“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
IBM’s WORST DAY EVER (Fortune)
“That juxtaposition—banks minting money while IBM
suffered a 115-year collapse on a 3.7% revenue miss—is the puzzle at the center
of what Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins, thinks
markets are getting dangerously wrong about the AI boom. For two years,
investors have been debating whether AI stocks are too expensive. Hanke said
that’s true, but it’s the wrong question. “We really have two bubbles in
markets,” he told me. One is a classic valuation bubble of price versus
earnings, as exemplified by the famous CAPE Shiller index. But the more dangerous mispricing,
he argued, isn’t in valuations at all. It’s in the earnings themselves…
…IBM’s crash may be the first visible crack not in
valuations but in the earnings story underneath them: a company whose numbers
weren’t that bad still got punished as if the market suddenly stopped believing
the profit growth narrative altogether. Whether that’s a single-stock anomaly
or a signal that the market has quietly repriced its tolerance for earnings
disappointment across the sector is the question the rest of earnings season
will start to answer.
For now, the more dangerous question may have been hiding
in plain sight the entire time—not whether AI stocks are too expensive, but
whether the earnings behind them were ever as real as they looked.” Story at…
Why
IBM just suffered its worst stock crash of all time—and what it says about the
market’s two bubbles
JOBLESS CLAIMS (The Valley Sun)
“New U.S. unemployment claims fell by 8,000 to a
seasonally adjusted 208,000 for the week ending July 11, coming in lower than
economists’ forecasts of 217,000.” Story at…
https://sjvsun.com/u-s/jobless-claims-drop-indicating-continued-labor-market-strength/
PHILLY FED BUSINESS INDEX (RTT News)
“…regional manufacturing activity soared by much more
than expected in the month of July. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for
current general activity skyrocketed to 41.4 in July from 10.3 in June, with a
positive reading indicating growth. Economists had expected the index to rise
to 13.0.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3667688/philly-fed-index-soars-to-nearly-five-year-high-in-july.aspx
RETAIL SALES (CNN)
“Spending at US retailers last month was weaker than
expected, despite the
World Cup drawing tourists from around the world and online sales
events. Retail sales rose 0.2% in June from the prior month…” Story at…
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/16/economy/us-retail-sales-june
My cmt: I asked Google AI about year-over-year retail
sales gain. The response was: “US retail and food services sales in June rose
to $768.6 billion—a 6.7% increase year-over-year.” Can’t complain about that
number.
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7534.
-VIX rose about 7% to 15.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.557%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its
best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a
rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward
P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of
accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This
pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's
AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation
rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price
action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its
thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price
appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia
stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the
stock is headed next
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from +8 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher, a BULLISH sign.
3 times as many bull signs as bear signs today – what’s
not to like? - price action was weak in the indices.
Advancers outpaced
decliners; advancing volume was slightly higher than declining volume and new-highs
far out numbered new-lows. Good
internals usually are good for the S&P 500 so we should see an up-day
tomorrow. Unfortunately, futures are down as I write this Thursday evening.
So far Breadth remains in bullish territory and
indicators continue to improve. Will price follow? It usually does, as shown in
the Summary of 50-Indicator Spread above.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in
the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
88% of TRADERS BET ON A MARKET PLUNGE (Investors Business
Daily)
“…it turns out many bettors in prediction market Kalshi are pretty bearish about the stock market.
