FOMC (Yahoo Finance)
The FED statement follows: “Blahblahblahblah…rates
unchanged… blahbahblah…data dependent…blahblahblah.”
“The Federal Reserve once again pushed back plans to
raise interest rates on Wednesday, a widely expected move following a series of
mixed economic reports and varied signals from Fed officials. After
its two-day policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold the
federal funds rate between 0.25% and 0.50%, citing progress in economic and
labor market growth and an improving risk outlook.” Story at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (Reuters)
“Oil prices rose up as much as 3 percent on Wednesday
after a third surprise weekly drop in U.S. crude stockpiles helped assuage
fears over a global oil glut. A weaker dollar .DXY after the Federal Reserve's
decision to leave U.S. interest rates unchanged and an oil workers' strike in
Norway that threatened to cut North Sea crude output further boosted oil.”
Story at…
CASS FREIGHT INDEX (CASS Information Systems)
“August’s Cass Freight Index continued to signal that
overall shipment volumes (and pricing) are persistently weak, with increased
levels of volatility as all levels of the supply chain (manufacturing,
wholesale, retail) continue to try and work down inventory levels.” Press
release at…
My cmt: Shipments were down 1.1% and Expenditures were
down 6.3% on a year-over-year basis. This isn’t inspiring and both data-series
continue to deteriorate.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was up about 1.1% to 2163 at
the close.
-VIX was down about 16% to 13.3 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 1.67%.
Quite a few indicators are signaling a bullish move from
here: Smart Money (last hour trading) is looking up and has switched to a
bullish stance; Money Trend reversed to the upside, although just barely; New-highs
are bouncing from their lows; Chart wise, the S&P 500 bounced from its
lower trend line and is headed up; VIX has pulled back.
All in all, since the Index is just coming out of a
correction I think we go up from here based on the reversals of indicators I’ve
mentioned. Overall, my sum of 16-indicators improved from -7 to -2.
Assuming indicators remain looking up, I’ll add to
long-term and short-term stock investments.
SHORT TRADE
I’ve closed short positions.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) improved to 49.1% Wednesday. It was 46.7% Tuesday. A number below
50% is usually BEARISH for the markets short-term.
On a longer term, the 150-day moving average of advancing
stocks climbed to 55%. A value above 50% generally indicates an up-trend. The McClellan Oscillator improved from -25 to
+12 (percentage calculation method).
New-highs outpaced New-lows. The spread (new-highs minus
new-lows) improved to +52 Wednesday. (It was +7 Tuesday.) The 10-day moving average
of the change in spread was -18. In other words, over the last 10-days, on
average, the spread has decreased by 18 each day. (Overall, New-high/new-low
data still points down, but its rate of decline slowed.)
Market Internals switched
to neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday the Price indicator was positive. Volume, VIX
& Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall the long-term indicator remained
HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I reduced stock allocation
to 30% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Wednesday, 14 Sep in my
long-term accounts based on the Sell signal on 13 Sep. I’ll increase to 50%
invested Thursday.
