Navigate the Stock Market

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

GDP … PCE Prices … Durable Goods … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

“Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is simply the total amount of spending in an economy. GDP, as currently measured, does not distinguish between “good” spending and “bad” spending. GDP does not distinguish between consumption spending and investment spending. GDP also does not distinguish whether spending is generated by existing wealth, by going into debt temporarily, or by going into debt permanently. In this world, every dollar spent on education or new means of production, is counted the same as every dollar spent on epic bachelor parties and video games.” – Michael Lebowitz, Real Investment Advice

GDP (WSJ)
“The U.S. economy grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2026, the Commerce Department said in an updated estimate published Wednesday, unchanged from the initial report published last month.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-2q-gdp-growth-unchanged-at-1-5-in-second-estimate-9358397e

PCE PRICES (CNBC)
“Prices consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose slightly in July, according to the Federal Reserve’s main inflation gauge. The personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed uses as its preferred forecasting tool, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.7% [slightly higher than forecast] ...stripping out volatile food and energy costs, core PCE posted respective gains of 0.2% and 3.3%, in line with forecasts.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/26/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-shows-core-prices-rose-3point3percent-annually-in-july.html

DURABLE GOODS (WSJ)
“Demand for U.S. durable goods jumped more than expected in July, according to data published by the Commerce Department.
Total orders for durable goods—which comprise goods meant to last three years or more—increased in July by 1.1%...” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-durable-goods-orders-rose-more-than-expected-in-july-3d0e2c90

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped about a point to about 0.3% to 7676.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 15.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.647% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Indicators reversed back down, but the news was good after the close.

Nvidia reported earnings as expected – 100% gain in revenues – unbelievable! The markets liked the news and NVDA was up 4% in after-hours trading. NASDAQ futures are up 1% as I write this, so I think this is the fuel needed for markets to move higher and make new-highs.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral until we see indicators improve.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)


My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

New Home Sales … Consumer Confidence … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^® decreased by 0.8 points to 89.4 (1985=100) in August, down from 90.2 in July…’Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,’ said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board…Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were mildly positive. Perceptions of the current labor market improved, reversing three months of moderate decline. Looking ahead, consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and the labor market over the next six months. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.’” Report at…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/

NEW HOME SALES (Realtor.com)
“Prices for newly built homes have hit their lowest level in five years, as homebuilders continue to grapple with weak buyer demand, newly released data shows…Meanwhile, contract signings for newly built homes plunged 10.5% in July from the prior month…The Census Bureau's latest new residential construction report found that single-family housing starts in July were down 9.9% from June and 15.7% lower than a year earlier.” Story at…
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/new-home-prices-falling-sales-census-july-2026/

RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING (Richmond Federal Reserve)
“Fifth District manufacturing activity changed little in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased only slightly…Manufacturing firms remained relatively optimistic about the next six months, with the future indexes for shipments and new orders remaining firmly in positive territory and the employment expectations index rising to 20 in August from 15 in July.” Report at…
https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/business_surveys/manufacturing

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7677.
-VIX slipped about 2.5% to 15.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.633% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -8 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Breadth improved today; the McClellan Oscillator is now just barely negative. New-high/New Lows weren’t strong, but they were good enough to pull up some indicators.

The Index is 1.7% above its 50-dMA as of today’s close. It still seems like there is enough market angst to send the S&P 500 down to its 50-day level. The chart seems to be suggesting otherwise – the Index is drifting higher on the chart.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, but watching closely. Indicators are not currently suggesting it’s time to panic; but according to some, the bond market is.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, August 24, 2026

National Activity Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
Not much different than Friday’s note except that indicators declined:

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -1 to -8 (8 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Another one Monday! There have been 6 Hindenburg Omens in the last 13 sessions. In addition, the short-term Fosback Hi/Low Logic Indicator remains bearish as it has been for the last 7 sessions.

Breadth remains weak, but not drastically so. A lot of New-high/New Low indicators are negative including the McClellan Oscillator.

Back in early August, the downturn reversed when the lower Bollinger Band was breached. Now, the lower Bollinger Band on the S&P 500 is 7391, about 3.5% below today’s close. Another level of support for the S&P 500 is its 50-dMA (around the lower trendline).

