From http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/market-death-cross-mode-stay-sidelines-says-louise-152153683.html
here’s Louis Yamada’s view on the market.
Louise
Yamada is a technical analyst who guests on CNBC often. She is the CEO of - Louise Yamada Technical Research
Advisors, LLC ("LYA").
Previously, she worked for 25-years at Smith Barney (Citigroup) as a
top-ranked "Institutional Investor" technical analyst.
Louise says "...stay on the Sidelines…We are "finished
with a cyclical bull and entering a cyclical bear." It's not the end of
the world, just an end of the uptrend off the 2009 lows. Since January of this
year, the market has seen falling volume on rallies. Simply put, longs are
nervous and ever less inclined to buy the dips. As we saw when the S&P500
uptrend from 2009 broke definitively around the 1,300 level, followed by
support failing at 1,250; nervous bulls sell in a hurry.”
She said, “I would rather than be out of the
market wishing I was in instead of in the market wishing I was out.”
Today
the NTSM analysis indicates Hold so we remain out of the market per our last
Sell signal.
(See
the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this
page).
I sold on the 27 July sell signal at S&P 500 1301 and I am
defensively positioned with only a small amount of my portfolio invested in
stocks. (Zero stocks in the 401k.) Today
I added to a short position to make it 75% of the trading portfolio using QID
(2xshort the Nasdaq 100). I may not have
the top, but I believe we will have to at least test the previous low of 1119
(6% below today’s close). There is
potential for a much greater drop since it looks like we may be heading into
another recession that will take the market down in the range of 1050 to
825. As always, we’ll have to wait and
see.
