So common on many issues.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Three years ago, we were a great nation, and we will
soon be a great nation again.” - Trump at a rally in Michigan yesterday.
My cmt: Please, someone tell Donald not to campaign for
Biden. Biden was President three years ago.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment
benefits was unchanged last week and remains historically low as the labor
market continues to show resiliency in the face of high interest rates and
elevated inflation. The Labor Department reported Thursday that unemployment
claims for the week ending April 27 was 208,000...” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/number-americans-applying-jobless-claims-remains-historically-low-109865869
FACTORY ORDERS (RTT News)
“New orders for U.S. manufactured goods surged in line
with economist estimates in the month of March, according to a report released
by the Commerce Department on Thursday. The Commerce Department said factory
orders shot up by 1.6 percent in March...” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3444454/u-s-factory-orders-surge-in-line-with-estimates-in-march.aspx
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 5064.
-VIX declined about 5% to 14.61.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.583%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear
Indicators) improved, but it remains close to Neutral with 10 Bear-signs and 11-Bull.
(The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since
many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The chart below continues to look bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator
Spread (Bulls minus Bears - Purple line) is still moving higher. That is associated with a
rising S&P 500.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
“[Last week McDonalds]...posted Q1 results that missed
revenue growth and same-store sales estimates across its segments, while its
earnings also came below expectations. ‘Consumers continue to be even more
discriminating with every dollar that they spend as they faced elevated prices
in their day-to-day spending, which is putting pressure on the QSR industry,’
CEO Chris Kempczinski said during a call with investors.” From...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-q1-earnings-miss-sales-expectations-as-consumers-tighten-their-wallets-110212872.html
The CNBC crowd repeated several times earlier this week that
the weak earnings by McDonalds was a sign that the economy was weakening. This led to the predictable call by some of
the regulars that we are headed for a recession. Too bad it isn’t true. Years
ago, I looked at McDonalds earnings during the Great Recession of
2008-2009. McDonalds did great while
most stocks tanked. I’d suggest that the
reason was that as people were financially stressed during the recession, they ate
at Mickey-D’s rather than Chez-expensive.
The recent McDonalds weakness could be caused by a myriad of problems,
even if Mickey D’s claims that lower income people are not dining there as
often. I don’t see a recession any time
soon and the market seems to agree with me.
Today, I added UWM (2x Russell 2000 - ETF) since the
Russell 2000 was outperforming other Indices.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested
position. This is my max % for stock allocation.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 22 and 23.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
BIDEN’S PLAN TO RATION ELECTRICITY (WSJ)
“The Biden Administration’s regulations are coming so
fast and furious that it’s hard even to keep track, but we’re trying. On
Thursday the Environmental Protection Agency proposed its latest doozy—rules
that will effectively force coal plants to shut down while banning new
natural-gas plants.... EPA is also replacing the Obama Clean Power Plan that
the Supreme Court struck down with a rule requiring that coal plants and new
gas-fired plants adopt costly and unproven carbon-capture technology by 2032...
carbon capture uses 20% to 25% of the electricity generated by a power plant,
less will be available to the grid... All of this will hit while demand for
power is surging... Meantime, China has added about 200 gigawatts of coal power
over the last five years—about as much as the entire U.S. coal fleet. The Biden
fossil-fuel onslaught will have no effect on global temperatures.” – WSJ
Editorial Staff...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/environmental-protection-agency-rules-power-plants-fossil-fuels-coal-natural-gas-b6d2ea72
FED MEETING (CNBC)
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it was unlikely
that the central bank’s next move will be a rate hike. The comment spurred a
rally for the three major averages, with the Dow surging more than 500 points
in its session high. Central bank policymakers kept rates steady at the
conclusion of their May meeting, holding at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%.” Story
at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-on-may-fed-rate-decision.html
My cmt: The market didn’t like the Fed comment that there
was a ‘lack of further progress’ on inflation. The Fed statement said, “The Committee does
not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has
gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2
percent,”
ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT (ADP)
“Hiring was broad-based in April. Only the information
sector — telecommunications, media, and information technology — showed
weakness, posting job losses and the smallest pace of pay gains since August
2021.” Report at...
