Navigate the Stock Market

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

New Home Sales ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

TRUMP, TYLENOL AND THE PLAINTIFFS BAR (WSJ-Excerpt)
“We’ll admit we didn’t see this coming: President Trump advising pregnant women against using one of the most ubiquitous over-the-counter medicines in America... “Don’t take Tylenol,” Mr. Trump said standing next to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “Fight like hell not to take it.” If a drug company made the unproven claims aired at the White House, the Food and Drug Administration would threaten legal action... Some studies have found that neuro-developmental diseases including autism are more common in children of women who use acetaminophen more often during pregnancy. But correlation doesn’t prove causation, and even the evidence of the association is mixed. [Women who eat French fries are prone to having autistic children; that’s why correlation doesn’t prove causation.]...So why the sudden alarm, complete with a presidential presser? The Occam’s razor answer is the influence of RFK Jr., who is carrying water for his friends in the plaintiffs bar. A who’s-who of lawsuit shops are pushing the Tylenol-autism link in federal court. The litigants include the Lanier Law Firm, Beasley Allen, Cooper Law Partners, and Keller Postman. Most have been allies of Mr. Kennedy in other mass torts, such as against the weed-killer Roundup and Merck’s HPV vaccine. Their main lawsuit claim is that Tylenol’s marketer, Kenvue Inc., failed to warn users about an autism-acetaminophen link.
... Perhaps no one told Mr. Trump about this trial lawyer campaign, but the costs of his intervention aren’t benign. He’s raising public fear about a useful medicine in a way that could harm maternal and fetal health. [When a pregnant woman has a fever, it is likely to do more harm than using Tylenol given that the unproven claims associated with Tylenol have been refuted in many reputable studies.] Whatever happened to do no harm?” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. See the full article at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/tylenol-acetaminophen-autism-donald-trump-rfk-jr-fda-pregnant-women-548bb877?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
My cmt: Here ‘s a study on the subject from the Journal of the American Medical Association:
Subject: “Risk of Autism, ADHD, and Intellectual Disability”
Findings: ”Acetaminophen use during pregnancy was not associated with children’s risk of autism, ADHD, or intellectual disability in sibling control analyses. This suggests that associations observed in other models may have been attributable to confounding.” Study at...
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2817406

EVEN THE VERY RICH SHOULD INVEST IN BROAD MARKET INDEX FUNDS (Marketwatch)
“There’s no doubt that the 400 richest Americans are coming off a very good 12 months — but over the last decade, they would have done even better had they invested in a broad-market index fund. This provides a powerful investment lesson to the rest of us. Contrary to the belief that the ultrawealthy have some unique investment skills that enable them to regularly beat the stock market, even they, on average, don’t beat the stock market.” Story at...
Even the very rich should invest in broad-market index funds — here’s why

RETIREE FINANCIAL REGRETS (Moneywise)
“1. I didn’t start saving early enough...
2. I was too conservative with my investments...
3. I didn’t have a cushion for life’s curve balls...
4. I underestimated health care costs...
5. I blew through my retirement fund too fast...
6. I was too cautious and sacrificed my enjoyment...” Story at...
This writer talked to American retirees to find their biggest money regrets. Are you making the same mistakes?

FED COMMENTS (MSN)
“The economy [is] growing, but not fast… except in the area of the AI build out, which is just going really strong pretty much [in] many parts of the country,” [Fed Chair ]Powell said. That has created strong demand for AI-related skills while leaving other areas of hiring stalled, a reality which Powell stressed that the Fed has little ability to change. “Our tools work on demand—basically lower interest rates, higher interest rates,” he said. When there are “structural changes” to the economy, there isn’t much more the Fed can do. “We can’t fix the education system,” he said. “That’s for legislators and the private sector. But it matters enormously for the future of our economy.” – Story at...
Jerome Powell says Gen Z without tech skills are getting crushed in the ’low-hire, low-fire’ job market—and colleges are failing them

NEW HOME SALES / BUILDING PERMITS (CNBC)
“Sales of newly built homes rose a much larger-than-expected 20.5% in August compared with July to the highest level since January 2022...Single-family housing starts and permits slowed in August both from July and from August of last year.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/24/august-new-home-sales-soar.html

CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 414.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

MORE POWER COMING ONLINE (EIA)

Map from...
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6638.
-VIX declined about 3% to 16.18. (Those Options Players can’t make up their minds.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.149% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +3 to Zero (Equal Bull indicators and Bear indicators) and remains a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.

