Navigate the Stock Market

Tuesday, November 10, 2026

SOLD SOME STOCKS

I cut stock holdings by trimming my XLK position. Nothing drastic - I am now 50% invested in stocks. That is still a fully invested position. This is caution rather than any specific signal.

Monday, November 9, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

MAGA COALITION DISINTEGRATES (WSJ – Excerpt, Saturday, 7 Nov)
“The Democrats are projected to win the 2026 national House vote by 13 points. One estimate has them winning 258 seats, their largest majority since 2008.
At this writing, Democrats have picked up seven Senate seats. They may pick up additional seats in Alaska and—this isn’t a misprint—Mississippi. Democrats flipped at least five governorships, in Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas. At least 12 state legislative chambers flipped from red to blue…
… Democrats outspent Republicans overall for the second straight election, according to OpenSecrets.org. Two of the Democrats’ favorite bogeymen—the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision and Elon Musk—couldn’t stop the party’s advance…
… Voters said Mr. Trump has the wrong priorities, puts his personal interest above the public interest, and made economic conditions worse. Economic growth and full employment mattered less than inflation and the corresponding decline in real wages…
… Mr. Trump began the finger-pointing on election night when he told the Journal that some Republican candidates “could have been better” and “had a lot of flaws.” He neglected to mention that his hand-selected candidates in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas went down in double-digit defeats. Nor did he name another of his picks, Darline Graham of South Carolina, who lost by 4 points…
… The socialist “Squad” of congressmen aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America is set to double in size. The much larger House Progressive Caucus—currently some 100 members—will grow even more. The line between socialism and progressivism is blurry: Rep. Ilhan Omar is a founding member of the Squad and deputy chairman of the Progressive Caucus.
… Thus conservatives who believe in the Constitution, limited government, the rule of law and the Declaration of Independence’s principles of liberty and equality confront a dire prospect: Nov. 3 may foreshadow a period of progressive governance in both parties that would leave Americans poorer, weaker and less free. It may turn out that the most prescient words of this election were uttered last month in New York City when Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told donors, “Because if you can win, if Abdul can win in Michigan, anybody can win anywhere. Anywhere.”
We are about to find out if she’s right.” - Mathew Continetti for WSJ Opinion’s Free Expression. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-maga-coalition-disintegrates-4179a2be

WSJ LETTERS (WSJ)
“Jason L. Riley’s column “The Beginning of Trump’s Long Goodbye” (Upward Mobility, Nov. 4) overlooks a critical factor in the Republican defeat: the party’s failure to communicate a positive, persuasive message.
Having worked in advertising and marketing, I watched the Republican campaign with disbelief. Successful marketing demonstrates benefits, establishes credibility and gives audiences reasons to believe. Instead, Republican messaging relied heavily on hostility, accusations and personal attacks.
In a May interview with Politico, Republican strategist James Blair laid out the game plan: “Attack, attack, attack. And when in doubt, attack some more… The best defense is a great offense.” I would have rejected that strategy outright.
Where were the messages demonstrating how Republican policies improved Americans’ everyday lives? Where were the accomplishments voters could recognize and appreciate? Political persuasion is earned through credibility and demonstrated value, not resentment.
Republicans had extraordinary financial resources. What they lacked was a compelling, positive message. - Lyn Stanley. WSJ Letters at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-factors-behind-the-great-republican-rout-3d15819c?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos7
My cmt: I couldn’t agree more. As the chart below shows, most of the current high prices are from the Biden administration. At the current 3.7% (including food and energy) prices double every 19.5-years. At the 9% inflation peak under Biden, prices double every 8-years.

The Republicans sat back and let the Democrats pummel them with claims of a bad economy and unaffordability, but the unemployment rate is near historic lows; GDP showed a solid 3.5% increase in the third quarter; and unaffordability was, in large part, a holdover from the Biden Administration. This was campaign incompetence and stupidity by Republicans. Of course, Trump is so unpopular, it is likely that no amount of marketing could have saved them.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 2.4% to 7550.
-VIX declined about 22% to 19.92.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.884% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -10 to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, moved higher, a BULLISH sign.

Where is the S&P 500?
          - 3.4% below its all-time high
          - 1.6% below its 50-dMA
          - 0.9% below its 100-dMA
          - 3% above its 200-dMA

The 100-dMA is the next resistance point. Now, it’s resistance against gains and not support against declines. Getting above the 100-dMA would be a good sign. If the S&P 500 could move decisively above its 50-dMA, that would give us the confidence to feel optimistic on the markets.

