Thursday, April 16, 2026

Philly Fed … Jobless Claims … Industrial Production … … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
TRUMP ATTORNEY DISBARRED (NBC News)
“John Eastman, a former attorney for President Donald Trump who helped engineer a last-ditch strategy to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, was disbarred in California on Wednesday over his efforts more than five years ago. The California Supreme Court said in a filing that Eastman could no longer practice law in the state, upholding a State Bar Court recommendation, and ordered him to pay $5,000 in sanctions.” Story at…
 
PHILLY FED INDEX (Sharecast)
“Manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia region strengthened sharply in April, with the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index rising to 26.7 from 18.1 in March - its highest reading since January 2025 and well above expectations…” Story at…
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
"U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, remaining in the range of the past few years even as the war in Iran continues to threaten the global economy. The number of Americans applying for jobless aid for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000 from the previous week’s 218,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.” Story at… 
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Plastics Today)
“US factory production unexpectedly fell in March after two straight months of solid gains, according to data compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Manufacturing output dipped 0.1% last month…” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7041, a new high.
-VIX declined about 1% to 17.94.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.313% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers. We’ll keep an eye on the 10-day.
 
Today’s Overbought indicators were: RSI; Advance / Decline Ratio; and the fact that 9 out of the last 10 trading days have been up.   Bollinger Bands were not overbought today. If both RSI and Bollinger Bands are overbought tomorrow it would be a strong signal that the overdue down-day will be forthcoming.
 
I heard Tom Lee on CNBC say that the stock market was in better shape at this new, all-time high compared to what it looked like at the last all-time high in January. That might be true if one were looking at PE. Trailing PE is now 26.8. At the prior high the trailing PE was 29.9, about 12% higher. But New, all-time highs for the S&P 500 give us an opportunity to check the health of the stock market. There were only 79 new-highs Thursday. That suggests that the markets are too concentrated and lack breadth.
 
This signal warns of a strong possibility of a correction greater than 10%. All we can do now is watch other indicators over time to see if they confirm or refute this indication.
 
The bull-Bear spread pretty still looks good, but failing breadth at a top is a real concern. We’ll see what develops.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
Posted by at

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

NY Fed Manufacturing … NAHB Housing Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

I'm having formatting issues. I'll try and fix it tomorrow.


"Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

   

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

 

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

 

NY FED MANUFACTURING (New York Fed)

“Business activity increased moderately in New York State in April, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose eleven points to 11.0. New orders and shipments increased significantly. Unfilled orders rose and delivery times lengthened. Supply availability worsened somewhat. Employment expanded and the average workweek increased. The pace of input price increases picked up sharply after slowing last month, while the pace of selling price increases was little changed. Firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead, though optimism moderated and capital spending plans weakened.” Story at…

https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview

 

NAHB HOUSING INDEX (NAHB)

“The latest HMI survey also revealed that 36% of builders cut prices in April, down slightly from 37% in March. The average price reduction was 5%, down from the 6% figure in March. The use of sales incentives was 60% in April, down from 64% in March, and marking the 13th consecutive month this share has reached 60% or higher.” Story at…

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index

 

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY

-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7023, a new high.

-VIX declined about 1% to 18.7.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.281% (compared to about this time prior market day).

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS

SPY – Added 12/1/2025.

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026

“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  

Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:

At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

 

TODAY’S COMMENT

The S&P 500 made a new high so the correction is officially over.

Correction Drop: 9.1%

Top to Bottom: 43 Trading-days (27 Jan – 30 Mar 2026)

I cut the stock portfolio on 10 February when the S&P 500 was about ½% below the market top.

We got a weak, buy-signal 2 days before the bottom.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +17 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers. We’ll keep an eye on the 10-day.

 

The S&P 500 made a new all-time high Wednesday. New, all-time highs for the S&P 500 give us an opportunity to check the health of the stock market. Specifically, we look at market breadth to make sure there is plenty of participation across the market. Ruh-roh! I have a really bad feeling about this. The S&P 500 made a new high today (Wednesday), but there were important warning signs. Only 74 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today and only 49% of stocks in the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-dMA’s. These signals warn of a strong possibility of a correction greater than 10%. All we can do now is watch other indicators over time to see if they confirm or refute this indication.

 

Unchanged volume was very high today suggesting confusion among investors. Some think this represents a reversal from investors and that selling will follow. Since this indicator is often wrong, it is not one of my indicators.

 

There were also a couple of overbought indicators: Bollinger Bands; Advance / Decline Ratio; and the fact that 8 out of the last 10 trading days have been up.   

 

The bull-Bear spread pretty still looks good, but failing breadth at a top is a real concern. We’ll see what develops.

 

BOTTOM LINE

I am cautiously bullish.

 

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

                                              

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023
Posted by at

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Still too busy….

 
…to do a full post, but what’s to add? Markets keep powering higher.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 6886.
-VIX declined about 4% to 18.36.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.244% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 21 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The image shows a technical chart with the S&P 500 index plotted against various indicators, including a bullish-to-bearish ratio, and includes dates for key price points and potential future predictions. AI-generated content may be incorrect.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
Very bullish indicators. I am not trading, cause I am too occupied, but I am already fully invested.
 
