Navigate the Stock Market

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Consumer Confidence … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

US MILITARY DIDN’T ANNOUNCE SHIP MISSILE STRIKE (NSJ)
“According to a report Monday by Task & Purpose, which cited an update to the Defense Casualty Analysis System, nine Marines and 29 sailors were wounded in the month of September in “overseas operations,” as part of their support of the Iran War… The report added that, in total, 443 service members had been wounded in action between July 7 and the report on September 23, with 417 wounded during the period known as Operation Epic Fury. All 860 of those wounded, the report said, came as due to “hostile action.” Story at…
The US military never announced that an Iranian cruise missile had struck a ship with American marines aboard it
My cmt: These numbers are already higher than the US incurred during the Persian Gulf War from 1990-1991; and we had troops on the ground during the 1^st Gulf War. This is just another sign that Hegseth/Trump didn’t have a clue when they attacked Iran. Apparently, US drone defense hasn’t caught up with drone capabilities. That should have been obvious. The WSJ reported that “Ukrainian drone operators have repeatedly trounced North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops, including Americans, in military exercises.” (WSJ – “Inside Ukraine’s Drone Mission Control Room”, Saturday/Sunday Sept 26-27). Given that we lacked effective and sufficient drone defense, the attack on Iran was ill timed and reckless.
Regarding the reporting, reporters are nit-wits: it is not normal to tell the enemy how effective their strikes have been.

Still, the news from the Gulf is getting better…

OIL IS TRAVERSING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ (CNN)
“Gulf oil producers, with considerable support from the US Navy, are jamming crude through the Strait of Hormuz, right under Iran’s nose.
Oil and petroleum product flows through the critical chokepoint averaged 13.1 million barrels per day last week, according to Kpler, a marine data tracking service. That’s just under 80% of the 17.1 million barrels that had traveled through the strait each day before the war broke out.” Story at…
Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can't go on like this forever

BOND SELLOFF GETTING WORSE (Markets Insider)
“The sell-off in US Treasurys picked up steam on Monday as traders took in the latest developments in the US-Iran war and a fresh surge in oil prices. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 8 basis points to 5.26%, a level fixed income investors haven't seen since 2002…The move attests to investors' worries about inflation and appeared to be fueled by President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal for a ceasefire and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
… Top economist Mohamed El-Erian said it looked like yields would remain elevated for the near-term, even if oil prices were lower...
"We have an imbalance in longer-term demand for bonds and longer-term supply of bonds," he said, speaking to CNBC on Monday. "We're not going back to 4%, 4.50%, 4.25%, simply because there's too much of an imbalance in the supply and demand." Story at…
Why the historic US bond sell-off is getting even worse

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^® fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 (1985=100) in September, down from 88.6 in August… “The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board… Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024. Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory. Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.” Report at…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7671.
-VIX declined about 0.2% to 16.04.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 5.234% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -12 (12 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Our conclusion is similar to yesterday. The 10-day spread is still bullish, even if it is just barely bullish. We also note that the index remains within in its upward moving channel (red lines in the above chart) so there is no point in getting too concerned. The S&P 500 is 0.3% above its 50-dMA and only 1.6% below its all-time high.

Breadth remains weak.

On a more positive note, only 7 days have been up in the last month and that is an oversold signal. The 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator continues to signal “Buy,” a probable bottom signal. But it is only one bottom indicator that is bullish. Others have not yet signaled “BUY” and they may not since there hasn’t been much of a bottom yet. I wait for more bullish signs before adding to stock holdings.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, September 28, 2026

Texas Manufacturing Outlook … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