The market trend is clearly down as the S&P 500 curve shows in the above “Summary of 50-Indicator Spread” chart; however, indicators are trending higher. The issue is that good moves in the indicators have not translated into a sustained move higher by the Index, at least recently. I am a little cautious on this market. Breadth has improved, but not to the point that I would consider normal for a bullish condition.

I have not made any changes to the portfolio recently.

BOTTOM LINE
I’ll upgrade to a NEUTRAL, but cautious position on the market. I am still fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, November 6, 2026

Payrolls … Unemployment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
Where is the S&P 500?
          - 5.7% below its all-time high
          - 3.9% below its 50-dMA
          - 3.2% below its 100-dMA
          - 0.7% above its 200-dMA

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -10 (10 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, was flat, a NEUTRAL sign. (The 10-day has been bouncing back and forth so it’s hard to place too much faith in it.)

I didn’t make any changes to the portfolio; the day was very busy. I may reduce some stocks Monday.

BOTTOM LINE
Same as Thursday: I’m Bearish and inclined to ere on the side of caution and cut some stock holdings. I’ll try and post Monday if I make changes to the portfolio. It is likely to be late in the day.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, November 5, 2026

Jobless Claims … Productivity … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT

Today was down all day.

Where is the S&P 500?
          - 5.9% below its all-time high
          - 4.3% below its 50-dMA
          - 3.5% below its 100-dMA
          - 0.4% above its 200-dMA

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +4 to -10 (10 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, reversed lower, a BEARISH sign. (The 10-day has been bouncing back and forth so it’s hard to place too much faith in it.)

Is this the end of the Bull market? It could be, but it doesn’t fit the classic stock market wisdom:
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." — Sir John Templeton

We haven’t been in euphoria at all this year. Another cause for an end of a bull market is recession, but there is currently no sign of recession. That’s not a great sign though. Similar statements were made in 2007 when the recession had already begun. Recessions are officially determined by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) so start dates are usually determined after-the-fact.

Statements by Democrats have been generally opposed to AI. Partly due to their opposition, the AI trade is getting crushed. The iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (BAI) was down 11% Thursday. Nvidia is down almost 25% in just a month. Overall, my indicators aren’t that bad, but there are some reliable signs that are scary.

The 10-dEMA Hi/Lo Logic Index was bearish Thursday. In addition, the Short-Term (5-day) Hi/Lo Logic Index was “very bearish” according to Fosback’s original description of the 5-day indicator. The 10-day version of this indicator called the Covid-19 Bear Market high to the day.

Breadth has weakened again.

My Panic Indicator flashed. This one is hard to interpret, because it can be either a buy-signal or a sell-signal. It’s a buy signal at a bottom and a sell signal at a top. Where are we this time? Well, the market was close to a top, but markets have been in a sideways correction since early August so one can make an argument markets are near a bottom. I’ll put this indicator in the bear camp – the S&P 500 was only 1.5% below its all-time high yesterday (Wednesday).

There were a few signs of a bottom.
The 7-Day VIX ROC (rate of change) was 61%: According to Tom McClellan "...any reading above around +20% is a pretty good sign of an oversold bottom for stock prices, one that is worthy of a bounce...” This one is not in my 50-indicator ensemble, because I have never back-tested it to check its accuracy.

Bollinger Bands are overbought, but RSI is not confirming a bottom and I use these indicators together.

As I’ve written before, in my experience, when leaders fail, markets fail.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Bearish and inclined to ere on the side of caution and cut some stock holdings. I’ll try and post tomorrow if I make changes to the portfolio. It is likely to be late in the day.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, November 4, 2026

ISM Non-Manufacturing … ADP Employment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
Where is the S&P 500?
          - 1.5% below its all-time high
          - 0.1% above its 50-dMA
          - 1% above its 100-dMA
          - 5.2% above its 200-dMA

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -6 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, is reversed higher, a BULLISH sign. (The 10-day had been bouncing back and forth so it’s hard to place to much faith in it.)

A guest commentator on CNBC (sorry I didn’t catch his name) suggested that based on prior election cycles, this relief rally may be short lived. We now have to worry about: what the Democrats will do; what will be Trump’s reaction; the Fed is in a hiking cycle with hikes expected in December and probably a few more issues.

