Tuesday, March 17, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“The head of the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) is expected to tell Congress on Tuesday that the agency needs to increase its borrowing capacity or face ‘the end of the Postal Service ​as we know it now.’” - Postmaster General David Steiner
My cmt: Sorry to tell you Dave, the postal service as we know it ended several years ago. I mailed seven bills on January 2. They were all “lost.” It’s not the first time. Now I pay electronically thru the bank.
 
Had a good laugh over this link:
Very funny. As if Trump could look any more stupid. Donald makes Forrest Gump look like a Rhodes Scholar.
 
NATIONAL DEBT WARNING (Fortune)
“The U.S. national debt is hurtling toward $39 trillion, but a Washington fiscal watchdog says the more alarming milestone isn’t a dollar figure—it’s a ratio. And it arrives in just five years…by fiscal year 2031, the average interest rate paid on the federal debt will exceed the country’s rate of economic growth. In the dry shorthand of economists, “R will exceed G.” In plain terms, that means that the cost of borrowing will be growing faster than the economy’s ability to pay for it.​”
My cmt: But don’t worry, our Politicians will give us more benefits and give us tax returns in worthless dollars as interest rates and inflation race ever higher. But don’t worry.
Obama was the last politician to even mention the national debt and he only mentioned it rather than actually doing anything other than cutting taxes. Yes, Obama cut taxes by extending the Trump cuts rather than letting them expire. How does that work? The U.S. is swimming in debt, but we can afford to cut revenues? And then there’s Trump. He never saw a tax he didn’t want to cut or eliminate. I think I’ve mentioned before that I despise politicians.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 6716.
-VIX declined about 5% to 22.37.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.202% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 3.8%
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: 1.6%
Trading Days since top: 44. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -15 to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher – a BULLISH indication.
 
The 10-dMA of the 50-indicator spread improved today.  That can signal a low for the market, but not always. We’ll have to see if it continues higher.
 
Repeating: The index is not far from its 200-dMA and we should watch market action around the 200-day. It is an important support level and I may want to raise some more cash if the 200-dMA doesn’t hold. I tend to be more conservative now as a retiree, and “return-of-investment” is more important the “return-on-investment.”
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to NEUTRAL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Monday, March 16, 2026

Gerrymandering Virginia … NY Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
SPANBERGER TELLS RURAL VIRGINIA TO DROP DEAD (Washington Examiner via Real Clear Politics)
“Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger has pursued a maximalist partisan agenda since being sworn into office. She is making housing, healthcare, and energy all more expensive. But nothing she has done so far is as insulting as the language her party attached to its ballot referendum to disenfranchise millions of rural Republican voters this April.
Six years ago, Virginia voters overwhelmingly passed a Constitutional Amendment creating a bipartisan Virginia Redistricting Commission. That commission drew a congressional map that was objectively fair. In 2024, when Vice President Kamala Harris won 52% of the vote to President Donald Trump’s 46%, the resulting congressional delegation was 55% Democratic (six seats) and 45% Republican (five seats).
 
Now Spanberger and her Democratic Party majorities in the Virginia House and Senate intend to change the commonwealth’s congressional map radically in a distinctly unrepresentative manner. By cramming as many rural Republican voters as possible into one western congressional district, and extending the reach of overwhelmingly Democratic suburban Washington, D.C. voters far into rural Virginia, Democrats have changed a fair and representative 6-5 congressional map into a lopsided and undemocratic 10-1 Democratic advantage…
 
…To add insult to injury, Spanberger and her Democratic allies have written the language that appears on the ballot in the most dishonest and partisan way possible. Instead of admitting that they want to throw out bipartisan maps and use partisan ones, the description on the ballot asks, “Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?” Story at a link from Real Clear Politics. This link will get access to the complete article…
My cmt: I despise most politicians because they are so dishonest – Republicans, and more often, especially Democrats. I know the Republicans are gerrymandering Texas; so what? Gerrymandering has been a way of life for most politicians, but this happening in Thomas Jefferson’s Commonwealth of Virginia - Disgraceful.
 
NY FED MANUFACTURING (WSJ via msn)
“Factory activity in New York state contracted in March as delivery times lengthened and supply availability worsened slightly. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday that its statewide manufacturing index of business conditions weakened unexpectedly in March to minus 0.2 from 7.1 in February.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 6632.
-VIX declined about 14% to 23.51.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.226% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 4%
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: 1.4%
Trading Days since top: 43. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
I suspect this correction is not over. We noticed reduced volume on Friday’s decline, but only a small improvement in internals.  This can sometimes signal a “correction over” since small declines give small signals.  My guess is, probably not. There’s just too much negative news now for the market weakness to be over.
 
6540 on the S&P 500 is a real possibility if the war in Iran drags on and oil prices remain high.
 
As we have noted before, there were signs at the top that suggested declines would be less than 10%. Since part of the decline is due to events in the middle east, that prediction may be wrong.
 
