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Monday, July 27, 2026

Durable Goods … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

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More off-topic rambling…

DONORS MAKE DEMOCRATS CRAZY (WSJ – Excerpt)
“Nothing Left: Confessions of a Democratic Operative,” published next week…Ms. Barker’s memoir seeks to explain how and why a large segment of the Democratic Party, emotionally undone by the improbable two-time triumph of a helter-skelter populist celebrity, sought solace in socialism and various racialist and radical ideologies…
…The value in Ms. Barker’s memoir—other than the laughs—lies in its depiction of her party’s biggest and least acknowledged problem: its guilt-ridden donors and the web of cash-flush activist groups, anticapitalist nonprofits and issue-oriented super PACs they sustain. Her book abounds with busybody advocacy groups, donor advisory networks and consultancies run by know-nothing 20-somethings.
One donor Ms. Barker solicits [has a phone voicemail that] announces: “If you are not a woman of color, please do not bother leaving a voicemail. I won’t donate to you.” Still another, an heiress to an oil fortune, lavishes money on left-wing groups, Ms. Barker reasonably surmises, “to try to right her family’s wrongs.”
Nothing like the ecosystem created by these plutocratic ideologues exists on the right, which has its own pathologies. That the left’s multibillion-dollar matrix tends to generate crackpot candidates in the grip of conspiracy theories hardly surprises.” – Barton Swain, Opinion Columnist, Unruly Republic, The Wall Street Journal. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donors-make-democrats-crazy-1ce06605?mod=author_content_page_1_pos_1
My cmt: Regular readers know that I blame the Democrats for the second Trump Presidency. A reasonably moderate Democrat ticket in 2024 would have easily defeated Trump. But it gets worse: Howard Schultz, former CEO of Starbucks, considered running for President as early as 2012, but the Democrats didn’t want him because he was too moderate. Too bad – he could have beaten Trump in 2016. He has charisma; Hillary didn’t. Had Schultz run in 2016, Trump would be just another failed politician instead of a two-time President.

A BRITISH PSYCHIATRIST DEBUNKS AN AMERICAN RACIAL MYTH (WSJ – Excerpt)
“Life at the Bottom,” a 2001 collection of essays by Theodore Dalrymple, the pen name of Anthony Daniels, who worked as a psychiatrist and physician in a British slum and nearby prison. Anyone familiar with the antisocial behavior that characterizes so many black ghettos in the U.S.—the drug use, promiscuity, domestic abuse, violent crime, aversion to education—will recognize the world Dr. Dalrymple chronicles. The difference is that he’s describing the U.K.’s white underclass…
…The book’s essays “demonstrated that the social problems of America were not primarily racial in origin—in the sense that the black population was disproportionately disposed to them because of either inherent defect or the historical injustice they had undoubtedly suffered—but because of the culture and mores that a proportion of that population now espoused,” Dr. Dalrymple writes in a preface to a new edition of his book. “What I observed in England was a breakdown similar to that in these poor, black neighborhoods in America, but the population was white rather than black and therefore race had nothing to do with it.” – Jason L. Riley, Opinion Columnist, Upward Mobility, The Wall Street Journal. (Mr. Riley is a minority.) Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-british-psychiatrist-debunks-an-american-racial-myth-df57a7b2

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DEMS BLOCKED TRUMP OIL PURCHASE (Moneywise)
“At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, President Trump ordered the Department of Energy (DOE) to capitalize on low oil prices and shore up the SPR [Strategic Oil Reserve] with 77 million barrels. At that time, the price of oil was trading between $20 and $30 a barrel, which makes the proposed $3 billion purchase a steal compared with today’s prices in the $90-$100 range. In hindsight, this decision looks like a no-brainer. But not all lawmakers — particularly Democrats — saw it that way. For instance, Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was openly opposed to the $3 billion purchase, calling it a “bailout for big oil,” according to CNBC.” Story at…
Democrats killed Trump's $3B plan to fill the oil reserve at $20 a barrel in 2020 — now it's at its lowest since 1983
My cmt: Have I ever said that all politicians are weasels?

DURABLE GOODS (Census Bureau)
“New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, up three of the last four months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $334.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 4.0 percent May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.3 percent. Computers and electronic products, up nine of the last ten months, led the increase, $0.9 billion or 3.1 percent to $31.1 billion.” Report at…
https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf
My cmt: Durable Goods orders were up, but less than expected.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about a point to 7413.
-VIX rose about 0.5% to 18.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.647% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -13 to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Another bear sign popped up today although it is not one of my indicators. The 50-dMA of the S&P 500 turned down today. The curve had been rising. This is telling us that the S&P 500 is trending down.

