Navigate the Stock Market

Saturday, October 3, 2026

Payroll Report … Unemployment … Factory Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

CRUDE THRU THE STRAIT RECOVERS (NSJ)
“Is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important chokepoints, returning to normal? Crude oil exports through the strait have returned to prewar levels, according to CNBC-cited data. Seven-day averages, as of last Monday, were 13.5 million barrels per day through the strait, roughly matching the prewar crude baseline. More notably, total crude exports from the Middle East region, including the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, reached 19.5 million bpd—above the prewar baseline of roughly 17 million bpd. But the headline numbers obscure an important metric: while crude has recovered, refined fuels have not. So global consumers are likely to still feel economic pain, even as oil begins moving from the Persian Gulf again in meaningful quantities…
…Refined-product flows through Hormuz remain suppressed. Prewar flow was about 3.6 million bpd.
The current seven-day average? Just 677,000 bpd. That’s about 81 percent below prewar levels.” Story At…
Iran just got handed a defeat in Hormuz: Crude exports are back to prewar levels even after Tehran repeatedly declared it closed

FAR LEFT DESTROYING DEMOCRAT PARTY (Mediaite)
“Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville launched into a blistering tirade against the far left, blaming progressive politics for inflicting damage on Democratic Party and declaring it has “not been right about anything, ever!... where would the Democratic Party be now, if there was never anything as idiotic as the identity, or for a lack of a better word, woke movement? How much damage did that cause us? That was insisted on by the far left!”
The longtime strategist then pointed to immigration policy under former President Joe Biden: “How much damage did the early Biden border policy, a nonpolicy, cost Democrats that was insisted on by the left-wing.” … “In the entire history of the Western world, in the whole history, the far left has not been right about anything, ever!” Carville declared.” Story at…
James Carville goes on verbal rampage against far left: 'Not been right about anything ever!'
My cmt: Don’t worry Dems. Trump and his sycophants have done a good job of destroying the Republican party.

TRUMP REGRETS SUPREME COURT NOMINATIONS (USA Today)
“President Donald Trump said he regrets nominating each of the three Supreme Court justices he tapped during his first term, criticizing Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett for ruling against the Trump administration after he picked them for the bench…"Yeah. Yeah, What can I do?" Trump said when asked whether he regrets nominating them. "I put them in. They voted against me too often. I was very—I gave them the position of a lifetime, and they vote against me often." – Story at…
Trump says he regrets nominating Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett to SCOTUS
My cmt: As we have known for some time, Trump has never read, nor does he care about, the Constitution.

PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT (CNBC)
“Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 29,000 for the month while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for job growth of 84,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html

FACTORY ORDERS (Reuters / News Observer)
“New orders for US factory goods barely rose in August as strong demand for electrical equipment, appliances and components was offset by weakness in commercial aircraft orders. Factory orders edged up 0.1%...” Story At…
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article317469768.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 7723.
-VIX declined about 7% to 15.31.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.273% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -18 to -10 (10 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher a BULLISH sign.

Bad news is good news. Jobs came in light. A Fed hike seems less likely; bond yields fell; stocks rose. The Fed Watch indicator from CME Group had a 37% likelihood of a Fed hike at the 28 October meeting a few days ago. Now it has fallen to 23%.

The spread between New-Highs and new-lows made a large bullish move today. New-lows still outpace new-highs, but there were a lot fewer new-lows. That can be a good sign of a bottom, but it is not one of my bottom indicators. (I know; that makes no sense.)

As previously noted, the following condition remains: only 7 days have been up in the last month and that is an oversold signal. The 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator continues to signal “Buy,” another probable bottom signal.

Bottom may not be the right term. The S&P 500 bounced up from its 50-dMA and that is a routine occurrence. Maybe we’ll finally put some distance between the Index and the 50-dMA.

All this talk about “bottoms” CNBC sellers, and “weakness”… the S&P 500 closed 1% below its all-time high, Friday. Obviously, I know nothing!

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, October 1, 2026

Jobless Claims … ISM Manufacturing … Construction Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -18 (18 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed lower a BEARISH sign.

