Navigate the Stock Market

Monday, May 11, 2026

Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“Chief Justice Roberts a couple of years ago famously said: ‘We don’t have Obama judges, and Biden judges, and Trump judges. We just have judges.’ So I would reject the label of a conservative justice, but I would say that I’m an originalist justice… I view myself as bound to apply the text of the Constitution—as I was saying, you know, I’m bound to apply the text of statutes—and to leave more things to the democratic process, that unless the Constitution speaks to it, then I think change should come through the ratification process. Change should come from the people.” - Amy Coney Barrett, Justice Supreme Court.

“If Abigail Spanberger and Virginia Democrats had paid attention my October 2025 AG’s Opinion that made clear this scheme was unconstitutional and illegal, they could have saved more than $70 million, countless headaches, and months of obnoxious television ads defending the indefensible. Instead, they ignored the law, wasted taxpayer money on running a special election, and dragged Virginians through a completely avoidable mess,” - General Jason Miyares, former Virginia Attorney General commenting on the failed Virginia Gerrymandering that was rejected by the Virginia Supreme Court.

UNEQUAL BATTLE BETWEEN NEW YORK MAYOR ZOHRAN MAMDANI AND CITADEL CEO KEN GIRFFIN (WSJ-excerpt)
“In a video, the mayor complained that “rich” owners of second homes in his city don’t pay their fair share, pointing to “this penthouse, which hedge-fund CEO Ken Griffin bought for $238 million.”
Citadel in 2022 moved its headquarters from Chicago to Miami, but it still maintains a large New York presence—which made it a daft target to pick. The hedge fund’s team members have paid nearly $2.3 billion in city and state taxes in the past five years, while Citadel is deciding whether to redevelop a Park Avenue office that would create 15,000 permanent Midtown Manhattan jobs…
…“When we moved from Chicago, there was a debate between New York and Miami. It’s unquestionably true that we made the right choice,” he said. “And now what the mayor of New York has made clear to my partners, and principally my New York partners… is that we need to double down on our bet in Miami. Because we want to be in a state that embraces business, that embraces education, that embraces personal freedom and liberty, and that embraces people having an opportunity to live the American dream. And a dream of earned success, not a dream of redistributive handouts that leave people dependent on government for their lives and their livelihoods in a way that takes away dignity and honor.” - Kimberley A. Strassel, member of the editorial board for The Wall Street Journal. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-red-blue-economic-divide-7868847d

ARE WE RELIVING THE LAST MONTH OF 1999 (CNBC)
“Stocks are not up or down because of jobs or consumer sentiment,” Burry [Michael Burry of “Big Short fame] wrote. “They are going straight up because they have been going straight up. On a two letter thesis that everyone thinks they understand... Feeling like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble.”
Burry compared the recent trajectory of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) with the run-up that preceded the collapse of technology stocks in March 2000.” – Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/08/michael-burry-says-the-market-today-feels-like-the-last-months-of-the-1999-2000-bubble.html

EXISTING HOME SALES (RTTnews)
“After reporting a sharp pullback by U.S. existing home sales in the previous month, the National Association of Realtors released a report on Monday showing existing home sales rebounded by much less than expected in the month of April. NAR said existing home sales crept up by 0.2 percent to an annual rate of 4.02 million in April after plunging by 2.9 percent to a revised rate of 4.01 million in March.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3650185/u-s-existing-home-sales-rebound-much-less-than-expected-in-april.aspx

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7413.
-VIX rose about 7% to 18.38.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.412% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
SSO – Added 5/7/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 made a new, all-time, high today (Monday). 140 issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week-highs today; that is below the 5-year average for this stat, but high enough to avoid trouble. Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, is ok too; we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon. Concerns remain though.

As noted yesterday, the S&P 500 has gotten too far ahead of breadth-measures. Bollinger Bands are very close to overbought and RSI is elevated too. These signals will swing my top indicators to a short-term, top-warning if the S&P 500 rises by about 1% Tuesday. That would signal that a 3-5% decline is likely. I will sell leveraged positions when I get a top-warning.

