Today, Thursday, the
S&P 500 closed up nearly 3.5% to 1285.
From
ABC News at http://abcnews.go.com/Business/gdp-grew-25-percent-boosted-consumer-spending-double/story?id=14821833
The GDP Grew 2.5 Percent in Third Quarter and the
strongest element of Thursday's GDP report was personal consumption. That news is better than news of the Greek “resolution.”
The first 2-quarters this year the US economy grew at a 0.9%
rate. Today's announced 2.5%-growth rate not as high as it should be
in a normal economy, but the improvement is impressive. Most importantly, it is above the 2% stall
speed that usually leads to recession.
"Clearly today's GDP report is indicative of an economy
that is extracting itself from a temporary soft patch, and not one that is
rolling into another recession," Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist
with Federated Investors, said.
From
TR Price, in a note to investors, T. Rowe Price Chief Economist Alan Levenson
wrote that many of the major problems that led to the 2007-2009 recession are
beginning to resolve themselves. He
expects that “…markets will stabilize over the next six months and allow the
underlying positive aspects of the U.S. economy to gain some traction.”
So here we are. Greece is
solved…again. (Just a reminder: this is
the 14th meeting of Europe’s leaders to “solve” the crisis.) Is it solved now? Only time will tell.
The following is from the NTSM 12 October blog-post: "Liz
Ann Sonders
(Senior
Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.)
said today that there could be an explosive upturn if we get good news,
because there’s a lot of money on the sidelines." After today's move I'd say that's why she get's the big bucks.
Price,
Volume and VIX indicators in the NTSM analysis are all buy. The only missing indicator is Sentiment and
sentiment has switched to Hold as investors have gotten more bullish so NTMS is
about as bullish as it could be at this point in the recovery.
On the year…NTSM system is up 14%. (The NTSM computer analysis is up 19%, but in
order to limit risk, I didn’t follow all of its advice.) The S&P 500 is up
2%.
The NTSM market analysis switched to back to BUY
today.
I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
