Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Existing Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (NAR)
“Existing-home sales increased by 1.7% month-over-month in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report…Affordability improved for the eighth consecutive month, according to NAR’s Housing Affordability Index—increasing to 117.6 in February from 117.1 in January and 103.1 a year ago. This marks the highest level since March 2022.” Report at…
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 6781.
-VIX fell about 2% to 24.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.156% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
There was no follow-thru from yesterday’s big reversal  Apparently investors remain worried about inflation and jobs.  Both recent data sets have been below expectations.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; the optimistic words coming from Trump that the war was close to conclusion are not borne out by U.S. actions – today was the biggest bombardment yet.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The image is a bar chart depicting the momentum percentile rank of various ETFs, with SPY, IWM DVY XLI, XLY, XLE, XLF, IBB, XLV, ITA, XLK, XLB, XLU, and IEFA SCHE being compared, showing their performance relative to each other. AI-generated content may be incorrect.
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

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Monday, March 9, 2026

Trump Ends War? … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
FBI OBTAINS ARIZONA ELECTION RECORDS (CNBC)
(TRUMP STILL CORRUPTING THE DOJ AND THE FBI)
“The Arizona state Senate’s president said a federal grand jury issued a subpoena for records of the Senate’s audit of 2020 election results in Maricopa County, which President Donald Trump lost that year, contributing to his loss of the state to former President Joe Biden.” Story at…
My cmt: Trump’s witch-hunt on the “stolen-election” fantasy is reaching new heights of foolishness. The Arizona Republicans did their own recount in 2021 and actually found a few more votes for Biden. Here’s a news article from 2021…
 
“This past Friday, September 24, [2021] the result of the so-called “audit” of the election results in Maricopa County by the Republican Majority in the Arizona Senate was finally announced…the Arizona Senate’s contractor Cyber Ninjas ultimately reported that President Biden had won the county and found no evidence of fraud.” Story at…
 
 
JOBS AT RISK FROM AI
 
IRAN WAR COULD BRING DOWN ECONOMIES OF THE WORLD (Fortune)
“This will bring down the economies of the world,” Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister and CEO of its state-owned energy company, told the Financial Times on Friday. “If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted. Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher.” Story at…
My cmt: Maybe not. See below…
 
TRUMP SIGNALS IRAN WAR IS NEAR AN END (CNBC)
“The S&P 500 made a comeback from earlier losses on Monday after President Donald Trump said the war against Iran could be reaching its end.” Story at…
 
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6796.
-VIX fell about 14% to 25.50.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.103% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -17 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.

 

Today there was a bullish outside reversal pattern on the charts.
“A Bullish Outside Reversal is a two-day technical analysis candlestick pattern that signals a potential reversal of a downtrend, indicating that buyers (bulls) have taken control from sellers (bears). It occurs when the current session's price range completely engulfs the previous session's range, often appearing as a Bullish Engulfing pattern” – Investopedia.
 
We didn’t need an indicator to tell us there was a big reversal higher. The swing from low to high was over 2.5%. My indicators obviously don’t foresee news and that’s what drove today’s reversal. In a “normal” correction (not a news-driven event) I usually call bottoms by looking at specific market internal improvement as the S&P 500 tests a prior low. In this instance, we can look for rapid indicator improvement, especially in breadth, but that may not give us a timely buy-signal if it occurs.
 
Given the news, and the reversal, it would appear that it’s time to buy. I’m already fully invested, but I may add a trading position in SSO. Let’s see how tomorrow goes. Futures are down as I write this and that’s not confirming a bottom.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but there were optimistic words coming from Trump and that could lead to a turn-around and maybe it was today. We do need to keep in mind that the weakness in markets was there long before the recent events in Iran. I’ll be watching indicators to see if they get more optimistic.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)


My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 


My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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Friday, March 6, 2026

Payroll Report … Retail Sales / Unemployment Rate … Fed Beige Book … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
FED BEIGE BOOK (WSJ)
The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book report indicates a steady economy with persistent inflation, a stable labor market, and policy uncertainty.” Story at…
 
