“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
I was talking to an acquaintance the other day. He said today’s
socialist politicians were “socialist light.” These days, people believe what
they believe. There was no point in arguing, but I suggested he read the
Democratic Socialist of America (DSA) website; I’m sure he didn’t. The
following is taken from their website. It speaks for itself.
WHAT IS DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM? (DSA)
“Capitalism is a system designed by the owning class to
exploit the rest of us for their own profit. We must replace it with democratic
socialism, a system where ordinary people have a real voice in our workplaces,
neighborhoods, and society…We want to collectively own the key economic drivers
that dominate our lives, such as energy production and transportation. We want
the multiracial working class united in solidarity instead of divided by fear.
We want to win “radical” reforms like single-payer Medicare for All, defunding
the police/refunding communities, the Green New Deal, and more as a transition
to a freer, more just life.”
https://www.dsausa.org/about-us/what-is-democratic-socialism/
Under About Us: “We are socialists because we reject an
international economic order sustained by private profit, alienated labor, race
and gender discrimination, environmental destruction, and brutality and
violence in defense of the status quo.”
https://www.dsausa.org/about-us/
Statements from their website:
- “Today is the centenary of Fidel Castro, and the
Democratic Socialists of America recognize the historic significance of both
this day and the man. Fidel was an organizer, a fighter, and endures as a
stalwart symbol of anti-imperialist struggle and self-determination for the
Global South. DSA has a long history of solidarity with the Cuban people, their
revolution, and their self-determination. We choose this historic day to
recommit ourselves to acting in solidarity with the Cuban people and to starkly
opposing Marco Rubio’s genocidal war against the Cuban people and US
imperialism writ large.“
- “DSA recognizes that ICE serves to divide and repress
the working class. In contrast, we stand with the multiracial working class and
understand that only together can we defeat capitalism. Shamefully, Republican
and Democratic politicians have supported this fascistic tool of nakedly racist
class exploitation…We demand the abolition of ICE, and free movement of all
people everywhere!”
- “Democratic Socialists of America calls on Senator
Sanders to take a firm stance against Israeli genocide and call for a permanent
embargo on arms to Israel.”
- “…we know that sea-surface temperatures have continued
to rise year after year due to extractive industries and the capitalist death
cult. Further, the mass death and displacement felt across New Orleans [from
Hurricane Katrina] was directly caused by organized
abandonment of the State at every level of government…The deployment of
Blackwater mercenaries to “protect” storefronts from people attempting to get
food and dry clothes extended the overreach of DHS to make private contractors
money at the expense of working people fighting for their lives.”
My cmt: That’s all I can take. We are electing people
whose goal is to overthrow the United States government.
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7745.
-VIX rose about 7% to 15.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.726%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
We never like to see a chart like this. Down all day with
a close at the low is a worrying sign that may suggest downside, follow-thru
Tuesday. Unfortunately, we didn’t get the up-day that was suggested by the good
market internals Friday. Signals are never always correct.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +11 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed
down, a BEARISH sign.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
RETAIL SALES (CNN)
“Retail sales fell 0.6% in July from the prior month, the
Commerce Department said Friday, down from June’s 0.2% and marking the steepest
drop since May 2025.” Story at…
https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/14/economy/us-retail-sales-july
CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment fell about 8% this August, ending two
consecutive months of improvement. While views of personal finances saw only
minor declines, expected business conditions sank 11% for the short run and 17%
for the long run…Although the early-month weakening in sentiment was pervasive
across various demographic groups, notably large reductions were seen among
older consumers, lower-income consumers, and those without a college degree.”
Report at…
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7786.
-VIX declined about 3% to 14.25.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.692%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +17 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher, a BULLISH sign.
There are almost 3 bull signals for every bear signal –
that very bullish.
Both Retail Sales and Sentiment were disappointing
Friday, but markets didn’t fall far and internals were actually bullish.
