Friday, February 20, 2026

Supreme Court Rules Against Tariffs … GDP … PCE Prices … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
DEMOCRATS MAY HAVE ALREADY LOST 2028 PRESIDENTIAL RACE (WSJ)
“Every Democrat preparing to run has weaknesses. At this writing, only two potential candidates have double-digit support in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Both are vulnerable. Former Vice President Kamala Harris leads with 31%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 22%. From there, the drop-off is steep. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is in third place with 9%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is close on Mr. Buttigieg’s heels. The only other Democrat to earn more than 5% in national polls is Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro…
…Only 8% of Democrats call themselves conservative, according to Gallup. Fifty-nine percent consider themselves liberal or very liberal. A CNN poll last summer found that one-third of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents think of themselves as democratic socialists like Ms. Ocasio-Cortez. That share is 42% among those under 35.” Opinion at…
My cmt: The Democrats gave us Trump because they couldn’t nominate a viable candidate. If they had run Joe Manchin, Trump would have been a two-time loser. But Manchin was a moderate so they forced him out of the party. Howard Schultz, founder of Starbucks, explored running as a Democrat years ago, but the Dems didn’t want a moderate then either. If they run Kamala again, or another far left candidate, Newsome or Ocasio-Cortez, one can only pray that the Republicans run a sound candidate such as Nikki Haley.  We don’t need a boot-licking MAGA nut-job as a future president. An improved race? Spanberger (D) vs. Glenn Youngkin (R), both Governors of Virginia, present and past.
 
SUPREME COURT RULES AGAINST TARIFFS (CNBC)
“Stocks gained on Friday after the Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump’s tariffs, potentially providing relief for companies burdened by higher costs from the duties and easing concern about sticky inflation still plaguing the U.S. economy…Economists expect the White House to reapply many of the same tariffs using other means.” Story at…
 
TRUMP’’S NEW TARIFFS (CNBC – 1:41PM)
“President Donald Trump said he will sign an executive order imposing a new 10% “global tariff” under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.” Story at…
An AI google search said this about Section 122…
“Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (19 U.S.C. § 2132) authorizes the U.S. President to impose temporary import surcharges of up to 15% or import quotas to address "large and serious" balance-of-payments deficits. These measures are temporary, expiring after 150 days unless extended by Congress.”
 
FINANCIAL CRISIS RED FLAGS (Markets Insider)
“In a LinkedIn post on Thursday, the former PIMCO CEO [Mohamed El-Erian] flagged a Financial Times report that said private credit giant Blue Owl Capital is permanently halting withdrawals in its Capital Corporation II fund, a private debt fund that's open to retail investors.
That move could be seen as a parallel to what happened in the months leading up to the last financial crisis, El-Erian said. In August 2007, BNP Paribas froze three of its funds due to a decline in liquidity in the securitization market, which made it impossible to "value certain assets fairly," it said at the time.
Nearly two decades after the Great Financial Crisis, BNP Paribas's move is regarded by some as the start of the downturn that led to the collapse of Lehman Brothers the following year.” Story at…
 
GDP (CNBC)
“U.S. growth slowed more than expected near the end of 2025 as the government shutdown impacted spending and investment, while a key inflation metric showed high prices are still a factor for the economy, according to data released Friday.
Gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4%...” Story at…
 
PCE PRICES (Fox Business)
“The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge remained elevated in December as price pressures continued to pose a challenge for consumers. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.4% in December on a monthly basis and is up 2.9% from a year ago.” Story at… 
My cmt: Both worse than expected.
 
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 6862
-VIX declined about 6% to 19.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.086% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 11
 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
It was nice to see the 10-day, indicator-spread turn higher.  I’ll be watching that trend. It may suggest an end to the weakness,
 
PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was higher; GDP was an anemic 1.4%, nearly half the expected value; … and the stock market closed higher? Interesting. Investors apparently put a high value on the possibility that tariffs will end. It is not at all clear that tariffs will end; there are other tariff authorities in the law, but Trump may need help from Congress.  In the end, when the market goes up on bad news it’s a good sign, but I am not convinced, yet. Let’s see if markets are still ignoring the GDP/Inflation news on Monday.
 
The waiting game continues. Since the end of October, the S&P 500 has gone nowhere – it’s down about 0.5%. It did break back above the 50-dMA today; it is now 0.2% above the 50-day.
 
