“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
1930’s AGAIN? (Benzinga)
“Ray Dalio said the United States has crossed a debt
threshold from which it cannot return, and the Federal Reserve may soon be
forced into a 1930s-style policy of holding interest rates artificially low.
Speaking at the Forbes Iconoclast Summit,
the Bridgewater Associates founder told Bloomberg’s Dani Burger that
$7 trillion in federal spending against $5 trillion in revenue is squeezing the
economy ‘like plaque in the arteries.’ … Dalio compared the likely outcome to
financial repression, where the Treasury and Fed coordinate to suppress yields,
often alongside higher taxation and inflation.” Story at…
Ray
Dalio says US is 'past the point of no return' on debt, sees 1930s-style
'financial repression' coming
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP news)
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits for the week
ending May 30 increased by 13,000 to 225,000, the Labor Department reported
Thursday. That’s the most since early February, before the U.S. and Israel
launched attacks on Iran, but still a historically low level.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-8581eb0c5876003c85d30a44ca7b35e9
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7584.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.40.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.475%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +10 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
While the streak of 9 consecutive up-days has ended, we
still note that 9-days of the 10-days have been up. That remains a lofty number
that still suggests a down-day.
This is one of the bear indicators now in place.
The McClellan Oscillator is negative so that brings back
the Hindenburg warning. (It remains in place 30-days except when the Oscillator
is positive.)
There is a bearish rising wedge pattern in place (see the
above Summary of 50 Indicator Spread Chart), but I am not impressed and it doesn’t
seem to be predicting a big decline.
“The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide
at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows…
wedges definitely slope up and have a bearish bias.” – Investopedia.
There are bullish signs too.
Looking at sentiment numbers, we see that retail-traders
(mom and pop) continue betting more to the bear side now and the sentiment
indicator switched from neutral to bullish. That sets the table for more gains,
but we still expect a down-day or two in the near future. We finally got a down
day yesterday so it will be interesting to see how the traders are positioned
when the numbers come in late tonight.
I may sell my QLD position. I have a profit now, but that
may evaporate tomorrow if we see declines.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish, but markets are still due for a
pause. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) has been the pattern and it may start up
again so the pause may be short – we’ll see.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined t HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 55%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
DEMOCRATS PROMISE TO WRECK THE COURT (WSJ)
“Democrats are likely to retake the House and maybe the
Senate in November, which is reason to ask: What would they do with that power?
One emerging answer is that they seem determined to blow up the Supreme Court. Listen
to Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the betting favorite to be the next Speaker of
the House. “The Supreme Court is a disgrace,” he said in April. “In the new
Congress, we’re going to have to do something about this Supreme Court, and let
me be very clear: Everything is on the table—everything to deal with this
corrupt MAGA majority.”…
…But what really angers Democrats is that the Supreme
Court is no longer a second progressive legislature that can impose policies
they can’t get through Congress.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/democrats-promise-to-wreck-the-supreme-court-bdc9a277
My cmt: This is the sort of wacko idea that makes even
mostly-rational people vote Republican, even if it means voting for Trump.
FRIGHTENING SCENARIO (Fortune)
“Where we are today is frightening,” Ahamed, the Pulitzer
Prize-winning author of Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who
Broke the World, told Fortune in an interview. The
historian, whose landmark 2009 book chronicled how four central bankers helped
cause the Great Depression, was speaking about America’s national debt — now
hovering around $39 trillion — and the mounting risks he sees in the global
financial system…In 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis,
then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was in Beijing when he learned that Russia
had approached China with a proposal: dump their massive holdings of U.S.
agency debt, and accelerate the financial meltdown already underway on Wall
Street. “The Chinese very sensibly said no,” Ahamed recounted. But the episode
left a mark on him. If the next financial crisis played out against the
backdrop of extreme tension with China, he added, “you could imagine a lot of
things happening that would not be … that would not work out.” …
… “That’s essentially what happened between Germany and
France in 1873. And it damaged the world for 20 years.”