Tuesday there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.
My rule is that this signal remains in place for 10-days or until the high of the Outside reversal Day is exceeded.

Declining indicators are concerning, but there are plenty of bull indicators so no need to panic. Still, a drop below zero is sometimes a sign of trouble coming.

So far, breadth is ok except that some early warning breadth indicators, such as the McClellan Oscillator, have turned bearish.

If it continues, how far will the decline go? The best guess would be that the 50-dMA will hold. Currently, the 50-dMA is about 6450 or about 3% below today’s close. The lower trendline is higher and that is also a level of strong support.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish, I don’t expect a big correction, but I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Richmond Fed Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

TEENS SHOUILD TAKE A FINANCE CLASS IN HIGH SCHOOL (Moneywise)
“A study from consulting firm Tyton Partners and nonprofit Next Gen Personal Finance found that taking just one personal finance class in high school leads to an average lifetime benefit of about $100,000 per student. And that number may be conservative, according to CNBC... Learning how to navigate the financial markets can pay off for decades. “Teaching students about the financial markets is the greatest asset for building wealth,” said Yanely Espinal, director of educational outreach at Next Gen, in an interview with CNBC.” Story at...
A single high school class can boost a teen's lifetime wealth by $100,000 — but most kids aren't taking it. Here's what they're missing

SUPREME COURT TO RECONSIDER LIMITS ON THE PRESIDENT’S POWER TO FIRE (WSJ)
“The Supreme Court on Monday said it would formally reconsider a 90-year-old precedent that has barred presidents from removing officials of independent agencies absent misconduct or other cause. The justices said they would hear oral argument in December over whether federal law protecting some officials from arbitrary removal infringes on the president’s constitutional power over the executive branch.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/supreme-court-trump-ftc-rebecca-kelly-slaughter-cb69e8f3?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgis2yQd6i9xA-U4s1Ia154YvqB-VNRO16P47NW3sakmOLxNl8wEqCl4N3OR9k%3D&gaa_ts=68d2dfe7&gaa_sig=35OCk-1l_1INfUVUYdP01qKop65GHsgYeB6MNbOUbtW6EzYwNfV453zuVUJ9VRQ3aK81cLEznHJAlU1FEmZQMA%3D%3D

NEXSTAR AND SINCLAIR WON’T AIR JIMMY KIMMEL SHOW (Business Insider)
“Nexstar Media Group, one of the nation's largest local TV station owners, said it will continue to air other programming in place of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" on its ABC affiliates ahead of the show's return on Tuesday night. "We made a decision last week to preempt 'Jimmy Kimmel Live!' following what ABC referred to as Mr. Kimmel's 'ill-timed and insensitive' comments at a critical time in our national discourse," Nexstar said in a statement Tuesday. "We stand by that decision pending assurance that all parties are committed to fostering an environment of respectful, constructive dialogue in the markets we serve." Story at...
TV station owner Nexstar joins Sinclair, says it will continue not to air Jimmy Kimmel

CRASH COMING? (WSJ)
“The alarming part of Spitznagel’s (Universa Investments) current outlook is that he sees conditions akin to 1929, the year of the Wall Street crash. The silver lining for those hoping the bull-market music will keep playing a while longer: He thinks this is more like the early part of 1929 when stocks added significantly to their Roaring ’20s gains. How excited—or worried—should ordinary investors be? Take a deep breath and understand the way Spitznagel made those past killings. He wasn’t reading the tea leaves and predicting the timing of stock swoons. Even the smartest trader couldn’t know a pandemic or trading glitch was coming. Universa buys so-called tail-risk protection that loses money most of the time and then pays off hugely if a downturn is particularly sharp.” Story at...
Black Swan Manager Sees Huge Rally, Then 1929-Style Crash
My cmt: Spitznagel is a perma-bear manager who bets against the markets on a regular basis.

