Navigate the Stock Market

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Inflation … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

I am too busy today, so here’s an abbreviated post…
…Friday’s post will be late – either Saturday or Sunday.

INFLATION (CNBC)
“Consumers faced escalating prices in March as the Iran war sent oil soaring and created a new level of challenges for the Federal Reserve, according to a batch of reports Thursday that showed economic growth slower than expected and a generational low in layoffs.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, accelerated a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, pushing the 12-month inflation rate to 3.2%...” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/pce-inflation-rate-march-2026.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 7209.
-VIX fell about 10% to 16.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.388% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -1 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

Thursday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. Tops almost always occur on Statistically-significant, up-days, but not all statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. Today could be a short-term top, but there was only 1 top indicator (RSI) that was bearish - not enough to send a strong top-signal.

The S&P 500 made a new high today (Thursday). 143 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is below the 5-year average, but still reasonably high. That’s one measure that shows breadth is ok so we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon

Divergence between the indicators and the S&P 500 in the above chart remains, but the 10-day spread is narrowing suggesting we may get a bullish reversal soon.

It’s still possible that the markets will retrace about half of their gains. That would imply a 5-7% drop from the recent high, but if the 20-day spread of indicator reverses higher, it would suggest that further losses are unlikely.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish.

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

FED Meeting … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

TRAGIC DAY FOR THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC (Quora Digest)
“Yesterday(Monday) was a tragic day for the Islamic Republic and the so-called axis of resistance (Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas). Fu’ad Shokr, the prominent Hezbollah figure, and Ismail Haniyeh, the number one figure of Hamas, were assassinated. Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran proved to what extent the Islamic Republic is vulnerable. Traditionally, Muslims pray for the deceased before burying them. Given the importance of Haniyeh, Khamenei performed his funeral prayer. But his reaction was interesting; he looked around constantly as if a projectile was coming from the sky.” Story at…
https://www.quora.com/?qv_src=email

FED MEETING RESULTS (CNBC)
“An unusually divided Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady as policymakers grappled with the policy impact of persistent inflation and awaited a looming leadership transition at the central bank… the meeting saw a dramatic turn amid a groundswell of officials who opposed messaging that further rate cuts could be ahead. Amid expectations for a routine vote to hold the benchmark funds rate steady, the FOMC instead was split along 8-4 lines, with officials expressing different reasons for their vote.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.04% to 7134.
-VIX rose about 6% to 18.81.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.426% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +6 to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

As noted previously, we can see a clear divergence between the indicators and the S&P 500 in the above chart. For now, I suspect that the markets will retrace about half of their gains. That would imply a 5-7% drop from the recent high.

Another possibility is that the S&P 500 might retest its low of 6344. That alternative is probably less likely since the Index made new highs off the low.

Since I am not expecting declines greater than 10%, I will hold my existing positions and look for a buying opportunity to deploy my cash reserves.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Credit Bubble … Consumer Confidence … Dallas Fed Services … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

VIRGINIA SUPREME COURT REFERENDUM RULING (Newsweek)
“The Virginia Supreme Court dealt Democrats a significant setback on Tuesday, refusing to halt a lower‑court order that bars officials from certifying last week’s redistricting referendum while the justices consider whether to throw out the results entirely. The ruling leaves in limbo a constitutional amendment approved by voters that would install a new congressional map crafted by Democratic lawmakers, which could see Democrats gain as many as 4 seats in the U.S. House.” Story at…
Democrats dealt blow by Virginia Supreme Court after redistricting win

THE CREDIT BUBBLE EVERYBODY’S IGNORING (WSJ – Excerpt)
“Rising defaults in private credit are rattling investors, while apparent fraud by some borrowers has fueled worries about lax underwriting. Investors are rushing to get their money out of funds to avoid getting stuck with big losses. Politicians are calling for—what else?—more regulation.
But private-credit problems pale in comparison to the less-reported risks in federal student loans and mortgages, which could ripple through the economy. The Biden team’s version of extend-and-pretend concealed the cracks for a time, but defaults are rapidly rising on government-backed loans. Taxpayers will inevitably be left holding the bag.” – Allysia Finley, WSJ Editorial Board. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-credit-bubble-everybodys-ignoring-e457c0ae

SOME KIND OF BOND CRISIS AHEAD (CNBC)
“JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday warned that rising government debt levels could trigger a crisis in the bond market, urging policymakers to act before markets force their hand…A bond crisis would likely mean a sudden jump in yields and a breakdown in market liquidity, where investors rush to sell and buyers recede, typically forcing central banks to step in as buyers of last resort…“We haven’t had a credit recession in so long, so when we have one, it would be worse than people think,” Dimon said. “It might be terrible.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/jamie-dimon-bond-crisis-global-debt-risks.html
My cmt: I would expect to see my indicators warn if a crisis were impending.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^® edged up by 0.6 points to 92.8 (1985=100) in April, from 92.2 in March’s upwardly revised reading… “Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month. This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labor market, both current and expected, as well as income expectations, which were slightly more optimistic in April.” Press release at…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/

TEXAS SERVICE SECTOR OUTLOOK ( Dallas Fed)
“Texas service sector activity increased in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, edged up three points to 4.3, suggesting revenue increased slightly… Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen in April, though the indexes were less negative than the prior month. The general business activity index ticked up three points to -9.9, and the company outlook index rose five points to -5.0. Meanwhile, the outlook uncertainty index dipped two points to 24.8 but was still well above the series average of 14.1.” Press release at…
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2026/2604

