Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Existing Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (NAR)
“Existing-home sales increased by 1.7% month-over-month in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report…Affordability improved for the eighth consecutive month, according to NAR’s Housing Affordability Index—increasing to 117.6 in February from 117.1 in January and 103.1 a year ago. This marks the highest level since March 2022.” Report at…
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 6781.
-VIX fell about 2% to 24.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.156% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down – a BEARISH indication.
 
There was no follow-thru from yesterday’s big reversal  Apparently investors remain worried about inflation and jobs.  Both recent data sets have been below expectations.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; the optimistic words coming from Trump that the war was close to conclusion are not borne out by U.S. actions – today was the biggest bombardment yet.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The image is a bar chart depicting the momentum percentile rank of various ETFs, with SPY, IWM DVY XLI, XLY, XLE, XLF, IBB, XLV, ITA, XLK, XLB, XLU, and IEFA SCHE being compared, showing their performance relative to each other. AI-generated content may be incorrect.
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

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