… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
SCHUMER STRIKES AGAIN
“America is crying out for relief from high costs, and you’re here adding $140 billion to an agency that nobody — two groups — Border Patrol and ICE, that nobody respects in this country.” – Chuck Schumer. Democrat, Senate Minority Leader. 
    My cmt: It’s this kind of politically absurd comment that might keep Democrats from taking over the House and Senate at the mid-term elections. The Democrats are still preventing funding TSA. Only Trump’s emergency order to fund them has stopped the airport delays, missed flights, and reporting of the failed Democrat policies. And for the record, again, I despise the MAGA Republicans too. On a different but related subject, the Budget policies of our Politicians are destroying this country. Tax-and-Spend Democrats or Cut-Tax-and-Spend Republicans – it makes no difference.
 
UNUSUAL FEAR GAUGE (CNBC)
“The VIX and S&P do move in tandem about 20% of the time, but if a "VIX-up/stocks-up" environment lingers for more than a few days it means a few things are likely happening under the surface of the market. One explanation is simply that investors are doubtful of new highs in stocks and hedging against risks like the Iran war and crude oil…
…A more bullish interpretation – one that fits with what we see in options trading around earnings – is that traders are willing to buy expensive premiums in upside calls…That enthusiasm is keeping options prices inflated, which could help explain why VIX is so sticky.” Story at…
Wall Street's 'fear gauge' is doing something unusual. What it means
 
RECESSION RISK (Moneywise)
"’Recession risks thus remain uncomfortably high, with close to even odds of a downturn in the coming year," Zandi [Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics]wrote on X. "So says our leading recession indicator.’… Zandi argues that…the job market has been rather flat since "Liberation Day" a year ago, when the Trump administration's sweeping tariffs took effect and hiring slowed down…If you take out health care, which is the only sector that's still consistently adding jobs, the rest of the economy has been shedding them. ‘Without health care,’ he says, ‘the economy would be losing jobs.’ Zandi also places a share of the blame on two big forces: the Trump administration's tariffs, and the sharply restrictive immigration policies. "’The tariffs are cutting increasingly deeply into the profits of American companies and the purchasing power of American households,’ he said on X (10). ‘Fewer immigrant workers means a smaller economy.’" Story at…
Moody's top economist says the US job market is already in decline — and the risks of a recession are 'uncomfortably high'
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7165.
-VIX declined about 3% to 18.71.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.306% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers
 
The Bearish Outside Reversal signal from yesterday is canceled today since the S&P 500 closed above yesterday’s high.
 
Markets continue to power higher while the indicators drift down. This diversion is a concern, but with 10 more bullish indictors than bearish, the markets are in decent shape. Until the S&P 500 confirms the indicator downtrend, there is no point in worrying, but I remain somewhat cautious.
 
Here’s an interesting chart that tracks Top and Bottom signals. Buy signals occur when the chart reaches +5; Sell signals are at -6. The current value is -3, but we can see that the chart is better at calling Buy-signals.
 

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Jobless Claims … KC Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

   

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

 

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

 

DEBT WARNING – US MAY CEASE TO BE A GREAT POWER (Fortune)

“Interest payments on the U.S. national debt are set to surpass $1 trillion in 2026, some $88 billion a month—equal to spending on defense and education combined… An excess of debt over defense is a violation of Ferguson’s Law, as described by Hoover Institution economic historian Sir Niall Ferguson in a working paper published earlier this year. Ferguson’s Law states that “any great power that spends more on debt servicing than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power. This is because the debt burden draws scarce resources towards itself, reducing the amount available for national security, and leaving the power increasingly vulnerable to military challenge.”

When interest on national debt overtook military spending, it triggered a limit where the US may cease to be a great power, warns Hoover historian

 

VIRGINIA’S RACE TO THE GERRYMANDER BOTTOM (WSJ)

“The gerrymander race to the bottom escalated on Tuesday as Democrats in Virginia won a narrow victory to redraw their state map to add as many as four Democratic House seats. This is bad news for GOP control of the House in November, but Republicans can also blame President Trump for starting this rolling rock that has now come down on their heads… Barack Obama on Tuesday hailed Virginia for “stand[ing] up for our democracy,” but the vote effectively ends competitive elections for Congress in most of the state. This is why voters don’t take seriously Democratic complaints about GOP threats to democracy… The main accomplishment of this gerrymander free-for-all will be to further polarize the U.S. House. The number of competitive seats in the general election will shrink. Party primaries will increasingly be the only real competition, and that will drive candidates to court the most partisan voters. The result will be more fools and posers like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Jasmine Crockett in Congress.” Opinion at…

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/virginia-gerrymander-democrats-house-congress-abigail-spanberger-69bf939b?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

My cmt: I heard a Constitutional expert (Professor Brad Jacob from Regent University) speak on the subject today. He said it was very likely that the Virginia gerrymander election will be nullified by the courts. A District court in Virginia has already ruled it invalid. There are two issues facing the Virginia Supreme Court when it is appealed: (1) The vote was not timed properly – it’s too close to the election in November. (2) The wording of the amendment on the ballot was misleading and confusing.

