Navigate the Stock Market

Monday, November 4, 2024

Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to -11 (11 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -11 is bearish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) remained bearish since it is still moving lower. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)

In addition to the 4 bull signs we saw Friday, a smoothed up-volume indicator has turned bullish and the daily spread improved from -12 to -11. If we look back at the previous five lows in the above chart, we note that the indicator-spread has bottomed when the S&P 500 bottomed. That would indicate that the pullback is probably over.

The S&P 500 closed only slightly higher than its 50-dMA on Thursday and again on Monday; that is more evidence that the weakness is over.

The election is weighing on investors.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral on the markets, even though the indicators are bearish. Evidence increased that the weakness is finished, or close to finished. I may be adding to stocks Tuesday. It depends on market action.

If the daily bull-Bear spread improves I’ll probably increase stock holdings.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

...My current invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, November 1, 2024

Unemployment Rate ... Payroll Report ... ISM Manufacturing ... Construction Spending ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

Political commentary from Michael Ramirez at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html#/

PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Morningstar)
“The US economy added 12,000 jobs in October, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics... The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%... The BLS said job growth was likely depressed by the two hurricanes that hit the southeast in October. In addition, strike activity was a detractor.” Story at...
https://www.morningstar.com/economy/october-us-jobs-report-12000-rise-payrolls-likely-depressed-by-hurricanes

ISM MANUFACTURING (prnewswire)
"The Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.5 percent in October, 0.7 percentage point lower compared to the 47.2 percent recorded in September. This is the lowest Manufacturing PMI® reading in 2024. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 54th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-46-5-october-2024-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-302293215.html

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Forest Economic Advisors)
“A closer look at the US Census Bureau’s construction spending report for September, with a focus on residential spending and additional analysis provided by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), reveals that private residential construction spending trended up 0.2%. Year-over-year, construction spending was 4.1% higher.” From...
https://getfea.com/end-use/us-private-residential-construction-spending-increases-0-2-in-september

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 5729.
-VIX declined about 6% to 21.88.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.386%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -12 (12 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -12 is bearish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) remained bearish since it is still moving lower. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.) There’s worse news – there were only 4 bull indicators. 2 of those are related to breadth. Breadth has been weak on a shorter 10-day trend, but it has been OK on longer term measures. The other 2 bull signs are: (1) XLU (Utilities) are underperforming the S&P 500 and (2) the statistical-analysis that I mentioned yesterday is suggesting a bottom due to the large down-day at the 50-dMA.

There were other bear signs, today there was another Hindenburg Omen (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindenburgomen.asp). As we’ve noted before, the Omen sends a lot of false warnings.

The Fosback New-high/new-low Logic indicator uses a similar analytic approach, but it is closer to buy than sell, so I won’t get too worried about the Hindenburg signal.

I think the biggest worry now is the declining daily, bull-bear spread. We have seen that if the number of Bull-indicators drops to zero, the stock performance that followed has been dismal. On a positive note, the S&P 500 closed only slightly higher than its 50-dMA on Thursday and that may be enough to put an end to the weakness.

BOTTOM LINE
As noted yesterday:
I’m neutral on the markets, even though the indicators are bearish. I suspect that the weakness is close to finished. That’s not a well-informed opinion – there’s not much evidence yet, other than the chart and a couple of statistical indicators. We may have to wait until the election is over before the market get’s out of its funk.

