Don’t’ fight the FED.
MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P finished up 0.7% to 1745 (rounded) at the close.
VIX fell 3% to 13.04.
Friday, the S&P finished up 0.7% to 1745 (rounded) at the close.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing is 57%. (A
number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the
market.)
New-highs outpaced new-lows Friday, leaving the spread
(new-hi minus new-low) at +442 (it was +308 Thursday). The 10-day moving average of change in the
spread is plus 33.
Market Internals remain Positive on the market for this
short term indicator.
NTSM
The overall long-term NTSM analysis is BUY again at the
close Friday.
I haven’t gone back into the market for the reasons I
noted yesterday, Thursday. Here are a
few more reasons I’m waiting: Volume was
more than 25% above normal (monthly average) on the NYSE today. Given the up day, I think it is a combination
of short squeeze and possibly some panic buying. The S&P 500 is near its upper trend line
so there should be better buying opportunities ahead. The S&P 500 still has not cleared the
triple-top concern that I have. I want to see the index significantly above its
old high. Today it closed 1% over the old high.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March
(S&P 500 -1540). The NTSM system
sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just
another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally
– I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!) I have no problems leaving 20% or 30%
invested. If the market is cut in half
(worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I
will have some invested if the market goes up.
No system is perfect. 
