“According to the new Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, US employers had 4.834 million job openings in October. This was up from 4.685 million in September…Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi's Chris Rupkey noted…"Job openings now are larger than any month during the housing bubble economy years 2004 to 2007. The Fed better re-check their calculations for slack in the economy. This is not a weak labor market." Story at…
http://www.businessinsider.com/jolts-oct-2014-2014-12
Stocks were down dramatically in the morning, but recovered for the rest of the day. Much of today’s movement in the US stock market in the morning was blamed on China. (I’d guess the recovery had more to do with rising oil prices than anything else.) See below…
CHINA CLAMPS DOWN ON CORPORATE DEBT (CNBC)
“China's official bond clearing house surprised traders when it clamped down on the corporate bond market on Monday, excluding about 500 billion yuan ($81 billion) worth of corporate bonds from being used for bond repurchase agreements….The move follows other measures to crack down on fixed income trade, in particular higher-risk debt issued by low-quality issuers…Chinese authorities are struggling to manage a massive $3 trillion in outstanding local government debt, much of it raised by LGFVs to finance infrastructure and real estate projects during the global financial crisis.” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102250530
MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P 500 was unchanged at 2060 (rounded).
VIX was UP about 5% to 14.89.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dropped to 2.21.
SHORT? NO.
Yesterday, I was anticipating a big up-day and I said, “I may even go short for a quick trade.” Since Tuesday was not a big up-day, I didn’t short. Even if it had been, I would have only taken a relatively small trading position leaving me net long overall. The NTSM long term indicator is still HOLD so I will still be long overall until that changes.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) was 49% at the close Tuesday. (A number below 50% is usually BAD news for the markets.) New-lows outpaced New-highs Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was minus-140 . (It was -72 Monday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus-28. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased by 28-each day.
New-high/new-low stats are still headed down and that is generally a bad sign. Internals remained negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
The long-term NTSM system analysis remained HOLD Tuesday. Only VIX is positive. Other indicators are neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I moved some funds back into the market on 17 October
2014 as a trade and increased my position
in stocks from 30% to about 40% overall.
I added more 20 Oct, to bring my stock investments up to 50%. I am
semi-retired, 50% is Fully-invested for me. I remain 50% invested in stocks.--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): HOLD
Ensco price is going to reflect oil prices. If you think they are near a bottom, this is a great buy with high dividends. If not; it’s a dog.
I will sell ENSCO as a tax loss strategy this year. The oils bounced Tuesday. (Any help is appreciated.)
ENSCO’S DIVIDEND LOOKS OK (Seeking Alpha)
“Ensco's dividend and interest outgo was just 40% of the company's operating cash flow. Therefore, from these metrics, Ensco is clearly well positioned to continue paying $3 per share dividends into 2015.
According to the company earnings transcript -
‘We remain confident in our ability to meet our dividend payment given contracted revenue backlog of $11 billion, which is front end loaded and matches up well with our CapEx commitments in 2015 and 2016.’” Story at…
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2723825-will-ensco-cut-dividends?user_id=28010393&uprof=44&dr=1
