Monday, April 6, 2026

ISM Manufacturing … Payroll Report … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
TRUMP APROVAL ON THE ECONOMY HITS A NEW LOW (USA Today)
“President Donald Trump received his worst approval on the economy across both his presidencies in a new poll by CNN/SSRS released April 1. The poll found 31% of Americans approve of how Trump is handling the economy…” Story at…
My cmt: What a curious finding. There are countless reasons to disapprove of Trump, but by most accounts, the economy is in good shape. Business Schools used to teach that the lowest possible unemployment rate was 4%. It is currently 4.3%, close to “max full-employment.” I suspect that poll respondents don’t like high inflation. But that is a holdover from the Biden tenure when inflation hit 9% per year. At that rate, prices double every 8-years. Inflation was 2.4% in February. Prices double every 30 years at the current inflation rate.
 
The FED has a target inflation rate of 2%. You may wonder why it isn’t zero. The reason is Economists are afraid of deflation, when prices are falling. In that scenario, no one buys anything since they are waiting for lower prices. If no one is buying, there would be massive layoffs in retail, auto, manufacturing, etc. Falling prices aren’t good if they persist.
 
JANIE DIMON LETTER (Barrons)
“’The skunk at the party—and it could happen in 2026—would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down,’ Dimon wrote on Monday in his annual letter to shareholders. ‘This alone could cause interest rates to rise and asset prices to drop. Interest rates are like gravity to almost all asset prices,’ Dimon added. And falling asset prices at one point can change sentiment rapidly and cause a flight to cash.’” Story at…
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
60% UPSIDE FOR TWO STOCKS (Motley Fool)
“The Nasdaq Composite is off nearly 10% as investors factor in the risk that artificial intelligence (AI) agents could pressure demand for software from some industry leaders. That fear isn't baseless. But for large, enterprise-grade platforms, AI is more likely to increase their value to customers.
This is why Wall Street analysts still see significant upside for ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). Analysts aren't always right, but there are good reasons these companies could be rewarding investments for patient investors.” Story at…
 
THE LAST TIME THE STOCK MARKET WAS THIS EXPENSIVE… (Motley Fool)
“The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) recorded a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio of 39.2 in February. If that number doesn't mean much to you, here's the headline: The S&P 500 has only posted a CAPE ratio this high in the lead-up to the dot-com crash of 2000. The S&P 500 lost 49% of its value over the next two-and-a-half years.”
 
S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio
Chart and story at…
My cmt: The headline is scary and intended to get clicks.  The CAPE was nearly 50 preceding the Dotcom crash. That would imply another 20% gain is possible just from PE expansion. It doesn’t guarantee it of course; a crash from lower levels is possible. The article also states, “At current CAPE levels, Shiller's research implies forward annual returns of just 2%...” That assumes a crash that would yield a gain of only 2% over 10-years. I don’t see signs of a crash now.
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 56.2 percent, 2.3 percentage points higher than the 53.9 percent recorded in February. This is the 16th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)… Continuing strength in business activity, new orders and backlog of orders are positive economic signals, so the Employment Index dropping to its lowest level since December 2023 (43.5 percent) was a surprise.” Press release at…
 
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (CNBC-Friday)
“Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 during the month, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February… The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, though that was largely from a sharp reduction in the labor force.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6612.
-VIX rose about 2.3% to 24.42. (Options Players aren’t all that sanguine.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.333% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5.3% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -0.5%
Trading Days since top: 57. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +1 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, also a BULLISH sign.
 
I have been waiting for confirmation of the low that my system called on 20 March. The S&P 500 was down 7% at the time. It dropped another 2% to a low on 30 March.  Since then, we haven’t gotten much of a confirmation, but signs are looking good. Indicators have sharply rebounded on the above chart. Breadth has been improving for the last 5-sessions.
 
There are still some concerns: The S&P 500 is 0.6% below its 200-dMA and today’s volume was very low. We often hear a TV business-commentator state that a bounce is questionable due to low volume after a bottom.  I am used to seeing low volume after a bottom is made, since investors often don’t believe a low is in; but today’s number was very low. Total volume on the NYSE was about a third below the monthly average so there is investor confusion about what may be coming in the Middle East.
 
I’d still feel better if the Index would climb above its 200-day moving average, but the bottom appears to be in. It is possible we could see a re-test of the low, but that probably depends on the news.
 
