NAVIGATE THE STOCK MARKET FOCUSES ON:
(1) Daily momentum analysis of the DOW 30 stocks and 15 ETFs across various market sectors.
(2) Stock Market commentary and analysis.
(3) Buy/Sell signals for major market turns.
(((The blog is for information only. You assume all risk of its use; we don’t warrant the accuracy of our content. You must do your own due diligence.)))
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News) “Jobless claim filings fell by 6,000 to 219,000 for the
week ending March 29, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s less than the
226,000 new applications analysts forecast.” Story at... https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-7fbff64930a247667fdc2a2ee271b2eb ISM SERVICES (ISM via PR Newswire) "In March, the Services PMI® registered 50.8
percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the February figure of 53.5 percent.
The Business Activity Index registered 55.9 percent in March, 1.5 percentage
points higher than the 54.4 percent recorded in February. This is the index's
58th consecutive month of expansion...There has been a significant increase
this month in the number of respondents reporting cost increases due to tariff
activity. Despite an increase in comments on tariff impacts and continuing
concerns over potential tariffs and declining governmental spending, there was
a close balance in near-term sentiment, between panelists with good outlooks
and those seeing or expecting declines." Press release at... https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-50-8-march-2025-services-ism-report-on-business-302418828.html MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY -Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 4.8% to 5397. -VIX jumped about 40% to 30.02. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.038%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: XLK added 3/24/2025 SPY added 3/25/2025 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 21 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
Thanks, Donald. We needed a flush out, but I would have
liked it to be smaller. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined and
remained bearish at -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators)
- the 10-dMA of the spread continued down – another bearish sign. Thursday was a statistically significant down-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time. After a 4% down day, I think it is likely that tomorrow
will be up, but It doesn’t help that tomorrow is Friday since investors may not
want to hold stocks over the weekend. Bottoms almost always occur on/or near
Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days
occur at bottoms. In addition, I have another statistical measure that was
triggered. I call that indicator the Panic indicator and today we saw panic. This
signal requires some consideration because at tops, the Panic indicator is a
sell-signal – at bottoms, it is a buy-signal. While I am treating it as a
buy-signal today, it is only one signal and I won’t buy based on this one
indicator. There were other buy-signals (Bollinger Bands; Breadth vs
the S&P 500; Money Trend; Smart Money) but only 40% of the ETF’s I track
were above their 120-dMA’s.That’s not a
number associated with a significant bottom. More importantly, volume was huge today indicating more
selling and fear when compared to the prior low. Today was not a bottom – but it
might be close. A close very near today’s low would probably indicate
it’s time to buy, assuming internals are significantly improved. On the other
hand, if the S&P 500 falls well below today’s low it suggests more selling.
We’ll see... BOTTOM LINE I am bearish at this point, but perhaps there will be a
bottom soon. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in
large groups." – George Carlin “Two things are infinite: the universe and human
stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” - Albert Einstein “Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. “In his outrage over President Trump’s order to pause
federal grants, Sen. Chuck Schumer protested that “virtually any
organization, school, state, police office, county, town or community depends
on federal grant money to run its day-to-day operations” (“The Spending Freeze Panic,” Review & Outlook, Jan. 30).
That statement tells you all you need to know about the bloated federal
government Sen. Schumer has helped build over four decades.” - Richard Brown,
WSJ Letters to the editor at... https://www.wsj.com/opinion/what-schumer-has-wrought-senator-new-york-spending-67d950f6?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos9 FACTORY ORDERS (Breaking the News) “New orders for manufactured goods in the United States
saw a monthly rise of 0.6% or $3.6 billion to land at $594.0 billion in
February...” Story at... https://breakingthenews.net/Article/US-factory-orders-up-by-0.6-in-February/63845819 CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA) “U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 6.2 million barrels from the
previous week. At 439.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at... https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY -Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 5671. -VIX declined about 1% to 21.51. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.127%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: XLK added 3/24/2025 SPY added 3/25/2025 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved a
little, but remained bearish at -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull
indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued down – another bearish
sign. S&P 500 futures are down about 2.7% on Trump tariff
news as I write today’s blog. The retracement from the correction-low to the all-time
high was about 40% (solid arrow on the above chart). As of today’s close, the
retracement from the 28 March low to the 25 March correction high was 44%
(another solid arrow on the chart). From a technical standpoint, the second
bounce may be over. As I write this, the markets are falling hard due to more
tariff talk so that is confirming an end to this bounce. If the after-market action and futures are correct, S&P
500 is likely to retest the correctio-low on Thursday.When it does, we may have a better idea
whether there will be more downside. Unfortunately, tomorrow’s test is not
likely to be successful – fear is likely to drive volume thru the roof. BOTTOM LINE I am cautiously neutral – I suspect an end to the
correction is near, but that’s what I think; indicators may show otherwise. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. “President Donald Trump has often mused, even joked,
about seeking a third term, but over the weekend he made his strongest and most
serious comments yet on a move that constitutional scholars ABC News spoke with
call virtually impossible. ‘I'm not joking...There are methods which you could
do it,’ Trump said, including a scenario in which Vice President JD Vance ran
at the top of the 2028 ticket with Trump as his running mate, only for Trump to
assume the Oval Office after the election...”