Breadth has also trended down over the last 2-weeks – more issues on the NYSE have gone down over the last 2-weeks than have gone up.

The S&P 500 closed 0.8% below its 50-dMA. That’s the third consecutive close below the 50-day. Many would consider that to be a trend break. Perhaps, but given that this decline is news driven, I am not willing to make changes to the portfolio yet. There was a new Bullish sign today.

Monday, there was a bullish outside reversal pattern on the charts.
“A Bullish Outside Reversal is a two-day technical analysis candlestick pattern that signals a potential reversal of a downtrend, indicating that buyers (bulls) have taken control from sellers (bears). It occurs when the current session's price range completely engulfs the previous session's range, often appearing as a Bullish Engulfing pattern” – Investopedia.

Perhaps the Bullish Outside reversal will lead to a “Turning Tuesday.” As Jeffrey Saut once wrote regarding a past downturn: “… once the markets get into one of these weekly downside skeins, they rarely bottom on a Friday. Nope, they typically give participants over the weekend to brood about their losses and then they show up the next Monday in “sell mode” leading to Turning Tuesday.”

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish and will remain so until the S&P 500 climbs above its 50-day or indicators improve. Both the chart and indicators remain concerning.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
I updated the Momentum Chart: Google has been added; Verizon deleted.

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, July 24, 2026

S&P PMI … New Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

"Mike Pence didn't have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution." – Donald Trump, Tweet sent at 2:24 p.m. on Jan. 6, as rioters attacked the Capitol.
My cmt: If VP Pence hadn’t certified the election, as Trump demanded, in theory, the election would have been settled in the House of Representatives on a State-by-State basis. If all the Republicans had gone along, Trump would have been appointed President in 2020, even though he lost the election.
FYI: The Constitution does not give the Vice President the power to ignore the Electoral College and fail to certify an election. It is probable that if Pence hadn’t certified the election, the Supreme Court would have certified it, but fortunately, Pence was a man of honor (unlike many of our current politicians) and we’ll never know.

S&P SERVICES PMI / MANUFACTURING PMI (S&P Global)
“US business activity growth accelerated at the start of the third quarter, according to provisional PMI® survey data, reaching an eight-month high and prompting firms to add staff for the first time in three months. Business confidence in the year-ahead outlook also rose to an eight-month high.
However, the improvement was confined to services, while manufacturing growth slowed sharply. Supplier delays meanwhile worsened to the greatest extent in nearly four years amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Price pressures also intensified, with input cost inflation reaching a 14-month high and selling price inflation close to a four-year peak.” Report at…
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/

NEW HOME SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“New-home sales in the US climbed in June for the first time in three months as heavy builder discounting helped offset high mortgage rates and subdued consumer sentiment.” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/us-home-sales-rise-first-143402237.html

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.05% to 7412.
-VIX declined about 1% to 18.58.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.681% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -9 to -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

The S&P 500 closed 0.8% below its 50-dMA. That’s consecutive closes below the 50-day. Many would consider that to be a trend break. Perhaps, but given that this decline is news driven, I am not willing to make changes to the portfolio yet.

The 5-10-20 Timer system indicator flashed sell today. It is based on the 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages of the Index. This contribution to the 50-day indicator spread is somewhat suspect as are other chart crossover indicators. The reason is that the S&P 500 has been nearly flat since early June, as have been moving averages, so it doesn’t take a very big move in the S&P 500 to create a bullish or bearish signal.

Reviewing price action today we note that volume declined, compared to yesterday’s low and there were improvements in market internals. These signals may be suggesting we’ll see higher prices next week.

Still, if indicators continue to drop to the point that we see zero bull indicators, it will be time to “panic.” We remember John Hussman’s words: “Faced with a combination of record speculative extremes and deteriorating speculative conditions, investors may want to remember that the best time to panic is before everyone else does.”

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish and will remain so until the S&P 500 climbs above its 50-day or indicators improve. Now, both the chart and indicators are concerning.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, July 23, 2026

National Activity Index … Jobless Claims … Kansas City Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

TROUBLING UPDATE (Blusher Me)
“Every American household is now paying close to $700 a month toward something no one ever signed up for: interest on the national debt. According to the Congressional Budget Office, that cost has already topped $857 billion this fiscal year, about $23.8 billion every week. None of it builds a road, funds a school, or covers a Social Security check. It only keeps the government's existing bonds from defaulting.” Story at…
Treasury Department has a troubling update for every American taxpayer

TRUMP IMMUNITY IN QUESTION (Raw Story)
“At issue is a tweet Trump sent at 2:24 p.m. on Jan. 6, as rioters were breaching the Capitol. The tweet said: "Mike Pence didn't have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution." In March, Mehta [U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta] ruled the tweet was an official act and therefore immune from civil liability.”
Trump immunity in question after judge finds tweet 'poured gasoline' on Jan. 6 riot
My cmt: This one may wind up in the Supreme Court. It seems to me that attempts to overthrow the results of the 2020 election would not be “official acts,” but one never knows. Judge Mehta (Appointed by President Obama) said “official.”

NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure…The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.02 in June from -0.19 in May.” Analysis at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/23/cfnai-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-economic-growth-june-2026

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“U.S. applications for jobless benefits tumbled to the lowest level in more than five decades last week as layoffs remain historically low despite global economic uncertainty.
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits in the week ending July 18 declined by 22,000 to 187,000…” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-097a210a86c0bebcba2b2625cd04c2dc

KANSAS CITY MANUFACTURING (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity remained steady in June. The composite index came in at 9 this month, down slightly from 11 in June but still indicating continued expansion.” Analysis at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/23/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-index-steady-growth-in-july

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1.2% to 7408.
-VIX rose about 18% to 19.66.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.699% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -4 to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

IBM’s poor earnings news Wednesday; Iran war heating up; Oil Prices up – $100 per barrel; bond market is worried (10-year at 4.699%) – that’s plenty of bad news. Technical indicators have been trumped by the news, but we didn’t see many bull-signs today anyway.

The 50-dMA of the S&P 500 has been broken again. The S&P 500 closed 0.9% below its 50-dMA. That’s a worry. Perhaps Intel’s good earnings report will help. Intel was up 13% at one point after hours, although it settled back to about 6% as I am writing this.

Thursday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost always occur on/or near Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms. Today could be a short-term bottom, but there are currently no Bottom Indicators and volume increased today. That is not a sign that suggests a bottom.

We’ve been watching Micron Technology (MU) to see if the correction in technology, especially the chips, might be ending. Micron was up another 3% Wednesday, but does it mean anything? Probably not – the news is bad and it doesn’t seem like one stock going higher is enough to stop the selling.

It appears that the market is mostly at the mercy of the Iran conflict and that is driven by two unpredictable forces – Iranian mullahs and Donald Trump. If I sell any stock, it would be a relatively minor adjustment. We have seen huge jumps in the market with any good news in Iran so making big moves may not be wise. If oil prices go higher or it looks like oil shortages might hit the US – all bets are off. So far, it does not appear that oil shortages are expected.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish and will remain so tomorrow, unless the S&P 500 climbs above its 50-day.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

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Look out…I am, once again, going off the rails on the 2020 election. Some of this is old and I have covered it before, but Trump keeps bringing it up. Skip it if you’re tired of my rants…

WHY DO SO MANY PEOPLE AGREE WITH TRUMP THAT THE 2020 ELECTION WAS STOLEN?
Well, the following article is typical of the garbage on the internet and it was widely circulated:
HEARTLAND POLL CLAIMS VOTER FRAUD WAS WIDESPREAD DURING 2020 (Yahoo Finance)
“A new poll [2023] by The Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports found one-in-five voters who cast mail-in ballots during the 2020 presidential election admit to participating in at least one kind of voter fraud.” – Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heartland-rasmussen-poll-one-five-161100197.html
My cmt: First of all, we need to always question the source of information. Immediately we see that the Heartland Institute is best known for its support of the tobacco industry. For more than a decade, the Heartland Institute claimed that smoking did not cause health problems. Hmmm...doesn’t seem too reputable to me. When I looked at some of the questions in the poll – They’re suspiciously worded and some of the results seem impossible. For example: “During the 2020 election, did you fill out a ballot, in part or in full, on behalf of a friend or family member, such as a spouse or child?” 21% of respondents said Yes. There’s nothing wrong with that activity and it is allowed in most states as long as the person who filled out the ballot didn’t forge a signature.

Yahoo also reported that “17% of mail-in voters said they voted “in a state where you were no longer a permanent resident.” This is extraordinarily high. It implies that 17% of mail in voters moved and that seems bogus; but since a lot of people did move during the pandemic, it’s possible that that many moved due to Covid. But the question doesn’t ask whether they voted twice; so while this might be a technical violation, it does not suggest that the election results were changed by these absentee voters. The question really is, “Did 17% of voters vote twice?” The poll doesn’t answer that question.

