Navigate the Stock Market

Monday, October 26, 2026

National Activity Index … Dallas Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

When I heard Trump’s DOJ was suing about election interference in Alaska, I thought, “Oh no, here we go!” Apparently, it’s more nuanced than that.
DECOY DAN (WSJ - Excerpt)
“Democrats pulled a dirty trick by enlisting a decoy, Daniel J. Sullivan [no party affiliation], to run against Republican Alaska Sen. Dan S. Sullivan. Now they are indignant that the Trump Administration on Thursday filed a lawsuit that calls attention to their subterfuge. Please spare us the lectures about election interference… Democrats deny they are behind the ruse, but their fingerprints are all over it. Daniel J. Sullivan voted for Democrats in the prior three presidential elections and for Democratic nominee Mary Peltola when she ran for the House. There’s evidence that a Democratic consultant also helped launch his campaign… The lawsuit is a legal Hail Mary, but its real purpose before the election is to educate Alaska voters now beginning to pay attention about the Democratic trick. Who’s really undermining trust in elections?” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-administration-lawsuit-alaska-senate-race-dan-sullivan-64bd9f90
My cmt: Daniel J Sullivan is a retired teacher who formerly worked for the US Forest Service. He says he is running on his own accord. It takes a lot of effort to get on a ballot in most states, but not Alaska. Alaska does not require a petition of the state’s voters to be a Senatorial candidate. Given that fact, it is surprising there aren’t more candidates running. But I guess most Alaskans know that without an advertising budget, there is no chance of being elected; so why waste the $300 filing fee?

JUSTICE KAGAN – DEMOCRACY (WSJ -Excerpt)
“Justice Kagan has to her credit mostly resisted the vitriolic criticisms that her liberal colleagues, Sonia Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson, have leveled against the Court’s conservatives… But this week, in the heat of the midterm election, she couldn’t resist taking the majority to task. “The court has . . . blinded itself to the very deleterious effects of their rulings on how the political system works,” Justice Kagan said during a discussion at Catholic University’s law school in Washington, D.C… Justice Kagan also said in her remarks that the Court’s recent decision to limit the use of race in drawing district lines discounted the damage to the districts of black Democrats in the South. “The court kind of said, ‘Oh well,’” Justice Kagan said.
No, it didn’t. The majority properly explained that carving up districts by race is a sordid business that violates the Constitution. It’s hard to see how guaranteeing a seat by race is democratic… Justice Kagan is right that partisan gerrymanders at the current political moment are reducing the number of competitive elections and “driving people away from the center, toward the wings, toward the extremes,” as she put it. But that dishonor belongs to the political classes, not to the Justices.” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/elena-kagan-democracy-gerrymandering-district-maps-judges-d9e4adec

NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Seeking Alpha)
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.07 in September, exceeding the -0.1 consensus and indicating increased economic growth compared with August's -0.08 reading (revised from -0.04), according to data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on Monday.” Commentary at…
https://www.tradingview.com/news/seekingalpha:72842de2f094b:0-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-swings-to-positive-territory-in-september/

DALLAS FED MFRG INDEX (Dallas Fed)
“Texas manufacturing output growth eased in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 14 points to 15.8, but remained above its series average, indicating a slower yet still solid pace of expansion.” Report at…
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2026/2610

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 7677.
-VIX declined about 5% to 18.39.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.997% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -10 to -9 (9 More Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

We’ve seen 3 consecutive closes below the lower trend line at the 50-dMA, but I have not sold yet. I guess I could be reducing stock holdings, but declines have been very small and there have been some improvement in breadth. I remain in a wait-and-see mode. Mr. Market has a way of shaking out the weak hands. I don’t want to be a weak hand. The S&P 500 is only 1.8% below its all-time high.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but concerned.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, October 23, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

