“Orders for U.S. durable goods fell in May for the third time
in four months, held down by Boeing’s struggles with its suspended 737 Max jet.
Yet business investment perked up in a somewhat reassuring sign that companies
haven’t frozen spending amid a tense trade fight with China and signs of a
slower U.S. economy. Orders for long-lasting goods slid 1.3% last month…
CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)
“A day after the American Petroleum Institute pushed oil
prices higher by estimating an
inventory draw of as much as 7.55 million barrels for last week, the Energy
Information Administration reported a draw of 12.8 million barrels in crude oil
inventories, pushing prices further up significantly.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.1% to 2913.
-VIX slipped about 0.4% to 16.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.049%.
In a recent switch, Cyclical stocks are now
out-performing the S&P 500 on a 10-day basis, a bullish signal. Utilities are
still out-performing relative to the S&P 500 (a bearish sign), but the
S&P 500 made a big jump up today relative to Utilities, on the same 10-day
basis. O the whole, this suggests that this pullback may not get too much
farther.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -5 to -3 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations dropped from +21 to +13. (These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late.) Most of these indicators are short-term.
I remain bullish.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10
Today’s Reading: 0
Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 24
June (RSI was bearish.)
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy
Sign.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have
made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy
on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until
the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a
trade every 2-weeks on average.
My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in
stocks as of 4 June 2019. This is based on the improved indicators 3 June and
my recommendation to increase stock holdings if we saw strong buying on 4 June.
As a retiree, I am conservatively positioned with a balanced portfolio. You may be comfortable with a higher % invested
in stocks – that’s OK.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, the PRICE indicator was positive; VOLUME, VIX
and SENTIMENT indicators were neutral. Overall the Long-Term Indicator remained
NEUTRAL.
