Friday, March 6, 2026

Payroll Report … Retail Sales / Unemployment Rate … Fed Beige Book … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
FED BEIGE BOOK (WSJ)
The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book report indicates a steady economy with persistent inflation, a stable labor market, and policy uncertainty.” Story at…
 
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (CNBC)
“The U.S. economy lost jobs in February, a month marred by severe winter weather and a strike at a major health-care provider… Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 for the month, compared with the estimate for 50,000…February marked the third time in the past five months that payrolls declined…the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%” Story at…
 
RETAIL SALES (AP News)
“American consumers pulled back their spending to start 2026, extending the malaise in retail sales that began late last year.
Retail sales fell 0.2% in January, following a flat reading in December…Excluding business at gas stations and auto dealers, retail sales rose 0.3% in January…” Story at…
 
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.3% to 6740.
-VIX rose about 24% to 29.49.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was unchanged at 4.138% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 21 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -17 (17 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication. Danger Will Robinson.
 
The markets fell below another level of support today (6800).
 
We picked up another bull indicator today (Bollinger Bands) so now we have a total of four. The Bollinger Band indicator is oversold, but RSI is not, so I’ll ignore this indicator. I use Bollinger Bands and RSI together. Even if RSI was confirming Bollinger Bands, I wouldn’t be buying on two indicators. We need to see volumes falling as the market falls since that would suggest selling may be winding down. One sign we sometimes see at bottoms is a big move down that triggers my Panic Indicator. It is based on a statistical analysis of market moves. So far, we haven’t seen any bottom signs other than Bollinger Bands. They can signal well before a bottom.
 
There were signs at the top back in January that a correction, if it occurred, would be 10% or less. Earnings have been good and that supports the “small-correction” thesis, but there are no guarantees.
 
As of Friday, the S&P 500 is only 3.4% below its all-time high. No panic yet although there isn’t much room for optimism.
 
The 200-dMA of the S&P 500 is 6582, about 2.5% below today’s close.  Another level of support is 6539, the 20 November low. My guess is that the S&P 500 will drop to its 200-dMA around the 6550-6570 level. It could certainly go lower and a retest of the November low wouldn’t be a surprise. The April 2025 low is around 5000; let’s hope we don’t go there.
 
Some of the weakness is now due to the news (war). Thus, we could have a sudden reversal higher if there is good news. Conversely, if hostilities go on much longer or there is bad news in the progress of those hostilities, markets could easily drop below the 200-dMA.  It seems like a correction of only 5.9% (3.4% so far +2.5% down to the 200-day) is too small given the unknowns and the rapid rise in oil prices we have seen so far.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; I am not expecting a crash, but it’s a worry. Let’s check Monday. It may be time to get more conservative in the portfolio.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Thursday, March 5, 2026

Productivity … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
 
May be an image of text that says 'NEWS In Western Hemisphere news, security forces of a peace-loving democracy invaded a neighbouring country and arrested its corrupt dictatorial leader. LET GO OF ME! THIS IS A TOTAL WITCH HUNT! Come along, eh! NOR 1)'
From “Bansky Art Fans” on Facebook.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE SENTIMENT EXTREME (McClellan Financial Publications)
“Recent data from the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of investment advisors and newsletter writers showed a very high bull-bear spread.  That spread is simply the numerical difference between the percentage of respondents classified as bullish versus those who are bearish.  High readings show extreme confidence, which every card-carrying contrarian knows is a sign of a top for stock prices.” – Tom McClellan. Analysis at…
My cmt: Tom cautions investors about following one indictor as I do regularly.
 
PRODUCTIVITY (LA Times)
“Labor productivity rose in the fourth quarter by more than forecast after the strongest advance in five years… Productivity, or nonfarm employee output per hour, increased at a 2.8% annualized rate…In the third quarter, productivity growth was revised up to a 5.2% pace.” Story at…
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week was unchanged from the week before, a sign that layoffs remain at historically low levels. U.S. filings for jobless aid for the week ending Feb. 28 matched the previous week’s 213,000…” Story at…
 
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 6831.
-VIX rose about 10% to 23.75.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.138% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -17 (17 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication. I have a really bad feeling about this.
 
