Wednesday, April 22, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
LETTERS WSJ (WSJ)
“The calculus is simple in Democrats’ minds—President Trump and anyone or any nation aligned with him irrespective of geopolitical prerogatives is bad. Thus we find our most loyal ally in the fraught Middle East, Israel, a critically important combat and intelligence asset in the present war against the Islamist government in Iran, the subject of a Democratic fatwa against the supply of American arms.
These Democrats are aligning with an existential enemy of the Jewish state and their own government to try to gin up votes against Republicans, using the nascent antisemitic frenzy of their base to curry the vote. Such is the low state of a once proud political party.” - Paul Bloustein. WSJ letters at…
 
VIRGINIA VOTERS APPROVE GERRYMANDERING (CBS)
“Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a new congressional map that would give Democrats an advantage in 10 House districts, leaving just one safe Republican seat…”
Story at…
My cmt: This is a clear case of Tyranny of the Majority. The majority, 51.5% of Virginia voters, will allow Democrats to redraw Congressional Districts. Currently, there are 6 Democrat and 5 Republican Districts, a fair distribution for our Democrat leading Commonwealth. After the Democrat Gerrymander, there will be only 1 Republican seat. This effectively takes away honest representation from nearly half the voters in Virginia. The stated reason is to counter Trump’s actions in other states. While I am no fan of Trump, watching a Virginia Democrat majority trample on the rights of millions of fellow Virginians is despicable.  
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 7138.
-VIX declined about 3% to 18.92.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.307% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +14 to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers
 
The drop in the 10-day spread of Bulls minus Bears is a concern, but there is no reason to worry too much. We can watch and see where it goes.
 
The Bearish Outside Reversal signal from yesterday is canceled today since the S&P 500 closed above yesterday’s high.
 
I won’t chase this market, but as the war news gets better, I may get more comfortable with adding to stock positions. As a retiree, I am conservative. It is better not to lose than it is to worry about making every penny.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I don’t expect declines from here to be large, but it all depends on the news.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
JUSTICE THOMAS - WSJ LETTER (WSJ)
“Justice Thomas’s remarks were brilliant and he raised numerous excellent points. But the most important of these points is that the Constitution was designed to protect us from “excessive democracy.” The Founders recognized that pure democracies were short-lived, volatile and prone to devolve into tyranny. We are a constitutional republic, and our present inability to recognize the differences between this and a democracy threatens to undermine the protections that the Founders set. We see this in attacks on the Electoral College, the filibuster and the structure of the Senate. Most ominous, however, are attacks on the Supreme Court from both left and right. The court is, at present, the only properly functioning branch of government and the last bulwark against attempts to undermine that brilliant document that is the Constitution.” - Jim Reardon
My cmt: Virginia is currently experimenting with “tyranny of the majority” in a Gerrymandering Constitutional Amendment. It asks voters to abandon a 6-year-old Constitutional Amendment that established a non-partisan redistricting procedure. In its place, Democrats request the power to turn the Commonwealth from 6 Democratic and 5 Republican held Congressional Districts to 10 Democrat and 1 Republican. The stated reason is to counter Donald Trump. In other words, thru fear and false promises, the majority (assuming the Amendment passes) will remove representation from millions of Virginians and provide representatives who will vote against the desires of the voters in those Republican leaning Districts. That’s “excessive democracy” in action where the majority screws the minority.  
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 7064.
-VIX rose about 3% to 19.50.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.299% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +15 to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers
 
Today, Tuesday, was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
The Bearish Outside Reversal signal remains in place until the S&P 500 closes above the high on the Reversal Day. 
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.
 
