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Thursday, November 12, 2026

Jobless Claims … Existing Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

I’ll probably post Friday’s note later in the weekend. I may not have time Friday.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

DARK DAY FOR INVIDIA – HUANG OUSTED (CNBC)
“…Here’s what analysts and investors are saying about the company and the stock….
YORKVILLE IVES AND COMPANY
“We believe Nvidia’s value is $300 per share with Jensen as CEO and $225 per share without Jensen as CEO,” Ives added. ‘The stock will clearly be under pressure with this fluid news but the reality is its a dark day for Nvidia, but the company will navigate this turmoil and get through to the other side and remain a core foundational piece of the AI Revolution.’” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/12/jensen-huang-nvidia-affair-ceo.html
My cmt: There were a number of analyst notes in the article. They were mixed. I cut NVDA by 75% a month ago, but I still have a position. I plan to hold it. Could the news get any worse? Well, yes, but I’ll hold it anyway. The trailing PE is 22 the same as the S&P 500.

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“More Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week, but jobless claims remain at historically low levels, layoffs are rare and most workers enjoy unusual job security. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims ticked up to 200,000 last week…” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/jobs-unemployment-economy-layoffs-7a08c78cfc6af1aff2ac8652bd532336

EXISTING HOME SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“US existing home sales fell to the lowest level in more than 16 years in October as rising mortgage rates and still-elevated house prices ‌pushed potential buyers to the sidelines. Home sales dropped 5.5% last month…” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/us-existing-home-sales-slump-150246718.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7592.
-VIX rose about 7% to 17.49.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.125% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Reduced position 10/7/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026. Reduced 11/10/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -2 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, continued sharply down, a BEARISH sign.

A few of those Bear Signs:
-The McClellan Oscillator turned down today.
-The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE fell below 50% again.
-Up-volume is decelerating.
-Buying Pressure minus selling pressure continued down.
-The 10-day Fosback Hi/Low Logic Index is still bearish.
-New-highs are losing momentum.
-The Smart Money Indicator is bearish (late-day selling).
-The 5-10-20 Timer remains bearish.
-Utilities vs the S&P 500 is still bearish.

Where is the S&P 500?
          - 2.9% below its all-time high
          - 1% below its 50-dMA
          - 0.4% whisker below its 100-dMA
          - 3.5% above its 200-dMA

Chart wise: As previously noted, getting above the 100-dMA would be a good sign. If the S&P 500 could move decisively above its 50-dMA, that would give us the confidence to feel optimistic on the markets.

BOTTOM LINE
I‘m NEUTRAL, but cautious. It wouldn’t take much to turn me Bearish. Thursday’s sharp drop in indicators is usually a sign of further declines in the S&P 500.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, November 11, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

GOP TRUMP CRITIC WINS (NBC News)
“GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar has won re-election in her Miami-based congressional district, NBC News projects, after clashing with President Donald Trump over his immigration agenda.
Salazar drew national attention in September when she released an ad criticizing Trump’s aggressive deportation policy. She said that many Hispanics felt “betrayed” by the crackdown and that the administration’s tactics had “gone too far,” with many deportations targeting individuals without criminal records.” Story at…
GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar wins re-election in Florida after clashing with Trump

OUR COMPLEX TAX CODE (WSJ – LETTERS)
“Scott Artman’s “More Education for Tax Preparers Is Welcome” (Letters, Nov. 7) illustrates how absurd our federal tax code has become. When preparing a tax return requires continuing education just to keep up with the rules, the problem isn’t a lack of education among tax preparers. It’s an unnecessarily complicated tax code that ordinary Americans can’t understand. We need simplification, not more regulation.” - Phil Winter. Letters at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/americas-complex-tax-code-80cf3e82?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos13

IRAN DOESN’T THINK THE WAR IS OVER (WSJ)
“President Trump says the Iran war is “effectively over,” but has he told the Iranians? It doesn’t appear they’ve got the message. On Monday the U.S. evacuated several military aircraft from Mildenhall air base in the U.K., after an intelligence warning about a potential attack from Iranian agents… Iran clearly doesn’t believe it’s been defeated the way Mr. Trump says, and it doesn’t believe it will pay much of a price if its terrorism kills Americans in Europe. The U.K. hasn’t even mustered the resolve to expel Iran’s ambassador, and Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband recently met with his Iranian counterpart in a public diplomatic display. No wonder Iran thinks it can chase the U.S. out of Britain.” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/u-k-mildenhall-air-base-u-s-iran-threat-9140d544?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
My cmt: It seems unlikely that this war is ending anytime soon. One wonders how much war-risk remains for the stock market.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.3% to 7619.
-VIX declined about 10% to 17.49.
-Bond markets were closed Wednesday for Veterans Day.

