Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Factory Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
ELECTION DAY
TG! Now we won’t have to listen to the incessant liars on TV every 10 minutes claiming their political opponent is a crook. It’s on to Medicare open season. Jeez… We’ll be bombarded by a new set of liars.
 
JUDGE REJECTS CLAIM AGAINST EX-FBI STAFF(WSJ)
“A federal judge threw out charges against two former FBI officials accused of lying to Congress about their involvement in the Hunter Biden investigation, excoriating the Justice Department’s case as a “slapdash job” that created political theater ahead of the midterm election.
“I am deeply troubled,” said U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui in Washington. “What has transpired here cannot be described as anything other than weaponization.”
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/judge-rejects-charges-that-ex-fbi-officials-lied-about-hunter-biden-probe-dcb5d510
My cmt: The judge was also troubled by the timing of the streamlined complaint immediately before the election.
 
VOTERS WANT CHANGE NOT EXTREMES (WSJ – Excerpt)
“Elections are the closest thing to a civic sacrament in a secular, democratic state. They represent the solemn occasion when the essential idea of democracy gets practical expression: the demos, the people, taking literal charge of the kratos, the government… We have done our best in recent years to erode the sacral aspect of this ceremony. In keeping with the solipsistic nature of modern social life and the primacy of personal convenience, we no longer come together to vote on the same day… We can survive the degradation of the symbolic national unity of voting. I’m doubtful we can survive the systematic undermining of the practical political unity elections are supposed to induce…
…If the Democrats do win on Tuesday, I fear that, like a people in the grip of insanity, we are on course to keep doing the same thing and expecting different results… Meanwhile, even if the blue wave is meaningful, the country won’t be that different. Voters will be dissatisfied with high prices and uneasy with the excesses of the president; they won’t be voting to reinvent America’s capitalist system or to overhaul the Constitution.
In a sane world, wise politicians would interpret the results for what they are. Republicans would listen and rethink their party’s trajectory. Democrats would listen and stick narrowly to counterbalancing the administration and holding it accountable.” – Gerard Baker, Editor at Large, WSJ. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/voters-want-change-not-more-lurching-between-extremes-86eac5ab
 
“The person who has had the biggest impact on my life was Harford Steele…Mr. Steele was my high school civics teacher. He showed me what it takes to be a good American.” – John Glenn, Hero, Astronaut, US Senator.
 
“I taught Johnny [John Glenn] and hundreds of others that our democracy is a priceless heritage, and that we should preserve, protect and if at all possible, make some contributions to it.” – Hartford Steele, principal and civics teacher, New Concord, Ohio.
 
FACTORY ORDERS (Reuters)
"New orders for US factory goods increased more than expected in September, boosted by bookings for aircraft and a ​range of other goods… Factory ‌orders rose 1.8%...” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-factory-orders-beat-expectations-september-amid-broad-strength-2026-11-03/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7569.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 20.83.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.906% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from zero to -6 (6 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, is reversed lower, a BEARISH sign.
 
I was hoping for confirmation of a low Monday, but we didn’t get much of a signal.  A big move higher, say around 1%, would have been a good confirmation. Instead, we did see a move higher, but not one that would suggest that sellers had turned into buyers. Internals were weak today, too; declining-issues outpaced advancing-issues; new-lows far outpaced new-highs; declining-volume was stronger than advancing-volume.
 
Where is the S&P 500?
          - 3.2% below its all-time high
          - 1.6% below its 50-dMA
          - 0.7% below its 100-dMA
          - 3.5% above its 200-dMA
 
As I write this tonight futures are collapsing. It looks like markets are not happy with election projections that Dems will take the House and Senate. We’ll see.
 
Lets’ see what indicators show Wednesday. We could get some buy-signals on a big washout. As of today, indicators aren’t all that bad.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No confirmation; no bottom. I’m back to Bearish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 


The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Monday, November 2, 2026

ISM Manufacturing … Construction Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
NY TIMES SAYS DEMS RECRUITED SPOILERS IN ALASKA (YahooNews/Reuters)
“Democrats recruited potential spoilers in Alaska's US Senate race, the New York Times reported on Wednesday. Aides to Mary Peltola, the Senate Democratic nominee, worked ‌with the campaign's lawyers and senior staff at Senate Democrats' campaign arm to recruit two ‌candidates who are on the ballot and could siphon votes from incumbent Republican US Senator Dan Sullivan, according to the ​Times.” Story at…
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/democrats-recruited-spoilers-alaska-senate-181107256.html
My cmt: I have never seen the TY Times criticize Democrats. As a left-leaning paper, if the Times says the Dems did it, I believe the Times.
 
