Credit Bubble … Consumer Confidence … Dallas Fed Services … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
VIRGINIA SUPREME COURT REFERENDUM RULING (Newsweek)
“The Virginia Supreme Court dealt Democrats a significant setback on Tuesday, refusing to halt a lower‑court order that bars officials from certifying last week’s redistricting referendum while the justices consider whether to throw out the results entirely. The ruling leaves in limbo a constitutional amendment approved by voters that would install a new congressional map crafted by Democratic lawmakers, which could see Democrats gain as many as 4 seats in the U.S. House.” Story at…
Democrats dealt blow by Virginia Supreme Court after redistricting win
 
THE CREDIT BUBBLE EVERYBODY’S IGNORING (WSJ – Excerpt)
“Rising defaults in private credit are rattling investors, while apparent fraud by some borrowers has fueled worries about lax underwriting. Investors are rushing to get their money out of funds to avoid getting stuck with big losses. Politicians are calling for—what else?—more regulation.
But private-credit problems pale in comparison to the less-reported risks in federal student loans and mortgages, which could ripple through the economy. The Biden team’s version of extend-and-pretend concealed the cracks for a time, but defaults are rapidly rising on government-backed loans. Taxpayers will inevitably be left holding the bag.” – Allysia Finley, WSJ Editorial Board. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-credit-bubble-everybodys-ignoring-e457c0ae
 
SOME KIND OF BOND CRISIS AHEAD (CNBC)
“JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday warned that rising government debt levels could trigger a crisis in the bond market, urging policymakers to act before markets force their hand…A bond crisis would likely mean a sudden jump in yields and a breakdown in market liquidity, where investors rush to sell and buyers recede, typically forcing central banks to step in as buyers of last resort…“We haven’t had a credit recession in so long, so when we have one, it would be worse than people think,” Dimon said. “It might be terrible.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/jamie-dimon-bond-crisis-global-debt-risks.html
My cmt: I would expect to see my indicators warn if a crisis were impending.
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^® edged up by 0.6 points to 92.8 (1985=100) in April, from 92.2 in March’s upwardly revised reading… “Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month. This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labor market, both current and expected, as well as income expectations, which were slightly more optimistic in April.” Press release at…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/
 
TEXAS SERVICE SECTOR OUTLOOK ( Dallas Fed)
“Texas service sector activity increased in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, edged up three points to 4.3, suggesting revenue increased slightly… Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen in April, though the indexes were less negative than the prior month. The general business activity index ticked up three points to -9.9, and the company outlook index rose five points to -5.0. Meanwhile, the outlook uncertainty index dipped two points to 24.8 but was still well above the series average of 14.1.” Press release at…
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2026/2604
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7139.
-VIX declined about 1% to 17.83. (The Options players seem less worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.348% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +9 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication, but just barely. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
As noted previously, we can see a clear divergence between the indicators and the S&P 500 in the above chart. We need to keep watching this. It may be that the Index is going to give up some of the recent gains. We could see a 50% retracement where the Index gives up half of its gains. That would imply a 5-7% drop from the recent high. Another possibility is that the S&P 500 might retest its low of 6344. That alternative is probably less likely since the Index made new highs off the low. Neither of these alternatives are indicated yet, but they will be if indicators continue to decline.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Dallas Fed … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING (Dallas Fed)
“Texas factory activity continued to rise in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was largely unchanged at 5.1, a reading indicative of modest growth.
Other measures of manufacturing activity signaled contraction, however. The new orders index plummeted 20 points to -20.0. The capacity utilization index edged down to -3.8, and the shipments index fell into negative territory for the first time this year, slipping to -5.5 from 6.1. Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen notably in April.” Story at…
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 7174.
-VIX declined about 3.7% to 18.02.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.340% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +10 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high Monday. New, all-time highs for the S&P 500 give us an opportunity to check the health of the stock market. Specifically, we look at market breadth to make sure there is plenty of participation across the market.
 
The S&P 500 made a new high today (Monday). 116 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is below the 5-year average, but still reasonably high. More than 50% of stocks in the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-dMA’s. These stats show breadth is ok so we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon
 
As noted previously, markets continue higher while the indicators drift down. This diversion is a concern, but with 9 more bullish indictors than bearish, the markets are in decent shape. Until the S&P 500 confirms the indicator downtrend, there is no point in worrying, but I remain somewhat cautious.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
SCHUMER STRIKES AGAIN
“America is crying out for relief from high costs, and you’re here adding $140 billion to an agency that nobody — two groups — Border Patrol and ICE, that nobody respects in this country.” – Chuck Schumer. Democrat, Senate Minority Leader. 
    My cmt: It’s this kind of politically absurd comment that might keep Democrats from taking over the House and Senate at the mid-term elections. The Democrats are still preventing funding TSA. Only Trump’s emergency order to fund them has stopped the airport delays, missed flights, and reporting of the failed Democrat policies. And for the record, again, I despise the MAGA Republicans too. On a different but related subject, the Budget policies of our Politicians are destroying this country. Tax-and-Spend Democrats or Cut-Tax-and-Spend Republicans – it makes no difference.
 
