Jobless Claims ... Productivity ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
PRIVATE EQUITY – NO THANKS (Business insider via msn)
“Trump signed an executive order on Thursday that will make it easier for several alternative investments to be added to 401(k) accounts. The list includes private equity, which was previously reserved for sophisticated investors.
It's a proposal that's raising red flags among some investment experts, who say a 401(k) should typically be a simple and relatively low-risk investment vehicle. Private equity investments, meanwhile, are often concentrated in a small number of portfolio companies, are less liquid than stocks and bonds, and carry valuations that can be difficult to measure day-to-day.” Story at...
Trump's 401(k) executive order marks big changes for retirement savings — and possibly puts your money at risk
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“In the week ending July 26, 1.974 million continuing claims were filed, up from 1.936 million the week prior and the highest level seen since November 2021, according to data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning... weekly filings for unemployment benefits increased to 226,000 in the week ending Aug. 2, up from 221,000 the week prior.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/continuing-claims-for-unemployment-benefits-hit-highest-level-since-november-2021-125849669.html
 
PRODUCTIVITY (Bloomberg)
“US labor productivity rebounded in the second quarter along with the economy, resuming a trend of efficiency gains that are helping keep a lid on wage-related inflationary pressures.” Story at...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-07/us-productivity-rebounds-in-second-quarter-as-output-picked-up
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6340.
-VIX declined about 1% to 16.57.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.248% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved, but remained bearish at -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued falling – a bearish sign.
 
The below chart is the Buying-Pressure minus Selling Pressure indicator developed (I think) by Lowry Research. I say, “I think” because I’ve never seen this indicator explained by Lowry Research.  The version I use is based on explanations of the indicator by others. As shown in the chart, this indicator remains sharply bearish. We also note that the chart of the S&P 500 looks different than it does in the Indicator Spread Chart and that’s only because the scales are different. So much for detailed chart analysis!  
 

Indicators suggested a correction greater than 10% when the S&P 500 made its all-time high a week ago. That signal is usually correct, but I am beginning to wonder.
 
The indicators have been strongly bearish, but price action hasn’t mirrored the indicators. One wonders whether we’ll see a big reversal higher in the indicators suggesting an end to market weakness.  Currently, several of the bearish indicators are holding on to signals that first occurred several days ago.  They remain bearish until other signals influence those bearish signs.  For example, the Hindenburg Omen occurred last week, but per the Hindenburg rules, it remains in effect until the McClellan Oscillator turns bullish. The 10-dMA of breadth is also negative. If breadth were to improve, the 10-day breadth indicator, McClellan Oscillator and the Hindenburg Omen would flip to neutral or bullish.
 
Indicators are still bearish, so I won’t be adding to stocks now, but it could be soon.  The price action is suggesting this market is hanging on. Maybe we’ll get that rapid improvement in indicators.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Until proven otherwise, I’m bearish. (Trade what you see; not what you think.)
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3 million barrels from the previous week. At 423.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 6345.
-VIX declined about 6% to 16.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.232% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to a bearish -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued falling – a bearish sign.
 
Indicators continued down and that’s not a good sign for the markets. We often see the S&P 500 breakdown when the 10-dMA of the Indicator Spread drops below zero. That occurred today as the spread fell to -1.3.
 
I won’t change my invested position unless indicators reverse higher; now they are headed in the wrong direction.
 
Indicators suggested a correction greater than 10% when the S&P 500 made its all-time high a week ago. Unless there is a recession, a correction of 20% or more is not likely. 
 
I can’t be bullish with indicators looking as weak as they do now, even though markets moved significantly higher today. If we do see a correction, and of course there is no guarantee we will, some levels of support follow: The S&P 500 was 3% above the 50-dMA and 7.4% above the 200-dMA.
 
 
BOTTOM LINE
Until proven otherwise, I’m bearish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

ISM Non-Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
“The NAAIM [National Association of Active Investment Managers] Exposure Index reached a high of 99.3 on July 2, and has been backing off since then even though the SP500 is going higher.  This condition has historically been a problem for the stock market.” – Tom McClellan, McClellan Financial Publications. Commentary at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
“In July, the Services PMI® registered 50.1 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the June figure of 50.8 percent but in expansion territory for the second month in a row... “July’s PMI® level continues to reflect slow growth, and survey respondents indicated that seasonal and weather factors had negative impacts on business. The Employment Index’s continued contraction and faster expansion of the Prices Index are worrisome developments.” Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/july/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 6299.
-VIX rose about 2% to 17.92.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.204% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to a bearish -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued falling – a bearish sign.
 
