“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
NY TIMES SAYS DEMS RECRUITED SPOILERS IN ALASKA
(YahooNews/Reuters)
“Democrats recruited potential spoilers in Alaska's US
Senate race, the New York Times reported on Wednesday. Aides to Mary Peltola,
the Senate Democratic nominee, worked with the campaign's lawyers and senior
staff at Senate Democrats' campaign arm to recruit two candidates who are on
the ballot and could siphon votes from incumbent Republican US Senator Dan
Sullivan, according to the Times.” Story at…
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/democrats-recruited-spoilers-alaska-senate-181107256.html
My cmt: I have never seen the TY Times criticize
Democrats. As a left-leaning paper, if the Times says the Dems did it, I
believe the Times.
“Looming large.” - Michael
Ramirez, Las Vegas Review-Journal. From…
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/cartoon-growing-threat-3906814/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=topnews&utm_source=opinion_michael-ramirez&utm_term=CARTOON%3A%20Growing%20threat
FEDERAL DEBT 100% OF GDP (WSJ)
“The U.S. national debt reached 100% of gross domestic
product for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, hitting the triple-digit mark
for the first time since 1946…
… The outlook is rough. Social Security is projected to
reach insolvency in 2032, triggering automatic benefit cuts unless Congress
acts. Net interest costs, the most immovable object in the budget, are
projected to climb by more than 1% of GDP over the next decade, according to
CBO.
And that forecast from earlier this year assumed interest
rates well below today’s prevailing rates. If all interest rates are 0.1
percentage point above CBO’s forecasts, that adds $379 billion in interest
costs over a decade.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/federal-debt-hits-100-of-gdp-585d3cb0
WHERE ARE THE FISCAL HAWKS (WSJ-Excerpt)
“France could be a sign of what awaits. Its debts and deficits are in the same league as the U.S.,
although its economy is weaker. Attempts to curb spending have brought down
four prime ministers in three years. As investors lost hope of any fix, they
began dumping French bonds, sending yields soaring and slowing an
already weak economy. So what happened to Washington’s fiscal hawks—the
political leaders concerned about debt and prepared to curb red ink? They hit a
wall of indifference and retired, lost elections, changed the subject or became
doves…
… With fiscal hawks largely gone from the halls of power,
it’s not clear who or what will bring them back.
“Voters say they care about the deficit, but very, very
few will accept higher taxes or spending cuts to get there,” said Jessica
Riedl, a longtime Republican budget aide who is now an analyst at the Brookings
Institution…
…Perhaps if another G-7 country experiences enough pain,
U.S. leaders will move, said Michael Faulkender, a University of Maryland
finance professor who was a senior Treasury Department official during both
Trump administrations.
“Is it going to be Great Britain or is it going to be
France that fails first? And is that finally going to be the wake-up call?” he
said. “I hope we can learn from somebody else going through that scenario as
opposed to us having to live it.” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/fiscal-hawks-national-debt-midterms-gdp-8b7a950d
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM via PRNewswire)
"The Manufacturing PMI® registered
55.5 percent in October, 1 percentage point above the September figure of
54.5 percent. The overall economy expanded for the 24th month in a row. (A
Manufacturing PMI® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time,
generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-55-5-october-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302925617.html
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Reuters)
“US construction spending tumbled in September, nearly
reversing the prior month's upwardly revised jump, likely because high
materials costs depressed outlays on residential renovation projects.
The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday
that construction spending fell 1.9% after an upwardly revised 2.0% increase in
August.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-construction-spending-tumbles-september-2026-11-02/
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7541.
-VIX rose about 9% to 21.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.912%
(compared to about this time most recent trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced
position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from -6 to zero (Equal Bull indicators and Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, reversed
higher, a BULLISH sign.
I was tempted to cut some stock holdings today, but the
CNBC noon crowd talked me out of it. They said that the election is a clearing
point and that stocks have been up after the mid-terms 20 out of 21 times or
something like that.
Where is the S&P 500?
- 3.5%
below its all-time high
- 2% below
its 50-dMA
- 1% below
its 100-dMA
- 3.1%
above its 200-dMA
As I check today’s data, we note some interesting news. At
today’s (Monday’s) new-low, volumes were lower than the prior-low on Friday. This
suggests a decline in selling pressure. In addition, underlying market
internals improved and that suggests the bottom is in, or close. Looks like it may be time to buy, not sell.