UNUSUAL FEAR GAUGE (CNBC)
“The VIX and S&P do move in tandem about 20% of the time, but if a "VIX-up/stocks-up" environment lingers for more than a few days it means a few things are likely happening under the surface of the market. One explanation is simply that investors are doubtful of new highs in stocks and hedging against risks like the Iran war and crude oil…
…A more bullish interpretation – one that fits with what we see in options trading around earnings – is that traders are willing to buy expensive premiums in upside calls…That enthusiasm is keeping options prices inflated, which could help explain why VIX is so sticky.” Story at…
Wall Street's 'fear gauge' is doing something unusual. What it means
 
RECESSION RISK (Moneywise)
"’Recession risks thus remain uncomfortably high, with close to even odds of a downturn in the coming year," Zandi [Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics]wrote on X. "So says our leading recession indicator.’… Zandi argues that…the job market has been rather flat since "Liberation Day" a year ago, when the Trump administration's sweeping tariffs took effect and hiring slowed down…If you take out health care, which is the only sector that's still consistently adding jobs, the rest of the economy has been shedding them. ‘Without health care,’ he says, ‘the economy would be losing jobs.’ Zandi also places a share of the blame on two big forces: the Trump administration's tariffs, and the sharply restrictive immigration policies. "’The tariffs are cutting increasingly deeply into the profits of American companies and the purchasing power of American households,’ he said on X (10). ‘Fewer immigrant workers means a smaller economy.’" Story at…
Moody's top economist says the US job market is already in decline — and the risks of a recession are 'uncomfortably high'
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7165.
-VIX declined about 3% to 18.71.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.306% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers
 
The Bearish Outside Reversal signal from yesterday is canceled today since the S&P 500 closed above yesterday’s high.
 
Markets continue to power higher while the indicators drift down. This diversion is a concern, but with 10 more bullish indictors than bearish, the markets are in decent shape. Until the S&P 500 confirms the indicator downtrend, there is no point in worrying, but I remain somewhat cautious.
 
Here’s an interesting chart that tracks Top and Bottom signals. Buy signals occur when the chart reaches +5; Sell signals are at -6. The current value is -3, but we can see that the chart is better at calling Buy-signals.
 

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Jobless Claims … KC Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

   

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

 

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

 

DEBT WARNING – US MAY CEASE TO BE A GREAT POWER (Fortune)

“Interest payments on the U.S. national debt are set to surpass $1 trillion in 2026, some $88 billion a month—equal to spending on defense and education combined… An excess of debt over defense is a violation of Ferguson’s Law, as described by Hoover Institution economic historian Sir Niall Ferguson in a working paper published earlier this year. Ferguson’s Law states that “any great power that spends more on debt servicing than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power. This is because the debt burden draws scarce resources towards itself, reducing the amount available for national security, and leaving the power increasingly vulnerable to military challenge.”

When interest on national debt overtook military spending, it triggered a limit where the US may cease to be a great power, warns Hoover historian

 

VIRGINIA’S RACE TO THE GERRYMANDER BOTTOM (WSJ)

“The gerrymander race to the bottom escalated on Tuesday as Democrats in Virginia won a narrow victory to redraw their state map to add as many as four Democratic House seats. This is bad news for GOP control of the House in November, but Republicans can also blame President Trump for starting this rolling rock that has now come down on their heads… Barack Obama on Tuesday hailed Virginia for “stand[ing] up for our democracy,” but the vote effectively ends competitive elections for Congress in most of the state. This is why voters don’t take seriously Democratic complaints about GOP threats to democracy… The main accomplishment of this gerrymander free-for-all will be to further polarize the U.S. House. The number of competitive seats in the general election will shrink. Party primaries will increasingly be the only real competition, and that will drive candidates to court the most partisan voters. The result will be more fools and posers like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Jasmine Crockett in Congress.” Opinion at…

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/virginia-gerrymander-democrats-house-congress-abigail-spanberger-69bf939b?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

My cmt: I heard a Constitutional expert (Professor Brad Jacob from Regent University) speak on the subject today. He said it was very likely that the Virginia gerrymander election will be nullified by the courts. A District court in Virginia has already ruled it invalid. There are two issues facing the Virginia Supreme Court when it is appealed: (1) The vote was not timed properly – it’s too close to the election in November. (2) The wording of the amendment on the ballot was misleading and confusing.

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)

“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits inched up last week but remains within the historically healthy range of recent years. U.S. jobless aid applications for the week ending April 18 rose by 6,000 to 214,000…” Story at…

https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-bf89154a8f200cc53b08b6ce41d787b0

 

KC FED MANUFACTURING (KC Fed)

“Tenth District manufacturing activity grew further, while expectations for future activity rose slightly from last month. Raw materials prices increased sharply this month, while fewer firms reported increasing their finished product prices…. This month, contacts were asked special questions about changes in energy costs and ability to pass through energy-related costs. Almost all (93%) of firms reported that they have experienced higher transportation costs in the last two months…” - WSJ Editorial Board. Story at…

https://www.kansascityfed.org/surveys/manufacturing-survey/tenth-district-manufacturing-activity-grew-further-in-april/

 

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY

-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7110.

