… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
KEEP CAMERAS OUT OF THE SUPREME COURT (WSJ)
“The Senate Judiciary Committee unanimously advanced legislation last week that would require TV cameras in Supreme Court proceedings. When the legislation comes to a full vote, Senators should preserve judicial independence and safeguard public trust by keeping cameras out. Senators know all too well the jackassery that TikTokification encourages in the legislative branch. They shouldn’t turn the Supreme Court into a sister circus.” - Ben Sasse, Columnist, Free Expression, The Wall Street Journal. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/ben-sasse
 
DEMOCRATS SAY NO TO THE MILITARY (WSJ)
“The Trump Administration is asking Congress to refill U.S. military missile stocks after the war in Iran. Yet Democrats are saying no way, and they sound like JD Vance opposing aid for Ukraine when Joe Biden was President. Their argument is no better than Sen. Vance’s.” … “Democrats will not support tens of billions of dollars for Trump’s aimless war,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro, the top Democratic appropriator. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, eyes fixed on Tuesday’s progressive victories in New York primaries, added that “we should be lowering costs for the American people, not writing another blank check for Trump.” …Democrats can’t bring themselves to criticize Mr. Trump from the hawkish right, though it might help them win back voters who think the party is weak on national security. Apparently they’d rather settle for making the futile gesture of a nonbinding war powers resolution and winking at the Democratic Socialists of America.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/democrats-defense-funding-congress-pentagon-trump-administration-d86fc605?mod=opinion_lead_pos3
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.05% at 7354.
-VIX declined about 3% to 18.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.376% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is also important.
 
Basic internals were good today. Advancing issues were nearly twice declining issues; up-volume was more than twice down-volume; and new-52-week highs were well ahead of new, 52-week lows. That would normally produce positive results for the Indices, but that wasn’t the case today. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were all down.
 
Volume was very high today (Friday).  The FTSE Russell re-balanced their various Indices. Thus, all of the ETFs following the Russell Indices must adjust their portfolios.  Artificial high-volume days like today cause a lot of churn, but often don’t tell us much about what’s really going on. Since there was little change in indicators, that’s where I am today, still waiting for a definite break one way or the other.
 
The S&P 500 closed 0.1% below its 50-dMA. That isn’t much, but if it stays there on Monday that might suggest a trend-break down.
 
The McClellan Oscillator improved again reflecting the positive breadth I mentioned above.
 
I am still waiting to see if price action will follow the indicators higher.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.                                                                                                 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Durable Goods … National Activity Index … GDP … PCE Inflation … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

REFLECTING POOL VANDALIZED (The Guardian)
“…the president blamed the pool’s woes on “vandals”, who he claimed had taken “some form of knife or blade” and delivered a 250ft gash into the pool’s facade. By Monday, when Trump was still posting about the site, this alleged damage had grown into a “300 foot long gash”.” Story at…
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/22/what-happened-dc-reflecting-pool-vandalism-arrest-algae
 
TRUMP DROVE HIS MOTORCADE THRU THE REFLECTING POOL??!!!
This couldn’t be true, could it?
“Yes, the claim is true. In early May 2026, President Donald Trump's motorcade was driven through the drained and freshly painted Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. The administration and several news outlets confirmed that the heavy SUVs drove directly across the "American flag blue" sealant so he could inspect the project.” See Snopes at…
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-motorcade-reflecting-pool/
My cmt: So, Trump vandalized the project. Unbelievable!
 
YEAR END FORECAST (Moneywise)
“Financial firms such as Oppenheimer (1), Citigroup (2) and Goldman Sachs (3) have been raising their S&P 500 value predictions for 2026. Now one firm's optimism has topped them all. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, announced his 2026 S&P 500 forecast on Sunday: 8,250.” Story at… 
Ed Yardeni just hiked his year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to the highest of any Wall Street forecaster. Why he says we're in the 'Roaring 2020s'
My cmt: That’s 12% higher than Wednesday’s close.
 
DURABLE GOODS (FxStreet)
“Durable Goods Orders in the United States (US) declined by 4.5%, or $15.6 billion, in May to $332.1 billion, the US Census Bureau reported on Thursday. This reading followed the 8.5% increase recorded in April and came in line with the market expectation.” Story at…
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-durable-goods-orders-decline-45-in-may-as-expected-202606251239
 
NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.10 in May from +0.19 in April.”

