“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (FoxBusiness)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped
to a new pandemic low last week as the job market continues to recover from the
coronavirus pandemic. Figures released Thursday by the Labor Department show
that applications for the week ended Nov. 13 fell to 268,000 from a revised
269,000 a week earlier.” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/initial-jobless-claims-november-13
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)
“Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow,
according to the firms responding to the November Manufacturing Business
Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general
activity, shipments, and new orders all rose from October’s readings.” Commentary
at...
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Conference Board via PR Newswire)
“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for
the U.S. increased by 0.9 percent in October to 118.3 (2016 = 100), following
a 0.1 percent increase in September and a 0.7 percent increase in August. ‘The
U.S. LEI rose sharply in October suggesting the current economic expansion will
continue into 2022 and may even gain some momentum in the final months of this
year," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The
Conference Board. ‘Gains were widespread among the leading indicators, with
only the average workweek and consumers' outlook making negative contributions.’”
Press release at...
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 6:15 PM Thursday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily
numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily numbers
in Green. I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to the chart.
New cases are exceeding 100,000. That’s above the daily
averages we have been seeing. Going up! Hope it doesn’t last!
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 4705.
-VIX rose about 3% to 17.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at
1.592%.
Today the S&P 500 made a new high, but only 3.5% of
issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs. That’s not a bear signal yet, but it
is not far from it. It is a worrisome sign that shows a lack of Breadth.
Internals looked pretty bad today, especialy for an all
time high: only 35% of issues advanced on the NYSE; only 29% of the volume was
up; 108 issues made new 52-week lows today while only 118 issues made new
highs. A week ago there were nearly 300 new-highs.
Other bearish issues noted yesterday remain, and there
was another Hindenburg Omen today. The last time there was a cluster of Omens,
the Index dropped about 5% so the indicator’s name may be a little overblown.
We still have the “calm-before-the-storm” indicator that
suggests a 1-3% one-day drop coming within the month. So, vigilance is
important. If that happens at the bottom
of the trendline, I’d consider it a buying opportunity. For now, indicators
continue to fall.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -9 to -8 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -1 to -11 (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble slipped to HOLD. Price is bullish; VIX, Volume & Sentiment are
neutral.
Still looks like markets are
in a pullback – internals look bad.
I expect It to be relatively small, but at least one indicator is warning
that may not be the case. If investors start worrying about inflation, markets
could get rattled.
I am not bearish yet, but it’s
hard to be overly bullish now...we’ll see. Friday’s weekly run-down of
indicators should be interesting.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
Carter Worth just did a
presentation on CNBC’s Fast Money that showed he expects WTI crude to fall
further. It’s already down 9%. XLE has dropped
about 4% in the last 10-days. Momentum has slipped. I’ll take profits in XLE
Friday - then we'll see.
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
**Home Depot (HD) gained 5.7%,
0.6% and 2.8% over the last three days and has moved ahead in momentum.**
I’ll sell Salesforce (CRM)
Friday and wait to see what happens with the markets. Pullback or not?
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained SELL.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 50% invested in stocks; this is my “normal” fully
invested stock-allocation.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