The Index is 1.4% above its 50-dMA as of today’s close. A big drop, say about 1% or more, would signal a retreat near the lower trendline (and the 50-dMA). That would probably generate some dip buying.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, but watching closely. Indicators are not currently suggesting it’s time to panic; but according to some, the bond market is.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, August 21, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

PLANT SEEDS OF FREEDOM (WSJ Letters)
“Andy Kessler hit the nail on the head when he said that the socialism’s message of free stuff is being poured into the “ears of young, naive, economically illiterate, free-riding, over-degreed” voters (“Viva la DSA Revolution!,” Inside View, Aug. 10).
When professors teach that the capitalist system is a problem and ignore the horrible history of socialism and communist experiments around the world, this is what you get. The message of free stuff for all might be attracting votes, but voters should know it comes at the expense of freedom and economic growth. The U.S. is the best economy on the planet—let’s not permit socialism to undermine it.”
Jack Kent Letter to Editor, WSJ. From…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/plant-the-seeds-of-freedom-5e8326f0?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos21

BOND ROUT WON’T END SOON (WSJ)
“A selloff in global bonds is driving up borrowing costs for governments, businesses and families across the developed world. Wall Street sees no end in sight.
Bond yields are at 19-year highs, and investors are blaming the rout on everything from the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict, which has stoked inflation worries, to the deluge of tech-company bonds vying for debt funds’ cash. They are also anxious about budget deficits and a lack of clarity from a new Federal Reserve chairman…So far, the selloff has been limited to bonds. Stocks are hovering near record highs and corporate earnings are still robust—signs that higher interest payments aren’t squeezing economic growth…’The issue is not so much the rising interest rates,’ said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute. ‘The issue is the deficit. If we can only be concerned about one thing, that one thing should be the 10-year deficit outlook.’” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/bonds-are-getting-hammered-and-wall-street-says-the-rout-wont-end-anytime-soon-895e0ad8?mod=djem10point

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7674.
-VIX declined about 6% to 15.13.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.736% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators Improved from -6 to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Good to see indicators improve, but there are still significant bear signs. There have been 5 Hindenburg Omens in the last 12 sessions. In addition, the short-term Fosback Hi/Low Logic Indicator has been bearish the last 6 sessions.

Breadth is weak but not drastically so. A lot of New-high/New Low indicators are negative including the McClellan Oscillator.

We still can’t say the weakness is over it could be, but I’d like more evidence than just today’s bounce higher.

Back in early August, the downturn reversed when the lower Bollinger Band was breached. Now, the lower Bollinger Band on the S&P 500 is 7325, about 4% below today’s close. That number varies and is likely to decline if markets continue down. Another level of support for the S&P 500 is its 50-dMA (around the lower trendline).

The Index is 1.8% above its 50-dMA as of today’s close. So, the question is; will the dip buyers move in around the lower trendline? Maybe they did today. We’ll see…

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, but watching closely. Indicators are not currently suggesting it’s time to panic; but according to some, the bond market is.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals IMPROVED to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, August 20, 2026

Philly Fed … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-philly-fed-manufacturing-index-rose-to-five-year-high-in-august

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims dropped to 206,000 last week from a revised 212,000 the week before. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out week-to-week ups and downs, ticked up to 204,000 last week from 199,750.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-claims-jobs-economy-layoffs-5d623586cbcf1eeeaa6ee6cc084ed566

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.9% to 7641.
-VIX rose about 8% to 16.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.704% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

We always hate to see these down-day slides into the close.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +5 to -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

While the technical indicators aren’t all that bad, the idea that markets might be reacting to the federal National Debt of more than 40 trillion dollars is frightening. (This is about $400,000 for every taxpayer who actually pays taxes.) Here’s what Mark Sobel, Chief economist and vice chair, Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, had to say on the subject of longer-term bond yields;
“Our massively irresponsible fiscal policy is the root cause of the sustained rise in longer term yields…If the Trump administration wishes to take the pressure off long term yields, it needs to reduce our reckless fiscal deficits. Increasing buybacks is akin to spitting into a gale force wind.”

If he is correct, and it is time to pay the piper, markets will be facing severe trouble. Indicators don’t suggest that now. We’ll have to see how the S&P 500 reacts when it reaches its levels of support.

