Navigate the Stock Market

Thursday, May 14, 2026

Retail Sales … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

From a Facebook meme…
A beautiful woman said, “Hi” to me at the grocery store.
Me: Do we know each other?
Her: I think you’re the father of one of my kids!
Me: OMG! Are you one of the strippers from my Bachelor Party?!
Her: No, I am your son’s teacher.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

HIGH YIELD BONDS FLASH WARNING (McClellan Publications)

“The daily Advance-Decline (A-D) Line for high yield corporate bonds is making a bearish divergence versus the SP500. This is a concern because it conveys a message saying that there are liquidity problems…This is not a trend change "signal". It is just a warning of trouble, and one which could get rehabilitated. It will bear watching in the days ahead, especially as the calendar now transitions into the worst 6 months of the year.” - Tom McClellan, Editor, The McClellan Market Report. Analysis at…
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/high_yield_bonds_flash_warning/

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans filing for jobless aid rose last week but remains historically low despite the economic uncertainty caused by the war in Iran. U.S. applications for unemployment benefits for the the week ending May 9 rose by 12,000 to 211,000…” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-b57b326ca4c4b04cf3881e80d5a48a90

RETAIL SALES (CNN)
“Retail sales climbed 0.5% in April from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Thursday, down from March’s 1.6% and marking the third consecutive monthly increase.” Story at…
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/14/economy/us-retail-sales-consumer-spending-april
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 improved about 0.8% to 7501.
-VIX declined about 3% to 17.26.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.483% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
SSO – Sold 5/14/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +7 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed lower, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

Regular readers know that I read Paul Schatz’s blog at Heritage Capital with some regularity. Because of Paul, I have been following a “possible” indicator (It’s not in my 50-indicator system yet), Junk minus S&P 500 Spread. Here’s the current chart showing a trend similar to the one indicated by Tom McClellan’s “divergence” in the Advance-decline lines of Junk bonds and the S&P 500 Index (above). Junk Bonds act like stocks so when there is divergence it can be a signal that many follow. In my chart below, falling spread (Green line) indicates trouble.

We did not get another Hindenburg Omen today – that’s good, but the Omen remains in effect for 30-days except when the McClellan Oscillator is positive.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. We saw three, Monday thru Wednesday.

The S&P 500 made a new, all-time, high today (Wednesday). 132 issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week-highs today; that is below the 5-year average for this stat, but high enough to avoid trouble. Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, is ok too; we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon. Since the S&P 500 recently had a 9% correction, the likelihood of another seems unlikely, so that’s one reason I’m guessing 3-5%. Even 5% may be too high, given the bullish mood of investors.

I sold my SSO position Thursday, because I got a top-signal, mid-day on Thursday. I posted a discussion on the reasons earlier.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish, but indicators suggest that we may see a short-term retreat of 3-5%.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Short Term Top?

Top Signals warned of a Top at mid-day. The chart below is a plot of Top / Bottom signals; it was -6 (Top Warning) at today’s high. If the S&P 500 closes below 5717 there won’t be a top-warning in my system. Wall Street is watching the same thing I am – the Index pulled back when the Bollinger Bands became overbought around noon.

This doesn’t have to be a major top. Since we have seen good breadth at tops recently, this does not look like a major top. I expect a 3-5% normal retreat.

If the S&P 500 closes below 5717 today, perhaps the index will continue higher. For me, I am selling SSO since I suspect the close today might be “close enough.” I don’t like holding leveraged positions when a pullback of any amount is anticipated or suggested.

Short-term trading is impossible, they say, so who knows if this will work out. I do know that it is never wrong to take profits.

Wednesday, May 13, 2026

PPI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

…Only in California.
From Las Vegas Review-Journal at…
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

DEMOCRATS REDISTRICTING OUTBURST (WSJ-Excerpt)
“The most bizarre aspect of the left’s reaction to their recent gerrymandering setbacks is that they claim to be shocked and surprised. Yet the U.S. Supreme Court has been moving for years to tighten the Voting Rights Act, and its recent decision in Louisiana v. Callais (reining in racial gerrymanders) had been predicted since oral arguments in October. Virginia Democrats were separately warned last fall—by Republicans and legal scholars—that they had missed the window to amend the state constitution, which would have been necessary to impose the new map lawfully—which is exactly what the Virginia Supreme Court ruled last week. Liberal shock over the twin rulings is either feigned or obtuse….
…The same left that is beating up the U.S. Supreme Court is also begging it to intervene on its behalf. Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones on Monday filed an emergency appeal [with laughable misspellings on the cover page] asking the Supreme Court to invalidate the Virginia Supreme Court decision on grounds that the state court “overrode the will of the people.” This case is going nowhere fast, since the Virginia Supreme Court ruled that the process Democrats used to redistrict violated the state constitution—and the U.S. Supreme Court is typically loath to tell a state high court how to interpret its own constitution. So why bother with the emergency request? The cynical take is that this too is about politics—that Democrats are banking on getting turned down by the justices, a rejection they’ll use to pile on complaints that the high court is partisan and stacked against them…” – Kimberly Strassel, WSJ Editorial Board.
My cmt: The Virginia Supreme Court “overrode the will of the people?” The Democrats objected to having the Court rule before the referendum thus wasting $83-million spent by both parties on ads and about $5-million in taxpayer money to conduct the referendum.