-VIX rose about 5% to 19.85.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.333% (compared to about this time prior market day).

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS

SPY – Added 12/1/2025.

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026

“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  

Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:

At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

 

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +13 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers

 

Today, Thursday, there was another Bearish Outside Reversal Day. We saw another one Tuesday.

The Bearish Outside Reversal signal remains in place until the S&P 500 closes above the high on the Reversal Day. 

“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.

 

The conflict/war in Iran continues to muddy the stock-market water. With the ceasefire extended by three weeks we may see more gains in the market – it’s anyone’s guess since the market is war-news driven. For now, indicators are slowly falling so I am cautious.

 

BOTTOM LINE

I am cautiously bullish.

 

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

                                              

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

   

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

 

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

 

LETTERS WSJ (WSJ)

“The calculus is simple in Democrats’ minds—President Trump and anyone or any nation aligned with him irrespective of geopolitical prerogatives is bad. Thus we find our most loyal ally in the fraught Middle East, Israel, a critically important combat and intelligence asset in the present war against the Islamist government in Iran, the subject of a Democratic fatwa against the supply of American arms.

These Democrats are aligning with an existential enemy of the Jewish state and their own government to try to gin up votes against Republicans, using the nascent antisemitic frenzy of their base to curry the vote. Such is the low state of a once proud political party.” - Paul Bloustein. WSJ letters at…

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-democrats-fatwa-on-u-s-arms-to-israel-ff291a0e?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos7

 

VIRGINIA VOTERS APPROVE GERRYMANDERING (CBS)

“Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a new congressional map that would give Democrats an advantage in 10 House districts, leaving just one safe Republican seat…”

Story at…

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/virginia-redistricting-results-gerrymandering/

My cmt: This is a clear case of Tyranny of the Majority. The majority, 51.5% of Virginia voters, will allow Democrats to redraw Congressional Districts. Currently, there are 6 Democrat and 5 Republican Districts, a fair distribution for our Democrat leading Commonwealth. After the Democrat Gerrymander, there will be only 1 Republican seat. This effectively takes away honest representation from nearly half the voters in Virginia. The stated reason is to counter Trump’s actions in other states. While I am no fan of Trump, watching a Virginia Democrat majority trample on the rights of millions of fellow Virginians is despicable.  

 

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY

-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 7138.

-VIX declined about 3% to 18.92.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.307% (compared to about this time prior market day).

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS

SPY – Added 12/1/2025.

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026

“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  

Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:

At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

 

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +14 to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers

 

The drop in the 10-day spread of Bulls minus Bears is a concern, but there is no reason to worry too much. We can watch and see where it goes.

 

The Bearish Outside Reversal signal from yesterday is canceled today since the S&P 500 closed above yesterday’s high.

 

I won’t chase this market, but as the war news gets better, I may get more comfortable with adding to stock positions. As a retiree, I am conservative. It is better not to lose than it is to worry about making every penny.

 

BOTTOM LINE

I am cautiously bullish. I don’t expect declines from here to be large, but it all depends on the news.

 

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

                                              

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

   

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

 

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

 

JUSTICE THOMAS - WSJ LETTER (WSJ)

“Justice Thomas’s remarks were brilliant and he raised numerous excellent points. But the most important of these points is that the Constitution was designed to protect us from “excessive democracy.” The Founders recognized that pure democracies were short-lived, volatile and prone to devolve into tyranny. We are a constitutional republic, and our present inability to recognize the differences between this and a democracy threatens to undermine the protections that the Founders set. We see this in attacks on the Electoral College, the filibuster and the structure of the Senate. Most ominous, however, are attacks on the Supreme Court from both left and right. The court is, at present, the only properly functioning branch of government and the last bulwark against attempts to undermine that brilliant document that is the Constitution.” - Jim Reardon

My cmt: Virginia is currently experimenting with “tyranny of the majority” in a Gerrymandering Constitutional Amendment. It asks voters to abandon a 6-year-old Constitutional Amendment that established a non-partisan redistricting procedure. In its place, Democrats request the power to turn the Commonwealth from 6 Democratic and 5 Republican held Congressional Districts to 10 Democrat and 1 Republican. The stated reason is to counter Donald Trump. In other words, thru fear and false promises, the majority (assuming the Amendment passes) will remove representation from millions of Virginians and provide representatives who will vote against the desires of the voters in those Republican leaning Districts. That’s “excessive democracy” in action where the majority screws the minority.  

 

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY

-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 7064.

-VIX rose about 3% to 19.50.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.299% (compared to about this time prior market day).

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS

SPY – Added 12/1/2025.

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026

“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  

Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:

At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

 

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +15 to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers

 

Today, Tuesday, was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.

The Bearish Outside Reversal signal remains in place until the S&P 500 closes above the high on the Reversal Day. 

“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.

 

I won’t chase this market, but as the war news gets better, I may get more comfortable with adding to stock positions. As a retiree, I am conservative. It is better not to lose than it is to worry about making every penny.

 

BOTTOM LINE

I am cautiously bullish. I don’t expect declines from here to be large, but it all depends on the news.

 

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

                                              

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.