Seems like the indicators were here not long ago. We can see in the 50 Indicator Spread chart above that the daily spread (red) is almost as low as it was on 10 September. Then, as now, conditions are set for a correction; but that doesn’t mean a correction is guaranteed. It isn’t; indicators are showing weakness, but Price is still hanging in there. As long as the S&P 500 shows strength, I am in wait and see mode. The S&P 500 is still above its 50-dMA and its lower trendline.

I heard Josh Brown on CNBC's midday show pointing out that 5% bonds are a good deal. He also suggested that investors might consider taking money off the table. One of the pundits recommended the 10-year bond as a “Final Trade.” I think that may be the first time I’ve seen that. But it does point out another headwind for the market and I think that was Josh Brown’s point. Years ago, I used to watch the CNBC “Fast Money” show. If all of the experts were recommending an action, for example “sell,” it usually marked a good time to buy.

I am watching indicators and market action to see if I will lighten up on stocks… or buy more.

Breadth remains weak whether measured by advancing issues or new-highs.

As previously noted, only 7 days have been up in the last month and that is an oversold signal. The 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator continues to signal “Buy,” a probable bottom signal. But it is only one bottom indicator that is bullish. Others have not yet signaled “BUY” and they may not since there hasn’t been much of a bottom yet. I’ll wait for more bullish signs before adding to stock holdings.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish, but a drop below the 50-dMA could change that.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Inflation … GDP … ADP Employment … Chicago PMI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

LETTER TO EDITOR WSJ (WSJ)
“The decision to invite Vladimir Putin to the upcoming G-20 summit demands a unified, uncompromising response from the international community (“Trump Gives Putin Another Blessing,” Review & Outlook, Sept. 26). The invitation is an insult to the civilized world.
We have seen this spineless script before. In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain returned from Berlin waving a worthless piece of paper signed by Hitler, naively promising “peace for our time.” History has already shown us the cost of accommodating aggressive tyrants. That pathetic appeasement didn’t prevent war; it fueled a monster.
Sitting at a table with Mr. Putin today repeats that exact mistake. Normalizing a war criminal under the guise of global diplomacy is cowardice. The only acceptable response is a total boycott. Paralyze the summit, expose the tyrant and let him talk to himself.” - Jessica Korzenecki, WSJ Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/dont-turn-the-g-20-into-a-victory-lap-for-the-kremlin-1e0fae21?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos9

ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP)
“Private employers added 90,000 jobs in September. Hiring accelerated for the first time since May, led by education and health care and leisure and hospitality. Financial activities and professional and business services showed weakness. "It's a strong report. After a three-month slowdown, job creation rebounded and pay growth remained solid." - Dr. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP.” Report at…
https://adpemploymentreport.com/

GDP – FINAL (CNN)
“Gross domestic product grew at a 2.2% inflation-adjusted annualized pace in the second quarter, a sharper rebound than the 1.5% rate previously estimated as stronger consumer spending and business investment helped power growth." Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/30/economy/us-economy-gdp-q2-final

PCE PRICES - FINAL (CNBC)
“The August personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s main inflation gauge, saw an increase of 3.4% on headline and 3% for core, both well below estimates.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/feds-preferred-gauge-showed-core-inflation-at-3point0percent-in-august-much-lighter-than-expected.html
My cmt: The CME Group Fed Watch tool placed the odds of a rate hike at 37% at the next Fed meeting on 28 October.

CHICAGO PMI (Sharecast)
“The ISM-Chicago purchasing managers' index, which tracks business conditions across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, surged to 58.8 last month, well ahead of the 47.1 print recorded in August. This was comfortably above the consensus forecast of 51.2 and the highest rate of expansion…since May.” Story at…
https://www.sharecast.com/amp/news/international-economic/chicago-pmi-smashes-forecasts-to-hit-four-month-high--23718732.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 7652.
-VIX rose about 2% to 16.34.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.302% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

Ugly chart and the S&P 500 closed at its low, but that was on its 50-dMA. The 50-day is usually a good level of support, so we’ll hoper the markets are at a short-term bottom.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -12 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher (but just barely), a BULLISH sign.

