Wednesday, March 18, 2026

FED Decision … PPI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
NEWSOM’S CLIMATE FALSE ALARMS (WSJ)
“Gavin Newsom is raising alarms on climate change again—and getting basic facts wrong. The California governor vows to sue the federal government over the Trump administration’s repeal of the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2009 “endangerment finding,” the main legal basis under the Clean Air Act for mandating reductions in carbon-dioxide emissions. Mr. Newsom claims the reversal will trigger “more deadly wildfires” and “more extreme heat deaths.”
 
Age-adjusted heat-related death risk in California has risen modestly in recent decades—enough to account for 90 additional annual deaths likely linked to higher temperatures. But he omits the other side: Warming has helped reduce age-adjusted cold-related deaths by more than 5,000 a year…
 
…Despite Mr. Newsom’s pronouncements, global warming isn’t the main driver of fires in North America. Poor planning puts more houses in extreme fire-risk zones. California’s surge in wildfires stems overwhelmingly from poor forest management: decades of fire suppression that built up fuels, with almost no prescribed burns…
 
Global fires are dramatically declining in extent, emissions, pollution death risk and intensity. Mr. Newsom’s rhetoric may energize his supporters, but Americans deserve evidence-based policies, not cherry-picked alarm.” - Bjorn Lomborg, President of the Copenhagen Consensus, Visiting Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Commentary at…
My cmt: Bjorn Lomberg isn’t a global warming denier. The earth is 1-degree centigrade warmer than it was 100 years ago. The problem is that the effects caused by the warming aren’t what many claim. Further, the fixes won’t fix anything. The article points out that even with huge reductions in CO2 emissions by the US and other developed nations, the earth’s future temperature would be reduced by less than 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit.
 
FED DECISION (CNBC)
“The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it is holding rates steady for the second time this year and projected one rate cut this year…’The implications of events in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain,’ Powell said. ‘In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy.’” Story at…
 
PPI (CNBC)
“The producer price index, a measure of pipeline costs that producers receive for their products, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.7% on the month…Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the so-called core PPI increased 0.5%...On a 12-month basis, headline PPI inflation was at 3.4%, the most since February 2025, while core was at 3.9%” Story at…
My cmt: Prices rose much higher than expected. 3.4%? Wow.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 1.4% to 6625.
-VIX rose about 12% to 25.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.265% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5.1%
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: 0.1%
Trading Days since top: 45. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -9 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations flattened out – a NEUTRAL indication.
 
Once again, investors were disappointed by the Fed’s failure to cut rates and the follow-on commentary.  That’s apparent from the chart; the S&P 500 collapsed after 2pm and didn’t recover as Fed Chair Powell gave his commentary.
 
“If my calculations are correct, when this baby hits eighty-eight miles per hour... you're gonna see some serious s**t.”  Where’s Doc Brown when you need him? Looks like it’s back to the future all over again. The Index has fallen to its 200-dMA. We don’t want to see the 200-day fail.
 
There were some technical bottom signs, but not enough t call a bottom here. RSI is oversold. Bollinger Bands are within a whisker of oversold.  I use these indicators together and they are very close to issuing a buy signal. As always, I don’t use any indicator or pair of indicators in isolation.  The better sign is the 50-indicator Bull/Bear Spread, but Indicators can be slow to turn. The best way to call a bottom is to see a lower-low on lower-volume with improved internals.
 
We should watch market action around the 200-day. It is an important support level and I may want to raise some more cash if the 200-dMA doesn’t hold. I tend to be more conservative now as a retiree, and “return-of-investment” is more important the “return-on-investment.”
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained NEUTRAL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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Tuesday, March 17, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“The head of the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) is expected to tell Congress on Tuesday that the agency needs to increase its borrowing capacity or face ‘the end of the Postal Service ​as we know it now.’” - Postmaster General David Steiner
My cmt: Sorry to tell you Dave, the postal service as we know it ended several years ago. I mailed seven bills on January 2. They were all “lost.” It’s not the first time. Now I pay electronically thru the bank.
 
