Navigate the Stock Market

Friday, February 6, 2026

Sentiment from Univ Michigan … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

JUDGE TOSSES MAGA SUIT (Alternet)
“One week after President Donald Trump sent FBI agents to seize Fulton County’s 2020 ballots as part of a criminal probe, a Georgia judge has apparently had it up to here with Trump-style election deniers. “The 2020 election is over,” said Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney, dismissing Trump-supporters’ lawsuit and effort to review ballots and materials they allege would prove Trump should have won Georgia. On top of tossing the suit, the judge ordered the four plaintiffs — consisting of a treasure hunter and members of a Georgia affiliate of the Tea Party Patriots — to pay nearly $40,000 to Fulton County and the county Superior Court clerk’s office for filing the frivolous suit.” Story at…
Judge throws out MAGA election lawsuit and imposes steep fine
My cmt: Trump continues his “stolen election” lies. Some of my thoughts are here…
TRUMP STILL CLAIMS MAIL-IN VOTING COST HIM THE 2020 ELECTION
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2025/09/jobless-claims-ism-services-adp.html

Then there’s 2000 Mules movie.
APOLOGY FOR ‘2000 MULES (WSJ)
“The movie “2000 Mules” was supposed to be the definitive proof that Democrats stole the 2020 election from President Trump. Last week [June 2024] it was quietly retracted. Salem Media Group, which co-produced this Trumpian fantasy mockumentary, ceased distribution of the film and issued an apology to Mark Andrews, one of the Georgia voters depicted as an illegal ballot “mule.”... Salem aims to shift blame to the film’s purported vote-fraud-fighting heroes. “We relied on representations made to us by Dinesh D’Souza and True the Vote, Inc. (‘TTV’) that the individuals depicted in the videos provided to us by TTV, including Mr. Andrews, illegally deposited ballots,” the company said. “We have learned that the Georgia Bureau of Investigation has cleared Mr. Andrews of illegal voting activity in connection with the event depicted.” – WSJ Editorial staff at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/2000-mules-salem-media-lawsuit-mark-andrews-dinesh-dsouza-2020-election-true-the-vote-1565ace0
My cmt: The movie is a complete fake. Here are a couple of my previous comments on the subject...

“A conservative group has told a Georgia judge that it doesn't have evidence to support its claims of illegal ballot stuffing during the 2020 general election and a runoff two months later. Texas-based True the Vote filed complaints with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in 2021, including one in which it said it had obtained “a detailed account of coordinated efforts to collect and deposit ballots in drop boxes across metro Atlanta” during the November 2020 election and a January 2021 runoff.” Story at...
Conservative group tells judge it has no evidence to back its claims of Georgia ballot stuffing (msn.com)
My cmt: The movie, “2000 Mules” is a complete fake. The GBI (Georgia Bureau of Investigation) stated that the claims of ballot stuffing by True the Vote and the 2000 Mules movie were not supported by the evidence provided in the movie. The crazy thing is that during the 2020 election, Georgia matched absentee ballot signatures to registrations and signatures on file. Even if there had been ballot stuffing, the fake ballots would have been thrown out due to lack of registration and/or non-matching signatures.

“About one-third of U.S. adults say they believe President Biden was not legitimately elected president of the United States in 2020, according a poll released this week [Jan 2024].” - The Hill at...
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4384619-one-third-of-americans-say-biden-election-illegitimate/
My cmt: 20% of Americans are complete idiots for believing there is a Government/Taylor Swift conspiracy to elect Joe Biden. Now 30% believe the Trump stolen election absurdity. Let’s hope the 20% crazies fall within the 30% nut-jobs otherwise we’d have to add them together. 50% of Americans can’t be idiots, can they?

"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January 2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings. On net, modest increases in current personal finances and buying conditions for durables were offset by a small decline in long-run business conditions. While sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly increases have been small—well under the margin of error—and the overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical perspective.” Report at…
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 2% to 6932.
-VIX fell about 18% to 17.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.206% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -7 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

The S&P 500 bounced above its 50-dMA and the lower trend line of the bearish wedge - good news. No trend-change yet.

The Hindenburg Omen was canceled today because the McClellan Oscillator turned positive.

The S&P 500 closed at its 100-dMA yesterday. As noted yesterday, recent declines have stopped at the 100-dMA – boy, did it ever.

Breadth improved.

Friday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.

Looks like the weakness ended as dip-buyers stampeded into the market. Let’s see what the indicators show next week.

