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Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Crude Inventory ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

Tomorrow will be very busy. I’m not sure when, or if, there will be a Blog post on Thursday.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

CRUDE INVENTORY (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 430.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was unchanged at 5917.
-VIX rose about 5% to 17.16.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.414%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -9 is a BEARISH indication.

The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is falling today so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bearish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)

Looks like the more likely move for the markets now is down. The 50-dMA is 2.1% below today’s close. That’s also at the lower trendline. That is my guess where the weakness in the markets will end. I don’t know of course. Indicators don’t predict the future they just indicate the trend. And the trend may be due to voter’s remorse as every new day brings us another rediculous appointment by Trump. Negative indicators persist.

There was another Hindenburg Omen today...
Hindenburg Omen: (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindenburgomen.asp). As we’ve noted before, the Omen sends a lot of false warnings, but there have been 3 Omens in the last 4 days. Clusters of Omens are supposed to be more reliable than a single warning.

Further, the short-term Fosback New-high/new-low Logic indicator that uses a similar analytic approach, is close to giving a sell warning too. This doesn’t mean there is a crash coming, but more weakness is suggested.

On a good note, the S&P 500 finished strongly at the end of the day - it climbed nearly a half percent in the last hour of trading. That could be the reversal that traders have been waiting for.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral on the markets. I’ll hold stock positions and if declines continue, I’ll wait to see if the 50-dMA holds.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials. It will take me a while to make changes to my programming.

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Housing Starts ... Building Permits ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

WW III HAS ALREADY BEGUN (Moneywise via msn.com)
“The head of America’s largest bank told an audience at the Institute of International Finance that his team is running scenarios in preparation for a global conflict involving nuclear powers. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, told the crowd that war was imminent and nuclear proliferation was a greater existential threat than climate change.”
‘World War III has already begun,’ Jamie Dimon warns — says he and his team are preparing for serious conflict with Russia, China. 3 assets to protect yourself in 2025

HOUSING STARTS / BUILDING PERMITS (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in October likely as Hurricanes Helene and Milton depressed activity in the South while permits rose slightly, indicating that an anticipated rebound probably would be muted by higher mortgage rates... Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, plunged 6.9%... Permits for future construction of single-family housing gained 0.5%...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-housing-starts-134759234.html

GIVING BACK THE POST ELECTION BOOM (Heritage Capital)
“After the initial “risk on” market surge the day after the election, not much has happened. In fact, some indices are lower... Markets saw a surge with some follow through. Now, all but the initial surge has been given back. And don’t be surprised if the initial surge goes away before Thanksgiving. That would not necessarily be a bad thing. In fact, I think it would set the stage for a solid year-end rally lasting into January... The recent pullback isn’t a major, belling ringing buy. But it is a tidy little pullback in an ongoing and strong bull market. At a minimum I expect a bounce on Monday or Tuesday. And I remain in the “buy weakness” mode until proven otherwise.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/markets-giving-back-post-election-boom/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5917.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.396%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -5 is a BEARISH to NEUTRAL indication.

The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) reversed lower today so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bearish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)

Some of the bearsih indicators were: Smoothed up-volume is falling; 10-day Breadth turned negative; there was another Hindenburg Omen; Utilities are outperforming the S&P 500; new-high/new-low data is bearish; the S&P 500 has gotten to far ahead of other issues on the NYSE.

Market Internals were relatively flat Tuesday while the S&P 500 managed to climb higher.

We still may have seen an end to the selling, but it is not encouraging to see indicators fall as they did today. On a good note, the S&P 500 is only 2.2% above its 50-dMA, so a retreat from today’s close would not have far to go before it meets strong resistance.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish on the markets.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, November 18, 2024

Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.” - Thomas Sowell

WHY TRUMP WANTS HEGSETH AT DEFENSE (WSJ)
“The choice of Mr. Hegseth has shocked many in Washington, and that by itself might be a recommendation. He could hardly do worse than the so-called adults in the room of recent years. The armed services can’t make their recruiting quotas, America’s military industrial base has been exposed as inadequate with little protest from Pentagon leaders, and no one in the civilian or military ranks was held accountable for the Afghanistan debacle.
The 44-year-old Mr. Hegseth has combat experience in Afghanistan and Iraq and has maintained his military ties as an officer in the National Guard. He has been an advocate for veterans, both on TV and as a member of veterans groups. He’s smart and telegenic. Yet he’s never run a big institution, much less one of the largest and most hidebound on the planet... Mr. Trump’s first term was a security success because he followed a policy of peace through strength. But the world is more dangerous now, and the mix of his nominees suggests his second term is likely to be a wilder ride.” WSJ Editorial Board. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/pete-hegseth-secretary-of-defense-donald-trump-pentagon-military-fox-news-6ea89c1a?mod=opinion_trendingnow_article_pos1

TRUMP KEEPS TROLLING (WSJ)
“Pete Hegseth as defense secretary? This is unserious and deeply alarming. He is a decorated military veteran with Ivy League degrees, but he has no serious governmental or managerial experience, no history of international accomplishment... As for Matt Gaetz being nominated as attorney general—well, this is just straight-out trolling, right? The four-term Florida congressman has won a reputation as disruptive, divisive, aggressive, lacking in groundedness and wisdom, and dogged by ethics allegations. He seems to see politics as an offshoot of showbiz and has entertained his followers with successive attempts to take down GOP leaders in the House, on behalf of—well, it’s never quite clear. This we need in America’s top law-enforcement official?... Mr. Trump often confuses his own antic malice for daring, his own unseriousness for boldness. How amazing that in the rosy glow of election, he will spend so much political capital and goodwill on confirmation fights he may well, and certainly deserves to, lose.” – Peggy Noonan. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-keeps-trolling-as-the-resistance-fades-appointments-confirmations-cope-a6a8bd40?mod=trending_now_opn_5

FINAL TALLY ON ELECTION NUMBERS
Trump’s 2024 votes: 76,431,000, 3% more than when he lost to Biden.
Trump’s 2020 votes: 74,224,000

Harris’ 2024 Votes: 73,738,000
Biden’s 2020 Votes: 81,284,000

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5894.
-VIX declined about 3% to 15.58.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.414%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators). (Friday’s spread should have been +1; the Hindenburg Omen remains until the McClellan Oscillator turns positive.)

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -1 remains a NEUTRAL indication.

The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bullish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)

I noted Friday that it is likely that we may have seen an end to selling Friday. Today was a good first start, but we’ll need to see some follow through. On a good note, there are still enough bull signs to suggest that a significant correction is unlikely.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials. It will take me a while to make changes to my programming.

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, November 15, 2024

Retail Sales ... NY Fed Manufacturing ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

Let me count the ways. – Michael Ramirez.
From...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html#/
My cmt: How is it possible to lose to Trump? Trump got the same number of votes in 2024 as he got in 2020 when he lost to Biden. The difference was that Biden got 10-million more votes that Harris. In other words, 10-million Democrats and Independents stayed home rather than vote for Harris. Why? See above.

RETAIL SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“October retail sales grew from the prior month, reflecting continued resilience in the American consumer. Retail sales rose 0.4% in October.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/october-retail-sales-top-estimates-september-spending-revised-sharply-higher-133733716.html

NY FED MANUFACTURING (CNY Central News)
“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a survey detailing manufacturing trends in New York state. The report found manufacturing activity grew in New York state in November, with sharp increases in new orders and shipments. The survey went on to say price increases remained steady, and firms remained optimistic about future conditions.” Story at...
https://www.cnycentral.com/news/local/empire-state-manufacturing-survey-shows-steady-growth-in-new-york-businesses

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Yahoo Finance / Bloomberg)
“US industrial production declined in October as the impacts from a Boeing Co. machinists’ strike and a pair of hurricanes reverberated through manufacturing for a second month.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-industrial-production-falls-strike-144818873.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.3% to 5871.
-VIX rose about 12.8% to 16.14.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.445%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +3 is back to a NEUTRAL indication.

The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bullish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)

Friday, there was Higher than normal unchanged-volume, but not as high as those supposed reversal signals. Still this could be reversal sign – maybe back up? Wishful thinking. This indicator is not reliable. And speaking of unreliable... There was a Hindenburg Omen today...

