Navigate the Stock Market

Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Business Optimism … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2026/07/momentum-trading-dow-stocks-etfs-stock_01290379102.html

Then there’s 2000 Mules movie.
APOLOGY FOR ‘2000 MULES (WSJ)
“The movie “2000 Mules” was supposed to be the definitive proof that Democrats stole the 2020 election from President Trump. Last week [June 2024] it was quietly retracted. Salem Media Group, which co-produced this Trumpian fantasy mockumentary, ceased distribution of the film and issued an apology to Mark Andrews, one of the Georgia voters depicted as an illegal ballot “mule.”... Salem aims to shift blame to the film’s purported vote-fraud-fighting heroes. “We relied on representations made to us by Dinesh D’Souza and True the Vote, Inc. (‘TTV’) that the individuals depicted in the videos provided to us by TTV, including Mr. Andrews, illegally deposited ballots,” the company said. “We have learned that the Georgia Bureau of Investigation has cleared Mr. Andrews of illegal voting activity in connection with the event depicted.” – WSJ Editorial staff at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/2000-mules-salem-media-lawsuit-mark-andrews-dinesh-dsouza-2020-election-true-the-vote-1565ace0

“A conservative group has told a Georgia judge that it doesn't have evidence to support its claims of illegal ballot stuffing during the 2020 general election and a runoff two months later. Texas-based True the Vote filed complaints with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in 2021, including one in which it said it had obtained “a detailed account of coordinated efforts to collect and deposit ballots in drop boxes across metro Atlanta” during the November 2020 election and a January 2021 runoff.” Story at...
Conservative group tells judge it has no evidence to back its claims of Georgia ballot stuffing (msn.com)
My cmt: The movie, “2000 Mules” is a complete fake. The GBI (Georgia Bureau of Investigation) stated that the claims of ballot stuffing by True the Vote and the 2000 Mules movie were not supported by the evidence provided in the movie. The movie creators were sued by one of the individuals they claimed was stuffing ballots - they settled out of Court for a “significant” amount as reported by NPR. The crazy thing is that during the 2020 election, Georgia matched absentee ballot signatures to registrations and signatures on file. Even if there had been ballot stuffing, the fake ballots would have been thrown out due to lack of registration and/or non-matching signatures.

“About one-third of U.S. adults say they believe President Biden was not legitimately elected president of the United States in 2020, according a poll released this week [Jan 2024].” - The Hill at...
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4384619-one-third-of-americans-say-biden-election-illegitimate/
My cmt: 20% of Americans are complete idiots for believing there is a Government/Taylor Swift conspiracy to elect Joe Biden. Now 30% believe the Trump stolen election absurdity. Let’s hope the 20% crazies fall within the 30% nut-jobs otherwise we’d have to add them together. 50% of Americans can’t be idiots, can they?

"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin

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THE STOCK MARKET IS DOING SOMETHING OBSERVED ONLY ONCE BEFORE. HISTORY IS CLEAR ABOUT WHAT COMES NEXT (Motley Fool)

“In the late 1990s, internet companies were soaring. The CAPE [S&P 500 Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings] ratio surpassed 40 for the first time in history in January 1999, and a little over a year later, in March 2000, the dot-com bear market officially began…the CAPE ratio is climbing yet again. It's remained consistently above 40 since May of this year, which is only the second time in history that it's stayed above this threshold.
Now, this doesn't necessarily mean a market crash is around the corner. After all, 40 is not a magic number that automatically triggers a bear market. But when the CAPE ratio is this high, it suggests that stocks are unusually richly valued -- and investors may want to exercise caution.” Commentary at…
The stock market is doing something observed only once before. History is clear about what comes next.

FACTSET EARNINGS INSIGHT (FACTSET – 7 August 2026)
“At this late stage of the earnings season, the (blended) revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2 is 15.0%. If 15.0% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest revenue growth rate reported by the index since Q4 2021 (16.1%)…
…All eleven sectors are reporting (or have reported) year-over-year revenue growth. Five of these eleven sectors are reporting (or have reported) double-digit revenue growth led by the Energy, Information Technology, and Communication Services sectors.
…At this late stage of the Q2 earnings season, the S&P 500 is reporting impressive results, even if one excludes the unusually large EPS surprises reported by Alphabet and Amazon.com. Overall, both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above recent averages. As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the second quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. In addition, the index is also reporting its highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate since Q2 2021.” Report at…
https://www.factset.com > earningsinsight

NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“In spite of natural disasters and some economic uncertainty, small business owners across the nation are in a slightly upbeat mood about conditions ahead, according to today’s release of the monthly NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which increased 2.4 points in July to 99.8. A reading above its 52-year average of 98.0 and marking the highest level since August 2025.” Report at…
https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/optimism-index-u-s-news-ranking-show-the-power-of-good-policies/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 7728.
-VIX declined about 1% to 15.28.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.694% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +9 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Tuesday, there was another New Hindenburg Omen. “The Hindenburg Omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

As previously noted, Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. We’ve now seen 3 in the last 4 trading-session, and the 4 in the last 2 weeks. The Short-term Fosback High/Low Logic Index uses a similar methodology and it issued a sell signal Tuesday as well.

This may be signaling a retreat back to the lower trendline or it may be just a fake out. Tomorrow, we get the CPI for July and that can cause markets to be unsettled. Of course, the conflict in Iran also provides more confusion as traders try to guess the direction of oil prices.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish, but I may have to slip to a neutral (or worse) call if indicators continue down. Watching the CPI announcement Wednesday.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, August 10, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +17 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

McClellan Oscillator turned negative, but not by much. This is a breadth indicator. Most of the other breadth indicators are bullish.

Monday, there was another New Hindenburg Omen.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. We’ve seen 2 in the last 3 trading-session, but only the 3 in the last 2 weeks. The Short-term Fosback High/Low Logic Index uses a similar methodology and it is very close to issuing a sell signal. These indicators, and a couple of the other bearish ones, are based on 52-week, New-High/New-low data.

The Smart Money indicator is bearish.

While there are some bearish signs, at this point, bull signs still outpace bear signs by 2 to 1 so no point in getting too worried.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m remain bullish, watching markets climb the wall of worry.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, August 7, 2026

Payroll Report … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

THE FILIBUSTER DESTROYED DEBATE (WSJ Letters)
“Sen. John Curtis, my colleague from Utah, proves reasonable in defending Senate norms and procedure in his op-ed “I Won’t Change the Filibuster” (July 31). However, Americans should understand how abuse of the filibuster has killed real debate, negotiation and results. Keeping the status quo can’t solve this crisis... In 1964 opponents of the Civil Rights Act attempted to stop the legislation with a filibuster. The bill’s supporters were initially far short of the 67 votes needed to break the filibuster. But by forcing open debate, the Senate finally forced an answer on Jim Crow.
Today, that kind of debate never happens. We don’t force compromise. We don’t lock ourselves in a room to negotiate until we have a deal. The filibuster is a muscle we never exercise. It has atrophied. Senators have lost the implicit understanding that a debate needs to happen before it can end. This legislative body needs to deliver results, not fail while adhering to a prohibitive process. We should end the filibuster and pass the SAVE America Act—or require debate until exhaustion or satisfaction.” - Sen. Rick Scott (R., Fla.) letter to the WSJ.

My cmt: The filibuster requires 60 votes to end debate and results in a more moderate Senate. The rule gives the minority party more power. Without the filibuster, laws will radically change with every new administration when the Senate and President are in the same party.
Keeping the filibuster far outweighs the perceived benefits of passing the SAVE Act. The SAVE act solves problems that are mostly based on Trump’s stolen election story, i.e., it solves problems that don’t exist.
As Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski wrote: “…the SAVE America Act isn’t a simple fix to safeguard elections, as proponents claim. It would impose costly new barriers and prevent some, perhaps many, from voting, while also creating chaos before the November elections…”

PAYROLL REPORT (CNBC)
“The U.S. economy saw an unexpected declined in jobs during July while the unemployment rate edged lower, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday in a snapshot that showed a slowing employment picture.
Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 23,000 for the month…” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jobs-report-july-2026.html
My cmt: A tightening labor market suggests no rate hike by the Fed. For now, bad news is good news.

FAUCI IN CONTEMPT (WSJ)
“A Republican-led Senate committee voted Thursday to hold Dr. Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress for refusing to answer lawmakers’ questions about his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, escalating a yearslong GOP effort to scrutinize one of the nation’s top former health officials…Senators voted 8-5 on the resolution, along party lines, which was brought by the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee’s chairman, Sen. Rand Paul (R., Ky.). Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/senate-panel-votes-to-hold-fauci-in-contempt-for-refusing-to-answer-questions-974dde4c
My comment: Politicians seem to support the Constitution only when it works in their favor.