TRUMP IS ORDERING THE SLOWDOWN (CNBC)
“SpaceX’s Starlink internet system continues to be throttled in Ukraine as the stakes rise for the war-torn country, Ukrainian officials and a national security expert said Friday. ‘Every day matters for Ukraine, because every Ukrainian life matters,’ wrote Denys Sienik, Ukraine’s deputy ambassador to the U.S., in a Friday post on X.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/ukraine-says-starlink-restrictions-remain-despite-trump-assurances.html
My cmt: Since Ukraine continued to attack refineries, Trump is withholding internet speeds that Ukraine needs for self-defense and offensive capability. Yes, I know, Musk controls the technology thru his company; but Musk is not doing this on his own. Trump thinks that fuel from Russia will lower gas prices and will help in the mid-term election. He needs the House to be Republican or he will get impeached again.

FRACTURING MARKET (MarketWatch)
“The artificial-intelligence trade is on the ropes. CNN’s “Fear & Greed” index is screaming fear, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note just clinched its biggest daily drop since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
All the drama was enough to send the S&P 500 down by more than 1% on Thursday, its worst showing since July. Yet at the same time, more than 300 individual S&P 500 stocks finished higher. Investors haven’t seen such a dramatic divergence between the index and its member stocks since January 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data…
…Rather than pulling their money from the market, investors are increasingly shuffling money from one pocket to the other, said Farzin Azarm, a managing director of equities trading at Mizuho Americas….
…Others took a more downbeat view. The divergence between index performance and stock-market breadth has reached extreme levels in 2026, as BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky pointed out in commentary shared with MarketWatch on Thursday.
The S&P 500 has moved in the opposite direction from most of its members during more than 30% of all trading days in 2026, by far the most in any calendar year going back to 1996. If the past is any guide, extreme dispersion among the index’s constituents can only continue for so long.
“At some point, we believe the constant rotation stops and we see a higher-correlation selloff,” Krinsky wrote.” Story at…
The US stock market is fracturing into two camps, and it’s leaving investors with a brutal case of whiplash

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 fell about 0.5% to 7624.
-VIX rose about 2% to 19.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.999% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -4 to -10 (10 More Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

We saw consecutive closes below the lower trend line at the 50-dMA, but I have not sold yet.

The S&P 500 is now at a level that is no higher than it was in early June. This is more of an oddity than any kind of signal of what’s to come. It shows once again that the markets have been in a long, sideways correction. The most recent, prior-low in this malaise was when the S&P 500 closed near the 100-dMA in mid-September. The S&P 500 is now about 0.25% above the 100-day. The 100-day is often a low on small declines.

The S&P 500 is only 2.5% below its all-time high, so I haven’t been inclined to cut stock holdings. Timing small declines is not a winning game and indicators have not been weak enough to get me out of the market.

The decline in semi-conductors took a break today as the SOXX was up 0.5%. If the decline ends it is likely that other stocks will end their slide.

Was today a bottom? Probably not; volume was down, but other Internals were weak. There is a caveat on this prediction. Small declines give small signals. Volumes were lower today and sometimes that is enough to suggest an end to selling

Indicators declined today. I think the 100-dMA is the line in the sand.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but still concerned.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, October 22, 2026

Jobless Claims … Leading Economic Index … KC Fed Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -4 (4 More Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign.

Unchanged volume was high again today (Thursday) suggesting confusion among investors. Some think this represents a reversal. Indicators are in the neutral zone so it is hard to say which way a reversal would go. This signal is often wrong, so it is not one of my indicators

S&P 500 closed 0.7% below its 50-dMA. The Index is now about 2.2% below its all-time high. Curiously, some breadth signs are improving – there were 105 new, 52-week highs today and only 53 new-highs yesterday. Normally, I check this stat at all-time highs. We expect it to be lower on days when the markets decline. When we see breadth improving on declines it suggests markets are nearing a bottom.

Unfortunately, volumes overall were higher today suggesting that today was not a bottom. Bottoms occur when selling dries up and volume falls, but the improving breadth may suggest that further declines will be less than my previous warnings of a possible 10% decline.

