“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
WHO REJECTED PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST (WSJ)
“In his op-ed “They Forget Who Started the War” (Sept. 1), Elliot
Kaufman correctly criticizes a blatantly inaccurate statement made by the
current leading candidate for United Nations secretary-general: that in
1948 Israel “violently
rejected the two-state solution.” In reality, the Jewish Agency for Palestine
accepted the U.N.’s two-state resolution, while the secretary-general of the
Arab League promised a “war of extermination and momentous massacre” if Israel
established its state pursuant to that resolution. Five Arab states invaded
Israel the day after Israel did.
Fast forward 75 years—past multiple other Arab-initiated
wars and rejections of two-state solutions—to Oct. 7, 2023, and the war of
extermination and massacre Hamas initiated
in its effort to galvanize Iran and its proxies to join a new final solution. A
Palestinian state could have been created multiple times, over nearly a
century, had the Arabs sought a second state instead of the destruction of
Israel.
Advertisement
In 1948, Israel’s U.N. representative, Abba Eban,
noted that, under the 1922 League of Nations Mandate and the 1947 U.N.
resolution, two Arab states—Transjordan and Arab Palestine—were to be
established on seven-eighths of the land originally set aside for the Jews
under the Balfour Declaration. He asserted that “many a Palestine Arab may come
to compare this prospect, which was peacefully available, with the results of
the ‘holy war’”—and that those who in the future would help the Arabs recognize
Israel’s permanence would be deemed “in the historic sense, a friend of the
Arabs,” because it would free the Arabs to concentrate on their own welfare,
rather than on a genocidal war.
These days, the U.N. regularly vilifies the state that
supported its two-state resolution—and misstates the history of those who
violently rejected it.” - Rick Richman, American Jewish University. From
Letters to Editor, WSJ at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/who-really-rejected-peace-in-the-middle-east-dca7ba40?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos12
PPI (CNBC)
The producer
price index, a measure of final demand costs for goods and services,
increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones
consensus…On an annual basis, that put the PPI at 5.4%, still well above the
Fed’s 2% inflation target and 0.1 percentage point higher than expected…Excluding
food and energy, the core PPI accelerated by 0.2%, against the forecast for a
0.3% increase.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/ppi-inflation-report-august-2026.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (RTT News)
“The report said initial jobless claims edged down to
206,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level of 207,000.”
Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3690067/u-s-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-edge-down-to-206000.aspx?type=ts
My cmt: Economists has expected a slight rise I claims.
EXISITNG HOME SALES (NAR)
“Existing-home sales decreased by 2.0% in August 2026…“Mortgage
rates and home sales move in opposite directions, so it's not surprising to see
a mild dip in home buying activity due to high mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief
Economist Lawrence Yun. “Still, home prices are rising, and existing home sales
are actually up 1.6% year-to-date through the first eight months of the year.”
News at…
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 7592.
-VIX rose about 8% to 17.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.969%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 21 gave Bear-signs and 2 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from -15 to -19 (19 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a very BEARISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
lower, a BEARISH sign.
Breadth has gotten worse.
This important condition for a correction has been met; over the last
10, 50 and 100-days, more than 50% of issues on the NYSE have declined. Others
use the advance/decline line for breadth analysis. It is not in great shape
either, as shown below.
As noted yesterday, the biggest concern in the indicators
is that there are only 2 Bull signs, although today one has changed.
One of the Bullish signs suggests an oversold condition,
because there have been only 7 up-days in the last month. Unfortunately,
oversold conditions can remain in place for long periods. I’d need to see more
positive signs before we think about a bottom.
The other bullish indicator is that the size of up-moves
has been greater than down-moves. This is one of my oldest indicators – it just
seems logical that in a down market, the size of down-moves will outpace the
size of up-moves.
The S&P 500 closed slightly below its 50-dMA, 0.2%
below to be more exact. Consecutive closes below levels of support often
suggest a trend-change. We’re still watching the 50-day, and the Index lower
trendline.
