Navigate the Stock Market

Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Richmond Fed Manufacturing … Dallas Fed Factory … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

"It is incredibly distasteful to use our heroic dead for a political attack on Memorial Day, I’m a Democrat and I condemn this post by the DNC." - Sen. Tammy Duckworth, (D) Illinois, veteran of the Iraq war.
The post was subsequently removed.
My cmt: When the U.S. conducted air-strikes against Muammar Gaddafi, I was concerned that he would bring more terrorist actions against the U.S. Instead, the opposite ocurred. Terrorists only respond to force. Our attacks against Iran are probably long overdue. What bothers me is that the Trump Administration seemed to believe that air-strikes alone would topple the Islamic government. That is a naïve and incompetent view. They may still get a settlement, but will it be enough to stop Iran’s terrorist support, open the Strait of Hormuz and remove the uranium stockpile?

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

CAPITOL HILL’S UNLOVABLE LOSERS (WSJ – Excerpt)
“…the New York Mets [were] a historically hapless team that ended the [inaugural] season 40-120. One day their grizzled manager, Casey Stengel, said: “Can’t anyone here play this game?”
After watching events in Washington over the past week, I have an inkling of how Mr. Stengel felt… We have two monumentally inept teams.
Start with the Democrats. While running for the chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee, Ken Martin promised to conduct a thorough review of the party’s failed 2024 presidential campaign…CNN [published] the draft report. It was incredibly bad—disorganized, poorly written, nearly devoid of sources and substance. It was an embarrassment, most of all to Mr. Martin….
…The other inept team is the Republicans… After President Trump requested $220 million to secure his new East Wing ballroom, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced a $1.776 billion fund to compensate people who claim to have been subjected to unjust treatment by the government—likely including rioters who stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021…
…Former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell summed it up well: “So the nation’s top law-enforcement official is asking for a slush fund to pay people who assault cops? Utterly stupid, morally wrong—take your pick.”…
… Last week’s farce was only a momentary interruption in the tragedy of Mr. Trump’s ongoing assault on constitutional government. If Republicans can’t resist the direction in which Mr. Trump is leading them and Democrats can’t offer an alternative, the U.S. will continue spiraling downward.” - William A. Galston, Opinion Columnist, Politics & Ideas, The Wall Street Journal. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/william-a-galston

THE RISK FOR HOLDING STOCKS OVER BONDS IS VANISHING (WSJ)

“Investors are piling into stocks at a feverish pace. But by one measure, equities look as unattractive as they did after the dot-com bubble burst.
That metric is the equity risk premium, often defined as the gap between the S&P 500’s earnings yield—the profit companies generate relative to stock valuations, expressed as a percentage—and that of the 10-year Treasury note.”
The risk premium for holding stocks over bonds is vanishing
My cmt: The risk for holding stocks over bonds is increasing, but that’s not the way this article defines “risk premium.” Bottom line: Stocks are riskier now and may soon be riskier than bonds.

RICHMOND FED (Investing Live)
“Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The future indexes for shipments and new orders increased further into positive territory.” Story at…
https://investinglive.com/news/us-richmond-fed-may-composite-index-13-vs-3-prior-20260527/

DALLAS FED SERVICES (Fort Worth Inc)
“Texas factory activity continued to expand in May, though growth slowed from the previous month, according to the latest Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The survey’s production index — a key measure of state manufacturing conditions — fell nearly 10 points to 9.4, signaling a more moderate pace of output growth. Other indicators also remained positive but weakened compared to April, including capacity utilization, new orders and shipments.
https://fortworthinc.com/news/texas-manufacturing-growth-continues-to-expand-but-slows-in-/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1 pt to 7520.
-VIX declined about 4% to 16.29.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.502% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +13 to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 made a new all-time high today, by a point, Wednesday. 136 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is below the 5-year average, but still reasonably high. Breadth remained positive - more than 50% of stocks on the NYSE have been up over the last 10-days. These stats show breadth is ok so we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon.

Wednesday there was High-unchanged-volume. Some think that unchanged volume is a sign of a market reversal, in this case lower. This is not one of my indicators since it is often wrong.

Indicators look good; the Bull-Bear Spread was higher for 2 consecutive days. Bear signals are unremarkable. It is time to add some stocks to the trading portfolio unless the price action tomorrow weirds me out.