Story at... Trump
again floats possibly seeking 3rd term. The Constitution bars it, scholars say “I will end the Ukraine war on the first day of my third
term.” – Donald Trump, 1 April 2025. COULD TRUMP BE PRESIDENT FOR A THIRD TERM? (NTSM) Not easily. Trump can’t be elected President
again. The 22nd Amendment states: “No person shall be elected to
the office of the President more than twice...” Trump’s suggestion that he could run on a ticket as Vice President
and become President for a third term when the elected President resigned doesn’t
work; it violates the Constitution’s 12th amendment. The 12 Amendment
states: “...no person constitutionally ineligible to the
office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United
States.” Trump could try to amend the Constitution, a near
impossibility. Trump could try an illegal method like the scheme he tried
in 2020. If he ran and lost the 2028 election (assuming the Supreme Court
allowed him to run), he could put forth phony electors as he did in 2020. If
Vice president Vance refused to certify the election (due to confusion over the
electors), the House of Representatives could select Trump. That assumes the
GOP still controls the House and they remain spineless. Trump tried that trick to overturn the 2020
election, but Mike Pence followed the Constitution and certified the election despite
Trump. Trump could have been jailed, but
the Democrats delayed prosecution until it was too late. – Meade Stith, NTSM. ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM) “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in
March, 1.3 percentage points lower compared to the 50.3 percent recorded in
February. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 59th month after
one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3
percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall
economy.)” Report from... https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/march/ CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (RTT News) “Partly reflecting a jump by spending on residential
construction, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing U.S.
construction spending increased by more than expected in the month of February...
construction spending climbed by 0.7 percent to an annual rate of $2.196
trillion in February...” Story at... https://www.rttnews.com/3526000/u-s-construction-spending-climbs-more-than-expected-in-february.aspx MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY -Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5633. -VIX declined about 2% to 21.77. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.161%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: XLK added 3/24/2025 SPY added 3/25/2025 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined and
remained bearish at -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators)
- the 10-dMA of the spread continued down – another bearish sign. There were only 3 Bullish indicators out of the 50 or so
that I track. This suggests a retest of the prior low is still more likely than
not. The S&P 500 has not retested the prior low of 5522 on 13 March. The
S&P 500 dropped below the prior low intraday on 31 March and the CNBC crowd
mentioned it today. While that may be encouraging, my work relies on a retest
at the close, not intraday. We won’t know anything until the S&P 500 retests the
old low. When it does, we may have a
better idea whether there will be more downside. The S&P 500 is 1.8% above
the prior low. BOTTOM LINE I am neutral because I suspect that a retest will be
successful. After time has passed, they usually are. If the Trump tariff talk
winds down, investors may settle down. If not, I’ll turn more bearish. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY -Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5612. -VIX rose about 3% to 22.28. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.213%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: XLK added 3/24/2025 SPY added 3/25/2025 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined and
remained bearish at -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators)
- the 10-dMA of the spread reversed down – another bearish sign. A retest of the low of 5522 looks likely now. That is
only about a 1.5% decline from today’s close. As of today, the drop from the
all-time high is 8.7% and the correction, top to bottom has lasted about 3
weeks, but a retest soon would push the total to around a month and a half. The
average correction under 10% lasts about a month. For bigger corrections, the
average from top to bottom is around 2-1/2 months. The low in this correction was about two weeks ago. In 2018,
it took more than a month to retest the prior low. We won’t know anything until the S&P 500 retests the
old low.When it does, we may have a
better idea whether there will be more downside. BOTTOM LINE I am neutral because I suspect that a retest will be
successful. After time has passed, they usually are. If the Trump tariff talk
winds down, investors may settle down. If not, I’ll turn more bearish. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
My competition... “Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. RECESSION ODDS RISE (CNBC) “According to CNBC, the likelihood of a U.S. recession in
the next year is nearing a coin flip, with a Deutsche Bank survey putting the
odds at over 40%. Sentiment surveys suggest rising anxiety among consumers and
business leaders, while unemployment remains low and some data indicate
continued growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell still views the economy as “strong
overall,” but the Fed has trimmed its GDP outlook 2025 and raised its core
inflation forecast.” Video at... Deutsche
Bank Puts U.S. Recession Odds Above 40% Amid Mixed Economic Data | Watch PCE (CNBC) “The core personal consumption expenditures price index showed
a 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest monthly gain since January 2024,
putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.8%...In the all-items measure, the
price index rose 0.3% on the month and 2.5% from a year ago, both in line with
forecasts... Households also grew more cautious with their money, as the
personal saving rate increased to 4.6%, the highest since June 2024.” Story
at... https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/28/pce-inflation-february-2025-.html MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY -Friday the S&P 500 fell about 2% to 5581. -VIX rose about 16% to 21.65. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.253%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: SSO added 3/24/2025 SOLD 3/25/2025 (Decided to reduce
risk and buy SPY instead.) XLK added 3/24/2025 SPY added 3/25/2025 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT Breadth crashed today and down goes Frazier, down goes
Frazier...no, but the indicators fell as fast as Frazier. The daily, bull-bear
spread of 50-indicators fell sharply and turned bearish at -12 (12 more Bear
indicators than Bull indicators). I can’t recall ever seeing such a
big reversal in my indicators, although the 10-dMA of the spread is still
moving higher - bullish sign. Looks like investors made up their minds. A retest of the
low of 5522 looks likely now. That is only about a 1% decline from today’s close.
