Navigate the Stock Market

Friday, September 18, 2026

Industrial Production … Leading Economic Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a very BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.

The S&P 500 closed 0.4% above its 50-dMA. Price action continues slightly bullish even if most of the indicators aren’t confirming it. However, one did.

Friday, there was a bullish outside reversal pattern on the charts.
“A Bullish Outside Reversal is a two-day technical analysis candlestick pattern that signals a potential reversal of a downtrend, indicating that buyers (bulls) have taken control from sellers (bears). It occurs when the current session's price range completely engulfs the previous session's range, often appearing as a Bullish Engulfing pattern” – Investopedia.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but a little more optimistic.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Philly Fed … Jobless Claims … Housing Starts … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

"I'll be honest. I don't think the president could spell AI if I gave him the first letter." - Rep. Stephen Lynch during Treasury Secretary Bessent’s Congressional testimony.

WSJ LETTERS TO EDITOR:
PARTIES CHOOSING PANDERING OVER PRUDENCE (WSJ)
“Regarding your editorial “Trump Has a $5,000 Bridge to Sell You” (Sept. 11): The absurdity of President Trump’s promise of a $5,000 “dividend” for every U.S. adult citizen if Republicans hold Congress in November pales in comparison to the Democrats’ more costly and far more cynical proposals.
Independent analyses estimate the cost to the federal government of “Medicare for All” would be between $25 trillion and $35 trillion over 10 years. Free undergraduate education, expanded student-loan forgiveness, free day care and more generous food stamp and housing voucher transfer payments would add trillions more in fiscal folly to a national debt that has crossed the $40 trillion threshold.
The bridges that Democratic candidates are selling involve the creation of new bureaucracies or the expansion of existing ones. Unlike one-time payments, the “free” programs that Democrats advocate will last as long as the war on poverty, if not forever.” - Steven Sarfatti

“In addition to our $1.9 trillion annual deficit, piled onto $40 trillion in debt, the leader of the Republican Party offers a $1.2 trillion bribe to keep his party in office. Let that sink in for a minute. The only political party that represents fiscal conservatism is fine drowning us in debt. This is why so many thoughtful Americans are now independents, and why many of us are working hard to normalize independent candidates. If we don’t, we see no hope that our nation will avoid a debilitating financial crisis.” - Mike Collier
WSJ letters at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/both-parties-choose-pandering-over-prudence-51396877?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos9

PHILLY FED INDEX (Seeking Alpha)
“The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to 37.8 in September 2026 from 47.4 in August, remaining strong and beating the market consensus of around 31.3.” Story at…
https://www.tradingview.com/news/seekingalpha:267a91696094b:0-philly-fed-manufacturing-index-falls-less-than-expected-in-september/

JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The number of people applying for unemployment benefits dropped sharply last week, another sign that layoffs remain rare and most Americans enjoy job security. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims slid to 196,000, the fewest since mid-July and down from 206,000 the week before.” Story at…
https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/claims-unemployment-benefits-drop-196000-lowest-mid-july-136524400

HOUSING STARTS (Reuters)
“US single-family homebuilding increased in August, but a drop in permits for future construction suggested the improvement was likely temporary as rising inflation because of the war in the Middle East boosts mortgage rates. Single-family housing starts, which account for ‌the bulk of homebuilding, jumped 7.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 918,000 units last month…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-single-family-housing-starts-rebound-august-building-permits-fall-2026-09-17/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 7638.
-VIX declined about 13% to 15.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.939% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -15 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a very BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.

The S&P 500 closed 0.3% above its 50-dMA.

The Index is only 2.1% below its all-time high.

Thursday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.

The market has been concerned with the unknown of Fed rate hikes. Even though the hike was well anticipated, the market hates unknowns. The bad news (rate hike) is now in the past. My guess is that markets go higher, perhaps after a brief pause. From here I want to see how markets react. I’d like to see indicators improve, too, so I’ll watch in the near term.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but concerned.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

FED Decision … Retail Sales … NAHB Housing Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT

The market reaction to the Fed hike is pretty clear in the chart. The Nasdaq chart was similar, but it recovered and finished essentially unchanged.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -13 to -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a very BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.

There was a Bollinger Band Squeeze Monday.
“A Bollinger Band Squeeze is a technical analysis pattern that happens when the upper and lower [Bollinger] bands come close together, signaling a period of low market volatility that often precedes an explosive price breakout…To determine breakout direction, Bollinger suggests that it is necessary to look to other indicators…
If there is a positive divergence—that is, if indicators are heading upward while price is heading down or neutral—it is a bullish sign. For further confirmation, look for volume to build on up days. On the other hand, if price is moving higher but the indicators are showing negative divergence, look for a downside breakout—especially if there have been increasing volume spikes on down days. Another indication of breakout direction is the way the bands move on expansion. When a powerful trend is born, the resulting explosive volatility increase is often so great that the lower band will turn downward in an upside break, or the upper band will turn higher in a downside breakout.” - Investopedia.

