Navigate the Stock Market: 2026

Thursday, July 2, 2026

Jobless Claims … Payroll Report … Durable Goods … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

Enjoy the Fireworks. Appreciate the 4^th and be safe. (As always, I don’t post when the stock market is closed.)

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” - Albert Einstein

JP MORGAN SIGNALS A DOT.COM LIKE WARNING (Markets Insider)
“Markets are flashing another parallel to the dot-com bubble, JPMorgan says. The bank's Jason Hunter pointed to one trend in particular in markets that looks similar to what happened to stocks in the months leading up to the dot-com crash. The signal has to do with the recent divergence in the AI trade, with hardware stocks separating from some of the biggest AI spenders in the market, Hunter wrote in a client note on Wednesday. Chip stocks have been on a tear for most of 2026….That performance differs from companies that have been among the most voracious spenders, many of which have been punished as investors air concerns about return on investment and whether AI will pay off from a monetization perspective.” Story at…
JPMorgan flags a warning quietly flashing in stocks that preceded the dot-com crash

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Advisor Perspectives)
“Initial jobless claims measure the number of people who file for unemployment for the first time in a given week. In the week ending June 27th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 219,000.” Commentary and charts at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/02/initial-unemployment-claims-down-1k-lower-than-expected?topic=buffer-etfs

PAYROLL REPORT (Yahoo Finance)
“The US economy added 57,000 jobs last month, fewer than economists had anticipated, government data shows. The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.2%, its lowest level in a year.” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/june-jobs-report-us-payrolls-rose-by-57000-missing-expectations-190000748.html

DURABLE GOODS (Crypto Briefing)
“The US manufacturing sector took a step back in May 2026, with new orders for durable goods falling $15.6 billion, or 4.5%...transportation equipment orders collapsed 14.0% in May…” Story at…
https://cryptobriefing.com/us-durable-goods-orders-fall-may-2026/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 was unchanged at 7483.
-VIX declined about 3% to 16.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly to 4.485% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Basic internals were good today, and that added to the improvement in the indicators. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +6 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher a BULLISH sign that is also important.

Today there was a bullish outside reversal pattern on the charts.
“A Bullish Outside Reversal is a two-day technical analysis candlestick pattern that signals a potential reversal of a downtrend, indicating that buyers (bulls) have taken control from sellers (bears). It occurs when the current session's price range completely engulfs the previous session's range, often appearing as a Bullish Engulfing pattern” – Investopedia.

Technology and semiconductor segments of the market continue to take it on the chin. This is disappointing, since I bet in those segments, and worrying. Worrying because in my experience when the leaders fail, markets fail. While that is an observation, the indicators continue to improve. This is one of those instances when one is best to ignore what you think, and follow what you see.

For fun, let’s check one of the high fliers that the market has decided to sell – Micron Technology:
“The company provides memory products, including dynamic random access memory components and modules, CXL-based memory, LPDDR components and modules, graphics memory, high-bandwidth memory, and data center memory products; multichip packages (MCP) comprising embedded multimedia card-based, universal flash storage-based, and NAND-based MCPs; and…” so on.

It was down 5.4% today and has dropped about 30% in the last week or so. One would suspect that it has a high PE? One would be wrong. Yahoo finance reports its trailing 12-month PE was a whopping 22. Those are trailing numbers. With higher future earnings expected it forward PE would be even lower. For comparison, the trailing PE of the S&P 500 is 27 according to Google AI. The chart would suggest that Micron has gone parabolic. Its earnings suggest its price is well justified. (The trailing PE for Nvidia is 30 per Yahoo Finance; high, but justified.)

If the markets do decide to follow the semis down, my indicators should give plenty of warning. Currently, they are not warning of trouble – they are getting more bullish. Let’s hope the semis join the market and move higher.

BOTTOM LINE
I am mildly bullish. I’ll feel better when the Technology and semiconductor segments begin to perform better.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

ISM Manufacturing … ADP Employment … Construction Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

SURRENDER TO IRAN...

