Navigate the Stock Market

Monday, July 13, 2026

Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“A conservative Tehran newspaper has published an infographic naming President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and 11 other Western leaders as targets for revenge over the killing of former supreme leader…” Story at…

Iran paper names Trump, 12 others as targets for revenge
My cmt: Seems unlikely that Trump will be able to make a “deal” with Iran’s leadership.

US TO BLOCKADE IRANIAN PORTS (CNN)
“The US military will officially resume its naval blockade of ships going to and from Iranian ports on Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET, US Central Command said Monday.” Story at…
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/13/world/live-news/iran-war-trump
My cmt: Surprised it took so long to reset the blockade.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

SELFIE GENERATION – BABY BOOMERS MISTAKE (WSJ – Excerpt)
“My generation—the baby boomers—made a catastrophic mistake. We watched our parents sacrifice, we struggled to move up, and we vowed our children would have it easier. When that time came, we gave them trophies for showing up. We meant well. But in freeing them of the need to struggle, we deprived them of something essential. We raised a generation insulated from failure, from consequence, from the experience of working for something, failing and trying again.
The result is visible in major American cities, where young voters are electing socialist candidates who spew hatred of those who achieve greatness. These movements aren’t about creating opportunity. They’re about grievance, redistribution and the conviction that your own failures are the result of someone else’s success. It is a politics of envy dressed up as justice.
The hallmark of today’s young generation is the selfie. A photo of yourself, taken and posted for the approval of others. That says everything. And when the world doesn’t deliver the validation young people have been told they deserve simply for existing, the explanation is always the same: The system is rigged, the deck is stacked, someone else has too much…
… We have abandoned the uniquely American idea that you must earn what you get. We need to restore that belief, before the generation we indulged forgets it forever.” - Scott W. Atlas, Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution and special adviser to the president and a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force (2020). Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-selfie-generation-is-the-baby-boomers-mistake-4b75d1d1

BERNIE SANDERS LATEST BAD IDEA – SOCIALISM AT WORK (USA Today)
“On June 18, Sanders introduced legislation in the Senate that would confiscate 50% of the ownership of America’s most successful artificial intelligence companies. By Sanders’ own estimate, his bill would strip $7 trillion out of the private sector through a 50% tax on AI companies’ stocks. The confiscated stocks would be deposited in a government-owned and managed fund, with plans to eventually redistribute a portion of the wealth through $1,000 payments to “everyone in America.” … The damage that Sanders’ proposal would do to the stock markets, Americans’ retirement accounts and the overall economy is mind-boggling.” Story at…
Bernie Sanders' latest horrible idea may wreck your 401(k) | Opinion

STEVE FORBES INTERVIEW - EXCERPT (Fox News)
"First of all, New York City has had a reputation in the past of electing radical candidates, including the allegedly only communist member of Congress back in the late 1940s. So there is that streak there. But more importantly, I think it shows that people, a lot of people, are dissatisfied…
…it's not enough to say, ‘Well, free enterprise gives you more prosperity.’ You also have to put on the plane that free enterprise is moral. It's based on liberty, based on allowing human beings to be creative, or as Lincoln put it, improve your lot in life."
… "Whatever you call it, communism, socialism, extreme leftism, anti-Semitism, it's all the same disease," Forbes said. "Abraham Lincoln put it very well in the 1800s. He said, 'It won't be foreign forces that destroy the United States. It'll be things we do internally.'" Forbes suggested that many incorrectly blame problems on free markets, when they should instead be blaming government policies:
"What happens is when governments start making mistakes and doing things that people don't like and that hurt people's prospects for getting ahead, upsetting society, they blame it on capitalism. They blame it on free markets," he said. "So they help wreck free markets and then say, 'The victim is the cause of it.'"
Prosperity and innovation can only flourish with freedom, Forbes said. While capitalism isn't perfect, it has led to inventions that improve our lives…” Story at…
Steve Forbes backs Trump's Mt. Rushmore warning on communism: 'He's right'

“It was Thomas Edison who brought us electricity, not the Sierra Club. It was the Wright brothers who got us off the ground, not the Federal Aviation Administration. It was Henry Ford who ended the isolation of millions of Americans by making the automobile affordable, not Ralph Nader. Those who have helped the poor the most have not been those who have gone around loudly expressing 'compassion' for the poor, but those who found ways to make industry more productive and distribution more efficient, so that the poor of today can afford things that the affluent of yesterday could only dream about.” - Thomas Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.

