Navigate the Stock Market

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Leading Economic Indicators … Consumer Sentiment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

It was a busy day Friday so I’m posting Friday’s blog Saturday. Monday is Memorial Day, so no post Monday.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board)
“The US LEI increased slightly in April, driven mainly by a rebound in stock prices and an increase in building permits, only for two and more units,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The leading index rose in two of the past three months, but the gains did not offset the steep fall registered in March. As a result, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates were negative, signaling fragile economic conditions ahead… The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.7% y/y GDP growth in 2026, revised up slightly from last update of 1.6%.”
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/

CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month as supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to boost gasoline prices. Sentiment is now just below the previous historical trough seen in June 2022. The cost of living continues to be a first-order concern, with 57% of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices were eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month. Lower-income consumers and those without college degrees posted particularly strong sentiment declines; these groups are more sensitive to increases in the cost of gas and other essentials. Independents and Republicans saw decreases in sentiment, with both groups reaching their lowest readings of the current presidential administration. Meanwhile, sentiment of Democrats was little changed from last month. Critically, consumers appear worried that inflation will increase and proliferate beyond fuel prices, even in the long run.
Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up from 4.7% last month to 4.8% this month.” Press release at…
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

TOM LEE – MICHIGAN SENTIMENT IS BIASED (Benzinga)
“Fundstrat Head of Research, Tom Lee criticized the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for what he described as partisan bias, arguing that an imbalance in respondents' political affiliations was skewing the data.” Story at…
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/26/05/52711316/fundstrats-tom-lee-torches-michigan-consumer-sentiment-survey-over-notoriously-partisan-skew-not-a-fair-breakdown

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7473.
-VIX declined about 0.4% to 16.70.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.558% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Pullback Data:
-Days since the top: 6
-Drop from the Top: 0.4%
-% above the 50-dMA: 6.9%
-% above the 200-dMA: 9.8%
Pullback? What pullback?

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -4 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 made a new-all-time high during mid-afternoon at 7506. At the close Friday, breadth was weak. If the S&P 500 had closed at a new-high with weak breadth it would have suggested a significant correction. Since it wasn’t at the close, I am left guessing.

Indicators have been improving as the S&P 500 has been rising over the last three days. It would not be unusual to see the Index make a new high only to fall back into a correction.

On the other hand, I was expecting a 3-5% pullback. We got 2%. Is that enough? Doesn’t seem like it, but we’ll find out next week.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish in the short-term, still expecting a relatively small pullback... but I am much less sure of that call. There are a lot of bulls out there.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Philly Fed … Global PMI … Jobless Claims … Building Permits … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“One of the painful signs of years of dumbed-down education is how many people are unable to make a coherent argument. They can vent their emotions, question other people’s motives, make bold assertions, repeat slogans—anything except reason.” ― Thomas Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.

PHILLY FED (WSJ)
“Growth in manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed’s region pulled back in May, although firms remained optimistic about the forward outlook. The Philly Fed’s monthly Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed its headline index falling to -0.4 this month, from 26.7 in April. Negative numbers indicate a contraction in the manufacturing sector.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/philly-fed-survey-shows-regional-manufacturing-stalled-a9d70c99

JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“Fewer Americans filed for jobless aid last week as layoffs remain low despite a number of uncertainties that continue to cloud the economy. U.S. applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 16 fell by 3,000 to 209,000…” Story at…
https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/us-jobless-aid-filings-fell-209000-week-layoffs-133182650

BUILDING PERMITS (Advisor Perspectives)
“Building permits rose 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.442 million. The latest reading exceeded the forecast of 1.380 million. Building permits are down 0.2% from the previous year.” Story at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/05/21/building-permits-rise-5-8-in-april-higher-than-expected?topic=real-estate

MANUFACTURING PMI (Reuters)
“U.S. manufacturing activity strengthened in May, scaling the highest level in four years, as businesses boosted inventories to guard against ‌potential shortages and rising prices related to the war with Iran.
S&P Global said its flash manufacturing PMI increased to 55.3 this month, the highest reading since May 2022…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-manufacturing-activity-rises-four-year-high-may-sp-global-survey-shows-2026-05-21/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7446.
-VIX declined about 4% to 16.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.574% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Pullback Data:
-Days since the top: 5
-Drop from the Top: 0.7%
-% above the 50-dMA: 6.8%
-% above the 200-dMA: 9.5%
Pullback? What pullback? Not much so far.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -2 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The Fosback Short-Term Hi/Low Index is still flashing sell today, Thursday. As noted previously, this is a reliable indicator.

