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Thursday, October 17, 2024

Retail Sales ... Jobless Claims ... Philly Fed ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

REPUBLICANS VOTING FOR HARRIS (excerpted from The Cap Times)
“We need to think in longer terms that the fight against Trumpism and the extremism that he has mainstreamed and amplified is going to be with us for some time, but the beginning of the Republican Party moving away from the conspiracy theories, the lies, the raw bigotry that we are seeing in this extremely ugly campaign is to defeat Donald Trump... I understand that there are people who would like to keep their hands clean, who have that warm, fuzzy feeling of being above the fray by writing in George Washington or writing in Edmund Burke or writing in Ronald Reagan, but (those names) are not on the ballot. The only two candidates who have a chance to win this election are Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. And by voting for Kamala Harris, I think that we draw the line and say that Donald Trump should never be allowed anywhere near power again.” – Charlie Sykes, conservative Wisconsin political commentator and talk radio host. From...
https://captimes.com/news/elections/these-republicans-are-voting-for-kamala-harris-here-s-why/article_d9de36c0-8a75-11ef-8716-e3c65533326b.html

MY OPINION
If Harris is elected, let’s look at the positive. It will be the end of Donald Trump. It is certain that Harris’ extreme agenda (nullifying the Supreme Court; ending private health insurance; ending right to work laws; etc.) will be an anathema to most Americans. This will guarantee a mid-term Republican landslide in the House and a more conservative Senate. Harris would be checked by congress (as she would be with the current Congress). What is likely to follow four years later would be a more moderate Republican President.

As I have stated before, I won’t vote for Donald Trump. I took an oath not to vote for him. As a graduate of Virginia Military Institute, an Army officer, and a 35-year employee of the Defense Department I swore an oath on many occasions to “...support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic...” Trump’s actions to overturn an election he clearly lost by attempting to install phony electoral college members and pressuring the Vice President not to certify the election makes him an enemy of the Constitution. – Meade Stith.

PHILLY FED (RTT News)
“The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a report on Thursday showing regional manufacturing activity has expanded overall in the month of October. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity jumped to 10.3 in October from 1.7 in September, with a positive reading indicating growth. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 3.0. The much bigger than expected increase by the headline index partly reflected turnarounds by new orders and shipments.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3482180/philly-fed-index-jumps-much-more-than-expected-in-october.aspx

RETAIL SALES (CNBC)
“Consumer spending held up in September, underscoring a resilient economy... Retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% on the month, up from the unrevised 0.1% gain in August and better than the 0.3% Dow Jones forecast...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/17/retail-sales-rose-0point4percent-in-september-better-than-expected-jobless-claims-dip.html

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment unexpectedly fell last week, but could remain elevated in the near-term amid the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, obscuring the labor market picture.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ended Oct. 12...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-fall-2024-10-17/

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. industrial production fell in September, weighed down by a strike at Boeing and two hurricanes, including Helene. Industrial output dropped 0.3% last month...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-strike-hurricane-helene-weigh-142835300.html

EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 420.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was little changed at 5841.
-VIX declined about 2% to 19.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.096%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +13 is bullish and the 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) remains bullish. I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals.

There are a few troubling top-indicators popping up:
-Breadth vs the S&P 500 shows that the Index has gotten too far ahead of the rest of the market.
-My Money Trend indicator is also now suggesting a top.

In addition, the indicator that tracks the daily movements of the markets predicts a Top in less than 20-trading days. The statistical analysis shows that markets are too calm.

I won’t worry until the S&P 500 chart looks more bearish. For now, I suspect that markets can keep running higher.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“The organizational unsteadiness of Ms. Harris’s campaign reflects a longtime personal trait, according to allies: she is a candidate who seeks input from a stable of advisers, but her personal political convictions can be unclear...To some Democrats who know Ms. Harris, her struggles indicate larger limitations. ‘You can’t run the country if you can’t run your campaign...” – NY Times, November 2019.

Under Democratic Governor Ralph Northum, the Commonwealth of Virginia passed a bill that said law enforcement could not use facial recognition. The stated reason was that it discriminated against minorities, an absurd claim - it discriminates against criminals. In 2022, under Republican Glenn Youngkin, Virginia passed legislation (SB 741) that allows law enforcement and government agencies to use facial recognition technology, reversing the state's complete ban that was enacted in 2021...just sayin.’