As noted yesterday, we have seen markets recover from
this sort of low-bull number without much of a correction in the past, so it is
not time to panic. However, it is time to pay close attention.
Market action recently has been uncomfortable since it
hasn’t advanced much since early June. On a positive note, the S&P 500 is
only 2.1% below its 13 August all-time high of 7799.
Volume increased today compared to the prior low so
selling doesn’t appear to be done yet, at least from technical indications. Good inflation news or good news from Iran could
always send markets higher.
I’ll be watching the Index 50-day average and
indicators. If we lose the last 2 bull
indicators, I’ll make changes to the stock portfolio. We’ll watch the 50-day
too.
BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but concerned.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
DEMOCRATS WANT 13 JUSTICES (WSJ – Excerpt)
“The future of the Supreme Court is on the ballot in
November, as Democrats keep showing, over and over. On Wednesday the House
voted on a proposal to amend the Constitution to fix the Court at nine
Justices, its size since 1869. Passing an amendment takes a two-thirds majority
as a first step. This failed, 212-206, with all but a lone Democrat saying no…
…Rep. Jamie
Raskin, the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, said on the floor.
“What’s going on here? Well, surprise, surprise, America, it’s another partisan
power grab by MAGA.”
…The Democratic drive to pack the Court is about power,
plain and simple. The Justices in today’s 6-3 majority are deciding cases based
on the law as they see it. That includes landmark rulings against President
Trump on tariffs, birthright citizenship, the Federal Reserve, and much more.
Yet Mr. Raskin and his friends dislike the Court’s decisions on abortion, free
political speech, the colorblind Constitution, and the separation of powers…
…Since Mr. Raskin poses as a defender of democracy, he
might want to ruminate on what happens to a country when it turns its courts
into a plaything of its politicians.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/house-vote-supreme-court-nine-justices-democrats-jamie-raskin-9c47e2a1
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7636.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.46.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.845%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 2 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from -5 to -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a very BEARISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed lower,
a BULLISH sign.
The biggest concern in the indicators is that there are only
2 Bull signs: (1) the 100-dMA of issues
advancing on the NYSE remains above 50% and (2) the size of up-moves have been
greater than down moves.
We have seen markets recover from this sort of low-bull
number without much of a correction in the past, so it is not time to panic.
However, it is time to get pay close attention.
Market action recently has been uncomfortable since it
hasn’t advanced much since early June. On a positive note, the S&P 500 is only
2.1% below its 13 August all-time high of 7799.
Further, the 50-dMA is a good level of support and the
Index is now only 0.4% above its 50-dMA.
I’ll be watching the 50-day and indicators. If we lose the last 2 bull indicators, I’ll
make changes to the stock portfolio. We’ll watch the 50-day too.
BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but concerned.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The NFIB Small
Business Optimism Index dipped in August to 98.7, just 1.1
points below July’s highest level since August 2025, but remaining above the
52-year average of 98.0…“Uncertainty remains elevated among small business
owners as they face a mixed set of challenges with weakened sales, supply chain
disruptions, and inflation pressures,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill
Dunkelberg. “While expectations for the overall economy dimmed, Main Street
owners remain largely positive in the health of their own businesses.” Report
at…
https://www.nfib.com/news/monthly_report/sbet/
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 7674.
-VIX rose about 8% to 15.72.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.80%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from -4 to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher,
a BULLISH sign.
The S&P 500 has been in a sideways correction since early
August and it is only up about 1% since 2 June. It is normal for this sort of
market malaise to last 2 to 3 months. Indicators aren’t particularly bad, but Breadth
has been slipping and as of today, less than half of the issues on the NYSE
have been up over the last 2-1/2 months. If we see breadth remain poor, we will
get concerned that markets may slip into a real correction. So far, I am not
seeing enough signs to draw that conclusion even though some of the bear signs
are worrisome.
