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Thursday, June 11, 2026

PPI … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

“It was Thomas Edison who brought us electricity, not the Sierra Club. It was the Wright brothers who got us off the ground, not the Federal Aviation Administration. It was Henry Ford who ended the isolation of millions of Americans by making the automobile affordable, not Ralph Nader. Those who have helped the poor the most have not been those who have gone around loudly expressing 'compassion' for the poor, but those who found ways to make industry more productive and distribution more efficient, so that the poor of today can afford things that the affluent of yesterday could only dream about.”
― Thomas Sowell

PPI (CNBC)
“The producer price index, a measure of final demand costs, increased a seasonally adjusted 1.1% on the month, putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at 6.5%.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/producer-price-index-may-2026-.html

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment aid for the week ending June 6 rose by 4,000 to 229,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That’s the most since early February, before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, but still considered a healthy level.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-a529f2c33e5048e79ffca8a07247a192

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.8% to 7394.
-VIX declined about 13% to 19.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.459% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -15 to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations declined, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers. I’d like to see the 10-dMA of the Indicator Spread turn higher – that would be a good bullish sign.

Breadth still remains weak. Over the last 10-days, more issues have gone down on the NYSE than have gone up. In addition, I have an indicator that compares breadth to the S&P 500; the Index is too far ahead of breadth so, it too is still bearish.

Thursday, the S&P 500 pulled within 2.8% of last week’s all-time high and is now 2.3% above its 50-dMA.

There were some improvements in internals when we look at the low yesterday compared to the prior low on Friday, 5 June. That can mark a bottom, but the improvements were not enough to signal a buy for me. The catch is that small declines give small signals so we may have made a technical bottom yesterday. Still, I suspect today’s move was Trump-driven since the bounce occurred after he announced a postponement of the bombing planned for Thursday night.

As I noted yesterday, since I think we are close to an end of this decline, I’ll probably wind up holding trading positions a bit longer. I can always sell the positions; take the tax-loss and replace them with other issues that may produce similar gains when indicators improve.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish/neutral in the short-term, but I suspect we are closer to a bottom than the top. We’ll see.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, June 10, 2026

CPI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

IRAN HEATS UP AGAIN (CNN – 7:41pm)
“The US military has launched strikes “against multiple targets in Iran,” US Central Command said in a statement. It framed the latest operation as in response to “Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression.” Tehran’s response: Iran’s military said the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to all vessels “effective immediately”… Story at…
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/09/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel

CPI (Fox Business)
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Wednesday that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.5% from a month ago and is 4.2% higher than a year ago. The annual figure is the highest since April 2023…The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Wednesday that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.5% from a month ago and is 4.2% higher than a year ago.” Story at…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-may-2026

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 1.6% to 7267.
-VIX rose about 12% to 22.22.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.568% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -6 to -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations declined, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

Bollinger Bands are oversold, but RSI is not. RSI is close to oversold. When both Bollinger Bands and RSI are oversold, investors may decide this decline has gone far enough. I don’t know. I have several other indicators still giving top-warnings: (1) Breadth vs the S&P 500 (2) Money Trend (3) Fosback HI/Low Logic Indicator. We’ll have a battle of the indicators if those three remain bearish when Bollinger Bands and RSI are bullish.

Around noon, today’s breadth was looking positive (more advancers than decliners) and the McClellan Oscillator was positive. I was planning to sell my QLD position, but I never like to sell when breadth is improving, but that didn’t work out today. Breadth collapsed in the afternoon along with a lot of my indicators.

Breadth remains weak. Over the last 10-days, more issues have gone down on the NYSE than have gone up. In addition, I have an indicator that compares breadth to the S&P 500; the Index is too far ahead of breadth so, it too is bearish.

The S&P 500 has fallen 3.1% from last week’s all-time high. The S&P 500 is 0.7% above its 50-dMA and 5.7% above its 200-dMA. The 50-day is usually around the lower trend line and that’s a likely spot where this weakness will end.

Since I think we are close to an end of this decline, I’ll probably wind up holding trading positions a bit longer. I can always sell the positions; take the tax-loss and replace them with other issues that may produce similar gains when indicators improve.