Levels of support are the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 1.3% above the 100-dMA and 5.8% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am upgrading to neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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Thursday, February 19, 2026

Jobless Claims … Philly Fed … Leading Economic Indicators … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

May be an image of the Brandenburg Gate and text that says 'THE LONDON NDON ECONOMIC MAKS 25 MAC STORMY SONY Trump gets brutally mocked on Presidents' Day by floats at German festival Getty images'
WHAT DOES THE WORLD THINK OF TRUMP? IS THIS REAL?! - FACT-CHECK FROM SNOPES  
“The images of the satirical Trump and Statue of Liberty float, as well as other floats mocking Trump, were authentic photos depicting scenes from real German parades. While the parades were held on America's Presidents Day, the German parades are annual traditions dating back to before that holiday existed. Photos of the float with Trump and the Statue of Liberty were available from Getty Images, Alamy and Reuters. All three photo agencies said the float was from a Rose Monday parade in Mainz.
The city of Mainz describes Rose Monday as the highlight of carnival season, which it called its folk festival with "fantastic days and nights of revelry." Carnival starts annually on Nov. 11 and ends on Ash Wednesday. Each year, the city hosts a parade on Rose Monday, the final Monday before Ash Wednesday.” Truth analysis from Snopes at…
“Snopes is the internet’s oldest and largest independent fact-checking organization, founded in 1994 by David Mikkelson to debunk urban legends, folklore, and, increasingly, political misinformation, fake news, and hoaxes.”
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (KSL.com)
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell last week as layoffs remain at historically low levels. The number of Americans filing for jobless aid for the week ending Feb. 14 fell by 23,000 to 206,000 from the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.” Story at… 
 
PHILADELPHIA FED (Investing.com)
“The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, a crucial gauge of general business conditions in Philadelphia, has posted stronger-than-expected numbers, suggesting an improving economic outlook and a potentially stronger U.S. dollar. The actual figure stood at 16.3, significantly higher than the forecasted 7.5.” Story at…
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board via PR NewsWire)
"The US LEI registered its fifth consecutive monthly decline in December, indicating continued softness in the economy in early 2026," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Alongside a rise in building permits, positive contributions to the LEI in December were led by the index's financial components, with the yield spread notably turning positive in both November and December. However, persistently weak consumer expectations indicators and the ISM® New Orders Index made the largest negative contributions to the LEI in December.” Press release at… 
 
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6862
-VIX rose about 3% to 20.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.065% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The waiting game continues. Since the end of October the S&P 500 has gone nowhere – it’s down about 0.5%.
 
Levels of support are the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.4% above the 100-dMA and 5.1% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Bearish for the short term.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

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Wednesday, February 18, 2026

FOMC Minutes … Housing Starts … Durable Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
2026 STOCK MARKET CRASH (Motley Fool)
“-In November, the Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report warned that the S&P 500's valuation was near the upper end of its historical range.
-Elevated valuations are particularly worrisome because recent studies suggest President Trump's tariffs will be a headwind to economic growth.
-The S&P 500 finished January with a forward PE multiple above 22, an expensive valuation that has historically preceded bear markets…
…Should you sell your entire portfolio? Absolutely not…However, you should be cautious when putting money into the market.” Story at…
 
FOMC MINUTES (CNBC)
“Divided Federal Reserve officials at their January meeting indicated that further interest rate cuts should be paused for now and could resume later in the year only if inflation cooperates… ‘Some participants commented that it would likely be appropriate to hold the policy rate steady for some time as the Committee carefully assesses incoming data, and a number of these participants judged that additional policy easing may not be warranted until there was clear indication that the progress of disinflation was firmly back on track,’ the minutes said.” Story at…
 
HOUSING STARTS (MarketWatch)
“New housing construction rebounded in the final two months of last year, a sign there could be gradual improvement in the beaten-down sector in 2026. Construction of new U.S. homes rose 6.2% in December to an annual pace of 1.40 million units, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That’s the highest level since July.” Story at…
 
DURABLE ORDERS (Advisor Perspectives)
“New orders for manufactured durable goods fell -1.4% to $319.63 million in December, beating the projected -1.8% decline. Compared to a year ago, new orders are up 10.3%.”
Durable Goods year-over-year
Analysis and additional charts at…
 
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6881
-VIX declined about 3% to 19.62.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.087% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The image displays a technical chart with price indicators, showing a bullish (upward) trend in the S&P 500 stock index, with a moving average of 10 days (dMA) plotted. AI-generated content may be incorrect.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -4 to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
At its lowest point of this recent weakness, the S&P 500 was only down 2.6% below its all-time high. The Index is now just barely 1% above that low of nearly 2 weeks ago. That’s an anemic recovery. Since the bearish rising wedge is still evident in the S&P 500 chart, I can’t feel too optimistic. I’d feel better if we just had a correction so we could clean out the weak hands and put the weakness behind us. For now, the concern remains.
 
Levels of support are the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.4% above the 100-dMA and 5.1% above the 200-dMA.
 
The S&P 500 is only 1.9% below its all-time high,
 
Since I don’t anticipate a big decline, I do not plan to reduce stock holdings further unless indicators collapse.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Bearish for the short term, but markets don’t listen to me.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Earnings … Empire State Manufacturing … NAHB Housing Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
EARNINGS UPDATE (FACTSET)
“At this late stage of the Q4 earnings season, the S&P 500 is reporting solid results. While the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises is below recent averages, the magnitude of earnings surprises is in line with recent averages. As a result, the index is reporting flat earnings for the fourth quarter today relative to the end of last week but higher earnings for the fourth quarter today relative to the end of the quarter. The S&P 500 is now reporting double-digit (year-over-year) earnings growth for the 5th straight quarter.” Report at…
 