INSIDE UKRAIN’S DRONE MISSION CONTROL ROOM (WSJ – Excerpt)
“The Unmanned Systems Forces… amounts to 2.5% of Ukraine’s armed forces, but it’s responsible for approximately a third of all Russian casualties in the past year.
…bureaucratic entrenchment hinders speed, efficiency, flexibility and innovation. How’s that working out? Iran is fighting asymmetrically, and a mighty show of U.S. force hasn’t been enough to restore free passage in the Strait of Hormuz. Europe can’t seem to stop suspicious drones from loitering near sensitive military sites and critical infrastructure. Last month Germany failed to detect an explosives-laden drone at the airport in Leipzig but got lucky when the detonator failed. Ukrainian drone operators have repeatedly trounced North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops, including Americans, in military exercises.
Something fundamental has changed about the threat, and that requires institutional changes to Western militaries.
…Our interview happens the same week as the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, which were an early example of asymmetrical warfare. “America already knows how one incident can turn everything upside down,” Maj. Brovdi [Maj. Robert “Magyar” Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces] says. “I don’t wish for something like this to happen involving drones, but it’s unavoidable. We need to prepare for that.” - Jillian Kay Melchior, London-based Editorial Board Member of The Wall Street Journal.
My cmt: The US has taken casualties and damage at middle eastern bases due to lack of drone defenses at those positions. We seem un-prepared for the Iran war that Hegseth and Trump began.

ANOTHER IMPEACHMENT (Newsmax)
“Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, warned Sunday that Democrats would impeach President Donald Trump for a third time if they capture control of the House in November's midterm elections. Jordan, speaking on New York's WABC radio show "The Cats Roundtable" with John Catsimatidis, predicted Democrats would use congressional oversight powers to target Trump, his administration, and others aligned with the president… Jordan also predicted that Democrats could target the eventual 2028 Republican presidential nominee and running mate with what he described as "nonstop weaponized investigations. Not for legitimate oversight, but to just go after your political opponents," he said.” Story at…
Rep. Jordan predicts 3rd Trump impeachment if Dems win
My cmt: Hmmmm. Why would the Democrats would want retribution against Trump and his allies? – Just kidding.

TEXAS MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK (Dallas FED)
“Texas manufacturing output growth accelerated sharply in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, jumped 13 points to 29.5, a reading suggestive of a robust pace of output expansion.” Story at…
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2026/2609

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 784.
-VIX rose about 8% to 16.07.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.236% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -5 to -12 (12 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

It’s disappointing to see indicators fall, but the 10-day spread is still bullish. We also note that the index remains within in its upward moving channel (red lines in the above chart) so there is no point in getting too concerned. The S&P 500 is still 0.6% above its 50-dMA and only 1.5% below its all-time high.

The 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator continues to signal “Buy.” I noted last week that it may be time to add to stock holdings, but I am going to wait for more bullish signs.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, September 25, 2026

Durable Goods … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -1 to -5 (5 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Thursday and Friday, the 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator was signaling “Buy”. What does that mean? I asked Google AI:
“A "buy" signal from a 5-day or short-term variation of Norman Fosback’s High-Low Logic Index means the market has experienced a washout or extreme capitulation, signaling a potential market bottom.“

Fosback’s Hi/Lo Index uses new-highs and new-lows in its calculation. Friday, there were only 12 new-highs. When was the last time we saw 12 or fewer new, 52-week highs? I had to go back to April 2025 when there were only 7. That was the day after the bottom of a 19% correction. (There was only 1 on the day of the bottom.) Go back further and we note only 8 at the bottom of the 25% correction in October of 2022. Low numbers are signaling bottoms; thus, we can validate Fosback’s analysis with that simple check.

The S&P 500 is less than 1% from all-time highs.

It may be time to add to stock holdings. Let’s see what happens next week.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, September 24, 2026

Jobless Claims … Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

DEAL TO OPEN STRAIGHT OF HORMUZ DISCUSSED (Reuters)
“US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-iran-discuss-phased-deal-reopen-hormuz-end-us-blockade-sources-say-2026-09-24/

PHILLY FED ANNA PAULSON SAYS “MODEST” MOVES NEEDED TO TAME INFLATION (CNBC)
“The rate hike, which took the key funds rate to a target range of 3.75%-4%, “brings policy closer to what I believe is needed to return inflation to 2% at a pace that balances inflation with risks to the labor market. Looking ahead, if conditions evolve as I expect, some modest further tightening may be warranted.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/philadelphia-feds-anna-paulson-says-modest-rate-moves-likely-ahead-to-tame-inflation.html