TRUMP MIGHT WIN – WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY? (USA Today)
“If Democrats aren't panicking yet, they might want to start. The Kamala Harris honeymoon is over, and the glow has dissipated. In six of the seven battleground states, former President Donald Trump now shows a slight lead in the polls. An NBC News poll released Sunday shows Harris and Trump tied in the national vote. We are three weeks out from Election Day and one thing has become clear: Trump might actually win.” Story at...
Opinion: Trump might win this election. What does that say about the Democratic Party? (msn.com)
My cmt: It is important to remember that President Obama did not endorse Harris. He anticipated a convention where the best candidate would be selected. Here’s an excerpt from his statement regarding Biden’s dropping out of the race: “We will be navigating uncharted waters in the days ahead. But I have extraordinary confidence that the leaders of our party will be able to create a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges. I believe that Joe Biden's vision of a generous, prosperous, and united America that provides opportunity for everyone will be on full display at the Democratic Convention in August.”
Instead, the Democrats, like Biden, made a woke selection of a woman of color. Harris was the first to drop out of the Presidential race in December of 2019. Why did they think she could pull this off? She still might – Trump is a weak candidate, too, but her left-leaning positions border on communism. See below.

WHAT HARRIS BELIEVES – EXCERPTED & or PARAPHRASED mostly from WSJ, but also from various reputable, legitimate sources.
As California Attorney General and US Senator from California:
1. She sponsored a bill to create a $6,000 guaranteed income for families making up to $100,000.
2. She proposed a refundable tax credit capping rents and utility payments at 30% of income.
3.She co-sponsored legislation with Bernie Sanders to pay tuition at four-year public colleges for students from families making up to $125,000.

4. She co-sponsored Medicare-for-All legislation with Bernie Sanders, abolishing private health insurance.
5. She endorsed a nationwide ban on oil and gas fracking. (Now she says she no longer supports such a ban.)
6. She investigated Exxon Mobil over its carbon emissions. (as Attorney General of California.)

7.Speaking to a Service Employees International Union (SEIU) gathering on Saturday [7/27/2024], Harris spoke of the need for "banning right-to-work laws" that nearly half of states have enacted and how, as president, she would use both her "bully pulpit" and "executive authority" to accomplish that. (Right-to-work laws say is that employees can't be told to join a union or pay union fees as a condition of employment.)
8. As a U.S. senator, Harris was an early co-sponsor of the Green New Deal, a non-binding blueprint for transitioning the country to 100% clean energy within a decade. The Green New Deal was first introduced by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Edward Markey in February 2019. (Jul 21, 2024) Harris unveiled a plan to spend $10 trillion to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with a goal of getting to a zero-emissions economy by 2045.
9.She voted against Fed Chair Powell’s first term as Fed chair in 2018 in an 84-13 vote.

10. She supported the Democratic Party’s 2020 platform, which proposed expanding the Fed’s dual mandate—the pursuit of maximum employment and price stability—to include a racial-equity component.
11. In a high-profile speech in March, she became the first person in the Biden administration to call for an immediate ceasefire, albeit only a temporary one. “When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress Wednesday [26 July], Vice President Kamala Harris wasn’t there... the snub was unmistakable. It is fueling rumors of a rift between the Harris and Biden approaches to the Middle East.”
12. Vice President Harris signaled her support Monday for sweeping changes to the “extreme” Supreme Court, including 18-year term limits for justices, proposed by President Biden. (As noted by Bill Barr, former Attorney General, Biden’s reforms would purge conservative Justices & “destroy the independence of the judiciary.”