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (CNBC)
“The U.S. economy lost jobs in February, a month marred by severe winter weather and a strike at a major health-care provider… Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 for the month, compared with the estimate for 50,000…February marked the third time in the past five months that payrolls declined…the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%” Story at…
 
RETAIL SALES (AP News)
“American consumers pulled back their spending to start 2026, extending the malaise in retail sales that began late last year.
Retail sales fell 0.2% in January, following a flat reading in December…Excluding business at gas stations and auto dealers, retail sales rose 0.3% in January…” Story at…
 
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.3% to 6740.
-VIX rose about 24% to 29.49.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was unchanged at 4.138% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 21 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -17 (17 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication. Danger Will Robinson.
 
The markets fell below another level of support today (6800).
 
We picked up another bull indicator today (Bollinger Bands) so now we have a total of four. The Bollinger Band indicator is oversold, but RSI is not, so I’ll ignore this indicator. I use Bollinger Bands and RSI together. Even if RSI was confirming Bollinger Bands, I wouldn’t be buying on two indicators. We need to see volumes falling as the market falls since that would suggest selling may be winding down. One sign we sometimes see at bottoms is a big move down that triggers my Panic Indicator. It is based on a statistical analysis of market moves. So far, we haven’t seen any bottom signs other than Bollinger Bands. They can signal well before a bottom.
 
There were signs at the top back in January that a correction, if it occurred, would be 10% or less. Earnings have been good and that supports the “small-correction” thesis, but there are no guarantees.
 
As of Friday, the S&P 500 is only 3.4% below its all-time high. No panic yet although there isn’t much room for optimism.
 
The 200-dMA of the S&P 500 is 6582, about 2.5% below today’s close.  Another level of support is 6539, the 20 November low. My guess is that the S&P 500 will drop to its 200-dMA around the 6550-6570 level. It could certainly go lower and a retest of the November low wouldn’t be a surprise. The April 2025 low is around 5000; let’s hope we don’t go there.
 
Some of the weakness is now due to the news (war). Thus, we could have a sudden reversal higher if there is good news. Conversely, if hostilities go on much longer or there is bad news in the progress of those hostilities, markets could easily drop below the 200-dMA.  It seems like a correction of only 5.9% (3.4% so far +2.5% down to the 200-day) is too small given the unknowns and the rapid rise in oil prices we have seen so far.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; I am not expecting a crash, but it’s a worry. Let’s check Monday. It may be time to get more conservative in the portfolio.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Thursday, March 5, 2026

Productivity … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
 
May be an image of text that says 'NEWS In Western Hemisphere news, security forces of a peace-loving democracy invaded a neighbouring country and arrested its corrupt dictatorial leader. LET GO OF ME! THIS IS A TOTAL WITCH HUNT! Come along, eh! NOR 1)'
From “Bansky Art Fans” on Facebook.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE SENTIMENT EXTREME (McClellan Financial Publications)
“Recent data from the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of investment advisors and newsletter writers showed a very high bull-bear spread.  That spread is simply the numerical difference between the percentage of respondents classified as bullish versus those who are bearish.  High readings show extreme confidence, which every card-carrying contrarian knows is a sign of a top for stock prices.” – Tom McClellan. Analysis at…
My cmt: Tom cautions investors about following one indictor as I do regularly.
 
PRODUCTIVITY (LA Times)
“Labor productivity rose in the fourth quarter by more than forecast after the strongest advance in five years… Productivity, or nonfarm employee output per hour, increased at a 2.8% annualized rate…In the third quarter, productivity growth was revised up to a 5.2% pace.” Story at…
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week was unchanged from the week before, a sign that layoffs remain at historically low levels. U.S. filings for jobless aid for the week ending Feb. 28 matched the previous week’s 213,000…” Story at…
 
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 6831.
-VIX rose about 10% to 23.75.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.138% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -17 (17 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication. I have a really bad feeling about this.
 