Nearly 90% of the wagers on "How low will the S&P 500 get this
year" are calling for a plunge of at least 16%. And nearly 13% are betting
on a crash of more than 21%...Investors learn time and time again that
eventually, reality catches up with markets. Already, shares of newly
public Space Exploration, Elon Musk's massive bet on an interstellar AI
empire are coming back to earth. Shares of Microsoft, too,
one of the earliest players in AI with its investment in OpenAI, are down
nearly 20% this year. Yes, AI is amazing. And there are other positive events
driving the S&P 500. But gamblers think it's time to take some chips off
the table.” Story at…
Traders
bet there's an 88% chance the S&P 500 will plunge soon
PPI (CNBC)
"The produce
price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.3% decline for the month…On
an annual basis, the index indicated a 5.5% inflation rate…Excluding food and
energy, the core PPI rose 0.2%...” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/wholesale-inflation-june-2026-.html
NY FED MANUFACTURING (RTT News)
"A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
on Wednesday showed regional manufacturing activity has picked up considerably
in the month of July. The New York Fed said its general business conditions index
jumped to 15.6 in July from 5.7 in June, with a positive reading indicating
growth.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3667274/new-york-manufacturing-activity-picks-up-considerably-in-july.aspx
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7572.
-VIX declined about 5% to 15.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.551%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its
best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a
rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward
P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of
accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This
pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's
AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation
rerates higher.,, Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price
action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its
thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price
appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia
stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the
stock is headed next
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +2 to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher, a BULLISH sign.
Looks like the markets aren’t too worried about renewed
hostilities with Iran. Inflation news was good again today and that helped.
So far Breadth remains in bullish territory and
indicators have improved.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish again.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in
the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
“Did a walk around of the Reflecting Pool today [it was
drained], and as others have also noted, there is no sign of a “350 foot” gash,
let alone any gashes at all. A worker even told me that he did not see anything
of the sort, either.” – Matt Rein on “X”.
“What appear to be tire tracks have become visible on the
floor of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool after the landmark
was drained for a second round of repairs, adding another point of intrigue to
the Trump administration’s troubled renovation project.” – Newsweek. Story at…
Can
tire tracks be seen on bottom of Lincoln Reflecting Pool?
Mt cmt: We already know from Snopes’ fact-checking site
that Trump “inspected” the work from a vehicle while it drove thru the pool
during the rehab.
“Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle celebrated the landmark bipartisan housing bill becoming law
overnight Saturday despite President Donald Trump's refusal to sign it.” From…
https://abcnews.com/Politics/senators-celebrate-bipartisan-housing-bill-becoming-law-despite/story?id=134676815
"Bipartisan' usually means that a larger-than-usual
deception is being carried out." - George Carlin
OIL MARKET ISN’T READY FOR AN END TO CEASEFIRE (WSJ)
“Commercial inventories in the U.S. rose 3 million barrels in the week ended Friday,
according to the Energy Department, the first uptick after 10 consecutive weeks
of drawdowns.
Stockpiles are still so low that the central U.S. storage
hub in Cushing, Okla., has reached operational limits that would make
withdrawing more crude challenging. Meanwhile, inventories in the
government-run Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a system of salt caverns on the
Gulf Coast, keep falling and sit at the lowest level since 1983.” Story
at…
https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/the-global-oil-market-isnt-ready-for-the-iran-ceasefire-to-end-3a4a7ec5
4 TECHNICAL SIGNALS ARE A ROAD MAP FOR STOCKS THRU THE
REST OF 2026 (Markets Insider)
"Models are mixed, suggesting further consolidation
or corrections heading into the seasonally weak third
quarter,"
Here are the signals Clissold said he was watching in
markets:
1. Historical and seasonal patterns
Signal: Bearish…
2. Portfolio allocation indicators
Signal: Bullish…
3. Momentum, breadth, sentiment, and monetary signals
Signal: Bearish…
4. Market breadth
Signal: Mixed…
"…over seven in 10 sub-industries are trending
higher suggests that any seasonal weakness should be viewed within the context
of an ongoing cyclical bull market," Clissold wrote.” Story at…
4
technical signals lay out the road map for stocks through the rest of 2026
PETER SCHIFF ISSUES STARK WARNING (Moneywise)
“Even if everything was good, the U.S. market is
expensive,” Schiff said. “But it’s not — it’s a ticking time bomb.” … “The
markets, I think, are really looking past a lot of problems and pricing stocks
based on hope and not reality,” … the fragility is not limited to the stock
market. He said the U.S. economy is “in a lot of trouble” and argued that
America is on the verge of “not just a financial crisis, but a U.S. dollar and
sovereign debt crisis.” … Schiff was asked to choose between a “resilient
economy” and “recession delayed.” His answer: “Recession, maybe depression.”
