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Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Business Optimism … Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

A FACEBOOK POST – THE DEAL WITH PUTIN
“A Republican is now leading the charge to stop Donald Trump's fuel deal with Vladimir Putin — and he's not asking leadership for permission.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, says he'll introduce the Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act to bar U.S. purchases of Russian oil. To get around Speaker Mike Johnson, he's turning to a discharge petition — the maneuver that forces a floor vote the moment 218 members sign on, no matter what GOP leaders want. "It will be forced to the Floor via discharge and it will pass overwhelmingly," he wrote. Fellow Republican Rep. Don Bacon has already agreed to sign.
Here's the deal they're trying to stop. Trump announced Friday that Russia would immediately ship more than 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and global markets, pitching it as a way to bring fuel prices down. Energy analysts doubt it will move prices much — but it could funnel fresh cash straight into Putin's war machine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the arrangement neither fair nor honest and said it amounts to a gift to Putin. Trump's answer was to suggest Ukraine should replace Zelensky altogether.
This isn't the first time Fitzpatrick and Bacon have broken ranks — earlier this year they forced a House vote on Ukraine aid and Russia sanctions, and it passed. They now join a growing group of Republicans, including former VP Mike Pence, openly rejecting a deal that rewards the man still bombing Ukrainian cities.
The question now is simple: will 218 members put country over party?” From Democracy Daily,
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61591287524334

NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“Small business optimism stayed near the long-term average in September as Main Street owners remain uncertain about business conditions,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Small business owners are proceeding with caution as they interpret how rising costs, interest rates, and the difficulty in finding qualified employees are impacting their business.” Report at…
https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-uncertainty-grows-and-optimism-fades-slightly-on-main-street-in-september/

EXISITING HOME SALES (NAR)
"Existing-home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month and decreased by 2.2% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS^® Existing-Home Sales report…’Despite the small monthly gain on a seasonally adjusted basis, August and September marked the two slowest months for home sales this year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home. Higher inventory and lengthening days on market give buyers improved negotiating power. Home sellers need to be realistic about local market conditions, which could require price discounts and other incentives to attract buyers,’ Yun said.” Report at…
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-increased-1-5-in-september-according-to-nar-report

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 2pts to 7805.
-VIX rose about 0.4% to 15.27.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 5.215% (compared to about this time Friday).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +4 to +6 (6 More Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

As of today, more than half of the issues on the NYSE have been advancing. That’s a good sign. We need to see breadth continue to advance. The McClellan Oscillator, another breadth indicator, remained Bullish.

The Bearish Wedge pattern remains. We need to see the S&P 500 break thru the upper, horizontal, red-line in the above chart to feel more comfortable. The chart doesn’t predict a bearish failure – that would occur if the Index falls below the lower trendline - so we are waiting to see where the price action goes. Price trumps indicators.

We continue to watch indicators, but price is more important now. The S&P 500 will break out of its rising wedge; will it be higher of lower? Indicators are hinting perhaps higher, but the signal is not very strong.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but concerned.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, October 12, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +3 to +4 (4 More Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations rose, a BULLISH sign.

We are watching the chart where we see a possible Bearish Wedge pattern. I say possible because the S&P 500 may simply move higher and break thru the upper, horizontal dashed, red-line in the above chart. The chart doesn’t predict a bearish failure yet. An attempt at all-time highs has only been rejected twice recently. I’d like to see the pattern play out longer before we can accept it, but it is definitely a pattern to watch. The S&P 500 needs to break significantly above the 7820 area before we can cancel the Bearish Wedge pattern.

Monday there was more Low volume on the NYSE, about 23% below the monthly average. This begs the question: Are we running out of buyers? It’s possible, but too early to tell.

The McClellan Oscillator remained Bullish; other breadth indicators remain weak, but they are improving.

We continue to watch indicators.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but concerned.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, October 9, 2026

Sentiment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -1 to +3 (3 More Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations rose, a BULLISH sign.

It’s good to see indicators improving, but we’d like to see them in the bullish zone. Now we are watching the chart where we see a possible Bearish Wedge pattern. I say possible because the S&P 500 may simply move higher and break thru the upper, horizontal dashed, red-line in the above chart. The chart doesn’t predict a bearish failure yet. An attempt at all-time highs has only been rejected twice recently. I’d like to see the pattern play out longer before we can accept it, but it is definitely a pattern to watch.

Here’s a description and chart of a bearish rising wedge example:

There are other concerns.

Friday there was Low volume on the NYSE, about 12% below the monthly average. This begs the question: Are we running out of buyers? It’s possible, but too early to tell.

The S&P 500 closed within a few points of an all-time high Friday, but there were only 41 new highs. That’s a weak number that still supports the possibility of a correction> 10%.

On a more positive note: The McClellan Oscillator improved to Bullish although other breadth indicators remain weak.

We continue to watch indicators.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but concerned.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

BUSY DAY TODAY!

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

JOBLESS CLAIMS (WSJ)
U.S. jobless claims decreased for the fifth week in a row as employers continue to keep their workforce levels static. The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits was 197,000 in the week through Oct. 3, 2,000 lower than the revised 199,000 reported a week earlier…” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/u-s-jobless-claims-slide-yet-again-2d927e44

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7765.
-VIX rose about 2% to 15.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 5.225% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -6 to -1 (1 More Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was flat a NEUTRAL sign.

NOT MUCH DIFFERENT TODAY…
Breadth continues to be poor. The McClellan Oscillator remains bearish, another sign of bad breadth. The weak breadth at the all-time high does suggest that if we do have a correction, it is likely to be greater than 10%. As usual, we need more information.