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7139.
-VIX declined about 1% to 17.83. (The Options players seem less worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.348% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +9 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication, but just barely. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

As noted previously, we can see a clear divergence between the indicators and the S&P 500 in the above chart. We need to keep watching this. It may be that the Index is going to give up some of the recent gains. We could see a 50% retracement where the Index gives up half of its gains. That would imply a 5-7% drop from the recent high. Another possibility is that the S&P 500 might retest its low of 6344. That alternative is probably less likely since the Index made new highs off the low. Neither of these alternatives are indicated yet, but they will be if indicators continue to decline.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, April 27, 2026

Dallas Fed … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +10 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 made a new all-time high Monday. New, all-time highs for the S&P 500 give us an opportunity to check the health of the stock market. Specifically, we look at market breadth to make sure there is plenty of participation across the market.

The S&P 500 made a new high today (Monday). 116 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is below the 5-year average, but still reasonably high. More than 50% of stocks in the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-dMA’s. These stats show breadth is ok so we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon

As noted previously, markets continue higher while the indicators drift down. This diversion is a concern, but with 9 more bullish indictors than bearish, the markets are in decent shape. Until the S&P 500 confirms the indicator downtrend, there is no point in worrying, but I remain somewhat cautious.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, April 24, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers

The Bearish Outside Reversal signal from yesterday is canceled today since the S&P 500 closed above yesterday’s high.

Markets continue to power higher while the indicators drift down. This diversion is a concern, but with 10 more bullish indictors than bearish, the markets are in decent shape. Until the S&P 500 confirms the indicator downtrend, there is no point in worrying, but I remain somewhat cautious.

Here’s an interesting chart that tracks Top and Bottom signals. Buy signals occur when the chart reaches +5; Sell signals are at -6. The current value is -3, but we can see that the chart is better at calling Buy-signals.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, April 23, 2026

Jobless Claims … KC Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

DEBT WARNING – US MAY CEASE TO BE A GREAT POWER (Fortune)
“Interest payments on the U.S. national debt are set to surpass $1 trillion in 2026, some $88 billion a month—equal to spending on defense and education combined… An excess of debt over defense is a violation of Ferguson’s Law, as described by Hoover Institution economic historian Sir Niall Ferguson in a working paper published earlier this year. Ferguson’s Law states that “any great power that spends more on debt servicing than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power. This is because the debt burden draws scarce resources towards itself, reducing the amount available for national security, and leaving the power increasingly vulnerable to military challenge.”
When interest on national debt overtook military spending, it triggered a limit where the US may cease to be a great power, warns Hoover historian

VIRGINIA’S RACE TO THE GERRYMANDER BOTTOM (WSJ)
“The gerrymander race to the bottom escalated on Tuesday as Democrats in Virginia won a narrow victory to redraw their state map to add as many as four Democratic House seats. This is bad news for GOP control of the House in November, but Republicans can also blame President Trump for starting this rolling rock that has now come down on their heads… Barack Obama on Tuesday hailed Virginia for “stand[ing] up for our democracy,” but the vote effectively ends competitive elections for Congress in most of the state. This is why voters don’t take seriously Democratic complaints about GOP threats to democracy… The main accomplishment of this gerrymander free-for-all will be to further polarize the U.S. House. The number of competitive seats in the general election will shrink. Party primaries will increasingly be the only real competition, and that will drive candidates to court the most partisan voters. The result will be more fools and posers like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Jasmine Crockett in Congress.” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/virginia-gerrymander-democrats-house-congress-abigail-spanberger-69bf939b?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
My cmt: I heard a Constitutional expert (Professor Brad Jacob from Regent University) speak on the subject today. He said it was very likely that the Virginia gerrymander election will be nullified by the courts. A District court in Virginia has already ruled it invalid. There are two issues facing the Virginia Supreme Court when it is appealed: (1) The vote was not timed properly – it’s too close to the election in November. (2) The wording of the amendment on the ballot was misleading and confusing.

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits inched up last week but remains within the historically healthy range of recent years. U.S. jobless aid applications for the week ending April 18 rose by 6,000 to 214,000…” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-bf89154a8f200cc53b08b6ce41d787b0

KC FED MANUFACTURING (KC Fed)
“Tenth District manufacturing activity grew further, while expectations for future activity rose slightly from last month. Raw materials prices increased sharply this month, while fewer firms reported increasing their finished product prices…. This month, contacts were asked special questions about changes in energy costs and ability to pass through energy-related costs. Almost all (93%) of firms reported that they have experienced higher transportation costs in the last two months…” - WSJ Editorial Board. Story at…
https://www.kansascityfed.org/surveys/manufacturing-survey/tenth-district-manufacturing-activity-grew-further-in-april/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7110.
-VIX rose about 5% to 19.85.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.333% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +13 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers

Today, Thursday, there was another Bearish Outside Reversal Day. We saw another one Tuesday.
The Bearish Outside Reversal signal remains in place until the S&P 500 closes above the high on the Reversal Day.

“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.

The conflict/war in Iran continues to muddy the stock-market water. With the ceasefire extended by three weeks we may see more gains in the market – it’s anyone’s guess since the market is war-news driven. For now, indicators are slowly falling so I am cautious.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.