Rinse and repeat; the following looks like the past several days.
Our conclusion hasn’t changed. The 10-day spread is still bullish, even if it is just barely. We also note that the index remains within in its upward moving channel (red lines in the above chart) so there is no point in getting too concerned. The S&P 500 is at its 50-dMA and only 1.9% below its all-time high.

Breadth remains weak whether measured by advancing issues or new-highs.

As noted yesterday, only 7 days have been up in the last month and that is an oversold signal. The 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator continues to signal “Buy,” a probable bottom signal. But it is only one bottom indicator that is bullish. Others have not yet signaled “BUY” and they may not since there hasn’t been much of a bottom yet. I’ll wait for more bullish signs before adding to stock holdings.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish, but a drop below the 50-dMA will change that.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Consumer Confidence … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

US MILITARY DIDN’T ANNOUNCE SHIP MISSILE STRIKE (NSJ)
“According to a report Monday by Task & Purpose, which cited an update to the Defense Casualty Analysis System, nine Marines and 29 sailors were wounded in the month of September in “overseas operations,” as part of their support of the Iran War… The report added that, in total, 443 service members had been wounded in action between July 7 and the report on September 23, with 417 wounded during the period known as Operation Epic Fury. All 860 of those wounded, the report said, came as due to “hostile action.” Story at…
The US military never announced that an Iranian cruise missile had struck a ship with American marines aboard it
My cmt: These numbers are already higher than the US incurred during the Persian Gulf War from 1990-1991; and we had troops on the ground during the 1^st Gulf War. This is just another sign that Hegseth/Trump didn’t have a clue when they attacked Iran. Apparently, US drone defense hasn’t caught up with drone capabilities. That should have been obvious. The WSJ reported that “Ukrainian drone operators have repeatedly trounced North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops, including Americans, in military exercises.” (WSJ – “Inside Ukraine’s Drone Mission Control Room”, Saturday/Sunday Sept 26-27). Given that we lacked effective and sufficient drone defense, the attack on Iran was ill timed and reckless.
Regarding the reporting, reporters are nit-wits: it is not normal to tell the enemy how effective their strikes have been.

Still, the news from the Gulf is getting better…

OIL IS TRAVERSING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ (CNN)
“Gulf oil producers, with considerable support from the US Navy, are jamming crude through the Strait of Hormuz, right under Iran’s nose.
Oil and petroleum product flows through the critical chokepoint averaged 13.1 million barrels per day last week, according to Kpler, a marine data tracking service. That’s just under 80% of the 17.1 million barrels that had traveled through the strait each day before the war broke out.” Story at…
Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can't go on like this forever

BOND SELLOFF GETTING WORSE (Markets Insider)
“The sell-off in US Treasurys picked up steam on Monday as traders took in the latest developments in the US-Iran war and a fresh surge in oil prices. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 8 basis points to 5.26%, a level fixed income investors haven't seen since 2002…The move attests to investors' worries about inflation and appeared to be fueled by President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal for a ceasefire and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
… Top economist Mohamed El-Erian said it looked like yields would remain elevated for the near-term, even if oil prices were lower...
"We have an imbalance in longer-term demand for bonds and longer-term supply of bonds," he said, speaking to CNBC on Monday. "We're not going back to 4%, 4.50%, 4.25%, simply because there's too much of an imbalance in the supply and demand." Story at…
Why the historic US bond sell-off is getting even worse

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^® fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 (1985=100) in September, down from 88.6 in August… “The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board… Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024. Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory. Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.” Report at…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7671.
-VIX declined about 0.2% to 16.04.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 5.234% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -12 (12 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Our conclusion is similar to yesterday. The 10-day spread is still bullish, even if it is just barely bullish. We also note that the index remains within in its upward moving channel (red lines in the above chart) so there is no point in getting too concerned. The S&P 500 is 0.3% above its 50-dMA and only 1.6% below its all-time high.

Breadth remains weak.