In addition, we note that Bollinger Bands are
oversold/bullish. RSI is very close to oversold. I use Bollinger Bands and RSI
together so these indicators are also suggesting a bottom. Reversals in
new-high/new-low data suggest a bottom too.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Bullish, but sometimes these signals are early, or
less often, wrong. I’ll watch to see how markets act. I’d like the markets (other
investors) to confirm my buy-signal. If buying is strong late in the day, I’ll
add to stock holdings.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 55%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
CHICAGO PMI (INDEXBOX)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index has declined,
indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity across the Chicago region,
according to Investing.com. The index registered 55.3, below the forecast of
55.8 and down from the prior month's reading of 58.8. The reading remains above
the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction, so the data point to
continued growth at a slower pace rather than an outright contraction.” Story
at: https://www.indexbox.io/blog/chicago-pmi-falls-to-553-missing-forecast-and-signaling-slower-manufacturing-growth/
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.8% to 7580.
-VIX rose about 13% to 19.42.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.933%
(compared to about this time most recent trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced
position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +2 to -6 (6 More Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BEARISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, is reversed
lower, a BEARISH sign.
Looks like my concerns from yesterday were well founded.
The weak earnings from Intel, Google and Amazon Thursday were enough to rattle
markets and led to Friday’s selloff. I
was busy today and didn’t follow the market as I had planned; I made no moves
in stocks.
But I am glad I sold my QLD position and most of my NVDA positions
3-weeks ago.
Where is the S&P 500?
- 3.3%
below its all-time high
- 1.8%
below its 50-dMA
- 0.8%
below its 100-dMA
- 3.4%
above its 200-dMA
That 200-dMA is a point of strong support so that would
be a reasonable place for this decline to end. As of now, it looks like we are
in a correction; it is not over yet. Volumes Friday were higher than prior lows
suggesting increasing fear.
There were some bull signs:
Only 46 days in the last 100 have been up. That’s a
long-term bullish sign, but it is not a very timely indicator. It was a month early in calling the bottom of
the 25% decline in October of 2022.
Bollinger Bands are oversold/bullish. RSI is nearly
oversold, but not there yet. By those standards a bottom could be near. That would fit with a drop to the 200-dMA.
That is around the 29 July low at 7316.
We’ll need to see what happens next
week. Do indicators improve?
There is always the worry that this correction could fall more than 10%. That was the signal we got at the recent all-time high.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Bearish short-term. With an expectation that the
decline may only be another 3% or so lower, I am not planning to lower stock
holdings; but I suppose further large price declines could cause me to
re-evaluate.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 55%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
CRASH COMING? (Daily Mail)
“According to the tech analysts at Gartner, data centers
that run artificial intelligence need to generate $8.5 trillion in
revenue over the next four years to pay for themselves, but the companies that
own them are only expected to bring in $3.6 trillion over that period. That's a
gaping $5 trillion hole of missing revenue, about equal to all the money the US
government brings in from taxes and other sources in one year.
And if companies don't manage to come up with this
massive missing sum, a major market crash is all but inevitable, experts say.”
Story at…
Wall
Street flashes red as experts fear stock market crash is coming
My cmt: The worry is that this concern may be coming soon
– like in a few weeks. That fits the rising wedge pattern we see in the
charts. Let’s hope the fear is
overblown. Breadth has improved, but is still weak. That’s another sign that
this crash scenario is concerning.
GDP (CNBC)
"The U.S. economy grew at a 3.4% pace in the third
quarter, faster than expected.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/pce-inflation-report-september-2026-.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (WSJ)
“U.S. jobless claims were subdued again last week,
defying forecasts for an uptick as the labor market remains slow but sturdy.
The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits
was 194,000 in the week through Oct. 24, 1,000 lower than the revised 195,000
reported a week earlier…” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/u-s-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-edge-lower-0aee8b41
PCE PRICES (Yahoo Finance)
“A fresh reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred
inflation gauge showed prices heated up in September, solidifying expectations for an interest rate hike in
December. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 3.6%, in line with
expectations and up from 3.4% a month earlier.” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pce-inflation-prices-ticked-higher-in-september-keeping-expectations-for-a-year-end-fed-hike-143025383.html
My cmt: Core PCE (excluding food and energy) was also up
slightly and in line with expectations.
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 7720.
-VIX rose about 2% to 17.20.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.902%
(compared to about this time most recent trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced
position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from
-1 to +2 (2 More Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I
consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on
the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, is headed higher, a BULLISH
sign.