Advancing-issues outpaced-declining issues; advancing-volume was ahead of declining-volume;
and new-highs outpaced new-lows. Those numbers would usually result in an
up-day. Since we didn’t get that up-day today, I’d expect a bullish day Monday.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
STUBHUB SPENDS MILLIONS LOBBYING (Hollywood Reporter)
“StubHub’s
lobbying expenses have reached an all-time high in California …The
company’s record spending follows AB 1720, a bill from state assembly member
Matt Haney introduced in February that, if passed, would limit concert ticket
resale prices to no more than 10 percent higher than a ticket’s original
price.” Story at…
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/music/music-industry-news/stubhub-lobbying-spending-concert-ticket-bill-1236664212/
My cmt: StubHub is a ticket resale platform that enables
companies who buy blocks of tickets and resell them. There aren’t many ideas
out of California that I endorse, but this looks like a good idea to me.
PPI (CNBC)
“The producer
price index, a measure of underlying inflation pressures, was
unchanged for the month, below the 0.2% Dow Jones consensus estimate and after
falling 0.1% in June. The June figure was revised from a previously reported
decline of 0.3%.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/13/wholesale-prices-were-flat-in-july-below-expectations-for-0point2percent-increase.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits rose last
week, but layoffs remain at historically healthy levels.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that 209,000
people filed jobless claims last week, up from a revised 200,000 the week
before and higher than the 205,000 forecasters had expected.” Story at…
https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/us-unemployment-claims-rise-remain-healthy-level-135607988
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 7800.
-VIX rose about 0.6% to 14.63.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.647%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 2 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from +13 to +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher, a BULLISH sign.
The S&P 500 made a new, all-time high today, Thursday.
5% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today. That is below the
5-year average for this stat, but it is still high enough that, when combined
with Breadth, it does not suggest a correction in the near future.
Jobs are OK; PPI didn’t surprise; all seems well. More new
highs on the way,
but, the Iran conflict could always surprise markets to
the downside.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
3 BILLION A DAY IN INTEREST (Fortune)
“The government’s nearly $40 trillion national debt is
now costing the Treasury more than $3 billion a day in service payments, according to a new report from the
Congressional Budget Office (CBO)… The latest budget update is further evidence for debt hawks who suggest policymakers
are heading in the wrong direction when it comes to fiscal responsibility:
Deficits totaled $1.8 trillion in the first 10 months of this fiscal year, $169
billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year.
With that information in mind, the CBO updated its
deficit projection for the total fiscal year to $2.1 trillion, $200 billion
more than the deficit projected in February of this year.” Story at…
US
Treasury is paying $3 billion a day in interest on national debt, says the
CBO—having spent $10 billion to prop up the currency of its top lender
CPI (CNBC)
“The consumer
price index, part of the Federal Reserve’s inflation dashboard,
showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.1% during July, according to the
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core CPI
rose 0.2%. On an annual basis, the inflation rates were 3.4% and 2.5%, both
down 0.1 percentage point from June.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/cpi-inflation-report-july-2026.html
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7749.
-VIX declined about 5% to 14.55.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly to 4.697%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +4 to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher, a BULLISH sign.
Nice bullish move in indicators today.
CPI didn’t surprise; all seems well. New highs on the
way.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
xxxxxxxxxx
MORE STOLEN ELECTION RANTING
Since Trump continues to claim the 2020 election was
stolen here’s a little more of my election ranting….
JUDGE TOSSES MAGA SUIT (Alternet)
“One week after President Donald Trump sent FBI agents to seize Fulton County’s 2020 ballots as
part of a criminal probe, a Georgia judge has apparently had it up to here with
Trump-style election deniers. “The 2020 election is over,” said Fulton County
Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney, dismissing Trump-supporters’ lawsuit and effort to
review ballots and materials they allege would prove Trump should have won
Georgia. On top of tossing the suit, the judge ordered the four plaintiffs —
consisting of a treasure hunter and members of a Georgia affiliate of the Tea
Party Patriots — to pay nearly $40,000 to Fulton County and the county Superior
Court clerk’s office for filing the frivolous suit.” Story at…
Judge
throws out MAGA election lawsuit and imposes steep fine
My cmt: Trump continues his “stolen election” lies. I
posted commentary a few weeks ago here…
WHY DO SO MANY PEOPLE AGREE WITH TRUMP THAT THE 2020
ELECTION WAS STOLEN? See... http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2026/07/momentum-trading-dow-stocks-etfs-stock_01290379102.html
Then there’s 2000 Mules movie.
