EMPLOYMENT REPORT (Reuters)
“U.S. job growth rebounded strongly in June, with
government payrolls surging, but persistent moderate wage gains and mounting
evidence the economy was losing momentum could still encourage the Federal
Reserve to cut interest rates this month…Nonfarm payrolls increased by 224,000
jobs last month …” Story at…
ATA TRUCK TONNAGE FELL 6% IN MAY (ATA)
"American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally
adjusted (SA) For Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 6.1% in May after jumping 7% in April...Compared with May 2018, the SA index increased 0.9%, the smallest year-over-year gain since April 2017." Press release at...
RALLY NOT COMPLETE (Heritage Capital)
“Stocks continue the traditional holiday week drift
higher. The S&P 500 has made fresh all-time highs and I expect the Dow and
NASDAQ 100 to follow suit very shortly… the rally in stocks still does not seem
complete.” - PAUL SCHATZ, PRESIDENT, HERITAGE CAPITAL. Commentary at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.2% to 2990.
-VIX rose about 6% to 13.28.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.037%.
As I noted Wednesday, I was a little surprised to see the
advance continue for 5-days straight without a down-day. That streak ended
today. Volume was about 30% lower than the monthly average, so a lot of traders
were on vacation after the holiday. That makes today’s data a little suspect.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +5 to -1 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations declined from +2 to -4. (These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late.) Most of these indicators are short-term.
Looking at the chart, I think the S&P 500 can get to
3100 before we see significant weakness and even then, it might just be a 3-5%
retreat. Markets look reasonably solid to me.
I remain bullish.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10 (Zero is a
neutral reading.)
Today’s Reading: 0
Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 3
July (Bollinger Band, top-indicator was bearish.)
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy
Sign.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals slipped
to NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have
made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy
on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until
the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a
trade every 2-weeks on average.
My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in
stocks as of 4 June 2019. This is based on the improved indicators 3 June and
my recommendation to increase stock holdings if we saw strong buying on 4 June.
As a retiree, I am conservatively positioned with a balanced portfolio. You may be comfortable with a higher % invested
in stocks – that’s OK.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Friday, the PRICE and VIX indicators were positive;
the SENTIMENT and VOLUME indicators were neutral. Overall the Long-Term
Indicator remained BULLISH.