https://adpemploymentreport.com/
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.2 percent in
April, down 1.1 percentage points from the 50.3 percent recorded in March. The
overall economy continued in expansion for the 48th month after one month of
contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over
a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)”
Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/april/
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.3 million barrels from the
previous week. At 460.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
3% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
My cmt: Rising inventories led to falling prices and we
see that reflected in the XLE today, down 1.6%.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3%% to 5018.
-VIX declined about 2% to 15.39.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.641%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear
Indicators) slipped, but is close to Neutral with 12 Bear-signs and 9-Bull.
(The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since
many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The chart below continues to look bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator
Spread (Bulls minus Bears) is clearly moving higher. That is associated with a
rising S&P 500.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Weird day! When the FED
speaks, all Hell breaks loose? “Help me, Obi-Wan Jay Powell. You're my
only hope.” The Markets liked it when the Fed Chairman Powell said the next
move won’t be a rate hike, but then didn’t like the Fed comment on the lack of
progress on reducing inflation. Perhaps the Fed motto is “...you can't please
everyone, so you got to please yourself.”
Market internals were
bullish today. Advancing issues outpaced decliners; new-highs were well higher
than new-lows, and advancing volume was higher than declining volume. The
S&P 500 went down(?); what went up? As the numbers suggest, the small caps
were up - the Russell 2000 rose 0.3%. Usually, when small caps lead, the
S&P 500 will catch up. For that reason, I expect the S&P 500 will be up
tomorrow. Perhaps I’ll finally be right about my “correction over” call. Ihope
so, I am making it again! The pullback
is over.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
This may sound familiar: The pullback is over, but the
S&P 500 could always retest its low. That’s my story and I’m sticking with
it.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested
position.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 22 and 23.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® deteriorated for the third
consecutive month in April, retreating to 97.0 (1985=100) from a downwardly
revised 103.1 in March. Despite these three months of weakness, the gauge
continues to move sideways within a relatively narrow range that’s largely held
steady for more than two years.” Story at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
CHICAGO PMI (RTT News)
“The report said the Chicago business barometer slipped
to 46.0 in January from an upwardly revised 47.2 in December, with a reading
below 50 indicating a contraction.”
https://www.rttnews.com/3420745/chicago-business-barometer-unexpectedly-indicates-faster-contraction-in-january.aspx
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (CNN)
“A closely watched measure of labor costs showed that
compensation growth accelerated much faster than expected during the first
three months of the year, providing an unwelcome data point for Federal Reserve
officials looking for inflation pressures to ease. The Employment Cost Index
(ECI) rose a seasonally adjusted 1.2% last quarter, faster growth than
the 0.9%
increase the prior quarter...” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/30/economy/employment-cost-index-eci-wages-q1/index.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 1.6%% to 5036.
-VIX rose about 7% to 15.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.682%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bulls minus Bears) slipped to
Neutral with 11 Bear-signs and 11-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to
have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom
indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The chart below continues to
look bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator Spread (Bulls minus Bears - purple line) is
clearly moving higher. That is
associated with a rising S&P 500.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Markets were weak all day
and closed very near their lows. It’s just one day though. Markets are spooked by the Fed meeting Wed
and Thursday and the weaker than expected data we’ve seen rececntly. There’s still talk about the low GDP number.
The experts have pointed out that it was low due to volitile data associated with
imports and exports. Those numbers are expected to improved and the next
GDP number should improve handily.
Tuesday was a statistically significant down-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an
up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms occur on statistically-significant, down-days,
since they tend to be flush out days that shake out weak hands; but not all statistically-significant,
down-days are bottoms.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
The pullback is over, but the S&P 500 could always
retest its low. That’s my story and I’m sticking with it.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested
position.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 22 and 23.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more
money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Law enforcement officials arrested 57 protesters during
Wednesday’s event organized by the Palestine Solidarity Committee after
participants refused to disperse despite demands from authorities and the
university [of Texas at Austin]. Of those arrested, 26 were neither students
nor faculty of the university, according to officials at UT-Austin.” – Epoch
Times via ZeroHedge at...
