Needless to say, when my expectation for a drop in the S&P today, didn’t pan out, I sold my QID (2xshort) position in the morning for a small gain…enough to take my wife out to Chick-Fil-A for a milkshake. I am reminded again of my favorite trading advice…trade what you see not what you think.
Consumer confidence down again…terrible housing statistics; wars; natural disaster; food, clothing, & fuel prices rising rapidly; dogs and cats…living together – no problem…..
This market just wants to go up.
I don’t have much of a rule for how far above the trend line the market should be before the trend is now up. Some say we would need to be 3% above trend; others say it must close above trend for 2-days. A combination seems about right. As they say, “The trend is your friend.” (Everything I learned about the stock market, I learned in kindergarten…and I seem to have forgotten most of that!)
The NTMS analysis may give us a Buy signal soon. Otherwise, let’s see what happens tomorrow.
The NTSM analysis is still improving, still neutral, and still a HOLD.
