Northern Lights during my visit in Wisconsin taken with an I-phone.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
PHILLY FED REPORT (Philadelphia FED)
“Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand
overall, according to the firms responding to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey.
The survey’s indicator for general activity edged lower but remained positive,
while the index for shipments ticked up and the index for new orders turned
positive. The employment index remained negative, continuing to suggest a
decline in overall employment levels. Both price indexes fell and remained
below their long-run averages. Future activity indicators rose, suggesting more
widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months.” Report
at...
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2024-03
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. single-family homebuilding and permits fell in
April amid a resurgence in mortgage rates, but new construction remains
supported by an acute shortage of houses for sale. Single-family housing
starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, slipped 0.4% to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.031 million units last month...” Story
at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-housing-starts-132204577.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (PYMNTS)
“The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance
dropped by 10,000 during the week ended Saturday (May 11), reversing about half
of the increase that was seen a week earlier. The total of 222,000 initial
claims filed during the week was down from the previous week’s revised figure
of 232,000...” Story at...
https://www.pymnts.com/personnel/2024/ai-startup-perplexity-adds-3-advisors-to-guide-companys-growth/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5297.
-VIX declined about 0.2% to 12.42.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.377%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
CRM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear
Indicators) remained bullish and was little changed at 7 Bear-signs and 17-Bull.
(The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since
many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below) continues to improve, a
bullish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
A new bear sign is the Overbought / Oversold Ratio that
switched to bearish. This tends to be a very short-term indicator that may suggests
a down day for tomorrow or perhaps for a few sessions.
All-in-all, things look OK for now and I am not expecting
significant declines any time soon.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
I forgot to update this chart
yesterday, but below is Friday’s chart. DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested
position. This is my max % for stock allocation.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 22 and 23.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“One of the painful signs of years of dumbed-down
education is how many people are unable to make a coherent argument. They can
vent their emotions, question other people’s motives, make bold assertions, repeat
slogans—anything except reason.” ― Thomas Sowell,
senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
MISSION OF UCLA ANTI-ISRAEL RALLY – ACTUAL REVOLUTION
(FOX News)
“A watchdog organization with a focus on higher education
released video this week showing an operative from an outside communist group
taking part in an anti-Israel protest on the campus of the University of
California, Los Angeles. ‘I'm a revolutionary organizer,’ a woman named ‘Annie’
tells an undercover journalist with Accuracy in Media in a video released on
Wednesday. ‘I'm an outside agitator,’ she adds with a smile…’We're a
little bit different because we're about getting organized for an actual
revolution.’ Revcom, led by political activist Bob Avakian, is described by Influence Watch...continues to spread its
message of communist ideas and replacing the government system in the United
States." Story at...
'An
actual revolution': Communist Party organizer reveals true mission at UCLA
anti-Israel rally (msn.com)
CPI (CNBC)
"Inflation eased
slightly in April, providing at least a bit of relief for consumers while still
holding above levels that would suggest a cut in interest rates is imminent. The consumer
price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the
cash register, increased 0.3% from March... On a 12-month basis, however, the
CPI increased 3.4%, in line with expectations...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/15/cpi-inflation-april-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-april.html
Core CPI came in as expected.
RETAIL SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“The US consumer showed signs of slowing in April. Retail
sales were flat in the month, according to data
from the Commerce Department, furthering concerns about the state of the
consumer amid sticky inflation and higher interest rates." Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-sales-flat-in-april-falling-short-of-wall-streets-expectations-123315122.html
Sales were below expectations.
NY FED MANUFACTURING (NY FED)
“Business activity continued to decline in New York
State, according to firms responding to the May 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey.
The headline general business conditions index was little changed at -15.6. New
orders declined significantly, while shipments held steady. Unfilled orders
continued to decline. Delivery times shortened, and inventories were little
changed. Labor market conditions remained weak, with employment and hours
worked continuing to move lower. The pace of input and selling price increases
moderated slightly. Though firms expect conditions to improve over the next six
months, optimism was subdued.” Report at...
https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the
previous week. At 457.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
4% below the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
This report shows strong demand continues for crude
suggesting continued pricing strength.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 5308.
-VIX declined about 7% to 12.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.342%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear
Indicators) remained bullish at 7 Bear-signs and 18-Bull. (The rest are
neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those
are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of
spread (purple line in the chart below) continues to improve, a bullish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
It didn’t take long for the S&P 500 to make new
highs. Wednesday, the S&P 500 made an all-time high about 1% higher than
the March high. 10.1% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week, all-time highs Wednesday.