After defeating France in the Franco-Prussian War of
1870–71, as explained in the book (and which this author would recommend
checking out), Germany sought to press its advantage financially — deliberately
targeting France’s silver reserves in a bid to destroy its economic standing.
The move triggered a global collapse of silver prices, froze half the world’s
precious metal reserves, and helped ignite the cascading crises of 1873. The
resulting depression lasted two decades… Could China do the same to the United
States, at a moment when Washington is least able to absorb it?” Story at…
‘Where
we are today is frightening’: A Pulitzer-winning historian sees a doomsday
scenario involving China and the national debt
ADP EMPLOYMENT (CNBC)
“Private hiring expanded at a brisk pace in May,
providing further indication of a stable labor market, ADP reported Wednesday.
The payrolls processing firm said companies added 122,000
workers for the month, up from 105,000
in April…” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/adp-jobs-report-may-2026-payrolls-increase-by-122000.html
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (Investing.com)
“This month’s reading of 54.5 not only exceeds
expectations but also points to a robust pace of growth within the sector. Such
a performance is generally perceived as a positive signal for the U.S. economy,
reflecting increased demand and activity across various service-oriented
industries.” Story at…
https://m.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/ism-nonmanufacturing-pmi-surpasses-expectations-signals-growth-93CH-4724603?ampMode=1
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.7% to 7554.
-VIX rose about 2% to 16.06.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.481%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +16 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
The S&P 500 finally had a down-Day after 9 straight
up-days and 9 up out of the last 10. The last time there were 9-days up in 10 was
back in April. The S&P 500 dropped for the next 2 days, but there was no
correction. When we had 9 out of 10 up-days in early December, the Index
dropped about 4% in the following 2 weeks.
Wednesday was a statistically significant down-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time.
The S&P 500 was 11% above its 200-dMA Wednesday. Now it
has dropped to 10% above the 200-day. A
value of 12% is my sell signal for this indicator, but we never act on only one
indicator.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish, but markets are due for a pause.
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) has been the pattern and it may start up again so
the pause may be short – we’ll see.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is
a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the
Index.)
My invested position is about 55%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
TRUMP CHURCHILL OR CHAMBERLAIN (WSJ)
“Donald Trump, the pre-eminent dealmaker, is out of his
element (“Will Trump Bail Out Iran’s Regime?” Review & Outlook,
May 26). For decades he has succeeded in the business world because, however
brash and coercive his negotiations, he could always rely on the force of the
law to uphold his legal contracts. With Iran, however,
he is dealing with religious fanatics: They aren’t moved by economic factors,
they can’t be bullied by overwhelming force, and there are no laws to enforce
agreements.
Mr. Trump now has to decide if he will risk his long-term
legacy for short-term electoral success. American voters may reward him for the
immediate gratification of lower gas prices, but history will judge him harshly
if he squanders this chance to eliminate the greatest threat we have faced
since World War II.
President Trump is facing a critical moment in his
administration—a Churchill-or-Chamberlain crossroads. Will his legacy be the
successful defense of America—and indeed Western civilization—against Islamic
jihad, or will his bold attacks against the Iranian regime be sacrificed to
political expediency and be remembered as another disgraceful episode of
appeasement?” - Stanley Spatz, Letter to Editor, WSJ at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-churchill-or-chamberlain-crossroads-0f0ad6ce
RECESSION? (MSN)
“…according to Moody's top economist Mark Zandi, who said
Donald Trump has about a week to secure a peace deal before the effects of the
war make it more likely that the economy will fall into a recession. According
to reports on Monday, Iran has said that it will cease negotiations and block
the Strait of Hormuz until key demands are met. That's bad news for Trump, who
has teased a deal for weeks with nothing concrete to show for it. Oil spiked on
Monday morning, with Brent and US crude prices rising by about 7%.” Story at…
Economist
Mark Zandi says Trump has a week to strike Iran deal before US faces a 'real
problem'
JOB OPENINGS (CNBC)
“Job openings hit their highest level in nearly two years
during April while hiring fell sharply, according to a government report
Tuesday that showed rising demand but also slow hiring in the labor market. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that available employment hit 7.6 million
for the month, a surge of 731,000 from the prior month and the highest level
since May 2024.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/02/job-openings-april-2026.html
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 7610.
