Jobless Claims … Existing Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
HURRICANE SEASON DOWNGRADED AGAIN (Tampa Bay Times)
“After months of predicting a “below normal” [Atlantic Basin] hurricane season, weather researchers at Colorado State University further downgraded their forecast on Tuesday and now expect even fewer tropical storms than average to form in the Atlantic this year. Forecasters now anticipate nine named storms, including four hurricanes and one major hurricane, during the season which runs through Nov. 30.” Story at…
Forecasters further downgrade hurricane season to 'well below-normal'
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“U.S. applications for jobless aid in the week ending July 4 ticked down by 2,000 to 215,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-8d1f553fde8124606b2e3350fe789776
 
EXISITING HOME SALES (CNBC)
“Sales of previously owned homes in June dropped 2.4% from May to 4.09 million units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors…June sales were, however, 2.8% higher than the same month a year prior.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/09/june-home-sales-prices.html
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7544.
-VIX declined about 6% to 15.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 4.545% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
 
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher... Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
 
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +2 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign that smooths daily fluctuations.
 
The McClellan Oscillator improved and moved above zero. Life Finance says: “A McClellan Oscillator reading above zero indicates bullish market breadth. It means the short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of advancing stocks minus declining stocks is higher than the long-term EMA, signaling strong buying pressure and positive market momentum.” While that sounds good, we need to put it in perspective. Wednesday was the only day in the past 2-weeks that the Oscillator has been negative. This just reiterates that breadth has been improving.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Indicator Update

 

Car trouble on the way back from the beach so slim post for Wednesday.

 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:

At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

 

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +10 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign that smooths daily fluctuations.

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
VACCINATION DEATHS / MURDER (AP)
“An Idaho woman who said her toddler twins died last year after being vaccinated faces murder charges connected to their deaths, authorities said. A grand jury indicted Andrea Shaw, who is accused of suffocating her 18-month-old twins in May 2025, on two counts of first-degree murder on June 29, according to court records and a statement from the Payette Police Department…Shaw is also a plaintiff in a federal lawsuit brought by Children’s Health Defense [an anti-vaccine group founded by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.] and others against the American Academy of Pediatrics. The lawsuit, which was filed in January in federal court in Washington, accuses the American Academy of Pediatrics of racketeering for its “central role in an enterprise that has defrauded American families about the safety of the childhood vaccine schedule for several decades.” In the lawsuit, Shaw is described as a mother “whose children died following routine vaccinations administered according to AAP guidelines.” Story at…
An Idaho mother who said her toddler twins died after vaccinations has been charged with murder
My cmt: I asked Google AI how many children died last year from hepatitis A, influenza, or DTaP vaccines. The answer: “Zero children died from receiving hepatitis A, influenza, or DTaP vaccines. These vaccines are rigorously tested for safety, and medical experts confirm that deaths caused by them are exceptionally rare. In fact, pediatric deaths occur because children contract these preventable diseases, primarily when they are unvaccinated. - CDC
 
SHIPS HIT IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ (NBC News)
“Oil prices jumped Tuesday to their highest level since late last week after reports that two tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz had been hit by unknown projectiles.” Story at…
Oil prices rise as attacks revive safety concerns in the Strait of Hormuz
My cmt: It looks like Trump may have to finish what he started. CENTCOM announce new strikes on Iran.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7537.
-VIX declined about 3% to 16.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.551% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT

Today’s market action seems to mirror the last 2 months – mostly confused and not making any progress, but indicators have been improving. That’s a good sign, although they slipped slightly today.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign that smooths daily fluctuations.
 
After flashing a sell signal for the last 3 weeks the Fosback Hi/Low Logic Indicator finally improved to a neutral signal. Like the Hindenburg Omen, this indicator warns when both new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows are elevated.
 
Micron Technology was down almost 5% today and another 1% after hours. Its trailing PE is now around 21. The PEG Rato is PE divided by Growth Rate. Micron’s PEG Ratio is a miniscule 0.03 while its 5-year PEG Ratio is around 0.2. “Historically, a PEG ratio of 1.0 or less generally suggests that the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings growth. Micron Technology's exceptionally low ratio is primarily driven by its massive, cyclical earnings surge as demand for semiconductor memory in AI and integrated systems remains robust.” – Zachs Investment Research. Investors seem to think a huge amount of Micron’s revenue is going to dry up – they are acting like the AI build-out is going to end soon. I suspect they are over reacting, but I am no expert there.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, although the Iran news doesn’t look good.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI … Birthright Citizenship … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
SUPREME COURT UPHOLDS BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP
There have been some strange cases in the Supreme Court recently. There have been cases when the ruling should have been 9-0, but liberal justices were opposed; for example, Students for Fair Admission vs Harvard seemed straightforward to me. The Constitution is color blind so it should have been simple to rule against race-based admission standards. Apparently, it wasn’t simple enough; the vote was 6-2 and Jackson recused herself since she is on the board for Harvard. The vote was 6-3 in a similar UNC case. Sotomayor wrote: "Ignoring race will not equalize a society that is racially unequal. What was true in the 1860s, and again in 1954, is true today: Equality requires acknowledgment of inequality." Uh, what? This isn’t 1860 or even 1960. The Constitution is clear and there seemed to be little reason to make race-based decisions in 2023.
 