13. “...Mr. Biden famously put Ms. Harris in charge of border policy... Rather than push for border policy changes [she blamed] the rush of migrants on “root causes” in developing countries, including corruption, violence, poverty and “lack of climate adaptation and climate resilience.” ...
14. “...She lambasted the Trump Administration for killing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qassem Soleimani, claiming it could lead to bigger war in the Mideast. The killing chastened Iran’s rulers instead, at least until the Biden Administration began to ease sanctions and tried to repeat the 2015 nuclear deal...
15.Ms. Harris made headlines a decade ago by threatening to punish nonprofit groups that refused to turn over unredacted donor information... [The] purpose was to learn the names of conservative donors and chill future political giving. The Court said California’s claim that it would protect donor information lacked credibility, since during the litigation plaintiffs discovered nearly 2,000 Schedule B forms “inadvertently posted to the Attorney General’s website.” It noted that the petitioners and donors faced “threats” and “retaliation.” - WSJ

16. The self-described "government transparency website" scored Harris as the "most liberal compared to all senators" in 2019, outranking Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren at the time. (After Harris became the defacto Presidential candidate, the website removed the rating.)

17. “The organizational unsteadiness of Ms. Harris’s campaign reflects a longtime personal trait, according to allies: she is a candidate who seeks input from a stable of advisers, but her personal political convictions can be unclear...To some Democrats who know Ms. Harris, her struggles indicate larger limitations. ‘You can’t run the country if you can’t run your campaign...” – NY Times, November 2019.

-Regular readers know that while I think VP Harris is a disaster, I am not a Trump supporter.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 5842.
-VIX declined about 5% to 19.58.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.018%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +12 is bullish and the 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) finally turned up. These are the signs I was hoping to see and I’ve added trading positions in SPY and SSO.

Wednesday there was High, unchanged-volume. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The trend has been higher for a while. Does that mean a reversal lower is in the works? Perhaps the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Adding to Stock Positions

My 10-dMA of indicators finally turned up giving me a buy signal. I bought: S&P 500 ETF (SPY); 2xS&P 500 ETF (SSO). This pushes my portfolio to about 75% invested in stocks and stock ETFs. That is a max.

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

NY Fed Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

BIDEN’S BROADBAND BLOWOUT IS A WASTE (WSJ)
“The Broadband Rollout Fiasco” (Review & Outlook, Oct. 5) is real. Few American households live in areas without access to broadband in the first place. In its 2021 Broadband Deployment Report, the Federal Communications Commission found that 99.4% of the U.S. population in 2019 lived in areas that met the FCC’s broadband definition for either fixed or mobile services. The remaining 0.6%, roughly 770,000 households, who lacked access to broadband were mostly in the rural West or Alaska. The 2021 infrastructure law allocated $42.5 billion to areas “unserved” by broadband. That is more than $55,000 for each unserved household in 2019. Many would have chosen a check for $50,000 rather than a new government service.” - Harold Furchtgott-Roth, former FCC commissioner, Hudson Institute. From WSJ Letters at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/biden-broadband-blowout-is-a-waste-cea24907

US TIGHTENS OIL SANCTIONS ON IRAN (WSJ)
“The Biden administration said Friday that it was tightening sanctions on Iran in response to Tehran’s large-scale ballistic missile attack on Israel earlier this month.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-tightens-oil-sanctions-on-iran-as-it-seeks-to-contain-israeli-attack-dd983191
My cmt: According to the US Dept of State, Iran has been supporting “...Hamas and other U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist groups, including Palestine Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command.” Why haven’t our sanctions already been maxed out? This is another example of unbelievable incompetence by our government. Or was it pure politics? Don't put too many sanctions on, so the oil price remains low and Democrats get re-elected - your choice.

NY FED MANUFACTURING (bnnBloomberg)
“New York state factory activity swung back into contraction territory this month as orders and shipments weakened, consistent with lackluster manufacturing. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s October general business conditions index slid 23.4 points to a five-month low of minus 11.9, figures issued Tuesday showed... the New York Fed’s gauge of prices paid for materials increased to a six-month high of 29, while an index of prices received by state manufacturers also accelerated.” Story at...
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/10/15/new-york-manufacturing-contracts-as-orders-shipments-weaken/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 5815.
-VIX rose about 5% to 20.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.034%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16, but SOLD 2 Oct. (Missed this move. I expect to buy it back soon)
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:

The NY Fed report that hinted at increasing inflation came out at 8:30 am Eastern, so today’s fall starting at 10 am is curious. There was a double-top on the S&P 500 before the fall, so the decline was still probably due to the NY Fed report.

Overall, today’s Bull-Bear spread of +8 is bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) was flat. I need to see it break higher before I will commit more funds to the stock market.