RICHMOND FED INDEX (Seeking Alpha via msn)
“The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index eroded to -17 in September from -7 in August, and compared with the -10 consensus, according to data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond on Tuesday.” Story at...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/richmond-fed-manufacturing-index-erodes-more-than-expected-in-september/ar-AA1N8P07?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 6657.
-VIX rose about 3% to 16.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.106% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +4 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and remains a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.

“We do look at overall financial conditions, and we ask ourselves whether our policies are affecting financial conditions in a way that is what we’re trying to achieve...by many measures, for example, equity prices are fairly highly valued.” – Jerome Powell, FED Chair.

Thanks Chair Powell. I think you own the stock swoon today. At least he didn’t say, “Irrational Exuberance.” That was Alan Greenspan, then-chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, before the dot.com bubble and stock market crash.

I mentioned that Nvidia was showing weakness and had fallen below its 50-dMA. Nvidia bounced up negating my issues. Now we’ll see if its 50-dMA holds this time around. There is now a double-top formation but let’s not get wound up over that. The NVDA chart was from around 3pm so it is not today’s closing price.

Tuesday there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.

Declining indicators are concerning, but there are still plenty of bull indicators so no need to panic.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish until proven otherwise.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, September 22, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

TRUMP SECURED THE BORDER, SO WHERE ARE THE JOBS (WSJ)
“Probably nothing will ever shake President Trump’s belief that illegal immigrants steal job opportunities from Americans. Mr. Trump insists that our labor markets are zero-sum, meaning that a job taken by a newcomer is one fewer job available for someone already here. Yet it’s worth noting that the past decade of fluctuating migration levels and unemployment rates seriously undermines that claim...For the first time since 2021, the number of people looking for work exceeds the number of job openings. It’s another sign that the labor market is softening and that the president’s immigration and tariff policies aren’t having the intended economic effect. If the White House doesn’t do a better job of balancing border security and economic growth, things could get a lot worse before they improve.” - Jason L. Riley, Opinion Columnist, Upward Mobility, The Wall Street Journal
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-secured-the-border-so-where-are-the-jobs-64cee458?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAguvj7DNdKHe1IMRJQZeGQIfTqpx52_FKdO5992o3GM4pxcct-9AJW7y-OeJEU%3D&gaa_ts=68d0b2f1&gaa_sig=7ZypW0s9avIUrFzofdEM1a6QYQX5-QD22wkTdoeP4KZJjb56Fkxnn99Cm0E7VIu3yRH9DwmUkN2Z8fuu0SOqww%3D%3D

“Meredith Whitney earned her “Oracle of Wall Street” nickname by calling the 2008 financial crisis before it hit. Now, nearly two decades later, she sees fresh trouble brewing in the U.S. housing market. “Existing home sales are tracking under 4 million on an annualized basis and that’s the worst in over 25 years. Buyers are looking for steep discounts and sellers are not willing to make those discounts,” Whitney said in a recent interview with MarketWatch... The consequence? Persistently high prices on inventory that does exist. Combined with elevated interest rates, that makes homeownership harder than ever to achieve.” Story at...
The ‘Oracle of Wall Street’ who predicted 2008 crash sees trouble in US housing — and says boomers aren’t as rich as many think. Why that’s a problem
My cmt: Existing home sales are considered a lagging economic indicator, suggesting that the economy may be worse than it appears on the surface. I am not an economist. Rather than trying to guess the condition of the economy, I follow the stock market. The market tends to be a leading indicator. Currently, market participants are not worried.

MIDDLE TO LOWER INCOME CUSTOMER TRENDS (The Street)
“...we see more adjustments in middle and lower-income households than we do with higher-income households. In discretionary categories where item prices have gone up, we see a corresponding moderation in units at the item level as customers switch to other items or in some cases, categories," he [Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart] said. That's very similar to what McDonald's CEO Christopher J. Kempczinski shared during the chain's second-quarter earnings call regarding U.S. consumer behavior. ‘Certainly, overall QSR [Quick Service Restaurant] traffic in the U.S. remained challenging as visits across the industry by low-income consumers once again declined by double digits versus the prior year period. Reengaging the low-income consumer is critical as they typically visit our restaurants more frequently than middle- and high-income consumers,’ he said.” Story at...
Walmart CEO shares customer trend McDonald's boss noticed too
My cmt: I think the problem is sticker shock. A Big Mac meal (sandwich, fries, and a drink) now costs about $9.29 on average nationally. In 2014, the price was about $5.69.