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -3 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Where is the S&P 500?
          - 2.6% below its all-time high
          - 0.7% below its 50-dMA
          - A whisker below its 100-dMA
          - 3.9% above its 200-dMA

So, I trimmed stock holdings slightly yesterday. Once again, I am reminded I should follow my moto: “Trade what you see (indicators); not what you think.” But really, one should always be comfortable with risk and I am more comfortable with a 50-50 stock holding at this time.

As previously noted, getting above the 100-dMA would be a good sign. If the S&P 500 could move decisively above its 50-dMA, that would give us the confidence to feel optimistic on the markets.

BOTTOM LINE
I’ll remain NEUTRAL, but cautious.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, November 10, 2026

CPI … Business Optimism … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

AMERICA IS A COVENANT NOT A BATTLEFIELD (WSJ)
“If we choose to see each other as enemies to be destroyed rather than opponents to be debated, we put the entire American experiment at risk. The genius of the founding was to insulate the new nation from a Hobbesian state of nature. As Alexander Hamilton argued, the Constitution was a test of whether a government could be formed not by force and accident but by reason and deliberation. If we are to sustain the democratic project, we must understand America as a covenant, not as a killing ground.” - Jon Meacham, a Pulitzer-Prize winning biographer. Essay at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/jon-meacham-on-midterms-reagan-trump-fdr-americas-competitive-covenant-de7bf4e7

SOTOMAYOR WANTS PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY DECISION OVERTURNED (The Hill)
“Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor said on Saturday that she hopes the court's decision granting former presidents broad criminal immunity will be overturned, saying her colleagues have done some "crazy things … The justice specifically singled out the court's 6-3 decision along ideological lines that former presidents enjoy at least presumptive immunity for their official acts. At the time, the justice wrote that it made President Trump and his successors a "king above the law." … "No, seriously," she continued. "You know, I've spoken openly about this, there's some opinions that I hope in my lifetime will get overturned. The immunity case is one of them." – Story at…
Sotomayor says she hopes Supreme Court will overturn presidential immunity decision
My cmt: I hope so too. Biden should be prosecuted for negligent homicide for the botched Afghanistan departure. Not really, but my point is that ALL Presidents should be protected from prosecution for “official acts.” How could it be otherwise?

CPI (CBS News)
“Consumer prices rose more than economists expected in October on a monthly basis, offering little relief to Americans grappling with high living costs. The Consumer Price Index, which tracks changes in prices over time, rose at a monthly pace of 0.4%...” Story at…
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/october-cpi-report-elevated-inflation/

NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“There was little change in optimism among small businesses in October as owners navigated enduring challenges, though there were some encouraging developments,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Even with inflation pressures continuing to strain operations, more Main Street owners reported their businesses in good or excellent health, and actual sales improved. Looking ahead, continued strength in consumer spending will support economic growth, while persistent inflation, labor shortages, and policy risks will weigh on the small business outlook.” Report at...
https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-main-street-optimism-remains-steady-uncertainty-declines-in-october/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7521.
-VIX declined about 2.3% to 19.46.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.00% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -5 to -3 (3 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, reversed down, a BEARISH sign.

Where is the S&P 500?
          - 3.8% below its all-time high
          - 2% below its 50-dMA
          - 1.3% below its 100-dMA
          - 2.6% above its 200-dMA

I tweaked my stock position by trimming my position in XLK. This drops my stock holdings to 50% of the total portfolio. I consider this a conservative, retiree “fully invested” position. Indicators were a lot worse when I made the move, although it was not really in response to indicators. I just wanted to be a little more conservative until we see what is going on in the markets. As always, when the Iran conflict ends we are likely to see a big jump in the markets.

