Navigate the Stock Market

Thursday, August 20, 2026

Philly Fed … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-philly-fed-manufacturing-index-rose-to-five-year-high-in-august

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims dropped to 206,000 last week from a revised 212,000 the week before. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out week-to-week ups and downs, ticked up to 204,000 last week from 199,750.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-claims-jobs-economy-layoffs-5d623586cbcf1eeeaa6ee6cc084ed566

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.9% to 7641.
-VIX rose about 8% to 16.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.704% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

We always hate to see these down-day slides into the close.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +5 to -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

While the technical indicators aren’t all that bad, the idea that markets might be reacting to the federal National Debt of more than 40 trillion dollars is frightening. (This is about $400,000 for every taxpayer who actually pays taxes.) Here’s what Mark Sobel, Chief economist and vice chair, Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, had to say on the subject of longer-term bond yields;
“Our massively irresponsible fiscal policy is the root cause of the sustained rise in longer term yields…If the Trump administration wishes to take the pressure off long term yields, it needs to reduce our reckless fiscal deficits. Increasing buybacks is akin to spitting into a gale force wind.”

If he is correct, and it is time to pay the piper, markets will be facing severe trouble. Indicators don’t suggest that now. We’ll have to see how the S&P 500 reacts when it reaches its levels of support.

Back in early August, the downturn reversed when the lower Bollinger Band was breached. Now, the lower Bollinger Band on the S&P 500 is 7325, about 4% below today’s close. That number varies and is likely to decline if markets continue down. Another level of support for the S&P 500 is its 50-dMA (around the lower trendline). The Index is 1.4% above its 50-dMA as of today’s close. So, the question is; will the dip buyers move in around the lower trendline?

Thursday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time,

Bottoms almost always occur on/or near Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms. Today is not likely to have been a short-term bottom; there were no Bottom Indicators flashing “buy.”

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, but watching closely. Indicators are not currently suggesting it’s time to panic; but according to some, the bond market is.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, August 19, 2026

FED Minutes … Crude Inventories … Treasury Steps into the Bond Market … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

DISENCHANTMENT WITH ISRAEL BEGAN YEARS AGO (WSJ)
“Mr. Galston [“Why Much of America Soured on Israel” (WSJ-Politics & Ideas, Aug. 12)] presents several statistics indicating decreased support among Americans for Israel and places blame on the shoulders of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Yet extreme antipathy for Israel is nothing new. A 2003 poll conducted for the European Commission found that 59% of surveyed citizens viewed the world’s only Jewish state as a “threat to world peace.” Not surprisingly, the U.S. placed second (tied with Iran and North Korea). The gulf between perception and reality then and now can’t be blamed on Mr. Netanyahu, nor TikTok or social media, which did not yet exist.
The reason for the overwhelming negative view of the Jews and the Jewish state is, as it has always been, portrayal.” - Eli Litman. Letters to the Editor, WSJ. From…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/disenchantment-with-israel-began-long-ago-1f91f2c5?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos12

CRUDE INVENTORY (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 428.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are matching the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at…
https://ir.eia.gov/secure/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf?Policy=eyJTdGF0ZW1lbnQiOlt7IlJlc291cmNlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9pci5laWEuZ292L3NlY3VyZS93cHNyLyoiLCJDb25kaXRpb24iOnsiRGF0ZUxlc3NUaGFuIjp7IkFXUzpFcG9jaFRpbWUiOjE3ODc3NTA0MDB9LCJEYXRlR3JlYXRlclRoYW4iOnsiQVdTOkVwb2NoVGltZSI6MTc4NzE0OTgwMH19fV19&Signature=Auu3FcwcRJU56tig5rE4EC4iP~MKN3wS1G7eJQ98ys6xI1HfpaFkcKXR~Mi8gs~l-sx8r0i1aC-ynV5OOvdBjjyJDVTPhitMZ1YDBl9t4P4cxw0uaeVfMfGxi4nhUdIyjL45LhYfcyIA~eV~phmMgIuiYQCJYR20r9DgWVbBs2os4b~368jjEdafQhEEt5B~FvQfGsLwqysvdeCQjPXMEbIeOC0x2KuqTzSBdVxayQyH2ss689X2QOiUYgYMfmUW2LXU7uA6AMtiDRwJDkBzZYEfu52GSRfZmUUI4ILyY4-xs27sQtPxJWzKJJqXCRZeVWynJCI0BManBtgnToLSMw&Key-Pair-Id=K26E8B9QMJ2WHX

