“Sales of previously-owned homes rose modestly in
November as lean inventory and higher prices continue to choke the housing
market. Existing-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual 5.61 million
pace, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That was up 0.7% from
a downwardly-revised pace of 5.57 million in October and marks the highest
since February 2007.” Story at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (Reuter via CNBC)
“Oil edged lower on Wednesday, driven by a surprise rise
in U.S. crude inventories as refineries hiked output and crude imports rose by
1.1 million barrels a day from the previous week.” Story at…
ATA TRUCKING (American Trucking Assoc.)
“American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally
adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index surged 8.2% in November…
Compared with November 2015, the SA index increased 5.7%,
the first year-over-year gain since August…‘While I think the November gain
overstates the strength in the freight market, I do believe we are seeing some
improvement that will continue into 2017…” Press Release at…
THE 8-BALL MARKET (SafeHaven)
“Cycles are shaping up for an important high just before
(or just after) Christmas (It is
decidedly so). In addition, the Bradley model shows a high in mid-late December (You may rely on it). If you feel like
turning to this popular children's' toy for advice, it is understandable if not
advisable. The Trump Rally has left many reliable indicators in the dirt but
remember... To everything there
is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven.” – Ed Carlson. Commentary posted at SafeHaven at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.25% to 2265
at the close. (Utilities were one of the few sectors that looked good today.)
-VIX fell about 2% to 11.27 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.55%.
Early morning trading today was about normal for the
month, but as the day progressed, it looks like everyone went home. Final
volume was about 25% below average.
Rather than listing bearish and bullish signs I think
I’ll just say, “Ditto again.” Indicators
continued to deteriorate and RSI was 80 (a sell point) at mid-day, but the
S&P 500 dropped later in the day and that pulled the RSI down to 77. Its still high and was a sell last week so no
need to make too much about it.
Short-term Indicators haven’t changed much.
For a list of bullish and bearish indicators see my
Monday blog at…
The signals still suggest a short-term top and I continue
to expect to see the Index fall 4-5% from its high.
Long-term I’m fully invested at 50% in stocks (a
conservative-retiree allocation). The long-term
trend remains up.
TRADING PORTFOLIO (Small-% of the total portfolio)*
2x Short S&P 500 (SDS): Established 6 Dec.
2x Short S&P 500 (SDS): Established 16 Dec.
NET: +8.7%
*I am not really happy doing this much trading, but I
need to rebuild the trading balance after holding my shorts too long after the
February correction. (I really should
follow my own indicators. My system is smarter than I am!)
I plan to hold my short position (SDS-ETF) thru the
Holidays – the indicators just look too bad.
As I noted yesterday, VIX is beginning to look attractive (below 12),
but my “calm-before-the-storm indicator is not giving a buy signal for the VIX
so I’ll hold off for now.
CURRENT RANKING OF 11 ETFs (Ranked Daily)*
#1 RANK for the past 30-days: Financial Select Sector
SPDR ETF (XLF).
#2 RANK: iShares Russell 2000 – Small Cap (IWM)
#3 RANK: Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)
*For background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page
at…
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE): 51.3%. (54.2% yesterday.) A number above 50% is usually
BULLISH for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: 53.1%. (A
value above 50% indicates a long-term, up-trend.)
-McClellan Oscillator: Rose from +73 to +46 (percentage
calculation method adjusted to fit McClellan’s values).
-New-highs minus new-lows: +118
(It was +171 yesterday.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: -29. In
other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased by 29
each day.
Market Internals
remained NEGATIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday the Sentiment, Volume and VIX indicators were
neutral. The Price indicator was positive. (I had this wrong yesterday, but it didn't affect the overall rating.) Overall
the long-term indicator remained HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep 2016 in my long-term
accounts.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This is a conservative retiree allocation.