Thursday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time,

Bottoms almost always occur on/or near Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms. Today could be a short-term bottom, but there were no bullish Bottom Indicators.

The S&P 500 broke below the Rising Wedge pattern. Once again, I am looking to see if there will be consecutive closes below the lower trend line at the 50-dMA.

We’re getting mixed signals with some signs worse and some better so I’ll just have to wait and see what comes next.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but still concerned.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Crude Inventories … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

From…
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 7757.
-VIX declined about 4% to 16.68.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 5.107% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -7 to -4 (4 More Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.

Unchanged volume was very high today (Wednesday) suggesting confusion among investors. Some think this represents a reversal. Since the S&P 500 chart is close to flat recently it is hard to say which way a reversal would go. This signal is often wrong, so it is not one of my indicators

S&P 500 closed 0.7% above its 50-dMA and less than 1% from an all-time high, but there were only 53 new-highs on the NYSE. That represents a narrow advance and still leaves a possibility of a >10% decline if there is a correction.

The Rising Wedge pattern is still in play. The S&P 500 needs to break convincingly above the upper trend line to cancel it. That would take new, all-time highs.

The markets are entering earnings season. It feels like the mood in the market has changed to the bullish side, but I am not convinced yet.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but still concerned.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Housing Starts / Permits … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -7 (7 More Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Tuesday, there was a bullish outside reversal pattern on the charts.
“A Bullish Outside Reversal is a two-day technical analysis candlestick pattern that signals a potential reversal of a downtrend, indicating that buyers (bulls) have taken control from sellers (bears). It occurs when the current session's price range completely engulfs the previous session's range [today’s high was higher than yesterday; today’s low was lower than yesterday], often appearing as a Bullish Engulfing pattern” – Investopedia.

S&P 500 closed 0.1% above its 50-dMA. The 50-dMA is normally the lower, trend line or close to it. Consecutive closes below the trendline (50-dMA) are considered by many to signal a trend change. The Index was below its 50-day Friday and Monday, but not today, Tuesday. The Index is flirting with the 50-day; as long as it stays above it, I am not making changes to the portfolio.

The McClellan Oscillator is bullish; other Breadth measures still look weak.

I am watching indicators and the S&P 500 chart. Indicators are bearish, but not drastically so. Still, we need to remember that we have already seen weak breadth at the all-time high and that suggests that if we do see a correction, it is likely to be greater than a 10% decline.

The markets are entering earnings season. Perhaps good earnings will put an end to the weakness? The S&P 500 is only 1.4% below the all-time high, so far, the weakness isn’t too weak.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but leaning bearish until we can see more bullish signs.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, October 19, 2026

NAHB Housing Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -5 to -7 (7 More Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign.

I am watching indicators and the S&P 500 chart. Indicators are bearish, but not drastically so.

The chart of the Index might be considered bearish. S&P 500 rose, but still closed 0.2% below its 50-dMA. The 50-dMA is normally the lower, trend line or close to it. Consecutive closes below the trendline (50-dMA) are considered by many to signal a trend change. Is 0.2% close enough to be ok? Do I sell? No.

I am holding on for now. I want to see if the S&P 500 continues higher. Volumes are lower than they were at prior recent lows so we may have seen a bottom, at least for a while. I’m not confident in that view since volumes alone are not a great predictor for bottoms. Still, the Index is only 1.6% from its all-time high, so there is no rush to sell even if we begin to see faster declines.

The McClellan Oscillator is bullish, but just barely. Breadth still looks weak.

Importantly, we have already seen weak breadth at the all-time high and that suggests that if we do see a correction, it is likely to be greater than a 10% decline.

I’ll be watching to see if the S&P 500 closes below its 50-dMA again; that would be more evidence of a trend break and I will need to consider reducing stock holdings somewhat. The size of stock sales, if we do see the trend break, will depend on signals from other indicators.

So far, there are still 7 bull-indicators and that is not bad.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but leaning bearish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)