TREASURY STEADIES THE BOND MARKET (CNBC)
“The Treasury Department said Wednesday it will at least double the level of government debt buybacks in the next few months, targeting the sensitive longer-duration segment of the market. Yields tumbled following the announcement and stock market futures surged.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/treasury-announces-upscaled-buyback-operation-for-longer-term-debt-sending-yields-lower.html
My cmt: It is always a difficult proposition to claim that a specific event propelled the stock market. This time I think the pundits are correct. Bond yields fell; the markets went up.

FEDERAL RESERVE LIKELY TO HIKE IF INFLATION DOESN’T COOL (CNBC)
“Many participants assessed that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline,” stated the summary of the meeting, held July 28-29. “Some participants commented that financial conditions might not currently be sufficiently restrictive to facilitate a return of inflation to 2 percent.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/fed-minutes-july-2026-officials-saw-need-for-rate-hike-if-inflation-doesnt-cool.html
My cmt: Odds are 1 in 3 of a hike in September per CME Group FedWatch at…
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7708.
-VIX declined about 5% to 15.02.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.641% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +1 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Breadth improved today, but the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE is still in negative territory. I won’t worry too much. It was nice to see some improvement in markets (and indicators) today and the Treasury Dept propping up the bond market was good news.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, but hoping markets will improve.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Housing Starts … Industrial Production … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

“On Monday, the Supreme Court rejected Trump's last-ditch bid to reconsider his appeal in writer E. Jean Carroll's sexual abuse case, locking in a jury's finding that he assaulted her in a Bergdorf Goodman dressing room in the mid-1990s and then defamed her. The one-sentence order came with no explanation and no noted dissents.” Story at…
Supreme Court just slammed the door on Trump — and there's nowhere left to run: expert

WHAT IS DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM? (DSA)
“I don’t think that we should have billionaires because, frankly, it is so much money in a moment of such inequality, and ultimately, what we need more of is equality across our city and across our state and across our country.” – Zohran Mandami
“Capitalism is a system designed by the owning class to exploit the rest of us for their own profit.” – From the DSA manifesto.
https://www.dsausa.org/about-us/what-is-democratic-socialism/
My cmt: What crap. I’m not a fan of the vilification of capitalism and billionaires. What about those two guys that started their computer company from a suburban garage? Jobs and Wozniak did ok with Apple; Larry Ellison co-founded Oracle with just $2000 to commercialize an IBM research paper on relational databases; Computer nerds Bill Gates and Paul Allen started Microsoft with their own savings; Elon Musk started Zip2 with $2000. He sold it for $307-million and founded Tesla, SpaceX, The Boring Company, Neuralink Corporation and PayPal. He also owns Solar City and Twitter (X).
Where would we be without the entrepreneurs? The current “owning class” didn’t own squat – they built their wealth from scratch – that’s capitalism.

HOUSING STARTS / BUILDING PERMITS (Scotsman Guide)
"Single-family housing starts hit their lowest mark in more than three years in July as an ongoing contraction in new home construction deepened last month. The annual pace of single-family starts plunged 10% from June to land at 808,000, more than 15% below year-ago levels, according to estimates published Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development…A slight rise in permitting activity offered a silver lining in Tuesday’s release as the pace of single-family authorizations rose 2.5% over the month to approach 1.1% growth from year-ago levels.” Story at…
https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/single-family-housing-starts-drop-to-lowest-level-since-2022/

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Federal Reserve)
“Industrial production (IP) and manufacturing production each grew 0.2 percent in July after growing 0.3 percent in June.” Report at…
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.7% to 7692.
-VIX rose about 4% to 15.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.708% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +3 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign. There are other worries, too:
-There have been 4 Hindenburg Omens in the last 9 sessions. The Fosback Hi/Low Logic index is also issuing a bearish signal. Fosback’s indicator uses a methodology similar to the Hindenburg.
-Breadth has been weak and we now see that over the last 2 weeks more issues have been down on the NYSE than have been up.