Hindenburg Omens are still hanging around. We saw one
three days ago. And that was the seventh I the last 3 weeks. Clusters of Omens
are usually giving a valid signal.
BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but concerned.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
Have a good Labor Day on Monday.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
PAYROLL REPORT (Yahoo Finance)
“The August jobs report showed that hiring surged last
month. The US added 162,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported on
Friday.” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/live/august-jobs-report-live-updates-labor-market-155619193.html
My cmt: 162,000 is still not a huge number. It takes
200,000 just to provide jobs for new entries into the job market so I am not
concerned that this number will cause the Fed to raise rates. The expectation
was that only 55,000 jobs would be created.
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7719.
-VIX rose about 1% to 14.53.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.784%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +5 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down,
a BEARISH sign, but the 10-day value remained above the recent low ad that’s a hopeful
sign.
Today’s action may have been profit taking after the big
up-day Thursday.
The S&P 500is basically flat since early August.
Indicators have been rising recently. Let’s hope they are pointing the future.
We always keep in mind that indicators don’t predict the future – they show the
current trend.
BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“More Americans filed for unemployment benefits last
week, but layoffs are still rare and jobless claims remain at historically low
levels. The Labor Department reported Thursday filings for benefits ticked up
to 206,000 last week from a revised 204,000 the week before.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-3413da9e965fa7266cb62ea1d802badb
PRODUCTIVITY (Reuters)
“U.S. worker productivity growth picked up in the second
quarter, the government confirmed on Thursday, helping to keep labor costs in
check.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-second-quarter-productivity-growth-unrevised-2026-09-03/
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI
“ISM non-manufacturing PMI comes in at 55.4 in August,
beating expectations.” Video at…
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/09/03/ism-non-manufacturing-pmi-comes-in-at-55-point-4-in-august-beating-expectations.html
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 7748.
-VIX declined about 6% to 14.32.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.764%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from -3 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed
higher, a BULLISH sign.
Unchanged volume was very high today (Thursday)
suggesting confusion among investors. Some think this represents a reversal. Since
the S&P 500 chart is close to flat recently it is hard to say which way a
reversal would go. Since this signal is often wrong, it is not one of my
indicators, but RSI is down, suggesting a reversal is more likely to be higher
if a reversal were to occur.
I mentioned yesterday that the market was too calm as
measured by standard deviation of daily market moves. I call this the Calm-Before-the
Storm indicator. I usually expect to see this sell-indicator warn in a rising
market within roughly 20-days of a top. I was worried about it
yesterday, but on reflection, not so much today. That’s because the top was 3-weeks
ago. I scanned the data and only found a
few instances when this indicator gave a sell warning when the markets were not
rising. Those cases occurred near bottoms, but since there weren’t many
instances, it may not be valid to conclude the bottom is in based on this
indicator.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, but leaning Bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
CUT DOWN THE TREES (Irish Star)
“The Trump administration has removed 40 weeping willow
trees that lined both sides of the embattled John F. Kennedy Performing Arts
Center… "They symbolized the mourning of a nation for President Kennedy
following his assassination in 1963…" Story at…
Bitter
Trump razes 40 weeping willow trees outside Kennedy Center commemorating
assassinated president
My cmt: The story implies that Trump cut the trees out of
spite. According to Forbes; “The weeping willows on the upper terrace were
removed in October 2025 because they were decaying, unstable, and posed a
safety hazard. The trees were planted in shallow soil beds built directly over
concrete decks, which restrict root growth and require the trees to be replaced
periodically (roughly every 10 to 15 years). Prior to the removal, a storm had
already knocked down one of the trees, and others were visibly dying.”