I am still fully invested at 55% stocks in the portfolio, although I have a 20% cash position since I took some profits near the top. 50% in stocks is a good conservative position for a retiree. I don’t feel bad about having a high cash position since it is earning around 3.5%. Even though I think the bottom is in, I’m not rushing to add to stocks. As a retiree, return of investments is more important than return on investments.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’d like to see the S&P 500 climb above its 200-dMA, but I may still begin to add to stocks soon if indicators continue to improve.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

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Thursday, April 2, 2026

Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
  
TRUMP LIABLE FOR JANUARY 6?
“With its controversial 6-3 ruling in Trump v. the United States, the U.S. Supreme Court's GOP-appointed hard-right supermajority ruled that U.S presidents enjoy absolute immunity from prosecution for "official" acts in office but not for "unofficial" acts… But on Tuesday, March 31, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta — applying that standard — ruled that Trump's speech at a January 6, 2021 rally in Washington, D.C. was political in nature and therefore, is not protected from civil lawsuits related to the attack on the U.S. Capitol Building.” Story at…
My cmt: I suspect that the ruling indicates that Trump could be subject to criminal prosecution once he leaves office. Of course the Supreme Court's ruling protects ALL Presidents for Official acts. How could it be otherwise?  Should we prosecute Biden for Negligent Homicide for his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal? 
 
LATEST ON THE WAR (CNN)
“• Opening the strait: More than 40 countries attended a virtual meeting to discuss “every possible” method of fully opening the Strait of Hormuz…
 • Uncertainty surrounds US plans: Markets were rattled and oil prices soared Thursday, a day after Trump’s speech signaling the US will intensify strikes on Iran. The address offered few details on a strategy for exiting the war or securing global shipping….
 • Latest strikes: Iranian media said at least eight people were killed and 95 injured in a US-Israeli strike on a major bridge outside Tehran. Trump shared video of the bridge and vowed “more to follow.” Meanwhile, Iran’s military said it had struck an Amazon cloud computing center in Bahrain.” Story at…
 
MARKETS BOTTOM EARLY IN WARS – TOM LEE (MarketWatch)
“Stock markets bottom at the beginning and not end of wars is the reassuring message that Fundstrat’s Tom Lee sent to investors in a note coinciding with the first quarter’s final trading session. While the war’s duration is unknown, Lee looks at seven major conflicts dating back to 1900 and finds equity markets have a habit of troughing early on because investors “price adverse risks early and quickly.” He notes that historically, markets bottom within the first 10% of a war’s duration.” Story at…
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell last week amid low layoffs, suggesting labor market conditions remained calm in March, though economists have warned that a ‌prolonged war in the Middle East posed a downside risk. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits ‌dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended March 28…” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6583.
-VIX declined about 3% to 23.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.309% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5.7% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -0.9%
Trading Days since top: 56. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -3 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicator), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher.

 

I call bottoms based on falling volume and improving market internals as the S&P 500 declines. We got a weak buy-signal on 26 March using that methodology. The market fell another 3% to a low on Monday, 30 March, but has rebounded since then. There was no additional signal at the low and the markets seemingly are being whipsawed by news rather than technicals. Wednesday, Trump said the US planned to intensify attacks on Iran. Markets were down sharply at the open today, but rebounded as shown in the daily chart. It's a good sign when markets climb on bad news. I may dip my toe in the markets by buying some stock soon.
 
I’d still feel better if the Index would climb above its 200-day moving average. As of Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 remains 0.9% below its 200-dMA.
 
I wish we would see a solid buy-signal, but Mr. Market rarely listens to me.
 
I am still fully invested at 55% stocks in the portfolio, although I have a 20% cash position since I took some profits near the top. 50% in stocks is a good conservative position for a retiree.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’d like to see the S&P 500 climb above its 200-dMA, but I may still begin to add to stocks soon if indicators continue to improve.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Retail Sales … ISM Manufacturing … ADP Employment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JAMIE DIMON COMMENTS ON CAPITALISM
“In an interview with "CBS Evening News" anchor Tony Dokoupil, the JPMorgan Chase CEO rejects critiques of the country's economic system as no longer benefiting a mass of Americans as "dead wrong." Dimon acknowledged that capitalism has its drawbacks, but said it has helped lift "billions" out of poverty. His remarks come as millions of Americans struggle with the high cost of living and with some polls showing a decline in positive views of capitalism. A recent CBS News poll also found that most Americans think it is harder to buy a home, raise a family and get a good job than it was for past generations.” Story at…
 
THOMAS SOWELL COMMENTS ON CAPITALISM
“It was Thomas Edison who brought us electricity, not the Sierra Club. It was the Wright brothers who got us off the ground, not the Federal Aviation Administration. It was Henry Ford who ended the isolation of millions of Americans by making the automobile affordable, not Ralph Nader. Those who have helped the poor the most have not been those who have gone around loudly expressing 'compassion' for the poor, but those who found ways to make industry more productive and distribution more efficient, so that the poor of today can afford things that the affluent of yesterday could only dream about.”
― Thomas Sowell
 
TRUMP AGREES TO REPARATIONS FOR IRAN (ZNBC)
“President Trump announced that he has agreed to reparations for Iran that include several new Trump golf courses. Trump announced that preliminary demolition for the projects has been accomplished. This is the start of his peace thru sports initiative that will include the Trump brand. Trump pledged that all expenses to fund the projects will be borne by Iran.” Story at…
 