Had a good laugh over this link:
Very funny. As if Trump could look any more stupid. Donald makes Forrest Gump look like a Rhodes Scholar.
 
NATIONAL DEBT WARNING (Fortune)
“The U.S. national debt is hurtling toward $39 trillion, but a Washington fiscal watchdog says the more alarming milestone isn’t a dollar figure—it’s a ratio. And it arrives in just five years…by fiscal year 2031, the average interest rate paid on the federal debt will exceed the country’s rate of economic growth. In the dry shorthand of economists, “R will exceed G.” In plain terms, that means that the cost of borrowing will be growing faster than the economy’s ability to pay for it.​”
My cmt: But don’t worry, our Politicians will give us more benefits and give us tax returns in worthless dollars as interest rates and inflation race ever higher. But don’t worry.
Obama was the last politician to even mention the national debt and he only mentioned it rather than actually doing anything other than cutting taxes. Yes, Obama cut taxes by extending the Trump cuts rather than letting them expire. How does that work? The U.S. is swimming in debt, but we can afford to cut revenues? And then there’s Trump. He never saw a tax he didn’t want to cut or eliminate. I think I’ve mentioned before that I despise politicians.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 6716.
-VIX declined about 5% to 22.37.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.202% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 3.8%
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: 1.6%
Trading Days since top: 44. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -15 to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher – a BULLISH indication.
 
The 10-dMA of the 50-indicator spread improved today.  That can signal a low for the market, but not always. We’ll have to see if it continues higher.
 
Repeating: The index is not far from its 200-dMA and we should watch market action around the 200-day. It is an important support level and I may want to raise some more cash if the 200-dMA doesn’t hold. I tend to be more conservative now as a retiree, and “return-of-investment” is more important the “return-on-investment.”
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to NEUTRAL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Monday, March 16, 2026

Gerrymandering Virginia … NY Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
SPANBERGER TELLS RURAL VIRGINIA TO DROP DEAD (Washington Examiner via Real Clear Politics)
“Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger has pursued a maximalist partisan agenda since being sworn into office. She is making housing, healthcare, and energy all more expensive. But nothing she has done so far is as insulting as the language her party attached to its ballot referendum to disenfranchise millions of rural Republican voters this April.
Six years ago, Virginia voters overwhelmingly passed a Constitutional Amendment creating a bipartisan Virginia Redistricting Commission. That commission drew a congressional map that was objectively fair. In 2024, when Vice President Kamala Harris won 52% of the vote to President Donald Trump’s 46%, the resulting congressional delegation was 55% Democratic (six seats) and 45% Republican (five seats).
 
Now Spanberger and her Democratic Party majorities in the Virginia House and Senate intend to change the commonwealth’s congressional map radically in a distinctly unrepresentative manner. By cramming as many rural Republican voters as possible into one western congressional district, and extending the reach of overwhelmingly Democratic suburban Washington, D.C. voters far into rural Virginia, Democrats have changed a fair and representative 6-5 congressional map into a lopsided and undemocratic 10-1 Democratic advantage…
 
…To add insult to injury, Spanberger and her Democratic allies have written the language that appears on the ballot in the most dishonest and partisan way possible. Instead of admitting that they want to throw out bipartisan maps and use partisan ones, the description on the ballot asks, “Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?” Story at a link from Real Clear Politics. This link will get access to the complete article…
My cmt: I despise most politicians because they are so dishonest – Republicans, and more often, especially Democrats. I know the Republicans are gerrymandering Texas; so what? Gerrymandering has been a way of life for most politicians, but this happening in Thomas Jefferson’s Commonwealth of Virginia - Disgraceful.
 