While many are optimistic about the Iran conflict, I doubt that there will be an easy resolution. How the stock market may respond to more shooting is an unknown.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish – I’m just following indicators.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

JEFF BEZOS - NO TRUTH TO THE ‘BUY BORROW DIE STRATEGY (CNBC)
“Amazon executive chairman Jeff Bezos said a controversial tax strategy used by the wealthy to borrow against assets to lower their income taxes is largely a “myth.”
“There’s no truth to this ‘buy, borrow, die’ thing,” Bezos told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin Wednesday in a wide-ranging interview. “I don’t even know where this comes from.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/20/jeff-bezos-taxes.html

BUY BORROW DIE (NTSM)
Larry Ellison, former CEO of Oracle, is often mentioned in discussions about the tax strategy. For example, here’s a quote from the internet: “Ellison frequently uses his Oracle stock as collateral for loans to fund his lifestyle rather than selling shares, a strategy that avoids triggering capital gains taxes. [Buy, Borrow, Die strategy] As of 2025 Ellison had about 70-billion in stock collateral pledged as collateral for personal loans.”

What they don’t tell you is that much of this is associated with the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery by his son's company, Paramount Skydance, but we’ll ignore that for now. Let’s see what happens if Ellison sells a Billion dollars in stock. As a founder of Oracle, his basis would be small so selling stock would trigger large capital gains. If he sold a billion dollars in stock with a basis near zero his tax would be $238-million (23.8% tax rate). If Elison borrowed a Billion dollars at 5% interest for 10-years, 273-million would be paid in interest more than he would save by the Buy-borrow-Die strategy.

Maybe it works for a line of credit that is used for short-term loans? I don’t know. There’s always interest on loans. It does keep the Government from getting the money. Does Elisson pay taxes? Yes.

Ellison is estimated to own around $200-billion in Oracle stock. Oracle is paying about 1% in dividends now so he would earn about two-billion dollars annually in dividends. High earners pay 20% on the dividends so he would pay $400-million in Federal taxes on the dividends annually.

Overall, his tax rate paid is similar to the average tax payer. From the internet, “Analysis of his [Larry Elisson] tax records indicated an average effective federal income tax rate of 21.8% between 2013 and 2018, which is lower than the rate paid by many average income earners relative to his wealth” – Google AI
“Relative to his wealth” is a misleading statement since taxes are based on income not wealth.

BIAS IN THE SUPREME COURT (The Hill)
“…there is more than political advantage at stake. In addition to charges of the justices playing politics, the high court’s permissive approach to partisan redistricting opens the door to real racial division and pain. The civil rights struggle to win equal voting rights for racial minorities and fair representation in Congress is a struggle that goes back to the years following the Civil War.” Story at…
Opinion: Redistricting ruling roils Supreme Court with corruption, bias claims

JACKIE ROBINSON MOMENT (The Holl)
“Almost 50 years ago, the U.S. Supreme Court found that racial quotas in university admissions violated the 14th Amendment. The court later declared all racial preferences to be unconstitutional. Yet, for decades, a form of political affirmative action has persisted under the Voting Rights Act, where federal courts required racial gerrymandering to guarantee the election of minority members to Congress.
That ended with the Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais, which found that was also unlawful racial discrimination.
The Callais decision brought something long missing from our constitutional jurisprudence: consistency. In 2007, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that “the way to stop discriminating on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.” Yet for decades, certain forms of racial discrimination were tolerated in the name of diversity or equity. The Callais decision put an end to this pretense and declared all such racial gerrymandering is illegal and discriminatory.” Story at…
Opinion: This is a 'Jackie Robinson moment,' but not the one Hakeem Jeffries thinks it is

TRUMP HAS LOST THE GOVERNING PLOT (WSJ-Excerpt)