The Heritage Foundation maintains a voter fraud database and I have previously reported cases where voters voted in more than one state. For example, from the database: “Carol Hannah, was registered to vote in Mohave County, Arizona, and Adams County, Colorado, and was convicted of voter fraud for voting in both states during the 2010 election. Hannah's double voting was detected by the Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck Program, a system in which Arizona shares voter data with at least 20 other states. She was convicted and sentenced to three years' supervised probation and $1,000 in fines.” Voter fraud is a criminal offense. So far there is no evidence that fraud changed the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election.

The above Yahoo article concludes with the statement that “Taken together, the results of these survey questions appear to show that voter fraud was widespread in the 2020 election, especially among those who cast mail-in ballots.”

I’d say that what the article shows is that the author of this article is not very good at critical thinking and is more interested in getting views than providing worthwhile information.

Let’s check “voter fraud” in the 2020 election.
2020 VOTER FRAUD (Heritage Foundation Database)
Heritage Foundation reports that there have been 17 convictions for voter fraud in 2020. [Could be higher now; I haven’t checked this in a while.] Convictions included the following offenses: False Registrations; Buying Votes; Ballot Petition Fraud; Illegal "Assistance" at the Polls; Fraudulent Use of Absentee Ballots; and Ineligible Voting. A few from past elections follow:
-“Randy Allen Jumper voted twice in the 2016 general election. He voted by absentee ballot in Arizona and again by absentee ballot in Nevada. He pleaded guilty to attempted illegal voting, a class 6 felony. He was sentenced to two years probation, fined $5,000, and is barred from voting in Arizona.”
- “April Atilano, of Monterey County, pleaded guilty to 6 counts of felony voter fraud for falsifying voter registration forms. Atilano falsified a number of voter registration cards by changing party affiliation and forging signatures. The forms were submitted to the Madera County Registrar of Voters in July 2019. Atilano was sentenced to one year in prison and three years probation.”
-“Delores "Dee" Handy, of Crowley was found guilty of failing to mark a ballot as instructed when assisting an elderly voter, a misdemeanor. She was sentenced to 11 months in jail which was suspended, two years of probation, and fined $800.”

According to Trump. he was robbed in Georgia due to absentee voting, so let’s look at the numbers.
Donald trump won Georgia by 211,000 votes in 2016; Trump lost Georgia by 12,000 in 2020. So, by Trump’s claims, the Democrats would have needed to falsify at least 233,000 votes to flip the election. Since paper ballots matched the voting machines, the machines weren’t to blame. [Fox paid $750-million for lying about voter-machine fraud.] Absentee ballots? Absentee ballots were matched to voter registrations and signatures were checked. The Dems would have needed to forge close to a quarter-million signatures of existing voters and get them past the verifiers certifying the election - Absurd. Oh, by the way, if any of the 233,000 real people whose identities were stolen voted, they would be identified for duplicate voting. Could the Dems register a quarter million fake names and use them to vote? Not likely. As noted above, Ms. Alitano got caught submitting 6 false registrations.

It is simply impossible to steal an election on the scale that Trump continues to claim.
For more, see the Heritage Foundation website and search the database at...
https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud

On the most commonsense level, Trump was behind in the polls before the 2020 election. Why would anyone be surprised he lost? Further, it the Dems were so good at faking votes, why didn’t they give themselves a clear majority in the Senate so they could do whatever they wanted when Biden was President? (They didn’t get a majority in the Senate until runoff elections in Georgia were held after the 2020 Presidential election. Democrats won both Senate seats in the Georgia runoff after the November election thanks to Trump’s lying about the stolen election.)

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Back to the stock market…
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 7499.
-VIX declined about 2% to 16.64. (VIX was down? What were the Options Players thinking?)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.659% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next

XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

It was disappointing that the Index couldn’t hang on to its highs, but at least the close was higher than the morning lows.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -6 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

My comment is the same as Tuesday: I’ll take the optimistic side and suggest that the daily improvement in spread is more important than the smoothed 10-day value.

We’ve been watching Micron Technology (MU) to see if the correction in technology, especially the chips, might be ending. Micron only slipped 1.2% Wednesday. After the 12% move higher yesterday, a 1% dip today should be considered good news.

The S&P 500 slipped Wednesday, but it remains 0.4% above its 50-dMA. I follow the indicators, but we use them in conjunction with price action. Price above the 50-dmMA is in the safe zone.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -8 to -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

I’ll take the optimistic side and suggest that the daily improvement in spread is more important than the smoothed 10-day value.

We’ve been watching Micron Technology (MU) to see if the correction in technology, especially the chips, might be ending. Micron was up over 12% today and another 1.6% after hours. We may have seen an end to the technology correction? I think so, but what I think is not important – we need to see indicators continue to improve.

The S&P 500 bounce took it 0.5% above its 50-dMA, so that concern has been negated for now.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)