Charts and commentary at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/06/25/cfnai-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-economic-growth-may-2026
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits in the week ending June 20 fell by 12,000 to 215,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. “ Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-6c38e6c91415403252f242c42cdfbc3e
 
GDP – FINAL (Reuters)
“The ⁠findings buttress recent economic data showing that the war did little apparent damage to the U.S. economic outlook, with job growth accelerating in recent months and consumption relatively unscathed… The U.S. economy grew at about a 1.6% annual rate ​over the first three months of the year.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-shock-nicked-us-gdp-resilience-was-message-dallas-fed-research-finds-2026-06-23/
 
PCE PRICES (NBC News)
“The personal consumption expenditures index rose to 4.1% on a yearly basis, the highest reading since April 2023. Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, so-called core PCE measured 3.4%, the highest reading since October 2023.” Story at…
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/may-inflation-report-interest-rates-oil-rcna351636
My cmt: These numbers exceed Fed targets for its favorite inflation measures.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 was little changed at 7357.
-VIX rose about 1% to 18.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.396% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -5 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations turned higher, a BULLISH sign that is also important.
 
The S&P 500 closed on the 50-dMA. The 50-dMA is important because it often represents the lower trend line.
 
Breadth indicators are still mostly ok. The most worrisome bearish indicator is the Fosback Hi/Low Logic Index. It warns when both new-highs and new-lows are elevated. It called the start of the Pandemic Bear Market to the day. The McClellan Oscillator has turned positive. That has negated the Hindenburg Omen and if it continues to improve will probably lead to a cancelation of the Fosback indicator too. The Hindenburg Omen uses analysis similar to the Fosback Indicator.
 
Note that today’s indicators have improved significantly compared to the 10 June low, so perhaps that divergence will portend good news for the markets. – STILL WAITING FOR THE GOOD NEWS ON PRICE ACTION, but we do note that indicators continue to improve.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.                                                                                                 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

New Home Sales … S&P 500 Global Manufacturing PMI …. S&P 500 Global Services PMI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
“…as I’ve long argued, our [journalism] industry’s recovery of self-respect must begin with divorcing ourselves from a certain digital-age audience—the audience that doesn’t care whether a claim is true or false, only whether it meets an emotional need…In the age of online propaganda and artificial intelligence, the country urgently needs a place it can turn to for truth. This is a mission that a redeemed mainstream news business can give itself: Make America strong-minded again.” - Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., Opinion Columnist, Business World, The Wall Street Journal. From…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/scott-pelley-delivers-for-the-ellisons-trump-and-cbs-b7d5c80c
 
NEW HOME SALES (Reuters)
“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly fell in May, weighed down by higher mortgage rates and prices, dampening hopes for a housing recovery this year after prolonged weakness…New home sales dropped 7.3% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 580,000 units last month, the lowest level ​since January…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-new-home-sales-unexpectedly-fall-may-2026-06-24/
 
S&P GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI (Reuters)
“U.S. manufacturing activity rose again in June as companies ​preemptively placed new orders in anticipation of shortages and higher prices, but factory employment hit a six-year low, blamed on rising operating costs related to ‌the Middle East conflict.
S&P Global said its flash manufacturing PMI increased to 55.7 this month, the highest reading since May 2022…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-manufacturing-rises-front-loading-orders-factory-employment-tumbles-six-year-2026-06-23/
 
S&P GLOBAL SERVICES PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global inched down 0.3 points to 50.7, indicating slower expansion in the services sector. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 50.9 and was among the weakest months of expansion in the past 2.5 years.” Commentary at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/06/03/sp-global-services-pmi-may-2026
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 7358.
-VIX declined about 4% to 18.63. (The Options Boys don’t seem too worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.398% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Today was somewhat odd. The S&P 50 was down slightly, but advancing issues outpaced decliners; new-highs were ahead of new-lows. The negative was on the volume side: declining-volume outpaced advancing-volume. We’re left with indicators that improved slightly.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -6 to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations is essentially flat, also a NEUTRAL sign that is also important.
 
Note that today’s indicators have improved significantly compared to the 10 June low, so perhaps that divergence will portend good news for the markets.
 
The S&P 500 is only 0.1% above the 50-dMA. As previously noted, since the 50-dMA has not been significantly broken, we can’t be too concerned about the recent weakness. So far, it looks perfectly normal and not a sign that more trouble is certain. I’ll get more concerned if the 50-day does not hold.
 