There are now only 3 bull-indicators.  That’s a concern, but the 3 remaining indicators are important. Two of them are breadth indicators that suggest perhaps the market isn’t yet bad enough to be a “Sell.” The third compares cyclical industrials to the S&P 500. The cyclicals are still outperforming the S&P 500 suggesting that investors don’t expect a recession. If all three turn bearish, I will probably be a seller.
 
There were signs at the top back in January that a correction, if it occurred, would be 10% or less. That may be, but if there are no bull indicators, I’ll still most likely be a seller.
 
The close today for the S&P 500 was about 0.1% below its 100-dMA. If the Index is down again, it is another bearish sign although not one of my 50-indicators.
 
Some support levels are: S&P 500 6800, the level of recent lows.  The 200-dMA of the S&P 500 is 6574, about 4.5% below today’s close.  Another level of support is 6550, the 19 November low. My guess is that the S&P 500 will drop to its 200-dMA around the 6550-6570 level. It could certainly go lower. The 200-day is just a guess.
 
As noted previously, it seems like markets are doing terribly, but the S&P 500 is only 2.1% below its all-time high. The problem is that it is no higher than it was at the end of November.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; I am not expecting a crash but it’s a worry. I’ll hold my current stock positions unless indicators suggest otherwise.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Wednesday, March 4, 2026

ADP Employment … ISM Non-Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
HERITAGE CAPITAL BLOG
“… after 38 years in the business, I have seen my fair share of military actions. The most obvious reaction is usually obviously wrong. People scramble to buy oil, sell stocks, buy gold, buy bonds and buy the dollar. My inclination is to pause and either do nothing or do the opposite. Whatever the media harps on the most, I tend to go opposite.” - Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital. Blog at…
 
BANK OF AMERICA SAYS AI WON’T DESTROY THE ECONOMY (The Street)
“BofA’s economists believe the current AI panic misrepresents how economies evolve….History shows us that mechanized agriculture displaced millions of farm jobs, constricting that sector to just 40% of U.S. employment in the early 1900s to about 1% today. Nevertheless, the overall GDP grew at a remarkable pace as new industries surfaced.
In fact, BofA argues that AI will help deliver meaningful productivity gains, functioning more like a supply shock… What’s interesting is that despite all the talk about technological disruption, the recent labor-market softness isn’t clearly AI-driven.” Story at…
 
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP via PR NewsWire)
"We've seen an increase in hiring and pay gains remain solid, especially for job-stayers," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "But with hiring concentrated in only a few sectors, our data shows no widespread pay benefit from changing jobs. In fact, the pay premium for switching…
Private employers added 63,000 jobs in February. Hiring jumped in February, delivering the best showing for job gains since July 2025. Construction and education and health services led the growth.” Press release at…
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“The services sector is heating up, with the Business Activity, New Orders, and New Export Orders indexes at their highest levels since 2024, and the Backlog of Orders Index with its best reading since July 2022 (58.3 percent).” Report at… 
 
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6870.
-VIX declined about 10% to 21.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.094% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -12 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
“When missiles fly, it’s time to buy” or so some pundits claim. I think that’s a little too pat.  Markets have been weak for several months. It’s hard to say that markets will shrug off weakness because there’s a war going on. Today’s move was on low volume. I’m still cautious.
 
Some support levels are: The 100-dMA is 6835; S&P 500 6800, the level of recent lows.  The 200-dMA of the S&P 500 is 6574, about 4.5% below today’s close.  Another level of support is 6550, the 19 November low. My guess is that the S&P 500 will drop to its 200-dMA around the 6550-6570 level.
 