TRUMP KNEW THE RISK OF IRAN BLOCKING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. HE STILL WENT TO WAR (WSJ-14 March 2026)
“Before the U.S. went to war, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told President Trump that an American attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Caine said in several briefings that U.S. officials had long believed Iran would deploy mines, drones and missiles to close the world’s most vital shipping lane, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.
Trump acknowledged the risk, these people said, but moved forward with the most consequential foreign-policy decision of his two presidencies. He told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait—and even if Iran tried, the U.S. military could handle it…The U.S. operation to wipe out Iran’s military capability “is quite literally intended to deprive them of their ability to close the Strait,” Leavitt [White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt] said.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/iran-oil-hormuz-blockade-trump-f96bdd53
My cmt: So far, it seems to me that we have not done a good job of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and now Iran is claiming sovereignty over the Strait, something they had not done before the conflict. The above article from March highlights how Trump misjudged the enemy, and now, it appears that he may be willing to give up too much to settle.

ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
““The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 53.3 percent in June, 0.7 percentage point lower than in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 20th month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI^® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)” Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/june/

ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP)
“Private sector employment increased by 98,000 jobs in June and pay was up 4.4 percent year-over-year according to the June ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab").” Report at…
https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-07-01-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-98,000-Jobs-in-June-Annual-Pay-was-Up-4-4

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (The San Joaquin Valley SUN)
“Overall construction spending in the U.S. edged up just 0.1% in May, with high mortgage rates and inflation dampening new home construction despite an increase in renovations.” Story at…
https://sjvsun.com/u-s/construction-spending-rises-slightly-as-homebuilding-lags/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7483.
-VIX declined about 0.8% to 16.59.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.481% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Basic internals were good today, and that added to the improvement in the indicators. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +1 to +6 (6 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a Bearish sign that is also important.

One big, new bull-sign:
The 5-10-20 Timer System signaled “buy” today. It is a chart crossover system.
From Trend Spider…
“ The strategy monitors the interaction of three specific EMA lengths:
·       5 EMA: The fastest, most reactive line to recent price changes.
·       10 EMA: The intermediate line tracking near-term momentum.
·       20 EMA: The slowest line in this setup, providing a baseline for the broader short-term trend.
A buy signal occurs when the faster averages cross above the slower averages, indicating an upward shift in momentum.
·       The 5 EMA crosses above the 10 EMA.
·       Both lines subsequently cross above the 20 EMA.”
Some think that this system is good enough to use exclusively. I don’t know. I have found that the bigger the number of indicators, the better are the results.

BOTTOM LINE
I am mildly bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Chicago PMI … Consumer Confidence … JOLTS … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

“One of the painful signs of years of dumbed-down education is how many people are unable to make a coherent argument. They can vent their emotions, question other people’s motives, make bold assertions, repeat slogans—anything except reason.” ― Thomas Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.

CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index cooled 6.0 points in June to 56.7, signaling an expansion in regional business activity for a second straight month. The latest reading was higher than the projected 55.7.” Commentary and charts at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/06/30/chicago-pmi-june-2026

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (AP News)
“The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose 0.6 point to 91.2 in June, a figure that is still below its year-ago reading of 95.2… The report suggests that consumer confidence is recovering only slowly from the hit caused by the Iran war.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/consumer-confidence-economy-inflation-da0a1dee651d3e36123e8e83622c4ac4

JOLTS – JOB OPENINGS (Investing Live)
“Looking at the report, the May data shows a stable labor market, with job openings, hiring, quits, and layoffs all largely unchanged, suggesting labor demand remains steady but is not accelerating nor decelerating.” Story at…
https://investinglive.com/news/jolts-job-openings-7594m-vs-7300m-estimate-20260630/

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7499.
-VIX declined about 7% to 16.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.455% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

Today’s chart looked good – almost straight up from left to right and closing near the high for the day. Indicators improved too.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -5 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a Bearish sign that is also important.

So far, not much movement in the 10-day moving average of indicators, but there was a decent move in the daily numbers. They are still neutral, but we can be encouraged that they moved higher.

Tuesday there was High-unchanged-volume. Some think that unchanged volume is a sign of a market reversal, in this case lower. This is not one of my indicators since it is often wrong.

The S&P 500 closed 1.6% above its 50-dMA.That’s a good sign.

