Navigate the Stock Market

Friday, August 28, 2026

Fed Jackson Hole Speech … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

VIVA LA DSA REVOLUTION (WSJ – Excerpt)
“Abolishing the Senate and getting rid of the presidency are only a few things on the list…Socialism is a gateway drug. Mr. Fetterman worries Democrats are “drifting firmly into communism.” Drifting? Let’s ask the horse’s mouth: A top DSA leader, David Jenkins, said the quiet part out loud, “Our goal is liberation. Our goal is communism.” The socialist candidate for Wisconsin governor who wants to cancel Thanksgiving, Francesca Hong, raised money with “influencer” Hasan Piker, who likes to dress as Chairman Mao. That’s pretty black and white, and red all over. Where is sanity?” – Andy Kessler, author of Inside View, a column for The Wall Street Journal on technology and markets and where they intersect with culture. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/viva-la-dsa-revolution-c1df0d6e

JACKSON HOLE SPEECH (CNBC)
“[Fed chair Kevin] Warsh at Jackson Hole gave a more hawkish reading of the economy than he had in July. He said elevated prices needed to be the Fed’s main focus and described financial conditions as not being broadly restrictive, a change from his July news conference, when he said they were uneven…Inflation is running above our 2 percent target,” he said.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/kevin-warsh-jackson-hole-fed-inflation-rate-hike.html
My cmt: FedWatch, by CME Group, now has a 60% chance of a rate hike in September at the next Fed meeting.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 7712.
-VIX slipped about 0.6% to 14.43.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.73% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -4 to -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a slightly BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Friday there was a Bollinger Squeeze.
“A Bollinger Band Squeeze is a technical analysis pattern that happens when the upper and lower [Bollinger] bands come close together, signaling a period of low market volatility that often precedes an explosive price breakout…To determine breakout direction, Bollinger suggests that it is necessary to look to other indicators…
If there is a positive divergence—that is, if indicators are heading upward while price is heading down or neutral—it is a bullish sign. For further confirmation, look for volume to build on up days. On the other hand, if price is moving higher but the indicators are showing negative divergence, look for a downside breakout—especially if there have been increasing volume spikes on down days. Another indication of breakout direction is the way the bands move on expansion. When a powerful trend is born, the resulting explosive volatility increase is often so great that the lower band will turn downward in an upside break, or the upper band will turn higher in a downside breakout.” - Investopedia.

My indicators do not mirror the ones that Bollinger recommended. The only one we have in common was RSI and it is not giving a strong signal either way. Overall, my indicators have been trending down so a break down is slightly more likely than a breakout higher.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral until conditions change.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, August 27, 2026

Jobless Claims … KC Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -9 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

The below “10-dMA of %-ETFs Up” chart is a simple indicator. I track 15 ETFs for momentum daily as shown in the ETF Momentum chart below. They are a rough cross section of the stock market. I note whether the ETFs were up or down on the day and then whether they have been up or down over the last 10-days. >55% is bullish; <45% is bearish.

The red line on the chart is the 10-dMA of the percentage of ETFs that were up over the 2-week period. The S&P 500 is the daily value (black line).
As one would expect, the ETFs tend to track the S&P 500 closely, but often with a lag due to the 10-day average. Now the ETFs are falling while the S&P 500 is powering higher. I suspect we have the lag effect now, but this indicator is giving a bearish sign since only 49% of the ETFs have been positive over the last 2-weeks. If that trend continues it will be cause for alarm.

For now, I am not too worried; if breadth improves in the overall market, other indicators should improve quickly. This one should improve as ETFs catch up.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral until we see indicators improve.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

GDP … PCE Prices … Durable Goods … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

“Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is simply the total amount of spending in an economy. GDP, as currently measured, does not distinguish between “good” spending and “bad” spending. GDP does not distinguish between consumption spending and investment spending. GDP also does not distinguish whether spending is generated by existing wealth, by going into debt temporarily, or by going into debt permanently. In this world, every dollar spent on education or new means of production, is counted the same as every dollar spent on epic bachelor parties and video games.” – Michael Lebowitz, Real Investment Advice

GDP (WSJ)
“The U.S. economy grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2026, the Commerce Department said in an updated estimate published Wednesday, unchanged from the initial report published last month.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-2q-gdp-growth-unchanged-at-1-5-in-second-estimate-9358397e

PCE PRICES (CNBC)
“Prices consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose slightly in July, according to the Federal Reserve’s main inflation gauge. The personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed uses as its preferred forecasting tool, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.7% [slightly higher than forecast] ...stripping out volatile food and energy costs, core PCE posted respective gains of 0.2% and 3.3%, in line with forecasts.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/26/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-shows-core-prices-rose-3point3percent-annually-in-july.html

DURABLE GOODS (WSJ)
“Demand for U.S. durable goods jumped more than expected in July, according to data published by the Commerce Department.
Total orders for durable goods—which comprise goods meant to last three years or more—increased in July by 1.1%...” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-durable-goods-orders-rose-more-than-expected-in-july-3d0e2c90

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped about a point to about 0.3% to 7676.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 15.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.647% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Indicators reversed back down, but the news was good after the close.

