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Friday, September 25, 2026

Durable Goods … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -1 to -5 (5 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Thursday and Friday, the 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator was signaling “Buy”. What does that mean? I asked Google AI:
“A "buy" signal from a 5-day or short-term variation of Norman Fosback’s High-Low Logic Index means the market has experienced a washout or extreme capitulation, signaling a potential market bottom.“

Fosback’s Hi/Lo Index uses new-highs and new-lows in its calculation. Friday, there were only 12 new-highs. When was the last time we saw 12 or fewer new, 52-week highs? I had to go back to April 2025 when there were only 7. That was the day after the bottom of a 19% correction. (There was only 1 on the day of the bottom.) Go back further and we note only 8 at the bottom of the 25% correction in October of 2022. Low numbers are signaling bottoms; thus, we can validate Fosback’s analysis with that simple check.

The S&P 500 is less than 1% from all-time highs.

It may be time to add to stock holdings. Let’s see what happens next week.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, September 24, 2026

Jobless Claims … Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

DEAL TO OPEN STRAIGHT OF HORMUZ DISCUSSED (Reuters)
“US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-iran-discuss-phased-deal-reopen-hormuz-end-us-blockade-sources-say-2026-09-24/

PHILLY FED ANNA PAULSON SAYS “MODEST” MOVES NEEDED TO TAME INFLATION (CNBC)
“The rate hike, which took the key funds rate to a target range of 3.75%-4%, “brings policy closer to what I believe is needed to return inflation to 2% at a pace that balances inflation with risks to the labor market. Looking ahead, if conditions evolve as I expect, some modest further tightening may be warranted.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/philadelphia-feds-anna-paulson-says-modest-rate-moves-likely-ahead-to-tame-inflation.html

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“Fewer people applied for U.S. unemployment benefits last week, as U.S. jobless claims remain at historically low levels and most Americans enjoy job security. The Labor Department said Thursday that 197,000 people applied for unemployment checks last week, the fewest since mid-July…” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/jobs-unemployment-claims-layoffs-91d99d8ff50cd5aea33a858c677976d5

HOME SALES (Reuters)
“Sales of new US single-family homes surged to an eight-month high in August as buyers took advantage of price cuts and other incentives, but rising mortgage rates stemming from the war in the Middle East remain a drag on the housing ‌market. New home sales increased 6.4%...” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-new-home-sales-jump-eight-month-high-august-2026-09-24/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 was little changed at 7704.
-VIX rose about 3% to 15.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.200% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -7 to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Thursday, there was a good improvement in Spread, so I think the bullish impression I had yesterday remains.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Global PMI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

REPUBLICAN SENATOR CALLS FOR INVESTIGATION OF TRUMP JR. (WSJ)
“A Republican senator called for an investigation of Donald Trump Jr., following the disclosure that the president’s oldest son received a lavish afterparty as a wedding gift from a Russian businessman connected to the Kremlin. Sen. John Curtis (R., Utah) sent a letter to the heads of the Judiciary Committee requesting a probe into the “use of presidential family relationships for private financial benefit, preferential treatment, or access by domestic and foreign interests.” … “A toaster is a wedding gift. A private-island party paid for by a Putin-connected oligarch is something else,” Curtis said. “Republicans nearly wore out the subpoena machine investigating Hunter Biden’s foreign relationships. We should not unplug it now.” … Donald Trump Jr. and his wife’s postwedding celebrations—held over two days on exclusive islands in the Bahamas—were paid for by Umar Kremlev, a Russian businessman with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/donald-trump-jr-probe-john-curtis-81d86747
My cmt: Trump family grifting continues, although Trump says Trump Jr. paid back the Russian oligarch. In my years in Government, DOD policy was to avoid even the appearance of impropriety. Do you think having a friend of Putin pay for your wedding might be improper?

S&P GLOBAL FLASH PMI (S&P Global)
“US business activity growth accelerated for a fourth successive month in September to reach the fastest rate for over five years. A further surge in service sector business activity was accompanied by a renewed improvement in manufacturing output growth. Employment also rose sharply, with jobs added at a pace not seen for over four years, as firms sought to meet rising demand.” Report at…
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/

CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased 3.0 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels, 2% above the five-year average.” Report at…
https://ir.eia.gov/secure/wpsr/summary.txt?Policy=eyJTdGF0ZW1lbnQiOlt7IlJlc291cmNlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9pci5laWEuZ292L3NlY3VyZS93cHNyLyoiLCJDb25kaXRpb24iOnsiRGF0ZUxlc3NUaGFuIjp7IkFXUzpFcG9jaFRpbWUiOjE3OTA3NzQ0MDB9LCJEYXRlR3JlYXRlclRoYW4iOnsiQVdTOkVwb2NoVGltZSI6MTc5MDE3MzgwMH19fV19&Signature=SuBpnG5wphoEsJtLtc6tDuEr4A7H-xmwPf~3Lrqu7LwBte1OyOIRT7BGQ3Ulx16hGCdPXcNCT1Ec0kO5SkQZMNXIAxEUykprkKa2WfMPSy~QzbdJ3XUfbkj9Pcrc0Ir4sy-4nDF6p~YVfGJLG6IO5l28x~ObSgSdZc7~UVeo4ohh2wRAFzmp9H5Nz88fQXU2QcWYcpqN0CCOZDUYEKajq7mlpFi4BdXIteQSa79FBwvRbMxD1vNBm4LzV~Hdd3nin2AdiIdH25~1cjPLo-VJ9PsfUDkNo-JH19-vU~vi9pTVJLNAoklsH571xqA0QCWX16xpfuCxSptafPnvmGHDbw&Key-Pair-Id=K3DQBFTM6ZVVS9

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 7706.
-VIX rose about 7% to 15.18.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.11% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -6 to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.

By the above numbers, we have differing Bear and Bull indications from the same indicator analysis. Which do we believe? The 10-day value shows a general improvement rather than the daily movements. I’ll take the 10-day and it is bullish. Let’s see if it continues to give us good news.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Richmond Fed Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -8 to -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.

Repeating yesterday’s note:
Price action has improved. The “Summary of Indicator Spread” chart above shows that when the spread bottoms and then improves sharply, the bottom is usually in. I’ve marked recent spread bottoms with a blue vertical line. The S&P 500 is only about 2% below its all-time high. The chart suggests that highs are ahead.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, September 21, 2026

National Activity Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

"I'll be honest. I don't think the president could spell AI if I gave him the first letter." - Rep. Stephen Lynch during Treasury Secretary Bessent’s Congressional testimony.

TO HELP MUSLIMS; REJECT ISLAMISTS (WSJ-Excerpt)
“…The al Qaeda hijackings also served as a wake-up call: The Middle East’s radicalism had come to America. The destructive ideological movements I left behind eight years earlier had crossed the ocean to my adopted homeland. Yet I was sure the American people would rise to the challenge and beat back the threat, as they had in World War II.
I was naive. Rather than stop extremist movements, American democracy has accommodated them. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D., Mich.) has shared a platform with a man prosecutors named as a possible unindicted co-conspirator in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. Ramzi Kassem, a lawyer who defended an al Qaeda operative, is chief counsel to the New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. The Council on American-Islamic Relations published a back-to-school resource guide that suggested high schoolers read Osama bin Laden’s “Letter to America.” Rep. Ilhan Omar (D., Minn.) once spoke at a CAIR fundraiser, where she described the 9/11 attacks as “some people did something” and complained about repression in America…
…Our country appears to have forgotten 9/11’s lessons. The Islamist threat didn’t disappear, it evolved. The same Muslim Brotherhood ecosystem became more professional and refined its tactics to exploit America’s open society, all while accusing America of being a hive of bigotry. Victimhood became the key pose, coupled with civil-rights rhetoric that confuses decent Americans. Exploitation of school boards, city councils, and the Democratic Party has enabled movement ideologues to achieve positions of power.
…Muslims who love America need to speak that truth. We aren’t victims, and we shouldn’t scapegoat other minorities or indulge in conspiracy theories. We are long overdue to demonstrate mature and patriotic civic leadership.
We must also speak bluntly to those fellow Americans who think Islam is the problem. Our spiritual tradition has given the world algebra, chemistry, physics, surgery, pediatrics, the concept of separation of powers and much more. Our problem is extremist political movements that manipulate and hide behind religion to advance their agenda…
…The first condition of making America great is safety. The U.S. government can’t keep kicking down the road the problem of Islamism in America. The American people should stop giving platforms and salaries to people who treat America as a hotel and an ATM rather than a treasured homeland.
To my fellow Americans who offered solidarity after 9/11: Thank you for protecting me. Now protect our country. Please open your eyes and confront rather than coddle the extremists abusing our democratic system.” - Zainab Al-Suwaij, President, American Muslim League.