As of today, the drop from the all-time high is 9.2%. We won’t know anything until the S&P 500 retests the
old low.When it does, we may have a
better idea whether there will be more downside. BOTTOM LINE I am neutral. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals fell to SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Top national security officials for President Donald
Trump, including his defense secretary, texted war plans for upcoming military
strikes in Yemen to a group chat in a secure messaging app that included the
editor-in-chief for The Atlantic, the magazine reported in a story posted
online Monday.” – WAVY TV, Norfolk, VA. “Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. GDP (WSJ) “Gross domestic product grew at a slightly faster pace in
the last three months of 2024 than previously estimated, the Commerce
Department said Thursday. Commerce revised up its fourth-quarter GDP growth
figure to a 2.4% annualized pace, from a previous estimate of 2.3%. That
followed growth of 3.1% in the third quarter.”Story at... https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-fourth-quarter-gdp-revised-higher-caaf0ca6 JOBLESS CLAIMS (CNN) “Initial claims for unemployment benefits aren’t spiking
— in fact, they’re mostly unchanged from last week. There were an estimated
224,000 initial claims for jobless benefits for the week ended March 22, a
decline of 1,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised tally.” Story at... https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/27/economy/us-jobless-claims-doge-federal-applications/index.html MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY -Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.33% to 5693. -VIX rose about 2% to 18.69. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.361%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: SSO added 3/24/2025 SOLD 3/25/2025 (Decided to reduce
risk and buy SPY instead.) XLK added 3/24/2025 SPY added 3/25/2025 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
Investors can’t seem to decide what to do recently; they couldn’t
make up their minds today either. Rinse and repeat. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined,
but remained Bullish at +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
The 10-dMA of the spread improved again – another bullish sign. Repeating: Investors are still trying to decide how much
slowing will be seen in the economy – Economists have the same question but
there aren’t too many answers. Are markets going to re-test the correction low
or not? Unfortunately, I can make a good argument either way. On the bear side,
we didn’t see a successful retest of the low. On the bull side, there have been
some very strong, bullish momentum-indicators after the low. We’ll see... BOTTOM LINE I am cautiously bullish. Indicators suggest the
correction is over, but I have my doubts. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Combatting stupidity and domestic terrorism.” – Michael Political Commentary from Michael Ramirez at... https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html “Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. "I was really the first Democrat to refuse to shut
our government down, and my party was so desperate to pander to shut the
government down. Absurd, absolutely absurd. Six months ago, we were lecturing
the Republicans, ‘You can’t shut the government down.’ Now it’s, ‘Well, yeah,
let’s do these things.’ It’s like that’s part of the problem, to pander, and
they want to pander to the extreme parts of our party, to shut the government
down. I said I will never burn the village down and claim that I’m saving it.”
- Sen. John Fetterman, D-Penn. My cmt: Fetterman was one of 10 Democrats who voted for
the Bill. DURABLE GOODS (Reuters) “Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods
unexpectedly rose in February as businesses rushed to avoid potential price
increases from tariffs, likely boosting capital expenditure in the first
quarter. But the report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday did not
change economists' expectations that economic growth was slowing considerably
in the first quarter...” Story at... https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-core-capital-goods-orders-unexpectedly-drop-february-2025-03-26/ CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA) “U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.3 million barrels from the
previous week. At 433.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
5% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at... https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY -Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 1.1% to 5712. -VIX rose about 7% to 18.33. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.354%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: SSO added 3/24/2025 SOLD 3/25/2025 (Decided to reduce
risk and buy SPY instead.) XLK added 3/24/2025 SPY added 3/25/2025 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined,
but remained Bullish at +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
The 10-dMA of the spread improved again – another bullish sign. On the bear side, the S&P 500 dropped below its
200-dMA. Investors are still trying to decide how much slowing
will be seen in the economy – Economists have the same question but there aren’t
too many answers. Are markets going to re-test the correction low or not?
Unfortunately, I can make a good argument either way. On the bear side, we didn’t
see a successful retest of the low. On the bull side, there have been some very
strong, bullish momentum-indicators after the low. We’ll see... BOTTOM LINE I am cautiously bullish. Indicators suggest the
correction is over, but I have my doubts. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