-VIX declined about 2% to 15.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.461%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
Deja-vu all over again:
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +18 to +16 (18 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
Even More Overbought: 9 of the last 10-days have
been up-days; while 15 of the last 20 have been up. Further, the last 9 days
have all been higher than the day before. Those are lofty numbers that should
bring a down day soon. Looking at
sentiment numbers, we see that retail-traders (mom and pop) continue betting
more to the bear side now and the sentiment indicator switched from neutral to
bullish. That sets the table for more gains, but we still expect a down-day or
two in the near future.
The S&P 500 made another all-time high today,
Tuesday. 143 issues on the NYSE made a new, 52-week high today; that is below
the 5-year average, but still high enough so that we don’t have a bearish
signal. Breadth remained positive. These stats show breadth is good enough that
we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon.
Indicators look good. Bear signals are unremarkable, but
we’re due for a down day and traders are still betting on a down-day. When it
comes, the down-day might be a good time to add to stock holdings in the
trading portfolio.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish – I expect a down day soon,
probably tomorrow, Wednesday. (That’s what I said yesterday.)
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of
Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when
it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 55%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
A REPUBLICAN TIME FOR CHOOSING (WSJ-Excerpt)
“The Republican Party faces a momentous choice: Will we
remain a party of conservative beliefs, or will we follow the siren song of
populism?...
…Where conservatives have historically viewed politics as
the art of the possible, progressives see politics as a path to alter society
beyond recognition in a quest for material equity, environmental nirvana, or
other alleged perfections. Progressives invariably try to destroy whatever
stands in their way. Populism is progressivism in disguise. It strikes at us
not from the Democratic Party but from within our own ranks, sparking a battle
for the soul of the Republican Party…Popular opinion is fickle. Principles are
final. When principles guide us, they can lead us to our greatest political
successes. The challenge for conservatives is to hold fast to our principles.
This means believing in personal and economic liberty. It means standing up to
evil regimes and standing with the friends of freedom on the world stage. It
means conducting ourselves with dignity and civility. Above all, it means
respecting the Constitution. Leaders fade into history. The politics of
convenience driven by the passing moment never prevail, but principles endure.”
– Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States (2017-21), and founder of
Advancing American Freedom. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-republican-time-for-choosing-c1f4f8a4
TRUMP BACKS OFF ANTI-WEAPONIZATION SLUSH FUND (NBC News)
“The Trump administration signaled Monday it is backing
off on creating a $1.8 billion fund announced by the Justice Department
that could send money to allies of President Donald Trump deemed to be “victims
of lawfare and weaponization.”
It comes after a fierce and rare backlash from Senate Republicans, who
threatened to team up with Democrats to block the fund. About half the
Republican conference appeared ready to vote with Democrats to restrict or kill
it, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said last week…“The only thing that’s going to
solve this problem, to get immigration funded and law enforced, is for the
president to do away with the weaponization fund,” Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa,
the chair of the Judiciary Committee that oversees DOJ, said.” Story at…
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-appears-back-18-billion-anti-weaponization-fund-r-rcna347884
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“In May, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in
expansion territory, growing at a faster pace compared to the month before. Of
the five subindexes that make up the PMI®, the New Orders index
indicated faster growth compared to the previous month, the Supplier Deliveries
index stayed the same, the Production Index grew at a faster rate, and the
Employment and Inventories indexes remained in contraction, though both improved.”
Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/may/
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (ColoradoBiz)
“U.S. construction spending increased 0.4% from March to
April and 0.9% from a year earlier, according to an analysis of new federal
data by the Associated General Contractors of America.” Story at…
https://coloradobiz.com/us-construction-spending-rises-transportation-funding-renewal/
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7600.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.05.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.455%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds
$80 billion to buyback plan.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 21 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
This update is similar to recent posts:
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from +13 to +18 (18 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
More Overbought: 8 of the last 10-days have been up-days;
while 14 of the last 20 have been up. Further, the last 8 days have all been
higher than the day before. Those are lofty numbers that should bring a down
day soon. Looking at sentiment numbers,
we see that retail-traders (mom and pop) are betting more to the bear side now.
If they keep that up a little longer the sentiment indicator will switch from
neutral to bullish.
The S&P 500 made another all-time high today,
Monday. 121 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is below the 5-year
average, but still high enough so that we don’t have a bearish signal. Breadth
remained positive - more than 50% of stocks on the NYSE have been up over the
last 10-days. These stats show breadth is good enough that we don’t need to
worry about a correction >10% anytime soon.
Indicators look good. Bear signals are unremarkable, but
we’re due for a down day and traders are actually betting on a down-day. When
it comes, the down-day might be a good time to add to stock holdings in the
trading portfolio.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish – I expect a down day soon, probably
tomorrow, Tuesday.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 55%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
REPARATIONS FOR TRUMP AND SLAVERY (WSJ – EXCERPT)
“There are plenty of reasons to be wary of President
Trump’s so-called Anti-Weaponization Fund, which will compensate claimants who
say federal law-enforcement or regulatory agencies targeted them for political
reasons. These include the cost, nearly $2 billion in public funds, and the
wrongful actions of many of the prospective recipients, including rioters who
assaulted police officers on Jan. 6, 2021.
Here’s another reason: It will set a precedent that a
future president could use to bypass Congress and the courts to implement
wide-reaching policies without congressional support—including race-based
reparations…
…The Anti-Weaponization Fund is to be funded by the
department’s Judgment Fund, which Congress created to avoid having to approve
payment of every monetary claim against the government…The administration of
the Judgment Fund has relied on Justice Department attorneys to weigh carefully
and fairly the litigation risk of suits against the government and using funds
when settlement was prudent…
… But the Anti-Weaponization Fund is the wrong remedy,
and one that risks making the government even more lawless.” - Darin R. Bartram
practices appellate and constitutional law in Washington
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/reparations-for-trump-and-slavery-e439ce51
My comment: Usually when Congress creates a slush fund
administered by bureaucrats, there are tight limits on the amount of funds and
how they are spent. More than a billion dollars? Unbelievable. Shame on Justice
Department attorneys who authorized this although it is possible they were told
authorize this or you’re fired. That’s the way Justice has worked under Trump
as he has pursued his enemies thru lawfare.
CHICAGO PMI (Crypto Briefing.com)
“The May Chicago Business Barometer blew past the 50.3
consensus estimate by a wide margin, marking one of the sharpest monthly gains
in recent memory. The Chicago Business Barometer, better known as the Chicago
PMI, came in at 62.7 for May 2026.” Story at…
https://cryptobriefing.com/chicago-pmi-surges-62-7-beats-forecast/
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7580.
-VIX declined about 3% to 15.32.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.437%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds
$80 billion to buyback plan.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from
+15 to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
7 of the last 10-days have been up-days; while 14 of the
last 20 have been up. Further, the last 7 days have all been higher than the
day before. Those are lofty numbers that should bring a down-day soon. Looking at sentiment numbers, we see that retail-traders
(mom and pop) are betting more to the bear side now. They are betting the down-day will be soon. If they keep that up a
little longer the sentiment indicator will switch from neutral to bullish.
The S&P 500 made another all-time high today, Friday.
114 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is well below the 5-year
average, but still high enough so that we don’t have a bearish signal. Breadth
remained positive - more than 50% of stocks on the NYSE have been up over the
last 10-days. These stats show breadth is good enough that we don’t need to
worry about a correction >10% anytime soon.
Indicators look good. Bear signals are unremarkable, but
we’re due for a down day and traders are actually betting on a down-day. When
it comes, the down-day might be a good time to add to stock holdings in the
trading portfolio.
