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Friday, October 9, 2026

Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

BUSY DAY TODAY!

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

JOBLESS CLAIMS (WSJ)
U.S. jobless claims decreased for the fifth week in a row as employers continue to keep their workforce levels static. The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits was 197,000 in the week through Oct. 3, 2,000 lower than the revised 199,000 reported a week earlier…” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/u-s-jobless-claims-slide-yet-again-2d927e44

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7765.
-VIX rose about 2% to 15.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 5.225% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -6 to -1 (1 More Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was flat a NEUTRAL sign.

NOT MUCH DIFFERENT TODAY…
Breadth continues to be poor. The McClellan Oscillator remains bearish, another sign of bad breadth. The weak breadth at the all-time high does suggest that if we do have a correction, it is likely to be greater than 10%. As usual, we need more information.

A down day doesn’t tell us much. We need to see another new-high on the Index and hope that internals will improve. That would be a good sign especially if breadth measures suggest a broadening rally. There was some improvement in the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE (one my breadth measures).

We continue to watch indicators.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral until we see improvement in indicators; weak indicators may send us to bear mode.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, October 7, 2026

FED Minutes … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from zero to -6 (6 More Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign.

Breadth continues to be poor. More than half of the issues on the NYSE have been down over every time frame we consider – 10, 20 ,50, 100 and 150-days. The McClellan Oscillator reversed to the bearish side today, another sign of bad breadth. The narrow market sets up the possibility of a correction, but doesn’t guarantee it. The weak breadth at the all-time high does suggest that if we do have a correction, it is likely to be greater than 10%. As usual, we need more information.

A down day doesn’t tell us much. We need to see another new-high on the Index and hope that internals will improve. That would be a good sign especially if breadth measures suggest a broadening rally.

We continue to watch indicators.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral until we see improvement in indicators; weak indicators may send us to bear mode.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Reduced Stock Holdings

Based on yesterday’s weak internals at the all-time high, I sold QLD and reduced my position in NVDA today. I don’t want to hold leveraged positions (2x Nasdaq 100 - QLD) if there are signs of a correction. Nvidia is also a high Beta position. (High Beta means it is more volatile than the S&P 500.)

To be clear, there are signs of a correction, but I am not calling for a correction yet. Indicators are Neutral to slightly bearish as of mid-day, Wednesday. I am choosing caution. If conditions improve, I’ll re-establish positions.

I am now probably 50-55% invested in stocks.

Tuesday, October 6, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

From...

https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/

LETTERS (WSJ)

“Bob Greene’s op-ed “The Most Important People in an Election” (Sept. 28) quotes former Senator Bob Dole in a Chicago coffee shop, saying, “If you could figure out what the people in here are thinking right now, I bet not a one of them is thinking about politics.” I believe Congress, together with the executive branch, is the most wasteful, dysfunctional and incompetent organization on earth.
Look at the way Republicans and Democrats treat each other. They call each other names, accuse each other of the nastiest things, try to undermine and embarrass each other at every turn.
Americans have more important things to think about—family, work, friends, community. They have better things to do than waste time thinking about an organization where the majority of politicians seem like they’re there to enrich themselves at the expense of the taxpayer and keep the country divided.
Maybe term limits would help change the environment. I don’t know. I’m too busy focusing on what’s important and in my control.” - Peter J. Schmole, letter to editor, WSJ at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/americans-have-better-things-to-think-about-33adee40?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos9

HUSSMAN COMMENTARY (Hussman Funds)
“The most aggressive compromise, in my view, is to assume that the average margins of the past decade will be permanent. I don’t actually recommend that compromise, but we can “fix” the largest outliers of recent years by adjusting MarketCap/GVA by the 10-year average nonfinancial profit margin, which gives us a MarketCap/GVA version of Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE).
The chart below shows the mapping between this adjusted measure, which I’ve dubbed GVA_PE10, and actual subsequent S&P 500 12-year average annual nominal total returns. The recent record high was 26, while the historical norm associated with subsequent 10% annual S&P 500 returns is less than 11. That comparison gives us a narrower baseline market risk estimate of a potential 58% loss from current levels over the completion of this market cycle.” – John Hussman, PhD.

Chart and commentary from Hussman Funds at…
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc260908/
My cmt: A 58% Bear Market is very possible when this cycle ends. I have not seen signs of an end yet. We can hope that my indicators will give fair warning. They have in the past and even worked for the Covid bear market which was incredibly short. When a major trend reversal occurs, it may take years for the markets to bottom.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 7819.
-VIX declined about 3% to 15.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 5.301% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026. (Finally have a gain here. 2%, but it’s better than a loss. -10/5/26)
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026. (11% gain. - 10/5/26)

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -4 to zero (Equal Bear indicators & Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign.

The S&P 500 made a new, all-time high Tuesday, but indicators were disappointingly weak giving a Neutral signal in the bull-minus-bear spread. While indicators have improved, there is a cautionary sign here. I have no examples going back to 2022 when there was an all-time top for the S&P 500 without a bullish spread in the Bull-minus-Bears indicators. (My data for the 50-Indicator Spread only goes back to 2022.) Usually, the spread is very bullish at new highs. There was also bad news in other areas of breadth.