“Republicans don’t want to say this publicly, but privately they do: President Trump’s personal political obsessions are hurting his Presidency, harming the chances for further policy gains the rest of this year, and putting control of the House and Senate in jeopardy…
…That’s the backdrop to the GOP revolt this week in Congress on war powers and funding for the Department of Homeland Security…GOP leaders pulled the entire funding legislation when it appeared they might lose the weaponization vote [Trump’s insistence on his $1.776 billion “anti-weaponization fund” to settle Trump’s lawsuit against IRS] and went home on recess…
..Mr. Trump’s Presidency will be all but over—except for impeachment 3.0—if the GOP loses control of Congress in November…Mr. Trump needs a second-year reset, or he is headed toward a second-term failure.” -The Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-has-lost-the-governing-plot-4879dd64
My cmt: I am a conservative; unfortunately, Trump is not. His Presidency is now, especially due to his ridiculous slush fund proposal, a complete failure. Even in areas where most of the country agreed with him, for example closing the borders and enforcing immigration laws, he has gone completely overboard and managed to exasperate thoughtful voters.

TOM LEE TROUBLE IS BREWING FOR WALL STREET (Benzinga)
“I think we’ve already had a bear market in Mag-7 and software.” While those high-flying sectors are expected to remain safe, the same cannot be said for the broader market. “I think there’s going to be a bear market in other stocks later this year,” Lee warned, pointing to headwinds that will squeeze companies that “got lofty.” According to Lee, the market is poised to confront three primary hurdles as the year progresses: typical midterm seasonal volatility, a looming supply overhang from upcoming tech IPO lockup expirations, and a critical energy crunch.” Story at…
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/market-summary/26/05/52765748/tom-lee-says-mag-7-bear-market-is-over-but-trouble-is-brewing-for-rest-of-wall-street-day-of-reckoning

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 7519.
-VIX rose about 2% to 17.01. (The Options Players are more concerned than the stock traders.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.483% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
What Pullback?
Bollinger Bands and RSI were overbought; 6-Hindenburg Omens; 4-Fosback HI/Low Logic Index Sell signals; 6-bearish MACD signals and we got nothing?
The S&P 500 made a new high - Correction over.
I expected at least a 3-5% retreat, but the Index never declined more than 2% from its all-time high. Where do we go from here?

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +5 to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 made a new all-time high today, Tuesday. New, all-time highs for the S&P 500 give us an opportunity to check the health of the stock market. Specifically, we look at market breadth to make sure there is plenty of participation across the market.
163 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is slightly below the 5-year average, but still reasonably high. Breadth turned positive - more than 50% of stocks on the NYSE have been up over the last 10-days. These stats show breadth is ok so we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon.

I’ll wait another day before I commit more $ to the stock market. Since we didn’t get much of a pullback after the top-warning, there is always a concern that stocks may retreat from the new highs. Indicators look good, but I want to be sure that the 10-dMA of the Bull-Bear Spread is moving higher for at least 2 consecutive days.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish in the short-term – I’m just following indicators.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Leading Economic Indicators … Consumer Sentiment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

It was a busy day Friday so I’m posting Friday’s blog Saturday. Monday is Memorial Day, so no post Monday.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board)
“The US LEI increased slightly in April, driven mainly by a rebound in stock prices and an increase in building permits, only for two and more units,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The leading index rose in two of the past three months, but the gains did not offset the steep fall registered in March. As a result, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates were negative, signaling fragile economic conditions ahead… The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.7% y/y GDP growth in 2026, revised up slightly from last update of 1.6%.”
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/

CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month as supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to boost gasoline prices. Sentiment is now just below the previous historical trough seen in June 2022. The cost of living continues to be a first-order concern, with 57% of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices were eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month. Lower-income consumers and those without college degrees posted particularly strong sentiment declines; these groups are more sensitive to increases in the cost of gas and other essentials. Independents and Republicans saw decreases in sentiment, with both groups reaching their lowest readings of the current presidential administration. Meanwhile, sentiment of Democrats was little changed from last month. Critically, consumers appear worried that inflation will increase and proliferate beyond fuel prices, even in the long run.
Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up from 4.7% last month to 4.8% this month.” Press release at…
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

TOM LEE – MICHIGAN SENTIMENT IS BIASED (Benzinga)
“Fundstrat Head of Research, Tom Lee criticized the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for what he described as partisan bias, arguing that an imbalance in respondents' political affiliations was skewing the data.” Story at…
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/26/05/52711316/fundstrats-tom-lee-torches-michigan-consumer-sentiment-survey-over-notoriously-partisan-skew-not-a-fair-breakdown

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7473.
-VIX declined about 0.4% to 16.70.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.558% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Pullback Data:
-Days since the top: 6
-Drop from the Top: 0.4%
-% above the 50-dMA: 6.9%
-% above the 200-dMA: 9.8%
Pullback? What pullback?