I won’t chase this market, but as the war news gets better, I may get more comfortable with adding to stock positions. As a retiree, I am conservative. It is better not to lose than it is to worry about making every penny.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I don’t expect declines from here to be large, but it all depends on the news.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
 
Posted by at

Monday, April 20, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
INVESTING OR GAMBLING (WSJ - Excerpt)
“The biggest danger isn’t that the markets can go crazy, but that they’ll make you go crazy, too. The war in Iran is a seething stalemate, the price of oil is up about 60% this year, inflation jumped to 3.3% in March—and still U.S. stocks set all-time highs this week. A kind of gambling fever seems to be setting in…
…With the stock market marching upward as if all is right in the world, and with gambling behavior becoming the norm around us, it’s more important than ever to ask yourself a few questions before you make any trade. Here’s a simple checklist: Have I segregated this account from my long-term investments? Am I trading to make money or to have fun? What do I know that the person on the other side of this trade doesn’t? How do I know it? Am I willing to keep track of all my trades to see whether I’m making money on them overall? 
You won’t fall into a downward spiral of impulsive trading if you require yourself to pause and think before any gamble.” - Jason Zweig. WSJ, The Intelligent Investor column. Full commentary at… 
 
WARREN BUFFETT’S 90/10 RULE (Investopedia)
“Warren Buffett's 90/10 strategy involves allocating 90% of assets to a low-cost S&P 500 index fund and 10% to short-term government bonds.
-The 90/10 rule offers simplicity, lower fees, and the potential for higher returns.
-The strategy is based on historical returns for the S&P 500, as well as Buffett's skepticism about the performance of the average fund manager.
-Critics say such a high allocation to equities isn't suitable for all investors, particularly those nearing retirement or already retired.” …
 
RALLY HAS ROOM TO RUN (MarketWatch)
“McElligott [Nomura strategist] believes this market upswing could go on for a while, because of just how underexposed investors have been.
But there are two things that could bring it to a halt, the Nomura strategist warns. The first is if May starts to show the signs of a “physical energy gut-punch from the actual barrels and petrochem-shortages.” Subsequent higher prices on those commodities could see central banks panic into tightening interest rates given the energy supply shock, and that leads to his second potential flag — a bond-market selloff. He sees that possible as fears over energy shortages and rate hikes could trigger “eventual negative growth shocks around the world,” potentially dragging major economies into recession. Once bond yields start rising, markets could get spooked, halting the current chase higher for markets.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7109.
-VIX rose about 8% to 18.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.248% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers
 
RSI and the Advance/Decline Ratio both remain overbought. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little more weakness in the markets. Overall though, indicators look very good and I don’t expect declines to be big. A retest of the prior low is possible, but not likely.
 
Surprisingly, Sentiment remains bearish. I measure Sentiment as a 5-day average of %-Bulls (Bulls/{bulls+bears}) based on the amounts invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim mutual funds. The recent decline in sentiment is bearish enough, on a standard deviation basis, to be sending a bullish signal. That suggests that the market can go higher; I expect that it will, perhaps after some more weakness.
 
I won’t chase this market, but as the war news gets better, I may get more comfortable with adding to stock positions. As a retiree, I am conservative. It is better not to lose than it is to worry about making every penny.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, but markets are overdue for a down-day.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Friday, April 17, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
DEMOCRATS TRY TO BLCOK ARMS SALES TO ISRAEL (WSJ)
“Does Sen. Bernie Sanders, once an admirer of the Sandinistas and Fidel Castro, now set the Democratic Party line on foreign policy? That’s how it looked Wednesday, when Senate Democrats backed his resolutions aiming to block military sales to Israel. Republicans defeated the measures, but 40 of 47 Democrats voted to advance Mr. Sanders’s resolution blocking the sale of bulldozers and 36 opposed the sale of thousand-pound bombs to Israel... 
…Israeli capabilities are an asset to the U.S., which should encourage Jerusalem to buy its systems, munitions and equipment. Israel already seeks to wind down U.S. aid, but these are sales to a fighting ally. The votes to cut off arms in the middle of a war is an ominous turn that will encourage Iran, Hezbollah and their terrorist allies around the Middle East.” – WSJ Editorial Board. Opinion at…
 
WSJ LETTER
“Regarding Peggy Noonan’s “In Gut We Trust?” (Declarations, April 11): For 47 years, the Iranian regime has been chanting, “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!” For 47 years Americans preferred to look the other way. President Trump essentially said, “Death to Iran!” That is a message the regime understood, and they came to the negotiating table. In high-stakes negotiations, it is helpful to use language that our adversaries understand, even if that sometimes makes supporters uncomfortable.” - Glenn Ackerman, WSJ letters.
 