If the daily bull-Bear spread improves I’ll probably increase stock holdings.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” - Albert Einstein

Political commentary from Michael Ramirez at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html#/

“In perhaps seven states, a voter might conceivably feel an obligation to vote because the outcome is in doubt. To the rest, I say: relax. We’ve been bludgeoned unconscionably but the election isn’t existential. To conservatives, it’s a pretty good year. Kamala Harris is their best possible Democrat—no apparent leadership gene, elevated by accident, dependent on reflexive and droning support from progressives whom 95% of America don’t identify with.
There are many paths to a revived conservative agenda, including tying up President Harris in knots while getting the next GOP generation ready.” - Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.. member of the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/conservatives-can-be-optimists-2024-presidential-election-10558c74

JOBLESS CLAIMS / PCE PRICE (Yahoo Finance)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a five-month low last week and consumer spending increased more than expected in September, showcasing the economy's strength heading into the final stretch of 2024... Though prices pushed higher last month, inflation is firmly on a downward trend, with other data on Thursday showing labor costs posting their smallest gain in more than three years in the third quarter... Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended Oct. 26...” tory at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-123827119.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1.9% to 5705.
-VIX jumped about 14% to 23.16.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.282%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -11 (11 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -11 is bearish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) remained bearish since it is still moving lower. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)

Thursday there was a Hindenburg Omen signal. Investopedia says, “The Hindenburg Omen is a technical indicator that was designed to signal the increased probability of a stock market crash. It compares the percentage of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows in stock prices to a predetermined reference percentage that is supposed to predict the increasing likelihood of a market crash... The Hindenburg Omen looks for a statistical deviation from the premise that under normal conditions, some stocks are either making new 52-week highs or new 52-week lows. It would be abnormal if both were occurring at the same time.” From Investopedia at...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindenburgomen.asp
As we’ve noted before, the Omen sends a lot of false warnings.

The Fosback New-high/new-low Logic indicator uses a similar analytic approach, but it is closer to buy than sell, so I won’t get too worried about the Hindenburg signal.

I do statistical analysis of daily moves on the S&P 500. That was the indicator that gave us the “Top within 20-days” warning because the market moves were too subdued showing an unnatural calm. That calm broke today with a panic indicator. The Panic Indicator can be a positive or negative indicator. At a top it is a bear sign; at a bottom it is a bull sign. Now, the S&P 500 has fallen to its 50-dMA, so I consider this indicator bullish. Unfortunately, it is one of only 5 bull-signs today. If the Index continues to fall, I’ll be forced to re-evaluate and switch this indicator to bearish. And speaking of statistical analysis...

Thursday was a statistically-significant. down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time.

The S&P 500 closed only slightly higher than its 50-dMA and that may be enough to put an end to the weakness.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral on the markets, even though the indicators are bearish. I suspect that the weakness is close to finished. That’s not a well-informed opinion – there’s not much evidence yet, other than the chart and a couple of statistical indicators. We may have to wait until the election is over before the market get’s out of its funk.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

ADP Employment ... GDP ... PCE ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” - Albert Einstein

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“It is clear we need to fundamentally change our strategy to win back customers... We have a clear plan and are moving quickly to return Starbucks to growth.” - Brian Niccol Starbucks CEO.
My cmt: I think they need to fundamentally make better coffee. We have been disappointed in the quality and consistency of their offerings recently.

“Both of the candidates worry me. This left, right and fighting each other is a problem as it becomes more of the extremes. I think there needs to be a bringing of Americans together, that middle of that, and making great reforms... There needs to be a strong leader of the middle, I believe, that makes great reforms... Neither of the candidates does that for me.” – Ray Dalio, Chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates

“I’m under the age of 80, I speak in complete sentences, I’m not a convicted felon...It’s a very low bar, but I’ve managed to clear that.” - Chase Oliver, Libertarian candidate for President.