APOLOGY FOR ‘2000 MULES (WSJ)
“The movie “2000 Mules” was supposed to be the definitive
proof that Democrats stole the 2020 election from President Trump. Last week [June
2024] it was quietly retracted. Salem
Media Group, which co-produced this Trumpian fantasy mockumentary,
ceased distribution of the film and issued an apology to Mark Andrews, one
of the Georgia voters depicted as an illegal ballot “mule.”... Salem aims to
shift blame to the film’s purported vote-fraud-fighting heroes. “We relied on
representations made to us by Dinesh D’Souza and True the Vote, Inc.
(‘TTV’) that the individuals depicted in the videos provided to us by TTV,
including Mr. Andrews, illegally deposited ballots,” the company said. “We
have learned that the Georgia Bureau of Investigation has cleared Mr. Andrews
of illegal voting activity in connection with the event depicted.” – WSJ
Editorial staff at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/2000-mules-salem-media-lawsuit-mark-andrews-dinesh-dsouza-2020-election-true-the-vote-1565ace0
“A conservative group has told a Georgia judge that it
doesn't have evidence to support its claims of illegal ballot stuffing during
the 2020 general election and a runoff two months later. Texas-based True the
Vote filed complaints with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in
2021, including one in which it said it had obtained “a detailed account of
coordinated efforts to collect and deposit ballots in drop boxes across metro
Atlanta” during the November 2020 election and a January 2021 runoff.” Story
at...
Conservative
group tells judge it has no evidence to back its claims of Georgia ballot
stuffing (msn.com)
My cmt: The movie, “2000 Mules” is a complete fake. The GBI (Georgia Bureau of Investigation)
stated that the claims of ballot stuffing by True the Vote and the 2000 Mules
movie were not supported by the evidence provided in the movie. The movie
creators were sued by one of the individuals they claimed was stuffing ballots
- they settled out of Court for a “significant” amount as reported by NPR. The
crazy thing is that during the 2020 election, Georgia matched absentee ballot
signatures to registrations and signatures on file. Even if there had been ballot stuffing, the
fake ballots would have been thrown out due to lack of registration and/or
non-matching signatures.
“About one-third of U.S. adults say they believe President Biden was
not legitimately elected president of the United States in 2020, according a
poll released this week [Jan 2024].” - The Hill at...
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4384619-one-third-of-americans-say-biden-election-illegitimate/
My cmt: 20% of Americans are complete idiots for
believing there is a Government/Taylor Swift conspiracy to elect Joe Biden. Now
30% believe the Trump stolen election absurdity. Let’s hope the 20% crazies
fall within the 30% nut-jobs otherwise we’d have to add them together. 50% of Americans can’t be idiots, can they?
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and
realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
THE STOCK MARKET IS DOING SOMETHING OBSERVED ONLY ONCE
BEFORE. HISTORY IS CLEAR ABOUT WHAT COMES NEXT (Motley Fool)
“In the late 1990s, internet companies were soaring. The
CAPE [S&P 500 Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings] ratio
surpassed 40 for the first time in history in January 1999, and a little over a
year later, in March 2000, the dot-com bear market officially began…the CAPE
ratio is climbing yet again. It's remained consistently above 40 since May of
this year, which is only the second time in history that it's stayed above this
threshold.
Now, this doesn't necessarily mean a market crash is
around the corner. After all, 40 is not a magic number that automatically
triggers a bear market. But when the CAPE ratio is this high, it suggests that
stocks are unusually richly valued -- and investors may want to exercise
caution.” Commentary at…
The
stock market is doing something observed only once before. History is clear
about what comes next.
