Blogging can be problematic with a Hurricane on the way. Here’s a link to the latest track.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145625.shtml?5-daynl#contents
I’m on the southeast coast so expect shortened blog commentary or a possible outage IF we lose power or connectivity. Since today is busy, here’s some news and I’ll post stock market analysis later tonight.
VALUATION PRICE TO GDP (The Elliott Wave Lives On)
"On Tuesday [23 Jun 14], the day before the GDP report, the Wilshire 5000 hit $20.909tn. With GDP currently at $17.016tn, this represents a 23% premium over the total economy in the US. Of course, lots of US companies do lots of business overseas. Since the mid-1980′s, however, a total market cap with this kind of premium over the GDP has only been reached twice: 1998 and 2000…prior to 1997, bull markets topped before even reaching a premium." Commentary at...
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/
MORE ON VALUATION (Advisor Perspectives)
This was too lengthy to easily summarize. See…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/PE-Ratios-and-Market-Valuation.php
…for more on valuation. Bottom line: valuations are high and by some measures (and based on market history) it would take a fall to around 550 on the S&P 500 to reach a bottom. Ouch! Let’s hope we don’t see anything like that. Unfortunately, market history says otherwise though a collapse to 550 seems highly unlikely. A crash of around 50% is almost certain; we just don’t know the timing. Is it 1-year away? 5-years away? I'm guessing sooner rather than later.
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING DISSAPOINTS (Briefing.com)
“Construction spending increased 0.1% in May following an upwardly revised 0.8% (from 0.2%) gain in April…There is still no sign of rapid construction growth after the extreme winter. The idea of pent-up demand from delayed production remains a theory.” Charts and commentary at…
https://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/const.htm
PMI MANUFACTURING REPORT (Advisor Perspectives)
“Today the Institute for Supply Management published its
May Manufacturing Report.
The latest headline PMI at 55.3 came in virtually unchanged from last month's
55.4 percent...” For commentary and analysis see Doug Short’s site at…http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ISM-Manufacturing.php
CMT: This was a
slightly disappointing report too. Nothing
here is building too much confidence.
The FED is holding this market together.