An improvement in the indicators tomorrow will probably give me that buy-signal since the 10-dMA is flat.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish, but still awaiting an upturn in indicators to add leveraged trading positions.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, October 14, 2024

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

THE PURGE IS REAL – INSIDE THE GOP’S 2024 PLAYBOOK TO DISENFRANCHISE VOTERS (Alternet)
“On Monday, a new lawsuit was dropped on Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin from the League of Women Voters in Virginia and immigrant-rights groups who accuse him and his attorney general, Jason Miyares, of running an illegal “Purge Program” ahead of November's elections...These last-minute efforts to kick people off state voter lists aren’t accidental. They’re part of former President Donald Trump’s strategy to recapture the White House. And it’s working, at least in some regions.” Story at...
The Purge is real: Inside the GOP's 2024 playbook to disenfranchise voters (msn.com)
My cmt: What crap! If there is Russian disinformation to divide the country, this is what it would look like. Here’s what Wikipedia says about Alternet: “There is consensus that AlterNet is generally unreliable. Editors consider AlterNet a partisan source, and its statements should be attributed.”

Great Scott! The Democrats are working hard to get Donald Trump elected. See the following:
VIRGINIA GOVERNOR ISSUES STATEMENT:
“Governor Glenn Youngkin, after being notified this afternoon (Friday) that the Biden-Harris Department of Justice was filing a lawsuit against the Commonwealth of Virginia, released the following statement:
"With less than 30 days until the election, the Biden-Harris Department of Justice is filing an unprecedented lawsuit against me and the Commonwealth of Virginia, for appropriately enforcing a 2006 law signed by Democrat Tim Kaine that requires Virginia to remove noncitizens from the voter rolls - a process that starts with someone declaring themselves a non-citizen and then registering to vote. Virginians - and Americans - will see this for exactly what it is: a desperate attempt to attack the legitimacy of the elections in the Commonwealth, the very crucible of American Democracy. With the support of our Attorney General, we will defend these commonsense steps, that we are legally required to take, with every resource available to us. Virginia’s election will be secure and fair, and I will not stand idly by as this politically motivated action tries to interfere in our elections, period." Statement from the Governor’s Office at...
https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/2024/october/name-1035132-en.html
Democrat Terry McCauliff lost the Virginia Gubernatorial election because during the September 2021 debate McCauliff said, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” The Biden-Harris voter lawsuit ranks up there along with McCauliff’s blunder as a possible election game-changer. Harris has been leading in Virginia by as much as 11 points. Virginia has not voted Republican in a Presidential election for 20-years (George W. Bush). Perhaps the incompetent Democrats will change that.

WHEN YOUR CAMPAIGN IS FLAGGING, BUY SOME VOTES (Daily Caller)
“The Harris campaign rolled out its “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men,” which proposes to give one million $20,000 loans to black entrepreneurs and “others who have historically faced barriers to starting a new business or growing an existing business.” The policy is aligned with the Biden administration’s broad effort to prioritize or otherwise incorporate race into several major government programs and initiatives, such as its payments to black American farmers who faced discrimination before 2021 and its Justice40 agenda stipulating that 40% of the benefits of certain environmental spending and programs flow to “disadvantaged communities.”
Kamala Harris Appears To Propose New Race-Based Payments As Support From Black Men Lags (msn.com)
My cmt: I changed the headline for the above article. BTW. The Federal Government already has a program to do this referred to as “8A” (Section 8A under the Small Business Act).
From the Minority Business Development agency: “The 8(a) Business Development Program is a business assistance program for small disadvantaged businesses. The 8(a) Program offers a broad scope of assistance to firms that are owned and controlled at least 51% by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals.” I dealt with it regularly during my 35-year Government career. We paid more for 8A contracts because they were negotiated contracts rather than awarded to the lowest bidder.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 5860.
-VIX declined about 4% to 19.7.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.105%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Overall, a Bull-Bear spread of +6 is slightly bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is still sloping down. I need to see it break higher before I will commit more funds to the stock market.

As previously noted: The S&P 500 appears to be breaking out of the descending triangle and that‘s a good sign.

