What Does Oil Know That Stocks Don't? | ZeroHedge
“With West Texas Intermediate crude oil trading…near
two year lows, while stocks remain within a few percent of their four-year
highs, one has to question just what it is that stocks believe about our bright
new future of growth and demand that the all-important energy markets do not…Between Europe's recession, last night's
dismal China PMI, and a significantly trending rise in US unemployment claims,
it seems more likely that the global demand picture painted by the oil market
is a better reflection of reality than the earnings/multiple picture painted by
the nominal price of US equities.” Additional chart at:
I am not a believer in the stock market right now. This market still seems to be
waiting for more news so I am very cautious.
MARKET
Friday, today, the S&P
500 was up 0.72% to 1335. The VIX fell
9% to 18.21. So we continue a trend of
wild swings in the VIX. The options boys
can’t decide whether a crash is around the corner; or, perhaps the market will
just slowly go up.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis remained
HOLD today. I wrote yesterday all the
indicators were neutral. That wasn’t
quite right. VIX was negative yesterday, but today it improved. Today, all indicators really are neutral.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain out of the market…
I reduced my stock holdings
to 30% (0% in stock in the 401k) at S&P 1358 after the SELL signal on 9 May
2012. (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right
side of this page). I cut my stock
position to 15% on 17 May in order to maintain a 10% gain in a
trading/longer-term position I had in the QQQ.