New, 52-week highs were low, Tuesday (less than 100) on the NYSE. I looked at New-Hi/New-Low data, specifically when there are fewer, new-highs at an all-time high. (I have more data here since historical new-high/new-low data was readily available on the internet, but those free websites have disappeared.) Low new-highs at an all-time high suggests a correction larger than 10% is coming. In the past 11 years there have been 5 instances when new-highs were signaling a >10% correction at an all-time high. This warning was correct in 4 out of the 5 cases. Once there was no correction. Corrections averaged 19% declines. Based on the above worrisome signs, we need to watch indicators and price action carefully.

It is possible that the weak indicators and weak new-high numbers are a holdover from the market weakness that has been going on since early August. If so, we may see these numbers improve and cancel the bearish signals. If breadth doesn’t improve, I’ll trim some stocks.

But, at least one breadth indicator did improve; the McClellan Oscillator turned bullish today.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral until we see improvement in indicators, especially in the new-high/new-low data..

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, October 5, 2026

ISM Non-Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

My banjo playing from Dramtreeo’s 1^st CD on YouTube …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3Pm1hQZspg

And From the Folk USA site,

here’s a tune from Dramtreeo’s “Waterside” CD, a top 5 selection by the World Folk Music Association back in the 80’s…

http://www.folkusa.org/dramtreeo_squareriggedship.mp3

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

A BIG MOMENT FOR FEDERALISM (WSJ)
“The Supreme Court kicks off a new term Monday with a case ostensibly about climate change but with much bigger stakes. The real issue in Suncor Energy v. Boulder County is whether states and localities can turn federalism on its head to dictate policy for the rest of the country.
Boulder and more than 30 other state and local governments have sued oil and gas producers for alleged damage caused by their global CO2 emissions. Boulder wants compensation for wildfires, the costs for mitigating pest infestations, reduced farm output and lower employee productivity, among other things.”
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/suncor-energy-v-boulder-county-supreme-court-climate-case-federalism-201279e6
My cmt: This strikes me as insanity on steroids. Yes, global warming has increased the Earth’s temperature by 1 degree centigrade over the last 100-years; but we are all responsible not just a few Corporations. Where would Colorado be without oil and gas? No cars; no trains; no air travel; no plastics; no industry; farms that can’t keep up with population growth; heating with wood; travel by horse – the old west. The benefits of oil and gas far outweigh the costs. Further, steps are underway:
- “From 1990 to 2022, greenhouse gas emissions per dollar of goods and services produced by the U.S. economy (the gross domestic product or GDP) declined by 55 percent.” - EPA
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20U.S.%20greenhouse%20gas,above%201990%20levels%20in%202007
- “United States energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have fallen by roughly 18% to 20% since 2005.” – From Statista at
https://www.statista.com/statistics/183943/us-carbon-dioxide-emissions-from-1999/?srsltid=AU7gw4UtAUoXfMM4HuQnbiRvpj9yenPy8hOz3uDnOkcPavJGHY8pwrdj#google_vignette
…and the impacts of Global Warming so far…
“We look historically. What we’ve observed so far: There are no long-term trends in hurricanes or more generally tropical cyclones, as they’re called technically. And I think many people find that as a surprise. Over the last, roughly almost a century, we see no detectable trends in hurricanes. We do see for about the last 70 years some intensification of precipitation over the land. And we see that in the US rainfall has gotten more intense, but not necessarily more plentiful, in the Northeast, the upper Midwest, and the Northwest.
In terms of record-high temperatures in the US, they’re no more common today than they were 100 years ago. Yes, sea level rise globally has been accelerating for the last several decades, but it was also doing the same thing in the 1930s when, in fact, human influences were much smaller. So a lot of what we’re seeing can be put down to natural variability, or at least we need to show that it’s not natural variability. And that’s pretty hard without long-term and precise records.

Going forward, we predict the temperature will go up. And there are predictions, but it’s pretty difficult with a lot of uncertainty, about faster sea level rise, 10 percent more hurricanes, for example, some intensification of floods and droughts, but we haven’t seen it yet. And the temperature has already gone up by a degree. So it remains to be seen… when you look at what happened in Glasgow where basically China and India and a couple of the other developing countries said, “We need energy and we’ve got the wolf at the door. We got to worry about that. And maybe a couple of generations from now we’ll worry about our emissions.” And that’s not an unreasonable attitude for them to take. We in the US, EU will have a different attitude, but unfortunately, the US is only 13 percent of global emissions. And even if we went to zero, it would be wiped out by the growth in the rest of the world within a decade.” - Steven Koonin, PhD.
https://www.aei.org/economics/what-do-we-know-about-climate-change-my-long-read-qa-with-steven-koonin/