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)

“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits inched up last week but remains within the historically healthy range of recent years. U.S. jobless aid applications for the week ending April 18 rose by 6,000 to 214,000…” Story at…

https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-bf89154a8f200cc53b08b6ce41d787b0

 

KC FED MANUFACTURING (KC Fed)

“Tenth District manufacturing activity grew further, while expectations for future activity rose slightly from last month. Raw materials prices increased sharply this month, while fewer firms reported increasing their finished product prices…. This month, contacts were asked special questions about changes in energy costs and ability to pass through energy-related costs. Almost all (93%) of firms reported that they have experienced higher transportation costs in the last two months…” - WSJ Editorial Board. Story at…

https://www.kansascityfed.org/surveys/manufacturing-survey/tenth-district-manufacturing-activity-grew-further-in-april/

 

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY

-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7110.

-VIX rose about 5% to 19.85.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.333% (compared to about this time prior market day).

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS

SPY – Added 12/1/2025.

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026

“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  

Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:

At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

 

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +13 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers

 

Today, Thursday, there was another Bearish Outside Reversal Day. We saw another one Tuesday.

The Bearish Outside Reversal signal remains in place until the S&P 500 closes above the high on the Reversal Day. 

“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.

 

The conflict/war in Iran continues to muddy the stock-market water. With the ceasefire extended by three weeks we may see more gains in the market – it’s anyone’s guess since the market is war-news driven. For now, indicators are slowly falling so I am cautious.

 

BOTTOM LINE

I am cautiously bullish.

 

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

                                              

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

   

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

 

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

 

LETTERS WSJ (WSJ)

“The calculus is simple in Democrats’ minds—President Trump and anyone or any nation aligned with him irrespective of geopolitical prerogatives is bad. Thus we find our most loyal ally in the fraught Middle East, Israel, a critically important combat and intelligence asset in the present war against the Islamist government in Iran, the subject of a Democratic fatwa against the supply of American arms.

These Democrats are aligning with an existential enemy of the Jewish state and their own government to try to gin up votes against Republicans, using the nascent antisemitic frenzy of their base to curry the vote. Such is the low state of a once proud political party.” - Paul Bloustein. WSJ letters at…

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-democrats-fatwa-on-u-s-arms-to-israel-ff291a0e?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos7

 

VIRGINIA VOTERS APPROVE GERRYMANDERING (CBS)

“Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a new congressional map that would give Democrats an advantage in 10 House districts, leaving just one safe Republican seat…”

Story at…

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/virginia-redistricting-results-gerrymandering/

My cmt: This is a clear case of Tyranny of the Majority. The majority, 51.5% of Virginia voters, will allow Democrats to redraw Congressional Districts. Currently, there are 6 Democrat and 5 Republican Districts, a fair distribution for our Democrat leading Commonwealth. After the Democrat Gerrymander, there will be only 1 Republican seat. This effectively takes away honest representation from nearly half the voters in Virginia. The stated reason is to counter Trump’s actions in other states. While I am no fan of Trump, watching a Virginia Democrat majority trample on the rights of millions of fellow Virginians is despicable.  

 

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY

-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 7138.

-VIX declined about 3% to 18.92.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.307% (compared to about this time prior market day).

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS

SPY – Added 12/1/2025.

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026

“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  

Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:

At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

 

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +14 to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers

 

The drop in the 10-day spread of Bulls minus Bears is a concern, but there is no reason to worry too much. We can watch and see where it goes.

 

The Bearish Outside Reversal signal from yesterday is canceled today since the S&P 500 closed above yesterday’s high.

 

I won’t chase this market, but as the war news gets better, I may get more comfortable with adding to stock positions. As a retiree, I am conservative. It is better not to lose than it is to worry about making every penny.

 

BOTTOM LINE

I am cautiously bullish. I don’t expect declines from here to be large, but it all depends on the news.

 

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

                                              

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

   

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

 

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

 

JUSTICE THOMAS - WSJ LETTER (WSJ)

“Justice Thomas’s remarks were brilliant and he raised numerous excellent points. But the most important of these points is that the Constitution was designed to protect us from “excessive democracy.” The Founders recognized that pure democracies were short-lived, volatile and prone to devolve into tyranny. We are a constitutional republic, and our present inability to recognize the differences between this and a democracy threatens to undermine the protections that the Founders set. We see this in attacks on the Electoral College, the filibuster and the structure of the Senate. Most ominous, however, are attacks on the Supreme Court from both left and right. The court is, at present, the only properly functioning branch of government and the last bulwark against attempts to undermine that brilliant document that is the Constitution.” - Jim Reardon

My cmt: Virginia is currently experimenting with “tyranny of the majority” in a Gerrymandering Constitutional Amendment. It asks voters to abandon a 6-year-old Constitutional Amendment that established a non-partisan redistricting procedure. In its place, Democrats request the power to turn the Commonwealth from 6 Democratic and 5 Republican held Congressional Districts to 10 Democrat and 1 Republican. The stated reason is to counter Donald Trump. In other words, thru fear and false promises, the majority (assuming the Amendment passes) will remove representation from millions of Virginians and provide representatives who will vote against the desires of the voters in those Republican leaning Districts. That’s “excessive democracy” in action where the majority screws the minority.  