Watching the Chart: The S&P 500 is only 1.3% below
its all-time-high and 0.3% above its 50-dMA. The bearish, rising wedge-pattern
remains, but it can become a bullish sign if the Index can break above the
upper trend line. If it doesn’t break
higher, we are likely to see a rapid decline.
Breadth continues to slowly improve, but there are
warning signs today. After weak results from Intel, Google and Amazon Thursday,
one wonders whether we’ll see continued improvement.
Afterhours: Amazon was down about 8%; Intel was down 23%;
Alphabet (Google) was down 12%.
Those are big numbers. Markets don’t like surprises so
there are new uncertainties. Futures are down as I write this and perhaps fear
will pick up. That doesn’t tell us what to do – fear can signal the time to buy
or sell. When leaders like Amazon and Alphabet post big loses in a narrow (weak
breadth) market, it can be a time to sell.
I’ll try and post during the day if I make any portfolio
changes.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but leaning Bearish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of
Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when
it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 55%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
TRUMP DOJ REBUKED (AP News)
“The Justice Department on Tuesday failed to secure a
grand jury indictment against a former White House staffer who provided
dramatic but disputed testimony
against President Donald Trump before a House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol
insurrection, according to two people familiar with the matter… Republican
lawmakers had accused her of lying under oath in her explosive testimony in
2022 about Trump’s behavior on Jan. 6, when a mob of his supporters stormed the
Capitol to halt the
congressional certification of his
election loss to Democrat Joe Biden.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/cassidy-hutchinson-trump-indictment-65b19759933189cdebb164c5bd80649c
FED RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“The Federal Reserve held steady on rates at the
conclusion of its October meeting, maintaining its target range of 3.75% to 4%.
Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee dissented from the decision:
Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were in favor of
raising rates by a quarter percentage point.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7744.
-VIX declined about 3% to 16.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 5.011% (compared
to about this time most recent trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced
position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -1
(1 More Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider
+5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart
above) that smooths daily fluctuations, improved but continued down, a BEARISH
sign.
Same as Tuesday, if we look at only the Bull indicators,
we note that the 20-dMA of bull indicators continued higher today. That’s a
good sign. As I wrote yesterday, perhaps the long, stock-market malaise is
ending.
The S&P 500 is only 1% below its all-time-high and
0.6% above its 50-dMA. That’s the norm for the chart pattern. The bearish, rising
wedge-pattern remains, but it can become a bullish sign if the Index can break
above the upper trend line. If it doesn’t
break higher, we are likely to see a rapid decline.
Breadth has improved some, but overall, the indicators
are still in the doldrums, so I can’t feel bullish.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but concerned.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of
Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when
it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 55%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
Tuesday post – I got too busy to finish this yesterday.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
CODDLING PUTIN WON’T BRING PEACE (WSJ – Excerpt)
“While Vladimir
Putin ignores Mr. Trump’s call for an energy cease-fire and continues to
murder Ukrainian civilians, the U.S. president claims that Russia “has been
fine on Ukraine.” This is factually wrong, strategically naive and morally
bankrupt. His obsequious accommodation of Russia, rewarding the aggressor with
sanctions relief, won’t persuade Mr. Putin to stop. History shows that such
behavior emboldens Russia’s autocrat, who sees it as weakness… The good news
for Americans is that Senate Republicans oppose retreat and appeasement and
favor a strong defense. They support Ukraine. They support NATO. They
understand Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are enemies. And they want the
president to work with Congress to restore American primacy.” – Mitch
McConnell, Republican Senator, KY. From...
DURABLE GOODS (WSJ)
“Demand for U.S. durable goods was up in September,
according to data published by the Commerce Department. Total orders for
durable goods—which comprise goods meant to last three years or more—increased
$6.3 billion to $345.4 billion, following a 0.1% August increase.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/durable-goods-orders-rose-in-september-8e82e1cd
NEW HOME SALES (Journal.com)
“Sales of new US single-family homes fell in September,
partially reversing the prior month’s jump, as higher mortgage rates because of
the Middle East conflict depressed demand.” Story at…
https://journalrecord.com/2026/10/27/us-new-home-sales-slip-september-rising-mortgage-rates/
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board via PRnewswire.com)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose by 7.5 points to 91.7
(1985=100) in October, up from 84.2 in September (a slight upward revision)…
"Consumer confidence advanced in October, driven primarily by improved
perceptions of current and expected business conditions," said Fergus
McCormick, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board. "The
recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to
October. Yet, despite the increase in October, consumer confidence remained on
the long-term downward trend that's persisted over the past few years.
Consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six
months. This likely reflected higher price levels and persistent inflation,
which eroded consumers' purchasing power." From...
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose to 7723.
-VIX declined to 17.52.
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced
position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TUESDAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from -9 to -1 (1 More Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
down, a BEARISH sign.
If we look at only the Bull indicators, we note that the
20-dMA of bull indicators reversed higher Tuesday. That’s a good sign. Perhaps
the long stock market malaise is ending.
Patience appears to have paid off – the S&P 500 moved
back above its 50-dMA.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but concerned.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TUESDAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - MONDAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 55%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
When I heard Trump’s DOJ was suing about election
interference in Alaska, I thought, “Oh no, here we go!” Apparently, it’s more
nuanced than that.
DECOY DAN (WSJ - Excerpt)
“Democrats pulled a dirty trick by enlisting a decoy,
Daniel J. Sullivan [no party affiliation], to run against Republican Alaska
Sen. Dan S. Sullivan. Now they are indignant that the Trump Administration on
Thursday filed a lawsuit that calls attention to their subterfuge. Please spare
us the lectures about election interference… Democrats deny they are behind the
ruse, but their fingerprints are all over it. Daniel J. Sullivan voted for
Democrats in the prior three presidential elections and for Democratic nominee
Mary Peltola when she ran for the House. There’s evidence that a Democratic
consultant also helped launch his campaign… The lawsuit is a legal Hail Mary,
but its real purpose before the election is to educate Alaska voters now
beginning to pay attention about the Democratic trick. Who’s really undermining
trust in elections?” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-administration-lawsuit-alaska-senate-race-dan-sullivan-64bd9f90
My cmt: Daniel J Sullivan is a retired teacher who
formerly worked for the US Forest Service. He says he is running on his own
accord. It takes a lot of effort to get on a ballot in most states, but not
Alaska. Alaska does not require a petition of the state’s voters to be a
Senatorial candidate. Given that fact, it is surprising there aren’t more
candidates running. But I guess most Alaskans know that without an advertising
budget, there is no chance of being elected; so why waste the $300 filing fee?
JUSTICE KAGAN – DEMOCRACY (WSJ -Excerpt)
“Justice Kagan has to her credit mostly resisted the
vitriolic criticisms that her liberal colleagues, Sonia Sotomayor and Ketanji
Brown Jackson, have leveled against the Court’s conservatives… But this week,
in the heat of the midterm election, she couldn’t resist taking the majority to
task. “The court has . . . blinded itself to the very deleterious effects of
their rulings on how the political system works,” Justice Kagan said during a
discussion at Catholic University’s law school in Washington, D.C… Justice
Kagan also said in her remarks that the Court’s recent decision to limit the
use of race in drawing district lines discounted the damage to the districts of
black Democrats in the South. “The court kind of said, ‘Oh well,’” Justice
Kagan said.
No, it didn’t. The majority properly explained that
carving up districts by race is a sordid business that violates the
Constitution. It’s hard to see how guaranteeing a seat by race is democratic… Justice
Kagan is right that partisan gerrymanders at the current political moment are
reducing the number of competitive elections and “driving people away from the
center, toward the wings, toward the extremes,” as she put it. But that
dishonor belongs to the political classes, not to the Justices.” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/elena-kagan-democracy-gerrymandering-district-maps-judges-d9e4adec
NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Seeking Alpha)
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.07
in September, exceeding the -0.1 consensus and indicating increased economic
growth compared with August's -0.08 reading (revised from -0.04), according to
data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on Monday.” Commentary at…
https://www.tradingview.com/news/seekingalpha:72842de2f094b:0-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-swings-to-positive-territory-in-september/
DALLAS FED MFRG INDEX (Dallas Fed)
“Texas manufacturing output growth eased in October,
according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook
Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions,
fell 14 points to 15.8, but remained above its series average, indicating a
slower yet still solid pace of expansion.” Report at…
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2026/2610
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 7677.
-VIX declined about 5% to 18.39.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at
4.997% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced
position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from -10 to -9 (9 More Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued
down, a BEARISH sign.
We’ve seen 3 consecutive closes below the lower trend
line at the 50-dMA, but I have not sold yet. I guess I could be reducing stock
holdings, but declines have been very small and there have been some
improvement in breadth. I remain in a wait-and-see mode. Mr. Market has a way
of shaking out the weak hands. I don’t want to be a weak hand. The S&P 500
is only 1.8% below its all-time high.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but concerned.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 55%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
