Friday, March 13, 2026

Inflation … Durable Goods … Sentiment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
PCE INFLATION (Morningstar)
“The January Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index posted a softer-than-expected increase, up 2.8% from year-ago levels…When volatile food and energy costs are factored out, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation increased 3.1% from one year ago…” Story at…
 
DURABLE GOODS (ABA Banking Journal)
New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased $0.1 billion in January to $321.2 billion, virtually unchanged since the previous month…Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.5%.” Story at…
 
UNIV OF MICH SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment dipped about 2%, reaching its lowest reading of the year. Interviews completed prior to the military action in Iran showed an improvement in sentiment from last month, but lower readings seen during the nine days thereafter completely erased those initial gains.” Report at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 6632.
-VIX declined about 0.4% to 27.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.283% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5%
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: 0.4%
Days since top: 42. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)

 

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -16 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
As the S&P 500 declined from yesterday’s interim low, volume declined. This may suggest that the bottom of this decline is getting closer.  We can’t be too optimistic; there was very little improvement in internals. Indicators improved some too, but not enough to get excited. It might mean that the Index won’t test its prior low around 6540.
 
That 6540 level is a real possibility if the war in Iran drags on and oil prices remain high.
 
As we have noted before, there were signs at the top that suggested declines would be less than 10%. Since part of the decline is due to events in the middle east, that prediction may be wrong.
 
The 5% decline we have seen so far is a normal bull-market pullback that doesn’t even deserve the title “correction,” but it looks like markets may continue down into correction territory. The index is not far from its 200-dMA and we should watch market action around the 200-day. It is an important support level and I may want to raise some more cash if the 200-dMA doesn’t hold. I tend to be more conservative now, and “return-of-investment” is more important the “return-on-investment.”
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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Thursday, March 12, 2026

Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting labor market conditions remained stable even after the economy shed jobs in February, but the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran poses a downside risk…Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally ​adjusted 213,000 for the week ended March 7.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1.5% to 6673.
-VIX rose about 12% to 27.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.261% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 % drop from the Top: 4.4%
S&P 500 % Above 200-dMA: 1.1%
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -15 to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
The Bollinger Band indicator was oversold today.
“Bollinger Bands are a popular technical analysis tool consisting of a 20-period simple moving average (center line) and two outer bands representing volatility (+/-2 standard deviations).” Fidelity Investments.
 
I use Bollinger Bands with RSI. Since RSI is not oversold, I will ignore the Bollinger Band indicator. I don’t act on one indicator, further, markets can remain oversold for long periods.
 
The S&P 500 is only about 1% above its 200-dMA.  The 200-day presents a good test. We want to see the 200-day hold.  If the S&P 500 falls below the 200-day on consecutive days, it would be bad news.
 
As we have noted before, there were signs at the top that suggested declines would be less than 10%. Since part of the decline is due to events in the middle east, that prediction may be wrong.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Wednesday, March 11, 2026

CPI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JP MORGAN NOTE TO CLIENTS (The Street)
“JPMorgan expects the current episode of market stress to last days or weeks, not months. That framing matters because it shapes how investors should respond. Rather than positioning defensively for a prolonged downturn, the bank is telling clients to watch for oversold conditions and stretched positioning to clear. Once that happens, JPMorgan sees the selloff flipping into a buying opportunity.” Story at…
 
BEAR MARKET WARNING (Motley Fool)
“The February nonfarm payroll report came in way below expectations. The economy lost 92,000 jobs… That brings the total number of jobs created over the last 12 months to just 156,000. To put that into context, the economy was frequently creating that many jobs in a single month… Nonfarm payroll growth has been negative in five of the previous nine months. Since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began releasing this report back in 1939, this "5 in 9" stretch has happened only 13 times. When it happens, it tends to correlate highly with periods of economic stress, recession, and bear-market corrections of at least 20%...” Story at…  
 
CPI (CNBC)
“The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.4%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Wednesday. Both numbers matched the Dow Jones consensus forecast.
Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI posted a 0.2% monthly reading and 2.5% annual rate…” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6776.
-VIX declined about 3% to 24.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.228% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -16 to -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
The chart below is a simple indicator that gives us an idea of the health of the market. It counts the percentage of 15 ETF’s that are up over a 10-day period. Those ETFs were selected to represent a cross section of the market and they are the same ones that I track for momentum. When the % of ETFs advancing over 10-days falls below 45%, as it has in the chart below, it is a bearish indication.
 
 
It’s just another worrisome indication that the market is not healthy. That plus the bearish indications in other indicators continue to prevent me from adding to the stock portfolio. On the other hand, I haven’t gone to a bearish positioning in my portfolio because there are still some indicators that suggest markets are not headed into a bear-market. It could still happen, but I am not seeing the signs now.
 
As we have noted before, there were signs at the top that suggested declines would be less than 10%.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Existing Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (NAR)
“Existing-home sales increased by 1.7% month-over-month in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report…Affordability improved for the eighth consecutive month, according to NAR’s Housing Affordability Index—increasing to 117.6 in February from 117.1 in January and 103.1 a year ago. This marks the highest level since March 2022.” Report at…
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 6781.
-VIX fell about 2% to 24.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.156% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
There was no follow-thru from yesterday’s big reversal  Apparently investors remain worried about inflation and jobs.  Both recent data sets have been below expectations.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; the optimistic words coming from Trump that the war was close to conclusion are not borne out by U.S. actions – today was the biggest bombardment yet.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The image is a bar chart depicting the momentum percentile rank of various ETFs, with SPY, IWM DVY XLI, XLY, XLE, XLF, IBB, XLV, ITA, XLK, XLB, XLU, and IEFA SCHE being compared, showing their performance relative to each other. AI-generated content may be incorrect.
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