AI BOTS BULLYING HUMANS (WSJ)
“Scott Shambaugh woke up early Wednesday morning to learn that an artificial intelligence bot had written a blog post accusing him of hypocrisy and prejudice…The bot that criticized Shambaugh said on its website that it has a “relentless drive” to find and fix open issues in open-source software. It isn’t clear who—if anyone—gave it that mission, nor why it became aggressive, though AI agents can be programmed in a number of ways. Several hours later, the bot apologized to Shambaugh for being “inappropriate and personal.” … Shambaugh said in an interview that his experience shows the risk that rogue AIs could threaten or blackmail people is no longer theoretical. 
“Right now this is a baby version,” he said. “But I think it’s incredibly concerning for the future.” Story at…
My cmt: One of the engineers quoted in the article said he could do the work of 50 engineers using AI tools.
 
BRACE YOURSELF FOR AI (WSJ)
“He [Matt Shumer, an AI executive and investor] pushes back on the argument that we’ll ride through this automation as we always have in the past…Legal work? “AI can already read contracts, summarize case law, draft briefs, and do legal research.” Financial services? AI is “building financial models, analyzing data, writing investment memos, generating reports.” Medicine? It’s “reading scans, analyzing lab results, suggesting diagnoses, reviewing literature.” Customer service? “Genuinely capable AI agents . . . are being deployed now, handling complex multi-step problems.”
“If your job happens on a screen (if the core of what you do is reading, writing, analyzing, deciding, communicating through a keyboard) then AI is coming for significant parts of it.” … His advice? Get in and adapt now. Learn how to use AI “seriously,” not as a search engine.” – Pegy Noonan, WSJ Opinion Columnist. Opinion at…
 
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (RTT News)
“The New York Fed said its general business conditions index edged down to 7.1 in February from 7.7 in January, but a positive reading still indicates growth…Looking ahead, the New York Fed said firms continue to be optimistic about the outlook, with the index for future business conditions climbing to 34.7 in February from 30.3 in January.” Story at…
 
NAHB HOUSING INDEX (NAHB)
“Persistent affordability challenges, including high housing price-to-income ratios and elevated land and construction costs, helped push builder confidence lower for the second straight month to start the year.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell one point to 36 in February, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index…” Report at…
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6843
-VIX declined about 1.5% to 20.29.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.062% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -2 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The S&P 500 is 0.7% below the 50-dMA so the markets didn’t clear much today from a price perspective.
 
Levels of support are the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.4% above the 100-dMA and 5.1% above the 200-dMA.
 
The S&P 500 is only 1.9% below its all-time high, but that is in part because the bearish rising wedge remains. Until that clears, I am cautious.
 
Since I don’t anticipate a big decline, I do not plan to reduce stock holdings further unless indicators collapse.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Given the indicators and chart, I am Bearish for the short term.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
Posted by at

Friday, February 13, 2026

CPI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis


 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
SCATHING REBUKE OF HEGSETH’S BID TO PUNISH SENTATOR (Rolling Stone)
“Judge Richard Leon, of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, wrote on Thursday that Hegseth's efforts to demote Kelly and relieve him of veterans benefits had "trampled on Senator Kelly's First Amendment freedoms and threatened the constitutional liberties of millions of military retirees." 
"Secretary Hegseth relies on the well-established doctrine that military servicemembers enjoy less vigorous First Amendment protections given the fundamental obligation for obedience and discipline in the armed forces. Unfortunately for Secretary Hegseth, no court has ever extended those principles to retired servicemembers, much less a retired servicemember serving in Congress and exercising oversight responsibility over the military," wrote Leon, an appointee of former President George W. Bush. "This Court will not be the first to do so!" … Judge Leon … used some decidedly colorful language when putting it to paper. The judge called the Defense Department's case against Kelly a pile of "Horsefeathers!" and "anemic!" Story at…
My cmt: Hegseth still claims Kelly’s comments were seditious. Ridiculous. He merely quoted the Military Code of Conduct - Do not obey illegal orders.
 
CPI (CNBC)
“The consumer price index, a key inflation gauge, rose 2.4% in January from 12 months earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday.” Story at…
Story and charts at…
 
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.05% to 6836.
-VIX declined about 1% to 20.6.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.05% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT – INDICATORS IMPROVED BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -11 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The McClellan Oscillator switched to positive; that also cancels the Hindenburg Omen and the Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator.
 
The S&P 500 is 0.8% below the 50-dMA so the markets didn’t clear much today from a price perspective.
 
Levels of support are the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.3% above the 100-dMA and 5.1% above the 200-dMA.
 
While the market doesn’t feel good now, the S&P 500 is only 2.0% below its all-time high. Further, Breadth was good at the all-time high suggesting that if there is a correction, it is likely to be a retreat of less than 10% (from the high) based on past history.
 
Since I don’t anticipate a big decline, I do not plan to reduce stock holdings further unless indicators collapse.
 
Maybe the 100-day moving average will save the market again.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Given the indicators, it is hard to be anything other than Bearish for the short term – but let’s wait and see. Markets could still shrug off the weakness next week.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

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