Government employees can plead the Fifth and refuse to answer questions, but they can also be fired for failing to answer. (During my 35-year career in Government service, I was involved in several investigations. In some cases, criminal liability was in question, e.g., investigation of theft.) Fauci was a government employee, but not now. I question attempts to hold Fauci in contempt.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 7758.
-VIX declined about 2% to 14.90.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.649% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +14 to +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

The indicators are overwhelmingly bullish, but there were some troubling signs. The number of new 52-week highs at today’s new all-time high for the S&P 500 was weak and on the borderline of issuing a concerning warning. There were only 84 new, 52-week highs. By itself, it suggests a correction of greater than 10% is on the horizon. In addition, there was almost a new Hindenburg Omen. I say “almost” because the McClellan Oscillator turned bullish and that blocks the Hindenburg warning.

The positive Oscillator also suggests that a correction is not currently in sight as does the indicator spread – we won’t see a correction with a bullish spread of +17 for the 50-Indicator Spread. That doesn’t mean that it couldn’t go south in a hurry if the Iran conflict isn’t satisfactorily resolved.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish, watching markets climb the wall of worry.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, August 6, 2026

Jobless Claims … Productivity … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

JUDGES SUE OVER TRUMP’S SLUSH FUND (Raw Story)
“Thirty-five former federal judges are fighting to preserve sanctions against President Donald Trump's legal team over what a federal court found was a "collusive" IRS lawsuit used to funnel $1.776 billion in taxpayer money to his allies.
U.S. District Judge Kathleen Williams, an Obama appointee in Miami, issued a 56-page ruling on July 13 finding that Trump had acted in "bad faith" and filed the lawsuit for an "improper purpose." She sanctioned his attorneys and barred all parties from ever citing the deal as a legitimate settlement in any official proceeding….
"Plaintiffs acted in bad faith and for an improper purpose by 'collusively filing a lawsuit with claims subject to multiple dispositive defenses solely to provide cover for a collusive settlement,'" the judges wrote, citing Williams' ruling…
…The deal that followed established a $1.776 billion fund for Trump's allies and shielded Trump, his sons, and the Trump Organization from future IRS tax audits.” Story at…
Trump scheme at risk as 35 ex-federal judges intervene over 'collusive' conduct
My cmt: Reports are that the fund has been scrapped. Trump still supports it and may try to bring it back next year.

JOBLESS CLAIMS / PRODUCTIVITY (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, while layoffs dropped to a two-year low in July, consistent with a stable labor market…worker productivity grew faster than expected in the second quarter, curbing gains in labor costs…Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000 for the week ended August 1…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/us-weekly-jobless-claims-edge-up-planned-layoffs-decline-july-2026-08-06/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7710.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.15. (About 20% of the time VIX and S&P 500 move in the same direction; a CNBC pundit suggested recently that VIX is falling due to strong call-buying {a bet that stocks will rise}.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.674% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +19 to +14 (14 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Bollinger Bands are no longer overbought.

A few worrisome signs:
- Late-day action remains bearish. I use a variation of the Hayes Smart Money Index for this signal.
- McClellan Oscillator turned bearish.
- Since the Oscillator turned bearish, the Hindenburg Omen is back in play. (The bearish signal remains for 30-days as long as the Oscillator is positive.
- New high data has weakened.

19 bull-indicators and 5 bear-indicators is quite bullish; I won’t pay much attention to the bear signals.

The biggest worry is the dispute in Iran. What’s next? MY guess was that Trump’s ego would not let him back off, but the news suggests a settlement might be near. We’ll see.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Jobless Claims … ADP Employment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +17 to +19 (19 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Iran’s bet that the US will allow them to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz (see story link above) is a high-risk move; it threatens more military action from the US. For us, it also threatens another reversal higher in oil prices and, most likely, lower in the stock market.

A few worrisome signs remain:
- Bollinger Bands were overbought again Wednesday. RSI is not overbought. I use these signals together. If they are not both overbought, I ignore it.
- Late-day action is bearish. I use a variation of the Hayes Indicator for this signal.
“The Don Hayes Smart Money Index (SMI)—originally created by Lynn Elgert and popularized by Don Hayes—is a technical indicator that compares investor behavior at the start of the trading day to behavior at the end of the day, helping traders spot institutional accumulation or distribution.” From…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/smart-money-index-smi-145933179.html

With 21 bull-indicators and 2 bear-indicators, I won’t pay much attention to the bear signals.

The biggest worry is the dispute in Iran. What’s next? Trump’s ego is not likely to let him back off.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish, but markets could still get Trumped.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)