Navigate the Stock Market

Thursday, April 18, 2024

Leading Economic Index ... Jobless Claims ... Philly Fed Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/21/philly-fed-manufacturing-index-expanded-march-2024

EXISTING HOME SALES (NAR)
“Existing-home sales retreated 4.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million. Sales fell 3.7% from the previous year.” Press release at...
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-descended-4-3-in-march

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 0.2% to 5011.
-VIX rose about 1% to 18.00.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.637%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.

XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
Salesforce was down over 7% Monday. News follows: “Salesforce (CRM) is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire data management software company Informatica (INFA), according to a Wall Street Journal report. The potential acquisition would allow Salesforce to boost its data integration and management capabilities by tapping into Informatica's product suite.” – Yahoo Finance.

DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index .)

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, the 50-indicator spread (Bulls minus Bears) remained 18 bear-signs and 7-Bull (the rest are neutral).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Markets were up in the morning, but faded around mid-day and closed with a loss. Mr. Market didn’t agree with my opinion (yesterday) that the pullback might be over. Since we didn’t get the strong up-day, I didn’t add to stock positions. The confirmation of a bottom is bullish market action. We still have bottom indicators: Both Bollinger Bands and RSI are oversold. In addition, one of the CNBC contributors noted that the McClellan Oscillator was oversold today.

I noted earlier that there was support in the 5000 area on the S&P 500. We aren’t far from there now, so it still looks like the pullback is winding down.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral; VOLUME is bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is winding down.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.

Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Crude Inventory ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Stephen Weiss, Founder and Managing Partner, Short Hills Capital Partners, is a CNBC regular. He was on CNBC’s Halftime Report today. Mr. Weiss took his stock holding down to 20% in his portfolio. He says the Fed rate hikes, “higher-for-longer,” will take the economy down and that he wouldn’t buy this weakness. Weiss said, “Every time rates have been restrictive, GDP has gone down markedly.”

First, 20% is an extremely conservative position indicating extreme fear. I’ve always used a value of 30% invested as my most conservative stock holding; if there was a market crash that took the stock market down 50% I would only lose 15%.

Mr. Weiss’s comments are not looking for a short-term drop since he is citing the economy as his reason for cutting stock holdings. Interesting, but the economy is currently great. The unemployment rate is now 3.8%, below the level of 4% that business schools used to teach as the lowest possible unemployment. The latest Services PMI was down slightly, but still in expansion. Manufacturing PMI was higher month-over-month and year-over-year. The economy doesn’t seem to be in trouble. For the time being, I’m not worried.

Technically, a pullback after the run we have seen is perfectly normal. At the all-time highs just 3-weeks ago, 13% of issues on the NYSE made new all-time highs. This is a solid number that in the past has suggested that if there were to be a correction, it would be less than a 10% drop.

My guess is that we will not see that big a pullback. Further, today looks like a bottom; both Bollinger Bands and RSI are oversold. When that happens, we usually see a bottom. It would have been nice to see a lot more bottom indicators, but Mr. Market didn’t cooperate. I did notice that unchanged volume was very high, Wednesday. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The trend has been down so I would interpret this signal as predicting a turn up. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved to HOLD: PRICE, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral; VOLUME is bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
It looks like the pullback may be over or at least nearly over. Let’s see if other investors agree – I’ll watch the market action tomorrow. If there is a decent up-day, I’ll add to stock holdings.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Housing Starts ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT

FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA v. Case No. 1:21-cr-91-RCL-3

TAYLOR JAMES JOHNATAKIS, Defendant.

NOTES FOR SENTENCING
“Today, the Court sentenced Taylor James Johnatakis. The Court ordered that Mr. Johnatakis be committed to the custody of the Bureau of Prisons for a term of 87 months. The following are the notes that the Court used when delivering portions of its oral sentencing... what the jury found Mr. Johnatakis to have done on January 6 was neither First Amendment-protected activity nor civil disobedience. As the Court has said before, “the First Amendment does not give anyone the right to enter a restricted area or to engage in riotous activity in the Capitol.” See United States v. Little (Little Notes for Resentencing), No. 1:21-cr-315 (RCL), 2024 WL 386718 (D.D.C. Jan. 25, 2024). It obviously does not give anyone the right to assault the police. Nor was the January 6 riot an act of civil disobedience, because it was violent, not peaceful; opportunistic, not principled; coercive, not persuasive; and selfish, not patriotic.
The portrayal of Mr. Johnatakis as either a peaceful protestor or someone simply swept up by the crowd does not match the reality established at trial.” – Judge Royce Lamberth, excerpted from the Notes for Sentencing of Taylor James Johnatakis, January 6^th riot-leader. For some interesting reading, see the full Notes for Sentencing at...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/1923dd68-27cc-4b1f-90d2-0e6e0f183008.pdf

HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (Reuters)
“U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in March... The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed permits for future construction of single-family houses fell to a five-month low... Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units last month...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-single-family-housing-starts-plunge-march-2024-04-16/

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (FXstreet)
“Industrial Production in the US grew 0.4% on a monthly basis in March, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reported on Tuesday.” Story at...
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-industrial-production-rises-04-in-march-as-expected-202404161324

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.2% to 5051.
-VIX declined about 4% to 18.4.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.669%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.

XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
Salesforce was down over 7% Monday. News follows: “Salesforce (CRM) is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire data management software company Informatica (INFA), according to a Wall Street Journal report. The potential acquisition would allow Salesforce to boost its data integration and management capabilities by tapping into Informatica's product suite.” – Yahoo Finance.

DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index .)

TODAY’S COMMENT:
We didn’t learn much today. There wasn’t much change in price for the S&P 500; the Index remains about 1% below its 50-dMA. Indicators were little changed. Breadth indicators remain in relatively good condition for the most part, so no need to panic.

There are now 18 bear-signs and 6-Bull. There are some bottoming signs. Bollinger Bands remain oversold, but RSI remains in neutral territory.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there are 18 bear-signs and 6-Bull.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained SELL: PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral; VIX & VOLUME are bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish longer-term, but still cautiously Neutral for now. I took profit in some positions last week. I may trim more, but that will depend on the indicators – now little changed from last week. The S&P 500 did close below its 50-dMA today (the 2^nd consecutive close) and that’s a concern, but the Index is only 3.9% below its all-time, record close. While declines aren’t fun, they are part of investing and so far, this is pretty normal stuff.

My guess is that the markets will retreat a little farther until we see some bottom indications.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

Monday, April 15, 2024

Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“I absolutely hate everyone here that is doing this [trying to support Ukraine]. I mean, I seriously hate them for doing this to the American people and paying for the murder and slaughter of people in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has not said that he wants to go march across Europe and take Europe.” – Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA),

“Once again Moscow Marge is busy deploying her Kremlin talking points. Is she a useful idiot or is she intentionally spreading Putin's lies? Either way it's pathetic and unAmerican.” – Liz Cheney, former Republican Congresswoman.

THE GREEN ENERGY PRICE SHOCK (WSJ)
“Do White House officials pay electric bills? They strangely keep saying the President’s climate agenda is reducing electric-power rates even as the cost of running your dishwasher is sky-rocketing, as illuminated by the Labor Department’s consumer-price index... Electric rates remained relatively flat in the seven years before President Biden took office, rising 5%. Thank cheap natural gas. Yet since January 2021 electricity prices have soared 29.4%—about 50% more than overall inflation... Federal regulations, renewable subsidies and state green-energy mandates are forcing fossil-fuel and nuclear plants to retire prematurely... By driving more baseload power plants out of business, IRA [The Inflation Reduction Act ] subsidies will increase electric bills even more.... The Inflation Reduction Act may be the biggest legislative misnomer of all time.” WSJ Editorial at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-prices-biden-green-energy-labor-department-2b4ea2cb

SEASONAL POSITIVE TAILWIND (Heritage Capital)
“Regarding the Middle East, I have two schools of thoughts. First, Iran’s retaliation on Israel was symbolic and not the start of anything big. Why send slow moving drones that they knew would be intercepted. They needed to save face among their people. The second thought is that the attack was just a test run to see who would defend Israel, with what weapons and to what extent. The real attack would be forthcoming... the most bullish scenario has stocks bottoming this week. That is still not my base case, but it remains a possibility. It would be easier if we saw a seasonal bounce for 1-3 days with another move lower into month-end. That would set up nicely for a better and more long-lasting rally.” Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/seasonally-positive-tailwind-against-middle-east-escalation/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 fell about 1.2% to 5062.
-VIX rose about 11% to 19.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.610%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.

XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
Salesforce was down over 7% today. News follows: “Salesforce (CRM) is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire data management software company Informatica (INFA), according to a Wall Street Journal report. The potential acquisition would allow Salesforce to boost its data integration and management capabilities by tapping into Informatica's product suite.” – Yahoo Finance.

DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index .)

TODAY’S COMMENT:

Today’s chart was not pretty. I thought when the futures were up in the morning it was a sign that the weakness was over. That was not to be. It’s hard to say whether today was follow thru from last week, or simply a reaction to the news in the middle east. With Iran’s attack on Israel, weak market action today is not a surprise. Either way, we’ll look at indicators.

Today’s market internals were not good and the spread for the Summary of 50-Indicators remained bearish. There are now 18 bear-signs and 7-Bull. There are some bottoming signs.

Bollinger Bands are oversold and RSI is very close to an oversold signal. When they are both oversold it is usually a good buy signal – not there yet. The S&P 500 slipped about 1% below its 50-dMA. There is support around 5000 so perhaps the Index will find its bottom with another 1% drop.

Today was another statistically-significant, down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms often occur on statistically-significant, down-days, so today could be the end of the pullback. Unfortunately, all statistically-significant, down-days are not bottoms so we can’t be certain that weakness is over.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there are 18 bear-signs and 7-Bull.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator slipped to SELL: PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral; VIX & VOLUME are bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish longer-term, but still Neutral for now. I took profit in some positions last week. I may trim more, but that will depend on the indicators. If we see consecutive closes below the 50-dMA on the S&P 500, it will be a concern; but there are some positive signs showing up. Bollinger Bands are signaling buy and RSI is almost there.

The S&P 500 is 3.7% below its all-time high. My guess is that the markets will retreat a little farther until we see some bottom indications.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Friday, April 12, 2024

Michigan Sentiment ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"I, like an awful lot of people in this audience, was the first in my family to go to college and watched by dad struggle to help me get there." – President Joe Biden.
Fact check: It’s a Lie. “He acknowledged it was untrue more than 35 years ago when his 1987 presidential campaign unraveled in a plagiarism scandal that saw him lift remarks from a British politician.” – NY Post.

UNIV OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Sentiment moved sideways for the fourth straight month, as consumers perceived few meaningful developments in the economy. Since January, sentiment has remained remarkably steady within a very narrow 2.5 index point range, well under the 5 points necessary for a statistically significant difference in readings. Consumers perceived little change in the state of the economy since the start of the new year. Expectations over personal finances, business conditions, and labor markets have all been stable over the last four months. However, a slight uptick in inflation expectations in April reflects some frustration that the inflation slowdown may have stalled.” Press release at...
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 fell about 1.5% to 5123.
-VIX rose about 16% to 17.31.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.518%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.

XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index .)

TODAY’S COMMENT:
The spread for the Summary of 50-Indicators slipped more to the bear side. It would be nice if I had this data going back for years, then we might be able to say that when the 10-dMA reaches “x”, it’s time to sell. Unfortunately, I was unable to automate all the decision making for the various indicators. Some must be input manually. Thus, to back-test this chart would take an enormous effort going back thru the data and manually inputting daily numbers for some indicators - I can’t do it. We can look at the recent total of Bull and Bear signals for the sell decision. In the past when the number of Bull signals has been zero, it was a good time to sell. That was true during the Coronavirus bear-market and the 25% bear-market that ended recently when the S&P 500 made new highs. There are now 16 bear-signs and 5-Bull. So, this is not giving a clear sell signal. Other Indicators aren’t there either.

The Long-Term Indicator is not yet giving a sell signal. We also note that Bollinger Bands and RSI are approaching Buy-signals and the S&P 500 is close to its 50-dMA. The Index touched the 50-dMA (5111) in the afternoon and bounced higher. That’s about where the lower trend-line for the Index usually occurs. This all suggests that holding on may be the best course of action. It is also possible that this recent weakness ended today.

Today was a statistically-significant, down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms often occur on statistically-significant, down-days, so today could be the end of the pullback. Unfortunately, all statistically-significant, down-days are not bottoms so we can’t be certain that weakness is over.