RECESSION PLAYBOOK IS BROKEN (Markets Insider)
“Torsten Sløk, the top economist at Apollo Global Management… recently revealed in a blog post that he thinks the next recession will be different, mainly because of a troublesome fiscal situation facing the US. "Do not expect lower interest rates to bail out valuations." he warned. "The standard recession playbook that growth slows, the Fed cuts, rates fall and multiples expand breaks down when the sovereign borrower is already stretched."…Sløk isn't predicting a recession outright, but he says that whenever one strikes, it will likely be different from previous downturn cycles because the US government will have less wiggle room to respond.” Story at…
A Wall Street chief economist says a key part of the market's recession playbook is broken

IS THIS 1999 ALL OVER AGAIN? (Heritage Capital)
“There has been so much chatter lately that this is a repeat of 1999. It’s not. People are all over Twitter comparing AI to the Dotcom stocks. They’re dead wrong. Other people are forecasting financial Armageddon worse than Dotcom and 2008. That’s laughable.
When I push back on the notion that this is 1999 again, people call me a “perma-bull” or tell me that I am not analyzing it correctly. For decades I have said that bubbles are generational. The word itself is the most overused word in investing. I can’t go a single day without people declaring that something is a bubble. Add in the word “crash” and you have most letter writers two favorite words. This is a bubble. That was a crash. Tell you what; these people are clueless. They have no idea what they’re doing. It’s just clickbait and nonsense…
…Investing money during bubbles or parabolic advances is really, really difficult. It is so easy to say, “just hang on”! In real time, it is very tough. I learned later in my career to always prune position size during behavior like this. People don’t pay me to buy the bottom in size and try to hold for every last cent. They pay me good money to try and responsibly manage their financial life which includes their portfolio.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at…
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/is-this-1999-all-over-again-semiconductors-partying-big-time/

PPI (CNN)
“PPI, a measure of wholesale inflation, increased in April to 6% on an annual basis from 4% in March, well exceeding economists’ expectations. On a monthly basis, the index increased 1.4%...It’s also the second-largest monthly gain dating back to the index’s inception in 2010.

Story and charts from CNN at…
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/13/economy/us-ppi-wholesale-inflation-april

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 improved about 0.6% to 7444.
-VIX declined about 0.9% to 17.83.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly to 4.467% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
SSO – Added 5/7/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +6 to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

As noted in the above article, today’s PPI report was bad. There is now about a 40% chance of a Fed rate-hike by the Fed at the December meeting according to the CME Fed Watch tool at…
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
There is no chance of any rate-cuts this year.

Wednesday there was a third Hindenburg Omen in a row.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. The short-term Fosback High-Low Logic Index uses a similar method of analysis. It is very close to issuing a sell-signal.

RSI is overbought along with several other top-signals. I still have not seen enough top-indicators to call a top. Bollinger bands are still not overbought. If both Bollinger Bands and RSI were overbought, that would suggest a top warning.

As a sign of good news, Breadth improved over 2-week and 5-month timeframes so that is not an issue at present.

The S&P 500 made a new, all-time, high today (Wednesday). 110 issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week-highs today; that is below the 5-year average for this stat, but high enough to avoid trouble. Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, is ok too; we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon. Concerns remain though.

I almost sold my SSO position Wednesday, because today’s internals were weak, but Indicators were not falling. Further, Bollinger Bands still have not signaled overbought, so I resisted the urge to sell.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish, but I expect that I’ll get a top warning if Bollinger Bands become overbought. A 1% up-day would probably give that warning, assuming RSI remains overbought.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

CPI … Business Optimism … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

CPI (CNBC)
“Prices that consumers pay for a wide range of goods and services increased at a faster-than-expected pace in April, as another burst in energy prices raised further concerns about inflation’s impact on the U.S. economy.
The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, putting the one-year pace at 3.8%...the core CPI increased 0.4% and 2.8%, respectively…”

Story and charts at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.html

NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
"The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.1 points in April to 95.9, below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the second consecutive month…“Inflationary pressures continue to be a challenge for Main Street,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While small business optimism is currently fragile, the benefits of the Working Families Tax Cut Act should start to feed into the private sector over the next few months.” …As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, the NFIB Small Business Employment Index fell 1.2 points from March to 100.4. This decline is indicative of weakening in the labor market, though the level still suggests balance.” Report at…
https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-remains-below-average-but-stable-5/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7401.
-VIX rose about 2% to 17.99.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.465% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
SSO – Added 5/7/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was flat, a NEUTRAL sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

There was a Hindenburg Omen yesterday.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. So far, we’ve seen just one. The short-term Fosback High-Low Logic Index uses a similar method of analysis. It is not issuing a sell.

