“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
WW III HAS ALREADY BEGUN (Moneywise via msn.com)
“The head of America’s largest bank told an audience at
the Institute of International Finance that his team is running scenarios in
preparation for a global conflict involving nuclear powers. Jamie Dimon, CEO of
JPMorgan Chase, told the crowd that war was imminent and nuclear proliferation
was a greater existential threat than climate change.”
‘World
War III has already begun,’ Jamie Dimon warns — says he and his team are
preparing for serious conflict with Russia, China. 3 assets to protect yourself
in 2025
HOUSING STARTS / BUILDING PERMITS (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in October
likely as Hurricanes Helene and Milton depressed activity in the South while
permits rose slightly, indicating that an anticipated rebound probably would be
muted by higher mortgage rates... Single-family housing starts, which account
for the bulk of homebuilding, plunged 6.9%... Permits for future construction
of single-family housing gained 0.5%...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-housing-starts-134759234.html
GIVING BACK THE POST ELECTION BOOM (Heritage Capital)
“After the initial “risk on” market surge the day after
the election, not much has happened. In fact, some indices are lower... Markets
saw a surge with some follow through. Now, all but the initial surge has been
given back. And don’t be surprised if the initial surge goes away before
Thanksgiving. That would not necessarily be a bad thing. In fact, I think it
would set the stage for a solid year-end rally lasting into January... The
recent pullback isn’t a major, belling ringing buy. But it is a tidy little
pullback in an ongoing and strong bull market. At a minimum I expect a bounce
on Monday or Tuesday. And I remain in the “buy weakness” mode until proven
otherwise.” – Paul Schatz, President
Heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/markets-giving-back-post-election-boom/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5917.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.396%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs
and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -5 (5 more Bear
indicators than Bull indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -5 is a BEARISH to NEUTRAL indication.
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the
chart above) reversed lower today so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is
Bearish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for
sell signals.)
Some of the bearsih
indicators were: Smoothed up-volume is falling; 10-day Breadth turned negative;
there was another Hindenburg Omen; Utilities are outperforming the S&P 500;
new-high/new-low data is bearish; the S&P 500 has gotten to far ahead of other
issues on the NYSE.
Market Internals were
relatively flat Tuesday while the S&P 500 managed to climb higher.
We still may have seen an
end to the selling, but it is not encouraging to see indicators fall as they
did today. On a good note, the S&P 500 is only 2.2% above its 50-dMA, so
a retreat from today’s close would not
have far to go before it meets strong resistance.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish on the markets.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been
replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials. It will take me a while to make changes to my
programming.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The fact that so many successful politicians are such
shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on
us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.” - Thomas Sowell
WHY TRUMP WANTS HEGSETH AT DEFENSE (WSJ)
“The choice of Mr. Hegseth has shocked many in
Washington, and that by itself might be a recommendation. He could hardly do
worse than the so-called adults in the room of recent years. The armed services
can’t make their recruiting quotas, America’s military industrial base has been
exposed as inadequate with little protest from Pentagon leaders, and no one in
the civilian or military ranks was held accountable for the Afghanistan
debacle.
The 44-year-old Mr. Hegseth has combat experience in
Afghanistan and Iraq and has maintained his military ties as an officer in the
National Guard. He has been an advocate for veterans, both on TV and as a
member of veterans groups. He’s smart and telegenic. Yet he’s never run a big
institution, much less one of the largest and most hidebound on the planet...
Mr. Trump’s first term was a security success because he followed a policy of
peace through strength. But the world is more dangerous now, and the mix of his
nominees suggests his second term is likely to be a wilder ride.” WSJ Editorial
Board. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/pete-hegseth-secretary-of-defense-donald-trump-pentagon-military-fox-news-6ea89c1a?mod=opinion_trendingnow_article_pos1
TRUMP KEEPS TROLLING (WSJ)
“Pete Hegseth as defense secretary? This is
unserious and deeply alarming. He is a decorated military veteran with Ivy
League degrees, but he has no serious governmental or managerial experience, no
history of international accomplishment... As for Matt Gaetz being nominated as
attorney general—well, this is just straight-out trolling, right? The four-term
Florida congressman has won a reputation as disruptive, divisive, aggressive,
lacking in groundedness and wisdom, and dogged by ethics allegations. He seems
to see politics as an offshoot of showbiz and has entertained his followers
with successive attempts to take down GOP leaders in the House, on behalf
of—well, it’s never quite clear. This we need in America’s top law-enforcement
official?... Mr. Trump often confuses his own antic malice for daring,
his own unseriousness for boldness. How amazing that in the rosy glow of
election, he will spend so much political capital and goodwill on confirmation
fights he may well, and certainly deserves to, lose.” – Peggy Noonan. Opinion
at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-keeps-trolling-as-the-resistance-fades-appointments-confirmations-cope-a6a8bd40?mod=trending_now_opn_5
FINAL TALLY ON ELECTION NUMBERS
Trump’s 2024 votes: 76,431,000, 3% more than when he lost
to Biden.