On a more positive note, only 7 days have been up in the last month and that is an oversold signal. The 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator continues to signal “Buy,” a probable bottom signal. But it is only one bottom indicator that is bullish. Others have not yet signaled “BUY” and they may not since there hasn’t been much of a bottom yet. I wait for more bullish signs before adding to stock holdings.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, September 28, 2026

Texas Manufacturing Outlook … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

INSIDE UKRAIN’S DRONE MISSION CONTROL ROOM (WSJ – Excerpt)
“The Unmanned Systems Forces… amounts to 2.5% of Ukraine’s armed forces, but it’s responsible for approximately a third of all Russian casualties in the past year.
…bureaucratic entrenchment hinders speed, efficiency, flexibility and innovation. How’s that working out? Iran is fighting asymmetrically, and a mighty show of U.S. force hasn’t been enough to restore free passage in the Strait of Hormuz. Europe can’t seem to stop suspicious drones from loitering near sensitive military sites and critical infrastructure. Last month Germany failed to detect an explosives-laden drone at the airport in Leipzig but got lucky when the detonator failed. Ukrainian drone operators have repeatedly trounced North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops, including Americans, in military exercises.
Something fundamental has changed about the threat, and that requires institutional changes to Western militaries.
…Our interview happens the same week as the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, which were an early example of asymmetrical warfare. “America already knows how one incident can turn everything upside down,” Maj. Brovdi [Maj. Robert “Magyar” Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces] says. “I don’t wish for something like this to happen involving drones, but it’s unavoidable. We need to prepare for that.” - Jillian Kay Melchior, London-based Editorial Board Member of The Wall Street Journal.
My cmt: The US has taken casualties and damage at middle eastern bases due to lack of drone defenses at those positions. We seem un-prepared for the Iran war that Hegseth and Trump began.

ANOTHER IMPEACHMENT (Newsmax)
“Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, warned Sunday that Democrats would impeach President Donald Trump for a third time if they capture control of the House in November's midterm elections. Jordan, speaking on New York's WABC radio show "The Cats Roundtable" with John Catsimatidis, predicted Democrats would use congressional oversight powers to target Trump, his administration, and others aligned with the president… Jordan also predicted that Democrats could target the eventual 2028 Republican presidential nominee and running mate with what he described as "nonstop weaponized investigations. Not for legitimate oversight, but to just go after your political opponents," he said.” Story at…
Rep. Jordan predicts 3rd Trump impeachment if Dems win
My cmt: Hmmmm. Why would the Democrats would want retribution against Trump and his allies? – Just kidding.

TEXAS MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK (Dallas FED)
“Texas manufacturing output growth accelerated sharply in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, jumped 13 points to 29.5, a reading suggestive of a robust pace of output expansion.” Story at…
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2026/2609

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 784.
-VIX rose about 8% to 16.07.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.236% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -5 to -12 (12 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

It’s disappointing to see indicators fall, but the 10-day spread is still bullish. We also note that the index remains within in its upward moving channel (red lines in the above chart) so there is no point in getting too concerned. The S&P 500 is still 0.6% above its 50-dMA and only 1.5% below its all-time high.

The 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator continues to signal “Buy.” I noted last week that it may be time to add to stock holdings, but I am going to wait for more bullish signs.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, September 25, 2026

Durable Goods … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -1 to -5 (5 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Thursday and Friday, the 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator was signaling “Buy”. What does that mean? I asked Google AI:
“A "buy" signal from a 5-day or short-term variation of Norman Fosback’s High-Low Logic Index means the market has experienced a washout or extreme capitulation, signaling a potential market bottom.“

Fosback’s Hi/Lo Index uses new-highs and new-lows in its calculation. Friday, there were only 12 new-highs. When was the last time we saw 12 or fewer new, 52-week highs? I had to go back to April 2025 when there were only 7. That was the day after the bottom of a 19% correction. (There was only 1 on the day of the bottom.) Go back further and we note only 8 at the bottom of the 25% correction in October of 2022. Low numbers are signaling bottoms; thus, we can validate Fosback’s analysis with that simple check.

The S&P 500 is less than 1% from all-time highs.

It may be time to add to stock holdings. Let’s see what happens next week.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)