SUPREME COURT FUTURE IS ON THE BALLOT (WSJ)
“Would Kamala Harris support packing the Supreme Court by adding, say, three Justices? She was asked that in a CNN town hall last week, and what a chance to present herself as a safe pair of hands... [Her answer]...
...“The American people increasingly are losing confidence in the Supreme Court, in large part because of the behavior of certain members of that Court and because of certain rulings... So I do believe that there should be some kind of reform of the Court, and we can study what that actually looks like.” There you have it. Ms. Harris has already endorsed President Biden’s plan to impose “ethics” rules on the Justices that would invite political harassment and compromise judicial independence. Now she won’t disavow packing the Court. She has called for Democrats, if they keep the Senate in November, to bypass the 60-vote filibuster rule, letting them enact such bills without even a modicum of compromise...
... If Ms. Harris wins next week, while Democrats hang on to 50 Senate seats, they have promised progressive voters they’ll take a wrecking ball to the current Supreme Court. It used to be a fringe position to propose fundamental “reform” of the Court, but Mr. Biden has embraced it, Ms. Harris has endorsed it, and the Senate Judiciary Committee has passed it.
Democrats are serious. They say Mr. Trump is a threat to democracy and U.S. institutions, while they’re pledging to restructure the judiciary wholesale. Do they notice the cognitive dissonance? Apparently not. But voters might.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-supreme-courts-future-is-on-the-ballot-harris-packing-reform-65de837f

GDP / PCE (CNBC)
“The U.S. economy posted another solid though slightly disappointing period of growth in the third quarter, propelled higher by strong consumer spending that has defied expectations for a slowdown.
Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced during the three-month period from July through September, increased at a 2.8% annualized rate... Personal consumption expenditures, the proxy for consumer activity, increased 3.7% for the quarter, the strongest performance since Q1 of 2023, contributing nearly 2.5 percentage points to the total.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/30/us-gdp-q3-2024.html

ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP via prnewswire)
“Private sector employment increased by 233,000 jobs in October and annual pay was up 4.6 percent year-over-year, according to the October ADP® National Employment Report™ produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab").. "Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October," said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "As we round out the year, hiring in the U.S. is proving to be robust and broadly resilient." Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-233-000-jobs-in-october-annual-pay-was-up-4-6-302291459.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 5814.
-VIX rose about 5% to 20.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.30%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -8 (8 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -8 is bearish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) remained bearish since it is still moving lower. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.) This is slightly worse than the spread I saw today at 2pm, because internals declined late in the day and created another bear sign. Indicators remain under stress.

I sold my leveraged position in QLD (2x Nasdaq 100) today. With indicators falling, it makes sense to cut some risk until the uncertainty is resolved.

The 50-dMA is about 2% lower than today’s close and that’s a strong level of support. I still don’t expect to see a big drop when it does happen assuming we see a decline fairly soon.

Who knows, with Consumer confidence rising, we might even see a pre-election bounce higher.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral on the markets. If the pullback resumes, the drop should be small. While indicators have been falling, the S&P 500 has drifted higher and is now only 0.9% below its all-time high.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Selling QLD

I sold QLD (2x Nasdaq 100) today. Indicators keep drifting down. I don't like to be overinvested in leveraged positions when indicators are declining. As of 2pm, I had 14 Bear-signs and 7 Bull-signs. It's not time to panic; I'm just cutting risk.

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Consumer Confidence ... Dallas FED Services ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

Busy day – I’ll have to be quick.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “In October’s reading, all five components of the Index improved... October’s increase in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

DALLAS FED SERVICES (Dallas FED)
“Texas service sector activity growth continues, outlook improves. Texas service sector activity expanded at about the same pace in October as the prior month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, was little changed at 9.2.” Report at...
https://www.dallasfed.org/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 5833.
-VIX declined about 2% to 19.34.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.256%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -5 (5 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -5 is bearish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) remained bearish since it is still moving lower. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)

Indicators remain under stress. I’m beginning to wonder if we’ll see a quick drop. I still don’t expect a big drop, but the S&P 500 has been treading water to moving slightly higher while internals have been deteriorating and a quick fall is not out of the question.

Indicators are suggesting that the decline may resume, but signals are not particularly strong and that call has not been proven correct so far.

The 50-dMA is about 2-1/2% lower than today’s close and that’s a strong level of support. I don’t expect to see a big drop when it does happen assuming we see a decline fairly soon.

