Wednesday, March 4, 2026

ADP Employment … ISM Non-Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
HERITAGE CAPITAL BLOG
“… after 38 years in the business, I have seen my fair share of military actions. The most obvious reaction is usually obviously wrong. People scramble to buy oil, sell stocks, buy gold, buy bonds and buy the dollar. My inclination is to pause and either do nothing or do the opposite. Whatever the media harps on the most, I tend to go opposite.” - Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital. Blog at…
 
BANK OF AMERICA SAYS AI WON’T DESTROY THE ECONOMY (The Street)
“BofA’s economists believe the current AI panic misrepresents how economies evolve….History shows us that mechanized agriculture displaced millions of farm jobs, constricting that sector to just 40% of U.S. employment in the early 1900s to about 1% today. Nevertheless, the overall GDP grew at a remarkable pace as new industries surfaced.
In fact, BofA argues that AI will help deliver meaningful productivity gains, functioning more like a supply shock… What’s interesting is that despite all the talk about technological disruption, the recent labor-market softness isn’t clearly AI-driven.” Story at…
 
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP via PR NewsWire)
"We've seen an increase in hiring and pay gains remain solid, especially for job-stayers," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "But with hiring concentrated in only a few sectors, our data shows no widespread pay benefit from changing jobs. In fact, the pay premium for switching…
Private employers added 63,000 jobs in February. Hiring jumped in February, delivering the best showing for job gains since July 2025. Construction and education and health services led the growth.” Press release at…
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“The services sector is heating up, with the Business Activity, New Orders, and New Export Orders indexes at their highest levels since 2024, and the Backlog of Orders Index with its best reading since July 2022 (58.3 percent).” Report at… 
 
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6870.
-VIX declined about 10% to 21.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.094% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -12 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
“When missiles fly, it’s time to buy” or so some pundits claim. I think that’s a little too pat.  Markets have been weak for several months. It’s hard to say that markets will shrug off weakness because there’s a war going on. Today’s move was on low volume. I’m still cautious.
 
Some support levels are: The 100-dMA is 6835; S&P 500 6800, the level of recent lows.  The 200-dMA of the S&P 500 is 6574, about 4.5% below today’s close.  Another level of support is 6550, the 19 November low. My guess is that the S&P 500 will drop to its 200-dMA around the 6550-6570 level.
 
As noted yesterday, it seems like markets are doing terribly, but the S&P 500 is only 1.6% below its all-time high. The problem is that it is no higher than it was at the end of November.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term, but I am not expecting a crash. I’ll hold my current stock positions unless indicators suggest otherwise. I would need to see a lot more deterioration in Breadth before I adjust stock holdings.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
MORGAN STANLEY – Markets will “catch down” (The Street)
“In a recent CNBC interview, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson laid out his blunt two-word verdict on what he feels is happening beneath the surface of the S&P 500.  He argues that even though the index may feel it’s stuck in a relatively tight, give-and-take range, a stealth correction is already well underway. The issue is that the damage isn’t propping up in the headlines…He says that there’s a head-turning 68% spread between the top 50 and bottom 50 stocks year-to-date (the largest in two decades)… the S&P 500 [should] “catch down,” which means that the index would reflect the weakness that we’re already seeing in the average stock.” Story at…
 
CRASH COMING? (The Telegraph)
“Mr Blankfein, who ran Goldman from 2006 until 2018, said the financial system appeared to be moving towards another catastrophe as a result of the boom in private credit, a corner of the market often referred to as shadow banking. He criticized private credit lenders for attempting to encourage retail access at a time when they are most unstable.” Story at…
My cmt: Maybe, but indicators are not currently suggesting a crash
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.9% to 6817.
-VIX rose about 10% to 23.57.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.067% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -2 to -12 (12 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations turned down – a BEARISH indication.
 