I am not convinced an Iran settlement is at hand, but we
may find out soon. According to news sources, Trump is meeting with advisors in
the Situation Room now.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 55%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“One of the painful signs of years of dumbed-down
education is how many people are unable to make a coherent argument. They can
vent their emotions, question other people’s motives, make bold assertions,
repeat slogans—anything except reason.” ― Thomas
Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in
large groups." – George Carlin
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and
realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
THE NAVY CAN’T OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND IRAN KNOWS
IT (National Security Journal)
“…The Navy has struggled to reopen the strait due to
Iran’s vast, complex web of coastal defenses and offensive capabilities arrayed
along its expansive coastline bordering the Strait of Hormuz. Everything from
drone swarms to anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) now threatens the safe
passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz….
…In fact, US Navy Adm. Daryl L. Caudie told the Senate Subcommittee on Defense for the
Committee on Appropriations on May 21 of this year that “There are many things
we can continue doing to enhance the blockade, but to actually start doing
something where I’m providing escort services through a contested strait will,
in my military opinion, exceed the capacity of the Navy to do that
effectively.” …
…For those hoping for a peaceful end, that is the least
likely outcome here. The more likely scenario is that Trump has simply bought
himself time with diplomacy as a ruse. He can’t let the Iranians continue their
chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, and Trump can’t risk the
perception that he’s essentially surrendering to the Islamic Republic.” Story
at…
'Trump
card': The US Navy has no way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Iran knows it
WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT (Motley Fool)
“…during his final press conference as Federal Reserve
Chairman, Jerome Powell warned that the Middle East conflict had clouded the
economic outlook. Interest rate cuts, once considered a given in 2026, are now
highly unlikely. Instead, soaring Treasury yields hint at interest rate hikes
and a steep decline in the stock market.” Story at…
Stock
market investors got a final warning from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. History says
this will happen next.
PCE PRICES (CBS)
“The personal consumption expenditures price index — the
Fed's preferred inflation measure — rose last month at an annual rate of 3.8%, the
Commerce Department reported on Thursday. That's up from 3.5% in March and
2.8% from February, and the highest since May 2023.”
Story at…
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pce-report-today-inflation-kevin-warsh-federal-reserve/
My cmt: Inflation at 3.8% is not good news, but it came
in better than expected so…it’s good news?
JOBLESS CLAIMS (WSJ)
“The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits
rose to 215,000 in the week ended May 23, the Labor Department said Thursday.
That represented an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s level, which was
revised up by 1,000 from 209,000 to 210,000.“ Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/u-s-jobless-claims-rose-last-week-5e4b14e1
DURABLE GOODS (Advisor Perspectives)
“New orders for manufactured durable goods jumped 7.9% in
April to $345.96B, almost twice as much as the projected 4.0% monthly growth.
Compared to a year ago, new orders are up 17.2%.” Story at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/05/28/durable-goods-orders-jump-7-9-in-april-more-than-expected
GDP (WSJ)
“The U.S. economy grew more slowly during the first three
months of the year, updated government data showed Thursday. Gross
domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the
U.S., rose at a 1.6% seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate in January
through March…” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/q1-gross-domestic-product-revision-e1a6ff93
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 7564.
-VIX declined about 3% to 15.74.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.453%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds
$80 billion to buyback plan.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +15
(15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I
consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on
the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH
sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high today, Thursday.
111 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is well below the 5-year
average, but still high enough so that we don’t have a bearish signal. Breadth
remained positive - more than 50% of stocks on the NYSE have been up over the
last 10-days. These stats show breadth is good enough that we don’t need to
worry about a correction >10% anytime soon.
Indicators look good. Bear signals are unremarkable. I
added a QLD trade today.
I am not convinced a settlement with Iran is at hand. While many
are optimistic about the Iran conflict, I doubt that there will be an easy
resolution. How the stock market may respond to more shooting is an unknown.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish – I’m following indicators.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of
Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when
it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 50%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
My basket of Market Internals declined t HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.) 