RALLY STANDING ON ONE LEG (Real Investment.com)
“This market rally so far has been driven primarily by a narrow group of large-cap growth stocks, with the Mag 7 $MAGS doing most of the heavy lifting while the broader market $RSP lags behind.
Despite strong index performance, participation remains weak, with only about half of stocks above their 200-day moving average and many sectors barely advancing.” – Lance Roberts.
My cmt: That was true yesterday – not so much today.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 7126, a new high.
-VIX declined about 3% to 17.47.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.248% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +12 to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers. We’ll keep an eye on the 10-day.
 
Today’s Overbought indicators were the same as yesterday: RSI; Advance / Decline Ratio; and the fact that 9 out of the last 10 trading days have been up. Bollinger Bands were not overbought today at the close, however, they had been overbought at the high for the day. It’s the close that matters, so there was no indication of an impending down-day. If both RSI and Bollinger Bands are overbought Monday, it would be a strong signal that the overdue down-day would be forthcoming.
 
Breadth improved today. There were 194 new, 52-week highs and the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE was over 62%. This cancels concern that we might see a correction greater than 10% start soon. The breadth numbers look good now; they are about at the 5-year average.
 
There’s an odd stat in the 12% run higher over the last 3-weeks – there has been relatively low % of up-volume. There has not been a single day when the up-volume was greater than 75%. Looking at the 10% correction bottom in 2023, there were back-to-back 80%+ up-volume days and 1, 90% up-volume day in the 3 weeks following the bottom. That would have given 2 legitimate buy-signals during the bounce higher. I can’t say that it means anything because it’s a rare event, but my up-volume indicator is one of the few bearish indicators in the 50-indicators I track daily.
 
I won’t chase this market, but as the war news get’s better, I may get more comfortable with adding to stock positions. As a retiree, I am conservative. It is better not to lose than it is to worry about making every penny.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, but markets are overdue for a down-day.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
Posted by at

Thursday, April 16, 2026

Philly Fed … Jobless Claims … Industrial Production … … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
TRUMP ATTORNEY DISBARRED (NBC News)
“John Eastman, a former attorney for President Donald Trump who helped engineer a last-ditch strategy to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, was disbarred in California on Wednesday over his efforts more than five years ago. The California Supreme Court said in a filing that Eastman could no longer practice law in the state, upholding a State Bar Court recommendation, and ordered him to pay $5,000 in sanctions.” Story at…
 
PHILLY FED INDEX (Sharecast)
“Manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia region strengthened sharply in April, with the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index rising to 26.7 from 18.1 in March - its highest reading since January 2025 and well above expectations…” Story at…
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
"U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, remaining in the range of the past few years even as the war in Iran continues to threaten the global economy. The number of Americans applying for jobless aid for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000 from the previous week’s 218,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.” Story at… 
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Plastics Today)
“US factory production unexpectedly fell in March after two straight months of solid gains, according to data compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Manufacturing output dipped 0.1% last month…” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7041, a new high.
-VIX declined about 1% to 17.94.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.313% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers. We’ll keep an eye on the 10-day.
 
Today’s Overbought indicators were: RSI; Advance / Decline Ratio; and the fact that 9 out of the last 10 trading days have been up.   Bollinger Bands were not overbought today. If both RSI and Bollinger Bands are overbought tomorrow it would be a strong signal that the overdue down-day will be forthcoming.
 
I heard Tom Lee on CNBC say that the stock market was in better shape at this new, all-time high compared to what it looked like at the last all-time high in January. That might be true if one were looking at PE. Trailing PE is now 26.8. At the prior high the trailing PE was 29.9, about 12% higher. But New, all-time highs for the S&P 500 give us an opportunity to check the health of the stock market. There were only 79 new-highs Thursday. That suggests that the markets are too concentrated and lack breadth.
 
This signal warns of a strong possibility of a correction greater than 10%. All we can do now is watch other indicators over time to see if they confirm or refute this indication.
 
The bull-Bear spread pretty still looks good, but failing breadth at a top is a real concern. We’ll see what develops.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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