This is the correct Friday chart.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there are 16 bear-signs and 5-Bull. Last Friday they were 16 bear-signs and 6-Bull so we haven’t seen much deterioration over the week.

Here are a few of the indicators:
BULL
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%
-Smart Money.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) vs the S&P 500.

NEUTRAL
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Bands.
-RSI.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been smaller than the size of down-moves over the last month, but not enough to send a message.
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-There have been 10 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There have been 4 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
-VIX indicator. (The Options players finally woke up. This indicator signaled sell at one point during the day, but recovered to a neutral indication.)

BEAR
-There have been 7 Distribution Days since 19 Jan Follow-thru day.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-My Money Trend indicator.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-MACD of S&P 500 price.

More than 90% of the volume today was down-volume. That can be a bearish sign, but not all of the tests for a Bearish, 90% Down-Volume-day were met (per Lowry Research methodology). Still, if we have another 90% down-volume day it would be a bad omen.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral; VOLUME is bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish longer-term, but Neutral for now. I took profit in some positions last week. I may trim more, but that will depend on the indicators. The S&P 500 is only 2.5% below its all-time high, so no reason to panic. My guess is that the markets may retreat a little farther until we see some bottom indications. But, as noted above, Friday could hae been the bottom.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

Thursday, April 11, 2024

PPI ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“She [Marjorie Taylor Green] was always focused on her social media account. And ‘Moscow Marjorie’ is focused now on this Ukraine issue and getting her talking points from the Kremlin and making sure she is popular and she is getting a lot of coverage.” – Ken Buck, former Republican Congressman.
My cmt: Green is now focused on stopping support for Ukraine.

“That the world demands explanations and apologies from Israel for civilian deaths reflects a tacit understanding that Israel is nothing like Russia and shares our concern about the deaths of civilians. The accusation of genocide against Israel is as absurd as demanding an explanation from Russia of civilian deaths. For the record, every civilian death in Gaza is a war crime by Hamas, which hides in tunnels under Gazan cities and uses the civilians as shields. The war would end tomorrow if Hamas surrendered and returned its hostages. That so many ignore this and accuse Israel of genocide leads me to despair over the morality of our planet.” - Ari Weitzner, WSJ Letter to the Editor.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-gaza-civilians-hamas-war-f7ef9c31?mod=letterstoeditor_more_article_pos16

BIDEN FOLLOWING CALIFORNIA (NY Post via msn.com)
“The Labor Department just imposed 300 pages of new regulations to reclassify many individual contractors as payroll employees.
CNBC claims this could help freelancers “recover lost wages.” That’s just nonsense. The new rules will make it harder for some freelancers to support a family.... Herstand [a musician] was dismayed to learn that when he wants other musicians to join him, he could no longer just write them a check. “I have to put that drummer on payroll, W-2 him, get workers’ comp insurance, unemployment insurance, payroll taxes!”... President Biden wants to go further by getting Congress to pass a union-backed bill called the PRO Act. It would reclassify workers the same way California did, but without any exemptions!” Story at...
Biden wants to follow foolish California and ban freelancing — putting millions out of work (msn.com)
“You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.” – Obi-Wan visits Washington, DC.

PPI (CNBC)
“The producer price index rose 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus... on a 12-month basis, the PPI climbed 2.1%, the biggest gain since April 2023... Excluding food and energy, the core PPI also rose 0.2%, meeting expectations.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/11/ppi-inflation-report-march-2024-wholesale-prices-rose-0point2percent-in-march.html

JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“Fewer Americans applied for jobless benefits last week...The Labor Department reported Thursday that filings for unemployment claims for the week ending April 6 fell by 11,000 to 211,000 from the previous week’s 222,000" Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/fewer-americans-file-jobless-claims-labor-market-continues-109131381

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 5199.
-VIX fell about 6% to 14.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.587%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.

XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index .)

TODAY’S COMMENT:
PPI was better than expected, but not by a lot. Futures were down before the open, but improved after the PPI news was released. Indicators remained to the bear side

Short-term breadth remained bearish. Longer-term breadth measures are still bullish so no need to panic yet.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there are 12 bear-signs and 9-Bull. Indicators improved some, but the 10-dMA of the indicators continued to fall. The Nifty 50 are still leaning bearish and the S&P 500 remains below its lower trendline so the Index is not in the clear yet.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE, SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish longer-term, but Neutral for now.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)