FACTSET EARNINGS INSIGHT (FACTSET – 7 August 2026)
“At this late stage of the earnings season, the (blended)
revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2 is 15.0%. If 15.0% is the actual
growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest revenue growth rate
reported by the index since Q4 2021 (16.1%)…
…All eleven sectors are reporting (or have reported)
year-over-year revenue growth. Five of these eleven sectors are reporting (or
have reported) double-digit revenue growth led by the Energy, Information
Technology, and Communication Services sectors.
…At this late stage of the Q2 earnings season, the
S&P 500 is reporting impressive results, even if one excludes the unusually
large EPS surprises reported by Alphabet and Amazon.com. Overall, both the
percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and
the magnitude of earnings surprises are above recent averages. As a result, the
index is reporting higher earnings for the second quarter today relative to the
end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. In addition, the index
is also reporting its highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate since Q2
2021.” Report at…
https://www.factset.com
> earningsinsight
NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“In spite of natural disasters and some economic
uncertainty, small business owners across the nation are in a slightly upbeat
mood about conditions ahead, according to today’s release of the monthly NFIB Small
Business Optimism Index, which increased 2.4 points in July to 99.8.
A reading above its 52-year average of 98.0 and marking the highest level since
August 2025.” Report at…
https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/optimism-index-u-s-news-ranking-show-the-power-of-good-policies/
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 7728.
-VIX declined about 1% to 15.28.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.694%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +9 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher, a BULLISH sign.
Tuesday, there was another New Hindenburg Omen. “The
Hindenburg Omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large
number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short
time frame.” – Investopedia.
As previously noted, Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great
record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there
is a cluster of Omens. We’ve now seen 3 in the last 4 trading-session, and the 4
in the last 2 weeks. The Short-term Fosback High/Low Logic Index uses a similar
methodology and it issued a sell signal Tuesday as well.
This may be signaling a retreat back to the lower
trendline or it may be just a fake out. Tomorrow, we get the CPI for July and
that can cause markets to be unsettled. Of course, the conflict in Iran also provides
more confusion as traders try to guess the direction of oil prices.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish, but I may have to slip to a neutral
(or worse) call if indicators continue down. Watching the CPI announcement Wednesday.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
CAN DEMOCRATS RESIST SOCIALISM (WSJ-Excerpt)
“The official DSA [Democrat Socialists of America]
platform is truly Bolshevik. It calls for “public ownership” of large
corporations and “essential industries,” “aggressive wealth taxes,” defunding
the “Department of War,” “publicly owned social housing,” abolishing police and
prisons “fully,” abolishing the Senate, and making the Supreme Court and
president subordinate to Congress. Its promise of a “classless” “world without
war or poverty” is in keeping with the honeyed vows of failed socialist
experiments through history, all of which ended in one-party dictatorship…That
Mr. El-Sayed [DSA winner of the Michigan Senate Democrat primary] won only
narrowly in a Democratic primary is proof that many Democrats are crying out
for a noncrazy version of the El-Sayed energy. If Democratic leaders hope to
save their party from a socialist takeover, they’ll have to find a backbone to
do it themselves. No one is coming to save them.” – Kimberley Strassel, Opinion
Columnist, Potomac Watch, The Wall Street Journal. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/can-democrats-resist-socialism-20092dff
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 7753.
-VIX rose about 4% to 15.46.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.705%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +17 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher, a BULLISH sign.
McClellan Oscillator turned negative, but not by much.
This is a breadth indicator. Most of the other breadth indicators are bullish.
Monday, there was another New Hindenburg Omen.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator
that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market
instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship
that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market
conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and
lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being
correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of
Omens. We’ve seen 2 in the last 3 trading-session, but only the 3 in the last 2 weeks. The Short-term Fosback High/Low Logic Index uses a similar
methodology and it is very close to issuing a sell signal. These indicators,
and a couple of the other bearish ones, are based on 52-week, New-High/New-low
data.
The Smart Money indicator is bearish.
While there are some bearish signs, at this point, bull
signs still outpace bear signs by 2 to 1 so no point in getting too worried.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m remain bullish, watching markets climb the wall of
worry.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
