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Thursday, January 16, 2025

Philly Fed ... Jobless Claims ... Retail Sales... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

Political commentary by Michael Ramirez at...
https://michaelramirez.substack.com/p/michael-ramirez-trumps-return-1-16

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

PHILLY FED (Advisor Perspectives)
“The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0... Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services surged 0.7% last month after an unrevised 0.4% gain in November. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product” Commentary at...
https://www.advisorp\erspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/01/16/philly-fed-manufacturing-index-activity-jumps-to-highest-level-since-april-2024

RETAIL SALES (Reuters)
“Retail sales rose 0.4% last month after an upwardly revised 0.8% gain in November...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-retail-sales-rise-solidly-december-2025-01-16/

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week ended Jan. 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 210,000 claims for the latest week.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-labor-market-conditions-still-healthy-2025-01-16/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5937.
-VIX rose about 3% to 16.60.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.619%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.

SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT
The S&P 500 was down some today – not much of a surprise given the big rebound over the last 2 days.

The daily, bull-bear spread of +8 is Bullish. The 10-dMA of the spread is also moving higher, another bull-sign.

This is the first time since November that the Bull/Bear Spread has gone from Bearish to Bullish so there is good confirmation that the bottom is in for a while. Breadth has improved and almost all of the breadth indicators are now bullish. Late-day action is bullish so the Pros must agree that the bottom is in.

The S&P 500 remains below its 50-dMA. I don’t think this means much, but according to the old Wall Street adage, support becomes resistance so some investors will be watching to see if the Index can close above the 50-day. I see no reason why it won’t.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

CPI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"I am so mad that the Republicans captured this issue – shame on all the elected Democrats who keep silent on this!... Shame on the Democrats who really don’t care about women, girls, and their safety, fairness... More Dems need to step up here. I know many who agree but are scared to speak up because of re-election. I say do the right thing. Grow a spine." - Martina Navratilova, tennis star, commenting on a House Bill that prevents trans men from competing in women’s sports. Only 2 Democrats voted for the Bill.

IS A SMALL NEW YEAR’S DAY FIRE CONNECTED TO THE WILDFIRE DISASTER? (WSJ)
“Six days before the start of one of the most destructive fires in Los Angeles history, a smaller New Year’s Day blaze, in the very first hour of 2025, ignited in the same area. Now, officials are trying to determine whether the two might be connected.
On Monday afternoon, units from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, which is investigating the cause of the fire, and the Los Angeles Police Department arrived at a cul-de-sac near the Skull Rock trailhead in the Palisades. They quickly closed off the area with yellow caution tape.
“We’re looking at every possibility, going down every rabbit hole, and examining video footage from residents in the area,” said Ginger Colbrun, spokeswoman for ATF in Los Angeles. Colbrun said the investigation would include looking at possible connections between the Palisades fire and the one on New Year’s Day.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/same-spot-is-a-small-new-years-morning-blaze-connected-to-the-los-angeles-fire-disaster-e5056038
My cmt: Why so many fires? It sure seems like there may be arsonists involved in these fires. The article theorized that the New Year’s Day fire may have been started by fireworks.

CALIFORNIA NEEDS TO RESTORE FIRE TOWERS (LA Times)
“At one point, there were more than 9,000 lookout towers in the United States, placed atop hills and mountains where individuals — also referred to as lookouts — worked alone each summer to watch for and report fires... California once had about 600 such towers, under federal, state and local control, scattered around forest and wildland ridges and high points, placed specifically for the broad field of view each site afforded.... In the 1970s and 1980s, there was a growing belief that air pollution had decreased visibility at some sites, and the creep of suburbia and population into the hills and valleys made these watchers seem less necessary... To help address California’s 2003 budget shortfall, the agency that became Cal Fire offered up the remaining state lookout staffing for a whopping saving of $750,000. By then most towers in the southern national forests and those operated locally by counties or Cal Fire were gone, repurposed or used as museum pieces...