On a positive note, breath was reasonably good at the all-time high just three sessions ago so I don’t expect a significant correction greater than 10%. I think it is more likely that the weakness is a normal dip back to the lower trend line around the 50-dMA. At Tuesday’s close, the S&P 500 is 2.3% above its 50-dMA of 7522.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, August 17, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

I was talking to an acquaintance the other day. He said today’s socialist politicians were “socialist light.” These days, people believe what they believe. There was no point in arguing, but I suggested he read the Democratic Socialist of America (DSA) website; I’m sure he didn’t. The following is taken from their website. It speaks for itself.
WHAT IS DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM? (DSA)
“Capitalism is a system designed by the owning class to exploit the rest of us for their own profit. We must replace it with democratic socialism, a system where ordinary people have a real voice in our workplaces, neighborhoods, and society…We want to collectively own the key economic drivers that dominate our lives, such as energy production and transportation. We want the multiracial working class united in solidarity instead of divided by fear. We want to win “radical” reforms like single-payer Medicare for All, defunding the police/refunding communities, the Green New Deal, and more as a transition to a freer, more just life.”
https://www.dsausa.org/about-us/what-is-democratic-socialism/
Under About Us: “We are socialists because we reject an international economic order sustained by private profit, alienated labor, race and gender discrimination, environmental destruction, and brutality and violence in defense of the status quo.”
https://www.dsausa.org/about-us/
Statements from their website:
- “Today is the centenary of Fidel Castro, and the Democratic Socialists of America recognize the historic significance of both this day and the man. Fidel was an organizer, a fighter, and endures as a stalwart symbol of anti-imperialist struggle and self-determination for the Global South. DSA has a long history of solidarity with the Cuban people, their revolution, and their self-determination. We choose this historic day to recommit ourselves to acting in solidarity with the Cuban people and to starkly opposing Marco Rubio’s genocidal war against the Cuban people and US imperialism writ large.“

- “DSA recognizes that ICE serves to divide and repress the working class. In contrast, we stand with the multiracial working class and understand that only together can we defeat capitalism. Shamefully, Republican and Democratic politicians have supported this fascistic tool of nakedly racist class exploitation…We demand the abolition of ICE, and free movement of all people everywhere!”

- “Democratic Socialists of America calls on Senator Sanders to take a firm stance against Israeli genocide and call for a permanent embargo on arms to Israel.”

- “…we know that sea-surface temperatures have continued to rise year after year due to extractive industries and the capitalist death cult. Further, the mass death and displacement felt across New Orleans [from Hurricane Katrina] was directly caused by organized abandonment of the State at every level of government…The deployment of Blackwater mercenaries to “protect” storefronts from people attempting to get food and dry clothes extended the overreach of DHS to make private contractors money at the expense of working people fighting for their lives.”
My cmt: That’s all I can take. We are electing people whose goal is to overthrow the United States government.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7745.
-VIX rose about 7% to 15.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.726% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

We never like to see a chart like this. Down all day with a close at the low is a worrying sign that may suggest downside, follow-thru Tuesday. Unfortunately, we didn’t get the up-day that was suggested by the good market internals Friday. Signals are never always correct.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Saturday, August 15, 2026

Retail Sales … Consumer Sentiment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +17 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

There are almost 3 bull signals for every bear signal – that very bullish.

Both Retail Sales and Sentiment were disappointing Friday, but markets didn’t fall far and internals were actually bullish. Advancing-issues outpaced-declining issues; advancing-volume was ahead of declining-volume; and new-highs outpaced new-lows. Those numbers would usually result in an up-day. Since we didn’t get that up-day today, I’d expect a bullish day Monday.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, August 13, 2026

PPI … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +13 to +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

The S&P 500 made a new, all-time high today, Thursday. 5% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today. That is below the 5-year average for this stat, but it is still high enough that, when combined with Breadth, it does not suggest a correction in the near future.

Jobs are OK; PPI didn’t surprise; all seems well. More new highs on the way,
but, the Iran conflict could always surprise markets to the downside.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)