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -4 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 made a new-all-time high during mid-afternoon at 7506. At the close Friday, breadth was weak. If the S&P 500 had closed at a new-high with weak breadth it would have suggested a significant correction. Since it wasn’t at the close, I am left guessing.

Indicators have been improving as the S&P 500 has been rising over the last three days. It would not be unusual to see the Index make a new high only to fall back into a correction.

On the other hand, I was expecting a 3-5% pullback. We got 2%. Is that enough? Doesn’t seem like it, but we’ll find out next week.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish in the short-term, still expecting a relatively small pullback... but I am much less sure of that call. There are a lot of bulls out there.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Philly Fed … Global PMI … Jobless Claims … Building Permits … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“One of the painful signs of years of dumbed-down education is how many people are unable to make a coherent argument. They can vent their emotions, question other people’s motives, make bold assertions, repeat slogans—anything except reason.” ― Thomas Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.

PHILLY FED (WSJ)
“Growth in manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed’s region pulled back in May, although firms remained optimistic about the forward outlook. The Philly Fed’s monthly Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed its headline index falling to -0.4 this month, from 26.7 in April. Negative numbers indicate a contraction in the manufacturing sector.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/philly-fed-survey-shows-regional-manufacturing-stalled-a9d70c99

JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“Fewer Americans filed for jobless aid last week as layoffs remain low despite a number of uncertainties that continue to cloud the economy. U.S. applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 16 fell by 3,000 to 209,000…” Story at…
https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/us-jobless-aid-filings-fell-209000-week-layoffs-133182650

BUILDING PERMITS (Advisor Perspectives)
“Building permits rose 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.442 million. The latest reading exceeded the forecast of 1.380 million. Building permits are down 0.2% from the previous year.” Story at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/05/21/building-permits-rise-5-8-in-april-higher-than-expected?topic=real-estate

MANUFACTURING PMI (Reuters)
“U.S. manufacturing activity strengthened in May, scaling the highest level in four years, as businesses boosted inventories to guard against ‌potential shortages and rising prices related to the war with Iran.
S&P Global said its flash manufacturing PMI increased to 55.3 this month, the highest reading since May 2022…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-manufacturing-activity-rises-four-year-high-may-sp-global-survey-shows-2026-05-21/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7446.
-VIX declined about 4% to 16.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.574% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Pullback Data:
-Days since the top: 5
-Drop from the Top: 0.7%
-% above the 50-dMA: 6.8%
-% above the 200-dMA: 9.5%
Pullback? What pullback? Not much so far.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -2 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The Fosback Short-Term Hi/Low Index is still flashing sell today, Thursday. As noted previously, this is a reliable indicator.

Thursday, there we didn’t see another Hindenburg Omen. That doesn’t matter, we have seen enough of them already. The Hindenburg Omen remains in place for 30-days unless the McClellan Oscillator is positive.

Breadth remains weak; only 47.5% of issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 2 weeks. For now, longer term breadth values are still ok.

Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, was ok at the top so that suggests that if we do see a correction that it would be less than 10%. On the low side, pullbacks of 3% to 5% are normal and happen all the time. Indicators are still neutral so the guess now is that we are likely to see a small correction.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish in the short-term, still expecting a relatively small pullback.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Fed Minutes … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

TRUMP’S BILLION DOLLAR ‘ANTI-WEAPONIZATION FUND’ (WSJ)
“President Trump, his elder sons, and the family business moved Monday to dismiss their federal lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service for the leak of Mr. Trump’s tax returns. In exchange, the Justice Department said it will create a $1.776 billion fund to compensate targets of government “weaponization.” Could future historians ask for a better emblem of today’s warped political age?... Mr. Trump’s settlement fund is an astounding precedent, and if it proceeds it is sure to become a highlight reel of Trump Administration payments to Mr. Trump’s friends and allies. Imagine the fun Democrats will have documenting it all between now and 2028 as the worst kind of Washington political payoff.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-settlement-fund-doj-irs-todd-blanche-8b1c4303
My cmt: Trump sued the federal government claiming “legal weaponization” by the Biden administration. Now, the Justice Department, an Executive Branch agency whose boss is President Trump, will “settle” the lawsuit by paying off Trump and his cronies!?! Unbelievable! I am speechless.