“What the welfare system and other kinds of governmental programs are doing is paying people to fail. Insofar as they fail, they receive the money; insofar as they succeed, even to a moderate extent, the money is taken away.” - Thomas Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 7515.
-VIX rose about 14% to 15.03.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.626% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher.,, Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +9 to +4 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

It looks like the Iran news may drive again the stock market train. The fear is that oil prices and/or shortages may do harm to the economy. I don’t have an opinion, so I’ll watch indicators and price action in the stock market.

So far Breadth remains in bullish territory, but we have to be less optimistic.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, July 10, 2026

FED Minutes … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign that smooths daily fluctuations.

The 10-dMA of the indicator spread continues sharply higher. Good news.

Volume was about 30% below the monthly average today on the NYSE. I don’t have an indicator that focuses solely on volume, so interpreting the low volume is guesswork. It may be that traders don’t want to hold stocks over the weekend. A bearish interpretation would be that the markets are running out of buyers. I don’t think that is the case now.

Breadth remains in bullish territory.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, July 9, 2026

Jobless Claims … Existing Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +2 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign that smooths daily fluctuations.

The McClellan Oscillator improved and moved above zero. Life Finance says: “A McClellan Oscillator reading above zero indicates bullish market breadth. It means the short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of advancing stocks minus declining stocks is higher than the long-term EMA, signaling strong buying pressure and positive market momentum.” While that sounds good, we need to put it in perspective. Wednesday was the only day in the past 2-weeks that the Oscillator has been negative. This just reiterates that breadth has been improving.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Indicator Update

Car trouble on the way back from the beach so slim post for Wednesday.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +10 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign that smooths daily fluctuations.

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT

Today’s market action seems to mirror the last 2 months – mostly confused and not making any progress, but indicators have been improving. That’s a good sign, although they slipped slightly today.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign that smooths daily fluctuations.

After flashing a sell signal for the last 3 weeks the Fosback Hi/Low Logic Indicator finally improved to a neutral signal. Like the Hindenburg Omen, this indicator warns when both new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows are elevated.

Micron Technology was down almost 5% today and another 1% after hours. Its trailing PE is now around 21. The PEG Rato is PE divided by Growth Rate. Micron’s PEG Ratio is a miniscule 0.03 while its 5-year PEG Ratio is around 0.2. “Historically, a PEG ratio of 1.0 or less generally suggests that the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings growth. Micron Technology's exceptionally low ratio is primarily driven by its massive, cyclical earnings surge as demand for semiconductor memory in AI and integrated systems remains robust.” – Zachs Investment Research. Investors seem to think a huge amount of Micron’s revenue is going to dry up – they are acting like the AI build-out is going to end soon. I suspect they are over reacting, but I am no expert there.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, although the Iran news doesn’t look good.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, July 6, 2026

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI … Birthright Citizenship … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

SUPREME COURT UPHOLDS BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP
There have been some strange cases in the Supreme Court recently. There have been cases when the ruling should have been 9-0, but liberal justices were opposed; for example, Students for Fair Admission vs Harvard seemed straightforward to me. The Constitution is color blind so it should have been simple to rule against race-based admission standards. Apparently, it wasn’t simple enough; the vote was 6-2 and Jackson recused herself since she is on the board for Harvard. The vote was 6-3 in a similar UNC case. Sotomayor wrote: "Ignoring race will not equalize a society that is racially unequal. What was true in the 1860s, and again in 1954, is true today: Equality requires acknowledgment of inequality." Uh, what? This isn’t 1860 or even 1960. The Constitution is clear and there seemed to be little reason to make race-based decisions in 2023.

Similarly, I expected a 9-0 ruling in the Birthright Citizenship case.