A down day doesn’t tell us much. We need to see another new-high on the Index and hope that internals will improve. That would be a good sign especially if breadth measures suggest a broadening rally. There was some improvement in the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE (one my breadth measures).

We continue to watch indicators.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral until we see improvement in indicators; weak indicators may send us to bear mode.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, October 7, 2026

FED Minutes … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from zero to -6 (6 More Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign.

Breadth continues to be poor. More than half of the issues on the NYSE have been down over every time frame we consider – 10, 20 ,50, 100 and 150-days. The McClellan Oscillator reversed to the bearish side today, another sign of bad breadth. The narrow market sets up the possibility of a correction, but doesn’t guarantee it. The weak breadth at the all-time high does suggest that if we do have a correction, it is likely to be greater than 10%. As usual, we need more information.

A down day doesn’t tell us much. We need to see another new-high on the Index and hope that internals will improve. That would be a good sign especially if breadth measures suggest a broadening rally.

We continue to watch indicators.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral until we see improvement in indicators; weak indicators may send us to bear mode.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Reduced Stock Holdings

Based on yesterday’s weak internals at the all-time high, I sold QLD and reduced my position in NVDA today. I don’t want to hold leveraged positions (2x Nasdaq 100 - QLD) if there are signs of a correction. Nvidia is also a high Beta position. (High Beta means it is more volatile than the S&P 500.)

To be clear, there are signs of a correction, but I am not calling for a correction yet. Indicators are Neutral to slightly bearish as of mid-day, Wednesday. I am choosing caution. If conditions improve, I’ll re-establish positions.

I am now probably 50-55% invested in stocks.

Tuesday, October 6, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

From...

https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/

LETTERS (WSJ)

“Bob Greene’s op-ed “The Most Important People in an Election” (Sept. 28) quotes former Senator Bob Dole in a Chicago coffee shop, saying, “If you could figure out what the people in here are thinking right now, I bet not a one of them is thinking about politics.” I believe Congress, together with the executive branch, is the most wasteful, dysfunctional and incompetent organization on earth.
Look at the way Republicans and Democrats treat each other. They call each other names, accuse each other of the nastiest things, try to undermine and embarrass each other at every turn.
Americans have more important things to think about—family, work, friends, community. They have better things to do than waste time thinking about an organization where the majority of politicians seem like they’re there to enrich themselves at the expense of the taxpayer and keep the country divided.
Maybe term limits would help change the environment. I don’t know. I’m too busy focusing on what’s important and in my control.” - Peter J. Schmole, letter to editor, WSJ at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/americans-have-better-things-to-think-about-33adee40?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos9

HUSSMAN COMMENTARY (Hussman Funds)
“The most aggressive compromise, in my view, is to assume that the average margins of the past decade will be permanent. I don’t actually recommend that compromise, but we can “fix” the largest outliers of recent years by adjusting MarketCap/GVA by the 10-year average nonfinancial profit margin, which gives us a MarketCap/GVA version of Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE).
The chart below shows the mapping between this adjusted measure, which I’ve dubbed GVA_PE10, and actual subsequent S&P 500 12-year average annual nominal total returns. The recent record high was 26, while the historical norm associated with subsequent 10% annual S&P 500 returns is less than 11. That comparison gives us a narrower baseline market risk estimate of a potential 58% loss from current levels over the completion of this market cycle.” – John Hussman, PhD.

Chart and commentary from Hussman Funds at…
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc260908/
My cmt: A 58% Bear Market is very possible when this cycle ends. I have not seen signs of an end yet. We can hope that my indicators will give fair warning. They have in the past and even worked for the Covid bear market which was incredibly short. When a major trend reversal occurs, it may take years for the markets to bottom.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 7819.
-VIX declined about 3% to 15.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 5.301% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026. (Finally have a gain here. 2%, but it’s better than a loss. -10/5/26)
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026. (11% gain. - 10/5/26)

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -4 to zero (Equal Bear indicators & Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign.

The S&P 500 made a new, all-time high Tuesday, but indicators were disappointingly weak giving a Neutral signal in the bull-minus-bear spread. While indicators have improved, there is a cautionary sign here. I have no examples going back to 2022 when there was an all-time top for the S&P 500 without a bullish spread in the Bull-minus-Bears indicators. (My data for the 50-Indicator Spread only goes back to 2022.) Usually, the spread is very bullish at new highs. There was also bad news in other areas of breadth.

New, 52-week highs were low, Tuesday (less than 100) on the NYSE. I looked at New-Hi/New-Low data, specifically when there are fewer, new-highs at an all-time high. (I have more data here since historical new-high/new-low data was readily available on the internet, but those free websites have disappeared.) Low new-highs at an all-time high suggests a correction larger than 10% is coming. In the past 11 years there have been 5 instances when new-highs were signaling a >10% correction at an all-time high. This warning was correct in 4 out of the 5 cases. Once there was no correction. Corrections averaged 19% declines. Based on the above worrisome signs, we need to watch indicators and price action carefully.

It is possible that the weak indicators and weak new-high numbers are a holdover from the market weakness that has been going on since early August. If so, we may see these numbers improve and cancel the bearish signals. If breadth doesn’t improve, I’ll trim some stocks.

But, at least one breadth indicator did improve; the McClellan Oscillator turned bullish today.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral until we see improvement in indicators, especially in the new-high/new-low data..

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.