Some new bear signs were:
- A New Hindenburg Omen.
-The Fosback short-term Hi/Lo Logic Index.
-The S&P 500 is 1.3% below the 50-dMA and it has been for three days in a row suggesting a trend reversal down.
-The S&P 500 broke below its lower trend line.
-The S&P 500 dropped below its 100-dMA
 
Not all the news was bad.
Tuesday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time,
 
Looking at support levels. The S&P 500 is essentially at 6800 now.  We’ll have to see if that level holds. The 100-dMA was broken today. The 200-dMA of the S&P 500 is 6570, about 3.8% below today’s close.  Another level of support is 6550, the 19 November low. My guess is that the S&P 500 will drop to its 200-dMA around the 6550-6570 level.
 
It seems like markets are doing terribly, but the S&P 500 is only 2.3% below its all-time high.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish on the markets in the short-term, but I am not expecting a crash. I’ll hold my current stock positions unless indicators suggest otherwise. I would need to see a lot more deterioration in Breadth before I adjust stock holdings.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Monday, March 2, 2026

ISM Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
TEHRAN—In a surprise attack that has rattled the White House, on Saturday morning the Iranian Air Force dropped unredacted copies of the Epstein files on the U.S. Standing in front of a banner reading, “OMISSION UNACCOMPLISHED,” Iran’s spokesman said that its aircraft dropped the files over most major media outlets in the U.S. but skipped CBS and CNN. “Like Bari Weiss is going to run with this story?” he scoffed. “Good one.”
The spokesman added that Iran had not bothered to drop the files over the U.S. Capitol, stating, “We have seen no evidence that Congress still exists.” – Andy Borowitz.
 
U.S. SAW CHANCE TO KILL TOP OFFICIALS (WSJ)
“Israeli and U.S. military intelligence had long watched and waited for a rare opportunity: senior political and military leaders in Iran holding a meeting—where they could all be killed at once. The day finally came Saturday… 
…The moment was so unique that U.S. and Israeli warplanes struck in full daylight…
…Israel also said it had killed a number of other top political and military officials including Ali Shamkhani, a top security adviser to Khamenei; Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh.” Story at…
 
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the second straight month but only the third time in 40 months, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.” Report at…
 
-Monday the S&P 500 was little changed at 6882.
-VIX rose about 8% to 21.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.048% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was flat – a NEUTRAL indication.
 
Even the air strikes on Iran made very little impact on the markets. In the past, these actions have produced short-term declines. That was certainly true during the first Gulf War. Markets dropped at first and later recovered. Today, markets were down at the open. Apparently, investors saw the morning weakness and decided to buy the dip. As the daily chart shows, the S&P 500 recovered all of its opening losses.
 
A lot of questions remain about oil prices and transportation routes. Investors may reconsider buying. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more weakness. Indicators have been going nowhere as has the S&P 500 and Futures are down as I write this.
 
Unless indicators show a lot more negativity, I will not be selling stocks. I cut leveraged funds at a small profit before all this started and at the same time, I trimmed technology issues.
 
Levels of support remain. On the S&P 500, they are: 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.7% above the 100-dMA and 4.8% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain a nervous neutral on the markets. I am HOLD on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Saturday, February 28, 2026

PPI … Chicago PMI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
PPI (CNBC)
“The core producer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8%, more than the 0.6% gain in December and well ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.3%.” Story at…
 
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) climbed to its highest level in nearly four years in February, rising 3.7 points to 57.7. This reading came in above the projected 52.0 and marks the second straight month regional business activity has expanded.” Analysis at…
 
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 6879.
-VIX rose about 7% to 19.86.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.949% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +4 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
The S&P 500 is 1.4% below its all-time high back in mid-January. Small corrections (<10%) on average last about a month top to bottom; Corrections >10% last about 2-1/2 months with major bear markets lasting 200+ days. We don’t seem to be in a correction, but markets haven’t been consistent so far this year. Markets do have sideways corrections where they are directionless for several months.  That is a more positive view than the possibility that this weakness might be a prelude to a big correction.
 