BOTTOM LINE
It’s hard not to be bullish after the nice two-day bounce we’ve seen off the 50-dMA. Three is a charm, so they say. I’ll feel better if the rally continues.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, June 29, 2026

Dallas FED Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

WARREN BUFFET – HOW TO BALANCE THE BUDGET
"You just pass a law that says that any time there’s a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election…Now you’ve got the incentives in the right place." – Warren Buffet on CNBC

IRANIAN MISSILES/DRONES HIT THEIR TARGETS (WSJ)
“When the Iranian missiles and drones came for the nerve center of America’s naval operations in the Middle East, some of them hit their mark. The U.S. Navy base in Bahrain was repeatedly targeted between late February and June. Strikes that got through caused extensive damage, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of satellite imagery, social-media footage and interviews with current and former servicemembers—damage that the Pentagon hasn’t publicly acknowledged. Hit hard were the command headquarters and at least a dozen other buildings, along with two satellite communications terminals.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-us-naval-base-bahrain-e87bbca3
My cmt: It is not surprising that the US has not acknowledged the damage – don’t give your enemy free intelligence. But there are bigger concerns here. I commented earlier that “…the Trump Administration seemed to believe that air-strikes alone would topple the Islamic govenrment. That is a naïve and incompetant view.” Now it would appear that the US is not prepared for modern, drone war-fighting. We’ll catch up, but this just reminds us again that Hegseth (Secretary of War/Defense) is hopelessy out of touch. He pushed Trump into this war. It suprises me that he still has a job.

DALLAS FED (WFAA/ABC News)
“Texas factory production slowed down again in June, according to a report released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The Dallas Fed’s latest Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey shows that while local industrial activity is still growing, it is expanding at a below-average pace… Despite the slower growth and rising costs, broader perceptions of the economy remained fairly stable.” Story at…
https://www.wfaa.com/article/money/business/texas-factory-output-growth-slows-dallas-fed-report-reveals-new-economic-hurdles/287-155d4a61-5c20-43b9-b0cf-ba75453afc2e

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 7440.
-VIX declined about 4% to 17.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly to 4.378% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -2 to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a Bearish sign that is also important.

Worrisome bear signs: The Lowry Selling-Pressure minus Buying-Pressure indicator; New-High/New-low data; the Fosback Hi/Low Logic Indicator (another breadth indicator based on new-highs and lows); XLU – S&P 500 spread; 5-10-20 Timer, a moving average crossover system. It appears that these indicators could improve in a hurry if some of the data improves. So far, not much movement in the 10-day moving average of indicators. We’re still waiting to see if indicators will confirm today’s price action.

The S&P 500 closed 0.9% above its 50-dMA.That’s a good sign.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral until we see bullish confirmation from the indicators.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, June 26, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon

KEEP CAMERAS OUT OF THE SUPREME COURT (WSJ)
“The Senate Judiciary Committee unanimously advanced legislation last week that would require TV cameras in Supreme Court proceedings. When the legislation comes to a full vote, Senators should preserve judicial independence and safeguard public trust by keeping cameras out. Senators know all too well the jackassery that TikTokification encourages in the legislative branch. They shouldn’t turn the Supreme Court into a sister circus.” - Ben Sasse, Columnist, Free Expression, The Wall Street Journal. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/ben-sasse

DEMOCRATS SAY NO TO THE MILITARY (WSJ)
“The Trump Administration is asking Congress to refill U.S. military missile stocks after the war in Iran. Yet Democrats are saying no way, and they sound like JD Vance opposing aid for Ukraine when Joe Biden was President. Their argument is no better than Sen. Vance’s.” … “Democrats will not support tens of billions of dollars for Trump’s aimless war,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro, the top Democratic appropriator. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, eyes fixed on Tuesday’s progressive victories in New York primaries, added that “we should be lowering costs for the American people, not writing another blank check for Trump.” …Democrats can’t bring themselves to criticize Mr. Trump from the hawkish right, though it might help them win back voters who think the party is weak on national security. Apparently they’d rather settle for making the futile gesture of a nonbinding war powers resolution and winking at the Democratic Socialists of America.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/democrats-defense-funding-congress-pentagon-trump-administration-d86fc605?mod=opinion_lead_pos3

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.05% at 7354.
-VIX declined about 3% to 18.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.376% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is also important.

Basic internals were good today. Advancing issues were nearly twice declining issues; up-volume was more than twice down-volume; and new-52-week highs were well ahead of new, 52-week lows. That would normally produce positive results for the Indices, but that wasn’t the case today. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were all down.

