“U.S. jobless claims in the week ended Nov. 16 dropped by 21,000 to 323,000, the fewest since the week ended Sept. 28, from a revised 344,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The median forecast of 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a drop to 335,000.” General market story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-21/u-s-stock-index-futures-advance-before-jobless-report.html
For a more detailed look at
claims see Doug Short’s website at…
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Weekly-Unemployment-Claims.php
US FACTORIES REBOUND, BUT EUROPE, CHINA FALTER (Reuters)
“Manufacturing activity and output rebounded in the
United States this month, according to the Markit "flash," or
preliminary U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, after hitting a
one-year low in October. But the overall
pace of growth remained modest and ‘is barely generating any employment growth’
in the sector, said Markit chief economist Chris Williamson.” Story at…http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/21/us-global-economy-idUSBRE9AK0IX20131121
SOFT PHILLY FED SURVEY RAISES MANUFACTURING DOUBTS
(MarketWatch)
“The lowest reading of the Philadelphia Fed’s
manufacturing survey since May has some economists fretting about a slowdown in
the key manufacturing sector. The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index slowed to a reading of 6.5 in November from 19.8 in October. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected a reading of 14.5…“We believe the weaker performance of the regional surveys in November may indicate some latent producer retrenchment in the wake of the October government shutdown as manufacturers continue to face an uncertain environment ahead,” he said. Full story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/soft-philly-fed-survey-raises-manufacturing-doubts-2013-11-21?link=MW_home_latest_news
MARKET REPORT
Thursday, the S&P was up 0.8% to 1796 (rounded).
VIX was down 6%
to 12.66.Thursday, the S&P was up 0.8% to 1796 (rounded).
The markets tend to be positive prior to Holidays, so
next week may provide some up action before Thursday. After that, I think we will see some down
time. The S&P 500 is 9.3% above its
200-dMA and the value of {Sentiment} x {Percent above the 200-dayMA} is now
7%. Both are signaling a pullback of
some kind. Of course, those pullbacks
have been exceedingly small in the QE era.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing jumped up
to 52% at the close Thursday. (A number above
50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.)
New-highs outpaced new-lows Thursday, leaving the spread
(new-hi minus new-low) at +83 (it was 0 Wednesday). The 10-day moving average of change in the
spread was minus +1. In other words over
the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 1 each day.
The 4-measures of Market Internals that I track for this
indicator did not agree, so this trend following indicator is neutral.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but in 2013 (so far), if I had been buying the positive
ratings and selling negative ratings I would have under-performed a
buy-and-hold strategy.
NTSM ANALYSIS
Sentiment is EXTREME
negative at 75%-bulls for the 5-day indicator.
All other NTSM indicators are
neutral. Overall, NTSM is neutral. That is a broken record.
(I am mostly out of the market already.)
MY INVESTED POSITION (NO CHANGE)
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March
(S&P 500 -1540). The NTSM system
sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just
another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally
– I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!) I have no problems leaving 20% or 30%
invested. If the market is cut in half
(worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I
will have some invested if the market goes up.
No system is perfect.
I still lean toward getting back in, after a pullback, to
speculate on a final ride to the top.
NTSM did give several buy signals over the weeks of 14 and 21 Oct, but
the market just looks too frothy to rush back in…we’ll see if the market will
pullback so I can join the insanity. If
not, cash is fine.
