“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
IRAN HEATS UP AGAIN (CNN – 7:41pm)
“The US military has launched
strikes “against multiple targets in Iran,” US Central Command
said in a statement. It framed the latest operation as in response to “Iran’s
unwarranted and continued aggression.” Tehran’s response: Iran’s military
said the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to all vessels “effective
immediately”… Story at…
CPI (Fox Business)
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Wednesday
that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how
much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.5% from a
month ago and is 4.2% higher than a year ago. The annual figure is the highest
since April 2023…The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Wednesday that
the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how
much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.5% from a
month ago and is 4.2% higher than a year ago.” Story at…
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 1.6% to 7267.
-VIX rose about 12% to 22.22.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.568%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from
-6 to -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication.
I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on
the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations declined, a BEARISH sign that
is more important than the daily numbers.
Bollinger Bands are oversold, but RSI is not. RSI is close
to oversold. When both Bollinger Bands and RSI are oversold, investors may
decide this decline has gone far enough. I don’t know. I have several other
indicators still giving top-warnings: (1) Breadth vs the S&P 500 (2) Money
Trend (3) Fosback HI/Low Logic Indicator. We’ll have a battle of the indicators
if those three remain bearish when Bollinger Bands and RSI are bullish.
Around noon, today’s breadth was looking positive (more
advancers than decliners) and the McClellan Oscillator was positive. I was planning to sell my QLD position, but I
never like to sell when breadth is improving, but that didn’t work out today. Breadth
collapsed in the afternoon along with a lot of my indicators.
Breadth remains weak. Over the last 10-days, more issues
have gone down on the NYSE than have gone up. In addition, I have an indicator
that compares breadth to the S&P 500; the Index is too far ahead of breadth
so, it too is bearish.
The S&P 500 has fallen 3.1% from last week’s all-time
high. The S&P 500 is 0.7% above its 50-dMA and 5.7% above its 200-dMA. The 50-day is usually around the lower trend
line and that’s a likely spot where this weakness will end.
Since I think we are close to an end of this decline, I’ll
probably wind up holding trading positions a bit longer. I can always sell the
positions; take the tax-loss and replace them with other issues that may
produce similar gains when indicators improve.
Could this be the start of a big decline? That’s always
possible, but we saw good breadth at the top so I don’t see a big decline on
the horizon. Data at the top suggested that if we did see a decline, it would
be less than 10%.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish in the short-term, but I suspect we are
closer to a bottom than the top. We’ll see.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