I’ll wait for indicators to improve before I add more stock positions. If we do get a 3-5% decline, it will be time to buy-the-dip.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, May 8, 2026

Employment … Michigan Sentiment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

DEMOCRATS WANT TO REFORM SUPREME COURT
“Democrats are calling for reforms to the Supreme Court again after a pivotal decision from the high court weakened the Voting Rights Act…” Video at…
Democrats renew calls to reform Supreme Court as trust in high court plummets in new poll | Watch
VICTORY FOR VOTING RIGHTS (WSJ)
“To hear the critics tell it, the Supreme Court on Wednesday gutted the 1965 Voting Rights Act and made it harder for racial minorities to vote. It did no such thing. A 6-3 majority in Louisiana v. Callais took a large step toward ending the partisan abuse of race to carve up Congressional districts in a way that violates the Constitution…” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/lousiana-v-callais-supreme-court-voting-rights-act-samuel-alito-4f060bdb?mod=article_inline
“For decades we disagreed with [Supreme] Court rulings when progressives held sway, but we never called the Court illegitimate. But now that the left has lost the Court as a backup legislature for its policy goals, the institution is supposedly broken. Tell us again who is the threat to democratic institutions?” – WSJ Editorial Board.

DEBT HEART ATTACK COMING (Fortune via msn)
“Dalio’s fiscal warning remains as stark as ever. The U.S. currently spends roughly $7 trillion annually while collecting about $5 trillion in revenue—a gap that has the federal government paying billions every week in debt service and has left the country carrying debt approximately six times its income. He likens the situation to “plaque building up” in an artery: no heart attack yet, but the nation’s financial “MRI” suggests one is coming if spending isn’t curtailed.
(In fact, Dalio understated how much the U.S. pays in interest each week: The Peter G. Peterson Foundation reports the U.S. paid $970 billion in interest in 2025, with the CBO projecting $1.039 trillion in 2026—working out to roughly $19 billion–$20 billion per week.)
The most likely outcome, in Dalio’s view, is a stagflationary spiral reminiscent of the 1970s, in which the Federal Reserve is eventually forced to print money to cover its obligations. “My grandchildren and great-grandchildren not yet born are going to be paying off this debt in devalued dollars…” Story at…
Ray Dalio: The ‘heart attack’ of America’s debt crisis is just the beginning of a ‘great turbulence’ that will reshape the country

EMPLOYMENT REPORT (NBC News)
“The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, a sign that the labor market retained its resiliency even in the face of a global energy shock triggered by the U.S. war with Iran. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%.” Story at…
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/april-jobs-report-iran-war-pressure-rcna344166
My cmt: 200,000 jobs-created was once considered a minimum necessary to allow for young people entering the work force.

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April’s reading and comparable to the trough reached in June 2022… consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall. Year-ahead inflation expectations softened a touch from 4.7% last month to 4.5% this month.” Report at…
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7399.
-VIX rose about 0.6% to 17.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.360% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
SSO – Added 5/7/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +8 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 made a new, all-time, high today (Friday). 110 issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week-highs today; that is below the 5-year average for this stat, but reasonably high enough to avoid trouble. Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, is ok too; we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon. There are concerns though.

The S&P 500 has gotten too far ahead of breadth-measures and the Smart Money is overbought. Bollinger Bands are very close to overbought and RSI is elevated too. These signals could swing my top indicators to a short-term, top-warning and signal about a 3-5% decline. I will sell leveraged positions when I get a top-warning. A 5% decline in the S&P 500 would result in a 10% loss in SSO. I’d rather avoid that.

I’ll wait for indicators to improve before I add more stock positions. If we do get a 3-5% decline, it will be time to buy-the-dip.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, May 7, 2026

Jobless Claims … Productivity … Construction Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +14 to +8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed back lower, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

Oops. I bought a trading position in a leveraged long position (SSO) because at 3PM, the 10-dMA of indicator spread was positive. It switched to a negative position on declining internals/indicators late in the day. That’s disappointing.

I’ll wait for indicators to improve before I slowly add more stock positions.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish; we may see some flattening of the FOMO trade.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Adding to Stock Positions

I plan to add to stock positioning after 3 pm depending on market action. I looked at SOXX but it seems to be near its upper, long-term, trend line - same for AMD. Surprisingly. SPY and SSO are not yet at their upper trend lines. I only have 1 top indicator warning of a top so I should be ok for a while. I'll add SSO as a trade. It might be a short-term trade - we'll see..