Thursday, there we didn’t see another Hindenburg Omen. That doesn’t matter, we have seen enough of them already. The Hindenburg Omen remains in place for 30-days unless the McClellan Oscillator is positive.

Breadth remains weak; only 47.5% of issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 2 weeks. For now, longer term breadth values are still ok.

Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, was ok at the top so that suggests that if we do see a correction that it would be less than 10%. On the low side, pullbacks of 3% to 5% are normal and happen all the time. Indicators are still neutral so the guess now is that we are likely to see a small correction.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish in the short-term, still expecting a relatively small pullback.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Fed Minutes … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

TRUMP’S BILLION DOLLAR ‘ANTI-WEAPONIZATION FUND’ (WSJ)
“President Trump, his elder sons, and the family business moved Monday to dismiss their federal lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service for the leak of Mr. Trump’s tax returns. In exchange, the Justice Department said it will create a $1.776 billion fund to compensate targets of government “weaponization.” Could future historians ask for a better emblem of today’s warped political age?... Mr. Trump’s settlement fund is an astounding precedent, and if it proceeds it is sure to become a highlight reel of Trump Administration payments to Mr. Trump’s friends and allies. Imagine the fun Democrats will have documenting it all between now and 2028 as the worst kind of Washington political payoff.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-settlement-fund-doj-irs-todd-blanche-8b1c4303
My cmt: Trump sued the federal government claiming “legal weaponization” by the Biden administration. Now, the Justice Department, an Executive Branch agency whose boss is President Trump, will “settle” the lawsuit by paying off Trump and his cronies!?! Unbelievable! I am speechless.

OFFICERS SUE TO BLOCK “WEAPONIZATION” PAYOUTS (AP News)
“Two police officers who helped defend the U.S. Capitol from an attack by a mob of President Donald Trump’s supporters sued on Wednesday to block anyone — including Jan. 6, 2021, rioters — from receiving payouts from a new $1.776 billion settlement fund for people who claim to be victims of politically motivated prosecutions.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/irs-trump-settlement-tax-returns-police-capitol-riot-fc73eb5f35481bb6d8892ac1e14e98bd

DEMOCRATS DON’T FIGHT FIRE WITH FIRE (WSJ)
“I have an Article II, where I have the right to do whatever I want as president.” – President Trump.
“In order for us to correct the abuses that are happening now, we have to act the same in similar capacities that Trump has given himself,” - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.)
“Donald Trump has made clear that there are no guardrails on executive power that are effective. So, the idea that the next president somehow just doesn’t pick up the tools and use them to execute on the policies that they run on makes no sense… We can’t play the game that Republican presidents get lots of power and Democratic presidents don’t.” - Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.)
… But as we fight fiercely among ourselves, none of us are really winning. Only our foreign adversaries are. The national interest requires what I am convinced most Americans really want—a time of healing, when we relearn the ancient truth that what unites us is more important than what divides us.” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/democrats-dont-fight-fire-with-fire-6c0f48fd
My cmt: They won’t listen to reason. Democrats are planning their revenge.

FED MINUTES (CNBC via msn)
“A majority of Federal Reserve officials at their most recent meeting anticipated that interest rate increases would be necessary if the Iran war continued to aggravate inflation, according to minutes released Wednesday.” Story at…
Fed officials see rate hike ahead if inflation stays elevated, minutes show

CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 445.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at…
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 7433.
-VIX declined about 3.4% to 17.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.585% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Pullback Data:
-Days since the top: 4
-Drop from the Top: 0.9%
-% above the 50-dMA: 6.8%
-% above the 200-dMA: 9.4%

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from zero to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

Wednesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. There was a statistically significant, down-day three days ago. Today’s back and forth action is the type of action one sees during pullbacks, still, today’s move doesn’t say much for the prospects of correction.

The Fosback Short-Term Hi/Low Index is still flashing sell today, Wednesday. As noted yesterday, this is a reliable indicator.

Wednesday, there was another Hindenburg Omen.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. We’ve seen 6 in the last 8 days.

Breadth remains weak; only 45.8% of issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 2 weeks. For now, longer term breadth values are still ok.

Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, was ok at the top so that suggests that if we do see a correction that it would be less than 10%. On the low side, pullbacks of 3% to 5% are normal and happen all the time. Indicators are still neutral so the guess now is that we are likely to see a small correction.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish in the short-term, still expecting a relatively small pullback.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to zero (Equal Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

One of the more reliable indicators, the Fosback Short-Term Hi/Low Index, flashed sell today, Tuesday. Here’s some more on the subject from Hull Tactical:
“The Fosback High-Low Logic Index (HLLI), developed by Norman Fosback, is a market breadth indicator that identifies periods of extreme divergence by measuring the number of stocks hitting 52-week highs and lows simultaneously. A high reading indicates a severely "split" market, often signaling potential market tops or instability.” From…
https://hulltactical.com/2024/12/12/the-fosback-high-low-indicator/

This indicator warned 5-days after the top of the recent 9% correction when the S&P 500 was down less than 1%. It confirms the top-indicators from last week.

The 50-dMA is now 6% above the 50-day. The S&P 500 has fallen 1.9% from its all-time high.

Breadth remains weak; only 45% of issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 2 weeks. For now, longer term breadth values are still ok.

Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, was ok at the top so that suggests that if we do see a correction that it would be less than 10%. On the low side, pullbacks of 3% to 5% are normal and happen all the time. Indicators are still neutral so the guess now is that we are likely to see a small correction.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish in the short-term expecting a relatively small pullback.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, May 18, 2026

Housing Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“A Democratic city council member who once welcomed the "change" from socialist Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson is now admitting he is "gravely concerned" about the business exodus affecting the major American city.
This comes as blue states like Washington and New York face a business exodus in favor of more market-friendly red states. Starbucks, a major player in Seattle’s business scene, recently announced a major expansion into Nashville while simultaneously cutting Seattle-based corporate jobs, a move that has intensified concerns about Seattle’s business climate and economic competitiveness.” Story at…
Dem who welcomed socialist mayor's 'change' now sounding alarm over billionaire exodus: 'Gravely concerned'

CLEANING HOUSE AT CITY HALL (Secret Life of Mom)
“When the Festus City Council approved a $6 billion AI data center on March 30, 2026, it probably expected a degree of community frustration. What happened next exceeded any reasonable expectation. Eight days later, every one of the four incumbent council members up for reelection had been thrown out of office by voters running specifically on opposition to the project.” Story at…
Town votes out every council member who approved a $6 billion AI data center

WE’RE ALL IN DEBT – HOW WILL THE US ECONOMY FUNCTION IF GLOBAL LENDING DRIES UP (Moneywise)
“What happens when the world stops lending to the United States? That's the question raised by economist and gold advocate Peter Schiff in a recent appearance on The Iced Coffee Hour, where he laid out a stark warning about the foundation of the American economy…"When the world doesn't do that, what do we got?" Schiff continued, "How does this economy function?"
Schiff has recently been vocal in his warnings about the direction of the U.S. economy. Just a couple of weeks ago, he wrote on X that, "We are headed for a full-blown financial crisis." Story at…
We're all in debt: Peter Schiff questions how the US economy will function if global lending dries up — here's what it means for investors

LOW HIRING (Moneywise-Thursday)
“CNBC's Rick Santelli could hardly hide his surprise when the latest U.S. jobs data hit the wire. [Thursday – They were low.] "That is truly incredible. We're looking at levels truly that we probably haven't seen since the late '60s. This is very, very incredible."
He wasn't exaggerating the scale of the move. According to the Department of Labor, seasonally adjusted initial claims fell to 189,000 for the week ending April 25, down 26,000 from the previous week's revised level of 215,000…
…Bloomberg reported that the figure marked the lowest level since 1969. Economists had expected 212,000 claims — meaning the actual number came in far below forecasts.” Story at…
'Wow!': CNBC host stunned as 'truly incredible' US jobs number plunges to 189,000 — the lowest level since 1960s. Time to bet on Trump's economy?
My cmt: I commented at the time that this number was below levels needed to employ new hires entering the market. I didn’t realize that it was historically low.

NAHB HOUSING INDEX (advisor Perspectives)
“Builder confidence posted a modest gain in May despite persistent affordability challenges and economic uncertainty. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose 3 points from April to 37 this month, marking the 25th consecutive negative reading. The latest reading was higher than the forecast of 34.”

Analysis and charts at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/05/18/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-may-2026

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 7403.
-VIX declined about 3% to 17.82.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.593% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. – SOLD 5/18/2026
I sold SPY just to cut back on stocks a bit. This takes me back to about fully invested at about 50% in stocks.

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” – 11 May. Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/

SSO – Sold 5/14/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained from +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

I still expect a pullback in the 3-5% range. It could go higher, but the 50-dMA was 8.6% below the S&P 500 when it made its high on Thursday. It is now 6.8% above the 50-day. Those are the likely max declines unless we get further bad news.