...Given our increasingly devastating fire seasons in California, the state should consider reintroducing a wider system of lookout towers, staffed by both paid personnel and volunteers. While budgets may be stretched, staffing an existing tower is not prohibitively expensive... Many states have ended their lookout programs, but Pennsylvania decided to refurbish its lookout towers and invest in new ones. The state recently built 16 new towers for $6 million, each to be staffed during periods of high danger.” - Michael Guerin, 38-year careerist in public safety and emergency management. Opinion at...
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2019-11-06/california-lookouts-fire-watchers
My cmt: Early detection and rapid response (aerial and otherwise) seems to be simple to achieve. But the California politicians just blame climate change as if there is nothing that can be done to mitigate the danger. We should note that it is somewhat questionable whether Climate Change is resulting in more fires. Other areas of the world seem to be adapting...

“Sophisticated satellite sensors first began monitoring wildfires globally in 1998. Unexpectedly, analysis of the images showed that the area burned annually declined by about 25 percent from 1998 to 2015.” ― Steven E. Koonin, PhD, “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters”

CPI (CNBC)
“The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.9%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday... excluding food and energy, the core CPI annual rate was 3.2%, a notch down from the month before and slightly better than the 3.3% forecast.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/15/cpi-inflation-december-2024-.html

CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 412.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

GLOBAL OIL PRICES (EIA)
“We expect downward oil price pressures over much of the next two years, as we expect that global oil production will grow more than global oil demand. We forecast that the Brent crude oil price will average $74 per barrel (b) in 2025, 8% less than in 2024, and then continue fall another 11% to $66/b in 2026.” Forecasts at...
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.8% to 5950.
-VIX declined about 14% to 16.12.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.655%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.

SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of +4 is Neutral to slightly bullish; however, as we’ve noted earlier, the indicator-spread jumped higher yesterday so the indicators are giving a bullish indication overall. The 10-dMA of the spread is also moving higher, another bull-sign.

The S&P 500 broke above its 50-dMA at the highs, but just barely. It faded late-day and then closed below it. I don’t think this means much, but according to the old Wall Street adage, support becomes resistance so some investors will be watching to see if the Index can close above the 50-day. I see no reason why it won’t.

BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish once again.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

PPI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT
The S&P 500 finished higher, but not by a lot. Market Internals, however, were much improved. Advancing-issues were nearly 3x higher than decliners; advancing-volume was more than 2x higher than declining-volume and even new-high/new-low data was much improved with new-highs about equal to new-lows. Overall breadth improved as more issues were advancing. The McClellan Oscillator turned bullish. My MACD of breadth had already turned bullish.

The daily, bull-bear spread of -5 is Bearish to Neutral, however, the indicator-spread jumped higher today from -16 yesterday. This type of improvement is usually associated with a bottom. In this case, let’s just say it’s more evidence that the market weakness is ending.

The Index again tested its 100-dMA today and closed above it – good news.

CPI is due out tomorrow. That will be another test for the markets, but I suspect the PPI is more important because it suggests lower inflation in the future.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, January 13, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"The United States is taking sweeping action against Russia's key source of revenue for funding its brutal and illegal war against Ukraine...With today's actions, we are ratcheting up the sanctions risk associated with Russia's oil trade, including shipping and financial facilitation in support of Russia's oil exports." - Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary, last week.
WTF? Why didn’t they do this 3 years ago? Now we’re getting tough with Russia? Apparently, Biden thinks this makes him look good – it actually makes him look like a complete idiot.

ANOTHER BIDEN PARTING BLOW (NY Post)
“In a final (we hope) slam of regular Americans, Team Biden’s green crusaders just targeted yet another common household appliance: gas-fired tankless water heaters. Scheduled to kick in 2029, the new rule bans 40% of new water-heater models, forcing consumers to pay another $450 for electric alternatives that won’t work if the power goes out. This follows last year’s rule to effectively prohibit new non-condensing gas furnaces by 2028 — and raise consumer costs by over $900.
It’s all in service to the green delusion that forcing Americans to rely on electric everything will somehow reduce carbon emissions — even though the US electric supply will remain every bit as dependent on burning fossil fuels for the foreseeable future.
The growth in wind, solar and other “alternatives” isn’t even enough to make up for growing electric demand.” Story at...
Another parting Biden blow to American families: A war on water heaters

