“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“…if you don’t stimulate the immune system in the
mucosae, you don’t obtain mucosal immune responses...It is very important that
mucosal immunity [for Covid] can only be achieved by administering a vaccine
intranasally, not intramuscularly.” - Pierre Charneau, Head of the Molecular
Virology and Vaccinology Unit at the Pasteur Institute.
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in December, with
the overall economy achieving a
19th consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply
executives in the latest Manufacturing
ISM® Report On Business®...“The U.S. manufacturing sector
remains in a demand-driven, supply chain-constrained environment, with indications
of improvements in labor resources and supplier delivery performance. Shortages
of critical lowest-tier materials, high commodity prices and difficulties in
transporting products continue to plague reliable consumption.” Report at...
JOLTS – JOB OPENINGS (YahooFinance)
“Demand for workers in the U.S. remained historically
elevated in November, with job openings holding near an all-time high and the
number of individuals quitting their jobs reaching a record amid the ongoing
pandemic. Vacancies totaled 10.562 million in November...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jolts-job-openings-labor-department-november-2021-150154251.html
TRUMP’S TEXAS AUDIT FINDS LITTLE (msn.com)
“Texas Republicans have failed to find any substantial evidence of
outcome-altering fraud in the 2020 presidential election after leading a
months-long recount at Donald Trump's behest...Specifically, the audit
unearthed only 509 possible duplicate votes – less than 0.005% of the
approximate 11.3 million ballots cast in the state. Further, only 67 votes were
cast under the names of voters who were deceased.” Story at...
My cmt: Trump held Texas in 2020 with 52.1% of the vote, roughly the
same percentage he carried it with in 2016. This audit is a complete waste of
time.
IVERMECTIN (GAVI – The Vaccine Alliance, April 2021)
“Both the National Institutes of Health and the European
Medicines Agency judged, on the basis of [prior] studies, that there is
currently insufficient evidence to support the use of ivermectin in treatment
of COVID-19. More studies are underway. A large, multicentre trial began in February to determine
the effectiveness of ivermectin as well as metformin (an anti-diabetes
medication) and fluvoxamine (an antidepressant) in preventing COVID-19 disease
progression. It would therefore be premature to conclude absolutely that
ivermectin has no place in COVID-19 treatment. On the basis of current
evidence, however, its use cannot be recommended.” – Gordon Dent, Senior
Lecturer in Pharmacology, Keele University
https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/ivermectin-why-potential-covid-treatment-isnt-recommended-use
That was last April.
Needless to say, those studies have not panned out. I’d look for a
proven medicine, say Plaxovid, rather than an unproven one.
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily
numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily
numbers in Green. I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to the
chart.
There were over one-million new cases today. This is
about 4x the max cases at prior highs. I
happened to drive past the hospital today.
Cars were lined up for miles in several directions, presumably for Covid
testing.
I am still sick with remnants from Omicron. No fever, but congestion and coughing remain.
I am improving. Today is day 9.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 4794
-VIX rose about 2% to 16.91
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.653%.
I see only 1 topping indicator giving a negative sign, so
it seems like this advance can continue.
“Officially,” the Santa Clause rally ends after the
second day in January, so now we’ll be watching the January numbers. A positive month means a positive year, so
they say. So far, we see improving numbers.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +3 to +6
today (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -10 to +8 (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around
a lot.
The Long Term NTSM indicator ensemble
remained BUY. Price & Volume are bullish; VIX & Sentiment are Neutral.
The Long-Term Indicator ensemble is designed to signal a buy after a bottom. Now, it is signaling that conditions are
good. The LT ensemble can be Buy at a top so it does not guarantee that now is
the best time to buy more stocks.
I am a cautious Bull.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals improved to BUY.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 50% invested in stocks; this is my “normal” fully
invested stock-allocation of 50%. I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio
using the momentum based analysis I provide here.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
