The
S&P 500 was up almost 3% today while the VIX fell 7%. The
S&P was up only 2-days in the last 10 so it was overdue for a
bounce.
Volumes
have been declining during the downturn since the end of October. To me, that indicates that, at worst, the
downturn (if it continues) will be a re-test of the prior low. If the S&P 500 declines to 1099, I expect
that the market will move up from there.
It is quite possible that we might not get down as low as 1099 again.
If
the S&P 500 was heading down toward a new low, volumes would have been
increasing as more investors started selling.
At best? Some are suggesting that
today was the beginning of the Santa Clause rally. That may be a bit premature, but I am still
reasonably bullish in the sense I think that the S&P 500 will be higher
before year end. 1275 by year end is not
impossible.
NTMS
is HOLD.
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
I
am 90% long in the trading portfolio.
Just
a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational
folks. Don’t do it unless you have a
high tolerance for risk.