I asked Google AI: “What happened to the stock market after the 2018 mid-term election?”
The answer:
- “The 2018 midterms resulted in a split Congress, with Democrats winning control of the House of Representatives and Republicans maintaining the Senate…
- On November 7, 2018, the day after the election, the S&P 500 surged 2.1% as investors reacted positively to the removal of political uncertainty and historical precedents favoring gridlock…
- The optimism was short-lived as macroeconomic pressures, particularly concerns about economic growth and monetary policy tightening, took over…
- From the end of October through December 24, 2018, the S&P 500 slid roughly 13%, culminating in a sharp Christmas Eve sell-off that marked the bottom of the correction...”
So, this rally has historical precedent and it’s not particularly good even though markets liked the election.

Markets like divided Government. Look what happened when Obama had power with the Democrats in charge of Congress – they passed a new expensive under-funded, un-popular healthcare system known as “Obamacare.” The Democrats were swept out of power in the mid-terms.

What happened with Trump when the Republicans controlled congress? Tariffs; expensive, budget busting tax-cuts; killing civilians on the high seas in the name of drug enforcement; overblown immigration enforcement and more. The Republicans were swept out of power in the mid-terms.

Where do we stand? Indicators are improving, but that hasn’t had a very good correlation with the S&P 500 recently. Since mid-September, Indicators have been improving, but the S&P 500 has been nearly flat to slightly higher. I am inclined to sit on current holdings until I see the Index take out the all-time high.

Nvidia was down more than 3% today; Micron was down 7%; Caterpillar was down 5% - the AI trade is still under pressure and that is a worry for the entire market. I have never been a fan of the “rotation” argument for stocks (i.e., rotating out of tech into other sectors). My experience is that when leaders fail, markets fail.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral with a wait and see attitude.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Factory Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

ELECTION DAY
TG! Now we won’t have to listen to the incessant liars on TV every 10 minutes claiming their political opponent is a crook. It’s on to Medicare open season. Jeez… We’ll be bombarded by a new set of liars.

JUDGE REJECTS CLAIM AGAINST EX-FBI STAFF(WSJ)
“A federal judge threw out charges against two former FBI officials accused of lying to Congress about their involvement in the Hunter Biden investigation, excoriating the Justice Department’s case as a “slapdash job” that created political theater ahead of the midterm election.
“I am deeply troubled,” said U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui in Washington. “What has transpired here cannot be described as anything other than weaponization.”
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/judge-rejects-charges-that-ex-fbi-officials-lied-about-hunter-biden-probe-dcb5d510
My cmt: The judge was also troubled by the timing of the streamlined complaint immediately before the election.

VOTERS WANT CHANGE NOT EXTREMES (WSJ – Excerpt)
“Elections are the closest thing to a civic sacrament in a secular, democratic state. They represent the solemn occasion when the essential idea of democracy gets practical expression: the demos, the people, taking literal charge of the kratos, the government… We have done our best in recent years to erode the sacral aspect of this ceremony. In keeping with the solipsistic nature of modern social life and the primacy of personal convenience, we no longer come together to vote on the same day… We can survive the degradation of the symbolic national unity of voting. I’m doubtful we can survive the systematic undermining of the practical political unity elections are supposed to induce…
…If the Democrats do win on Tuesday, I fear that, like a people in the grip of insanity, we are on course to keep doing the same thing and expecting different results… Meanwhile, even if the blue wave is meaningful, the country won’t be that different. Voters will be dissatisfied with high prices and uneasy with the excesses of the president; they won’t be voting to reinvent America’s capitalist system or to overhaul the Constitution.
In a sane world, wise politicians would interpret the results for what they are. Republicans would listen and rethink their party’s trajectory. Democrats would listen and stick narrowly to counterbalancing the administration and holding it accountable.” – Gerard Baker, Editor at Large, WSJ. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/voters-want-change-not-more-lurching-between-extremes-86eac5ab

“The person who has had the biggest impact on my life was Harford Steele…Mr. Steele was my high school civics teacher. He showed me what it takes to be a good American.” – John Glenn, Hero, Astronaut, US Senator.

“I taught Johnny [John Glenn] and hundreds of others that our democracy is a priceless heritage, and that we should preserve, protect and if at all possible, make some contributions to it.” – Hartford Steele, principal and civics teacher, New Concord, Ohio.

FACTORY ORDERS (Reuters)
"New orders for US factory goods increased more than expected in September, boosted by bookings for aircraft and a range of other goods… Factory ‌orders rose 1.8%...” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-factory-orders-beat-expectations-september-amid-broad-strength-2026-11-03/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7569.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 20.83.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.906% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from zero to -6 (6 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, is reversed lower, a BEARISH sign.

I was hoping for confirmation of a low Monday, but we didn’t get much of a signal. A big move higher, say around 1%, would have been a good confirmation. Instead, we did see a move higher, but not one that would suggest that sellers had turned into buyers. Internals were weak today, too; declining-issues outpaced advancing-issues; new-lows far outpaced new-highs; declining-volume was stronger than advancing-volume.