Hindenburg Omen: (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindenburgomen.asp). As we’ve noted before, the Omen sends a lot of false warnings. Further, the Fosback New-high/new-low Logic indicator uses a similar analytic approach, but it is closer to buy than sell, so I won’t get too worried about the Hindenburg signal.

Friday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost always occur on Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms, i.e., today could have been an end to the weakness we have seen recently in the markets, but it is far from certain.

Still, it is likely that we may have seen an end to selling today. We’ll see...

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, November 14, 2024

PPI ... Jobless Claims ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.” - Thomas Sowell

TRUMP PICKS GAETZ AS ATTORNEY GENERAL (NBC News)
“President-elect Donald Trump stunned Senate Republicans by announcing Wednesday that he will nominate Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., to be attorney general. Gaetz, a Trump loyalist known for being a rabble-rouser in Congress, will need a majority of the Senate to be confirmed as the country’s top law enforcement officer. Republicans will have a majority of 52 or 53 seats beginning Jan. 3, depending on the outcome of the Pennsylvania Senate race.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-baffles-republican-senators-picking-matt-gaetz-attorney-general-rcna180048
My cmt: It seems unlikely that he will be confirmed by the Senate. No wonder Trump is demanding recess appointments for his cabinet.

TRUMP CHOOSES RFK Jr. FOR HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CNBC)
“Shares of vaccine makers fell Thursday as President-elect Donald Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services... Health policy experts have said a second Trump term could allow Kennedy to elevate anti-vaccine rhetoric, which could deter more Americans from receiving Covid shots and routine immunizations that have for decades saved millions of lives and prevented debilitating illnesses.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/14/vaccine-maker-stocks-fall-as-trump-chooses-rfk-jr-to-lead-hhs.html
My cmt: Some of his misleading statements in interviews:
-        "There's no vaccine that is, you know, safe and effective."
-        "I do believe that autism comes from vaccines."
-        "Vaccines are exempt from placebo-controlled trials."

PPI (UPI)
“Wholesale Producer Price Index inflation rose 0.2% in October and is up 2.4% annually, according to a Thursday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The PPI numbers matched the Dow Jones consensus forecast.” Story at...
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2024/11/14/PPI-inflation-October-BLS/8251731602265/

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in six months last week as layoffs remain at relatively healthy levels. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claim applications fell by 4,000 to 217,000 for the week of Nov. 9.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/number-american-filing-jobless-claims-133857725.html

CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 429.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 5949.
-VIX rose about 0.5% to 14.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.447%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +7 is a bullish indication.

The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bullish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)

Actually, Wednesday, not Tuesay, there was High, unchanged-volume. A possible reversal sign, but often wrong.

The daily 50-indicator spread improved, but I watch the 10-dMA more carefully since it is a smoothed version of the data. So far, the 10-day data looks good. The S&P 500 has fallen three days in a row. Will the Index return to its 50-dMA? I doubt it since it was just there 8-days ago, but it’s always possible.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, November 13, 2024

CPI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +3 is a neutral indication.

The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bullish.. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)

Tuesday there was High, unchanged-volume. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The trend has been higher for a while. Does that mean a reversal lower is in the works? Possibly, but perhaps the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong. The last time we saw this signal the S&P 500 declined about 1% before turning higher.

“The Smart Money Index was popularized by Don Hayes in the 1990s. It is a technical indicator that attempts to gauge what the “smart money” is doing relative to the “dumb money” in the U.S. stock market... The idea here is that the majority of traders (news-driven, emotional) make their trades at the opening bell because of the overnight economic data and news. On the other hand, the more experienced traders jump into the market [near] the close having the chance to evaluate market performance. The difference reflects the net trading of these “smarter” traders.” From...
https://www.warriortrading.com/smart-money-index/

I use an alternative version since I only look at what investors are doing in “late-day-action.” In other words, I am tracking the “smart money” not the dumb money. Currently, my version of the Smart Money Indicator is falling showing that recently, late-day trading has been bearish.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets, but with indicators giving a neutral indication I wouldn’t add new money at this point. I’m not planning any change to the portfolio, but that could change if indicators continue to fall.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Small Business Optimism ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +8 is remains bullish – it’s not unusual to see indicators decline on a down-day, so no big deal.

The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is bullish since it is moving higher. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.) That is the important signal for today.

Markets don’t go up every day.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)