Could this be the start of a big decline? That’s always possible, but we saw good breadth at the top so I don’t see a big decline on the horizon. Data at the top suggested that if we did see a decline, it would be less than 10%.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish in the short-term, but I suspect we are closer to a bottom than the top. We’ll see.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Business Optimism … Existing Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

A SIGNAL THAT IS NEVER WRONG (Benzinga)
“The S&P 500 just had one of the best two-month rallies ever, as it was up 19.5% in two months on 5/29/06.”
While the index recently suffered a sharp drop on Friday—marking its worst single day of the year so far—market historians urge investors to look at the bigger picture. Following such a 19% rally over two months, stocks were “never lower 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or a year later.” Story at…
S&P 500 just triggered a signal that has never failed since 1950—Ryan Detrick says 'my oh my'

NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM
Business Optimism Index fell 0.6 points in May to 95.3, remaining below its 52-year average of 98.0…“Despite the enthusiasm around AI, the overall picture is divided. More small business owners are struggling with significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices, which are more challenging for small businesses to pass on to their customers compared to their larger corporate competitors.” Report at…
https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-small-businesses-report-reduced-optimism/

EXISTING HOME SALES (NAR)
“Existing-home sales increased by 3.2% month-over-month and year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales report.” Report at…
https://www.nar.realtor/press-releases/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-3-2-increase-in-may

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 7387.
-VIX rose about 5% to 19.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.530% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Friday, I drew the lower trend line on the “Summary of 50 Indicator Spread” chart where it seemed to make sense and I am showing it there again today. It appeared to me that the big drop on Friday took the S&P 500 down to its lower trend line. Checking the 50-dMA for the Index, we note that the S&P 500 is 2.7% above its 50-dMA. That is usually around the lower trend line, so I may have been too optimistic. Now it looks like further declines are possible, at least down to the 50-day.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a mildly BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations declined, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

Today, Tuesday, was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.
The Bearish Outside Reversal signal remains in place until the S&P 500 closes above the high on the Reversal Day.

There was another Hindenburg Omen, Tuesday.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. We’ve seen 10 in the last 21 trading-session. So, the Omens are a concern.

The Short-term Fosback Hi/Low Logic Index is now issuing a sell signal. Both new-52-week highs and 52-week lows have been elevated. This indicator is similar to the Hindenburg.

Interestingly, the McClellan Oscillator improved a lot today due to today’s positive breadth. 64% of issues on the NYSE advanced today and the Oscillator improved to about -20. If it get’s above zero, at least 3 indicators (McClellan Oscillator, Hindenburg, Fosback Hi-Lo Index) will switch from bearish to bullish.

Still, Breadth has been weak. Over the last 10-days, more issues have gone down on the NYSE than have gone up. In addition, I have an indicator that compares breadth to the S&P 500; the Index is too far ahead of breadth so, it too is bearish.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral – indicators are on edge. Let’s see where we go.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, June 8, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

SILENCING WHISTLE BLOWERS (Daily Caller)
“Senior Minnesota state officials allegedly hired outside investigators to silence whistleblowers in an attempt to cover up widespread state social services fraud, a House committee report released Monday found.
A 200-page staff report by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform found that Democrat Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s state administration intimidated and retaliated against state employees who raised concerns about fraud, soliciting private investigators to reveal employees’ personal details.” Story at…
Tim Walz’s staff hired private investigators to silence fraud whistleblowers, committee report finds
The Daily Caller can be biased so here’s a copy of the report so you can read it for yourself. Report at…
https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/MN-Fraud-Final-Staff-Report.pdf

FOOD STAMP PROGRAM (WSJ – excerpt)
“The Trump Administration’s Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins noted recently that “we now have moved 4.3 million Americans off of the food stamp program,” known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. The press reaction is that Republicans in their big budget bill last year imposed onerous requirements and are depriving the vulnerable of grocery help.
But the food-stamp program is now returning to the levels of the bad old days of . . . 2019…Mark the food-stamp progress as a Trump win for the country that never would have happened if today’s Democrats were in power.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-food-stamp-rolls-declinehurray-c7b4e5e1
My cmt: This is probably the work of deficit hawks in Congress rather than Trump - I don’t give him much credit here. Bottom line: The pandemic is over - no need to keep the pandemic rules in place.
I’ve told this story before, but my wife was a teacher. She had two girls in her class who always sat together. They were doing virtually nothing in her class. She admonished them and suggested they would need an education to get a job. One of them laughed and said, "We don’t need to study – we just turned 18; we’re going on welfare." This just reinforces that welfare has become so inflated that it is now a career choice.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7406.
-VIX declined about 12% to 18.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.568% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

Today’s daily chart did not look too good. After the big open today, I had hoped to see a chart that closed higher. Worse, today’s new-lows outpaced new-highs and declining-volume exceeded advancing-volume. Those are not stats that build confidence for the bulls.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was unchanged, a NEUTRAL sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

Monday there was another Hindenburg Omen.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. We’ve seen 10 in the last 20 trading-session. So, the Omens are a concern.

