“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (CNBC)
“Initial jobless claims hit their highest level since mid-November last week, the latest sign that a historically tight labor market is beginning to slow, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Claims totaled 251,000 for the week ended July 16, up 7,000 from the week before...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/21/jobless-claims-rise-again-in-another-sign-that-labor-market-is-cooling.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 jumped up about 1.6% to 4155.
-VIX fell about 8% to 3.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.717%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.4% as of today. 23.6% max.
-Trading Days since Top: 146-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.3% Below its 200-dMA & closed 5.6% Above its 50-dMA. It also closed about 0.9% above its 100-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see
it.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SH, short the S&P 500 ETF.
SSO – 2x Long S&P 50 ETF.
The Big up-day Wednesday was a surprise. I am more likely to cover my short at this
point. I was out all-day and made no
changes to the portfolio Wednesday.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I wrote yesterday, “Good Bye, Market Rally. ‘...Who can hang a name on you? When you change with every new day. Still, I’m gonna’ miss you.’” Looks like Mick was a little premature. I thought the weakness over the last 2 days were important given the Fed’s hawkish comments. That was not the case.
The S&P 500 made another run at the 100-dMA and successfully
closed about 0.9% above that line of resistance. Now we’ll see whether the
Index can stay there. If it does, likely stop points for the rally, would be: at
the 50% retracement point (top to bottom), about 4240; the 200-dMA at 4342; or
4370, because that is the 62% Fibonacci retracement point for those who believe
in that sort of thing.
This market has been so strong it looks more likely that
the Index will reach its 200-dMA.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +6 to
+5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +104 to +96. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long
Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE, SENTIMENT & VOLUME are bullish; VIX
is neutral. I still expect the S&P 500 to test its prior low of 3667, but
it may be possible to trade this market now, but remember for the longer-term,
one indicator trumps them all – “Don’t fight the FED.”
I’m a Bear longer-term; short-term, the bulls took back control
of the markets. I think it is time to increase stocks holdings. Indicators are
almost all bullish. I’ll look to get back to about a 50% stock position in the
portfolio. How long that position remains depends on the market. The news has been bad, but the market is racing higher - that's incredibly bullish.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following
analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term
trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
“Initial jobless claims hit their highest level since mid-November last week, the latest sign that a historically tight labor market is beginning to slow, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Claims totaled 251,000 for the week ended July 16, up 7,000 from the week before...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/21/jobless-claims-rise-again-in-another-sign-that-labor-market-is-cooling.html
-Wednesday the S&P 500 jumped up about 1.6% to 4155.
-VIX fell about 8% to 3.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.717%.
-Drop from Top: 13.4% as of today. 23.6% max.
-Trading Days since Top: 146-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.3% Below its 200-dMA & closed 5.6% Above its 50-dMA. It also closed about 0.9% above its 100-dMA.
SH, short the S&P 500 ETF.
SSO – 2x Long S&P 50 ETF.
I wrote yesterday, “Good Bye, Market Rally. ‘...Who can hang a name on you? When you change with every new day. Still, I’m gonna’ miss you.’” Looks like Mick was a little premature. I thought the weakness over the last 2 days were important given the Fed’s hawkish comments. That was not the case.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