Bollinger used RSI and a couple of other indicators I don’t use to judge the breakout direction. RSI is closer to a buy than a sell. Other indicators are bearish, so indicators suggest a downside breakout, but Bollinger Bands were oversold today – mixed signals. Since I use RSI and Bollinger Bands together, Bollinger Bands alone don’t signal a bottom.

The S&P 500 closed 0.9% below its 50-dMA and now sits around ½% above its100-dMA

The Index I only 3.3% below its all-time high.

The market reacted to the Fed hike today by falling on its face. Was that an overreaction? It sure seems like it since the rate hike was almost certain. Futures are up as I write this (7:45 Wednesday night) so I am not in a rush to sell. I think markets will recover, but we’ll watch to see what really happens.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but concerned.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

NY Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -16 to -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a very BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.

The S&P 500 closed 0.3% below its 50-dMA. That’s not a great sign, but we’ll look tomorrow to see if there have been consecutive closes below the 50-day. Market direction probably hinges on the Fed and what they do and say tomorrow when the Fed announces the rate decision. We await the Fed. The CME Fed Watch website indicates a 92% chance of a rate hike on Wednesday.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but concerned.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, September 14, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

ATLANTIC RECORD FOR NO HURRICANES (AccuWeather)
“The Atlantic hurricane season has set a satellite-era record with no hurricanes [so far this season]… El Niño, disruptive wind shear, dry air and Saharan dust have all helped limit the number of Atlantic tropical storms and prevented any from becoming hurricanes so far this season.” Story at,,,
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic-sets-no-hurricane-record-florida-development-zone-watched/1933538
My Cmt: Funny, when there are a lot of Atlantic Basin hurricanes it’s caused by Global Warming. When the numbers are low, there’s no mention of Global Cooling. There are hints that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may be shifting to a cool phase. If it does, that will depress future Atlantic hurricane activity. The climate alarmists will hate that. The AMO has been in a warm phase since 1995.

“From 1990 to 2022, greenhouse gas emissions per dollar of goods and services produced by the U.S. economy (the gross domestic product or GDP) declined by 55 percent.” - EPA
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20U.S.%20greenhouse%20gas,above%201990%20levels%20in%202007

RE: DEMOCRATS WANT 13 JUSTICES (WSJ)
“Regarding your editorial “Democrats Really Want 13 Justices” (Sept. 5): As someone who has been a lawyer since the 1970s and a liberal since the 1960s (I was a reasonably alert high-school student), I have to agree with the editorial board on this one.
Anyone who takes constitutional law will read opinions of the U.S. Supreme Court spanning its history and will notice a few things: that justices sometimes change their thinking about issues over the course of their terms on the court, that presidents come and go, as do justices, and that the “liberal-conservative” balance on the court changes. We are currently in a dominantly “conservative” period, but that is likely to change as the current justices age out and as the mood of the public shifts and along with it the party affiliation of the White House’s occupant. And, besides, it was the “Nixon court” that gave the country Roe v. Wade in 1973, with a Nixon appointee writing the opinion.” - Gary Roberts. WSJ Letters to Editor at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/court-packing-is-misguided-and-overlooks-legal-history-307e3ce1?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos4

PAUSE FOR HUMANITY’S SAKE (WSJ – Excerpt)
“In late August came a report from the independent AI research organization METR on the Hugging Face incident. OpenAI was running advanced systems through a security test when its AI agents went rogue. Over several weeks and without being told to, they secretly organized, broke out into the open internet, and hacked into Hugging Face, a major AI-development platform. Roughly 1,200 agents worked in what they called a “collective,” deliberately evaded detection, created their own message board, and exchanged 70,000 communications. Some agents sacrificed themselves for the mission.
They cooperated, created a strategy no one designed them for, picked their own target, moved on their own initiative. None of this was supposed to be possible. It was a warning shot, an alarm bell…
…He [Paul Christiano, a top AI safety expert] said: “I now believe there is a meaningful risk that rapid acceleration in AI capabilities leads to catastrophic and irreversible loss of control in the very near term. I do not think that the AI industry in general, including OpenAI, is currently on track to reduce this risk to an acceptable level.”
…almost all AI professionals fear a disaster is going to happen. Ones I’ve spoken to since Hugging Face have left the subject of mass job loss and are on to catastrophe. They fear bioterrorism and a mass-casualty event—a modern Ted Kaczynski who’ll send not bombs but a plague. They fear utilities and infrastructure being hacked and dismantled. They fear an AI agent rousing an AI army to take down the American banking system…
…When something is speeding up and going out of control, prudence, care and deliberation aren’t alarmist, they’re necessary. Stop, think. The stakes are high, couldn’t be higher.” -
Peggy Noonan, WSJ columnist. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/pause-ai-for-humanitys-sake-8839ca5e?mod=opinion_lead_pos8
My cmt: It has been several years since I read an account of an AI program that re-wrote its code so it couldn’t be turned off. Imagine if your Microsoft program re-wrote itself so that “Quit” no longer worked. Today, AI programs are much more frightening. Without direction, one program got hold of money and bought its engineer a robot. We now see calls coming from AI CEOs to slow AI development. Anyone who doesn’t see the risk must be an idiot. Right Donald?