Similarly, I expected a 9-0 ruling in the Birthright Citizenship case.
 
Here’s the 14^TH amendment of the US Constitution:
“All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside…”
 
Some who are not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the US include foreign diplomats and high-ranking embassy staffs. A diplomat can’t be arrested – an illegal immigrant most certainly can be – they are under our jurisdiction. Off hand, I can’t think of any others. An invading army? It is disappointing to me when the Supreme Court can’t decide a simple case like this 9-0. This time it was the Conservative wing subverting the Constitution. Here’s the gist:
 
… Trump maintained that the [14^th amendment] provision was meant to apply only to former slaves, but "wasn't meant for the entire world to occupy the United States." That interpretation, however, has not been embraced by the courts or the legal norms of the country for 160 years.
https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5839358/birthright-citizenship-decision-scotus-trump
My cmt: Yes, the Constitution was amended to ensure that children of slaves were citizens, but the language is broader than that, as is its clear intent.
 
ROBERTS FOR THE MAJORITY:
“Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the court's 6-3 opinion, citing both the colonists' demands for the "rights of Englishmen" as well as the abolitionists lauding of the "ancient and universal" rule of citizenship by birth alone.
"Citizenship, then and now, was the right to have rights — to freely participate in our political community. The Framers of the Fourteenth Amendment extended that promise to 'every free-born person in this land,'" Roberts wrote. "We keep that promise today."
https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5839358/birthright-citizenship-decision-scotus-trump
 
ALITO DISSENT:
“Alito railed against the majority's ruling in a forceful dissent, arguing the justices misinterpreted the 14th Amendment. He wrote that only people who owe their full allegiance to the United States, and not another country, should automatically receive citizenship at birth…"
Alito warns Supreme Court made 'serious mistake' that could have national security consequences
My cmt: The Constitution doesn’t say anything about “allegiance to the United States.”
 
THOMAS DISSENT:
"Despite his longstanding endorsement of a 'colorblind' Constitution, Justice Thomas now surprisingly suggests that the Citizenship Clause was a race-conscious remedial measure, relating only to 'freed slaves such as Dred Scott,' and those who shared with them certain characteristics…" - Justice Ketanji Brown.
My cmt: The language is not limited to a remedial measure. In 1868 (when the 14^th amendment was ratified) immigration was open. Does Justice Thomas think that children of immigrants in 1868 shouldn’t have been citizens?
 
GORSUCH DISSENT
“Gorsuch also wrote a separate brief dissent, in which he appeared to suggest that Trump’s executive order might violate the Constitution as it applies to the children of undocumented immigrants who intend to live in the United States permanently. “If those parents are not domiciled here,” Gorsuch queried, “then where are they domiciled? And if the answer is nowhere,” he continued, “how can we reconcile that conclusion with this Court’s longstanding recognition that every person is domiciled somewhere?”  Story at…
https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5839358/birthright-citizenship-decision-scotus-trump
My cmt: I didn’t get the domicile argument.
 
KAVANAUGH
“…Justice Brett Kavanaugh was the outlier in the decision, agreeing with the court’s judgment but disagreeing with its justification. Yes, the president’s executive order was unlawful, but not because it was unconstitutional, Kavanaugh essentially said…”
The alarming split in the Supreme Court’s birthright citizenship ruling
 
The conservatives tout texturalism and originalism. Justice Anton Scalia defined texturalism as a method of constitutional interpretation that prioritizes the plain, objective meaning of the text. He defined originalism as the philosophy that the Constitution should be interpreted based on what its words meant to a reasonable person at the time they were ratified. He famously described the Constitution as "enduring" rather than "living," arguing originalism constraints judges from inventing new laws.
 
It looks like the Conservatives abandoned those principles in the Birthright Citizen Case. As a follower of the Supreme Court, I was disappointed.
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM^® Services PMI^® Report. The Services PMI^® registered 54 percent, the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory… “Respondents in June commented less frequently about pricing impacts on petroleum products, while tariff impacts continued to be a theme for increased pricing pressure.” Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/june/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 7537.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.57.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 4.483% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Basic internals were good today, and that added to the improvement in the indicators. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +10 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign that smooths daily fluctuations.
 
