The
S&P 500 was down 0.4% to 1188 Tuesday.
We just can’t catch a break on the news. GDP was revised down to 2.0 from its previously reported value of 2.3%. It still shows a good progression, but Sam Stovall said that in all previous times that GDP has been 2% or less for 2-successive quarter the US has slipped into recession. Perhaps, but the news was not all bad. I heard some more detailed analysis on PBS. The downward revision was due to companies reducing their inventories and the commentator said that and that would likely be seen as a positive in the next quarter or two as businesses build back inventories.
Consumer
spending is up so those who claim the inventory declines are bad news (and in
some cases they are) will likely not be right this time around.
The
S&P 500 is 2.5% below 1218, its level on 1 November. Volume has continued to fall at each close
around that level and market internals have been rising. To me it looks like the S&P should be
moving up soon; still, the odds now are pretty good that we’ll see the S&P 500
test the 1099 level again. The only way
to avoid that outcome is for the bleeding to stop now.
The
Navigate the Stock Market analysis is still HOLD.
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
I
am 90% long in the trading portfolio. I
am over-committed (maybe I should be committed) considering that bad news.
Just
a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational
folks. Don’t do it unless you have a
high tolerance for risk.