Breadth is falling and again is issuing a warning signal - over the last 2 weeks, and the last 5 months, more issues on the NYSE have gone down than have gone up.

I’ll consider selling my SSO position Wednesday if conditions continue to decline.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, May 11, 2026

Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“Chief Justice Roberts a couple of years ago famously said: ‘We don’t have Obama judges, and Biden judges, and Trump judges. We just have judges.’ So I would reject the label of a conservative justice, but I would say that I’m an originalist justice… I view myself as bound to apply the text of the Constitution—as I was saying, you know, I’m bound to apply the text of statutes—and to leave more things to the democratic process, that unless the Constitution speaks to it, then I think change should come through the ratification process. Change should come from the people.” - Amy Coney Barrett, Justice Supreme Court.

“If Abigail Spanberger and Virginia Democrats had paid attention my October 2025 AG’s Opinion that made clear this scheme was unconstitutional and illegal, they could have saved more than $70 million, countless headaches, and months of obnoxious television ads defending the indefensible. Instead, they ignored the law, wasted taxpayer money on running a special election, and dragged Virginians through a completely avoidable mess,” - General Jason Miyares, former Virginia Attorney General commenting on the failed Virginia Gerrymandering that was rejected by the Virginia Supreme Court.

UNEQUAL BATTLE BETWEEN NEW YORK MAYOR ZOHRAN MAMDANI AND CITADEL CEO KEN GIRFFIN (WSJ-excerpt)
“In a video, the mayor complained that “rich” owners of second homes in his city don’t pay their fair share, pointing to “this penthouse, which hedge-fund CEO Ken Griffin bought for $238 million.”
Citadel in 2022 moved its headquarters from Chicago to Miami, but it still maintains a large New York presence—which made it a daft target to pick. The hedge fund’s team members have paid nearly $2.3 billion in city and state taxes in the past five years, while Citadel is deciding whether to redevelop a Park Avenue office that would create 15,000 permanent Midtown Manhattan jobs…
…“When we moved from Chicago, there was a debate between New York and Miami. It’s unquestionably true that we made the right choice,” he said. “And now what the mayor of New York has made clear to my partners, and principally my New York partners… is that we need to double down on our bet in Miami. Because we want to be in a state that embraces business, that embraces education, that embraces personal freedom and liberty, and that embraces people having an opportunity to live the American dream. And a dream of earned success, not a dream of redistributive handouts that leave people dependent on government for their lives and their livelihoods in a way that takes away dignity and honor.” - Kimberley A. Strassel, member of the editorial board for The Wall Street Journal. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-red-blue-economic-divide-7868847d

ARE WE RELIVING THE LAST MONTH OF 1999 (CNBC)
“Stocks are not up or down because of jobs or consumer sentiment,” Burry [Michael Burry of “Big Short fame] wrote. “They are going straight up because they have been going straight up. On a two letter thesis that everyone thinks they understand... Feeling like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble.”
Burry compared the recent trajectory of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) with the run-up that preceded the collapse of technology stocks in March 2000.” – Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/08/michael-burry-says-the-market-today-feels-like-the-last-months-of-the-1999-2000-bubble.html

EXISTING HOME SALES (RTTnews)
“After reporting a sharp pullback by U.S. existing home sales in the previous month, the National Association of Realtors released a report on Monday showing existing home sales rebounded by much less than expected in the month of April. NAR said existing home sales crept up by 0.2 percent to an annual rate of 4.02 million in April after plunging by 2.9 percent to a revised rate of 4.01 million in March.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3650185/u-s-existing-home-sales-rebound-much-less-than-expected-in-april.aspx

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7413.
-VIX rose about 7% to 18.38.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.412% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
SSO – Added 5/7/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 made a new, all-time, high today (Monday). 140 issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week-highs today; that is below the 5-year average for this stat, but high enough to avoid trouble. Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, is ok too; we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon. Concerns remain though.

As noted yesterday, the S&P 500 has gotten too far ahead of breadth-measures. Bollinger Bands are very close to overbought and RSI is elevated too. These signals will swing my top indicators to a short-term, top-warning if the S&P 500 rises by about 1% Tuesday. That would signal that a 3-5% decline is likely. I will sell leveraged positions when I get a top-warning.