CARDBOARD BOX DEMAND IS SLUMPING. THAT’S BAD NEWS FOR THE ECONOMY (WSJ)
“Cardboard-box demand is slumping, flashing a potential warning about the health of the American consumer given that goods ranging from pizzas to ovens are transported in corrugated packaging.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/business/cardboard-box-demand-is-slumping-why-thats-bad-news-for-the-economy-e6ec42da?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAikJKueyuFmO-kVvnC-7P0VWB_tmDlphseuSipf1w_vFDerCLB1qcSvUs3Aqj4%3D&gaa_ts=68d1e144&gaa_sig=e0L1QSDRrcQBtcEHwG3RmnOOZ9ajG0LXhCyktP2pB1Sn6fGiWyK5s64py5EIDPFAwpqkDBV7p4g-ofdWCnpBEg%3D%3D
My cmt: As if we didn’t already have enough to worry about.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6694.
-VIX rose about 4% to 16.10. (Options players are expecting more volatility.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.147% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
NOT MUCH CHANGE:
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) {Friday’s number was +4 not +5 as reported Friday} and remains a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.

Once again, we saw High unchanged volume Monday. I know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.

On Monday there was another new all-time high for the S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 5.1% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today. That number is below the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a warning, i.e., new-highs’ are ok, but I’d like to see them higher.

As noted previously, while indicators have drifted into neutral territory, there are still plenty of bull signs so I am not overly concerned.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish until proven otherwise. We can re-evaluate when the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend line.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, September 19, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

Additional Commentary at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/cass_freight_data_have_bad_news_for_stocks/

BULL TRAP? (Barron’s)
“...there is one other notable index that isn’t taking part in the broader market surge: the Dow Jones Transportation Average. In fact, it’s down more than 1.5% this year—and that could be a worrisome sign...Charles Dow, co-founder and editor of The Wall Street Journal. Basically, the theory states that the Transports need to move higher in tandem with the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average members to confirm that a broader market rally has legs. That isn’t happening now.” Story at...
Beware This ‘Bull Trap’ as Stocks Keep Hitting New Highs

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6664.
-VIX declined about 2% to 15.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.133% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +7 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and has declined to a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.

Today was an options expiration day with huge volumes. I am always reluctant to put too much emphasis on days like today. Indicators declined today. Declining-issues outpaced advancing-issues 2 to 1. Advancing volume was weak too. Was that due to profit taking in the Russel 2000 small caps? It may have been. Still, I try to trust the 50-indicator ensemble so I am watching markets closely.

On Friday there was another new all-time high for the S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 5.7% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today. That number is below the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a warning, i.e., it’s ok, but I’d like to see it higher.

I am considering Goldman Sachs, but I’ve been holding off due to falling indicators. It has been one of my highest momentum picks. Zacks wrote the following:
“Investors should take the time to consider GS for their portfolios due to its solid Zacks Ranks, notable earnings metrics, and impressive Momentum and VGM Style Scores. From...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/momentum-investor-1-stock-could-135002028.html

While indicators have drifted into neutral territory, there are still plenty of bull signs so I am not overly concerned.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish until proven otherwise. We can re-evaluate when the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend line.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Leading Economic Indicators ... Philly Fed Index ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

“We had some new lows over the weekend with the MAGA gang desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them and with everything they can to score political points from it.” – Jimmy Kimmel, suspended host of a former late night TV show on Disney owned ABC.
“Representative Robert Garcia, a California Democrat and ranking member on the House Oversight Committee, slammed ABC’s decision to suspend Jimmy Kimmel’s show.” From...
Jimmy Kimmel’s late night show pulled off air ‘indefinitely’ after Charlie Kirk comments: Live Updates
My cmt: So Kimmel thinks the shooter was MAGA?
I rarely listen to right-wing radio because it’s so predictably pro-Trump, but I was curious about their position on the Kimmel firing. I was a little surprised to find that “Clay & Buck” (Fox radio, noon to 3 locally) were opposed to his firing. For them, it was a matter of content and they were not happy that a comedian got fired for an off-hand comment. They recognized with different parties in power; the powers might come for them.