Monday, there was another Hindenburg Omen.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. We’ve seen 4 in the last 6 days. The short-term Fosback High-Low Logic Index uses a similar method of analysis. It is very close to issuing a sell-signal too.

Breadth is weak; only 49% of issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 2 weeks. For now, longer term breadth values are still ok.

Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, was ok at the top so that suggests that if we do see a correction that it would be less than 10%. On the low side, pullbacks of 3% to 5% are normal and happen all the time. Indicators are still neutral so the guess now is that we are likely to see a small correction.

The S&P 500 is 6.8% above its 50-dMA.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish in the short-term expecting a relatively small pullback.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Sold some More Stocks

Based on last week's data I cut stock holdings to get me back to a fully invested position of about 50% in stocks. It was a spur-of-the-moment decision. Since I am expecting some level of pullback, why not take a little more off the table?

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Industrial Production … NY Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

It’s been busy; I am finally posting Friday’s blog.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

LATE NIGHT TRUTH SOCIAL STORMS THAT OFFER A WINDOW INTO THE RESIENT’S MIND (WSJ-Excerpt)
“…On Dec. 1, from 8:17 p.m. until just before midnight, the president’s account posted nearly 160 times—more posts than on any other day in his second term. The bursts of social-media activity feature content from other accounts—including images, videos and text—that appeal to the president and his team…

…Natalie Harp, Trump’s executive assistant, plays an integral role in Trump’s Truth Social activity. She brings the president stacks of printed-out draft social-media posts for his approval. The proposed posts often recycle content from other accounts that Harp or advisers think would appeal to Trump, according to people familiar with the matter.
Harp then logs onto the president’s account—at times outside of normal work hours—and posts batches of Trump-approved messages…” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/trump-truth-social-late-night-posts-167cb47a
My cmt: Trump claims January 6 was orchestrated by Nancy Pelosi??!!!
- "Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin
- “When you want to help people, you tell them the truth. When you want to help yourself, you tell them what they want to hear.” - Thomas Sowell,

AOC COULD TURN BACK THE BLUE WAVE (WSJ)
“Why shouldn’t Democrats be confident of a big midterm sweep in November? … Near the top of the list is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez … In a recent “It’s Open With Ilana Glazer” podcast, she revealed just how far she is from the mainstream. AOC blamed opposition to open borders on a “deep racism” and the “impulse . . . to feel like there is another class of people that is below you.” When Ms. Glazer suggested the death of AOC’s father from lung cancer was the fault of capitalism, Mr. Ocasio-Cortez agreed, calling our market system “barbarism.” … AOC isn’t the only Democrat whose utterances unsettle mainstream voters. The Democratic lineup this year is rife with kooks… That crucial part of the electorate could draw a simple, politically lethal conclusion: Too many Democrats are too radical for America.” - Karl Rove, Senior adviser and deputy chief of staff for President George W. Bush and author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).

NY FED MANUFACTURING (Sharecast)
“Manufacturing activity across New York State grew at its highest rate in more than four years in May, according to data from the region's Federal Reserve on Friday, with new orders and shipments surging over the month.” Story at…
https://www.sharecast.com/news/international-economic/empire-state-manufacturing-gauge-hits-four-year-high-but-price-pressures-rise--22498720.html

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Staffing Industry Analysis)
“US industrial production rose in April by the most in over a year, pointing to nascent momentum in the sector. The 0.7% increase in output at factories, mines and utilities followed a revised 0.3% drop in March…The report adds to evidence that the manufacturing sector is holding
https://www.staffingindustry.com/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 improved about 1.2% to 7409.
-VIX rose about 7% to 17.26.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.597% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
SSO – Sold 5/14/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +3 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

The S&P 500 was almost 9% above its 50-day moving average (50-dMA) on Thursday. That’s unusually high except after big bottoms. We had other Top-indicators warn on Thursday. Now we have the hard part – how far will the Index drop?

Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, was ok at the top so that suggests that if we do see a correction that it would be less than 10%. On the low side, pullbacks of 3% to 5% are normal and happen all the time. Indicators are still neutral so the guess now is that we are likely to see a small correction.

The S&P 500 is 7% above its 50-dMA so 3-5% makes sense unless there is more significant bad news. The latest PPI news of 6% inflation was significant bad news. We don’t need more.

BOTTOM LINE
I am Neutral watching indicators and market action.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.