As noted yesterday, it seems like markets are doing terribly, but the S&P 500 is only 1.6% below its all-time high. The problem is that it is no higher than it was at the end of November.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term, but I am not expecting a crash. I’ll hold my current stock positions unless indicators suggest otherwise. I would need to see a lot more deterioration in Breadth before I adjust stock holdings.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Tuesday, March 3, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
MORGAN STANLEY – Markets will “catch down” (The Street)
“In a recent CNBC interview, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson laid out his blunt two-word verdict on what he feels is happening beneath the surface of the S&P 500.  He argues that even though the index may feel it’s stuck in a relatively tight, give-and-take range, a stealth correction is already well underway. The issue is that the damage isn’t propping up in the headlines…He says that there’s a head-turning 68% spread between the top 50 and bottom 50 stocks year-to-date (the largest in two decades)… the S&P 500 [should] “catch down,” which means that the index would reflect the weakness that we’re already seeing in the average stock.” Story at…
 
CRASH COMING? (The Telegraph)
“Mr Blankfein, who ran Goldman from 2006 until 2018, said the financial system appeared to be moving towards another catastrophe as a result of the boom in private credit, a corner of the market often referred to as shadow banking. He criticized private credit lenders for attempting to encourage retail access at a time when they are most unstable.” Story at…
My cmt: Maybe, but indicators are not currently suggesting a crash
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.9% to 6817.
-VIX rose about 10% to 23.57.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.067% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -2 to -12 (12 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations turned down – a BEARISH indication.
 
Some new bear signs were:
- A New Hindenburg Omen.
-The Fosback short-term Hi/Lo Logic Index.
-The S&P 500 is 1.3% below the 50-dMA and it has been for three days in a row suggesting a trend reversal down.
-The S&P 500 broke below its lower trend line.
-The S&P 500 dropped below its 100-dMA
 
Not all the news was bad.
Tuesday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time,
 
Looking at support levels. The S&P 500 is essentially at 6800 now.  We’ll have to see if that level holds. The 100-dMA was broken today. The 200-dMA of the S&P 500 is 6570, about 3.8% below today’s close.  Another level of support is 6550, the 19 November low. My guess is that the S&P 500 will drop to its 200-dMA around the 6550-6570 level.
 
It seems like markets are doing terribly, but the S&P 500 is only 2.3% below its all-time high.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish on the markets in the short-term, but I am not expecting a crash. I’ll hold my current stock positions unless indicators suggest otherwise. I would need to see a lot more deterioration in Breadth before I adjust stock holdings.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Monday, March 2, 2026

ISM Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
TEHRAN—In a surprise attack that has rattled the White House, on Saturday morning the Iranian Air Force dropped unredacted copies of the Epstein files on the U.S. Standing in front of a banner reading, “OMISSION UNACCOMPLISHED,” Iran’s spokesman said that its aircraft dropped the files over most major media outlets in the U.S. but skipped CBS and CNN. “Like Bari Weiss is going to run with this story?” he scoffed. “Good one.”
The spokesman added that Iran had not bothered to drop the files over the U.S. Capitol, stating, “We have seen no evidence that Congress still exists.” – Andy Borowitz.
 
U.S. SAW CHANCE TO KILL TOP OFFICIALS (WSJ)
“Israeli and U.S. military intelligence had long watched and waited for a rare opportunity: senior political and military leaders in Iran holding a meeting—where they could all be killed at once. The day finally came Saturday… 
…The moment was so unique that U.S. and Israeli warplanes struck in full daylight…
…Israel also said it had killed a number of other top political and military officials including Ali Shamkhani, a top security adviser to Khamenei; Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh.” Story at…
 
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the second straight month but only the third time in 40 months, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.” Report at…
 
-Monday the S&P 500 was little changed at 6882.
-VIX rose about 8% to 21.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.048% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was flat – a NEUTRAL indication.
 
Even the air strikes on Iran made very little impact on the markets. In the past, these actions have produced short-term declines. That was certainly true during the first Gulf War. Markets dropped at first and later recovered. Today, markets were down at the open. Apparently, investors saw the morning weakness and decided to buy the dip. As the daily chart shows, the S&P 500 recovered all of its opening losses.
 
A lot of questions remain about oil prices and transportation routes. Investors may reconsider buying. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more weakness. Indicators have been going nowhere as has the S&P 500 and Futures are down as I write this.
 
Unless indicators show a lot more negativity, I will not be selling stocks. I cut leveraged funds at a small profit before all this started and at the same time, I trimmed technology issues.
 
Levels of support remain. On the S&P 500, they are: 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.7% above the 100-dMA and 4.8% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain a nervous neutral on the markets. I am HOLD on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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