OFFICERS SUE TO BLOCK “WEAPONIZATION” PAYOUTS (AP News)
“Two police officers who helped defend the U.S. Capitol from an attack by a mob of President Donald Trump’s supporters sued on Wednesday to block anyone — including Jan. 6, 2021, rioters — from receiving payouts from a new $1.776 billion settlement fund for people who claim to be victims of politically motivated prosecutions.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/irs-trump-settlement-tax-returns-police-capitol-riot-fc73eb5f35481bb6d8892ac1e14e98bd

DEMOCRATS DON’T FIGHT FIRE WITH FIRE (WSJ)
“I have an Article II, where I have the right to do whatever I want as president.” – President Trump.
“In order for us to correct the abuses that are happening now, we have to act the same in similar capacities that Trump has given himself,” - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.)
“Donald Trump has made clear that there are no guardrails on executive power that are effective. So, the idea that the next president somehow just doesn’t pick up the tools and use them to execute on the policies that they run on makes no sense… We can’t play the game that Republican presidents get lots of power and Democratic presidents don’t.” - Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.)
… But as we fight fiercely among ourselves, none of us are really winning. Only our foreign adversaries are. The national interest requires what I am convinced most Americans really want—a time of healing, when we relearn the ancient truth that what unites us is more important than what divides us.” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/democrats-dont-fight-fire-with-fire-6c0f48fd
My cmt: They won’t listen to reason. Democrats are planning their revenge.

FED MINUTES (CNBC via msn)
“A majority of Federal Reserve officials at their most recent meeting anticipated that interest rate increases would be necessary if the Iran war continued to aggravate inflation, according to minutes released Wednesday.” Story at…
Fed officials see rate hike ahead if inflation stays elevated, minutes show

CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 445.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at…
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 7433.
-VIX declined about 3.4% to 17.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.585% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Pullback Data:
-Days since the top: 4
-Drop from the Top: 0.9%
-% above the 50-dMA: 6.8%
-% above the 200-dMA: 9.4%

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from zero to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

Wednesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. There was a statistically significant, down-day three days ago. Today’s back and forth action is the type of action one sees during pullbacks, still, today’s move doesn’t say much for the prospects of correction.

The Fosback Short-Term Hi/Low Index is still flashing sell today, Wednesday. As noted yesterday, this is a reliable indicator.

Wednesday, there was another Hindenburg Omen.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. We’ve seen 6 in the last 8 days.

Breadth remains weak; only 45.8% of issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 2 weeks. For now, longer term breadth values are still ok.

Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, was ok at the top so that suggests that if we do see a correction that it would be less than 10%. On the low side, pullbacks of 3% to 5% are normal and happen all the time. Indicators are still neutral so the guess now is that we are likely to see a small correction.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish in the short-term, still expecting a relatively small pullback.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to zero (Equal Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

One of the more reliable indicators, the Fosback Short-Term Hi/Low Index, flashed sell today, Tuesday. Here’s some more on the subject from Hull Tactical:
“The Fosback High-Low Logic Index (HLLI), developed by Norman Fosback, is a market breadth indicator that identifies periods of extreme divergence by measuring the number of stocks hitting 52-week highs and lows simultaneously. A high reading indicates a severely "split" market, often signaling potential market tops or instability.” From…
https://hulltactical.com/2024/12/12/the-fosback-high-low-indicator/

This indicator warned 5-days after the top of the recent 9% correction when the S&P 500 was down less than 1%. It confirms the top-indicators from last week.

The 50-dMA is now 6% above the 50-day. The S&P 500 has fallen 1.9% from its all-time high.

Breadth remains weak; only 45% of issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 2 weeks. For now, longer term breadth values are still ok.

Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, was ok at the top so that suggests that if we do see a correction that it would be less than 10%. On the low side, pullbacks of 3% to 5% are normal and happen all the time. Indicators are still neutral so the guess now is that we are likely to see a small correction.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish in the short-term expecting a relatively small pullback.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)