'Ticking
time bomb': Peter Schiff issues stark warning over US stock market — and the
'ultimate crash' is near. Protect your wealth now
CPI (CNBC)
“The CPI fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month,
bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.5%.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/consumer-price-index-inflation-report-june-2026.html
My cmt: At 3.5% inflation, prices double every 21 years.
The Fed’s target 2% rate would double prices every 36 Years.
NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The NFIB Small
Business Optimism Index rose 2.1 points in June to 97.4,
nearing its 52-year average of 98.0. Expectations for better business
conditions and real sales expectations improved substantially and primarily
drove the rise in the Index.” Press release at…
https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-picks-up-in-june/
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7544.
-VIX declined about 4% to 16.5.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.587%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its
best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a
rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward
P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of
accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This
pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's
AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation
rerates higher.,, Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price
action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its
thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price
appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia
stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the
stock is headed next
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +4 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher, a BULLISH sign.
Inflation down; Business optimism up; good news today
even though inflation is stubbornly high. Markets don’t seem worried about the
Iran conflict heating up.
So far Breadth remains in bullish territory, but we are not
as optimistic as last week.
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in
the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“A conservative Tehran newspaper has published an
infographic naming President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu, and 11 other Western leaders as targets for revenge over the killing
of former supreme leader…” Story at…Iran
paper names Trump, 12 others as targets for revenge
My cmt: Seems unlikely that Trump will be able to make a
“deal” with Iran’s leadership.
US TO BLOCKADE IRANIAN PORTS (CNN)
“The US military will officially resume its naval
blockade of ships going to and from Iranian ports on Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET, US
Central Command said Monday.” Story at…
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/13/world/live-news/iran-war-trump
My cmt: Surprised it took so long to reset the blockade.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
SELFIE GENERATION – BABY BOOMERS MISTAKE (WSJ – Excerpt)
“My generation—the baby boomers—made a catastrophic
mistake. We watched our parents sacrifice, we struggled to move up, and we
vowed our children would have it easier. When that time came, we gave them
trophies for showing up. We meant well. But in freeing them of the need to
struggle, we deprived them of something essential. We raised a generation
insulated from failure, from consequence, from the experience of working for
something, failing and trying again.
The result is visible in major American cities, where
young voters are electing socialist candidates who spew hatred of those who
achieve greatness. These movements aren’t about creating opportunity. They’re
about grievance, redistribution and the conviction that your own failures are
the result of someone else’s success. It is a politics of envy dressed up as
justice.
The hallmark of today’s young generation is the selfie. A
photo of yourself, taken and posted for the approval of others. That says
everything. And when the world doesn’t deliver the validation young people have
been told they deserve simply for existing, the explanation is always the same:
The system is rigged, the deck is stacked, someone else has too much…
… We have abandoned the uniquely American
idea that you must earn what you get. We need to restore that belief, before
the generation we indulged forgets it forever.” - Scott W. Atlas, Senior Fellow
at Stanford’s Hoover Institution and special adviser to the president and a
member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force (2020). Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-selfie-generation-is-the-baby-boomers-mistake-4b75d1d1
BERNIE SANDERS LATEST BAD IDEA – SOCIALISM AT WORK (USA
Today)
“On June 18, Sanders introduced legislation in the Senate that would
confiscate 50% of the ownership of America’s most successful artificial
intelligence companies. By Sanders’ own estimate, his bill would strip $7 trillion out of
the private sector through a 50% tax on AI companies’ stocks. The confiscated
stocks would be deposited in a government-owned and managed fund, with plans to
eventually redistribute a portion of the wealth through $1,000 payments to
“everyone in America.” … The damage that Sanders’ proposal would do to the
stock markets, Americans’ retirement accounts and the overall economy is
mind-boggling.” Story at…
Bernie
Sanders' latest horrible idea may wreck your 401(k) | Opinion
STEVE FORBES INTERVIEW - EXCERPT (Fox News)
"First of all, New York City has had a reputation in
the past of electing radical candidates, including the allegedly only communist
member of Congress back in the late 1940s. So there is that streak there. But
more importantly, I think it shows that people, a lot of people, are
dissatisfied…
…it's not enough to say, ‘Well, free enterprise gives you
more prosperity.’ You also have to put on the plane that free enterprise is
moral. It's based on liberty, based on allowing human beings to be creative, or
as Lincoln put it, improve your lot in life."