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Monday, March 9, 2026

Trump Ends War? … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
FBI OBTAINS ARIZONA ELECTION RECORDS (CNBC)
(TRUMP STILL CORRUPTING THE DOJ AND THE FBI)
“The Arizona state Senate’s president said a federal grand jury issued a subpoena for records of the Senate’s audit of 2020 election results in Maricopa County, which President Donald Trump lost that year, contributing to his loss of the state to former President Joe Biden.” Story at…
My cmt: Trump’s witch-hunt on the “stolen-election” fantasy is reaching new heights of foolishness. The Arizona Republicans did their own recount in 2021 and actually found a few more votes for Biden. Here’s a news article from 2021…
 
“This past Friday, September 24, [2021] the result of the so-called “audit” of the election results in Maricopa County by the Republican Majority in the Arizona Senate was finally announced…the Arizona Senate’s contractor Cyber Ninjas ultimately reported that President Biden had won the county and found no evidence of fraud.” Story at…
 
 
JOBS AT RISK FROM AI
 
IRAN WAR COULD BRING DOWN ECONOMIES OF THE WORLD (Fortune)
“This will bring down the economies of the world,” Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister and CEO of its state-owned energy company, told the Financial Times on Friday. “If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted. Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher.” Story at…
My cmt: Maybe not. See below…
 
TRUMP SIGNALS IRAN WAR IS NEAR AN END (CNBC)
“The S&P 500 made a comeback from earlier losses on Monday after President Donald Trump said the war against Iran could be reaching its end.” Story at…
 
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6796.
-VIX fell about 14% to 25.50.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.103% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -17 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.

 

Today there was a bullish outside reversal pattern on the charts.
“A Bullish Outside Reversal is a two-day technical analysis candlestick pattern that signals a potential reversal of a downtrend, indicating that buyers (bulls) have taken control from sellers (bears). It occurs when the current session's price range completely engulfs the previous session's range, often appearing as a Bullish Engulfing pattern” – Investopedia.
 
We didn’t need an indicator to tell us there was a big reversal higher. The swing from low to high was over 2.5%. My indicators obviously don’t foresee news and that’s what drove today’s reversal. In a “normal” correction (not a news-driven event) I usually call bottoms by looking at specific market internal improvement as the S&P 500 tests a prior low. In this instance, we can look for rapid indicator improvement, especially in breadth, but that may not give us a timely buy-signal if it occurs.
 
Given the news, and the reversal, it would appear that it’s time to buy. I’m already fully invested, but I may add a trading position in SSO. Let’s see how tomorrow goes. Futures are down as I write this and that’s not confirming a bottom.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but there were optimistic words coming from Trump and that could lead to a turn-around and maybe it was today. We do need to keep in mind that the weakness in markets was there long before the recent events in Iran. I’ll be watching indicators to see if they get more optimistic.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)


My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 


My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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Friday, March 6, 2026

Payroll Report … Retail Sales / Unemployment Rate … Fed Beige Book … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
FED BEIGE BOOK (WSJ)
The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book report indicates a steady economy with persistent inflation, a stable labor market, and policy uncertainty.” Story at…
 
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (CNBC)
“The U.S. economy lost jobs in February, a month marred by severe winter weather and a strike at a major health-care provider… Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 for the month, compared with the estimate for 50,000…February marked the third time in the past five months that payrolls declined…the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%” Story at…
 
RETAIL SALES (AP News)
“American consumers pulled back their spending to start 2026, extending the malaise in retail sales that began late last year.
Retail sales fell 0.2% in January, following a flat reading in December…Excluding business at gas stations and auto dealers, retail sales rose 0.3% in January…” Story at…
 
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.3% to 6740.
-VIX rose about 24% to 29.49.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was unchanged at 4.138% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 21 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -17 (17 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication. Danger Will Robinson.
 
The markets fell below another level of support today (6800).
 
We picked up another bull indicator today (Bollinger Bands) so now we have a total of four. The Bollinger Band indicator is oversold, but RSI is not, so I’ll ignore this indicator. I use Bollinger Bands and RSI together. Even if RSI was confirming Bollinger Bands, I wouldn’t be buying on two indicators. We need to see volumes falling as the market falls since that would suggest selling may be winding down. One sign we sometimes see at bottoms is a big move down that triggers my Panic Indicator. It is based on a statistical analysis of market moves. So far, we haven’t seen any bottom signs other than Bollinger Bands. They can signal well before a bottom.
 
There were signs at the top back in January that a correction, if it occurred, would be 10% or less. Earnings have been good and that supports the “small-correction” thesis, but there are no guarantees.
 
As of Friday, the S&P 500 is only 3.4% below its all-time high. No panic yet although there isn’t much room for optimism.
 
The 200-dMA of the S&P 500 is 6582, about 2.5% below today’s close.  Another level of support is 6539, the 20 November low. My guess is that the S&P 500 will drop to its 200-dMA around the 6550-6570 level. It could certainly go lower and a retest of the November low wouldn’t be a surprise. The April 2025 low is around 5000; let’s hope we don’t go there.
 
Some of the weakness is now due to the news (war). Thus, we could have a sudden reversal higher if there is good news. Conversely, if hostilities go on much longer or there is bad news in the progress of those hostilities, markets could easily drop below the 200-dMA.  It seems like a correction of only 5.9% (3.4% so far +2.5% down to the 200-day) is too small given the unknowns and the rapid rise in oil prices we have seen so far.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; I am not expecting a crash, but it’s a worry. Let’s check Monday. It may be time to get more conservative in the portfolio.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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