 

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY

-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 7064.

-VIX rose about 3% to 19.50.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.299% (compared to about this time prior market day).

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS

SPY – Added 12/1/2025.

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026

“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  

Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:

At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

 

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +15 to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers

 

Today, Tuesday, was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.

The Bearish Outside Reversal signal remains in place until the S&P 500 closes above the high on the Reversal Day. 

“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.

 

I won’t chase this market, but as the war news gets better, I may get more comfortable with adding to stock positions. As a retiree, I am conservative. It is better not to lose than it is to worry about making every penny.

 

BOTTOM LINE

I am cautiously bullish. I don’t expect declines from here to be large, but it all depends on the news.

 

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

                                              

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

 

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

   

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

 

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

 

INVESTING OR GAMBLING (WSJ - Excerpt)

“The biggest danger isn’t that the markets can go crazy, but that they’ll make you go crazy, too. The war in Iran is a seething stalemate, the price of oil is up about 60% this year, inflation jumped to 3.3% in March—and still U.S. stocks set all-time highs this week. A kind of gambling fever seems to be setting in…

…With the stock market marching upward as if all is right in the world, and with gambling behavior becoming the norm around us, it’s more important than ever to ask yourself a few questions before you make any trade. Here’s a simple checklist: Have I segregated this account from my long-term investments? Am I trading to make money or to have fun? What do I know that the person on the other side of this trade doesn’t? How do I know it? Am I willing to keep track of all my trades to see whether I’m making money on them overall? 

You won’t fall into a downward spiral of impulsive trading if you require yourself to pause and think before any gamble.” - Jason Zweig. WSJ, The Intelligent Investor column. Full commentary at… 

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/its-getting-harder-to-tell-investing-from-gambling-and-its-not-your-fault-3973ddd5

 

WARREN BUFFETT’S 90/10 RULE (Investopedia)

“Warren Buffett's 90/10 strategy involves allocating 90% of assets to a low-cost S&P 500 index fund and 10% to short-term government bonds.

-The 90/10 rule offers simplicity, lower fees, and the potential for higher returns.

-The strategy is based on historical returns for the S&P 500, as well as Buffett's skepticism about the performance of the average fund manager.

-Critics say such a high allocation to equities isn't suitable for all investors, particularly those nearing retirement or already retired.” …

How Warren Buffett's 90/10 rule simplifies investing for average investors

 

RALLY HAS ROOM TO RUN (MarketWatch)

“McElligott [Nomura strategist] believes this market upswing could go on for a while, because of just how underexposed investors have been.

But there are two things that could bring it to a halt, the Nomura strategist warns. The first is if May starts to show the signs of a “physical energy gut-punch from the actual barrels and petrochem-shortages.” Subsequent higher prices on those commodities could see central banks panic into tightening interest rates given the energy supply shock, and that leads to his second potential flag — a bond-market selloff. He sees that possible as fears over energy shortages and rate hikes could trigger “eventual negative growth shocks around the world,” potentially dragging major economies into recession. Once bond yields start rising, markets could get spooked, halting the current chase higher for markets.” Story at…

Why this market rally still has room to run — until these two signals flash

 

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY

-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7109.

-VIX rose about 8% to 18.87.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.248% (compared to about this time prior market day).

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS

SPY – Added 12/1/2025.

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026

“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  

Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:

At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

 

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers

 

RSI and the Advance/Decline Ratio both remain overbought. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little more weakness in the markets. Overall though, indicators look very good and I don’t expect declines to be big. A retest of the prior low is possible, but not likely.

 

Surprisingly, Sentiment remains bearish. I measure Sentiment as a 5-day average of %-Bulls (Bulls/{bulls+bears}) based on the amounts invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim mutual funds. The recent decline in sentiment is bearish enough, on a standard deviation basis, to be sending a bullish signal. That suggests that the market can go higher; I expect that it will, perhaps after some more weakness.

 

I won’t chase this market, but as the war news gets better, I may get more comfortable with adding to stock positions. As a retiree, I am conservative. It is better not to lose than it is to worry about making every penny.

 

BOTTOM LINE

I am bullish, but markets are overdue for a down-day.

 

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

                                              

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.