… "Whatever you call it,
communism, socialism, extreme leftism, anti-Semitism, it's all the same
disease," Forbes said. "Abraham Lincoln put it very well in the
1800s. He said, 'It won't be foreign forces that destroy the United States.
It'll be things we do internally.'" Forbes suggested that many incorrectly
blame problems on free markets, when they should instead be blaming government
policies:
"What happens is when governments start making
mistakes and doing things that people don't like and that hurt people's
prospects for getting ahead, upsetting society, they blame it on capitalism.
They blame it on free markets," he said. "So they help wreck free
markets and then say, 'The victim is the cause of it.'"
Prosperity and innovation can only flourish with freedom,
Forbes said. While capitalism isn't perfect, it has led to inventions that
improve our lives…” Story at…
Steve
Forbes backs Trump's Mt. Rushmore warning on communism: 'He's right'
“It was Thomas Edison who brought us electricity, not the
Sierra Club. It was the Wright brothers who got us off the ground, not the Federal
Aviation Administration. It was Henry Ford who ended the isolation of millions
of Americans by making the automobile affordable, not Ralph Nader. Those who
have helped the poor the most have not been those who have gone around loudly
expressing 'compassion' for the poor, but those who found ways to make industry
more productive and distribution more efficient, so that the poor of today can
afford things that the affluent of yesterday could only dream about.” - Thomas Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover
Institution.
“What the welfare system and other kinds of governmental
programs are doing is paying people to fail. Insofar as they fail, they receive
the money; insofar as they succeed, even to a moderate extent, the money is
taken away.” - Thomas Sowell, senior
fellow at the Hoover Institution.
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 7515.
-VIX rose about 14% to 15.03.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.626% (compared
to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its
best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a
rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward
P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of
accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This
pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's
AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the
valuation rerates higher.,, Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's
recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental
deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful
share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool
at…
Nvidia
stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the
stock is headed next
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from
+9 to +4 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I
consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on
the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH
sign.
It looks like the Iran news may drive again the stock
market train. The fear is that oil
prices and/or shortages may do harm to the economy. I don’t have an opinion, so
I’ll watch indicators and price action in the stock market.
So far Breadth remains in bullish territory, but we have
to be less optimistic.
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in
the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
2026 ISN’T 1999 (Moneywise)
"We keep hearing this drumbeat that 2026 is 1999 all
over again," Cramer said Monday on CNBC's "Mad Money." (1)
"But the difference between now and 1999 is that this market does not stop
punishing the companies that disappointed … You are unsafe at any level."
The warning comes even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
continue hitting record highs, powered largely by enthusiasm around AI,
semiconductor companies and data center spending. But beneath those headline
gains, many well-known companies outside the AI trade have struggled badly…As
Cramer put it, today's market has created "some hated stocks and some
loved stocks." Right now, he argued, "the hated are over hated and
the loved are over loved." Story at…
'You
are unsafe at any level': Jim Cramer says 2026 isn't 1999 — it's worse. Here's
why he argues the market's so much more 'punishing' now
HERITAGE CAPITAL BLOG EXCERPT – DON’T LET LONG TERM
WARNINGS CLOUD THE NEXT FEW QUARTERS (Heritage Capital)
“… At some point in the next six years, I forecast a
stock market decline exceeding 30% that lasts 12-24 months. I don’t see the set
up nor the culprit. I just know that we have not seen a decline like that since
2007-2009 and the markets and economy will be due. Recession will likely
accompany that bear market, but one does not have to.