I’ll wait for indicators to improve before I add more stock positions. If we do get a 3-5% decline, it will be time to buy-the-dip.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, May 8, 2026

Employment … Michigan Sentiment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

VIRGINIA GERRYMANDERING OVERTURNED (Axios)
“The Virginia Supreme Court overturned the results of the state's redistricting referendum, which voters narrowly approved last month…The new map would have been in effect for the November midterms and was expected to shift the state's congressional split from 6-5 favoring Democrats to 10-1…the high court ruled that Virginia's "general election" includes the early voting period, not just Election Day. That violation "incurably taints" the referendum and invalidates the vote, per the ruling.”
https://www.axios.com/local/richmond/2026/05/08/virginia-supreme-court-redistricting-vote-decision
My cmt: As we predicted, the referendum for redistricting was held too late. Further, the wording was absurdly mis-leading: "Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia's standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?" The Democrats thought it was ok to take away representation from half of the state’s population. It’s always disappointing to see a clearly illegal move decided by a close vote in court. 6-5? What were the 5 thinking?
Yeah, I know - It was all about Trump. There are other ways to counter Trump without screwing our fellow Virginians. Here’s a map of the referendum’s vote results.

DEMOCRATS WANT TO REFORM SUPREME COURT
“Democrats are calling for reforms to the Supreme Court again after a pivotal decision from the high court weakened the Voting Rights Act…” Video at…
Democrats renew calls to reform Supreme Court as trust in high court plummets in new poll | Watch
VICTORY FOR VOTING RIGHTS (WSJ)
“To hear the critics tell it, the Supreme Court on Wednesday gutted the 1965 Voting Rights Act and made it harder for racial minorities to vote. It did no such thing. A 6-3 majority in Louisiana v. Callais took a large step toward ending the partisan abuse of race to carve up Congressional districts in a way that violates the Constitution…” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/lousiana-v-callais-supreme-court-voting-rights-act-samuel-alito-4f060bdb?mod=article_inline
“For decades we disagreed with [Supreme] Court rulings when progressives held sway, but we never called the Court illegitimate. But now that the left has lost the Court as a backup legislature for its policy goals, the institution is supposedly broken. Tell us again who is the threat to democratic institutions?” – WSJ Editorial Board.

DEBT HEART ATTACK COMING (Fortune via msn)
“Dalio’s fiscal warning remains as stark as ever. The U.S. currently spends roughly $7 trillion annually while collecting about $5 trillion in revenue—a gap that has the federal government paying billions every week in debt service and has left the country carrying debt approximately six times its income. He likens the situation to “plaque building up” in an artery: no heart attack yet, but the nation’s financial “MRI” suggests one is coming if spending isn’t curtailed.
(In fact, Dalio understated how much the U.S. pays in interest each week: The Peter G. Peterson Foundation reports the U.S. paid $970 billion in interest in 2025, with the CBO projecting $1.039 trillion in 2026—working out to roughly $19 billion–$20 billion per week.)
The most likely outcome, in Dalio’s view, is a stagflationary spiral reminiscent of the 1970s, in which the Federal Reserve is eventually forced to print money to cover its obligations. “My grandchildren and great-grandchildren not yet born are going to be paying off this debt in devalued dollars…” Story at…
Ray Dalio: The ‘heart attack’ of America’s debt crisis is just the beginning of a ‘great turbulence’ that will reshape the country

EMPLOYMENT REPORT (NBC News)
“The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, a sign that the labor market retained its resiliency even in the face of a global energy shock triggered by the U.S. war with Iran. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%.” Story at…
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/april-jobs-report-iran-war-pressure-rcna344166
My cmt: 200,000 jobs-created was once considered a minimum necessary to allow for young people entering the work force.

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April’s reading and comparable to the trough reached in June 2022… consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall. Year-ahead inflation expectations softened a touch from 4.7% last month to 4.5% this month.” Report at…
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7399.
-VIX rose about 0.6% to 17.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.360% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
SSO – Added 5/7/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +8 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 made a new, all-time, high today (Friday). 110 issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week-highs today; that is below the 5-year average for this stat, but reasonably high enough to avoid trouble. Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, is ok too; we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon. There are concerns though.

The S&P 500 has gotten too far ahead of breadth-measures and the Smart Money is overbought. Bollinger Bands are very close to overbought and RSI is elevated too. These signals could swing my top indicators to a short-term, top-warning and signal about a 3-5% decline. I will sell leveraged positions when I get a top-warning. A 5% decline in the S&P 500 would result in a 10% loss in SSO. I’d rather avoid that.

I’ll wait for indicators to improve before I add more stock positions. If we do get a 3-5% decline, it will be time to buy-the-dip.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)