“A Texas State University student who was filmed mocking the assassination of Charlie Kirk at a memorial event has been expelled.
The student, who has not been named, was caught on camera mimicking the conservative influencer’s killing in an apparent attempt to taunt a group of his supporters on the school’s campus.” Story at...
Texas University student expelled for mocking Charlie Kirk murder

Virtual Hatred: How Russia Tried to Start a Race War in the United States (Univ of Michigan)
“During the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the Russian government engaged in a sophisticated strategy to influence the U.S. political system and manipulate American democracy. While most news reports have focused on the cyber-attacks aimed at Democratic Party leaders and possible contacts between Russian officials and the Trump presidential campaign, a more pernicious intervention took place. Throughout the campaign, Russian operatives created hundreds of fake personas on social media platforms and then posted thousands of advertisements and messages that sought to promote racial divisions in the United States. This was a coordinated propaganda effort.” - Michigan Journal of Race and Law > Volume 24 > Issue 2 (2019) Story at...
https://repository.law.umich.edu/mjrl/vol24/iss2/2/
My cmt: Some of the current political vitriol on both sides is fomented by Russian & Chinese intelligence – count on it.

PHILLY FED BUSINESS INDEX (Phlly FED)
“Responses to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest regional manufacturing activity weakened this month. The indicators for current activity and new orders dipped into negative territory, while the shipments index declined but remained positive. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment, and the price indexes rose further above their long-run averages. The survey’s broad indicators for future activity suggest that firms continue to expect growth over the next six months.” Report at...
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2025-08

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Initial applications for jobless benefits in the US dropped by the most in nearly four years, reversing an unusually large jump in the prior week and consistent with low levels of layoffs in the economy. Initial claims decreased by 33,000 to 231,000 in the week ended Sept. 13, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That’s in line with levels seen throughout this year and not far off the pre-pandemic trend...” Story at...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/us-initial-jobless-claims-drop-by-most-in-almost-four-years

LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board)
“In August, the US LEI registered its largest monthly decline since April 2025...Among its components, only stock prices and the Leading Credit Index supported the LEI in August and over the past six months...Overall, the LEI suggests that economic activity will continue to slow. A major driver of this slowdown has been higher tariffs, which already trimmed growth in H1 2025 and will continue to be a drag on GDP growth in the second half of this year and in H1 2026. The Conference Board, while not forecasting recession currently, expects GDP to grow by only 1.6% in 2025...” Story at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/?utm_term=&utm_campaign=TCB+%7C+C-Suite+Perspectives+%7C+PMAX&utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=ppc&hsa_acc=7966952753&hsa_cam=22625443146&hsa_grp=&hsa_ad=&hsa_src=x&hsa_tgt=&hsa_kw=&hsa_mt=&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22631709008&gbraid=0AAAAADpIWanHDVe5qBMZaV4eAD4PttFiu&gclid=Cj0KCQjw267GBhCSARIsAOjVJ4HwuH9OJq8PJjABR4pztLk9Ag58ocFS1UWad3VSgKfdg8oR8uA9O6oaAmjTEALw_wcB

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6632.
-VIX declined about 0.1% to 15.70.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.11% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from 11 to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is giving a Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it reversed down – a bearish sign.

I was considering adding to stock positions, given the Nvidia-Intel news (Nvidia and Intel have agreed to work together; Nvidia made a $5-Billion investment into Intel.), but indicators fell to neutral when I made a preliminary check of indicators around mid-day. That put me in a more cautious mood and I held off adding any stocks.

On Thursday there was another new all-time high for the S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 5.4% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today. That number is below the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a warning. It suggests market breadth is weak but good enough.