NY FED MANUFACTURING (WSJ via msn)
“Factory activity in New York state contracted in March as delivery times lengthened and supply availability worsened slightly. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday that its statewide manufacturing index of business conditions weakened unexpectedly in March to minus 0.2 from 7.1 in February.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 6632.
-VIX declined about 14% to 23.51.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.226% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 4%
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: 1.4%
Trading Days since top: 43. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
I suspect this correction is not over. We noticed reduced volume on Friday’s decline, but only a small improvement in internals.  This can sometimes signal a “correction over” since small declines give small signals.  My guess is, probably not. There’s just too much negative news now for the market weakness to be over.
 
6540 on the S&P 500 is a real possibility if the war in Iran drags on and oil prices remain high.
 
As we have noted before, there were signs at the top that suggested declines would be less than 10%. Since part of the decline is due to events in the middle east, that prediction may be wrong.
 
Repeating: The index is not far from its 200-dMA and we should watch market action around the 200-day. It is an important support level and I may want to raise some more cash if the 200-dMA doesn’t hold. I tend to be more conservative now as a retiree, and “return-of-investment” is more important the “return-on-investment.”
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Friday, March 13, 2026

Inflation … Durable Goods … Sentiment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
PCE INFLATION (Morningstar)
“The January Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index posted a softer-than-expected increase, up 2.8% from year-ago levels…When volatile food and energy costs are factored out, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation increased 3.1% from one year ago…” Story at…
 
DURABLE GOODS (ABA Banking Journal)
New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased $0.1 billion in January to $321.2 billion, virtually unchanged since the previous month…Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.5%.” Story at…
 
UNIV OF MICH SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment dipped about 2%, reaching its lowest reading of the year. Interviews completed prior to the military action in Iran showed an improvement in sentiment from last month, but lower readings seen during the nine days thereafter completely erased those initial gains.” Report at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 6632.
-VIX declined about 0.4% to 27.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.283% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5%
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: 0.4%
Days since top: 42. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)

 

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -16 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
As the S&P 500 declined from yesterday’s interim low, volume declined. This may suggest that the bottom of this decline is getting closer.  We can’t be too optimistic; there was very little improvement in internals. Indicators improved some too, but not enough to get excited. It might mean that the Index won’t test its prior low around 6540.
 
That 6540 level is a real possibility if the war in Iran drags on and oil prices remain high.
 
As we have noted before, there were signs at the top that suggested declines would be less than 10%. Since part of the decline is due to events in the middle east, that prediction may be wrong.
 
The 5% decline we have seen so far is a normal bull-market pullback that doesn’t even deserve the title “correction,” but it looks like markets may continue down into correction territory. The index is not far from its 200-dMA and we should watch market action around the 200-day. It is an important support level and I may want to raise some more cash if the 200-dMA doesn’t hold. I tend to be more conservative now, and “return-of-investment” is more important the “return-on-investment.”
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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Thursday, March 12, 2026

Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting labor market conditions remained stable even after the economy shed jobs in February, but the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran poses a downside risk…Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally ​adjusted 213,000 for the week ended March 7.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1.5% to 6673.
-VIX rose about 12% to 27.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.261% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 % drop from the Top: 4.4%
S&P 500 % Above 200-dMA: 1.1%
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -15 to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
The Bollinger Band indicator was oversold today.
“Bollinger Bands are a popular technical analysis tool consisting of a 20-period simple moving average (center line) and two outer bands representing volatility (+/-2 standard deviations).” Fidelity Investments.
 
I use Bollinger Bands with RSI. Since RSI is not oversold, I will ignore the Bollinger Band indicator. I don’t act on one indicator, further, markets can remain oversold for long periods.
 
The S&P 500 is only about 1% above its 200-dMA.  The 200-day presents a good test. We want to see the 200-day hold.  If the S&P 500 falls below the 200-day on consecutive days, it would be bad news.
 
As we have noted before, there were signs at the top that suggested declines would be less than 10%. Since part of the decline is due to events in the middle east, that prediction may be wrong.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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