Where is the S&P 500?
          - 3.2% below its all-time high
          - 1.6% below its 50-dMA
          - 0.7% below its 100-dMA
          - 3.5% above its 200-dMA

As I write this tonight futures are collapsing. It looks like markets are not happy with election projections that Dems will take the House and Senate. We’ll see.

Lets’ see what indicators show Wednesday. We could get some buy-signals on a big washout. As of today, indicators aren’t all that bad.

BOTTOM LINE
No confirmation; no bottom. I’m back to Bearish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, November 2, 2026

ISM Manufacturing … Construction Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Looming large.” - Michael Ramirez, Las Vegas Review-Journal. From…
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/cartoon-growing-threat-3906814/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=topnews&utm_source=opinion_michael-ramirez&utm_term=CARTOON%3A%20Growing%20threat

FEDERAL DEBT 100% OF GDP (WSJ)
“The U.S. national debt reached 100% of gross domestic product for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, hitting the triple-digit mark for the first time since 1946…
… The outlook is rough. Social Security is projected to reach insolvency in 2032, triggering automatic benefit cuts unless Congress acts. Net interest costs, the most immovable object in the budget, are projected to climb by more than 1% of GDP over the next decade, according to CBO.
And that forecast from earlier this year assumed interest rates well below today’s prevailing rates. If all interest rates are 0.1 percentage point above CBO’s forecasts, that adds $379 billion in interest costs over a decade.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/federal-debt-hits-100-of-gdp-585d3cb0

WHERE ARE THE FISCAL HAWKS (WSJ-Excerpt)
“France could be a sign of what awaits. Its debts and deficits are in the same league as the U.S., although its economy is weaker. Attempts to curb spending have brought down four prime ministers in three years. As investors lost hope of any fix, they began dumping French bonds, sending yields soaring and slowing an already weak economy. So what happened to Washington’s fiscal hawks—the political leaders concerned about debt and prepared to curb red ink? They hit a wall of indifference and retired, lost elections, changed the subject or became doves…
… With fiscal hawks largely gone from the halls of power, it’s not clear who or what will bring them back.
“Voters say they care about the deficit, but very, very few will accept higher taxes or spending cuts to get there,” said Jessica Riedl, a longtime Republican budget aide who is now an analyst at the Brookings Institution…
…Perhaps if another G-7 country experiences enough pain, U.S. leaders will move, said Michael Faulkender, a University of Maryland finance professor who was a senior Treasury Department official during both Trump administrations.
“Is it going to be Great Britain or is it going to be France that fails first? And is that finally going to be the wake-up call?” he said. “I hope we can learn from somebody else going through that scenario as opposed to us having to live it.” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/fiscal-hawks-national-debt-midterms-gdp-8b7a950d

ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM via PRNewswire)
"The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 55.5 percent in October, 1 percentage point above the September figure of 54.5 percent. The overall economy expanded for the 24th month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI^® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-55-5-october-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302925617.html

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Reuters)
“US construction spending tumbled in September, nearly reversing the prior month's upwardly revised jump, likely because high materials costs depressed outlays on residential renovation ‌projects.
The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday that construction spending fell 1.9% after an upwardly revised 2.0% increase in August.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-construction-spending-tumbles-september-2026-11-02/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7541.
-VIX rose about 9% to 21.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.912% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -6 to zero (Equal Bull indicators and Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.

I was tempted to cut some stock holdings today, but the CNBC noon crowd talked me out of it. They said that the election is a clearing point and that stocks have been up after the mid-terms 20 out of 21 times or something like that.

Where is the S&P 500?
          - 3.5% below its all-time high
          - 2% below its 50-dMA
          - 1% below its 100-dMA
          - 3.1% above its 200-dMA

As I check today’s data, we note some interesting news. At today’s (Monday’s) new-low, volumes were lower than the prior-low on Friday. This suggests a decline in selling pressure. In addition, underlying market internals improved and that suggests the bottom is in, or close. Looks like it may be time to buy, not sell.

In addition, we note that Bollinger Bands are oversold/bullish. RSI is very close to oversold. I use Bollinger Bands and RSI together so these indicators are also suggesting a bottom. Reversals in new-high/new-low data suggest a bottom too.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Bullish, but sometimes these signals are early, or less often, wrong. I’ll watch to see how markets act. I’d like the markets (other investors) to confirm my buy-signal. If buying is strong late in the day, I’ll add to stock holdings.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)