Are we worried? As we look at the Summary of 50 Indicator Spead chart above, there is a clear divergence between the falling indicators in red and the S&P 500 in black. It’s a worrisome sign.
 
Internals Tuesday weren’t bad, but we aren’t getting any bottom signals suggesting an end to weakness, either, so it’s weakness is likely to continue.
 
Looking at top/Bottom signals, we don’t see any.  Those indicators aimed at identifying Bottoms and Tops (chart below) are currently neutral. A reading of +5 signals a Bottom; -5 signals a Top.  We did see a Top-Signal on 25 July, the day before the most recent top, but no bottom signal yet.
 

If the downturn turns out to be very short-lived, we probably won’t see a bottom signal, but I would expect at least a few indicators will be sending a bullish signal at a bottom.
 
Tuesday, unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back up? Perhaps the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
 
I won’t change my invested position unless indicators reverse higher.
 
Indicators suggested a correction greater than 10% when the S&P 500 made its all-time high a week ago. Unless there is a recession, a correction of 20% or more is not likely. 
 
If we do see a correction, and of course there is no guarantee we will, some levels of support follow: The S&P 500 was 2.5% above the 50-dMA and 6.7% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Until proven otherwise, I’m bearish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Recession? ... Durable Goods ... Factory Orders ... GDP ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
RECESSION?
“The economy is on the precipice of recession. That’s the clear takeaway from last week’s economic data dump...Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall. And with inflation on the rise, it is tough for the Fed to come to the rescue...It’s no mystery why the economy is struggling; blame increasing U.S. tariffs and highly restrictive immigration policy...The tariffs are cutting increasingly deeply into the profits of American companies and the purchasing power of American households. Fewer immigrant workers means a smaller economy...” - Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics.
 
RECESSION WARNING?
“We have consistently emphasized that a slide in labor demand of this magnitude [as was seen Friday] is a recession warning signal. Firms normally maintain hiring gains through growth downshifts they perceive as transitory. In episodes when labor demand slides with a growth downshift, it is often a precursor to retrenchment.” - JPMorgan
 
THE WEIRDEST GDP REPORT – EXCERPT (WSJ)
“The economy grew 3% on an annual basis, but largely because imports collapsed... The crazy swing in imports shows how much Mr. Trump’s up-and-down trade policies have disrupted business decisions and left companies scrambling to adapt. This seems to have had a negative effect on private domestic investment, which fell 15.6% in the second quarter after a surge in the first...The doughty U.S. consumer was less affected, contributing 0.98% to GDP—decent if hardly bullish. But it’s notable that final sales to private domestic purchasers, a key measure of demand, rose only 1.2%. That’s the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2022...There’s no recession signal in the second-quarter numbers, but there’s no boom either.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/gdp-report-economy-consumers-donald-trump-tariffs-d9879d98?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhaO0grLVwnday7d4-UjffhPDBudVRlXK3ZaVl9EfZq5F7z4rISLy-DfT2p2tE%3D&gaa_ts=688e696f&gaa_sig=BGgJCVeQde9jgWGp1Nrr05tF3Z-RI6rVg1yZr1gWsvQ9VOnIONdfulbY3jfI3cY7rxQSKuiR2oNbxMlHzD7ZTA%3D%3D
 
DURABLE GOODS (Advisor Perspectives)
“New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 9.3% to $311.85 in June, the largest monthly decline since 2020. The latest reading was just above the projected 10.4% monthly decline. Compared to a year ago, new orders are up 10.9%.” Commentary at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/25/durable-goods-orders-down-9-3-in-june-less-than-expected
 
FACTORY ORDERS (Census Bureau)
“New orders for manufactured goods in June, down two of the last three months, decreased $30.9 billion or 4.8 percent to $611.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today.” Report at... 
https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/current/index.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.5% to 6330.
-VIX declined about 14% to 17.52.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.198% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved, but remained bearish at -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued falling – a bearish sign.
 