Monday there was High-unchanged-volume. Some think that unchanged volume is a sign of investor confusion at a market reversal. This is not one of my indicators since it is often wrong. Perhaps we can just say investors are not convinced about the strength of the recent move higher. Another sign of “lack-of-conviction” is low volume. Today’s volume was about 15% below the monthly average. You will hear talking heads say that this shows that the rally is suspect. I think not; volume is often low at the start of a move higher since many are not convinced that this is the time to buy. I think it is.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish. Technology sector (XLK) was up 1.7% Monday.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Jobless Claims … Payroll Report … Durable Goods … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
Enjoy the Fireworks. Appreciate the 4^th and be safe. (As always, I don’t post when the stock market is closed.)
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” - Albert Einstein
 
JP MORGAN SIGNALS A DOT.COM LIKE WARNING (Markets Insider)
“Markets are flashing another parallel to the dot-com bubble, JPMorgan says. The bank's Jason Hunter pointed to one trend in particular in markets that looks similar to what happened to stocks in the months leading up to the dot-com crash. The signal has to do with the recent divergence in the AI trade, with hardware stocks separating from some of the biggest AI spenders in the market, Hunter wrote in a client note on Wednesday. Chip stocks have been on a tear for most of 2026….That performance differs from companies that have been among the most voracious spenders, many of which have been punished as investors air concerns about return on investment and whether AI will pay off from a monetization perspective.” Story at…
JPMorgan flags a warning quietly flashing in stocks that preceded the dot-com crash
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Advisor Perspectives)
“Initial jobless claims measure the number of people who file for unemployment for the first time in a given week. In the week ending June 27th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 219,000.” Commentary and charts at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/02/initial-unemployment-claims-down-1k-lower-than-expected?topic=buffer-etfs
 
 PAYROLL REPORT (Yahoo Finance)
“The US economy added 57,000 jobs last month, fewer than economists had anticipated, government data shows. The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.2%, its lowest level in a year.” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/june-jobs-report-us-payrolls-rose-by-57000-missing-expectations-190000748.html
 
DURABLE GOODS (Crypto Briefing)
“The US manufacturing sector took a step back in May 2026, with new orders for durable goods falling $15.6 billion, or 4.5%...transportation equipment orders collapsed 14.0% in May…” Story at…
https://cryptobriefing.com/us-durable-goods-orders-fall-may-2026/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 was unchanged at 7483.
-VIX declined about 3% to 16.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly to 4.485% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Basic internals were good today, and that added to the improvement in the indicators. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +6 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher a BULLISH sign that is also important.
 
Today there was a bullish outside reversal pattern on the charts.
“A Bullish Outside Reversal is a two-day technical analysis candlestick pattern that signals a potential reversal of a downtrend, indicating that buyers (bulls) have taken control from sellers (bears). It occurs when the current session's price range completely engulfs the previous session's range, often appearing as a Bullish Engulfing pattern” – Investopedia.
 
Technology and semiconductor segments of the market continue to take it on the chin.  This is disappointing, since I bet in those segments, and worrying. Worrying because in my experience when the leaders fail, markets fail. While that is an observation, the indicators continue to improve. This is one of those instances when one is best to ignore what you think, and follow what you see.
 
For fun, let’s check one of the high fliers that the market has decided to sell – Micron Technology:
“The company provides memory products, including dynamic random access memory components and modules, CXL-based memory, LPDDR components and modules, graphics memory, high-bandwidth memory, and data center memory products; multichip packages (MCP) comprising embedded multimedia card-based, universal flash storage-based, and NAND-based MCPs; and…” so on.
 
It was down 5.4% today and has dropped about 30% in the last week or so. One would suspect that it has a high PE? One would be wrong. Yahoo finance reports its trailing 12-month PE was a whopping 22. Those are trailing numbers. With higher future earnings expected it forward PE would be even lower. For comparison, the trailing PE of the S&P 500 is 27 according to Google AI. The chart would suggest that Micron has gone parabolic.  Its earnings suggest its price is well justified. (The trailing PE for Nvidia is 30 per Yahoo Finance; high, but justified.)
 
If the markets do decide to follow the semis down, my indicators should give plenty of warning. Currently, they are not warning of trouble – they are getting more bullish. Let’s hope the semis join the market and move higher.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am mildly bullish. I’ll feel better when the Technology and semiconductor segments begin to perform better.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

ISM Manufacturing … ADP Employment … Construction Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
"Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is the probable reason why so few engage in it.” -  Henry Ford

SURRENDER TO IRAN...

