“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
“In my decades of investing experience, I have not seen
such mindless and uninformed speculation as I have witnessed
recently. Indeed, in nominal dollar terms...it is far in excess of the
dot.com boom.” – Doug Cass.
“I never imagined that I would see the day that the
Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee would step forward to call for raw [Supreme]
court packing. It is a sign of our current political environment where rage
overwhelms reason.” - Professor Jonathan Turley, honorary Doctorate of Law from
John Marshall Law School for his contributions to civil liberties and the
public interest.
NTSM A PHISHING SITE? NO! JUST MORE POLITICAL FOLLY
I was surprised Friday when I couldn’t access my blog and
saw a phishing warning instead. I contacted Google and they quickly resolved
the problem. My blog site was apparently reported as a phishing site, most
likely by an individual who was a Trump supporter and didn’t appreciate my blog
comments Wednesday and Thursday of last week. This is ironic, since I was a
Trump supporter in 2020, but not after the election. Let me explain again.
I do not believe the “stolen election” scenarios promoted
by Trump and many Republicans. Why? Here
are a few reasons: (1) Trump was well behind in the polls before the
election. Why would anyone be surprised
that he lost? (2) The Wall Street Journal is a right leaning paper and they
supported Trump for 4 years. When he
claimed he had won the election, WSJ refuted the former President and exposed
the many stolen-election claims as false. When a right-wing newspaper
repudiates a right-wing President, I believe them. (3) I also studied many of
the stolen-election claims and spent a lot of time on fact-checking sites such
as Snopes and USA Today. Their conclusion was clear: Trump lost and claims
otherwise were simply false. (4) Trump’s team filed over 50 lawsuits and lost
every one of them, some in courts where judges had been appointed by Trump.
The conclusion is obvious to me; Trump is lying when he
claims the 2020 Presidential was stolen from him.
Others seem to agree; current polling data is not in
Trump’s favor. As noted in the WSJ over the weekend, “An NBC News poll last
month had only 32% of respondents with a favorable impression of Mr. Trump.
More interesting, it had his numbers falling among Republicans themselves.” It
should be obvious that if he runs again, he would lose again. Since he has lost
the center, his loss would be by a larger margin.
I have posted election links before and here’s another 2020
election resource by the non-partisan Campaign Legal Center (CLC) with links to
other fact-checking sites:
https://campaignlegal.org/update/compiling-truth-resource-refute-trumps-stolen-election-lies
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (Advisor Perspectives)
“This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing
Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 24.3
was a decrease of 2.0 from the previous month's 26.3. The Investing.com forecast
was for a reading of 23.9... Both input prices and selling prices rose at a
record-setting pace.” Analysis at...
MOST PROFITABLE COMPANY IN THE WORLD (RIA)
“It is unlikely that reported earnings growth will meet
analyst’s current expectations. Downward revisions this year are highly
likely. But, as long as the Fed remains active in supporting asset
prices, the deviation between fundamentals and fantasy will likely continue to
stretch extremes...While investor appetites for risk remain robust in the
short term, history suggests that such “willful blindness” leads to
terrible outcomes.” Commentary at...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-most-profitable-company-in-the-world-isnt-who-you-think/
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website
as of 6:00pm Monday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 dipped
about 0.3% to 4163.
-VIX rose about 5% to 19.72.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury rose to 1.652%.
We didn’t get the high up-volume
day that would have given a very bullish sign. I haven’t seen too many strong signs
either way.
The S&P 500 is 12.3% above its 200-dMA (Sell point is
12%.); when Sentiment is considered, the signal is also bearish. This value was
15.9% above the 200-dMA when the 10% correction occurred in Sep 2020.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators
improved from -4 to -2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish);
the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from -35 to
-38 (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend
following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. Volume, VIX, Price & Sentiment are neutral.
I am at a conservative stock-allocation of only 40% in
stocks because I took profits in both Boeing and Intel due to their dropping
out of the top 3 in momentum in recent weeks. Well, I didn’t see panic selling,
but I still didn’t like the price action Monday so I decided to wait before
adding to stocks. Perhaps Tuesday.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following
analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term
trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
As of 19 April, my
stock-allocation is about 40% invested in stocks. I hadn’t intended to drop
this low, but I took profits in both Boeing and Intel due to their dropping out
of the top 3 in momentum. I’ll move back in when conditions appear more
favorable.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees. As a
retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a
cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%;
if a correction is deep enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out
of the question.
The markets have not
retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the
bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.