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

ADP Employment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“We’re not looking for a fight, but Iran also cannot be allowed to block innocent countries and their goods from an international waterway. Iran’s plan, a form of international extortion, is unacceptable.” – Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense (War).

“Iran has been carrying out the fastest wave of political executions in its recent history. In just seven weeks, at least 28 people have been put to death on political, protest-related, or espionage charges, according to a US-based human rights group. CNN’s Clarissa Ward reports.” - CNN

WSJ LETTERS (WSJ)
“Regarding Alan Dershowitz’s op-ed “Why I’m Becoming a Republican” (April 21): As the daughter of Holocaust survivors, I am sickened by how anti-Israel the Democratic Party has become. The vast majority of 20th-century Jewish immigrants who came to the U.S. all voted Democratic.
They would be horrified by what has become of the party. It’s too bad that Trump Derangement Syndrome has mutated into Israel Derangement Syndrome.” - Judith Levine

APOLLO CEO WARNS OF CORRECTION (CNBC)
“Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan on Wednesday warned investors that he is preparing his giant asset management firm for a potential market downturn and sharply criticized what he called the “egregious” practices of some rival insurers…“Everything we see in front of us is actually quite strong,” Rowan said. But there is “a much greater chance, in our opinion, of out-of-sideline results.’…Rowan put the odds of an exogenous shock at somewhere between 30% and 35%, far higher than the usual level of risk, he said.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/apollo-ceo-rowan-market-correction-rival-insurers.html

ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP)
“Private sector employment increased by 109,000 jobs in April and pay was up 4.4 percent year-over-year according to the April ADP National Employment Report®…’Small and large employers are hiring, but we're seeing softness in the middle," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Large companies have resources to deploy, and small ones are the most nimble, both important advantages in a complex labor environment.’" Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-109-000-jobs-in-april-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302764101.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.5% to 7365.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 17.39.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.426% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +9 to +16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 made a new high today (Wednesday – again {had a typo here yesterday}). 207 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is above the 5-year average for this stat. Breadth is ok; we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon

Wednesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. Tops almost always occur on Statistically-significant, up-days, but not all statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. Today could be a short-term top, but there was only 1 top indicator (late-day-action is overbought) that was bearish - not enough to send a strong top-signal.

The 10-dMA of Indicator Spread turned positive today. It last reversed higher at the bottom of the recent correction and again several days before the bottom. I didn’t buy then because the correction has been news-driven and as a retiree my goal is not to lose money. A shift in news could have sent the markets plummeting and a retiree doesn’t have the income to recover losses, so not-losing can be more important than making money.

At this point the indicators and war news look better so it is time to add to stock holdings. I don’t want to leap in because of the old “Buy-the-rumor; sell-the-news” adage. When the middle east issues are resolved we might see some selling of the news.

For now, I’ll start averaging in. The way the chips have performed and given AMD’s bullish comments, I may add the Semi-Conductor ETF, SOXX as a trade.

Is the market headed for an overblown top? Of course it is, but when? The Shiller CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted PE) is now around 40 while the peak was 44 prior to the Dotcom crash in 2000. Since there are now more investors chasing fewer stocks, I think the record high for the CAPE will be exceeded in this cycle.

During the Dotcom bust, I sold out of stock positions early in 2000 because of an article in Barrons and Bob Brinker’s Marketimer radio show. I expect to do as well in 2000. This time, I’ll be watching indicators.
Chart from…
https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/56/sp-500-shiller-cape-ratio
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, but we may see some flattening of the FOMO trade.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, May 5, 2026

ISM Non-Manufacturing … New Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“We’re not looking for a fight, but Iran also cannot be allowed to block innocent countries and their goods from an international waterway. Iran’s plan, a form of international extortion, is unacceptable.” – Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense (War).