The average number for this stat is about 6.7% so this indicates that the
advance has been healthy so far. If there were to be a correction now (and I am
not predicting one), it is likely that it would be a normal, less than a 10%
pullback.
There was a new bear sign today in the indicators. The
S&P 500 is now 12.2% above its 200-dMA. That’s a worrisome high that is will
eventually be a drag on the markets. At the prior top in March, the Index got
to 13.8% above its 200-dMA before the 5.5% “correction” that finished 19 April.
Charts look OK now so I won’t worry about this indicator for now.
Regarding that April bottom, I added to stock holdings 3-sessions
after the bottom and went “all-in” 6-sessions after the bottom. So far, the
indicator that I refer to as the “Summary of 50-Indicator Spread” is proving
its worth.
As reported on CNBC, Bank of America now calling a year
end value of 5600 on the S&P 500. That’s about 5.5% higher than today’s
close. Seems to me that it can go higher than that, but I won’t hazard a guess.
We’ll just watch and see what happens.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
I forgot to update this chart
yesterday, but below is Friday’s chart. DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested
position. This is my max % for stock allocation.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 22 and 23.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
THE KIDS HAVE NO IDEA (Newsweek)
“...moral judgment runs so strongly against that of the
student divestment [of Israeli investment] demands that 14 states (including
Illinois) increased their
investments in Israel as a sign of solidarity with the country after the Oct. 7
massacre...
...Ben and Jerry's seemed to think that it could buy
itself peace by caving into demands of a small Vermont BDS organization.
[Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement, whose aim is to destroy Israel
as a Jewish state.] But it only bought itself trouble. The evidence is
everywhere that the weight of moral judgment runs in Israel's favor, and that
universities divesting from Israel will face substantial pushback. The
universities are making the same mistake the ice cream maker did: vastly
overweighting the view of the protesters they happen to see every day, and
insufficiently considering the views of all their stakeholders.” Story at...
The
Kids Have No Idea What They're Talking About on Israel | Opinion (msn.com)
SORRY MR. PREZ – INFLATION ISN’T DUE TO CORPORATE GREED
(Tampa Free Press)
“The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's research
shows that while there has been an increase in markups (the difference between
a product's selling price and its production cost) in select industries like
motor vehicles, the overall markup rate has remained largely in line with
previous economic recoveries. Contrary to Biden's claims, the data suggests
that fluctuations in corporate markups have not been a driving force behind the
ups and downs of inflation during the post-pandemic recovery... The report
attributes the current inflationary pressures to other factors, such as the
massive government stimulus spending [and the FED]...” Story at...
Debunking
Biden’s “Greedflation” Claim: The Fed Reveals The True Drivers Of Inflation
(msn.com)
My cmt: Yup, the Government caused the inflation, but it’s
good politics to blame it on someone else.
“You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and
villainy.” – Obi-Wan visits Washington DC.
ANOTHER FUN INTERNET LIST – ACTIVITIES TO AVOID AFTER AGE
75
[#6 & #7 were interesting.]
“6. Do Not Run for President... the rigors of
campaigning, coupled with the immense pressures and demands of the presidency,
require an extraordinary level of stamina, resilience, and mental acuity. These
challenges can be particularly daunting for individuals in their eighties,
potentially impacting their health and capacity to fulfill the role
effectively...
7. Do Not Run a Country... Similarly, running a country,
whether as a head of state or government, places immense responsibility on an
individual's shoulders. These are shoulders that aren't as strong as they once
were. It involves making critical decisions that affect millions, often in
high-pressure situations requiring quick thinking and decisiveness. For someone
in their eighties, the physical and mental demands of such a position and the
24/7 nature of the role could prove overwhelming, potentially impacting the
effectiveness of governance and personal well-being...” Commentary at...
30
Activities to Avoid After 75: The Golden Years (msn.com)
PPI (CNBC)
“Wholesale prices jumped more than expected in April,
putting up another potential roadblock to interest rate cuts anytime soon. The
producer price index, a gauge of prices received at the wholesale level,
increased 0.5% for the month... On a year-over-year basis, wholesale inflation
rose 2.2%, also the highest in a year.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/ppi-report-wholesale-prices-rose-0point5percent-in-april-more-than-expected.html
Last month’s reading were revised down so this wasn’t a
big a shock as it might have been.
NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (Roanoke Times)
“NFIB’s
Small Business Optimism Index rose by 1.2 points in April to 89.7, marking the
first increase of this year but the 28th consecutive month below the 50-year
average of 98. Twenty-two percent of owners reported that inflation was their
single most important problem in their business, down three points from March
but still the number one problem for small business owners.” Story at...
https://www.theroanokestar.com/2024/05/14/nfib-inflation-continues-to-hinder-small-business-operations/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 5247.
