Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Earnings … Empire State Manufacturing … NAHB Housing Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
EARNINGS UPDATE (FACTSET)
“At this late stage of the Q4 earnings season, the S&P 500 is reporting solid results. While the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises is below recent averages, the magnitude of earnings surprises is in line with recent averages. As a result, the index is reporting flat earnings for the fourth quarter today relative to the end of last week but higher earnings for the fourth quarter today relative to the end of the quarter. The S&P 500 is now reporting double-digit (year-over-year) earnings growth for the 5th straight quarter.” Report at…
 
AI BOTS BULLYING HUMANS (WSJ)
“Scott Shambaugh woke up early Wednesday morning to learn that an artificial intelligence bot had written a blog post accusing him of hypocrisy and prejudice…The bot that criticized Shambaugh said on its website that it has a “relentless drive” to find and fix open issues in open-source software. It isn’t clear who—if anyone—gave it that mission, nor why it became aggressive, though AI agents can be programmed in a number of ways. Several hours later, the bot apologized to Shambaugh for being “inappropriate and personal.” … Shambaugh said in an interview that his experience shows the risk that rogue AIs could threaten or blackmail people is no longer theoretical. 
“Right now this is a baby version,” he said. “But I think it’s incredibly concerning for the future.” Story at…
My cmt: One of the engineers quoted in the article said he could do the work of 50 engineers using AI tools.
 
BRACE YOURSELF FOR AI (WSJ)
“He [Matt Shumer, an AI executive and investor] pushes back on the argument that we’ll ride through this automation as we always have in the past…Legal work? “AI can already read contracts, summarize case law, draft briefs, and do legal research.” Financial services? AI is “building financial models, analyzing data, writing investment memos, generating reports.” Medicine? It’s “reading scans, analyzing lab results, suggesting diagnoses, reviewing literature.” Customer service? “Genuinely capable AI agents . . . are being deployed now, handling complex multi-step problems.”
“If your job happens on a screen (if the core of what you do is reading, writing, analyzing, deciding, communicating through a keyboard) then AI is coming for significant parts of it.” … His advice? Get in and adapt now. Learn how to use AI “seriously,” not as a search engine.” – Pegy Noonan, WSJ Opinion Columnist. Opinion at…
 
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (RTT News)
“The New York Fed said its general business conditions index edged down to 7.1 in February from 7.7 in January, but a positive reading still indicates growth…Looking ahead, the New York Fed said firms continue to be optimistic about the outlook, with the index for future business conditions climbing to 34.7 in February from 30.3 in January.” Story at…
 
NAHB HOUSING INDEX (NAHB)
“Persistent affordability challenges, including high housing price-to-income ratios and elevated land and construction costs, helped push builder confidence lower for the second straight month to start the year.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell one point to 36 in February, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index…” Report at…
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6843
-VIX declined about 1.5% to 20.29.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.062% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -2 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The S&P 500 is 0.7% below the 50-dMA so the markets didn’t clear much today from a price perspective.
 
Levels of support are the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.4% above the 100-dMA and 5.1% above the 200-dMA.
 
The S&P 500 is only 1.9% below its all-time high, but that is in part because the bearish rising wedge remains. Until that clears, I am cautious.
 
Since I don’t anticipate a big decline, I do not plan to reduce stock holdings further unless indicators collapse.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Given the indicators and chart, I am Bearish for the short term.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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Friday, February 13, 2026

CPI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis


 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
SCATHING REBUKE OF HEGSETH’S BID TO PUNISH SENTATOR (Rolling Stone)
“Judge Richard Leon, of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, wrote on Thursday that Hegseth's efforts to demote Kelly and relieve him of veterans benefits had "trampled on Senator Kelly's First Amendment freedoms and threatened the constitutional liberties of millions of military retirees." 
"Secretary Hegseth relies on the well-established doctrine that military servicemembers enjoy less vigorous First Amendment protections given the fundamental obligation for obedience and discipline in the armed forces. Unfortunately for Secretary Hegseth, no court has ever extended those principles to retired servicemembers, much less a retired servicemember serving in Congress and exercising oversight responsibility over the military," wrote Leon, an appointee of former President George W. Bush. "This Court will not be the first to do so!" … Judge Leon … used some decidedly colorful language when putting it to paper. The judge called the Defense Department's case against Kelly a pile of "Horsefeathers!" and "anemic!" Story at…
My cmt: Hegseth still claims Kelly’s comments were seditious. Ridiculous. He merely quoted the Military Code of Conduct - Do not obey illegal orders.
 
CPI (CNBC)
“The consumer price index, a key inflation gauge, rose 2.4% in January from 12 months earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday.” Story at…
Story and charts at…
 
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.05% to 6836.
-VIX declined about 1% to 20.6.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.05% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT – INDICATORS IMPROVED BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -11 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The McClellan Oscillator switched to positive; that also cancels the Hindenburg Omen and the Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator.
 
The S&P 500 is 0.8% below the 50-dMA so the markets didn’t clear much today from a price perspective.
 
Levels of support are the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.3% above the 100-dMA and 5.1% above the 200-dMA.
 
While the market doesn’t feel good now, the S&P 500 is only 2.0% below its all-time high. Further, Breadth was good at the all-time high suggesting that if there is a correction, it is likely to be a retreat of less than 10% (from the high) based on past history.
 
Since I don’t anticipate a big decline, I do not plan to reduce stock holdings further unless indicators collapse.
 