LESSONS LEARNED FROM A FIERY DECADE IN L.A. (WSJ-Excerpt)
“Shortly after my wife and I bought our all-wood Victorian home in Malibu in 2000, our next-door neighbor... said something I’ve never forgotten. “You know you’re going to have to fight a wildfire one day to save this house.”... He explained that firefighters would likely be overwhelmed by the size and ferocity of these fast-moving, wind-driven wildfire events. He and his father had saved their nearby family home themselves in a previous fire... he listed the items I’d need to save my home, including a fire retardant just like what the fire departments drop from planes and helicopters. Apparently, we were to spray our own house in advance of the fire. I never imagined I’d use any of it... Then in 2018, the Woolsey Fire burst alive in the mountains above my home. The blaze turned out to be one of the most destructive in California history, burning 100,000 acres, forcing 250,000 people to evacuate and destroying nearly 2,000 homes and structures. On my street, 17 of 19 homes burned to the ground. Because of Tim and our spraying, our Victorian was one of the few homes to survive... Spraying, or gelling, in advance of a fire is just one way to give your home a fighting chance to survive. (If no fire comes, the product can be power-washed off.) Removing dry brush and dead leaves and the most flammable vegetation is another critically important step. Experts I’ve interviewed say the most significant thing homeowners can do to mitigate fire risk is to reduce the amount of available fuel.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/climate-environment/lessons-learned-from-a-fiery-decade-in-l-a-f188cb7d
My cmt: This was an interesting story reminding us that California fires are nothing new. Here’s a description of “Barricade,” a fire retardant: “When mixed with water at the end of a garden hose, superabsorbent polymers in the gel-concentrate trap water molecules and suspend them in millions of tiny “bubblets.” Sprayed onto the flammable surfaces of roofs, windows, eaves and walls of a house, vehicles, or propane tanks, a “wet blanket” wrap of Barricade Fire Gel Retardant can be applied up to 24 hours before an approaching wildfire.”

BOND SELLOFF (WSJ via msn)
“Wall Street is really worried about bonds. It might be time to buy some.
On Friday, a jobs report that blew past expectations pushed yields on 10-year Treasurys to 4.772%, the highest close since Nov. 1, 2023, and those on 30-year paper to 4.962%.mWhat is spooking markets, however, is that much of the recent rise in yields doesn’t appear to reflect expectations of stronger economic growth. Rather, it might be the result of investors applying a higher discount or “term premium” to hold long-term bonds...
...inflation-linked Treasurys have sold off too, belying the idea that markets see a hot economy and tariffs as a serious inflationary problem. It might all have to do with interest rates after all... The reason alarm bells are ringing is that longer-term bonds have sold off even more—a “bear steepening” trade, in Wall Street lingo. Three out of four times, yield curves steepen for the opposite reason, historical data shows: A fall in short-term yields driven by central banks cutting rates very fast. Bear steepenings following a period of inverted yield curves are rare, and mostly are reminiscent of the “stagflation” periods of the 1970s and 1980s.” Story at...
A Bond Selloff Is Rocking the World. You Might Want to Take the Other Side.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 5836.
-VIX declined about 2% to 19.22.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.782%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.

SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT

Today’s action in the S&P 500 was bullish – let’s hope it carries through.

The market has been weak since its high in December. One would think the markets have collapsed since then, but the S&P 500 has only fallen 4.2%. Market internals improved today, but indicators (in a surprise) did not. The Index has fallen about a half percent below the 19 December low of 5867 – I thought that was the low based on analysis and indicators. I still suspect markets are close to their lows.

The Index closed on its 100-dMA yesterday and remained above it today – good news.

The S&P 500 is now 4.2% above its 200-dMA (5575) and that is probably a reasonable worst-case scenario. There are many more disastrous outcomes for the markets, but at this point, they don’t seem reasonable unless there is some unforeseen political news, like war. The S&P 500 hasn’t visited its 200-dMA since October 2023.

Looking over S&P 500 price moves, I see that it has been 23-days since the top with rallies of only 3-days or less. This recalls the old Wall Street adage I learned from Jeffrey Saut. He has previously written about other corrections noting “... we could be in one of these “selling stampedes” that tend to last 17 – 25 sessions, with only 1.5- to three-day pauses/throwback rallies, before they exhaust themselves on the downside...[it is] too soon to tell yet if this is such a stampede, but “Never on a Friday.” The reference was that once the markets get into one of these weekly downside skeins, they rarely bottom on a Friday. Nope, they typically give participants over the weekend to brood about their losses and then they show up the next Monday in “sell mode” leading to Turning Tuesday.”

By this measure the weakness should be ending, but on the other hand, this hasn’t been a “stampede," but rather, an orderly walk.

