“Contentious labor negotiations at key West Coast seaports are giving U.S. manufacturers a headache: Many executives say work slowdowns are hurting their businesses by hampering the flow of imported raw materials and other goods. The Institute for Supply Management index said its index of U.S. manufacturing conditions fell to 55.5% in December from 58.7% in November, in part for that reason. That’s the lowest reading since June…” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ism-slowdown-tied-to-labor-strife-at-key-shipping-ports-2015-01-02
IS THE SECULAR BEAR MARKET OVER?
The Nasdaq Composite is only 6% below its all-time high. A break above 5050 ends the Dot.com bear market that started in 2000. Most secular (long term) bear markets have three major declines. So far, this Bear has fallen twice: 2001 and 2009. Perhaps this time really will be different.
MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P 500 was down a point to 2058 (rounded).
VIX was down about 7% to 17.79.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was 2.11%.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) was significantly higher to 63% at the close Friday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Friday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +63. (It was 129 Thursday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +10. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED by 10-each day.
Internals are neutral on the market, but only because the up volume has been weak recently.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
The long-term NTSM system analysis was BUY today echoing previous signals.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully at 50% invested in stocks (conservative for a retired guy).