Repeating: The index is not far from its 200-dMA and we should watch market action around the 200-day. It is an important support level and I may want to raise some more cash if the 200-dMA doesn’t hold. I tend to be more conservative now as a retiree, and “return-of-investment” is more important the “return-on-investment.”
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Friday, March 13, 2026

Inflation … Durable Goods … Sentiment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
PCE INFLATION (Morningstar)
“The January Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index posted a softer-than-expected increase, up 2.8% from year-ago levels…When volatile food and energy costs are factored out, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation increased 3.1% from one year ago…” Story at…
 
DURABLE GOODS (ABA Banking Journal)
New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased $0.1 billion in January to $321.2 billion, virtually unchanged since the previous month…Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.5%.” Story at…
 
UNIV OF MICH SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment dipped about 2%, reaching its lowest reading of the year. Interviews completed prior to the military action in Iran showed an improvement in sentiment from last month, but lower readings seen during the nine days thereafter completely erased those initial gains.” Report at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 6632.
-VIX declined about 0.4% to 27.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.283% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5%
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: 0.4%
Days since top: 42. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)

 

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -16 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
As the S&P 500 declined from yesterday’s interim low, volume declined. This may suggest that the bottom of this decline is getting closer.  We can’t be too optimistic; there was very little improvement in internals. Indicators improved some too, but not enough to get excited. It might mean that the Index won’t test its prior low around 6540.
 
That 6540 level is a real possibility if the war in Iran drags on and oil prices remain high.
 
As we have noted before, there were signs at the top that suggested declines would be less than 10%. Since part of the decline is due to events in the middle east, that prediction may be wrong.
 
The 5% decline we have seen so far is a normal bull-market pullback that doesn’t even deserve the title “correction,” but it looks like markets may continue down into correction territory. The index is not far from its 200-dMA and we should watch market action around the 200-day. It is an important support level and I may want to raise some more cash if the 200-dMA doesn’t hold. I tend to be more conservative now, and “return-of-investment” is more important the “return-on-investment.”
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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Thursday, March 12, 2026

Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting labor market conditions remained stable even after the economy shed jobs in February, but the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran poses a downside risk…Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally ​adjusted 213,000 for the week ended March 7.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1.5% to 6673.
-VIX rose about 12% to 27.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.261% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 % drop from the Top: 4.4%
S&P 500 % Above 200-dMA: 1.1%
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -15 to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
The Bollinger Band indicator was oversold today.
“Bollinger Bands are a popular technical analysis tool consisting of a 20-period simple moving average (center line) and two outer bands representing volatility (+/-2 standard deviations).” Fidelity Investments.
 
I use Bollinger Bands with RSI. Since RSI is not oversold, I will ignore the Bollinger Band indicator. I don’t act on one indicator, further, markets can remain oversold for long periods.
 
The S&P 500 is only about 1% above its 200-dMA.  The 200-day presents a good test. We want to see the 200-day hold.  If the S&P 500 falls below the 200-day on consecutive days, it would be bad news.
 
As we have noted before, there were signs at the top that suggested declines would be less than 10%. Since part of the decline is due to events in the middle east, that prediction may be wrong.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

CPI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JP MORGAN NOTE TO CLIENTS (The Street)
“JPMorgan expects the current episode of market stress to last days or weeks, not months. That framing matters because it shapes how investors should respond. Rather than positioning defensively for a prolonged downturn, the bank is telling clients to watch for oversold conditions and stretched positioning to clear. Once that happens, JPMorgan sees the selloff flipping into a buying opportunity.” Story at…
 
BEAR MARKET WARNING (Motley Fool)
“The February nonfarm payroll report came in way below expectations. The economy lost 92,000 jobs… That brings the total number of jobs created over the last 12 months to just 156,000. To put that into context, the economy was frequently creating that many jobs in a single month… Nonfarm payroll growth has been negative in five of the previous nine months. Since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began releasing this report back in 1939, this "5 in 9" stretch has happened only 13 times. When it happens, it tends to correlate highly with periods of economic stress, recession, and bear-market corrections of at least 20%...” Story at…  
 
CPI (CNBC)
“The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.4%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Wednesday. Both numbers matched the Dow Jones consensus forecast.
Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI posted a 0.2% monthly reading and 2.5% annual rate…” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6776.
-VIX declined about 3% to 24.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.228% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -16 to -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
The chart below is a simple indicator that gives us an idea of the health of the market. It counts the percentage of 15 ETF’s that are up over a 10-day period. Those ETFs were selected to represent a cross section of the market and they are the same ones that I track for momentum. When the % of ETFs advancing over 10-days falls below 45%, as it has in the chart below, it is a bearish indication.
 
 
It’s just another worrisome indication that the market is not healthy. That plus the bearish indications in other indicators continue to prevent me from adding to the stock portfolio. On the other hand, I haven’t gone to a bearish positioning in my portfolio because there are still some indicators that suggest markets are not headed into a bear-market. It could still happen, but I am not seeing the signs now.
 
As we have noted before, there were signs at the top that suggested declines would be less than 10%.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Existing Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (NAR)
“Existing-home sales increased by 1.7% month-over-month in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report…Affordability improved for the eighth consecutive month, according to NAR’s Housing Affordability Index—increasing to 117.6 in February from 117.1 in January and 103.1 a year ago. This marks the highest level since March 2022.” Report at…
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 6781.
-VIX fell about 2% to 24.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.156% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
There was no follow-thru from yesterday’s big reversal  Apparently investors remain worried about inflation and jobs.  Both recent data sets have been below expectations.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; the optimistic words coming from Trump that the war was close to conclusion are not borne out by U.S. actions – today was the biggest bombardment yet.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The image is a bar chart depicting the momentum percentile rank of various ETFs, with SPY, IWM DVY XLI, XLY, XLE, XLF, IBB, XLV, ITA, XLK, XLB, XLU, and IEFA SCHE being compared, showing their performance relative to each other. AI-generated content may be incorrect.
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

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