My indicators mostly look at the here and now. For now, I don’t see a major correction. Breadth has been generally ok since the beginning of the year, but all is not well with markets. The S&P 500 has now fallen slightly below its 50-dMA and the Bearish Ascending Wedge remains so there is still a concern that the markets could slip into correction.
 
If they do, levels of support on the S&P 500 are 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.7% above the 100-dMA and 4.9% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain a nervous neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Thursday, February 26, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

 

Political Cartoons From Dick Wright

Dick Wright has been an award-winning editorial cartoonist for decades, drawing for the San Diego Union, the Providence Journal, Scripps-Howard Newspapers and the Columbus Dispatch.
 
“It didn’t take Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) long to start turning Virginia into California. And by “California,” I don’t mean the fantastic weather. No, Spanberger is turning Virginia into the “Golden State” by implementing policies that will likely be a buzz killer for businesses. At least one major player has announced that it is relocating. But it’s a big one: Boeing.
The problem is that Spanberger ran as a female version of John Fetterman, the centrist senator to the north in Pennsylvania. But since she was sworn in on Jan. 17, she has been governing as Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA).” Story at…
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 6909.
-VIX rose about 4% to 18.63.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.004% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +2 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
CNBC reported, “Nvidia shares dropped 5% on Thursday, as investor concerns around its leadership in the artificial intelligence boom dampened enthusiasm over its earnings beat. The company reported stellar quarterly results, but the numbers were not enough to assuage Wall Street amid an already fragile time for stocks.” 
 
Nvidia nearly doubled its revenue! It was up more than 5% in after-hours trading yesterday, but then faded and continued the fade today. It finished down more than 5%. This suggests that we may finally get the correction that markets have been flirting with. Does it start Friday? Not if the pattern of up and down price we’ve seen recently continues. Further, indicators are not overly negative, although today there was a new bear sign.
 
Today there was another Distribution Day. That’s 6 Distribution days in the last 5 weeks. Here’s what Investor’s Business Daily says about that:
“A distribution day in the stock market occurs when a major index (like the S&P 500 or Nasdaq) closes down by 0.2% or more on higher volume than the previous session. It signifies heavy selling by institutional investors, with 4–6 such days over a 4 to 5-week period often signaling a potential market top or reversal.”
 
My indicator uses 6 or more distribution days in 5-weeks as a bearish indicator. As noted before, markets are not out of the woods yet.
 
The S&P 500 is 1% below its all-time high. It has now bounced slightly above its 50-dMA. That’s a positive sign, but the Bearish Ascending Wedge remains so there is still a concern that the markets could slip into correction.
 
If they do, levels of support are 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 1.2% above the 100-dMA and 5.4% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain a nervous neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)


My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
Political Cartoons From Dick Wright
Dick Wright has been an award-winning editorial cartoonist for decades, drawing for the San Diego Union, the Providence Journal, Scripps-Howard Newspapers and the Columbus Dispatch.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
AMERICAS BILLS WILL COME DUE (WSJ)
“The first law of holes: When you’re in one, stop digging. The Trump administration didn’t get this memo. Despite America’s large and deepening budget deficit, President Trump has endorsed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s request for a $500 billion increase in annual appropriations for the 2027 military budget. Administration officials are reportedly at odds about how to spend this money… the path to fiscal responsibility must begin now, in the 2027 budget… They shouldn’t enact spending for defense—or any other item—that raises the budget deficit above the baseline. Nor should they enact new tax cuts that raise the deficit. This is what it means to stop digging.” William A Galston, WSJ Opinion writer, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. Opinion at,,,
 
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6946.
-VIX declined about 8% to 17.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.058% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -8 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Indicators have been flopping back and forth recently so they aren’t helping too much.
 
The S&P 500 is only 0.5% below its all-time high. It has now bounced above its 50-dMA. That’s a positive sign, but the Bearish Ascending Wedge remains so there is still a concern that the markets could slip into correction.
 
If they do, levels of support are 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 1.7% above the 100-dMA and 6.1% above the 200-dMA.
 
For now, all we can do is watch the chart; markets are not out of the woods yet.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am remaining a nervous neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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