Navigate the Stock Market

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

NY Fed Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

BIDEN’S BROADBAND BLOWOUT IS A WASTE (WSJ)
“The Broadband Rollout Fiasco” (Review & Outlook, Oct. 5) is real. Few American households live in areas without access to broadband in the first place. In its 2021 Broadband Deployment Report, the Federal Communications Commission found that 99.4% of the U.S. population in 2019 lived in areas that met the FCC’s broadband definition for either fixed or mobile services. The remaining 0.6%, roughly 770,000 households, who lacked access to broadband were mostly in the rural West or Alaska. The 2021 infrastructure law allocated $42.5 billion to areas “unserved” by broadband. That is more than $55,000 for each unserved household in 2019. Many would have chosen a check for $50,000 rather than a new government service.” - Harold Furchtgott-Roth, former FCC commissioner, Hudson Institute. From WSJ Letters at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/biden-broadband-blowout-is-a-waste-cea24907

US TIGHTENS OIL SANCTIONS ON IRAN (WSJ)
“The Biden administration said Friday that it was tightening sanctions on Iran in response to Tehran’s large-scale ballistic missile attack on Israel earlier this month.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-tightens-oil-sanctions-on-iran-as-it-seeks-to-contain-israeli-attack-dd983191
My cmt: According to the US Dept of State, Iran has been supporting “...Hamas and other U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist groups, including Palestine Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command.” Why haven’t our sanctions already been maxed out? This is another example of unbelievable incompetence by our government. Or was it pure politics? Don't put too many sanctions on, so the oil price remains low and Democrats get re-elected - your choice.

NY FED MANUFACTURING (bnnBloomberg)
“New York state factory activity swung back into contraction territory this month as orders and shipments weakened, consistent with lackluster manufacturing. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s October general business conditions index slid 23.4 points to a five-month low of minus 11.9, figures issued Tuesday showed... the New York Fed’s gauge of prices paid for materials increased to a six-month high of 29, while an index of prices received by state manufacturers also accelerated.” Story at...
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/10/15/new-york-manufacturing-contracts-as-orders-shipments-weaken/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 5815.
-VIX rose about 5% to 20.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.034%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16, but SOLD 2 Oct. (Missed this move. I expect to buy it back soon)
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:

The NY Fed report that hinted at increasing inflation came out at 8:30 am Eastern, so today’s fall starting at 10 am is curious. There was a double-top on the S&P 500 before the fall, so the decline was still probably due to the NY Fed report.

Overall, today’s Bull-Bear spread of +8 is bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) was flat. I need to see it break higher before I will commit more funds to the stock market.

An improvement in the indicators tomorrow will probably give me that buy-signal since the 10-dMA is flat.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish, but still awaiting an upturn in indicators to add leveraged trading positions.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, October 14, 2024

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

THE PURGE IS REAL – INSIDE THE GOP’S 2024 PLAYBOOK TO DISENFRANCHISE VOTERS (Alternet)
“On Monday, a new lawsuit was dropped on Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin from the League of Women Voters in Virginia and immigrant-rights groups who accuse him and his attorney general, Jason Miyares, of running an illegal “Purge Program” ahead of November's elections...These last-minute efforts to kick people off state voter lists aren’t accidental. They’re part of former President Donald Trump’s strategy to recapture the White House. And it’s working, at least in some regions.” Story at...
The Purge is real: Inside the GOP's 2024 playbook to disenfranchise voters (msn.com)
My cmt: What crap! If there is Russian disinformation to divide the country, this is what it would look like. Here’s what Wikipedia says about Alternet: “There is consensus that AlterNet is generally unreliable. Editors consider AlterNet a partisan source, and its statements should be attributed.”

Great Scott! The Democrats are working hard to get Donald Trump elected. See the following:
VIRGINIA GOVERNOR ISSUES STATEMENT:
“Governor Glenn Youngkin, after being notified this afternoon (Friday) that the Biden-Harris Department of Justice was filing a lawsuit against the Commonwealth of Virginia, released the following statement:
"With less than 30 days until the election, the Biden-Harris Department of Justice is filing an unprecedented lawsuit against me and the Commonwealth of Virginia, for appropriately enforcing a 2006 law signed by Democrat Tim Kaine that requires Virginia to remove noncitizens from the voter rolls - a process that starts with someone declaring themselves a non-citizen and then registering to vote. Virginians - and Americans - will see this for exactly what it is: a desperate attempt to attack the legitimacy of the elections in the Commonwealth, the very crucible of American Democracy. With the support of our Attorney General, we will defend these commonsense steps, that we are legally required to take, with every resource available to us. Virginia’s election will be secure and fair, and I will not stand idly by as this politically motivated action tries to interfere in our elections, period." Statement from the Governor’s Office at...
https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/2024/october/name-1035132-en.html
Democrat Terry McCauliff lost the Virginia Gubernatorial election because during the September 2021 debate McCauliff said, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” The Biden-Harris voter lawsuit ranks up there along with McCauliff’s blunder as a possible election game-changer. Harris has been leading in Virginia by as much as 11 points. Virginia has not voted Republican in a Presidential election for 20-years (George W. Bush). Perhaps the incompetent Democrats will change that.