The daily, bull-bear spread of -14 is Bearish, however, indicator-spread has improved compared to the prior low in S&P 500 price. This “divergence” again suggests that weakness is ending. Futures are up as I write this so let’s hope they stay that way.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, expecting this weakness to end very soon. If not, I’ll have to consider taking a much more conservative market position.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, January 10, 2025

Payroll Report / Unemployment Rate ... Michigan Sentiment ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT
Good news is bad news? The markets didn’t like the payroll report today – too many jobs were added. I agree with Josh Brown. On CNBC’s mid-day show he said, “When the market sells off because the economy is too good, it’s a buying opportunity.” Josh Brown is co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management and seems to have a pretty good take on the markets. Let’s look at the technicals; there were a few bright spots buried in today’s weak, down-day.

Friday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost always occur on or near Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms. Bollinger Bands were very close to an oversold signal, but that was the only bottom signal in my system.

The 7-Day VIX ROC gave a buy signal two days ago. Tom ~~McMillan~~ McClellan has written previously, "...any reading above around +20% is a pretty good sign of an oversold bottom for stock prices, one that is worthy of a bounce...” Tuesday’s value for the 7-day rate of change for VIX was 21.

My Money Trend indicator is still moving higher – a buy signal.

The10-dMA of the 50-day indicator spread is still rising so that’s a bullish sign too.

A week ago, at the test of the 19 December low, there was a big swing in the indicators that confirmed internal improvement we had noticed last Thursday. Those signs gave me confidence to suggest that we had seen an end to the weakness. So far, that has not worked out. It has been followed by more weakness. It is not unusual to see a “confirmed” low followed by more weakness, but the weakness usually does not last long. Given the bullish signs noted above, I am hoping that this weakness is about to end. For that to happen, we need to see indicators improve. That did not happen today.

The daily, bull-bear spread of -14 is Bearish.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, expecting this weakness to end very soon. If not, I’ll have to consider taking a much more conservative market position.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Federal Reserve Minutes ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) will be closed on Thursday, Jan. 9, for the National Day of Mourning for the39th U.S. President James (Jimmy) Carter. Any transaction requested on a holiday, weekend, or after the NYSE closes will be processed on the next business day.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Nearly 50 years after the snail darter temporarily blocked the construction of a dam in Tennessee, researchers at Yale University found that the endangered species technically is not a species at all. The researchers announced Friday that genetic analysis found the fish to be neither a distinct species nor a subspecies, but rather an eastern population of the stargazing darter, which is not and never was considered endangered... Ezra Klein, the liberal New York Times columnist [said], "I am much more skeptical—not of regulation but of a lot of existing regulations," he recently said on his influential podcast.”... As for the snail darter, the conservation efforts worked. The minnow was downgraded from "endangered" to "threatened" in 1984 and eventually delisted entirely in 2022 — two years before the Yale researchers discovered it was never a species to begin with [and 43-years after the dam was built]. Story at...
The Endangered Fish That Halted a Major Dam Was Never Endangered After All
My cmt: When I worked in Government, the National Marine Fisheries (a federal agency) reclassified the Loggerhead turtle in the Chesapeake Bay as a different population. I always suspected it was so they could continue to classify the turtle as Threatened – but who knows? I don’t want to be a conspiracy theorist.

FEDERAL RESERVE MINUTES (CNBC)
“Federal Reserve officials at their December meeting expressed concern about inflation and the impact that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies could have, indicating that they would be moving more slowly on interest rate cuts because of the uncertainty, minutes released Wednesday showed... ‘Almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased,’ the minutes said. ‘As reasons for this judgment, participants cited recent stronger-than-expected readings on inflation and the likely effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy.’“
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/08/fed-minutes-january-2025.html

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Investing.com)
“Initial claims for state jobless aid slipped to 201,000 during the week ended on January 4, down from a prior mark of 211,000, according to a report from the Labor Department on Wednesday. Economists had expected a reading of 214,000.” Story at...
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/weekly-us-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-dip-to-201000-3803018

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 5918.
-VIX fell about 0.7% to 17.70.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.693%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.

SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT
The bull-bear spread of -7 is Bearish, but the improvement from -10 to zero Friday was very bullish.

The10-dMA of the 50-day indicator spread is still rising so that’s bullish; that’s the more important sign at this point. There are worrisome signs.