TRUMP SAYS U.S. WILL LEAVE IRAN SOON (CNBC)
“President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he expected that United States military forces will leave Iran in “two or three weeks…We leave because there’s no reason for us to do this,” Trump told reporters at the White House.” Story at
 
ADP EMPOYMENT (ADP)
“Hiring and pay gains both held steady in March. The smallest employers drove job growth for a second month, while hiring in trade, transportation, and utilities continued to decline. ‘Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care. In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers.’” - Dr. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP. Report at…
 
RETAIL SALES (Reuters)
“U.S. retail sales increased by the most in seven months in February as motor vehicle purchases rebounded and temperatures warmed up, but surging gasoline prices because of war in the Middle East were expected to crimp spending in the months ahead. The Commerce Department's delayed report on Wednesday suggested that the economy ​was on solid footing before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.” Story at…
 
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March for the third consecutive month… “In March, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, growing at a slightly faster pace than the month before…” Report at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 6575.
-VIX declined about 3% to 24.54.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.323% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5.8% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -1%
Trading Days since top: 55. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -15 to -3 (3 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher.
 
I was tempted to buy some stocks today. The NYSE Composite Index broke well above its upper trend line in this recent down trend; the S&P is very close to, or above, its upper trend line too.  
 
There were a couple of issues that bother me: (1) The S&P 500 is still 1% below the 200-dMA. That is a resistance level. (2) As of Wednesday, the S&P 500 has retraced 36% of its loss. The next Fibonacci resistance level is only slightly higher at 38%, if one believes in that sort of thing. (3) The war news was more bad than good:
  -Trump says we leave the middle east in 2 to 3 weeks; but he also says Iran wants a ceasefire.
  -Al Jazeera says that Iran’s foreign minister has denied making a request for ceasefire.
  -Iran's military announced a new wave of missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. and Israeli sites in the Gulf. From
 
I am still fully invested at 55% stocks in the portfolio, but I will add to that position when conditions look good since I have a 20% cash position.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’d like to see the S&P 500 climb above its 200-dMA, but I may still begin to add to stocks soon if indicators continue to improve.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Chicago PMI … Consumer Confidence … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
RECESSIONS (MarketWatch)
“A lot of folks are likening the investments in AI to the dot-com investments of the late 90s-early 2000s.
The point I [Dr. Tyler Goodspeed, the chief economist of ExxonMobil and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers] make is that actually, the triggers for recession tend to be much more prosaic. If indeed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz were to come to a halt for a protracted period of time, you are talking about 20% of the world’s petroleum that passes through that Strait. If that Strait were to remain closed to traffic for several weeks or longer, historically, that would have been a recession trigger.
There are some other things that we can see looking around the world today that remind us of past recessions. There’s a bill making its way through Congress — I don’t think it will pass — but it would impose a 10% cap on credit card interest rates. What credit card providers would tell you is that if that were the case, then there are a lot of accounts that would be closed, and a lot of credit that would not be extended. If you look back over the past 80 years, the imposition of credit controls was an accomplice to the murder of economic expansions in 1948, 1970 and 1980. So those are some of the culprits that I think history suggests we should be looking out for, rather than the more conventional narrative of boom-bust cycles.” Story at…
 
CHICAGO PMI (Investing.com)
“The latest Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data has revealed a deceleration in the growth of the manufacturing sector within the Chicago region. The index, which serves as a key indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing industry, recorded an actual reading of 52.8. This figure, while still indicating expansion, falls short of both the anticipated forecast and the previous month’s performance.” Story at…
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board via pr newswire)
"Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers' views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future," said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. "Three of five components of the Index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021." Press release at…
 
TRUMP SAYS U.S. WILL LEAVE IRAN SOON (CNBC)
“President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he expected that United States military forces will leave Iran in “two or three weeks…We leave because there’s no reason for us to do this,” Trump told reporters at the White House.” Story at
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 2.9% to 6528.
-VIX declined about 18% to 25.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.319% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 22 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 6.4% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -1.7%
Trading Days since top: 54. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -17 to -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower – a BEARISH indication. That’s disappointing!
 
As we noted Monday:
-Only 6-days have been up in the last month.  That level of bearish action is bullish.
-Both Bollinger Bands and RSI were oversold Monday.
 
Those are both strong oversold signals suggesting a bounce. Today we got one; boy did we ever.
 
The question is simple. Was today’s bounce a technical bounce from oversold conditions or was it a reaction to “unconfirmed” reports of a possible end to the Iran war. (Unconfirmed during market hours.) The answer is simple too – “Both.”
 
Has the weakness ended as dip-buyers stampeded into the market? The news at 6PM from Trump (see above Trump story) suggests the war is ending soon. Markets will probably continue to celebrate over the next several weeks, but tomorrow may be weaker than expected.
 
Tuesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.
 
Futures are mixed as I am writing this.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Looks like we did see a “Turning Tuesday.” I may add to stocks soon, but perhaps not tomorrow.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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