Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Sequestration: from the House

SEQUESTRATION IS GOING TO HAPPEN – Cole, R-Oklahoma
(From “The Examiner”)
“Cole said Monday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that sequestration “is going to happen,” but he is open to redistributing the cuts to make sure they are targeted to wasteful spending.”

“… it is going to happen…(but) I’m more than happy to negotiate with the President how you redistribute the cuts— a lot less discretionary, more nondiscretionary, different categories, that makes sense…but again, they’re going to take place, and they need to take place. We’re running trillion-dollar debts.”  Full story at…
http://washingtonexaminer.com/rep.-cole-sequestration-spending-cuts-need-to-take-place/article/2521173

As noted in several previous blogs this might take the US close to recession and provide a catalyst for a pullback.

MARKET RECAP
Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up 0.2% to 1,519 (rounded).  VIX fell about 2.4%, to 12.62.

NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM analysis switched to BUY at the close. 

That doesn’t mean this is a great time to buy (I think we are near a short-term top); but it’s an indication that the market trend is strongly up. 

The VIX has fallen enough to push the VIX indicator to Buy along with the PRICE indicator.  Sentiment is back up to 62%-bulls (based on $ invested in selected Guggenheim bull/bear funds) as of Monday’s close.  Sentiment is heading toward a sell, but still has a ways to go.  (Sell for this indicator is 67%-bulls.)

MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on a BUY signal 7 of 9-days, and more importantly, consecutive closes above the prior high of 1466, I moved into the stock market at 1471 on the S&P 500 on 14 January.  I am currently invested in a range of near 50% invested in stocks.