Wednesday, the S&P 500 remained below its 50-dMA so markets are not out of the woods yet. In addition, Breadth has been falling along with the recent weakness. Over the last 2 and ½ months, more than half of the issues on the NYSE have declined. That has been true since mid-December and it is a “bear now” warning, although the “bear now” warning is more of a warning than an indicator.

The good news? The S&P 500 made a low on 19 December. That low was successfully tested 2 January so it appears that the bottom is in. Indicators confirmed the bottom on 3 January. All we need now is for the price action to validate those observations.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, January 7, 2025

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) will be closed on Thursday, Jan. 9, for the National Day of Mourning for the39th U.S. President James (Jimmy) Carter. Any transaction requested on a holiday, weekend, or after the NYSE closes will be processed on the next business day.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

AMERICAS GREEN MOVEMENT HAS A CHINA PROBLEM (Washington Examiner)
“Every year, charities with leadership linked to the Chinese Communist Party pump millions of dollars into American environmentalist charities, and, in turn, United States nonprofit groups affiliated with the green movement send millions more overseas to aid either the Chinese government directly or organizations closely linked to it. Major American foundations, collectively controlling tens of billions of dollars' worth of assets, take it upon themselves annually to support the Chinese government’s environmental and diplomatic goals. Nonprofit organizations such as the Gates Foundation, Ford Foundation, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Packard Foundation, and the Hewlett Foundation provide both direct and indirect support to the Chinese state in achieving its climate agenda...
... Heritage Foundation analysts argue that China has “hijacked” the American environmental movement for its own benefit, as China has a significant economic interest in replacing fossil fuels with alternative forms of energy. China is the world’s largest producer of solar panels and has a massive and growing electric vehicle industry.
America’s green movement has a China problem

TRUMP’S PARDON PROMISE (WSJ-Excerpt)
“President Trump can’t change what happened four years ago on Jan. 6, when a mob of his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an impossible effort to undo his 2020 election loss. Soon, though, Mr. Trump will get the power to extricate the riot’s participants from the legal consequences of their actions. How far will he go? “A vast majority should not be in jail,” he said recently...
...On Dec. 6 a prison sentence of 12 months was given to Philip Sean Grillo, 50, for a jury conviction of four misdemeanors... “I’m here to stop the steal,” he said. Later: “We f— did it, baby, you understand? We stormed the Capitol!”

Sentencing him was Judge Royce Lamberth, a Reagan appointee. “Having read dozens of indictments related to January 6,” he wrote, “I can say confidently: nobody has been prosecuted for protected First Amendment activity. Nobody is being held hostage. Nobody has been made a prisoner of conscience. Every rioter is in the situation he or she is in because he or she broke the law, and for no other reason.”

As Mr. Grillo was preparing to be led off by U.S. Marshals, CNN reports he shouted a final word: ‘Trump’s gonna pardon me anyways.’” – WSJ Editorial Board. From...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-pardon-promise-for-jan-6-rioters-trespass-capitol-clemency-f2d77e26
My cmt: Per testimony of the January 6 Congressional Committee, there were phone calls between the Proud Boys and White House staff prior to the riots. The text of those calls is unknown. The fact that they took place at all is circumstantial evidence that the White House may have orchestrated some of the mayhem that took place on January 6^th. Mr. Grillo’s statement makes us wonder whether some promise of pardon may have been given as well.

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI
“The actual figure for the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.1. This number surpassed the forecasted figure of 53.5, indicating a more robust expansion in the non-manufacturing sector than initially predicted.” Story at...
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/ism-nonmanufacturing-pmi-beats-expectations-signaling-robust-expansion-in-nonmanufacturing-sector-93CH-3800800

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 1.1% to 5909.
-VIX rose about 11% to 17.82.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.685%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.

SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).

TODAY’S COMMENT
The bull-bear spread of -8 is Bearish, but the improvement from -10 to zero Friday was very bullish.

I try not to react too much to short-term (especially daily) moves in the indicators. The10-dMA of the 50-day indicator spread is still rising so that’s bullish; that’s the more important sign at this point.

There have been only 7 up-days in the last 20-days. That’s a bullish sign that sometimes indicates a reversal.

Wednesday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time.

On a bearish note, Tuesday, the Index closed 0.7% below its 50-dMA. It was unable to stay above the 50-dMA for consecutive days so by that measure, the trend is still down.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)