Trump’s 2020 votes: 74,224,000
Harris’ 2024 Votes: 73,738,000
Biden’s 2020 Votes: 81,284,000
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5894.
-VIX declined about 3% to 15.58.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.414%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs
and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -1 (1 more Bear
indicator than Bull indicators). (Friday’s spread should have been +1;
the Hindenburg Omen remains until the McClellan Oscillator turns positive.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -1 remains a NEUTRAL indication.
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the
chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is
Bullish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for
sell signals.)
I noted Friday that it is
likely that we may have seen an end to selling Friday. Today was a good first
start, but we’ll need to see some follow through. On a good note, there are still
enough bull signs to suggest that a significant correction is unlikely.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been
replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials. It will take me a while to make changes to my
programming.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The fact that so many successful politicians are such
shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on
us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.” - Thomas Sowell
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize
half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin
Let me count the ways. – Michael Ramirez.
From...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html#/
My cmt: How is it possible to lose to Trump? Trump got
the same number of votes in 2024 as he got in 2020 when he lost to Biden. The difference was that Biden got 10-million
more votes that Harris. In other words, 10-million Democrats and Independents
stayed home rather than vote for Harris. Why? See above.
RETAIL SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“October retail sales grew from the prior month,
reflecting continued resilience in the American consumer. Retail sales rose
0.4% in October.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/october-retail-sales-top-estimates-september-spending-revised-sharply-higher-133733716.html
NY FED MANUFACTURING (CNY Central News)
“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a survey
detailing manufacturing trends in New York state. The report found
manufacturing activity grew in New York state in November, with sharp increases
in new orders and shipments. The survey went on to say price increases remained
steady, and firms remained optimistic about future conditions.” Story at...
https://www.cnycentral.com/news/local/empire-state-manufacturing-survey-shows-steady-growth-in-new-york-businesses
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Yahoo Finance / Bloomberg)
“US industrial production declined in October as the
impacts from a Boeing Co. machinists’ strike and a pair of hurricanes
reverberated through manufacturing for a second month.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-industrial-production-falls-strike-144818873.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.3% to 5871.
-VIX rose about 12.8% to 16.14.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly
(compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.445%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs
and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +3 (3 more Bull
indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +3 is back to a NEUTRAL indication.
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the
chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is
Bullish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for
sell signals.)
Friday, there was Higher
than normal unchanged-volume, but not as high as those supposed reversal
signals. Still this could be reversal sign – maybe back up? Wishful
thinking. This indicator is not reliable. And speaking of unreliable... There
was a Hindenburg Omen today...
Hindenburg Omen: (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindenburgomen.asp).
As we’ve noted before, the Omen sends a lot of false warnings. Further, the
Fosback New-high/new-low Logic indicator uses a similar analytic approach, but
it is closer to buy than sell, so I won’t get too worried about the Hindenburg
signal.
Friday was a statistically significant down-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost
always occur on Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all
statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms, i.e., today could have
been an end to the weakness we have seen recently in the markets, but it is far
from certain.
Still, it is likely that
we may have seen an end to selling today. We’ll see...
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced
by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials. It will take me a while to make changes to my
programming.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“The fact that so many successful politicians are such
shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on
us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.” - Thomas Sowell
TRUMP PICKS GAETZ AS ATTORNEY GENERAL (NBC News)
“President-elect Donald Trump stunned Senate Republicans
by announcing Wednesday that he will nominate Rep. Matt
Gaetz, R-Fla., to be attorney general. Gaetz, a Trump loyalist known for being
a rabble-rouser in Congress, will need a majority of the Senate to be confirmed
as the country’s top law enforcement officer. Republicans will have a majority of 52 or 53 seats beginning Jan. 3,
depending on the outcome of the Pennsylvania Senate race.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-baffles-republican-senators-picking-matt-gaetz-attorney-general-rcna180048
My cmt: It seems unlikely that he will be confirmed by
the Senate. No wonder Trump is demanding recess appointments for his cabinet.