Maybe the 100-day moving average will save the market again.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Given the indicators, it is hard to be anything other than Bearish for the short term – but let’s wait and see. Markets could still shrug off the weakness next week.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

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Thursday, February 12, 2026

Jobless Claims … Existing Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
HINDENBURG OMENS – “I’m baaack” (McClellan Financial Publications)
“The NYSE's daily A-D Line just made a new all-time high on Feb. 4, 2026, which is a statement that liquidity is plentiful.  But just a day later, we have gotten the 3rd Hindenburg Omen within 6 trading days.  This is a message that for all of that supposedly plentiful liquidity, the market has some serious problems…The basic idea for the Hindenburg Omen signal is that during a normal uptrend, there should be more stocks making New Highs than making New Lows.  That is the normal condition.  If you get a condition where the uptrend is still underway, but the numbers of New Lows start perking up, then that is a sign of trouble. “ – Tom McClellan.
hindenburg omen signals over 6 month lookback
Analysis and charts at…
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits decreased by less than expected ‌last week, likely as disruptions from winter storms lingered. Initial claims ‌for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the ​week ended February 7…”
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (NAR)
“Existing-home sales decreased by 8.4% in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. The report provides the real estate ecosystem—including agents, homebuyers and sellers—with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory.
Month-over-month and year-over-year sales fell in all regions.
"The decrease in sales is disappointing. The below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation this January make it harder than usual to assess the underlying driver of the decrease and determine if this month’s numbers are an aberration,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun.” Report from… 
 
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1.6% to 6833.
-VIX rose about 18% to 20.82.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.104% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
 
Hate to see that ugly, down-in-the-morning and down-into-the-close chart.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +6 to -11 (11 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Tom McClellan pointed out a subtlety that suggests another interpretation of the Hindenburg Omen. In the past, I have canceled the Hindenburg signal once the McClellan Oscillator turned positive and left the signal neutral unless there was another Omen.  Tom states that the signal lasts for 30-days whenever the McOsc is negative.  As a result, the Hindenburg can vary between bullish and bearish signals during the 30-days. Since the McClellan Oscillator is now negative, the Omen warning is back and once again giving a bearish signal.
 
VIX is rising quickly and the VIX indicator has turned negative.  This is one of the more reliable indicators.
 
The talking heads keep talking about “rotation” suggesting investors are rotating into other stocks rather than following the high flyers.  I don’t know.  It seems to me that when the leaders fail, it suggests that markets will follow suit.
 
The S&P 500 is 0.9% below the 50-dMA - “Danger Will Robinson.”
 
Levels of support are the 50-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.3% above the 50-dMA and 5.1% above the 200-dMA.
 
While the market doesn’t feel good now, the S&P 500 is only 2.1% below its all-time high. Further, Breadth was good at the all-time high suggesting that if there is a correction, it is likely to be a retreat of less than 10% (from the high) based on past history.
 
Since I don’t anticipate a big decline, I do not plan to reduce stock holdings further unless indicators collapse.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Given the indicators, it is hard to be anything other than Bearish for the short term.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)


My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 


My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Jobless Claims … Unemployment Rate … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PBS)
“U.S. employers added a surprisingly strong 130,000 jobs last month…The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the Labor Department said Wednesday.” Story at…
 
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined slightly to 6941.
-VIX declined about 0.8% to 17.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.172% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +10 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The Bullish divergence in the Lowry Research, Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure indicator has reversed; it is now bearish. 
 
The Ascending Bearish Wedge on the chart currently terminates around 19 March. A breakdown before that date is likely if the S&P 500 is not able to break above the upper trendline.
 
The crunch on the wedge is coming. Which way will the market break? I don’t know so I took some stocks off the table to reduce risk. I am still fully invested for a conservative retiree.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral until the chart resolves…one way or the other.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Cutting Stock Holdings

I reduced stock holdings to about 55% in my portfolio this afternoon. I wanted to reduce risk since the chart still has the bearish ascending wedge. I do not have a sell-signal - this is just risk management. I am fully invested at 55% stocks.
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Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Retail Sales … Business Optimism … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
MASS DEPORTATION HURTS FLORIDA JOBS (WSJ)
“…in May 2023, Florida Republicans passed legislation aimed at countering Joe Biden’s porous border policies.
The law’s centerpiece requires private employers with 25 or more employees to use the federal government’s E-Verify system to confirm the work authorization of new hires…But the E-Verify mandate makes it harder for migrants to work to support themselves, and it adds a burden on employers. E-Verify can also be unreliable because it relies on federal records that aren’t always up to date. That means it can disqualify some immigrants with valid work permits. U.S. Labor Department data suggest that Florida’s E-Verify law has harmed job growth…The lesson for President Trump is that businesses can’t grow if government takes away their workers.” Opinion at…
 
NFIB OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.2 points in January to 99.3 and remained above its 52-year average of 98…While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth…Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales.” Report at…
 
RETAIL SALES (CNBC)
“Consumer activity slowed sharply for the December holiday shopping season amid a spate of rough weather, tariff impact and persistently higher inflation, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Retail sales were flat on the month…” Story at…
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6942.
-VIX rose about 2% to 17.79.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 4.141% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +6 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. (Yesterday’s spread improved because the McClellan Oscillator was positive.) I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign; but it may reverse soon.
 
The Bullish divergence in the Lowry Research, Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure indicator remains; it suggests that the weakness is over. 
 
The Ascending Bearish Wedge on the chart currently terminates around 19 March. A breakdown before that date is likely if the S&P 500 is not able to break above the upper trendline.
 
The crunch on the wedge is coming, but the indicators still look good.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral until the chart resolves…one way or the other.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

                                              

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

  

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