“Looming large.” - Michael Ramirez, Las Vegas Review-Journal. From…
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/cartoon-growing-threat-3906814/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=topnews&utm_source=opinion_michael-ramirez&utm_term=CARTOON%3A%20Growing%20threat
 
FEDERAL DEBT 100% OF GDP (WSJ)
“The U.S. national debt reached 100% of gross domestic product for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, hitting the triple-digit mark for the first time since 1946…
… The outlook is rough. Social Security is projected to reach insolvency in 2032, triggering automatic benefit cuts unless Congress acts. Net interest costs, the most immovable object in the budget, are projected to climb by more than 1% of GDP over the next decade, according to CBO.
And that forecast from earlier this year assumed interest rates well below today’s prevailing rates. If all interest rates are 0.1 percentage point above CBO’s forecasts, that adds $379 billion in interest costs over a decade.” Story at… 
https://www.wsj.com/economy/federal-debt-hits-100-of-gdp-585d3cb0
 
WHERE ARE THE FISCAL HAWKS (WSJ-Excerpt)
“France could be a sign of what awaits. Its debts and deficits are in the same league as the U.S., although its economy is weaker. Attempts to curb spending have brought down four prime ministers in three years. As investors lost hope of any fix, they began dumping French bonds, sending yields soaring and slowing an already weak economy. So what happened to Washington’s fiscal hawks—the political leaders concerned about debt and prepared to curb red ink? They hit a wall of indifference and retired, lost elections, changed the subject or became doves…
… With fiscal hawks largely gone from the halls of power, it’s not clear who or what will bring them back.
“Voters say they care about the deficit, but very, very few will accept higher taxes or spending cuts to get there,” said Jessica Riedl, a longtime Republican budget aide who is now an analyst at the Brookings Institution…
…Perhaps if another G-7 country experiences enough pain, U.S. leaders will move, said Michael Faulkender, a University of Maryland finance professor who was a senior Treasury Department official during both Trump administrations. 
“Is it going to be Great Britain or is it going to be France that fails first? And is that finally going to be the wake-up call?” he said. “I hope we can learn from somebody else going through that scenario as opposed to us having to live it.” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/fiscal-hawks-national-debt-midterms-gdp-8b7a950d
 
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM via PRNewswire)
"The Manufacturing PMI® registered 55.5 percent in October, 1 percentage point above the September figure of 54.5 percent. The overall economy expanded for the 24th month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-55-5-october-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302925617.html
 
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Reuters)
“US construction spending tumbled in September, nearly reversing the prior month's upwardly revised jump, likely because ​high materials costs depressed outlays on residential renovation ‌projects.
The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday that construction spending fell 1.9% after an upwardly revised 2.0% increase in August.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-construction-spending-tumbles-september-2026-11-02/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7541.
-VIX rose about 9% to 21.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.912% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -6 to zero (Equal Bull indicators and Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
I was tempted to cut some stock holdings today, but the CNBC noon crowd talked me out of it. They said that the election is a clearing point and that stocks have been up after the mid-terms 20 out of 21 times or something like that.
 
Where is the S&P 500?
          - 3.5% below its all-time high
          - 2% below its 50-dMA
          - 1% below its 100-dMA
          - 3.1% above its 200-dMA
 
As I check today’s data, we note some interesting news. At today’s (Monday’s) new-low, volumes were lower than the prior-low on Friday. This suggests a decline in selling pressure. In addition, underlying market internals improved and that suggests the bottom is in, or close.  Looks like it may be time to buy, not sell.
 