WHEN YOUR CAMPAIGN IS FLAGGING, BUY SOME VOTES (Daily Caller)
“The Harris campaign rolled out its “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men,” which proposes to give one million $20,000 loans to black entrepreneurs and “others who have historically faced barriers to starting a new business or growing an existing business.” The policy is aligned with the Biden administration’s broad effort to prioritize or otherwise incorporate race into several major government programs and initiatives, such as its payments to black American farmers who faced discrimination before 2021 and its Justice40 agenda stipulating that 40% of the benefits of certain environmental spending and programs flow to “disadvantaged communities.”
Kamala Harris Appears To Propose New Race-Based Payments As Support From Black Men Lags (msn.com)
My cmt: I changed the headline for the above article. BTW. The Federal Government already has a program to do this referred to as “8A” (Section 8A under the Small Business Act).
From the Minority Business Development agency: “The 8(a) Business Development Program is a business assistance program for small disadvantaged businesses. The 8(a) Program offers a broad scope of assistance to firms that are owned and controlled at least 51% by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals.” I dealt with it regularly during my 35-year Government career. We paid more for 8A contracts because they were negotiated contracts rather than awarded to the lowest bidder.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 5860.
-VIX declined about 4% to 19.7.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.105%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Overall, a Bull-Bear spread of +6 is slightly bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is still sloping down. I need to see it break higher before I will commit more funds to the stock market.

As previously noted: The S&P 500 appears to be breaking out of the descending triangle and that‘s a good sign.

8.7% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today when the S&P 500 made a new, all-time high. That’s well above average and this indicates a broad advance and suggests that if there were a pullback it would be relatively small.

One new Bear sign popped up today – Bollinger Bands are overbought. As I regularly note, I use Bollinger Bands with RSI. Since RSI is not overbought so I’ll ignore the Bollinger signal.

I still think that I may get a buy-signal this week. I’ll post during the trading-day if I make any portfolio moves next week.

It might seem logical to add more stocks/ETFs now, but I am following my system. I am already over-invested. I only move to an extreme over-invested position when the indicators are giving strong, bullish signals. I’ll wait until they do before I reset leveraged positions.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point, but leaning bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, October 11, 2024

PPI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

PPI (CNBC)
“A measure of wholesale prices showed no change in September, pointing to a continued easing in inflation, the Labor Department reported Friday. The producer price index, which measures what producers get for their goods and services, was flat for the month and up 1.8% from a year ago.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/11/producer-price-index-september-2024-.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5815.
-VIX declined about 2% to 20.46.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.096%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Overall, a Bull-Bear spread of +4 is Neutral to slightly bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is still sloping down. I need to see it break higher before I will commit more funds to the stock market.

The S&P 500 appears to be breaking out of the descending triangle and that‘s a good sign.

Breadth is improving, too. I suspect that I may get a buy signal early next week. I’ll post during the trading-day if I make any portfolio moves next week.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point, but leaning bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, October 10, 2024

CPI ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

"Yes they can control the weather. It’s ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can’t be done." – Marjorie Taylor Greene, Congresswoman, Georgia (R).

Michael Ramirez. Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html

“These billion-dollar disasters used to happen once every three months back in the 1980s. Over the last decade they’ve happened closer to every three weeks,” says Adam Smith, an applied climatologist at NOAA. “Climate change is certainly supercharging many of these trends.” Story at...
Hurricane Milton: How climate change is ‘supercharging’ extreme weather trends | Watch (msn.com)
My cmt: 80’s? That was 40-years ago. Maybe it has something to do with more people living in the danger zone and the increased value of real estate. The following story is closer to the truth.

CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE DOESN’T SUPPORT THE HEATED RHETORIC (Tribune News Service)
“We are constantly reminded that we are experiencing a climate crisis, but as a climate scientist, I can tell you that’s not what the science has shown us so far. Other than modest warming, there has been little change in any kind of severe weather that can be attributed to global greenhouse gas emissions. You don’t have to take my word for it, despite my credentials. It’s the conclusion of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Its most recent report concludes that, other than direct temperature-related effects, there have been virtually no changes in severe weather that we can confidently attribute to greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.” - Roy W. Spencer, PhD, a visiting fellow at The Heritage Foundation, Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). He is the author of “Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models.” Story at...
Commentary: Climate change: The science doesn’t support the heated rhetoric (msn.com)

“The stock market indices look like they all want to move higher into year-end, regardless of what happens this month. Since September 2022 my strategy has been to buy weakness. That remains in place today. I sometimes try to be too cute. Don’t miss out on what could be another solid quarter.” -Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital. Blog at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/does-the-government-manipulate-economic-data/

CPI & JOBLESS CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Both the headline and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast for the month, with a 0.2% increase in the headline index and a 0.3% rise for the core... On an annual basis, the headline index rose 2.4% in September, slightly less than 2.5% the month before, while the core figure accelerated for the first time in one and a half years, to 3.3% from 3.2%....
...Weekly jobless claims also came out Thursday, and showed a much-bigger-than-expected increase of 258,000, against the median forecast for 230,000. While this was likely affected by the impact of hurricanes, one market participant said the jump – to the highest level in more than a year – was hard to ignore.” Story at...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-10-10/us-cpi-report-for-september

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5780.
-VIX rose about 0.3% to 20.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.067%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +2 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Overall, a Bull-Bear spread of +2 is Neutral so the markets remain unsettled. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is still sloping down so we can’t feel too confident about markets. It’s not that I expect a big downturn, but the indicators are suggesting that the directionless trend may continue.

The bearish, rising-wedge pattern, shown by the red, dashed-lines on the above chart, remains in play.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point, but leaning bullish, still waiting to see what the indicators tell us.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

"We need to guard that spirit. We have to guard that spirit. Let it always inspire us. Let it always be the source of our optimism, which is that spirit that is uniquely American. Let that then inspire us by helping us to be inspired to solve the problems that so many face, including our small business owners.” – Kamala Harris, VP at the Economic Club of Pittsburg. (This was a prepared speech - disappointingly inarticulate.)

“Lyin’ Kamala, who is being exposed as a “dummy” every time she does a show, just stated to the degenerates on The View that she would have done nothing different than Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST PRESIDENT IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES. The Lamestream Media doesn’t want to pick up the story, the dumb women on the show wish they never asked her the question that led to that Election Defying answer, but the Internet is going WILD. For starters, THE BORDER DISASTER, WITH MURDERERS AND EVERYONE ELSE BEING ALLOWED TO INVADE OUR COUNTRY, WORST INFLATION IN HISTORY, THE UKRAINE DISASTER, OCTOBER 7TH WITH ISRAEL, LOSS OF ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, THE AFGHANISTAN DEBACLE, LOSS OF RESPECT ALL OVER THE GLOBE, AND MUCH MORE! Her dumbest answer so far!” – Donald Trump posted on “X”.

“One of the painful signs of years of dumbed-down education is how many people are unable to make a coherent argument. They can vent their emotions, question other people’s motives, make bold assertions, repeat slogans—anything except reason.” ― Thomas Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.

"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin

“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” - Albert Einstein

"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." – Vernon Wormer, Dean, Faber College.

HARRIS TRUMP FISCAL IMPACTS (US Budget Watch)
“The next President will face significant fiscal challenges upon taking office, including record debt levels, large structural deficits, surging interest payments, and the looming insolvency of critical trust fund programs.1 Our large and growing national debt threatens to slow economic growth, boost interest rates and payments, weaken national security, constrain policy choices, and increase the risk of an eventual fiscal crisis.
However, neither major candidate running in the 2024 presidential election has put forward a plan to address this rising debt burden. In fact, our comprehensive analysis of the candidates’ tax and spending plans finds that both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump would likely further increase deficits and debt above levels projected under current law.” Commentary at...
https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans

EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 422.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 5792, a new all-time high.
-VIX declined about 3% to 20.86.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.073%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
The daily 50-Indicator Spread improved, but the 10-dMA (purple line in the chart above) is still sloping down. That’s a bearish sign, but it was very close to reversing higher. If it does reverse higher, I may be buying back into my leveraged positions Thursday.

Overall, a Bull-Bear spread of +6 is mildly positive for the markets; it would be nice to see it higher.

The S&P 500 made a new all-time high today. 5.8% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today. That is below the 5-year average for this stat, but it is still high enough that I don’t consider it a bearish sign.