TRUMP CHOOSES RFK Jr. FOR HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES
(CNBC)
“Shares of vaccine makers fell Thursday as
President-elect Donald Trump nominated Robert
F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, to lead the Department of Health
and Human Services... Health policy experts have said a second Trump term could
allow Kennedy to elevate anti-vaccine rhetoric, which could deter more
Americans from receiving Covid shots and routine immunizations that have for
decades saved millions of lives and prevented debilitating illnesses.” Story
at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/14/vaccine-maker-stocks-fall-as-trump-chooses-rfk-jr-to-lead-hhs.html
My cmt: Some of his misleading statements in interviews:
-
"There's no vaccine that is, you know, safe
and effective."
-
"I do believe that autism comes from
vaccines."
-
"Vaccines are exempt from
placebo-controlled trials."
PPI (UPI)
“Wholesale Producer Price Index inflation rose 0.2% in
October and is up 2.4% annually, according to a Thursday report from the Bureau
of Labor Statistics. The PPI numbers matched the Dow Jones consensus forecast.” Story at...
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2024/11/14/PPI-inflation-October-BLS/8251731602265/
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment
benefits fell to the lowest level in six months last week as layoffs remain at
relatively healthy levels. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless
claim applications fell by 4,000 to 217,000 for the week of Nov. 9.” Story
at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/number-american-filing-jobless-claims-133857725.html
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.1 million barrels from the
previous week. At 429.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
4% below the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 5949.
-VIX rose about 0.5% to 14.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly
(compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.447%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs
and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +7 (7 more Bull
indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +7 is a bullish indication.
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the
chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is
Bullish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for
sell signals.)
Actually, Wednesday, not
Tuesay, there was High, unchanged-volume. A possible reversal sign, but
often wrong.
The daily 50-indicator spread improved, but I watch the
10-dMA more carefully since it is a smoothed version of the data. So far, the
10-day data looks good. The S&P 500 has fallen three days in a row. Will
the Index return to its 50-dMA? I doubt it since it was just there 8-days ago,
but it’s always possible.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced
by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials. It will take me a while to make changes to my
programming.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life,
son." – Dean Vernon Wormer.
“Taking stock as the markets enter a new week, we have
fresh all-time highs in all major stock market indices except the Russell
2000... which I continue to believe will be at all-time highs this quarter.” –
Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital. From...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/post-rally-continues-small-caps-poised-for-aths/
CPI (CNBC)
“Inflation perked up in October though pretty much in
line with Wall Street expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
Wednesday.
The consumer
price index, which measures costs across a spectrum of goods and
services, increased 0.2% for the month. That took the 12-month inflation rate
to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September... [The Core] 12-month
inflation rate [rose] to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September.” Story
at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/13/cpi-inflation-october-2024.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about a point to 5985.
-VIX declined about 5% to 14.02. (The options players seem
more bullish than the stock folks.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.451%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs
and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +3 (3 more Bull
indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +3 is a neutral indication.
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the
chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is
Bullish.. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for
sell signals.)
Tuesday there was High,
unchanged-volume. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator
suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The trend has been higher
for a while. Does that mean a reversal lower is in the works? Possibly, but perhaps
the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is
not one of my indicators because it is often wrong. The last time we saw this
signal the S&P 500 declined about 1% before turning higher.
“The Smart Money Index was popularized by Don
Hayes in the 1990s. It is a technical indicator that attempts to gauge what the
“smart money” is doing relative to the “dumb money” in the U.S. stock market...
The idea here is that the majority of traders (news-driven,
emotional) make their trades at the opening bell because of the overnight
economic data and news. On the other hand, the more experienced traders jump
into the market [near] the close having the chance to evaluate market
performance. The difference reflects the net trading of these “smarter”
traders.” From...
https://www.warriortrading.com/smart-money-index/
I use an alternative version since I only look at what
investors are doing in “late-day-action.” In other words, I am tracking the “smart
money” not the dumb money. Currently, my version of the Smart Money Indicator
is falling showing that recently, late-day trading has been bearish.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets, but with indicators giving a
neutral indication I wouldn’t add new money at this point. I’m not planning any
change to the portfolio, but that could change if indicators continue to fall.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been
replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials. It will take me a while to make changes to my
programming.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life,
son." – Dean Vernon Wormer.
SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The NFIB Small
Business Optimism Index rose by 2.2 points in October to 93.7.
This is the 34th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98... “Although
optimism is on the rise on Main Street, small business owners are still facing
unprecedented economic adversity. Low sales, unfilled jobs openings, and
ongoing inflationary pressures continue to challenge our Main Streets, but
owners remain hopeful as they head toward the holiday season.” Press release
at...
https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-on-the-rise-in-october/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 5984.
-VIX declined about 2% to 14.71.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.429%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs
and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +8 (8 more Bull
indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +8 is remains bullish – it’s
not unusual to see indicators decline on a down-day, so no big deal.
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the
chart above) is bullish since it is moving higher. (I follow the 10-dMA for
trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.) That is the
important signal for today.
Markets don’t go up every day.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been
replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials. It will take me a while to make changes to my
programming.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
"Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is the
probable reason why so few engage in it.” - Henry Ford
HOW DID TRUMP WIN?
Precinct by precinct, we see that the population centers
are Democratic strongholds.
As of Monday (and most votes have now been counted),
Trump has 74,878,000 votes. This is insignificantly more than the 74,224,000
votes Trump received in 2020. In 2020, Biden, who was considered a moderate at
the time, received 81,284,000 votes, far more than the 71,378,000 Harris
received in 2024. Smaller parties (Libertarian, Green, Independent and others)
received 2.7 million votes in 2024 compared to 2.3 million votes in 2020.
One of my “out there” republican acquaintances predicted
that Trump would win because moderate Democrats and Independents wouldn’t vote
for Harris. It looks like he was right. Apparently, about 10 million people who
voted in 2020 sat out the 2024 election.
As I suggested last week, Trump didn’t win this election, the Democrats
lost it. – Navigate the Stock Market Blog.
A DEMOCRAT PONDERS A THUMPING REBUKE (WSJ excerpt)
“The Democrats have come to regard white working-class
voters as “reactionary and racist,” Mr. Teixeira [Ruy Teixeira, Senior Fellow
at the American Enterprise Institute] says. Those voters already defected to
Mr. Trump in 2016, but what killed the Democrats this year was “losing nonwhite
working-class voters hand over fist.” Mr. Teixeira notes that Barack
Obama “carried the nonwhite working class or noncollege voters by 67
points. Harris has carried them with 33. That’s a halving of the margin among
those who should have been the bulwark, the core, of the Democratic Party.” –
Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-democrat-ponders-a-thumping-rebuke-party-chose-hard-left-cultural-issues-over-progressive-centrism-ed02e17f?mod=trending_now_opn_1
“When the hyperventilating is done, when scholars go to
work, the real aberration of our time was the Democratic Party. In three
successive elections, it manufactured fake evidence that its opponent was a
Kremlin agent, orchestrated an intelligence conspiracy to cover up its own
candidate’s family scandal, then tried to orchestrate the nomination of a
senile president, which collapsed into chaos on the eve of its party
convention.
An unavoidable part of this story is a blinkered national
press whose self-image has fallen out of any realistic relation to its true
nature, which has taken the human propensity for lickspittleism and turned it
up to 11.” -
Holman W.
Jenkins, Jr., WSJ Editorial Staff. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/fake-news-and-the-untold-story-of-three-presidential-elections-trump-washington-post-d806f403?mod=opinion_feat3_columnists_pos3
-
Lickspittle: “a person who praises and tries to
please people in authority, usually in order to get some advantage from them” –
Cambridge Dictionary.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6001.
-VIX rose about 0.2% to 14.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was unchanged
(compared to about this time, prior trading day) at 4.306%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs
and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +15 (15 more Bull
indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +15 is strongly bullish. The
10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is bullish
too since it is moving higher. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and
as an indicator for sell signals.)
Today, Monday, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high. 15.5%
of all issues on the NYSE made new 52-week, new-highs on those days. That’s a good number that demonstrates a
broad advance with healthy breadth.
Bollinger Bands have cleared their negative signal for
the time being.
Today’s 3 bear-signals are not cause for worry because
they are far outnumbered by bull-signs.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been
replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials. It will take me a while to make changes to my
programming.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
