Jobless Claims ... Productivity ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
PRIVATE EQUITY – NO THANKS (Business insider via msn)
“Trump signed an executive order on Thursday that will make it easier for several alternative investments to be added to 401(k) accounts. The list includes private equity, which was previously reserved for sophisticated investors.
It's a proposal that's raising red flags among some investment experts, who say a 401(k) should typically be a simple and relatively low-risk investment vehicle. Private equity investments, meanwhile, are often concentrated in a small number of portfolio companies, are less liquid than stocks and bonds, and carry valuations that can be difficult to measure day-to-day.” Story at...
Trump's 401(k) executive order marks big changes for retirement savings — and possibly puts your money at risk
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“In the week ending July 26, 1.974 million continuing claims were filed, up from 1.936 million the week prior and the highest level seen since November 2021, according to data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning... weekly filings for unemployment benefits increased to 226,000 in the week ending Aug. 2, up from 221,000 the week prior.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/continuing-claims-for-unemployment-benefits-hit-highest-level-since-november-2021-125849669.html
 
PRODUCTIVITY (Bloomberg)
“US labor productivity rebounded in the second quarter along with the economy, resuming a trend of efficiency gains that are helping keep a lid on wage-related inflationary pressures.” Story at...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-07/us-productivity-rebounds-in-second-quarter-as-output-picked-up
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6340.
-VIX declined about 1% to 16.57.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.248% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved, but remained bearish at -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued falling – a bearish sign.
 
The below chart is the Buying-Pressure minus Selling Pressure indicator developed (I think) by Lowry Research. I say, “I think” because I’ve never seen this indicator explained by Lowry Research.  The version I use is based on explanations of the indicator by others. As shown in the chart, this indicator remains sharply bearish. We also note that the chart of the S&P 500 looks different than it does in the Indicator Spread Chart and that’s only because the scales are different. So much for detailed chart analysis!  
 

Indicators suggested a correction greater than 10% when the S&P 500 made its all-time high a week ago. That signal is usually correct, but I am beginning to wonder.
 
The indicators have been strongly bearish, but price action hasn’t mirrored the indicators. One wonders whether we’ll see a big reversal higher in the indicators suggesting an end to market weakness.  Currently, several of the bearish indicators are holding on to signals that first occurred several days ago.  They remain bearish until other signals influence those bearish signs.  For example, the Hindenburg Omen occurred last week, but per the Hindenburg rules, it remains in effect until the McClellan Oscillator turns bullish. The 10-dMA of breadth is also negative. If breadth were to improve, the 10-day breadth indicator, McClellan Oscillator and the Hindenburg Omen would flip to neutral or bullish.
 
Indicators are still bearish, so I won’t be adding to stocks now, but it could be soon.  The price action is suggesting this market is hanging on. Maybe we’ll get that rapid improvement in indicators.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Until proven otherwise, I’m bearish. (Trade what you see; not what you think.)
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.