Nvidia reported earnings as expected – 100% gain in revenues – unbelievable! The markets liked the news and NVDA was up 4% in after-hours trading. NASDAQ futures are up 1% as I write this, so I think this is the fuel needed for markets to move higher and make new-highs.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral until we see indicators improve.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)


My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

New Home Sales … Consumer Confidence … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^® decreased by 0.8 points to 89.4 (1985=100) in August, down from 90.2 in July…’Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,’ said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board…Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were mildly positive. Perceptions of the current labor market improved, reversing three months of moderate decline. Looking ahead, consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and the labor market over the next six months. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.’” Report at…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/

NEW HOME SALES (Realtor.com)
“Prices for newly built homes have hit their lowest level in five years, as homebuilders continue to grapple with weak buyer demand, newly released data shows…Meanwhile, contract signings for newly built homes plunged 10.5% in July from the prior month…The Census Bureau's latest new residential construction report found that single-family housing starts in July were down 9.9% from June and 15.7% lower than a year earlier.” Story at…
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/new-home-prices-falling-sales-census-july-2026/

RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING (Richmond Federal Reserve)
“Fifth District manufacturing activity changed little in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased only slightly…Manufacturing firms remained relatively optimistic about the next six months, with the future indexes for shipments and new orders remaining firmly in positive territory and the employment expectations index rising to 20 in August from 15 in July.” Report at…
https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/business_surveys/manufacturing

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7677.
-VIX slipped about 2.5% to 15.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.633% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -8 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Breadth improved today; the McClellan Oscillator is now just barely negative. New-high/New Lows weren’t strong, but they were good enough to pull up some indicators.

The Index is 1.7% above its 50-dMA as of today’s close. It still seems like there is enough market angst to send the S&P 500 down to its 50-day level. The chart seems to be suggesting otherwise – the Index is drifting higher on the chart.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, but watching closely. Indicators are not currently suggesting it’s time to panic; but according to some, the bond market is.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, August 24, 2026

National Activity Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

TARIFF DEAL FAILS – HERE WE GO AGAIN – TRUMP TRUTH SOCIAL POSTS (CNBC)
“Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post, accusing the longtime trading partner of hurting U.S. farmers through its own tariff policies. “Not sustainable, and NOT ANYMORE!” he wrote. “On January First, 2027, Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large and small, Automotive Parts, and Steel, will be increased to 50%.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/24/trump-canada-auto-tariffs-trade-war.html

NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Chicago Federal Reserve)
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.08 in July from +0.06 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June, and two categories made negative contributions in July. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.04 in July from +0.01 in June…A zero value for the CFNAI has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.” Report at…
https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 7653.
-VIX rose about 5% to 15.85.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.716% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Not much different than Friday’s note except that indicators declined:

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -1 to -8 (8 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Another one Monday! There have been 6 Hindenburg Omens in the last 13 sessions. In addition, the short-term Fosback Hi/Low Logic Indicator remains bearish as it has been for the last 7 sessions.

Breadth remains weak, but not drastically so. A lot of New-high/New Low indicators are negative including the McClellan Oscillator.

Back in early August, the downturn reversed when the lower Bollinger Band was breached. Now, the lower Bollinger Band on the S&P 500 is 7391, about 3.5% below today’s close. Another level of support for the S&P 500 is its 50-dMA (around the lower trendline).

The Index is 1.4% above its 50-dMA as of today’s close. A big drop, say about 1% or more, would signal a retreat near the lower trendline (and the 50-dMA). That would probably generate some dip buying.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, but watching closely. Indicators are not currently suggesting it’s time to panic; but according to some, the bond market is.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, August 21, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

PLANT SEEDS OF FREEDOM (WSJ Letters)
“Andy Kessler hit the nail on the head when he said that the socialism’s message of free stuff is being poured into the “ears of young, naive, economically illiterate, free-riding, over-degreed” voters (“Viva la DSA Revolution!,” Inside View, Aug. 10).
When professors teach that the capitalist system is a problem and ignore the horrible history of socialism and communist experiments around the world, this is what you get. The message of free stuff for all might be attracting votes, but voters should know it comes at the expense of freedom and economic growth. The U.S. is the best economy on the planet—let’s not permit socialism to undermine it.”
Jack Kent Letter to Editor, WSJ. From…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/plant-the-seeds-of-freedom-5e8326f0?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos21

BOND ROUT WON’T END SOON (WSJ)
“A selloff in global bonds is driving up borrowing costs for governments, businesses and families across the developed world. Wall Street sees no end in sight.
Bond yields are at 19-year highs, and investors are blaming the rout on everything from the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict, which has stoked inflation worries, to the deluge of tech-company bonds vying for debt funds’ cash. They are also anxious about budget deficits and a lack of clarity from a new Federal Reserve chairman…So far, the selloff has been limited to bonds. Stocks are hovering near record highs and corporate earnings are still robust—signs that higher interest payments aren’t squeezing economic growth…’The issue is not so much the rising interest rates,’ said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute. ‘The issue is the deficit. If we can only be concerned about one thing, that one thing should be the 10-year deficit outlook.’” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/bonds-are-getting-hammered-and-wall-street-says-the-rout-wont-end-anytime-soon-895e0ad8?mod=djem10point

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7674.
-VIX declined about 6% to 15.13.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.736% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators Improved from -6 to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Good to see indicators improve, but there are still significant bear signs. There have been 5 Hindenburg Omens in the last 12 sessions. In addition, the short-term Fosback Hi/Low Logic Indicator has been bearish the last 6 sessions.

Breadth is weak but not drastically so. A lot of New-high/New Low indicators are negative including the McClellan Oscillator.

We still can’t say the weakness is over it could be, but I’d like more evidence than just today’s bounce higher.

Back in early August, the downturn reversed when the lower Bollinger Band was breached. Now, the lower Bollinger Band on the S&P 500 is 7325, about 4% below today’s close. That number varies and is likely to decline if markets continue down. Another level of support for the S&P 500 is its 50-dMA (around the lower trendline).

The Index is 1.8% above its 50-dMA as of today’s close. So, the question is; will the dip buyers move in around the lower trendline? Maybe they did today. We’ll see…

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, but watching closely. Indicators are not currently suggesting it’s time to panic; but according to some, the bond market is.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals IMPROVED to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)