Repeating:
The 100-dMA is the next resistance point. Now, it’s resistance against gains and not support against declines. Getting above the 100-dMA would be a good sign. If the S&P 500 could move decisively above its 50-dMA, that would give us the confidence to feel optimistic on the markets.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain NEUTRAL, but cautious.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

SOLD SOME STOCKS

I cut stock holdings by trimming my XLK position. Nothing drastic - I am now 50% invested in stocks. That is still a fully invested position. This is caution rather than any specific signal.

Monday, November 9, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

MAGA COALITION DISINTEGRATES (WSJ – Excerpt, Saturday, 7 Nov)
“The Democrats are projected to win the 2026 national House vote by 13 points. One estimate has them winning 258 seats, their largest majority since 2008.
At this writing, Democrats have picked up seven Senate seats. They may pick up additional seats in Alaska and—this isn’t a misprint—Mississippi. Democrats flipped at least five governorships, in Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas. At least 12 state legislative chambers flipped from red to blue…
… Democrats outspent Republicans overall for the second straight election, according to OpenSecrets.org. Two of the Democrats’ favorite bogeymen—the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision and Elon Musk—couldn’t stop the party’s advance…
… Voters said Mr. Trump has the wrong priorities, puts his personal interest above the public interest, and made economic conditions worse. Economic growth and full employment mattered less than inflation and the corresponding decline in real wages…
… Mr. Trump began the finger-pointing on election night when he told the Journal that some Republican candidates “could have been better” and “had a lot of flaws.” He neglected to mention that his hand-selected candidates in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas went down in double-digit defeats. Nor did he name another of his picks, Darline Graham of South Carolina, who lost by 4 points…
… The socialist “Squad” of congressmen aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America is set to double in size. The much larger House Progressive Caucus—currently some 100 members—will grow even more. The line between socialism and progressivism is blurry: Rep. Ilhan Omar is a founding member of the Squad and deputy chairman of the Progressive Caucus.
… Thus conservatives who believe in the Constitution, limited government, the rule of law and the Declaration of Independence’s principles of liberty and equality confront a dire prospect: Nov. 3 may foreshadow a period of progressive governance in both parties that would leave Americans poorer, weaker and less free. It may turn out that the most prescient words of this election were uttered last month in New York City when Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told donors, “Because if you can win, if Abdul can win in Michigan, anybody can win anywhere. Anywhere.”
We are about to find out if she’s right.” - Mathew Continetti for WSJ Opinion’s Free Expression. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-maga-coalition-disintegrates-4179a2be

WSJ LETTERS (WSJ)
“Jason L. Riley’s column “The Beginning of Trump’s Long Goodbye” (Upward Mobility, Nov. 4) overlooks a critical factor in the Republican defeat: the party’s failure to communicate a positive, persuasive message.
Having worked in advertising and marketing, I watched the Republican campaign with disbelief. Successful marketing demonstrates benefits, establishes credibility and gives audiences reasons to believe. Instead, Republican messaging relied heavily on hostility, accusations and personal attacks.
In a May interview with Politico, Republican strategist James Blair laid out the game plan: “Attack, attack, attack. And when in doubt, attack some more… The best defense is a great offense.” I would have rejected that strategy outright.
Where were the messages demonstrating how Republican policies improved Americans’ everyday lives? Where were the accomplishments voters could recognize and appreciate? Political persuasion is earned through credibility and demonstrated value, not resentment.
Republicans had extraordinary financial resources. What they lacked was a compelling, positive message. - Lyn Stanley. WSJ Letters at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-factors-behind-the-great-republican-rout-3d15819c?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos7
My cmt: I couldn’t agree more. As the chart below shows, most of the current high prices are from the Biden administration. At the current 3.7% (including food and energy) prices double every 19.5-years. At the 9% inflation peak under Biden, prices double every 8-years.

The Republicans sat back and let the Democrats pummel them with claims of a bad economy and unaffordability, but the unemployment rate is near historic lows; GDP showed a solid 3.5% increase in the third quarter; and unaffordability was, in large part, a holdover from the Biden Administration. This was campaign incompetence and stupidity by Republicans. Of course, Trump is so unpopular, it is likely that no amount of marketing could have saved them.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 2.4% to 7550.
-VIX declined about 22% to 19.92.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.884% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -10 to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, moved higher, a BULLISH sign.

