“Extinguishing the beacon of liberty.” - Michael Ramirez,
Pulitzer Prize winner. Political commentary at...https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
“The S&P 500 is now down 6% on a closing basis and the NASDAQ 100 is down 8%. The opportunity I just wrote about on Monday evaporated quickly that day and we took action in both directions as I wasn’t willing to let small losses turn into large ones on new positions.
The magnitude of this pullback is stretching what I expected if this decline was to be the appetizer for the 7-9 week, 10%+ correction I saw coming in Q2 or Q3. More evidence is pointing to continued downside after a bounce that would satisfy my downside target of 10%. The building blocks are growing for a low, but price behaves like it needs to visit the 5500-5600 range...In short, I absolutely do not believe the 6% pullback is because of tariffs... Rather, as I have written, I think this is a growth scare. Look no further than granddaddy retailer, Wal-Mart...” - Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/eggs-or-energy/
“Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions. Consumer spending was lower on balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed with increased price sensitivity for discretionary items, particularly among lower-income shoppers.” Report at...
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202502-summary.htm
“Job growth was weaker than expected in February though still stable despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to slash the federal workforce. Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 on the month, better than the downwardly revised 125,000 in January, but less than the 170,000 consensus... The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/jobs-report-february-2025.html
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5770.
-VIX declined about 6% to 23.37.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.305%.
None
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to a Bearish -12 (12 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). The 10-dMA of the spread continued falling, but the rate of fall has slowed. It’s still bearish, but suggests a reversal may be in the works.
I am bearish with a very conservative allocation of only about 30% invested in stock holdings. As for a bottom – I’ll follow the market action Monday and see if we get any new information. I am not convinced yet, but increasing stock positions some may be a good move.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