I added to my Nvidia position today. The high capital expenditures by tech companies suggests to ne that the AI trade is far from over. Nvidia looks like a value trade to me so I am ignoring the weak momentum it is currently exhibiting.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, February 5, 2026

Jobless Claims … Challenger Layoffs … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“Initial claims for ‌state unemployment benefits jumped 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended January 31, the ‌Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 212,000 claims for the latest week. Heavy snow and freezing temperatures blanketed large portions of the country towards the end of January, which could have left some people unemployed temporarily.” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-133618429.html

CHALLENGER LAYOFFS (Challenger, Gray & Christmas)
“U.S.-based employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, an increase of 118% from the 49,795 cuts announced in the same month last year. It is up 205% from the 35,553 job cuts announced in December, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.” Report at…
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-january-job-cuts-surge-lowest-january-hiring-on-record/

-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1.2% to 6798.
-VIX rose about 17% to 21.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.188% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025. Nvidia’s momentum is negative. That’s usually a sell-signal, even for a stock I bought as a value play. We’ll see.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +5 to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. (Yesterday’s numbers changed based on data that comes in late.) I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

The S&P 500 dropped below its 50-dMA. In addition, there was a breakdown in the bearish wedge. Neither were good news. Now we need to see if the Index will close below its 50-dMA on consecutive days. That would suggest a trend change.

Thursday there was another Hindenburg Omen.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. So far, we’ve seen two. The short-term Fosback High-Low Logic Index uses a similar method of analysis. It is also now issuing a sell.

Breadth is falling and again is issuing a warning signal - over the last 2 weeks, more issues on the NYSE have gone down than have gone up.

Not all of the news is bad:
-Bollinger Bands are now oversold giving a buy-signal. RSI is not confirming the Bollinger Band, buy-signal, but it is not far from a buy.
-Thursday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Let’s hope that’s true tomorrow. I am tired of falling prices.
-Recent declines have stopped at the 100-dMA. The S&P 500 closed at its 100-dMA. Will it stop the decline this time? If not, I’ll be selling some stocks.

Futures are down as I write tonight’s note so it’s a good time to check the status of the decline. The S&P 500 is 2.3% below its all-time high. Based on breadth at the all-time high, a decline greater than 10% is less likely, but not impossible.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral to bearish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

ADP Employment … ISM Non-Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP via PR newswire)
"’Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. ‘While we've seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job creation for the past three years, wage growth has remained stable.’… Private employers added 22,000 jobs in January. In a lackluster month for hiring, the education and health services sector was a standout, adding 74,000 jobs. Leading the slowdown was manufacturing, which has lost jobs every month since March 2024, professional and business services, and large employers.” Press report at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-22-000-jobs-in-january-annual-pay-was-up-4-5-302678953.html

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“The Services PMI^® registered 53.8 percent to start 2026 as it finished 2025, on a positive note, with its 19th month in a row in expansion territory after ISM’s most recent seasonal adjustments.” Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/january/

-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 6883.
-VIX rose about 4% to 18.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.278% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025. Nvidia’s momentum is negative. That’s usually a sell-signal, even for a stock I bought as a value play. We’ll see.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +7 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign. (It reversed upward yesterday – now it’s down.)

Once again, the S&P 500 dropped below its 50-dMA; it recovered to finish 0.1% above the 50-day. The 50-dMA is also the lower trend line in the bearish ascending wedge. Those levels of support are holding so far. If they fail, we’ll have a signal suggesting further downside. As long as the 50-day holds, I’ll be cautiously optimistic … up to a point. We need to see the Index break the upper trend line of the bearish wedge - soon.

Since the McClellan Oscillator turned positive today, the Hindenburg Omen signal is cancelled. The Bearish Outside Reversal signal remains in place until the S&P 500 closes above the high on the Reversal Day.

Wednesday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Let’s hope that’s true tomorrow. I am tired of falling prices.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish and fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT

The S&P 500 dropped below its 50-dMA around 2 pm today and bounced up from there. The 50-dMA is also the lower trend line in the bearish ascending wedge. The trend line held and that’s a good sign. While the day was weak, the finish was strong, suggesting we may expect a bullish follow-thru Wednesday.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +8 to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BULLISH sign.

Today, Tuesday, was a Bearish Outside Reversal day.
The Bearish Outside Reversal signal remains in place until the S&P 500 closes above the high on the Reversal Day.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The lower trend line held again today. We need to see the Index break above the upper lines soon. If not I’ll reduce stock holdings again. If it breaks the lower trend line, that would also be a signal to cut back.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish and fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, February 2, 2026

ISM Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

When back-tested to January 1871, this valuation tool, which is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings over the trailing decade, has averaged 17.33. As of the closing bell on Jan. 28, the CAPE Ratio clocked in above 41. This is the second-priciest stock market in history…Although it's impossible to predict how long valuations will remain extended, the Shiller P/E has an exceptional track record of foreshadowing significant declines. The CAPE Ratio has only exceeded 30 on six occasions in 155 years, with the previous five instances followed by drops in the Dow, S&P 500, and/or Nasdaq ranging from 20% to 89%.” Story at…
Is a 3rd historic stock market crash imminent under President Donald Trump? Here's what the data says.

ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in 12 months, preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM^® Manufacturing PMI^® Report…"The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 52.6 percent in January, a 4.7-percentage point increase compared to the seasonally adjusted reading of 47.9 percent in December.” Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-52-6-january-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302675443.html

-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6976.
-VIX declined about 6% to 16.36.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.281% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +1 to +8 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Breadth had been falling, but it improved today and over the last 2 weeks, more issues on the NYSE have gone up than have gone down.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test. If it doesn’t happen before the S&P 500 reaches the termination of the wedge where the upper and lower trend lines meet a breakdown is likely.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish and fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, January 30, 2026

PPI … Chicago PMI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

THANK HEAVEN FOR COAL POWER (WSJ – Excerpt)
“The weekend’s arctic blast [last weekend] has put much of the U.S. grid through a stress test and served as another alert about the growing risks to electric-power reliability. Americans can be grateful the Biden crowd didn’t succeed in forcing all coal plants to shut down…Early Sunday morning, coal accounted for some 40% of power in the Midwest’s MISO grid, 24% in the eastern U.S. PJM Interconnection and 18% in Texas, with most of the rest coming from natural gas and nuclear.
New York’s blockade on gas pipelines has constrained the fuel supply for power plants across New England. Power plants in the region had to resort to burning oil, which accounted for 40% of electricity at times of peak demand. Get this—the region generated more power from burning wood and trash than from wind power…The deep-freeze energy scare underscores why the Energy Department issued emergency orders in recent months to “stop the political closure of coal plants” in the Midwest. The grid needs all the coal power it can get when temperatures plunge or skyrocket. Environmental groups have challenged the department’s orders. Is the goal to reduce carbon emissions by making Americans freeze?” – Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/thank-heaven-for-coal-power-in-the-cold-dc3b9a33?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqebrQ2_HVHNcQqVweZyLA8spRlqpk3UnViEp-yHCw25Plf1QMj5axw5r59ELnE%3D&gaa_ts=697c18bf&gaa_sig=b3M0bUS78uyOI_Ied-DACWqF2DbBynUUmjTXIyDz-66W-NkEwqEGSNXY_P2SkKCQIg7kDFU3_xsrYNg4V_fW3Q%3D%3D

AMERICA DOESN’T DO FASCISM (WSJ)
“…This week the Atlantic published an essay headlined “Yes, It’s Fascism,” in which Brookings Institution scholar Jonathan Rauch draws up a series of categories— “demolition of norms,” “might is right,” “police-state tactics,” “blood-and-soil nationalism”— that in his view describe both Mr. Trump and “classical” fascism of the 1930s…
…I assume Mr. Walz knows the difference between the Gestapo and federal ICE agents, and between detention centers for illegal immigrants and Bergen-Belsen… But some not insubstantial number of these politicians’ listeners take their assertions both seriously and literally. That so many people in Minneapolis have endangered themselves by waving phones in the faces of armed federal officers and shouting obscenities as if they were psychotic is one of many unhappy consequences. American public figures have a duty to think better of their country than to believe it capable of putting a fascist in the White House. Some of them might ponder the possibility that he wouldn’t be there at all were it not for excesses they cheered at the time.” - Barton Swaim., Opinion Columnist, Unruly Republic, The Wall Street Journal. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/barton-swaim
My comment: Looking at it rationally produces another conclusion. During the campaign preceding the 2020 election, Trump said he would close the borders and evict all illegal immigrants. He was subsequently elected and is doing exactly what he said he would do. That is Democracy – not Fascism.

Further, if those who were being arrested went peaceably, and protestors were respectful, there would be no claims of fascism.

PPI (Reuters)
“The PPI for final demand jumped 0.5% last month, the biggest rise since ‌July, after an unrevised 0.2% gain in November… In the 12 months through December, the PPI increased 3.0%...” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-producer-prices-accelerate-december-services-2026-01-30/

CHICAGO PMI (Investing.com)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector in the Chicago region, has reported a significant expansion. The actual reading for the index stood at 54.0, indicating a robust growth in the sector.” Story at…
https://ca.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/chicago-pmi-signals-manufacturing-sector-expansion-surpasses-expectations-93CH-4429573

-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 6939.
-VIX rose about 3% to 17.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.241% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +9 to +1 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Friday there was a Hindenburg Omen
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. So far, we’ve seen only one. Further, the Fosback High-Low Logic Index uses a similar method of analysis. It is closer to a Buy-signal than a sell.

Breadth is falling. That’s a concern. The first warning signal flashed today - over the last 2 weeks, more issues on the NYSE have gone down than have gone up.

The S&P 500 is likely to make another visit to the lower trendline. The 50-dMA is about 1% below today’s close at 6858. That is a likely stop for this weakness.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test. Now the worry is the lower trendline – will it hold? I think so, but we’ll find out soon.

Breadth was good at the recent all-time-high. As a result, I don’t expect markets to retreat too far. If economic issues continue to decline, this opinion will have to change.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish and fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)