Where is the S&P 500?
          - 3.4% below its all-time high
          - 1.6% below its 50-dMA
          - 0.9% below its 100-dMA
          - 3% above its 200-dMA

The 100-dMA is the next resistance point. Now, it’s resistance against gains and not support against declines. Getting above the 100-dMA would be a good sign. If the S&P 500 could move decisively above its 50-dMA, that would give us the confidence to feel optimistic on the markets.

The market trend is clearly down as the S&P 500 curve shows in the above “Summary of 50-Indicator Spread” chart; however, indicators are trending higher. The issue is that good moves in the indicators have not translated into a sustained move higher by the Index, at least recently. I am a little cautious on this market. Breadth has improved, but not to the point that I would consider normal for a bullish condition.

I have not made any changes to the portfolio recently.

BOTTOM LINE
I’ll upgrade to a NEUTRAL, but cautious position on the market. I am still fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, November 6, 2026

Payrolls … Unemployment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
Where is the S&P 500?
          - 5.7% below its all-time high
          - 3.9% below its 50-dMA
          - 3.2% below its 100-dMA
          - 0.7% above its 200-dMA

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -10 (10 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, was flat, a NEUTRAL sign. (The 10-day has been bouncing back and forth so it’s hard to place too much faith in it.)

I didn’t make any changes to the portfolio; the day was very busy. I may reduce some stocks Monday.

BOTTOM LINE
Same as Thursday: I’m Bearish and inclined to ere on the side of caution and cut some stock holdings. I’ll try and post Monday if I make changes to the portfolio. It is likely to be late in the day.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, November 5, 2026

Jobless Claims … Productivity … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT

Today was down all day.

Where is the S&P 500?
          - 5.9% below its all-time high
          - 4.3% below its 50-dMA
          - 3.5% below its 100-dMA
          - 0.4% above its 200-dMA

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +4 to -10 (10 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, reversed lower, a BEARISH sign. (The 10-day has been bouncing back and forth so it’s hard to place too much faith in it.)

Is this the end of the Bull market? It could be, but it doesn’t fit the classic stock market wisdom:
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." — Sir John Templeton

We haven’t been in euphoria at all this year. Another cause for an end of a bull market is recession, but there is currently no sign of recession. That’s not a great sign though. Similar statements were made in 2007 when the recession had already begun. Recessions are officially determined by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) so start dates are usually determined after-the-fact.

Statements by Democrats have been generally opposed to AI. Partly due to their opposition, the AI trade is getting crushed. The iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (BAI) was down 11% Thursday. Nvidia is down almost 25% in just a month. Overall, my indicators aren’t that bad, but there are some reliable signs that are scary.

The 10-dEMA Hi/Lo Logic Index was bearish Thursday. In addition, the Short-Term (5-day) Hi/Lo Logic Index was “very bearish” according to Fosback’s original description of the 5-day indicator. The 10-day version of this indicator called the Covid-19 Bear Market high to the day.

Breadth has weakened again.

My Panic Indicator flashed. This one is hard to interpret, because it can be either a buy-signal or a sell-signal. It’s a buy signal at a bottom and a sell signal at a top. Where are we this time? Well, the market was close to a top, but markets have been in a sideways correction since early August so one can make an argument markets are near a bottom. I’ll put this indicator in the bear camp – the S&P 500 was only 1.5% below its all-time high yesterday (Wednesday).

There were a few signs of a bottom.
The 7-Day VIX ROC (rate of change) was 61%: According to Tom McClellan "...any reading above around +20% is a pretty good sign of an oversold bottom for stock prices, one that is worthy of a bounce...” This one is not in my 50-indicator ensemble, because I have never back-tested it to check its accuracy.

Bollinger Bands are overbought, but RSI is not confirming a bottom and I use these indicators together.

As I’ve written before, in my experience, when leaders fail, markets fail.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Bearish and inclined to ere on the side of caution and cut some stock holdings. I’ll try and post tomorrow if I make changes to the portfolio. It is likely to be late in the day.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)