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/nearly-half-those-arrested-ut-austin-pro-palestinian-protest-had-no-links-school
"For anyone who understands the role of the free
press in a democracy, it should be troubling that President Biden has so
actively and effectively avoided questions from independent journalists during
his term. The president occupies the most important office in our nation, and
the press plays a vital role in providing insights into his thinking and
worldview, allowing the public to assess his record and hold him to account.
Mr. Biden has granted far fewer press conferences and sit-down interviews with
independent journalists than virtually all of his predecessors.” – NY Times
Peasant Woman: Well, how’d
you become king, then?
King Arthur: The Lady of the
Lake, her arm clad in the purest shimmering samite, held aloft Excalibur from
the bosom of the water, signifying by divine providence that I, Arthur, was to
carry Excalibur. That is why I am your king.
Dennis: Listen. Strange
women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of
government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not
from some farcical aquatic ceremony.
Given the choices this election
cycle, we might be better off with a Lady of the Lake.
From Michael Ramirez, political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
CRIMINAL CASES AGAINST TRUMP (US News and World Report)
“Indictment 1: Hush Money
Trump’s first indictment on March 30, 2023, centered
around his role in reimbursing his former attorney, Michael Cohen, for paying
off porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016 to keep her quiet about what she says was
an extramarital affair she had with Trump a decade earlier...[charged with]...
falsifying business records...
Indictment 2: Classified Documents
The former president’s second indictment came on June 9,
when a grand jury accused him of illegally retaining classified information
after he left office, showing some of those documents to individuals without
proper clearance and hatching a plan to hide the materials from officials in
defiance of a federal subpoena...[charged with]... willful retention of
national defense information, conspiracy to obstruct justice, withholding a
document or record, corruptly concealing a document or record, concealing a document
in a federal investigation, scheme to conceal and making false statements...
Indictment 3: 2020 Election
A federal grand jury handed up Trump’s third indictment
on Aug. 1 in connection with what prosecutors say were efforts to overturn the
results of his 2020 election loss and undermine America’s democracy...[ charged
with]... one count of conspiracy to defraud the United States, one count of
conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, one count of obstruction of and
attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and one count of conspiracy against
rights....
Indictment 4: Georgia RICO and Conspiracy
Trump’s fourth indictment came late on Aug. 14, when a
grand jury accused him and more than a dozen of his allies of orchestrating a
massive criminal enterprise to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential
election in Georgia... Trump attorneys Jenna Ellis, Sidney Powell and Kenneth
Chesebro and Atlanta-based bail bondsman Scott Hall have pleaded guilty in the
case and were given reduced sentences in exchange for their cooperation with
prosecutors... Trump faced 13 charges, including a violation of the state
racketeering law, or RICO, solicitation of violation of oath by public officer,
conspiracy to commit impersonating a public officer, conspiracy to commit
forgery, conspiracy to commit false statements and writings, committing false
statements and writings, conspiracy to commit filing false documents and filing
false documents.” Story at...
https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2023-08-15/explainer-trumps-four-indictments
My cmt: There was a lot more detail in the interesting
read.
Trump has already been found guilty in one case (not
listed above; it’s not a criminal case).
“Judge Arthur Engoron, ruling in a civil lawsuit brought by New York Attorney General
Letitia James, found that Trump and his company deceived banks, insurers and
others by massively overvaluing his assets and exaggerating his net worth on
paperwork used in making deals and securing loans.” For details see...
https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-letitia-james-fraud-lawsuit-1569245a9284427117b8d3ba5da74249
The MAGA crowd claims these cases are all about
“weaponizing” Government against poor, mistreated Donald.
“Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large
groups." – George Carlin
The NY cases are questionable. Any one of the other three
should put Trump in prison.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 improved about 0.3% to 5116.
-VIX declined about 2% to 14.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.612%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bulls minus Bears) continues to improve
and Monday it turned bullish. The Summary is now 8 Bear-signs and 14-Bull. (The
rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many
of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The
chart below continues to look bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator Spread
(Bulls minus Bears) has been bottoming and again today, it moved higher.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today, markets reacted to news in the afternoon that the
Treasury Department was going to borrow about $41B more than expected next
quarter. This is a worry – the National Debt is now impacting stock markets. As
always, I’ll be watching the markets closely.
If the National Debt begins to affect stock market sentiment, we could
be in for real trouble. For now, markets are looking ok. We are coming off a
25% bear market that ended two years ago.
It would be unusual to see a crash now, and indicators don’t support it;
I am following indicators.
As much as we’d like to pretend otherwise, Indicators don’t
predict the future. They give a snapshot of current market conditions and
trend. For now, the trend is up.
Market indicators suggest that the pullback is over. Market action over the last 2 days is
confirming that conclusion. Could the markets reverse back down? Sure, that’s
always possible, but Indicators are bullish and more are on the verge of turning
bullish.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I think the pullback is over. I bought SSO and QLD.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested
position.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 22 and 23.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"I’ve worked with Bette Davis, John Wayne, Jimmy
Stewart, Henry Fonda. Here’s the thing they all have in common: They all, even
in their 70s, worked a little harder than everyone else.” - Ron Howard
"This tells you all you need to know about today's
Republican National Committee: The person in charge of election integrity for
the GOP was just indicted in Arizona for lack of election integrity." –
Liz Cheney, former Republican Congresswoman.
ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST (CNN)
“The Gateway Pundit, the notorious far-right
blog and prolific publisher of conspiracy theories, said Wednesday that it had
filed for bankruptcy protection as it grapples with litigation related to its
coverage of the 2020 election. The move comes as
the staunchly pro-Donald Trump website, which promoted the false
notion that the 2020 election was stolen by President Joe Biden and his allies,
faces multiple lawsuits over its bogus claims.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/media/gateway-pundit-declares-bankruptcy/index.html
THEY’RE SO GOOD, NO ONE WANTS TO BUY ONE
“Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared
in the first quarter to $1.3 billion, or $132,000 for each of the 10,000
vehicles it sold in the first three months of the year, helping to drag down earnings
for the company overall.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/business/ford-earnings-ev-losses/index.html
CORE PCE (CNBC)
“The personal consumption expenditures price index
excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as
in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was above the 2.7%
estimate from the Dow Jones consensus.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/26/pce-inflation-march-2024-key-fed-inflation-measure-rose-2point8percent.html
My cmt: Yesterday’s number that I reported here from
Yahoo Finance was the “advance” Core PCE.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 improved about 1% to 5100.
-VIX declined about 2% to 15.03.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.663%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bulls minus Bears) improved to
Neutral today. The Summary is now 10 Bear-signs and 10-Bull. (The rest are
neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those
are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The chart
below also looks more bullish since the 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator Spread (Bulls
minus Bears) has been bottoming and again today, it turned up.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Fast Money crowd on CNBC was again talking about how
the advance has been narrow with only big names, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, etc.,
carrying the market. I don’t know about
that. Moving averages of the % of issues advancing on the NYSE for 10, 50 and
100-days are now all above 50%, i.e., more than half of the issues over those periods
have advanced. A lot of issues are participating. At the S&P 500 high at
the end of March, 13% of all issues on the NYSE made new, all-time highs – that
number suggests a broad advance and that if a decline were to occur, it would probably
be less than 10%. The max decline from the March high was 5.5%, five sessions
ago.
I’ve been saying for several days that I think the
pullback is over. Today, it looks like
the market is starting to agree with me.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I think this pullback is over and Monday I’ll place some
more bets in that direction by adding trading positions in SSO and QLD.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