TRUMP CUT DOWN CHERRY TREES (Snopes)
“A rumor circulating in late August 2026 claimed crews
cut down dozens of cherry trees to pave the way for U.S. President Donald
Trump's plans to renovate a Washington, D.C., golf course. As
of this writing on Sept. 1, we've found no evidence to support the claim dozens
of cherry trees had been removed as part of the project.” Story from Snopes
Fact-check site at…
Did
Trump cut down dozens of cherry trees for DC golf course renovations?
My cmt: I am not a Trump fan, but I get tired of the Democrat
lies.
ADP EMPLOYMENT (PR Newswire)
“Private employers added 38,000 jobs in August. Private
employers posted their slowest pace of job creation since January.
Manufacturing, professional services, and information shed jobs. Education and
health care, construction, and leisure and hospitality all showed solid hiring.”
Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-38-000-jobs-in-august-302867661.html
FACTORY ORDERS (Quartz.)
“New orders for U.S. manufactured goods rose 0.9% in
July to $663.6 billion, rebounding after a 0.2% drop in June, the
Census Bureau said on Wednesday.” Story at…
https://qz.com/us-factory-orders-july-2026-aircraft-090226
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 7667.
-VIX declined about 6% to 15.33.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.782%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from -8 to -3 (3 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
down, a BEARISH sign.
There is now a very concerning indicator; markets are too
calm. This indicator tracks standard deviation and it is usually accurate in
calling for a top. The only problem is
that it does not make a timely call. The best we can say is that a top is
likely within a month. The last time we saw this indicator warn was in October
of 2025. The top occurred 2-1/2 weeks later and preceded a 5% decline.
Before that, this indicator warned of a top 3-days before
the bottom of a 4% decline. Let’s hope that’s what we are seeing now – that the
market is close to an end of its weakness.
I still wouldn’t be surprised to see the S&P 500 fall
to its 50-dMA – about 1.2% below today’s close.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
HOUSE VOTES TO AVOID GOVT SHUTDOWN IN THE FALL (CNBC)
“The U.S.
House on Tuesday voted, 370-48, in favor of a stopgap spending measure
that expected to avert a government shutdown this fall ahead of the 2026 midterm election, though GOP hard-liners vowed to
complicate things.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/01/congress-government-shutdown-vote.html
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 55.6
percent in July, 2.3 percentage points above the June figure and the highest
reading since May 2022 (55.9 percent). The overall economy continued in
expansion for the 21st month in a row.“ Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/july/
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (RTT News)
“Partly reflecting a steep drop in spending on
residential construction, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday
showing construction spending in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased in the month
of July. The report said construction spending fell by 0.5 percent…” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3687572/u-s-construction-spending-unexpectedly-falls-0-5-in-july.aspx?type=alleco
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.7% to 7631.
-VIX rose about 10% to 16.34.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.802%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from -6 to -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
down, a BEARISH sign.
Tuesday was a statistically significant down-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time,
Bottoms almost always occur on/or near
Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days
occur at bottoms. Tuesday is not likely to have been a short-term bottom; there
were no Bottom Indicators flashing “buy.”
The Bollinger Band Squeeze has resolved. Now the S&P
500 is very close to its lower Bollinger Band nearly giving a buy-signal for
this indicator, although we rarely act on only one signal.
I had hoped we would see the S&P 500 break higher
after the Bollinger Band Squeeze; however, I was disappointed. The Index broke lower. This pushed the Index
lower toward its 50-dMA. The S&P 500 closed 0.8% above its 50-day. That is
still the most likely end for the market weakness we are experiencing.
Unfortunately, the Iran conflict continues to be the gift-that-keeps-giving;
now it is giving bad news that raises concerns over oil and possible inflation
troubles from various commodities that transit those waters. The S&P 500 is 7.1% above its 200-dMA. Earnings
were very good so it doesn’t seem that the index will fall that far, but of
course, it is possible. News trumps technicals.
BOTTOM LINE
I could be bearish based on indicators and market action
but I’m still neutral since I think we are watching a normal retreat to the
lower trend line around the 50-dMA.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