Here’s the 14^TH amendment of the US Constitution:
“All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside…”

Some who are not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the US include foreign diplomats and high-ranking embassy staffs. A diplomat can’t be arrested – an illegal immigrant most certainly can be – they are under our jurisdiction. Off hand, I can’t think of any others. An invading army? It is disappointing to me when the Supreme Court can’t decide a simple case like this 9-0. This time it was the Conservative wing subverting the Constitution. Here’s the gist:

… Trump maintained that the [14^th amendment] provision was meant to apply only to former slaves, but "wasn't meant for the entire world to occupy the United States." That interpretation, however, has not been embraced by the courts or the legal norms of the country for 160 years.
https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5839358/birthright-citizenship-decision-scotus-trump
My cmt: Yes, the Constitution was amended to ensure that children of slaves were citizens, but the language is broader than that, as is its clear intent.

ROBERTS FOR THE MAJORITY:
“Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the court's 6-3 opinion, citing both the colonists' demands for the "rights of Englishmen" as well as the abolitionists lauding of the "ancient and universal" rule of citizenship by birth alone.
"Citizenship, then and now, was the right to have rights — to freely participate in our political community. The Framers of the Fourteenth Amendment extended that promise to 'every free-born person in this land,'" Roberts wrote. "We keep that promise today."
https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5839358/birthright-citizenship-decision-scotus-trump

ALITO DISSENT:
“Alito railed against the majority's ruling in a forceful dissent, arguing the justices misinterpreted the 14th Amendment. He wrote that only people who owe their full allegiance to the United States, and not another country, should automatically receive citizenship at birth…"
Alito warns Supreme Court made 'serious mistake' that could have national security consequences
My cmt: The Constitution doesn’t say anything about “allegiance to the United States.”

THOMAS DISSENT:
"Despite his longstanding endorsement of a 'colorblind' Constitution, Justice Thomas now surprisingly suggests that the Citizenship Clause was a race-conscious remedial measure, relating only to 'freed slaves such as Dred Scott,' and those who shared with them certain characteristics…" - Justice Ketanji Brown.
My cmt: The language is not limited to a remedial measure. In 1868 (when the 14^th amendment was ratified) immigration was open. Does Justice Thomas think that children of immigrants in 1868 shouldn’t have been citizens?

GORSUCH DISSENT
“Gorsuch also wrote a separate brief dissent, in which he appeared to suggest that Trump’s executive order might violate the Constitution as it applies to the children of undocumented immigrants who intend to live in the United States permanently. “If those parents are not domiciled here,” Gorsuch queried, “then where are they domiciled? And if the answer is nowhere,” he continued, “how can we reconcile that conclusion with this Court’s longstanding recognition that every person is domiciled somewhere?” Story at…
https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5839358/birthright-citizenship-decision-scotus-trump
My cmt: I didn’t get the domicile argument.

KAVANAUGH
“…Justice Brett Kavanaugh was the outlier in the decision, agreeing with the court’s judgment but disagreeing with its justification. Yes, the president’s executive order was unlawful, but not because it was unconstitutional, Kavanaugh essentially said…”
The alarming split in the Supreme Court’s birthright citizenship ruling

The conservatives tout texturalism and originalism. Justice Anton Scalia defined texturalism as a method of constitutional interpretation that prioritizes the plain, objective meaning of the text. He defined originalism as the philosophy that the Constitution should be interpreted based on what its words meant to a reasonable person at the time they were ratified. He famously described the Constitution as "enduring" rather than "living," arguing originalism constraints judges from inventing new laws.

It looks like the Conservatives abandoned those principles in the Birthright Citizen Case. As a follower of the Supreme Court, I was disappointed.

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM^® Services PMI^® Report. The Services PMI^® registered 54 percent, the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory… “Respondents in June commented less frequently about pricing impacts on petroleum products, while tariff impacts continued to be a theme for increased pricing pressure.” Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/june/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 7537.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.57.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 4.483% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Basic internals were good today, and that added to the improvement in the indicators. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +10 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign that smooths daily fluctuations.

