FOMC MINUTES (Bloomberg)
“U.S. central bankers debating the merits of raising
interest rates last month described the decision as a close call, with several
saying a rate hike was needed “relatively soon,” minutes of the September
meeting showed... “The probability of a rate hike is very likely by the end of
the year,” said Randall Kroszner, an economics professor at the University of
Chicago Booth School of Business and a former Fed governor.” Story at…
NFIB BUSINESS OPTOMISM INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)
Commentary, charts and analysis at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.1% to 2139 at
the close.
-VIX rose about 4% to 15.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.78%.
S&P 500 is 1.1% below its 50-day Moving Average so that is a bit of a concern. The Index needs to climb from here or concerns will increase.
Volume was still down, about 15% below the monthly average; investors remain wary of this market.
The Index is near its lower Bollinger Band and the RSI is falling so perhaps we’ll see some buying soon.
A number of bearish indications remain: My sum of 16-daily indicators went from minus-5 to minus-6. This is a volatile series so I keep a 10-day sum and it dropped from -9 to -22 (not a moving average). Market Internals remained bearish.
Repeating yesterday’s comment: “In spite of the bearish signs, until the Index breaks below its lower trend line I don’t know where the market is going in the short-term. There are too many mixed signals. My guess is “up” because the lower trend-line held on a statistically significant down-day and late-day action was bullish on Tuesday.”
Long-term, I’m fully invested at 50% in stocks (a conservative-retiree allocation) – that’s hold my nose bullish.
TRADING PORTFOLIO
“Money-Trend” and my “Sum-of-all-indicators” both remain
trending down. I need some improvement (or declines in other indicators) before I can trade.
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE): 43.5%. (45.8% yesterday.) A number below 50% is usually
BEARISH for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: 53.7%. (A
value above 50% indicates a long-term, up-trend.)
-McClellan Oscillator: improved from -53 to -45
(percentage calculation method).
-New-highs minus new-lows: +2 (It was -7 yesterday.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: -9. In
other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased by 9
each day.
Market Internals remained
Negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday the Price, Volume, VIX & Sentiment
indicators were neutral. Overall the long-term indicator remained HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep in my long-term accounts
based on a number of indicators. Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This is a
conservative retiree allocation.