Volume was very high today (Friday). The FTSE Russell re-balanced their various Indices. Thus, all of the ETFs following the Russell Indices must adjust their portfolios. Artificial high-volume days like today cause a lot of churn, but often don’t tell us much about what’s really going on. Since there was little change in indicators, that’s where I am today, still waiting for a definite break one way or the other.

The S&P 500 closed 0.1% below its 50-dMA. That isn’t much, but if it stays there on Monday that might suggest a trend-break down.

The McClellan Oscillator improved again reflecting the positive breadth I mentioned above.

I am still waiting to see if price action will follow the indicators higher.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, June 25, 2026

Durable Goods … National Activity Index … GDP … PCE Inflation … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

REFLECTING POOL VANDALIZED (The Guardian)
“…the president blamed the pool’s woes on “vandals”, who he claimed had taken “some form of knife or blade” and delivered a 250ft gash into the pool’s facade. By Monday, when Trump was still posting about the site, this alleged damage had grown into a “300 foot long gash”.” Story at…
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/22/what-happened-dc-reflecting-pool-vandalism-arrest-algae

TRUMP DROVE HIS MOTORCADE THRU THE REFLECTING POOL??!!!
This couldn’t be true, could it?
“Yes, the claim is true. In early May 2026, President Donald Trump's motorcade was driven through the drained and freshly painted Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. The administration and several news outlets confirmed that the heavy SUVs drove directly across the "American flag blue" sealant so he could inspect the project.” See Snopes at…
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-motorcade-reflecting-pool/
My cmt: So, Trump vandalized the project. Unbelievable!

YEAR END FORECAST (Moneywise)
“Financial firms such as Oppenheimer (1), Citigroup (2) and Goldman Sachs (3) have been raising their S&P 500 value predictions for 2026. Now one firm's optimism has topped them all. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, announced his 2026 S&P 500 forecast on Sunday: 8,250.” Story at…
Ed Yardeni just hiked his year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to the highest of any Wall Street forecaster. Why he says we're in the 'Roaring 2020s'
My cmt: That’s 12% higher than Wednesday’s close.

DURABLE GOODS (FxStreet)
“Durable Goods Orders in the United States (US) declined by 4.5%, or $15.6 billion, in May to $332.1 billion, the US Census Bureau reported on Thursday. This reading followed the 8.5% increase recorded in April and came in line with the market expectation.” Story at…
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-durable-goods-orders-decline-45-in-may-as-expected-202606251239

NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.10 in May from +0.19 in April.”

Charts and commentary at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/06/25/cfnai-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-economic-growth-may-2026

JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits in the week ending June 20 fell by 12,000 to 215,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. “ Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-6c38e6c91415403252f242c42cdfbc3e

GDP – FINAL (Reuters)
“The ⁠findings buttress recent economic data showing that the war did little apparent damage to the U.S. economic outlook, with job growth accelerating in recent months and consumption relatively unscathed… The U.S. economy grew at about a 1.6% annual rate over the first three months of the year.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-shock-nicked-us-gdp-resilience-was-message-dallas-fed-research-finds-2026-06-23/

PCE PRICES (NBC News)
“The personal consumption expenditures index rose to 4.1% on a yearly basis, the highest reading since April 2023. Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, so-called core PCE measured 3.4%, the highest reading since October 2023.” Story at…
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/may-inflation-report-interest-rates-oil-rcna351636
My cmt: These numbers exceed Fed targets for its favorite inflation measures.

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 was little changed at 7357.
-VIX rose about 1% to 18.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.396% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -5 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations turned higher, a BULLISH sign that is also important.

The S&P 500 closed on the 50-dMA. The 50-dMA is important because it often represents the lower trend line.

Breadth indicators are still mostly ok. The most worrisome bearish indicator is the Fosback Hi/Low Logic Index. It warns when both new-highs and new-lows are elevated. It called the start of the Pandemic Bear Market to the day. The McClellan Oscillator has turned positive. That has negated the Hindenburg Omen and if it continues to improve will probably lead to a cancelation of the Fosback indicator too. The Hindenburg Omen uses analysis similar to the Fosback Indicator.

Note that today’s indicators have improved significantly compared to the 10 June low, so perhaps that divergence will portend good news for the markets. – STILL WAITING FOR THE GOOD NEWS ON PRICE ACTION, but we do note that indicators continue to improve.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)