-VIX declined about 1% to 13.42.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.445%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear
Indicators) remained bullish & improved to 6 Bear-signs and 18-Bull. (The
rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many
of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The
10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below) continues to improve, a
bullish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
If today’s PPI report was a serious concern, the Russell
would not have reacted as it did today.
The Russell opened higher (gapped up) and drifted down before bottoming around
1:30. Afterward, it closed about where it opened – up 1.1%. It would appear
that investors are resigned to higher-for-longer interest rates. I suspect they are happy because interest
rates aren’t likely to go up.
The Volume on the NYSE was about 20% higher than the
monthly average. I’d call that a bullish
sign. The S&P 500 is only about 0.1% below its end of March all-time high.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish. The S&P 500 is headed back to all-time,
new highs.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
I forgot to update this chart
yesterday, but below is Friday’s chart. DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested
position. This is my max % for stock allocation.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 22 and 23.
I was traveling Monday so the post is late. I hope you
got to see the Northern lights over the weekend. Amazing!
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was little changed at 5221.
-VIX rose about 8% to 13.60.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.490%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear
Indicators) remained bullish at 7 Bear-signs and 15-Bull. (The rest are
neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those
are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of
spread (purple line in the chart below) continues to improve, a bullish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Not much new. Markets started well, but faded to negative
for the day before finishing around unchanged. A so-so day. Internals were bullish,
but not overly so. PPI is due Tuesday at 08:30 and that may have troubled
markets Monday.
Just a reminder: I keep hearing the pundits talk about
how fast and far the rally has gone. The markets are due for trouble they say. As of Friday, the S&P 500 was only up
8.8% since January of 2022, more than 2 years ago - Doesn’t look too fast or
far to me.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
declined to HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish. The S&P 500 is headed back to all-time,
new highs.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
I forgot to update this chart
yesterday, but below is Friday’s chart. DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested
position. This is my max % for stock allocation.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 22 and 23.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Since this is an era when many people are concerned
about 'fairness' and 'social justice,' what is your 'fair share' of what
someone else has worked for?”― Thomas Sowell
PROTESTORS FAIL HISTORY TEST (Newsweek via msn.com)
“...Within a few years after the rise of Ayatollah
Khomeini to power, the Jewish population of Iran, which once stood at 100,000,
shrank to a fraction of its size. Today, of the ancient community whose
presence in Iran predates that of Muslims, only 8,000 remain. For centuries,
Iran has been home to the most sacred Jewish sites in the Middle East outside
of Israel. But those monuments have either fallen into disrepair or are targets
of regular attacks by antisemitic mobs. Only last week, the tomb of Esther and
Mordecai—the memorial to the heroine and hero from the Book of Esther who
saved the Jews from being massacred in ancient Persia, was set on fire.
How is it that the 90,000-plus who left Iran, many for
Israel, are now deemed as occupiers? How do Iranian refugees fleeing
persecution become "colonizers" upon arrival in Israel?” - Roya
Hakakian. Commentary at...
Protesters
Against Israel Fail Key History Test | Opinion (msn.com)
UNIV OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment retreated about 13% this May
following three consecutive months of very little change. This 10 index-point
decline is statistically significant and brings sentiment to its lowest reading
in about six months. This month’s trend in sentiment is characterized by a
broad consensus across consumers, with decreases across age, income, and
education groups. Consumers in western states exhibited a particularly steep
drop. While consumers had been reserving judgment for the past few months, they
now perceive negative developments on a number of dimensions. They expressed
worries that inflation, unemployment and interest rates may all be moving in an
unfavorable direction in the year ahead.” Press release at...
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 5223.
-VIX declined about 1% to 12.55.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.502%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear
Indicators) remained bullish at 6 Bear-signs and 17-Bull. (The rest are
neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those
are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of
spread (purple line in the chart below) continues to improve, a bullish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Friday Indicators giving Bear-signs are:
-Buying-Pressure minus selling-pressure.
-My Money Trend Indicator.
-The smoothed slope of the 100-dMA of Up-days, a general
trend indicator.
-Spread of Utilities vs. the S&P 500. This one looks
very bearish, though that could be due to investors anticipating falling
interest rates and looking for yields. This indicator is usually pretty good so
this one is a worry.
-Distribution Days. We haven’t had a Follow-thru Day to
cancel the bearish Distribution Days. -All the 15-ETFs I track are above their 120-day moving
averages. That tends to occur at tops,
but this hasn’t been true recently, or maybe I should say the indicator isn’t
very timely.