There are now only 3 bull-indicators.  That’s a concern, but the 3 remaining indicators are important. Two of them are breadth indicators that suggest perhaps the market isn’t yet bad enough to be a “Sell.” The third compares cyclical industrials to the S&P 500. The cyclicals are still outperforming the S&P 500 suggesting that investors don’t expect a recession. If all three turn bearish, I will probably be a seller.
 
There were signs at the top back in January that a correction, if it occurred, would be 10% or less. That may be, but if there are no bull indicators, I’ll still most likely be a seller.
 
The close today for the S&P 500 was about 0.1% below its 100-dMA. If the Index is down again, it is another bearish sign although not one of my 50-indicators.
 
Some support levels are: S&P 500 6800, the level of recent lows.  The 200-dMA of the S&P 500 is 6574, about 4.5% below today’s close.  Another level of support is 6550, the 19 November low. My guess is that the S&P 500 will drop to its 200-dMA around the 6550-6570 level. It could certainly go lower. The 200-day is just a guess.
 
As noted previously, it seems like markets are doing terribly, but the S&P 500 is only 2.1% below its all-time high. The problem is that it is no higher than it was at the end of November.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; I am not expecting a crash but it’s a worry. I’ll hold my current stock positions unless indicators suggest otherwise.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Wednesday, March 4, 2026

ADP Employment … ISM Non-Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
HERITAGE CAPITAL BLOG
“… after 38 years in the business, I have seen my fair share of military actions. The most obvious reaction is usually obviously wrong. People scramble to buy oil, sell stocks, buy gold, buy bonds and buy the dollar. My inclination is to pause and either do nothing or do the opposite. Whatever the media harps on the most, I tend to go opposite.” - Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital. Blog at…
 
BANK OF AMERICA SAYS AI WON’T DESTROY THE ECONOMY (The Street)
“BofA’s economists believe the current AI panic misrepresents how economies evolve….History shows us that mechanized agriculture displaced millions of farm jobs, constricting that sector to just 40% of U.S. employment in the early 1900s to about 1% today. Nevertheless, the overall GDP grew at a remarkable pace as new industries surfaced.
In fact, BofA argues that AI will help deliver meaningful productivity gains, functioning more like a supply shock… What’s interesting is that despite all the talk about technological disruption, the recent labor-market softness isn’t clearly AI-driven.” Story at…
 
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP via PR NewsWire)
"We've seen an increase in hiring and pay gains remain solid, especially for job-stayers," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "But with hiring concentrated in only a few sectors, our data shows no widespread pay benefit from changing jobs. In fact, the pay premium for switching…
Private employers added 63,000 jobs in February. Hiring jumped in February, delivering the best showing for job gains since July 2025. Construction and education and health services led the growth.” Press release at…
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“The services sector is heating up, with the Business Activity, New Orders, and New Export Orders indexes at their highest levels since 2024, and the Backlog of Orders Index with its best reading since July 2022 (58.3 percent).” Report at… 
 
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6870.
-VIX declined about 10% to 21.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.094% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -12 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
“When missiles fly, it’s time to buy” or so some pundits claim. I think that’s a little too pat.  Markets have been weak for several months. It’s hard to say that markets will shrug off weakness because there’s a war going on. Today’s move was on low volume. I’m still cautious.
 
Some support levels are: The 100-dMA is 6835; S&P 500 6800, the level of recent lows.  The 200-dMA of the S&P 500 is 6574, about 4.5% below today’s close.  Another level of support is 6550, the 19 November low. My guess is that the S&P 500 will drop to its 200-dMA around the 6550-6570 level.
 
As noted yesterday, it seems like markets are doing terribly, but the S&P 500 is only 1.6% below its all-time high. The problem is that it is no higher than it was at the end of November.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term, but I am not expecting a crash. I’ll hold my current stock positions unless indicators suggest otherwise. I would need to see a lot more deterioration in Breadth before I adjust stock holdings.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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