Monday there was High-unchanged-volume. Some think that unchanged volume is a sign of investor confusion at a market reversal. This is not one of my indicators since it is often wrong. Perhaps we can just say investors are not convinced about the strength of the recent move higher. Another sign of “lack-of-conviction” is low volume. Today’s volume was about 15% below the monthly average. You will hear talking heads say that this shows that the rally is suspect. I think not; volume is often low at the start of a move higher since many are not convinced that this is the time to buy. I think it is.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish. Technology sector (XLK) was up 1.7% Monday.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, July 2, 2026

Jobless Claims … Payroll Report … Durable Goods … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

Enjoy the Fireworks. Appreciate the 4^th and be safe. (As always, I don’t post when the stock market is closed.)

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” - Albert Einstein

JP MORGAN SIGNALS A DOT.COM LIKE WARNING (Markets Insider)
“Markets are flashing another parallel to the dot-com bubble, JPMorgan says. The bank's Jason Hunter pointed to one trend in particular in markets that looks similar to what happened to stocks in the months leading up to the dot-com crash. The signal has to do with the recent divergence in the AI trade, with hardware stocks separating from some of the biggest AI spenders in the market, Hunter wrote in a client note on Wednesday. Chip stocks have been on a tear for most of 2026….That performance differs from companies that have been among the most voracious spenders, many of which have been punished as investors air concerns about return on investment and whether AI will pay off from a monetization perspective.” Story at…
JPMorgan flags a warning quietly flashing in stocks that preceded the dot-com crash

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Advisor Perspectives)
“Initial jobless claims measure the number of people who file for unemployment for the first time in a given week. In the week ending June 27th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 219,000.” Commentary and charts at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/02/initial-unemployment-claims-down-1k-lower-than-expected?topic=buffer-etfs

PAYROLL REPORT (Yahoo Finance)
“The US economy added 57,000 jobs last month, fewer than economists had anticipated, government data shows. The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.2%, its lowest level in a year.” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/june-jobs-report-us-payrolls-rose-by-57000-missing-expectations-190000748.html

DURABLE GOODS (Crypto Briefing)
“The US manufacturing sector took a step back in May 2026, with new orders for durable goods falling $15.6 billion, or 4.5%...transportation equipment orders collapsed 14.0% in May…” Story at…
https://cryptobriefing.com/us-durable-goods-orders-fall-may-2026/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 was unchanged at 7483.
-VIX declined about 3% to 16.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly to 4.485% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Basic internals were good today, and that added to the improvement in the indicators. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +6 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher a BULLISH sign that is also important.

Today there was a bullish outside reversal pattern on the charts.
“A Bullish Outside Reversal is a two-day technical analysis candlestick pattern that signals a potential reversal of a downtrend, indicating that buyers (bulls) have taken control from sellers (bears). It occurs when the current session's price range completely engulfs the previous session's range, often appearing as a Bullish Engulfing pattern” – Investopedia.

Technology and semiconductor segments of the market continue to take it on the chin. This is disappointing, since I bet in those segments, and worrying. Worrying because in my experience when the leaders fail, markets fail. While that is an observation, the indicators continue to improve. This is one of those instances when one is best to ignore what you think, and follow what you see.

For fun, let’s check one of the high fliers that the market has decided to sell – Micron Technology:
“The company provides memory products, including dynamic random access memory components and modules, CXL-based memory, LPDDR components and modules, graphics memory, high-bandwidth memory, and data center memory products; multichip packages (MCP) comprising embedded multimedia card-based, universal flash storage-based, and NAND-based MCPs; and…” so on.

It was down 5.4% today and has dropped about 30% in the last week or so. One would suspect that it has a high PE? One would be wrong. Yahoo finance reports its trailing 12-month PE was a whopping 22. Those are trailing numbers. With higher future earnings expected it forward PE would be even lower. For comparison, the trailing PE of the S&P 500 is 27 according to Google AI. The chart would suggest that Micron has gone parabolic. Its earnings suggest its price is well justified. (The trailing PE for Nvidia is 30 per Yahoo Finance; high, but justified.)

If the markets do decide to follow the semis down, my indicators should give plenty of warning. Currently, they are not warning of trouble – they are getting more bullish. Let’s hope the semis join the market and move higher.

BOTTOM LINE
I am mildly bullish. I’ll feel better when the Technology and semiconductor segments begin to perform better.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)