Today’s new bearish indicators are associated with overbought conditions; a retreat is overdue, but not a big downturn - more likely a day or two to reset.
Posted by at

Monday, April 13, 2026

Too Busy

 
…to do a full post, but what’s to add from last week?
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 6886.
-VIX declined about 0.6% to 19.12.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.285% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +18 to +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
Very bullish indicators. I am not trading cause I am too occupied, but I am already fully invested.
Posted by at

Friday, April 10, 2026

CPI … Sentiment …Factory Orders … Durable Goods … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
STOCK MARKET CORRECTON NOT OVER (Market Watch)
“The U.S. stock-market correction has more downside ahead, according to contrarian analysts. That’s because the mood on Wall Street in March and early April hasn’t been pessimistic enough to trigger a contrarian buy signal.
Instead, short-term stock-market timers have remained relatively bullish during the Iran war that began on Feb. 28. And after a two-week cease-fire was announced, market-timers stayed bullish.” Story at…
 
CPI (CNN)
“A war-driven jump in gas prices helped push US inflation to 3.3% in March, marking the fastest annual pace in nearly two years, new Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed Friday. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.9%, triple the 0.3% pace seen in February…” Story at…
 
UNIV OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago. Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index…Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025…” Report at…
 
FACTORY ORDERS (Yahoo Finance)
“New orders for U.S. factory goods were unchanged for a second ‌straight month in February as weak demand ‌for commercial aircraft offset gains elsewhere.” Story at…
 
DURABLE GOODS (ABA Banking Journal)
“New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased $4.4 billion, or 1.4%, from the previous month to $315.5 billion in February, the U.S. Census Bureau said in its most recent advance report.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6817.
-VIX declined about 1% to 19.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.317% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 2 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 2.3% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: 2.3%
Trading Days since top: 61. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +16 to +18 (18 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
The bull-Bear spread pretty much says it all. They are extremely bullish. The monkey wrench in the works is the news. Will the Middle East issues be resolved? I don’t know and no point in guessing.
 
I am fully invested for a retired guy and I see no reason to take on more risk. In general, most investors have decided the war poses little risk and we see that in the bullish indicators.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I may add a small % to the stock portfolio soon, but I won’t be making any big moves.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Thursday, April 9, 2026

Fed Minutes … Personal Income & Spending … PCE Prices … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
STRAIT OF HORMUZ STAYS SHUT (Axios – 7pm Thursday)
“President Trump on Thursday demanded Iran stop charging tolls for tankers to cross the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran's supreme leader promised the country would control the crucial waterway.
Why it matters: The already shaky ceasefire between the two countries is getting more strained by the day, even as they prepare for peace talks in Islamabad on Saturday.” Story at…
 
IRAN ATTACKS SAUDI PIPELINE (CNBC)
“Saudi Arabia’s critical pipeline to the Red Sea suffered a recent attack from Iran, cutting throughput by 700,000 barrels per day. The attack hit a pumping station on the East-West pipeline, according to a state-news agency report. This pipeline brings crude oil from processing facilities near the Persian Gulf to an export terminal on the Red Sea called Yanbu.” Story at…
 
FED MINUTES (Axios)
“Some Federal Reserve officials wanted to keep interest rate increases on the table, given the stubborn inflation that was set to be amplified by the Iran war, according to minutes from the central bank's March 17-18 policy meeting, released Wednesday…"Many participants judged that, in time, it would likely become appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations," the minutes show.” Story at…
 
PERSONAL INCOME / SPENDING / PCE PRICES (Yahoo Finance)
“Personal incomes in the United States fell by $18.2 billion in February as inflation maintained a seasonally adjusted rate of 3%, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.
The decrease in personal income is about a 0.1% drop in spending power… February's 3% [PCE] index excludes volatile food and energy. The all-items inflation rate for the month was 2.8%.
My cmt: 2.8% PCE inflation data was posted before the Iran attacks. It remains above the Fed 2% target.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans applying for jobless aid for the week ending April 4 jumped by 16,000 to 219,000 from the previous week’s 203,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That’s more than the 210,000 new filings analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet were expecting but within the range of the past several years.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6825.
-VIX fell about 7% to 19.49.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.287% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 2.2% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: 2.5%
Trading Days since top: 60. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +15 to +16 (16 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
The bull-Bear spread pretty much says it all. It is giving a very bullish signal. Investors have decided that the Iran conflict poses no threat to the economy.
 
I am fully invested for a retired guy and I see no reason to take on more risk. In general, most investors have decided the war poses little risk and we see that in the bullish indicators. I don’t know; the news stories above could lead to a ground war with Iran. Iran has been emboldened by their control of the world’s oi supply via the Strait of Hormuz. 

 

I've been saying it for a while; the bottom is in. 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I may add a small % to the stock portfolio soon, but I won’t be making any big moves.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Wednesday, April 8, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
WAR NEWS (MS Now)
“Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran,” Trump said in his social media post Tuesday night…That 10-point plan, the one Trump called “a workable basis on which to negotiate” on Tuesday night? On Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called it “fundamentally unserious, unacceptable and completely discarded,” claiming the president literally threw it in the garbage.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 2.5% to 6783.
-VIX fell about 18% to 21.04.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.293% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 2.8% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: 1.9%
Trading Days since top: 59. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +4 to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
There were a host of new bullish indicators today. A few are:
-Sentiment was bearish yesterday as retail investors bet against the markets. Too much bearishness is bullish.
-There was a big bullish jump in the indicators.
-The S&P 500 closed above its 200-dMA and finished slightly above its 50-dMA.
-My 50-dMA breadth-indicator has been bearish; today it finally turned bullish.
 
I have been saying for several days that the bottom was in.  There won’t be many arguing about that after today.
 
Tomorrow should be a down day based on the big move higher today. I’ll add some to the stock portfolio if I have the time. Tomorrow will be a busy day so I expect to post the blog late.
 
Stocks could still retest the low depending on the news. My guess is that there will not be a retest, but who knows? As the “War News” story above indicates, we don’t really know what’s going on.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I will add a small % to the stock portfolio, barring unforeseen issues.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at
Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)