We had a big down-day Friday so a bounce higher today is not a surprise based on the stats. I thought we might see continued selling today, but it’s just another case of trade what you see, not what you think.
 
Today, Monday, was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. That suggests that today’s action doesn’t mean much.
 
We still see negative indicators, but as we know, no indicator system is always right. Could we be wrong this time? Of course, but given that indicators are still falling, I’m ok with my current conservative, defensive position. 
 
I won’t change my invested position unless indicators reverse higher.
 
Indicators suggested a correction greater than 10% when the S&P 500 made its all-time high a week ago. Unless there is a recession, a correction of 20% or more is not likely. 
 
If we do see a correction, and of course there is no guarantee we will, some levels of support follow: The S&P 500 was 3.1% above the 50-dMA and 7.2% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Until proven otherwise, I’m bearish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Payroll Report ... ISM Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
PHOTOS TELL LIES IN GAZA – EXCERPT (WSJ)
“Over the weekend, I embedded with the Israel Defense Forces in Gaza, where I saw the enormous quantities of humanitarian aid the United Nations has been refusing to distribute. What struck me most were the thousands upon thousands of pounds of baby food, baking under the Middle Eastern sun—jar after jar of mashed carrots, pureed potatoes and fruit blends. This food could have gone to children like Mohammed al-Mutawaaq.
Those who don’t know his name will almost certainly recognize his face. Pictures of him, gaunt and fragile, staring vacantly into the camera, were plastered across the homepages of major media outlets last week, from the New York Times and Politico to the BBC. Mohammed, more than anyone else, was made the face of a devastating allegation: that Israel is deliberately starving Palestinian children. That wasn’t the truth about Mohammed, nor is it the truth about what’s happening in Gaza. Mohammed suffers from cerebral palsy...Another notable omission from virtually all media coverage were the photos of Mohammed being held by his mother with his older brother standing nearby. Both mother and brother appear healthy and fed...In addition to rejecting IDF protection, the U.N. has declined to cooperate with the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, despite its backing by the U.S. The result is that food meant for children like Mohammed is left to rot. Put simply, the U.N. would rather work with Hamas than the Israelis or the Americans.” -  Eitan Fischberger, American-Israeli journalist. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/gaza-starvation-photos-tell-a-thousand-lies-palestine-israel-aid-1d689cc8?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjpEu1Kk92MTTbSsvmbw2JUFJjOa79HOgq2GtSYWJV21vKHK_pXeZGi38yYNq4%3D&gaa_ts=688cff12&gaa_sig=JPcYw3gj5VXNYQqKUQedJj0Q0ooZAGJD5uo1uW_sOti4FTDB_gLqe_UJsaVAt4lFWRgFlO5520RwjJjVH94kgw%3D%3D
 
WHO VOTED AGAINST ISRAEL (Newsweek)
“Sanders, a Vermont independent who has been critical of Israel, introduced two resolutions the Senate voted on Wednesday. Although both failed to receive majority support, they received record support from Senate Democrats. One resolution that would block the sale of assault rifles to Israel received support from 27 Democrats, while one to block the sale of more than $675 million in arms sales received support from 24 Democrats.”
 
These Democrats voted for both of Sanders' resolutions.
·        Angela Alsobrooks (Maryland)
·        Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin)
·        Lisa Blunt Rochester (Delaware)
·        Tammy Duckworth (Illinois)
·        Dick Durbin (Illinois)
·        Martin Heinrich (New Mexico)
·        Mazie Hirono (Hawaii)
·        Tim Kaine (Virginia)
·        Andy Kim (New Jersey)
·        Angus King (Maine, an independent who caucuses with Democrats)
·        Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota)
·        Ben Ray Lujan (New Mexico)
·        Ed Markey (Massachusetts)
·        Jeff Merkley (Oregon)
·        Chris Murphy (Connecticut)
·        Patty Murray (Washington)
·        Bernie Sanders (Vermont)
·        Brian Schatz (Hawaii)
·        Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire)
·        Tina Smith (Minnesota)
·        Chris Van Hollen (Maryland)
·        Raphael Warnock (Georgia)
·        Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts)
·        Peter Welch (Vermont)
Story at...
Full list of senators who voted to block Israel arms deal
 
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT (CNBC)
“Job growth totaled a seasonally adjusted 73,000 for the month, above the June total of 14,000 but below even the meager Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 100,000... Friday. June and May totals were revised sharply lower, down by a combined 258,000 from previously announced levels... the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/jobs-report-july-2025.html
My cmt: One pundit called the report a “gamechanger” showing the “labor market is deteriorating quickly.”
 