RECESSION COMING IN 2026? (The Street)
“In an interview with Business Insider, Shilling [legendary economist Gary Shilling] said a U.S. recession is almost inevitable by year-end, and that the S&P 500 could fall as much as 30% before 2026 is over. He sees converging conditions — a frozen housing market, weakening consumer spending, and stock valuations stretched to levels not seen since the dot-com era — without a plausible escape hatch… ‘The only things that could prevent a downturn,’ Shilling told Business Insider, ‘are a burst of fiscal stimulus or continued strength of the U.S. consumer, both of which he considers unlikely.” - Gary Shilling, American financial analyst and a member of the Nihon Keizai Shimbun Board of Economists. Story at…
https://www.google.com/search?q=gary+shillling&rlz=1C1VDKB_enUS1188US1189&oq=gary+shillling&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIPCAEQLhgNGIMBGLEDGIAEMggIAhAAGAMYDTIICAMQABgDGA0yCQgEEAAYDRiABDIJCAUQABgNGIAEMgkIBhAAGA0YgAQyCQgHEAAYDRiABDIICAgQABgDGA3SAQk3Mzc5ajBqMTWoAgiwAgHxBYYhL_5fM64V&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

BANK OF AMERICA CAUTIOUS (The Street)
“Stocks are setting records, but professional investors are not meaningfully increasing their equity exposure. That gap between price performance and positioning is unusual. It suggests that the most sophisticated market participants are not confident enough to chase the rally, even after it has already happened…BofA also flagged three specific risks that it believes the market is underpricing. The first is narrow rally participation…The second is equity supply-demand dynamics. BofA sees the backdrop worsening, which can make it harder for stocks to keep rising…The third is geopolitical risk.,, BofA's message is not a call to exit the market. It is a call to think more carefully about what is holding the rally up.” Story at…
Bank of America issues blunt warning to Wall Street on stock market

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its April Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 53.6. This was lower than the forecast of 53.7 but keeps the index in expansion territory for a 22nd consecutive month.” From…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/05/05/ism-services-pmi-april-2026

NEW HOME SALES (NAHB)
Constrained supply of existing homes and modest improvement in mortgage rates pushed new home sales higher in March.
Sales of newly built single-family homes rose 7.4% in March…” From…
https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2026/05/new-home-sales-rise-supported-by-limited-existing-inventory

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7259.
-VIX declined about 5% to 17.38.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.426% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -4 to +9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

Yesterday I noted that the indicator spread switched from +5 to -4, a change in spread of -9. Today the was a change in spread of +13, another big reversal. Where does that leave me? The 10-dMA of the spread (purple line in the above chart) is still falling so I am not yet inclined to add to stock holdings.

The S&P 500 made a new high today (Wednesday). 192 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is slightly above the 5-year average.

More than 50% of stocks in the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-dMA’s. The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE was also above 50%. These stats show breadth is ok so we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon

Today’s action pushed the breadth up to acceptable levels – it was looking worrisome yesterday.

I said yesterday, my guess is that markets will retrace about half of their gains. At this point, that call looks weak. The middle east news looks better as the US has escorted a couple of commercial vessels thru the Strait of Hormuz while destroying six Iranian gunboats who were attacking foreign vessels. Since the correction was news driven it is logical that better news can push markets higher. Futures are looking up as I write this.

I’d still like to see the indicators turn higher, before getting optimistically bullish.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, May 4, 2026

Factory Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

May the Fourth be with you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1soJQ_rGgNU

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

YOU CAN’T TRUST ‘CLIMATE ECONOMICS (WSJ Excerpt)
“The scientific journal Nature in December retracted one of the most influential climate economics papers of the past decade. The paper, by Maximilian Kotz, Anders Levermann and Leonie Wenz, claimed that unmitigated climate change would cost the global economy $38 trillion a year (in 2005 international dollars) by midcentury. It was the second-most-mentioned climate paper by the media in 2024, according to Carbon Brief. The paper was cited by central banks and governments to justify aggressive climate policies.
Then it collapsed. The authors acknowledged that its errors were “too substantial” for a correction. Nature retracted the paper more than 18 months after first learning of its problems…
… Economists Finbar Curtin and Matthew Burgess at the University of Wyoming released a preprint on April 20 that points out the broader flaws with current climate change research, making the Kotz et al. retraction look like small potatoes. Their paper, “The Empirically Inscrutable Climate-Economy Relationship,” starts from the most basic question in climate economics: Can researchers actually measure how climate affects the economy from the historical record?
Their answer is no…
… If the scientific community can’t act on obviously false data—when the problems are carefully documented in the peer-reviewed literature—the prospects for soon correcting course on tens of thousands of flawed studies don’t look promising.
None of this means that climate change isn’t real. Human activity warms the planet. The uncertain risks merit serious discussion and responses. But so-called settled science that is built on flawed data and shielded from correction fails both policymakers and the public.” - Roger Pielke Jr. Senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of the Honest Broker substack. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/you-cant-trust-climate-economics-86436c3e

