I have a busy evening, so I’ll post some thoughts before the close.
DECEMBER RETAIL SALES MODESTLY HIGHER (Bloomberg)
“Purchases
increased 0.2 percent after a 0.4 percent advance in November…Commerce
Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 86
economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.1 percent gain. Excluding cars, demand jumped by the most
in almost a year…Purchases excluding auto dealers climbed 0.7 percent in
December, the biggest gain since February, today’s report showed. In addition
to food stores, other retailers showing increased demand included clothing
stores, restaurants and pharmacies.”
MARKET MUSINGS
It looks like a move up to about 1835 would trigger
another statistically significant day in price/volume action based on
statistical analysis of price/volume movement.
These days are followed by a reversal about 60% of the time so a down-day
is favored for tomorrow if the index does indeed trade to the 1835 level on at
least average volume.
Tops are often periods of higher back and forth price
moves as traders try to figure out the long-term direction of prices. For example, in April of 2012 there were 6-statistically
significant days in 9-trading days after the 2 April top that was followed by a
10% decline. This will be an interesting trend to watch.
The most recent top was 31 December at S&P 500 1848. The S&P 500 was 10.1% above its 200-dMA on
the 31st and that level has preceded corrections in 2011 and 2012
and small pullbacks in 2013. This is too
early to call; so far the trend remains up.
I will post today’s MARKET REPORT tomorrow, but I don’t
expect any change in long-term analysis – it will likely remain HOLD.