Before I get too bearish I need to note there was a new bullish sign today. Tuesday there was a Bullish Outside Reversal Day.
“Outside reversal is a price chart pattern in investing that occurs when an asset’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low prices of the previous day. It is also known as a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern. It can indicate a change in market trend and provide a trading signal to investors.” From...
https://due.com/terms/outside-reversal/

Who knows, with Consumer confidence rising, we might even see a pre-election bounce higher.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral on the markets. If the pullback resumes, the drop should be small.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals has been bouncing back and forth, but today it declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, October 28, 2024

Dallas FED Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

BIDEN SNUBS THE COURTS AGAIN ON STUDENT LOAN FOREGIVENESS (WSJ)
“‘That didn’t stop me,’ President Biden declared after the Supreme Court blocked his $430 billion student loan write-off in 2023. It sure didn’t. After striking out in court with three debt forgiveness schemes, the Administration on Friday unveiled another. Take that, judges. The Education Department says its proposed rule would authorize forgiveness for some eight million borrowers experiencing ‘hardship.’ ... Courts are playing whack-a-mole with the Administration’s debt write-offs that end-run Congress, which never authorized such broad-based debt forgiveness. Such lawlessness is one reason so many Americans discount the left’s assertions that Donald Trump endangers democracy. Mr. Biden acts like he’s king, and Democrats and media voices cheering him on have no standing to object if Mr. Trump follows the Biden precedent.” - The Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/biden-student-loan-forgiveness-supreme-court-education-department-7af30892

RUSSIA MAKES FAKE ELECTION VIDEO (LA Times)
“Russian actors were behind a widely circulated video falsely depicting mail-in ballots for Donald Trump being destroyed in Pennsylvania, U.S. officials confirmed Friday. The video had taken off on social media Thursday but was debunked within three hours by local election officials and law enforcement after members of the public reported it...the video’s detailed mimicking of ballots in a key county in this year's presidential race was a wake-up call that demonstrated how committed foreign actors are to undermining faith in the U.S. voting process in the critical stretch before voting concludes.” Story at...
Russian actors made fake video depicting mail-in ballots for Trump being destroyed, FBI says

ELECTRICITY IS CHEAPER THAN GAS? (MSN)
“The Biden-Harris administration has made a crackdown on residential fossil fuel consumption a key aspect of its environmental strategy, justifying the push in part on the grounds electrification will lower energy costs. Now, Oct. 17 residential energy price data from the Department of Energy (DOE) shows electricity was roughly four times as expensive as natural gas in 2024, with experts telling the DCNF the White House’s electrification push is an example of extremist climate policy hurting everyday Americans.
“The Department of Energy has consistently shown that natural gas is a much cheaper energy source for households than electricity,” Daren Bakst, director of the Competitive Enterprise Institute’s Center for Energy and Environment, told the DCNF [Daily Caller news Foundation]. “Government policies trying to block the use of natural gas in favor of electricity will significantly drive up prices, making home heating and appliance use needlessly expensive. The poor will get hurt the most because, compared to higher income households, they spend a greater share of their household income on meeting basic needs such as staying warm in the winter.” Story at...
‘Climate Extremism’: Biden-Harris Admin’s Own Data Undermines Its Fav Selling Point In Push To ‘Electrify Everything’

DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING (Dallas Fed)
“Texas factory activity rose notably in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, shot up 18 points to 14.6, its highest reading in more than two years.” Report at...
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2024/2410

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 5824.
-VIX declined about 3% to 19.8.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.282%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -4 (4 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -4 is slightly bearish to neutral. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) remained bearish since it is still moving lower. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)

Indicators continue to slowly decline. I didn’t cut my stocks by much, but I did sell my leveraged position in UWM. I am sitting on that cash until the 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator, Bull-Bear spread turns higher.

Indicators are suggesting that the decline may resume, but signals are not particularly strong. If the markets do turn down, I don’t expect much of a drop.

The 50-dMA is a little more than 2% lower than today’s close.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral on the markets. If the pullback resumes, the drop should be small.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)