VICTORY FOR VOTING RIGHTS (WSJ)
“To hear the critics tell it, the Supreme Court on Wednesday gutted the 1965 Voting Rights Act and made it harder for racial minorities to vote. It did no such thing. A 6-3 majority in Louisiana v. Callais took a large step toward ending the partisan abuse of race to carve up Congressional districts in a way that violates the Constitution… Justice Samuel Alito’s majority opinion gives a detailed history of Section 2 and a tour of the Court’s messy racial gerrymander jurisprudence. He stresses “the general rule that the Constitution almost never permits the Federal Government or a State to discriminate on the basis of race” except to remedy specific instances of past discrimination.
But as Justice Alito notes, much has changed since Jim Crow. The VRA stamped out discriminatory election practices. “Black voters now participate in elections at similar rates as the rest of the electorate, even turning out at higher rates than white voters in two of the five most recent Presidential elections nationwide and in Louisiana,” he writes.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/lousiana-v-callais-supreme-court-voting-rights-act-samuel-alito-4f060bdb?mod=article_inline

US DEBT – A LEAGUE OF ITS OWN (Fortune)
“The U.S. is now unmatched in a regrettable category. Among rich and spend-happy nations that are globally seen as safe investments, the U.S. beats out the competition when it comes to the size of its debt burden, as the nation’s public liabilities have exceeded the size of its economy for the first time since World War II…Rising debt comes with a long list of economic risks, including the threat that the cost of servicing that debt might crowd out other essential government spending. Another consequence would be a deterioration of the country’s once-top tier credit rating, a scenario that could lead to higher borrowing costs and even more constrained government spending. After the CRFB’s announcement, one of the world’s foremost rate-setters warned how close that scenario is to becoming reality.” Story at…
The US is in a league of its own when it comes to its debt burden, as rating agencies bemoan 'long-running deterioration' in fiscal governance

DON’T BUILD YOUR PORTFOLIO BACKWARDS (Motley Fool)
“Portfolio construction should have an order to it. Generally speaking, you start with a core position or two meant to serve as the tentpole. That could be something like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) or the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEMKT: VTI). Ideally, you wouldn't touch this and instead let the long-term power of compounding do the work for you.
From there, you can start building around the edges. Add some dividend stocks, an international fund, or maybe some bonds or gold. This is where you can tilt the portfolio in a particular direction or simply diversify beyond U.S. large-cap stocks. It's the idea that investors should build the foundation first and layer around it, not the other way around.” Story at…
Most investors build their portfolio backwards. Here's the right order.

FACTORY ORDERS (Haver Analytics)
“Total factory orders rose a stronger-than-expected 1.5% m/m in March following a 0.3% increase in February and a flat reading in January, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.” From…
https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-factory-orders-exceed-expectations-in-march

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7200.
-VIX rose about 8% to 18.29.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.432% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +5 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The indicator spread switched from +5 to -4. That’s a change in spread of -9. That’s a big one-day decline that suggests more declines to come for the S&P 500.

Unchanged volume was very high today suggesting confusion among investors. Some think this represents a reversal and that selling will follow. Since this signal is often wrong, it is not one of my indicators; but it might be right this time. We’ll see.

Based on indicators, my guess is that markets will retrace about half of their gains. That would imply a 5-7% drop from the recent high.

Since I am not expecting declines greater than 10%, I will hold my existing positions and look for a buying opportunity to deploy my cash reserves.

BOTTOM LINE
It looks like we’ll see some declines in the near term, but nothing too big. I am bullish for the long term. I hope to identify a buying opportunity if we do in fact see declines. I’d love to see a retest of the March low, but I doubt that declines will be that big.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)