The Short-term Fosback Hi/Low Logic Index is also very close to issuing a sell signal. Both new-52-week highs and 52-week lows have been elevated.
“Under normal conditions, either a substantial number of stocks establish new annual highs or a large number set new lows – but not both. As the Logic Index is the lesser of the two percentages, high readings are therefore difficult to achieve. When the Index attains a new high level, it indicates that the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence – many stocks establishing new highs and many setting new lows as well. Such divergence is not usually conducive to future rising stock prices…” – Norman Fosback.

Breadth is also failing. Over the last 10-days, more issues have gone down on the NYSE than have gone up. In addition, I have an indicator that compares breadth to the S&P 500; the Index is too far ahead of breadth so, it too is bearish.

At this point, I’ll watch price action and we’ll see if indicators improve. I wrote that I may have bought too quickly on Friday – I still have that concern.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, June 5, 2026

Payrolls / Unemployment Rate … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +3 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was unchanged, a NEUTRAL sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

I said yesterday, “I may sell my QLD position. I have a profit now, but that may evaporate.” Today, yes, profits are very gone, but I was a buyer today rather than a seller.

Friday, was a huge down-day and my Panic Indicator signaled. This is an interesting indicator; it is Bearish if we see it at a top, and Bullish at a bottom. The last time we saw it was 37-days into the 9% correction, about 2% before the bottom on 30 March. Before that, the Panic Indicator warned on 10 October; the S&P 500 moved up after that so the indicator wasn’t giving a good signal, although a 5% pullback did start 2-weeks later. The Panic Indicator signaled a buy on 1 August at the end of a small decline.

I am hoping that that’s what we saw today, so that’s why I was a buyer. In addition, Friday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost always occur on/or near Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms. We haven’t seen enough of a pullback to discuss a bottom.

We also note that the bearish rising wedge I mentioned yesterday has vanished, another reason to be more bullish.

I may have acted too quickly by buying today. I never act on one indicator, but I did today – perhaps I’m too complacent. (Never say never.) We’ll see…

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, but perhaps not cautious enough this time.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

1930’s AGAIN? (Benzinga)
“Ray Dalio said the United States has crossed a debt threshold from which it cannot return, and the Federal Reserve may soon be forced into a 1930s-style policy of holding interest rates artificially low.
Speaking at the Forbes Iconoclast Summit, the Bridgewater Associates founder told Bloomberg’s Dani Burger that $7 trillion in federal spending against $5 trillion in revenue is squeezing the economy ‘like plaque in the arteries.’ … Dalio compared the likely outcome to financial repression, where the Treasury and Fed coordinate to suppress yields, often alongside higher taxation and inflation.” Story at…
Ray Dalio says US is 'past the point of no return' on debt, sees 1930s-style 'financial repression' coming

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP news)
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 30 increased by 13,000 to 225,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That’s the most since early February, before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, but still a historically low level.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-8581eb0c5876003c85d30a44ca7b35e9

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7584.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.40.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.475% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +10 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.

While the streak of 9 consecutive up-days has ended, we still note that 9-days of the 10-days have been up. That remains a lofty number that still suggests a down-day.
This is one of the bear indicators now in place.

The McClellan Oscillator is negative so that brings back the Hindenburg warning. (It remains in place 30-days except when the Oscillator is positive.)

There is a bearish rising wedge pattern in place (see the above Summary of 50 Indicator Spread Chart), but I am not impressed and it doesn’t seem to be predicting a big decline.

“The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows… wedges definitely slope up and have a bearish bias.” – Investopedia.

There are bullish signs too.

Looking at sentiment numbers, we see that retail-traders (mom and pop) continue betting more to the bear side now and the sentiment indicator switched from neutral to bullish. That sets the table for more gains, but we still expect a down-day or two in the near future. We finally got a down day yesterday so it will be interesting to see how the traders are positioned when the numbers come in late tonight.

I may sell my QLD position. I have a profit now, but that may evaporate tomorrow if we see declines.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish, but markets are still due for a pause. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) has been the pattern and it may start up again so the pause may be short – we’ll see.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined t HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.