Back in early August, the downturn reversed when the lower Bollinger Band was breached. Now, the lower Bollinger Band on the S&P 500 is 7325, about 4% below today’s close. That number varies and is likely to decline if markets continue down. Another level of support for the S&P 500 is its 50-dMA (around the lower trendline). The Index is 1.4% above its 50-dMA as of today’s close. So, the question is; will the dip buyers move in around the lower trendline?

Thursday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time,

Bottoms almost always occur on/or near Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms. Today is not likely to have been a short-term bottom; there were no Bottom Indicators flashing “buy.”

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, but watching closely. Indicators are not currently suggesting it’s time to panic; but according to some, the bond market is.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, August 19, 2026

FED Minutes … Crude Inventories … Treasury Steps into the Bond Market … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

DISENCHANTMENT WITH ISRAEL BEGAN YEARS AGO (WSJ)
“Mr. Galston [“Why Much of America Soured on Israel” (WSJ-Politics & Ideas, Aug. 12)] presents several statistics indicating decreased support among Americans for Israel and places blame on the shoulders of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Yet extreme antipathy for Israel is nothing new. A 2003 poll conducted for the European Commission found that 59% of surveyed citizens viewed the world’s only Jewish state as a “threat to world peace.” Not surprisingly, the U.S. placed second (tied with Iran and North Korea). The gulf between perception and reality then and now can’t be blamed on Mr. Netanyahu, nor TikTok or social media, which did not yet exist.
The reason for the overwhelming negative view of the Jews and the Jewish state is, as it has always been, portrayal.” - Eli Litman. Letters to the Editor, WSJ. From…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/disenchantment-with-israel-began-long-ago-1f91f2c5?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos12

CRUDE INVENTORY (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 428.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are matching the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at…
https://ir.eia.gov/secure/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf?Policy=eyJTdGF0ZW1lbnQiOlt7IlJlc291cmNlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9pci5laWEuZ292L3NlY3VyZS93cHNyLyoiLCJDb25kaXRpb24iOnsiRGF0ZUxlc3NUaGFuIjp7IkFXUzpFcG9jaFRpbWUiOjE3ODc3NTA0MDB9LCJEYXRlR3JlYXRlclRoYW4iOnsiQVdTOkVwb2NoVGltZSI6MTc4NzE0OTgwMH19fV19&Signature=Auu3FcwcRJU56tig5rE4EC4iP~MKN3wS1G7eJQ98ys6xI1HfpaFkcKXR~Mi8gs~l-sx8r0i1aC-ynV5OOvdBjjyJDVTPhitMZ1YDBl9t4P4cxw0uaeVfMfGxi4nhUdIyjL45LhYfcyIA~eV~phmMgIuiYQCJYR20r9DgWVbBs2os4b~368jjEdafQhEEt5B~FvQfGsLwqysvdeCQjPXMEbIeOC0x2KuqTzSBdVxayQyH2ss689X2QOiUYgYMfmUW2LXU7uA6AMtiDRwJDkBzZYEfu52GSRfZmUUI4ILyY4-xs27sQtPxJWzKJJqXCRZeVWynJCI0BManBtgnToLSMw&Key-Pair-Id=K26E8B9QMJ2WHX

TREASURY STEADIES THE BOND MARKET (CNBC)
“The Treasury Department said Wednesday it will at least double the level of government debt buybacks in the next few months, targeting the sensitive longer-duration segment of the market. Yields tumbled following the announcement and stock market futures surged.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/treasury-announces-upscaled-buyback-operation-for-longer-term-debt-sending-yields-lower.html
My cmt: It is always a difficult proposition to claim that a specific event propelled the stock market. This time I think the pundits are correct. Bond yields fell; the markets went up.

FEDERAL RESERVE LIKELY TO HIKE IF INFLATION DOESN’T COOL (CNBC)
“Many participants assessed that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline,” stated the summary of the meeting, held July 28-29. “Some participants commented that financial conditions might not currently be sufficiently restrictive to facilitate a return of inflation to 2 percent.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/fed-minutes-july-2026-officials-saw-need-for-rate-hike-if-inflation-doesnt-cool.html
My cmt: Odds are 1 in 3 of a hike in September per CME Group FedWatch at…
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7708.
-VIX declined about 5% to 15.02.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.641% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +1 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Breadth improved today, but the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE is still in negative territory. I won’t worry too much. It was nice to see some improvement in markets (and indicators) today and the Treasury Dept propping up the bond market was good news.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, but hoping markets will improve.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)