Breadth indicators are mostly ok, so for now, we’ll have to wait for more information. An important piece of information would be if the Index drops below its 50-day.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.                                                                                                 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Richmond FED … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
CONGRESS GETS A SAY ON IRAN DEAL (WSJ- excerpt)
“All presidents long for the big foreign-policy win. The cameras, the signing ceremony and, not least, the knowledge that they have shaped history. After a war, when markets are looking for calm and the public for reassurance, a president might be tempted to move things along without consulting Congress.
In the case of President Trump’s prospective deal with Iran, that would be unlawful and unconstitutional. It would violate the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 (Inara), which was enacted while the Obama administration was negotiating its Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Inara requires congressional review for any agreement related to Iran’s nuclear program before sanctions relief can move forward. More generally, the president can’t use diplomacy to nullify sanctions Congress enacted or disregard the limits Congress placed on his power to waive them.” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/not-so-fastcongress-gets-a-say-on-the-iran-deal-05cb1696
My cmt: Trump has never been one to follow the Constitution. Unfortunately, this is not new. In addition to the law cited above, the Senate’s “advice and consent” role on Treaties has been bypassed regularly, but especially by Trump and Obama.
“A treaty is a formal, legally binding written agreement between sovereign states or international organizations. It functions like a contract under international law, used to establish alliances, regulate commerce, resolve disputes, or protect human rights.”
So, to avoid the Senate, our leaders call them “agreements”, “accords” (think climate accords) or now “MOUs” - anything but what they are – treaties.
 
MAJOR STOCK MARKET SHOCK POSSIBLE (Moneywise)
“Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan warned that Wall Street may be underestimating the risk of a major "out of the box" economic shock, suggesting a 30% to 35% probability of a significant disruption despite current market highs. "Everything we see in front of us is actually quite strong," Rowan said. But there is "a much greater chance, in our opinion, of out-of-sideline results."… In response, the firm is positioning defensively by upgrading credit quality and building cash reserves…"Combine bonds, gold, infrastructure, real estate and hedge strategies so at least one protector is working in every market scenario."
That way, when there's volatility somewhere in the market, you might not feel the contagions quite as badly in your portfolio.” Story at…
Apollo CEO Marc Rowan says there’s now a 35% chance of a major market shock — and his firm is piling up $40B cash. How investors can prepare
 
RICHMOND FED (City Biz)
“The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond reported Tuesday that its manufacturing index declined to 4 in June, falling short of economists’ expectations of 8 and down from 13 in May…All three major components of the survey — shipments, new orders and employment — moved lower during the month, signaling softer manufacturing conditions across the Fifth Federal Reserve District.” Story at…
https://www.citybiz.co/article/864351/richmond-fed-manufacturing-index-falls-more-than-expected-in-june/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 1.4% to 7365.
-VIX rose about 10% to 19.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.499% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -1 to -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a slightly BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed lower, a BEARISH sign that is also important.
 
The S&P 500 fell to 0.6% above the 50-dMA and appears to be in the vicinity of its lower trendline. In the chart above it looks like the Index is on its lower trendline or slightly lower. It is important to note that trendlines are subjective and depend on the scales chosen when drawing the chart. For that reason, the 50-dMA is more reliable than a trendline. Since the 50-dMA has not been significantly broken, we can’t be too concerned about the recent weakness. So far, it looks perfectly normal and not a sign that more trouble is certain.
 
Breadth indicators are mostly ok, so for now, we’ll have to wait for more information. An important piece of information would be if the Index drops below its 50-day.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.                                                                                                 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
IRAN AND TRUMP BLAME ISRAEL FIRST (WSJ-excerpt)
“Tehran claims the U.S. is obliged to stop Israel from bombing Hezbollah, even as Hezbollah continues to kill Israeli soldiers and fire rockets and drones at civilians in northern Israel. Fighting calmed down on Sunday as Israel asked its military to reduce combat operations. Iran insists the MOU requires that Mr. Trump treat Israel like an American proxy, though Israel is a sovereign democracy with a duty to its citizens to stop foreign bombardment.
Perhaps Iran got this idea from listening to Mr. Trump and his Vice President. “Israel is fighting Hezbollah too long,” Mr. Trump said last week, while declaring that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has no f— judgment” in how he responds to Hezbollah’s attacks.
JD Vance was even more threatening. “The Israelis—just like everybody else—have to respect this peace process that is fundamentally good for them and good for the entire region,” he said on Thursday…
…Within hours of Mr. Vance’s blunt message to Israel on Thursday, Hezbollah killed four Israeli troops. This guaranteed a retaliation, which Tehran then took as a pretext to postpone talks and threaten the Strait…
…Mr. Trump came into office with a chance to restore American deterrence after the feckless Biden years. But he increasingly finds himself attacking allies while apologizing for adversaries.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-and-trump-blame-israel-first-a122a0d7
 