TREASURY YIELDS ARE BLOWING UP CBO’s LONG-TERM FORECASTS (Fortune)
“The $40 trillion in U.S. debt that has accumulated as well as $2 trillion in annual budget deficits that show no sign of improving are also factors… the future looks more expensive. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that if yields remain more than 80 basis points over baseline projections, the U.S. will spend $2.7 trillion on annual interest payments by the end of the decade—more than Medicare or Social Security retirement benefits.
“The real threat is the debt spiral. If interest begets debt, and debt begets interest, eventually debt will spin out of control.” Story at…
Treasury yields are already blowing up the CBO’s long-term forecasts, and experts who previously downplayed US debt fears are now starting to worry

NATONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Chicago FED)
“Index Suggests Economic Growth Decreased in August.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.04 in August from +0.08 in July.” Press release at…
https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.5% to 7765.
-VIX rose about 0.4% to 14.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.951% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -15 to -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.

Monday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.

Price action has improved. The “Summary of Indicator Spread” chart above shows that when the spread bottoms and then improves sharply, the bottom is usually in. I’ve marked recent spread bottoms with a blue vertical line. The S&P 500 is only about 2% below its all-time high. The chart suggests that highs are ahead.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, September 18, 2026

Industrial Production … Leading Economic Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a very BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.

The S&P 500 closed 0.4% above its 50-dMA. Price action continues slightly bullish even if most of the indicators aren’t confirming it. However, one did.

Friday, there was a bullish outside reversal pattern on the charts.
“A Bullish Outside Reversal is a two-day technical analysis candlestick pattern that signals a potential reversal of a downtrend, indicating that buyers (bulls) have taken control from sellers (bears). It occurs when the current session's price range completely engulfs the previous session's range, often appearing as a Bullish Engulfing pattern” – Investopedia.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but a little more optimistic.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Philly Fed … Jobless Claims … Housing Starts … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

"I'll be honest. I don't think the president could spell AI if I gave him the first letter." - Rep. Stephen Lynch during Treasury Secretary Bessent’s Congressional testimony.

WSJ LETTERS TO EDITOR:
PARTIES CHOOSING PANDERING OVER PRUDENCE (WSJ)
“Regarding your editorial “Trump Has a $5,000 Bridge to Sell You” (Sept. 11): The absurdity of President Trump’s promise of a $5,000 “dividend” for every U.S. adult citizen if Republicans hold Congress in November pales in comparison to the Democrats’ more costly and far more cynical proposals.
Independent analyses estimate the cost to the federal government of “Medicare for All” would be between $25 trillion and $35 trillion over 10 years. Free undergraduate education, expanded student-loan forgiveness, free day care and more generous food stamp and housing voucher transfer payments would add trillions more in fiscal folly to a national debt that has crossed the $40 trillion threshold.
The bridges that Democratic candidates are selling involve the creation of new bureaucracies or the expansion of existing ones. Unlike one-time payments, the “free” programs that Democrats advocate will last as long as the war on poverty, if not forever.” - Steven Sarfatti

“In addition to our $1.9 trillion annual deficit, piled onto $40 trillion in debt, the leader of the Republican Party offers a $1.2 trillion bribe to keep his party in office. Let that sink in for a minute. The only political party that represents fiscal conservatism is fine drowning us in debt. This is why so many thoughtful Americans are now independents, and why many of us are working hard to normalize independent candidates. If we don’t, we see no hope that our nation will avoid a debilitating financial crisis.” - Mike Collier
WSJ letters at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/both-parties-choose-pandering-over-prudence-51396877?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos9

PHILLY FED INDEX (Seeking Alpha)
“The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to 37.8 in September 2026 from 47.4 in August, remaining strong and beating the market consensus of around 31.3.” Story at…
https://www.tradingview.com/news/seekingalpha:267a91696094b:0-philly-fed-manufacturing-index-falls-less-than-expected-in-september/

JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The number of people applying for unemployment benefits dropped sharply last week, another sign that layoffs remain rare and most Americans enjoy job security. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims slid to 196,000, the fewest since mid-July and down from 206,000 the week before.” Story at…
https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/claims-unemployment-benefits-drop-196000-lowest-mid-july-136524400

HOUSING STARTS (Reuters)
“US single-family homebuilding increased in August, but a drop in permits for future construction suggested the improvement was likely temporary as rising inflation because of the war in the Middle East boosts mortgage rates. Single-family housing starts, which account for ‌the bulk of homebuilding, jumped 7.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 918,000 units last month…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-single-family-housing-starts-rebound-august-building-permits-fall-2026-09-17/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 7638.
-VIX declined about 13% to 15.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.939% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -15 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a very BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.

The S&P 500 closed 0.3% above its 50-dMA.

The Index is only 2.1% below its all-time high.

Thursday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.

The market has been concerned with the unknown of Fed rate hikes. Even though the hike was well anticipated, the market hates unknowns. The bad news (rate hike) is now in the past. My guess is that markets go higher, perhaps after a brief pause. From here I want to see how markets react. I’d like to see indicators improve, too, so I’ll watch in the near term.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but concerned.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)