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month...“In July, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate, with declines in the Supplier Deliveries and Employment Indexes contributing as the biggest factors in the 1-percentage point loss of the Manufacturing PMI®.
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/july/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.6% to 6238.
-VIX rose about 22% to 20.38.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.216% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
I wrote yesterday that I wouldn’t sell if the S&P 500 dropped more than 1% Friday. That’s a recognition that big down-days are often followed by up-days so one may be able to sell Monday at a higher price. I abandoned that strategy when the payroll numbers were much worse than expected. That news could generate more selling on Monday as investors fret over the weekend.
 
Indicators continued their decline and that was a factor also in my decision to sell some stocks today.
 
Indicators suggested a correction greater than 10% when the S&P 500 made its all-time high last Monday. Unless there is a recession, a correction of 20% or more is not likely. 
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to a bearish -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread reversed downward – a bearish sign.
 
A few new bear-signs today:
-The Panic Indicator flashed sell.
-The 5-dEMA of the S&P 500 fell below the 10-dEMA of the S&P 500. This is a momentum indicator.
 
Some levels of support: The S&P 500 was 1.8% above the 50-dMA and 5.7% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Concerning signs got more concerning; I’m bearish in the short-term.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Selling Stock Positions

I cut my stock holdings back from 55% of the portfolio to about 40%. I sold XLK and SPY. Taking profits seemed prudent given today's bad jobs numbers (more on that later) and the continued decline in indicators. The biggest worry among them was the data we saw at the all-time high that suggested a correction of 10% or more was likely. 

PCE Prices ... Jobless Claims ... Chicago PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
PCE PRICE (Yahoo Finance)
“The "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out food and energy costs and is closely watched by the central bank, rose 0.3% from the prior month...On an annual basis, core prices rose 2.8%, above the 2.7% economists had expected...”

Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-shows-price-increases-accelerated-in-june-amid-tariff-uncertainty-124028246.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended July 26, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 224,000 claims for the latest week.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-marginally-2025-07-31/
 
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) rose for the first time in four months to its highest level since March, however remained in contraction territory for the 20th consecutive month. The index jumped 6.7 points to 47.1 in July, the largest monthly increase in over a year. The latest reading was well above the forecast of 41.9.” Commentary and analysis at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/31/chicago-pmi-jumps-to-4-month-high
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 6339.
-VIX rose about 8% to 16.72.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.380% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Indicators blew up today; the daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to a bearish -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread reversed downward – a bearish sign.
 
There were significant bear signs today:
-There was Xtreme high, unchanged-volume.
Ok, this one, by itself, isn’t significant and I know; you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
 
-Thursday there was a Hindenburg Omen.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct either.
 
-Thursday there was another Bearish Outside Reversal Day. We saw the first 2 days ago.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.
 
-Breadth declined. The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE dropped below 50%, i.e., more than half of the issues on the NYSE have declined over the last 2 weeks.
 
These are not good signs, but news was not all bad - charts are Ok for now. I drew new channels on the S&P 500 chart (shown above on the “Summary of 50 Indicator Spread” chart as solid black lines) yesterday.  The new lines recognize that the S&P 500 advance has cooled some and is no longer “parabolic.” The bottom trendline is around 6300 so we don’t want to see the S&P 500 drop too far below that level.  
 
The big worry is that 52-week, new-high data at the most recent all-time high for the S&P 500 suggested that a correction of >10% was coming. It appears to here now.
 
I’ll sell XLK Friday. It has a higher Beta than the S&P 500, my other trading position.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Concerning signs got more concerning; I’ll sell my XLK position Friday, but not if there is a big down-day, say greater than 1% on the S&P 500.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.