BUFFETT INDICATOR WARNS OF POSSIBLE TROUBLE (Motley Fool)
“During the lead-up to the bursting of the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s, Buffett predicted that stocks were overvalued and would soon plunge into a bear market.
Now nicknamed the Buffett indicator, the metric behind his prediction measures the ratio between the total value of U.S. stocks and U.S. gross domestic product (GDP)… "If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you," Buffett explained in a 2001 interview with Fortune magazine. "If the ratio approaches 200% -- as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 -- you are playing with fire." As of this writing, it sits at around 233%.” Commentary at… 
Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator just hit a dangerous record. Here's what history says happens next.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7473.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.40.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.503% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), still a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
The S&P 500 is 2% above the 50-dMA and appears to be in the vicinity of, though higher than its lower trendline.
 
Good to see the 10-day spread improve. Now let’s see if we can see consecutive days with the spread rising. That would probably lead me to take a more positive view of the markets.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I have to be neutral now, but I am still expecting indicators to turn bullish soon.                                                                                                 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
 

Jobless Claims … Philly Fed … Leading Economic Indicators … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 

“Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger has officially signed a bill that would award the state's 13 electoral votes to whoever wins the national popular vote — regardless of how Virginians actually vote.
The legislation, part of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, passed mostly along party lines with Democrat votes. It requires 270 electoral votes from participating states to take effect.
Once activated, your individual vote in Virginia (and other compact states) would be overridden by the nationwide popular vote total.
This is a radical attempt to bypass the Electoral College and diminish the power of individual states.” – David J Harris Jr., from a Facebook post.
 
ELECTORAL COLLEGE BENEFITS (Heritage Foundation)
“The Electoral College prevents presidential candidates from winning an election by focusing solely on high-population urban centers and dense media markets, forcing them to seek the support of a larger cross-section of the American electorate. This addresses the Founders’ fears of a “tyranny of the majority,” which has the potential to marginalize sizeable portions of the population, particularly in rural and more remote areas of the country.
Large cities like New York City and Los Angeles should not get to unilaterally dictate policies that affect more rural states, like North Dakota and Indiana, which have very different needs. These states may be smaller, but their values still matter—they should have a say in who becomes President…While no system can completely eliminate the risk of individuals trying to cheat the system, the Electoral College minimizes the incentives for voter fraud because the system isolates the impact of stolen votes. Under the current system, stolen votes only affect the outcome of one state rather than the national outcome. This is because fraudulent votes may win the state, securing the electoral votes, but it would make no difference for the candidate to win that state with 100 stolen votes or 100,000 since the candidate would secure the same electoral votes regardless.⁵ Under a national popular vote system, though, votes stolen in one state would have an impact beyond that state’s border, since those illegitimate votes would be added to the national vote total.” – Commentary from…
https://www.heritage.org/the-essential-electoral-college/the-benefits
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Fast Company)
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits in the week ending June 13 dropped by 4,000 to 226,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.” Story at…
https://www.fastcompany.com/91561858/u-s-jobless-claims-drop-226000-unemployment-rate-stays-historically-low-4-3
 
PHILLY FED INDEX (rttNews)
“The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity shot up to a positive 10.3 in June from a negative 0.4 in May, with a positive reading indicating growth.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3661267/philly-fed-index-jumps-back-into-positive-territory-in-june.aspx
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Conference Board)
"The Leading Index for the US increased slightly in May, fueled entirely by positive contributions from financial components, especially stock prices and the interest rate spread," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "On the non-financial side of the LEI, only ISM® New Orders Index showed some strength, with consumer expectations remaining a major drag. Despite two consecutive monthly increases, the LEI's six- and twelve-month growth rates were still negative, suggesting slower economic expansion ahead…The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.8% y/y GDP growth in 2026, down from 2.1% in 2025." Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-rose-for-the-second-consecutive-month-in-may-302804403.html
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 7501.
-VIX declined about 11% to 16.40.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.457% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -2 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), still a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
Neutral can be good.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I have to be neutral now, but I am still expecting indicators to turn bullish soon.                                                                                                 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.