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7620.
-VIX rose about 7% to 16.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.998% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -17 to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a very BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.

Still too many bear signs, but here are a few optimistic signs:
-The S&P 500 closed 0.2% above its 50-dMA.
-There was 1 new bull-sign today – up-volume improved.
-The S&P 500 is only 2.2% below its 13 August all-time high of 7799.
-One of the Bullish signs suggests an oversold condition, because there have been only 7 up-days in the last month.
- The size of up-moves has been greater than down-moves.
- The S&P 500 is outpacing Utilities (XLU). When investors are worried, they buy Utilities so if the Index outperforming XLU, it suggests investors are not worried.

On the Bear side:
There are too many to list, but Breadth is the most worrisome.
-Breadth remains weak. This important condition for a correction has been met; over the last 10, 50 and 100-days, more than 50% of issues on the NYSE have declined. This doesn’t mean a correction is guaranteed.

-…and then there’s the Fed. The CME Fed Watch website indicates a 92% chance of a rate hike on Wednesday. In theory, the rate hike is “baked-in” that is, anticipated by the market so a rate hike should not produce an outsize market reaction; however, I suspect that it will result in some downside action. If inflation is being caused by Trump’s war and Tariffs, then a rate hike would be counterproductive. Tariffs and high fuel costs are slowing the economy by acting as a tax increase. I don’t see how slowing the economy further will help.

I‘ve been tempted to take some money off the table and sell stocks. In the end, I’ve decided against it, because declines have been small and the S&P 500 is still above its 50-dMA. I think market conditions will get worse; but I am following what I see, not what I think.

I’ll be watching the Index 50-day average and indicators. If we lose the last 4 bull indicators, I’ll make changes to the stock portfolio. I’ll watch the 50-day too.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but concerned.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, September 11, 2026

CPI … Consumer Sentiment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

From…
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

UNIV OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment receded less than 4 index points for the second consecutive month of decreases…Year-ahead expectations for both personal finances and business conditions plunged. With a resurgence in fuel prices and trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressures on their pocketbooks to come.” Report at…
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
The Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 13.2% year-over-year.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 7657.
-VIX declined about 11% to 15.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.971% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -19 to -17 (17 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a very BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.

Breadth remains weak. This important condition for a correction has been met; over the last 10, 50 and 100-days, more than 50% of issues on the NYSE have declined.

As noted previously, the biggest concern in the indicators is that there aren’t many Bullish signs; Friday there were 3 as follows:.
(1) One of the Bullish signs suggests an oversold condition, because there have been only 7 up-days in the last month. Unfortunately, oversold conditions can remain in place for long periods. I’d need to see more positive signs before we think about a bottom.
(2) The size of up-moves has been greater than down-moves.
(3) The S&P 500 is outpacing Utilities (XLU). When investors are worried, they buy Utilities so if the Index outperforming XLU, it suggests investors are not worried.

A few more good signs:
(1) Market action recently has been uncomfortable since it hasn’t advanced much since early June. On a positive note, the S&P 500 is only 1.8% below its 13 August all-time high of 7799.
(2) The S&P 500 closed 0.6% above its 50-dMA so it avoided consecutive closes below it. Consecutive closes below the 50-day are a concern.

As noted yesterday, we have seen markets recover from this sort of low-bull indicator spread without much of a correction in the past, so it is not time to panic. However, we are still paying close attention.

I was very tempted to take some money off the table and sell stocks. In the end, I decided against it, because declines have been small and the S&P 500 is still above its 50-dMA. The weakness may still be just a retreat to the 50-day. Actually, I think market conditions will get worse; but I am following what I see, not what I think.

I’ll be watching the Index 50-day average and indicators. If we lose the last 3 bull indicators, I’ll make changes to the stock portfolio. I’ll watch the 50-day too.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but concerned.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)