 

TRUMP KNEW THE RISK OF IRAN BLOCKING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. HE STILL WENT TO WAR (WSJ-14 March 2026)
“Before the U.S. went to war, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told President Trump that an American attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. 
Caine said in several briefings that U.S. officials had long believed Iran would deploy mines, drones and missiles to close the world’s most vital shipping lane, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.
Trump acknowledged the risk, these people said, but moved forward with the most consequential foreign-policy decision of his two presidencies. He told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait—and even if Iran tried, the U.S. military could handle it…The U.S. operation to wipe out Iran’s military capability “is quite literally intended to deprive them of their ability to close the Strait,” Leavitt [White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt] said.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/iran-oil-hormuz-blockade-trump-f96bdd53
My cmt: So far, it seems to me that we have not done a good job of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and now Iran is claiming sovereignty over the Strait, something they had not done before the conflict. The above article from March highlights how Trump misjudged the enemy, and now, it appears that he may be willing to give up too much to settle. 
 
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
““The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 53.3 percent in June, 0.7 percentage point lower than in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 20th month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI^® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)” Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/june/
 
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP)
“Private sector employment increased by 98,000 jobs in June and pay was up 4.4 percent year-over-year according to the June ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab").” Report at…  
https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-07-01-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-98,000-Jobs-in-June-Annual-Pay-was-Up-4-4
 
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (The San Joaquin Valley SUN)
“Overall construction spending in the U.S. edged up just 0.1% in May, with high mortgage rates and inflation dampening new home construction despite an increase in renovations.” Story at…
https://sjvsun.com/u-s/construction-spending-rises-slightly-as-homebuilding-lags/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7483.
-VIX declined about 0.8% to 16.59.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.481% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Basic internals were good today, and that added to the improvement in the indicators. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +1 to +6 (6 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a Bearish sign that is also important.
 
One big, new bull-sign:
The 5-10-20 Timer System signaled “buy” today. It is a chart crossover system.
From Trend Spider…
“ The strategy monitors the interaction of three specific EMA lengths:
·       5 EMA: The fastest, most reactive line to recent price changes.
·       10 EMA: The intermediate line tracking near-term momentum.
·       20 EMA: The slowest line in this setup, providing a baseline for the broader short-term trend.
A buy signal occurs when the faster averages cross above the slower averages, indicating an upward shift in momentum.
·       The 5 EMA crosses above the 10 EMA.
·       Both lines subsequently cross above the 20 EMA.”
Some think that this system is good enough to use exclusively. I don’t know.  I have found that the bigger the number of indicators, the better are the results.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am mildly bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Chicago PMI … Consumer Confidence … JOLTS … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
“One of the painful signs of years of dumbed-down education is how many people are unable to make a coherent argument. They can vent their emotions, question other people’s motives, make bold assertions, repeat slogans—anything except reason.” ― Thomas Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
 
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index cooled 6.0 points in June to 56.7, signaling an expansion in regional business activity for a second straight month. The latest reading was higher than the projected 55.7.” Commentary and charts at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/06/30/chicago-pmi-june-2026
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (AP News)
“The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose 0.6 point to 91.2 in June, a figure that is still below its year-ago reading of 95.2… The report suggests that consumer confidence is recovering only slowly from the hit caused by the Iran war.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/consumer-confidence-economy-inflation-da0a1dee651d3e36123e8e83622c4ac4
 
JOLTS – JOB OPENINGS (Investing Live)
“Looking at the report, the May data shows a stable labor market, with job openings, hiring, quits, and layoffs all largely unchanged, suggesting labor demand remains steady but is not accelerating nor decelerating.” Story at… 
https://investinglive.com/news/jolts-job-openings-7594m-vs-7300m-estimate-20260630/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7499.
-VIX declined about 7% to 16.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.455% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

Today’s chart looked good – almost straight up from left to right and closing near the high for the day. Indicators improved too.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -5 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a Bearish sign that is also important.
 
So far, not much movement in the 10-day moving average of indicators, but there was a decent move in the daily numbers. They are still neutral, but we can be encouraged that they moved higher.
 
Tuesday there was High-unchanged-volume. Some think that unchanged volume is a sign of a market reversal, in this case lower. This is not one of my indicators since it is often wrong.
 
The S&P 500 closed 1.6% above its 50-dMA.That’s a good sign.
 
BOTTOM LINE
It’s hard not to be bullish after the nice two-day bounce we’ve seen off the 50-dMA. Three is a charm, so they say. I’ll feel better if the rally continues.                                                                                
 ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.

 The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.