I saw this chart on Twitter today. Cash allocations are
at historically low levels. That is one ingredient for a bear market. However,
this condition can last years before it matters. Margin debt has soared. That’s
another ingredient of a bear market. Guess what? That can last years as well.
There are other indicators to go along with these like Robert Shiller’s CAPE
ratio and Warren Buffet’s total stock market value to GDP. Eventually, they
will matter, but they are absolutely terrible timing tools.
The bull market remains old but alive and reasonably
healthy. There is a scenario for a 6-11% correction this quarter. A July peak
and an August or September bottom. All-time highs in Q4.” Paul Schatz,
President Heritage Capital. From…
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/dont-let-long-term-warnings-cloud-the-next-few-quarters/
FED MINUTES (CNBC)
“In Kevin Warsh’s
first meeting June 16-17 as chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee,
participants saw outcomes where inflation could ease and allow lower rates,
while others envisioned a scenario where price increases stay elevated and lead
to hikes. During his post-meeting news conference, Warsh billed the
debate as a “family fight” that ended with the committee
unanimously voting to
keep the Fed’s benchmark funds rate anchored in a range between 3.5%-3.75%,
where it has been for all of 2026.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/fed-minutes-june-2026-.html
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7575.
-VIX declined about 5% to 15.03.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.561%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its
best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred
with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid
consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating
revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is
consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven
growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates
higher.,, Patient investors who recognize that
Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a
fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from
meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” –
Motley Fool at…
Nvidia
stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the
stock is headed next
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
No change here: at the close
today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The
rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many
of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +9
(9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider
+5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart
above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign that
smooths daily fluctuations.
The 10-dMA of the indicator spread continues sharply
higher. Good news.
Volume was about 30% below the monthly average today on
the NYSE. I don’t have an indicator that focuses solely on volume, so
interpreting the low volume is guesswork.
It may be that traders don’t want to hold stocks over the weekend. A bearish interpretation would be that the
markets are running out of buyers. I don’t
think that is the case now.
Breadth remains in bullish territory.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in
the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
HURRICANE SEASON DOWNGRADED AGAIN (Tampa Bay Times)
“After months of predicting a “below normal” [Atlantic
Basin] hurricane season, weather researchers at Colorado State University
further downgraded their forecast on Tuesday and now expect even fewer tropical
storms than average to form in the Atlantic this year. Forecasters now
anticipate nine named storms, including four hurricanes and one major
hurricane, during the season which runs through Nov. 30.” Story at…
Forecasters
further downgrade hurricane season to 'well below-normal'
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“U.S. applications for jobless aid in the week ending
July 4 ticked down by 2,000 to 215,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.”
Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-8d1f553fde8124606b2e3350fe789776
EXISITING HOME SALES (CNBC)
“Sales of previously owned homes in June dropped 2.4%
from May to 4.09 million units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis,
according to the National Association of Realtors…June sales were, however,
2.8% higher than the same month a year prior.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/09/june-home-sales-prices.html
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7544.
-VIX declined about 6% to 15.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 4.545% (compared
to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its
best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred
with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid
consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating
revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is
consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven
growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates
higher... Patient investors who recognize that
Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a
fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from
meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” –
Motley Fool at…
Nvidia
stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the
stock is headed next
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from +2 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher a BULLISH sign that smooths daily fluctuations.
The McClellan Oscillator improved and moved above zero. Life
Finance says: “A McClellan Oscillator reading above zero indicates bullish
market breadth. It means the short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of
advancing stocks minus declining stocks is higher than the long-term EMA,
signaling strong buying pressure and positive market momentum.” While that
sounds good, we need to put it in perspective. Wednesday was the only day in
the past 2-weeks that the Oscillator has been negative. This just reiterates
that breadth has been improving.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in
the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.) 
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
