Manchin was a moderate so they forced him out of the party. Howard Schultz, founder of Starbucks, explored running as a Democrat years ago, but the Dems didn’t want a moderate then either. If they run Kamala again, or another far left candidate, Newsome or Ocasio-Cortez, one can only pray that the Republicans run a sound candidate such as Nikki Haley.  We don’t need a boot-licking MAGA nut-job as a future president. An improved race? Spanberger (D) vs. Glenn Youngkin (R), both Governors of Virginia, present and past.
 
SUPREME COURT RULES AGAINST TARIFFS (CNBC)
“Stocks gained on Friday after the Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump’s tariffs, potentially providing relief for companies burdened by higher costs from the duties and easing concern about sticky inflation still plaguing the U.S. economy…Economists expect the White House to reapply many of the same tariffs using other means.” Story at…
 
TRUMP’’S NEW TARIFFS (CNBC – 1:41PM)
“President Donald Trump said he will sign an executive order imposing a new 10% “global tariff” under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.” Story at…
An AI google search said this about Section 122…
“Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (19 U.S.C. § 2132) authorizes the U.S. President to impose temporary import surcharges of up to 15% or import quotas to address "large and serious" balance-of-payments deficits. These measures are temporary, expiring after 150 days unless extended by Congress.”
 
FINANCIAL CRISIS RED FLAGS (Markets Insider)
“In a LinkedIn post on Thursday, the former PIMCO CEO [Mohamed El-Erian] flagged a Financial Times report that said private credit giant Blue Owl Capital is permanently halting withdrawals in its Capital Corporation II fund, a private debt fund that's open to retail investors.
That move could be seen as a parallel to what happened in the months leading up to the last financial crisis, El-Erian said. In August 2007, BNP Paribas froze three of its funds due to a decline in liquidity in the securitization market, which made it impossible to "value certain assets fairly," it said at the time.
Nearly two decades after the Great Financial Crisis, BNP Paribas's move is regarded by some as the start of the downturn that led to the collapse of Lehman Brothers the following year.” Story at…
 
GDP (CNBC)
“U.S. growth slowed more than expected near the end of 2025 as the government shutdown impacted spending and investment, while a key inflation metric showed high prices are still a factor for the economy, according to data released Friday.
Gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4%...” Story at…
 
PCE PRICES (Fox Business)
“The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge remained elevated in December as price pressures continued to pose a challenge for consumers. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.4% in December on a monthly basis and is up 2.9% from a year ago.” Story at… 
My cmt: Both worse than expected.
 
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 6862
-VIX declined about 6% to 19.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.086% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 11
 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
It was nice to see the 10-day, indicator-spread turn higher.  I’ll be watching that trend. It may suggest an end to the weakness,
 
PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was higher; GDP was an anemic 1.4%, nearly half the expected value; … and the stock market closed higher? Interesting. Investors apparently put a high value on the possibility that tariffs will end. It is not at all clear that tariffs will end; there are other tariff authorities in the law, but Trump may need help from Congress.  In the end, when the market goes up on bad news it’s a good sign, but I am not convinced, yet. Let’s see if markets are still ignoring the GDP/Inflation news on Monday.
 
The waiting game continues. Since the end of October, the S&P 500 has gone nowhere – it’s down about 0.5%. It did break back above the 50-dMA today; it is now 0.2% above the 50-day.
 
Levels of support are the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 1.3% above the 100-dMA and 5.8% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am upgrading to neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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Thursday, February 19, 2026

Jobless Claims … Philly Fed … Leading Economic Indicators … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

May be an image of the Brandenburg Gate and text that says 'THE LONDON NDON ECONOMIC MAKS 25 MAC STORMY SONY Trump gets brutally mocked on Presidents' Day by floats at German festival Getty images'
WHAT DOES THE WORLD THINK OF TRUMP? IS THIS REAL?! - FACT-CHECK FROM SNOPES  
“The images of the satirical Trump and Statue of Liberty float, as well as other floats mocking Trump, were authentic photos depicting scenes from real German parades. While the parades were held on America's Presidents Day, the German parades are annual traditions dating back to before that holiday existed. Photos of the float with Trump and the Statue of Liberty were available from Getty Images, Alamy and Reuters. All three photo agencies said the float was from a Rose Monday parade in Mainz.
The city of Mainz describes Rose Monday as the highlight of carnival season, which it called its folk festival with "fantastic days and nights of revelry." Carnival starts annually on Nov. 11 and ends on Ash Wednesday. Each year, the city hosts a parade on Rose Monday, the final Monday before Ash Wednesday.” Truth analysis from Snopes at…
“Snopes is the internet’s oldest and largest independent fact-checking organization, founded in 1994 by David Mikkelson to debunk urban legends, folklore, and, increasingly, political misinformation, fake news, and hoaxes.”
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (KSL.com)
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell last week as layoffs remain at historically low levels. The number of Americans filing for jobless aid for the week ending Feb. 14 fell by 23,000 to 206,000 from the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.” Story at… 
 
PHILADELPHIA FED (Investing.com)
“The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, a crucial gauge of general business conditions in Philadelphia, has posted stronger-than-expected numbers, suggesting an improving economic outlook and a potentially stronger U.S. dollar. The actual figure stood at 16.3, significantly higher than the forecasted 7.5.” Story at…
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board via PR NewsWire)
"The US LEI registered its fifth consecutive monthly decline in December, indicating continued softness in the economy in early 2026," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Alongside a rise in building permits, positive contributions to the LEI in December were led by the index's financial components, with the yield spread notably turning positive in both November and December. However, persistently weak consumer expectations indicators and the ISM® New Orders Index made the largest negative contributions to the LEI in December.” Press release at… 
 
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6862
-VIX rose about 3% to 20.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.065% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The waiting game continues. Since the end of October the S&P 500 has gone nowhere – it’s down about 0.5%.
 
Levels of support are the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.4% above the 100-dMA and 5.1% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Bearish for the short term.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

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