“Monthly job openings — a gauge of the U.S. economy
that's closely watched by Fed chair Janet Yellen — were little changed in September,
the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Employers posted 5.5 million
job openings, a rate of 3.7 percent, in September. That's a slight increase
from the 5.4 million reported in August.” Story at….
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.4% to 2140 on the
day.
-VIX fell about 1% to 18.53 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.86%.
Short-term signals improved again and are headed up;
overall they are still negative, but I take this as a bullish sign. There was
late-day buying Tuesday and that’s 2-days in a row; that has not happened in a
while. That’s a bullish sign.
Monday’s high advancing-volume day was unusual and quite
bullish. Over 90% the volume was up on the day and the S&P 500 closed near
its high for the day. That’s a bullish
sign that generally bodes well for the future.
The Index bumped up to its upper down-trend line and may
have trouble breaking higher. It will
need to go higher, though, in order for more investors to jump on the band
wagon. My guess is that it will continue up, though probably not straight up. I
plan to add a long position in the trading portfolio based on the bullish signs
I noted above.
I have no idea what will happen tomorrow. A Hillary win
seems to be positive for the markets; a Trump win seems to be negative.
Sometimes Mr. Market has other ideas.
Either way, my most likely short-term scenario is up from here at least
for a week or two.
My guess is that the Senate and House will stay
Republican. If both were to go
democratic it could be an exciting day tomorrow.
I’m fully invested at 50% in stocks (a
conservative-retiree allocation) – I remain “hold-my-nose” bullish. Short-term worries appear to be resolving to
the bullish side.
TRADING PORTFOLIO
Car troubles interrupted my plan to go long today because
I didn’t get home until after the close.
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE): 43.3 %. (41.6 % yesterday.) A number below 50% is usually
BEARISH for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: improved to
52.9%. (A value above 50% indicates a long-term, up-trend.)
-McClellan Oscillator: improved from -55 to -22
(percentage calculation method adjusted to fit McClellan’s values).
-New-highs minus new-lows: +35 (It was +45 yesterday.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: -1. In
other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased by 1
each day.
Market Internals remained
Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday the Sentiment indicator was negative. The Price
indicator was positive.
VIX and Volume were neutral. Overall the long-term
indicator remained HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep 2016 in my long-term
accounts.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This is a conservative retiree allocation.