In addition, we note that Bollinger Bands are oversold/bullish. RSI is very close to oversold. I use Bollinger Bands and RSI together so these indicators are also suggesting a bottom. Reversals in new-high/new-low data suggest a bottom too.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Bullish, but sometimes these signals are early, or less often, wrong. I’ll watch to see how markets act. I’d like the markets (other investors) to confirm my buy-signal. If buying is strong late in the day, I’ll add to stock holdings.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Friday, October 30, 2026

Chicago PMI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
CHICAGO PMI (INDEXBOX)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index has declined, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity across the Chicago region, according to Investing.com. The index registered 55.3, below the forecast of 55.8 and down from the prior month's reading of 58.8. The reading remains above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction, so the data point to continued growth at a slower pace rather than an outright contraction.” Story at: https://www.indexbox.io/blog/chicago-pmi-falls-to-553-missing-forecast-and-signaling-slower-manufacturing-growth/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.8% to 7580.
-VIX rose about 13% to 19.42.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.933% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +2 to -6 (6 More Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, is reversed lower, a BEARISH sign.
 
Looks like my concerns from yesterday were well founded. The weak earnings from Intel, Google and Amazon Thursday were enough to rattle markets and led to Friday’s selloff.  I was busy today and didn’t follow the market as I had planned; I made no moves in stocks.
 
But I am glad I sold my QLD position and most of my NVDA positions 3-weeks ago.
 
Where is the S&P 500?
          - 3.3% below its all-time high
          - 1.8% below its 50-dMA
          - 0.8% below its 100-dMA
          - 3.4% above its 200-dMA
 
That 200-dMA is a point of strong support so that would be a reasonable place for this decline to end. As of now, it looks like we are in a correction; it is not over yet. Volumes Friday were higher than prior lows suggesting increasing fear.
 
There were some bull signs:
Only 46 days in the last 100 have been up. That’s a long-term bullish sign, but it is not a very timely indicator.  It was a month early in calling the bottom of the 25% decline in October of 2022.
 
Bollinger Bands are oversold/bullish. RSI is nearly oversold, but not there yet. By those standards a bottom could be near.  That would fit with a drop to the 200-dMA. That is around the 29 July low at 7316.    We’ll need to see what happens next week. Do indicators improve?

There is always the worry that this correction could fall more than 10%. That was the signal we got at the recent all-time high.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Bearish short-term. With an expectation that the decline may only be another 3% or so lower, I am not planning to lower stock holdings; but I suppose further large price declines could cause me to re-evaluate.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Thursday, October 29, 2026

GDP … Jobless Claims … PCE Prices … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
CRASH COMING? (Daily Mail)
“According to the tech analysts at Gartner, data centers that run artificial intelligence need to generate $8.5 trillion in revenue over the next four years to pay for themselves, but the companies that own them are only expected to bring in $3.6 trillion over that period. That's a gaping $5 trillion hole of missing revenue, about equal to all the money the US government brings in from taxes and other sources in one year.
And if companies don't manage to come up with this massive missing sum, a major market crash is all but inevitable, experts say.” Story at…
Wall Street flashes red as experts fear stock market crash is coming
My cmt: The worry is that this concern may be coming soon – like in a few weeks. That fits the rising wedge pattern we see in the charts.  Let’s hope the fear is overblown. Breadth has improved, but is still weak. That’s another sign that this crash scenario is concerning.
 
GDP (CNBC)
"The U.S. economy grew at a 3.4% pace in the third quarter, faster than expected.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/pce-inflation-report-september-2026-.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (WSJ)
“U.S. jobless claims were subdued again last week, defying forecasts for an uptick as the labor market remains slow but sturdy.
The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits was 194,000 in the week through Oct. 24, 1,000 lower than the revised 195,000 reported a week earlier…” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/u-s-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-edge-lower-0aee8b41
 
PCE PRICES (Yahoo Finance)
“A fresh reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed prices heated up in September, solidifying expectations for an interest rate hike in December. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 3.6%, in line with expectations and up from 3.4% a month earlier.” Story at… 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pce-inflation-prices-ticked-higher-in-september-keeping-expectations-for-a-year-end-fed-hike-143025383.html
My cmt: Core PCE (excluding food and energy) was also up slightly and in line with expectations.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 7720.
-VIX rose about 2% to 17.20.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.902% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -1 to +2 (2 More Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, is headed higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
Watching the Chart: The S&P 500 is only 1.3% below its all-time-high and 0.3% above its 50-dMA. The bearish, rising wedge-pattern remains, but it can become a bullish sign if the Index can break above the upper trend line.  If it doesn’t break higher, we are likely to see a rapid decline. 
 
Breadth continues to slowly improve, but there are warning signs today. After weak results from Intel, Google and Amazon Thursday, one wonders whether we’ll see continued improvement.
Afterhours: Amazon was down about 8%; Intel was down 23%; Alphabet (Google) was down 12%.
 