Checking the “Summary of 50 Indicator Spread” chart (above), we note that the 10-dMA of spread has not changed much in the last month while the S&P 500 has marched higher. We don’t like to see divergence between the indicators and price, but divergence is not unusual, especially in the short run. No need to get too concerned. Indicators are still bullish.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish until proven otherwise. We can re-evaluate when the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend line.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Fed Funds ... Housing ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

A TARIFF LESSON FOR COFFEE DRINKERS (WSJ-Excerpt)
“President Trump’s tariffs are coursing through the American (and world) economy, even if their macro effects are taking time to show up in the national statistics... The price of a pound of unroasted Brazilian beans has jumped to more than $6 from $4.50 [wholesale], says Dan Hunnewell, the owner of Coffee Bros., a specialty supplier in New York. He’s trying to keep his own prices steady “as long as possible,” he adds. “I will even eat some of the difference.” But if the 50% tariffs on Brazil continue, he expects to raise prices ‘pretty significantly...’” - WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-tariff-lesson-for-coffee-drinkers-brazil-trade-trump-24e595c7?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjO9wsojqiz2EVHTeRG6kGIcEj0QeQNR-6jyBSTH8mIjmpgWwKg4t4CN2HWAtY%3D&gaa_ts=68cb01b1&gaa_sig=FNwUEn76bXbbRmporRz-SsHtRXD2mD3Pd2LHJmpAMU0Qdr7JHhoB4NR9eXvenrzfuAbpZ4mpj6vZd_WbDNz92A%3D%3D

THE MARKET IS RISKIER (WSJ-Excerpt)
“Investors have a strange relationship with risk. On the one hand, they want it: Risk brings reward when it works out. On the other hand, unrewarded risk is the very last thing anyone wants...This is relevant to today’s stock market because the market is riskier than it used to be...
... it is much more concentrated in a handful of stocks than in modern times. That means investors who simply track the market are taking much more single-stock risk than in the past...
...The concentration is well-known, but that doesn’t stop it from being scary. Buy the S&P 500, and the top five stocks make up 27.7% of the portfolio, up from 11.7% a decade ago and the same as in 1964...Who wants to diversify when concentration has worked so well?...In the past, lots of people...it’s worth hedging your bets...” - James Mackintosh. Senior Markets Columnist, The Wall Street Journal.
Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-markets-riskier-than-it-used-to-beand-investors-love-it-8eecddc2?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAiNDmvIpAMpfGRMzWGG_8bi_S1Vhd9PqDFeX6c7paXjWgu4mKYAlY9Fggr2oeA%3D&gaa_ts=68caf9b3&gaa_sig=is_oLHatBpL-Sv0jeraeQUpd5iWH44ubm1SA07mkMTmiiT9oelJ8i4d2zHiq-8z7lZjKEBmfHFgW3zk1NdIEeA%3D%3D
My cmt: There were several more risk elements mentioned in the article. It’s interesting, because my numbers don’t fully support the premise. At a recent all-time high on the S&P 500, almost 9% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs. That is well above the 5-year average for this stat and it suggests a healthy participation in the market. So as measured by issues, the markets are not overly concentrated. It’s possible that they are too concentrated based on the size of the leaders, but that’s not a number that I track. I suspect that in the past when markets have been concentrated, the companies that everyone was piling into were large too – think Exxon, Microsoft, etc, - so this concern may be overblown at present. Will it stay that way? We can only guess.

FED FUNDS (CNBC)
“The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered the benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter percentage point, and expects two more rate cuts could be made by the year’s end. However, the members see the new year bringing just one more quarter-point cut.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/17/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html

"While the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers." – Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This comment was made in the Jackson Hole speech and reiterated today, 17 September.

HOUSING STARTS (Yahoo Finance)
“Single-family homebuilding continues to lag expectations: -7% month over month and -12% year over year...Building Permits, also expected to come in around 1.37 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units for the month, fell as well: to 1.312 million. This is a pretty undeniable softening in the forward-looking housing starts market...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-starts-decreased-august-151300211.html

CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 9.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 415.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6600.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.72.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.087% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

S&P 500 daily chart shows the usual volatility on the day the Fed announces its rate decision. After all the turmoil, the S&P 500 was little changed.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from 12 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is still giving a Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remains headed higher – a bullish sign.

Nvidia has broken its lower trend line and its 50-dMA. This isn’t a great sign when the market leader looks weak. Nvidia can be very volatile – let’s hope the weakness is confined to this issue.

Wednesday, we again note that Unchanged volume is high, a sign of confusion that some believe precedes a change in market direction. It was also very high on Monday. I’ve never included this in my indicators since it is wrong much more than right.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish until proven otherwise. We can re-evaluate when the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend line.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)