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“Fewer people applied for U.S. unemployment benefits last week, as U.S. jobless claims remain at historically low levels and most Americans enjoy job security. The Labor Department said Thursday that 197,000 people applied for unemployment checks last week, the fewest since mid-July…” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/jobs-unemployment-claims-layoffs-91d99d8ff50cd5aea33a858c677976d5

HOME SALES (Reuters)
“Sales of new US single-family homes surged to an eight-month high in August as buyers took advantage of price cuts and other incentives, but rising mortgage rates stemming from the war in the Middle East remain a drag on the housing ‌market. New home sales increased 6.4%...” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-new-home-sales-jump-eight-month-high-august-2026-09-24/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 was little changed at 7704.
-VIX rose about 3% to 15.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.200% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -7 to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Thursday, there was a good improvement in Spread, so I think the bullish impression I had yesterday remains.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Global PMI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

REPUBLICAN SENATOR CALLS FOR INVESTIGATION OF TRUMP JR. (WSJ)
“A Republican senator called for an investigation of Donald Trump Jr., following the disclosure that the president’s oldest son received a lavish afterparty as a wedding gift from a Russian businessman connected to the Kremlin. Sen. John Curtis (R., Utah) sent a letter to the heads of the Judiciary Committee requesting a probe into the “use of presidential family relationships for private financial benefit, preferential treatment, or access by domestic and foreign interests.” … “A toaster is a wedding gift. A private-island party paid for by a Putin-connected oligarch is something else,” Curtis said. “Republicans nearly wore out the subpoena machine investigating Hunter Biden’s foreign relationships. We should not unplug it now.” … Donald Trump Jr. and his wife’s postwedding celebrations—held over two days on exclusive islands in the Bahamas—were paid for by Umar Kremlev, a Russian businessman with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/donald-trump-jr-probe-john-curtis-81d86747
My cmt: Trump family grifting continues, although Trump says Trump Jr. paid back the Russian oligarch. In my years in Government, DOD policy was to avoid even the appearance of impropriety. Do you think having a friend of Putin pay for your wedding might be improper?

S&P GLOBAL FLASH PMI (S&P Global)
“US business activity growth accelerated for a fourth successive month in September to reach the fastest rate for over five years. A further surge in service sector business activity was accompanied by a renewed improvement in manufacturing output growth. Employment also rose sharply, with jobs added at a pace not seen for over four years, as firms sought to meet rising demand.” Report at…
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/

CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased 3.0 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels, 2% above the five-year average.” Report at…
https://ir.eia.gov/secure/wpsr/summary.txt?Policy=eyJTdGF0ZW1lbnQiOlt7IlJlc291cmNlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9pci5laWEuZ292L3NlY3VyZS93cHNyLyoiLCJDb25kaXRpb24iOnsiRGF0ZUxlc3NUaGFuIjp7IkFXUzpFcG9jaFRpbWUiOjE3OTA3NzQ0MDB9LCJEYXRlR3JlYXRlclRoYW4iOnsiQVdTOkVwb2NoVGltZSI6MTc5MDE3MzgwMH19fV19&Signature=SuBpnG5wphoEsJtLtc6tDuEr4A7H-xmwPf~3Lrqu7LwBte1OyOIRT7BGQ3Ulx16hGCdPXcNCT1Ec0kO5SkQZMNXIAxEUykprkKa2WfMPSy~QzbdJ3XUfbkj9Pcrc0Ir4sy-4nDF6p~YVfGJLG6IO5l28x~ObSgSdZc7~UVeo4ohh2wRAFzmp9H5Nz88fQXU2QcWYcpqN0CCOZDUYEKajq7mlpFi4BdXIteQSa79FBwvRbMxD1vNBm4LzV~Hdd3nin2AdiIdH25~1cjPLo-VJ9PsfUDkNo-JH19-vU~vi9pTVJLNAoklsH571xqA0QCWX16xpfuCxSptafPnvmGHDbw&Key-Pair-Id=K3DQBFTM6ZVVS9

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 7706.
-VIX rose about 7% to 15.18.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.11% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -6 to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.

By the above numbers, we have differing Bear and Bull indications from the same indicator analysis. Which do we believe? The 10-day value shows a general improvement rather than the daily movements. I’ll take the 10-day and it is bullish. Let’s see if it continues to give us good news.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Richmond Fed Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -8 to -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.