8.7% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today when the S&P 500 made a new, all-time high. That’s well above average and this indicates a broad advance and suggests that if there were a pullback it would be relatively small.

One new Bear sign popped up today – Bollinger Bands are overbought. As I regularly note, I use Bollinger Bands with RSI. Since RSI is not overbought so I’ll ignore the Bollinger signal.

I still think that I may get a buy-signal this week. I’ll post during the trading-day if I make any portfolio moves next week.

It might seem logical to add more stocks/ETFs now, but I am following my system. I am already over-invested. I only move to an extreme over-invested position when the indicators are giving strong, bullish signals. I’ll wait until they do before I reset leveraged positions.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point, but leaning bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, October 11, 2024

PPI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

PPI (CNBC)
“A measure of wholesale prices showed no change in September, pointing to a continued easing in inflation, the Labor Department reported Friday. The producer price index, which measures what producers get for their goods and services, was flat for the month and up 1.8% from a year ago.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/11/producer-price-index-september-2024-.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5815.
-VIX declined about 2% to 20.46.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.096%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Overall, a Bull-Bear spread of +4 is Neutral to slightly bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is still sloping down. I need to see it break higher before I will commit more funds to the stock market.

The S&P 500 appears to be breaking out of the descending triangle and that‘s a good sign.

Breadth is improving, too. I suspect that I may get a buy signal early next week. I’ll post during the trading-day if I make any portfolio moves next week.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point, but leaning bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, October 10, 2024

CPI ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

"Yes they can control the weather. It’s ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can’t be done." – Marjorie Taylor Greene, Congresswoman, Georgia (R).

Michael Ramirez. Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html

“These billion-dollar disasters used to happen once every three months back in the 1980s. Over the last decade they’ve happened closer to every three weeks,” says Adam Smith, an applied climatologist at NOAA. “Climate change is certainly supercharging many of these trends.” Story at...
Hurricane Milton: How climate change is ‘supercharging’ extreme weather trends | Watch (msn.com)
My cmt: 80’s? That was 40-years ago. Maybe it has something to do with more people living in the danger zone and the increased value of real estate. The following story is closer to the truth.

CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE DOESN’T SUPPORT THE HEATED RHETORIC (Tribune News Service)
“We are constantly reminded that we are experiencing a climate crisis, but as a climate scientist, I can tell you that’s not what the science has shown us so far. Other than modest warming, there has been little change in any kind of severe weather that can be attributed to global greenhouse gas emissions. You don’t have to take my word for it, despite my credentials. It’s the conclusion of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Its most recent report concludes that, other than direct temperature-related effects, there have been virtually no changes in severe weather that we can confidently attribute to greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.” - Roy W. Spencer, PhD, a visiting fellow at The Heritage Foundation, Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). He is the author of “Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models.” Story at...
Commentary: Climate change: The science doesn’t support the heated rhetoric (msn.com)

“The stock market indices look like they all want to move higher into year-end, regardless of what happens this month. Since September 2022 my strategy has been to buy weakness. That remains in place today. I sometimes try to be too cute. Don’t miss out on what could be another solid quarter.” -Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital. Blog at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/does-the-government-manipulate-economic-data/

CPI & JOBLESS CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Both the headline and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast for the month, with a 0.2% increase in the headline index and a 0.3% rise for the core... On an annual basis, the headline index rose 2.4% in September, slightly less than 2.5% the month before, while the core figure accelerated for the first time in one and a half years, to 3.3% from 3.2%....
...Weekly jobless claims also came out Thursday, and showed a much-bigger-than-expected increase of 258,000, against the median forecast for 230,000. While this was likely affected by the impact of hurricanes, one market participant said the jump – to the highest level in more than a year – was hard to ignore.” Story at...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-10-10/us-cpi-report-for-september

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5780.
-VIX rose about 0.3% to 20.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.067%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +2 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Overall, a Bull-Bear spread of +2 is Neutral so the markets remain unsettled. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is still sloping down so we can’t feel too confident about markets. It’s not that I expect a big downturn, but the indicators are suggesting that the directionless trend may continue.

The bearish, rising-wedge pattern, shown by the red, dashed-lines on the above chart, remains in play.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point, but leaning bullish, still waiting to see what the indicators tell us.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)