The NTSM analysis switched to BUY today. The VIX, Volume, and Sentiment indicators are
all positive today. VIX and Volume are
the two most reliable indicators and they just turned positive. Sentiment has been a Buy since mid-August.
I went 100% long in the trading portfolio
today in the early-afternoon. It’s hard
not to chase this rally and re-enter the stock market with long-term (401k)
money in the morning, but it is possible that we might make a few percent by
waiting and buying on a pullback.
At the end (bottom) of the last correction
(July of last year) there were 8-days that were up or flat and the market moved
up 7% before there was even one down day.
We have only had 3-days up so far from the 1099 low, but we are already
up 6% so we have conflicting information.
My inclination is to just buy back in. If Europe is going to backstop the European
Banks who have loaned Greece money (as reported today), the US Banks have less
risk and the S&P may climb for a few more days in this relief rally. Cooler heads may layout and wait for a
pullback before buying back in.
The Yahoo S&P 500 volumes were reported
to be about 1/2 of the 20d-MA on Tuesday and Wednesday; that’s very low. I didn’t believe the data because the NYSE volumes
were twice their 20-dMA. That’s’ a huge
discrepancy. If the Yahoo data is right,
it would mean that there was a low volume test that I would interpret as a Buy
and we may not retest that level.
One cautionary note: if market conditions
deteriorate due to bad news, the NTSM system will switch back to sell. I suppose that is rather obvious, but the
markets look tenuous now – but then, they usually do near a bottom.
I sold on the 27 July sell signal at S&P 500 1301 and I am
defensively positioned with only a small amount of my portfolio invested in
stocks. (Zero stocks in the 401k.) I am
100% long in the trading portfolio.
Since
the NTSM system generated a BUY today, Thursday, I plan to go 100% long in the
long-term (401k) portfolio tomorrow (baring some huge event tomorrow - the jobs
data due out tomorrow morning?)