THE MARKET HAS BECOME VERY NARROW (WSJ)
“There’s a new story in stock markets: If you aren’t touched by AI, good luck.
Artificial intelligence is sucking in capital and squeezing the rest of the market, where stocks face higher interest rates and oil prices without a sexy technology story to sell. The new pattern took hold in September, when Treasury yields skyrocketed—and it’s creating stress in other debt markets too…
…under the surface, September’s stock-price moves show how narrow the market has become. Almost 80% of stocks in the S&P were down, the average stock was off 5% and only two out of 11 sectors were up, led by tech.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/ai-is-squeezing-out-the-rest-of-the-stock-market-60928dd3

SELL AI, ACCORDING TO GUNDLACH (MoneyWise)
“Even if AI doesn’t “kill us,” Jeffrey Gundlach thinks it’ll “kill” your portfolio.
The founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital — who famously predicted the housing bubble of 2007 — is now forecasting a major fall for AI-related stocks. Although there are many reasons why Gundlach sees the AI boom collapsing, he focused on the recent narrative shift spurred by former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon’s viral X post.” Story at…
I just want out: Billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach, who called the housing bust in 2007, says you should have almost nothing in AI stocks

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM via PR Newswire)
“Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in September, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM^® Services PMI^® Report. The Services PMI^® registered 54.9 percent, the 27th consecutive month in expansion territory… "In September, the Services PMI^® registered 54.9 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point compared to August's figure of 55.4 percent.” Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-54-9-september-2026-ism-services-pmi-report-302898421.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 7774.
-VIX rose about 1% to 15.52.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.307% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026. (Finally have a gain here. 2%, but it’s better than a loss. -10/5/26)
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026. (11% gain. - 10/5/26)

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -10 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign.

I’ve shown big increases in the daily bull-bear indicator spread chart with a blue vertical line. Those points have been good buying opportunities. The most recent example was Friday and it was confirmed today.

As the S&P 500 approaches a new, all-time high, we get a chance to view the health of the market. As noted in the above article excerpt, THE MARKET HAS BECOME VERY NARROW, narrow breadth is a concern. We measure breadth looking at how many issues on the NYSE have advanced over varying time frames and new-high/new-low data. Neither look strong now, although to get an accurate reading we need to see how breadth is faring when the S&P 500 makes an all-time high. In Feb 2025, breadth was low prior to new, all-time highs, as it is now. It didn’t improve at the top and that preceded a 19% correction. Unless we see some rapid improvement in breadth, we may be facing a similar scenario this time.

The S&P 500 is only 0.3% below a new, all-time high.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish, but we’ll need to check internals at a new, all-time high for the S&P 500. I expect one soon.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Saturday, October 3, 2026

Payroll Report … Unemployment … Factory Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -18 to -10 (10 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher a BULLISH sign.

Bad news is good news. Jobs came in light. A Fed hike seems less likely; bond yields fell; stocks rose. The Fed Watch indicator from CME Group had a 37% likelihood of a Fed hike at the 28 October meeting a few days ago. Now it has fallen to 23%.

The spread between New-Highs and new-lows made a large bullish move today. New-lows still outpace new-highs, but there were a lot fewer new-lows. That can be a good sign of a bottom, but it is not one of my bottom indicators. (I know; that makes no sense.)

As previously noted, the following condition remains: only 7 days have been up in the last month and that is an oversold signal. The 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator continues to signal “Buy,” another probable bottom signal.

Bottom may not be the right term. The S&P 500 bounced up from its 50-dMA and that is a routine occurrence. Maybe we’ll finally put some distance between the Index and the 50-dMA.

All this talk about “bottoms” CNBC sellers, and “weakness”… the S&P 500 closed 1% below its all-time high, Friday. Obviously, I know nothing!

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, October 1, 2026

Jobless Claims … ISM Manufacturing … Construction Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -18 (18 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed lower a BEARISH sign.

Seems like the indicators were here not long ago. We can see in the 50 Indicator Spread chart above that the daily spread (red) is almost as low as it was on 10 September. Then, as now, conditions are set for a correction; but that doesn’t mean a correction is guaranteed. It isn’t; indicators are showing weakness, but Price is still hanging in there. As long as the S&P 500 shows strength, I am in wait and see mode. The S&P 500 is still above its 50-dMA and its lower trendline.

I heard Josh Brown on CNBC's midday show pointing out that 5% bonds are a good deal. He also suggested that investors might consider taking money off the table. One of the pundits recommended the 10-year bond as a “Final Trade.” I think that may be the first time I’ve seen that. But it does point out another headwind for the market and I think that was Josh Brown’s point. Years ago, I used to watch the CNBC “Fast Money” show. If all of the experts were recommending an action, for example “sell,” it usually marked a good time to buy.

I am watching indicators and market action to see if I will lighten up on stocks… or buy more.

Breadth remains weak whether measured by advancing issues or new-highs.

As previously noted, only 7 days have been up in the last month and that is an oversold signal. The 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator continues to signal “Buy,” a probable bottom signal. But it is only one bottom indicator that is bullish. Others have not yet signaled “BUY” and they may not since there hasn’t been much of a bottom yet. I’ll wait for more bullish signs before adding to stock holdings.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish, but a drop below the 50-dMA could change that.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)