Those are big numbers. Markets don’t like surprises so there are new uncertainties. Futures are down as I write this and perhaps fear will pick up. That doesn’t tell us what to do – fear can signal the time to buy or sell. When leaders like Amazon and Alphabet post big loses in a narrow (weak breadth) market, it can be a time to sell.
 
I’ll try and post during the day if I make any portfolio changes.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but leaning Bearish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Fed Rate Decision … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
TRUMP DOJ REBUKED (AP News)
“The Justice Department on Tuesday failed to secure a grand jury indictment against a former White House staffer who provided dramatic but disputed testimony against President Donald Trump before a House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol insurrection, according to two people familiar with the matter… Republican lawmakers had accused her of lying under oath in her explosive testimony in 2022 about Trump’s behavior on Jan. 6, when a mob of his supporters stormed the Capitol to halt the congressional certification of his election loss to Democrat Joe Biden.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/cassidy-hutchinson-trump-indictment-65b19759933189cdebb164c5bd80649c
 
FED RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“The Federal Reserve held steady on rates at the conclusion of its October meeting, maintaining its target range of 3.75% to 4%. Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee dissented from the decision: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were in favor of raising rates by a quarter percentage point.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7744.
-VIX declined about 3% to 16.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 5.011% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -1 (1 More Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, improved but continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Same as Tuesday, if we look at only the Bull indicators, we note that the 20-dMA of bull indicators continued higher today. That’s a good sign. As I wrote yesterday, perhaps the long, stock-market malaise is ending.
 
The S&P 500 is only 1% below its all-time-high and 0.6% above its 50-dMA. That’s the norm for the chart pattern. The bearish, rising wedge-pattern remains, but it can become a bullish sign if the Index can break above the upper trend line.  If it doesn’t break higher, we are likely to see a rapid decline.  
 
Breadth has improved some, but overall, the indicators are still in the doldrums, so I can’t feel bullish.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but concerned.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Durable Goods … New Home Sales … New Home Sales … Consumer Confidence … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
Tuesday post – I got too busy to finish this yesterday.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
CODDLING PUTIN WON’T BRING PEACE (WSJ – Excerpt)
“While Vladimir Putin ignores Mr. Trump’s call for an energy cease-fire and continues to murder Ukrainian civilians, the U.S. president claims that Russia “has been fine on Ukraine.” This is factually wrong, strategically naive and morally bankrupt. His obsequious accommodation of Russia, rewarding the aggressor with sanctions relief, won’t persuade Mr. Putin to stop. History shows that such behavior emboldens Russia’s autocrat, who sees it as weakness… The good news for Americans is that Senate Republicans oppose retreat and appeasement and favor a strong defense. They support Ukraine. They support NATO. They understand Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are enemies. And they want the president to work with Congress to restore American primacy.” – Mitch McConnell, Republican Senator, KY. From...

DURABLE GOODS (WSJ)
“Demand for U.S. durable goods was up in September, according to data published by the Commerce Department. Total orders for durable goods—which comprise goods meant to last three years or more—increased $6.3 billion to $345.4 billion, following a 0.1% August increase.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/durable-goods-orders-rose-in-september-8e82e1cd
 
NEW HOME SALES (Journal.com)
“Sales of new US single-family homes fell in September, partially reversing the prior month’s jump, as higher mortgage rates because of the Middle East conflict depressed demand.” Story at…
https://journalrecord.com/2026/10/27/us-new-home-sales-slip-september-rising-mortgage-rates/
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board via PRnewswire.com)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose by 7.5 points to 91.7 (1985=100) in October, up from 84.2 in September (a slight upward revision)… "Consumer confidence advanced in October, driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions," said Fergus McCormick, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board. "The recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October. Yet, despite the increase in October, consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend that's persisted over the past few years. Consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months. This likely reflected higher price levels and persistent inflation, which eroded consumers' purchasing power." From...
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose to 7723.
-VIX declined to 17.52.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TUESDAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -9 to -1 (1 More Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
If we look at only the Bull indicators, we note that the 20-dMA of bull indicators reversed higher Tuesday. That’s a good sign. Perhaps the long stock market malaise is ending.
 
Patience appears to have paid off – the S&P 500 moved back above its 50-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but concerned.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TUESDAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - MONDAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.