Repeating yesterday’s note:
Price action has improved. The “Summary of Indicator Spread” chart above shows that when the spread bottoms and then improves sharply, the bottom is usually in. I’ve marked recent spread bottoms with a blue vertical line. The S&P 500 is only about 2% below its all-time high. The chart suggests that highs are ahead.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, September 21, 2026

National Activity Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

"I'll be honest. I don't think the president could spell AI if I gave him the first letter." - Rep. Stephen Lynch during Treasury Secretary Bessent’s Congressional testimony.

TO HELP MUSLIMS; REJECT ISLAMISTS (WSJ-Excerpt)
“…The al Qaeda hijackings also served as a wake-up call: The Middle East’s radicalism had come to America. The destructive ideological movements I left behind eight years earlier had crossed the ocean to my adopted homeland. Yet I was sure the American people would rise to the challenge and beat back the threat, as they had in World War II.
I was naive. Rather than stop extremist movements, American democracy has accommodated them. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D., Mich.) has shared a platform with a man prosecutors named as a possible unindicted co-conspirator in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. Ramzi Kassem, a lawyer who defended an al Qaeda operative, is chief counsel to the New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. The Council on American-Islamic Relations published a back-to-school resource guide that suggested high schoolers read Osama bin Laden’s “Letter to America.” Rep. Ilhan Omar (D., Minn.) once spoke at a CAIR fundraiser, where she described the 9/11 attacks as “some people did something” and complained about repression in America…
…Our country appears to have forgotten 9/11’s lessons. The Islamist threat didn’t disappear, it evolved. The same Muslim Brotherhood ecosystem became more professional and refined its tactics to exploit America’s open society, all while accusing America of being a hive of bigotry. Victimhood became the key pose, coupled with civil-rights rhetoric that confuses decent Americans. Exploitation of school boards, city councils, and the Democratic Party has enabled movement ideologues to achieve positions of power.
…Muslims who love America need to speak that truth. We aren’t victims, and we shouldn’t scapegoat other minorities or indulge in conspiracy theories. We are long overdue to demonstrate mature and patriotic civic leadership.
We must also speak bluntly to those fellow Americans who think Islam is the problem. Our spiritual tradition has given the world algebra, chemistry, physics, surgery, pediatrics, the concept of separation of powers and much more. Our problem is extremist political movements that manipulate and hide behind religion to advance their agenda…
…The first condition of making America great is safety. The U.S. government can’t keep kicking down the road the problem of Islamism in America. The American people should stop giving platforms and salaries to people who treat America as a hotel and an ATM rather than a treasured homeland.
To my fellow Americans who offered solidarity after 9/11: Thank you for protecting me. Now protect our country. Please open your eyes and confront rather than coddle the extremists abusing our democratic system.” - Zainab Al-Suwaij, President, American Muslim League.

TREASURY YIELDS ARE BLOWING UP CBO’s LONG-TERM FORECASTS (Fortune)
“The $40 trillion in U.S. debt that has accumulated as well as $2 trillion in annual budget deficits that show no sign of improving are also factors… the future looks more expensive. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that if yields remain more than 80 basis points over baseline projections, the U.S. will spend $2.7 trillion on annual interest payments by the end of the decade—more than Medicare or Social Security retirement benefits.
“The real threat is the debt spiral. If interest begets debt, and debt begets interest, eventually debt will spin out of control.” Story at…
Treasury yields are already blowing up the CBO’s long-term forecasts, and experts who previously downplayed US debt fears are now starting to worry

NATONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Chicago FED)
“Index Suggests Economic Growth Decreased in August.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.04 in August from +0.08 in July.” Press release at…
https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.5% to 7765.
-VIX rose about 0.4% to 14.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.951% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -15 to -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.

Monday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.

Price action has improved. The “Summary of Indicator Spread” chart above shows that when the spread bottoms and then improves sharply, the bottom is usually in. I’ve marked recent spread bottoms with a blue vertical line. The S&P 500 is only about 2% below its all-time high. The chart suggests that highs are ahead.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)