The bearish, rising-wedge pattern is still in play. I’ve indicated the rising-wedge pattern by a red, dashed line in the above chart. If the Index breaks above the top of the triangle and stays there for consecutive days, it would end the bear pattern. If we see Indicators improve too, it would be a good sign for the markets and be a buy-signal for me.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point, but leaning bullish, still waiting to see what the indicators tell us.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Business Optimism ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

"The aid that we have given Israel allowed Israel to defend itself against 200 ballistic missiles that were just meant to attack the Israelis and the people of Israel. And when we think about the threat that Hamas, Hezbollah presents, Iran, I think that it is without any question, our imperative to do what we can to allow Israel to defend itself against those kinds of attacks. Now the work we do diplomatically with the leadership of Israel is an ongoing pursuit around making clear our principles, which include the need for humanitarian aid, the need for this war to end, the need for a deal to be done which would release the hostages and create a cease-fire. And we’re not going to stop in terms of putting that pressure on Israel and in the region, including Arab leaders." – VP Kamala Harris, on 60-Minutes, responding to whether the US has “sway” over Netanyahu.

BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 0.3 points in September to 91.5. This is the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 11 points to 103, the highest reading recorded... “Small business owners are feeling more uncertain than ever,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Uncertainty makes owners hesitant to invest in capital spending and inventory, especially as inflation and financing costs continue to put pressure on their bottom lines. Although some hope lies ahead in the holiday sales season, many Main Street owners are left questioning whether future business conditions will improve.” Press release at...
https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 5751.
-VIX declined about 5% to 21.42. (Typo here yesterday.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.014%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 9 Bear-sign and 13-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) improved to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping down, a bearish sign.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
There was another statistically-significant, up-day today for the S&P 500. That’s three big days in a row: up-down-up. That sometimes occurs at tops.

A statistically significant up-day means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. Tops almost always occur on Statistically-significant, up-days, but not all statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. Today could be a short-term top, but there were no top indicators that were bearish, so a significant top seems unlikely.

I didn’t mention it yesterday, but Monday, unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The trend has been higher for awhile and the Index is near its upper trend line (from 5 August). Does that mean a reversal lower is in the works? I don’t know. Perhaps the best we can say is that investors are confused. It seems to me that a move higher or lower is equally likely. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.

Indicators have been declining on a 10-day basis and remain in a Neutral indication.

The S&P 500 is 1.2% below its all-time high from last week. If this weakness does develop into a more significant correction, I would expect that the decline would not exceed 10%, based on numbers we saw at the all-time high last week. I suspect it is more likely that the decline would take the Index to its lower trend line (roughly S&P 5675) or perhaps down another 3.4% to its 50-dMA (5558).

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point waiting to see what the indicators tell us.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, October 7, 2024

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

ASHEVILLE – SAFE FROM NATURAL DISASTERS? (msn.com)
“In online forums discussing where to escape heat, floods and fire, Asheville consistently comes up. One poster wrote in 2019, they didn’t want “to be in a place that has constant threat of natural disasters that will destroy our property so we are planning on moving to (the) Asheville area.” Even the climate experts who call Asheville home believed they were insulated from the worst risks. Susan Hassol, a veteran climate change communicator and science writer, said she and others “have labored under the illusion that we live in a relatively climate-safe place.” Story at...
People moved to Asheville to escape extreme weather. They forgot its tragic history. (msn.com)
My cmt: They lived in the mountains near a river and didn’t know there was a flood risk. North Carolina publishes FEMA flood maps for each county that are searchable by address. We have the same service in my hometown. Everyone should know if they live in a flood zone. A Google search should be able to find the local flood maps. If not, call your local government and know your flood zone.

ANOTHER MAJOR HURRICANE PREDICTED TO STRIKE FLORIDA
Hurricane Milton has reached Category 5 strength and the CNBC pundits were talking about the risks to insurance companies. Only 4 storms have made a US landfall at Category 5 strength. One of those was Hurricane Andrew in 1992. I was at the 1993 Hurricane Conference almost a year later. There was a presentation by the insurance industry where they said that the most expensive natural disaster of 1992 was not Andrew – it was a deep freeze in the South that caused massive damage due to frozen pipes and other issues. Curious, but this is a big storm. Milton is now forecast to weaken to Cat 3 at landfall, still a major, dangerous storm. Let’s hope that the forecast is correct and Hurricane Milton continues to weaken. Either way, the storm is likely to cause huge damage. The Tampa area is a lot more populated now than Dade County was in 1992 where Andrew made landfall.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 fell about 1% to 5696.
-VIX rose about 18% to 19.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.028%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 10 Bear-sign and 12-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) declined to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping down, a bearish sign.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Indicators declined on Monday and are now in a Neutral indication. The 10-dMA of indicators continues to decline and that’s a continuing worry.

Monday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time.

The S&P 500 is 1.2% below its all-time high from last week. If this weakness does develop into a more significant correction, I would expect that the decline would not exceed 10%, based on numbers we saw at the all-time high last week. I suspect it is more likely that the decline would take the Index to its lower trend line (roughly S&P 5675) or perhaps down another 2.5% to its 50-dMA (5558).

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point waiting to see what the indicators tell us.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)