RSI and Bollinger Bands are close to “overbought” and I’ll
consider them if they do flip to the bear side.
Now, they are neutral.
With many of the reliable indicators giving bull signals,
I remain bullish and I expect the S&P 500 to retest its all-time highs.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined
to HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish. The S&P 500 is headed back to all-time,
new highs.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
I forgot to update this chart
yesterday, but below is Friday’s chart. DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested
position. This is my max % for stock allocation.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 22 and 23.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“It was Thomas Edison who brought us electricity, not the
Sierra Club. It was the Wright brothers who got us off the ground, not the
Federal Aviation Administration. It was Henry Ford who ended the isolation of
millions of Americans by making the automobile affordable, not Ralph Nader.
Those who have helped the poor the most have not been those who have gone
around loudly expressing 'compassion' for the poor, but those who found ways to
make industry more productive and distribution more efficient, so that the poor
of today can afford things that the affluent of yesterday could only dream
about.”
― Thomas Sowell
"No president has had the
run we’ve had in terms of creating jobs and bringing down inflation. It was 9% when I came to office -
9%." – Joe Biden, the Man Who Would be President.
My cmt: Sorry, Mr. President;
the correct answer is, there was 1.4% inflation when you took office. This is
just another case of Biden’s declining faculties. What were
others saying in the early days of Biden’s
Presidency?”
"If I was Darth Vader and
I wanted to destroy the US economy, I would do aggressive spending in the
middle of an already hot economy...This is the biggest bubble I've seen in my
career." - Stanley Druckenmiller, billionaire investor. (27 July 2021,
back when the CPI was around 3.0. and before the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.)
Fortunately, Mr. Druckenmiller was wrong about the overall economy – it didn’t
collapse. But the trillions in spending in
those two acts were contributors to inflation that peaked at 9% in June of
2022, well into Biden’s term.
BIDENS’ ‘GRAND BARGAN’ ILLUSION BEGINS AT RAFAH
(Jerusalem Times via msn.com)
“Biden and Secretary of State Blinken are aiming for the
diplomatic equivalent of a moon shot, the Nobel Peace Prize, and, not
incidentally, victory in the November elections... And it begins in Rafah,
through orchestrating a stalemate and ceasefire that prevents Israel from
totally defeating and uprooting Hamas as the dominant Palestinian terror
organization and the rulers of Gaza. The problem (and it is a very big
one) is that the entire scenario is built on a foundation of wishful thinking,
not history and political realism. Similarly, the triumphant 1993 Oslo “peace”
plan was based on the same illusions, and ended in the disaster known as the
Second Intifada, in which over 1000 Israelis were murdered in mass bombings,
and thousands more died on the Palestinian side....
...For Hamas, the freezing of weapons deliveries, the
wider conflict between Washington and Jerusalem, and demands for a ceasefire on
their terms are a huge gift, including continuing to use every last
brutalized Israeli hostage to squeeze out more concessions... successful
diplomacy must be based on realism, in contrast to wishful thinking and
illusions of a “grand bargain.” Peace between Israel and the Palestinians will
only come when the expectations overlap with political realism. Until then,
Israel, under Netanyahu and whoever comes next, will do what is necessary to
defend its citizens.” Commentary at...
Biden's
'Grand Bargain' illusion starts at Rafah (msn.com)
“The messaging to our enemies, in short, is clear:
however appalling your crimes, the Western public will have your backs. Fearing
confrontation, their leaders will bend to the pressure. Terrorism works, at
least when it comes to massacring Jews. God help us.” - Jake Wallis Simons, editor of the Jewish
Chronicle and author of Israelophobia.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (CNN)
“First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose
last week to 231,000, the highest level since August, in another sign that the
white-hot labor market is starting to cool off.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/09/economy/jobless-claims-highest-level-since-august/index.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 5214.
-VIX declined about 2% to 12.69.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.459%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear
Indicators) remained bullish at 9 Bear-signs and 15-Bull. (The rest are
neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those
are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of
spread (purple line in the chart below) continues to improve, a bullish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The payroll numbers were weak and today seemed to be another
case of bad news is good news.
Basic Market Internals looked good today. Advancing
volume and advancing stocks were both more than twice declining volume and
declining stocks, respectively. There
were 193 New-highs and 18 New-lows. These are bullish numbers...not much more
to say.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish. The S&P 500 is headed back to all-time,
new highs.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
I forgot to update this chart
yesterday, but below is Friday’s chart. DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually
about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position.
This is my max % for stock allocation.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 22 and 23.
